CT scan the key to unmasking a solid pseudopapillary pancreatic neoplasm in blunt abdominal trauma.

SUMMARY: We present a previously healthy 13-year-old male, who sustained a handlebar injury after falling from his bicycle. The computerised tomography (CT) scan indicated a probable pancreatic neoplasm associated with a retroperitoneal haematoma which was, following resection, confirmed histologically to be a solid pseudopapillary neoplasm of the pancreas. These are rare tumours of the pancreas, especially in young males. The rarity of this neoplasm and the mechanism that led to its presentation make this an interesting and unique case.

Analysis of factors influencing the degree of accidental injury of bicycle riders considering data heterogeneity and imbalance.

Bicycle safety has emerged as a pressing concern within the vulnerable transportation community. Numerous studies have been conducted to identify the significant factors that contribute to the severity of cyclist injuries, yet the findings have been subject to uncertainty due to unobserved heterogeneity and class imbalance. This research aims to address these issues by developing a model to examine the impact of key factors on cyclist injury severity, accounting for data heterogeneity and imbalance. To incorporate unobserved heterogeneity, a total of 3,895 bicycle accidents were categorized into three homogeneous sub-accident clusters using Latent Class Cluster Analysis (LCA). Additionally, five over-sampling techniques were employed to mitigate the effects of data imbalance in each accident cluster category. Subsequently, Bayesian Network (BN) structure learning algorithms were utilized to construct 32 BN models after pairing the accident data from the four accident cluster types before and after sampling. The optimal BN models for each accident cluster type provided insights into the key factors associated with cyclist injury severity. The results indicate that the key factors influencing serious cyclist injuries vary heterogeneously across different accident clusters. Female cyclists, adverse weather conditions such as rain and snow, and off-peak periods were identified as key factors in several subclasses of accident clusters. Conversely, factors such as the week of the accident, characteristics of the trafficway, the season, drivers failing to yield to the right-of-way, distracted cyclists, and years of driving experience were found to be key factors in only one subcluster of accident clusters. Additionally, factors such as the time of the crash, gender of the cyclist, and weather conditions exhibit varying levels of heterogeneity across different accident clusters, and in some cases, exhibit opposing effects.

Traumatic abdominal wall hernia in childhood: a bicycle handlebar injury.

A female patient in her middle childhood presented to the paediatric emergency room (ER) after a bicycle accident with an abdominal impact on the bicycle handlebar. On physical examination, a painful ecchymosis on the upper left quadrant was the only abnormal finding. Abdominal ultrasound showed no intra-abdominal lesions, and the patient was discharged home after 24 hours under monitoring. Nine days after the accident, she returned to the ER due to the emergence of an abdominal mass around the area of impact. Abdominal examination detected a tender non-fluctuating mass on the epigastric and left hypochondrium, and abdominal ultrasound revealed a muscle and aponeurosis disruption of the rectus muscle, with fat herniation and cytosteatonecrosis. A conservative approach was chosen, with ambulatory follow-up. One month after the accident, the patient was asymptomatic, no abdominal mass was palpable, and an abdominal CT showed a reduction of the muscle disruption and hernial content.

Evaluating the reliability of automatically generated pedestrian and bicycle crash surrogates.

Vulnerable Road Users (VRUs), such as pedestrians and bicyclists, are at a higher risk of being involved in crashes with motor vehicles, and crashes involving VRUs also are more likely to result in severe injuries or fatalities. Signalized intersections are a major safety concern for VRUs due to their complex dynamics, emphasizing the need to understand how these road users interact with motor vehicles and deploy evidence-based safety countermeasures. Given the infrequency of VRU-related crashes, identifying conflicts between VRUs and motorized vehicles as surrogate safety indicators offers an alternative approach. Automatically detecting these conflicts using a video-based system is a crucial step in developing smart infrastructure to enhance VRU safety. However, further research is required to enhance its reliability and accuracy. Building upon a study conducted by the Pennsylvania Department of Transportation (PennDOT), which utilized a video-based event monitoring system to assess VRU and motor vehicle interactions at fifteen signalized intersections in Pennsylvania, this research aims to evaluate the reliability of automatically generated surrogates in predicting confirmed conflicts without human supervision, employing advanced data-driven models such as logistic regression and tree-based algorithms. The surrogate data used for this analysis includes automatically collectable variables such as vehicular and VRU speeds, movements, post-encroachment time, in addition to manually collected variables like signal states, lighting, and weather conditions. To address data scarcity challenges, synthetic data augmentation techniques are used to balance the dataset and enhance model robustness. The findings highlight the varying importance and impact of specific surrogates in predicting true conflicts, with some surrogates proving more informative than others. Additionally, the research examines the distinctions between significant variables in identifying bicycle and pedestrian conflicts. These findings can assist transportation agencies to collect the right types of data to help prioritize infrastructure investments, such as bike lanes and crosswalks, and evaluate their effectiveness.

Bicycle injuries: A systematic review for forensic evaluation.

Bicycles are employed as means of transportation across various age groups, from young students to the elderly, for work, education, health, and leisure trips. Despite not achieving high speeds, bicyclists remain vulnerable to severe and even fatal injuries when they are involved in traffic accidents. Although the rising awareness of ecological issues and traffic law enforcement mean that cyclists are increasingly susceptible to road traffic crashes and injuries. Injuries resulting from a traffic accident involving cyclists can show distinct and specific characteristics depending on the manner of occurrence. The aim of this study is to provide a systematic review of the literature on injuries sustained in cyclists involved in road accidents describing and analysing elements useful for forensic assessment. The literature search was performed using PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science from January 1970 to March 2023. Eligible studies have investigated issues of interest to forensic medicine about traffic accidents involving bicycles. A total of 128 studies satisfied the inclusion criteria and were categorized and analyzed according to the anatomical regions of the body affected (head, neck, thoraco-abdominal, and limb injuries), and the assessment of lesions in reconstruction of the bicycle accident was examined and discussed. This review highlights that injuries resulting from a traffic accident involving cyclists can show distinct and specific characteristics depending on the manner of occurrence and the energy levels involved in the crash. The assessment of injuries offers valuable insights that integrated with circumstantial and engineering data perform the reconstruction of accident dynamics.

Bicycle-related accidents in Rome: Investigating clinical patterns, demographics, injury contexts, and health outcomes for enhanced public safety.

INTRODUCTION: This study aims to analyze the clinical characteristics, demographic features, and injury circumstances of patients admitted to the Emergency Department (ED) at Fondazione Policlinico Universitario A. Gemelli (IRCCS) in Rome, Italy, due to bicycle accidents. METHODS: Data on clinical characteristics, accident timing, injury circumstances, and helmet use were collected for ED patients involved in bicycle accidents from January 2019 to December 2022. Subsequently, Abbreviated Injury Scale codes of all diagnoses were recorded and the Injury Severity Score was calculated. RESULTS: Over the study period, 763 patients were admitted to the ED following bicycle accidents, with a 0.3 % fatality rate and a 30.4 % frequency of multitrauma. Multivariate analysis revealed that collisions with other vehicles increased trauma severity and the risk of ICU admission. Conversely, helmet use was associated with reduced severity of head trauma and a lower likelihood of ICU admission. Notably, toxicological investigations were not conducted for any ED-admitted patients. CONCLUSIONS: Although a low mortality rate and a low incidence of multi-trauma have been shown in comparison to other nations, it is necessary to adopt prevention strategies like safety devices, more cycle paths, and better infrastructures on the one hand, and stricter laws on the other. It is essential to require toxicological testing in Italy for all accidents involving this means of transport, and to make helmet use compulsory for all ages.

The association between head injury and facial fracture treatment: an observational study of hospitalized bicyclists from a level 1 trauma centre.

PURPOSE: To compare the types of facial fractures and their treatment in bicyclists admitted to a level 1 trauma centre with major and minor-moderate head injury. METHODS: Retrospective analysis of data from bicycle-related injuries in the period 2005-2016 extracted from the Oslo University Hospital trauma registry. RESULTS: A total of 967 bicyclists with head injuries classified according to the Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) were included. The group suffering minor-moderate head injury (AIS Head 1-2) included 518 bicyclists, while 449 bicyclists had major head injury (AIS Head 3-6). The mean patient age was 40.2 years (range 3-91 years) and 701 patients (72%) were men. A total of 521 facial fractures were registered in 262 patients (on average 2 facial fractures per bicyclist). Bicyclists with major head injury exhibited increased odds for facial fractures compared to bicyclists with minor-moderate head injury (sex and age adjusted odds ratio (OR) 2.75, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.03-3.72, p < 0.001. More specifically, there was increased odds for all midface fractures, but no difference for mandible fractures. There was also increased odds for orbital reconstruction in cyclist with major head injury compared to bicyclist with minor-moderate head injury (adjusted OR 3.34, 95% CI 1.30-8.60, p = 0.012). CONCLUSION: Bicyclists with more severe head injuries had increased odds for midface fractures and surgical correction of orbital fractures. During trauma triage, the head and the face should be considered as one unit.

Unraveling the relation between cycling accidents and built environment typologies: Capturing spatial heterogeneity through a latent class discrete outcome model.

Today, cities seek to transition to more sustainable transportation modes. Cycling is critical in this shift, promoting a more beneficial lifestyle for most. However, cyclists are exposed to many hazardous circumstances or environments, resulting in accidents, injuries, and even death. Transport authorities must understand why accidents occur, to reduce the risk of those who cycle. This study applies a new modeling framework to analyze cycling accident severities. We employ a latent class discrete outcome model, where classes are derived from a Gaussian-Bernoulli mixture, applied to data from Berlin, and augmented with volunteered geographic information. We jointly estimate model components, combining machine learning and econometric approaches, allowing for more intricate and flexible representations while maintaining interpretability. Results show the potential of our approach. Risk factors are indexed depending on where accidents occurred and their contribution. We can discover complex relations between specific built environments and accident characteristics and uncover differences in the impact of certain accident factors on one environment typology but not others. Using multiple data sources also proves helpful as an additional layer of knowledge, providing unique value to understand and model cycling accidents. Another critical aspect of our approach is the potential for simulation, where locations can be examined through simulated accident features to understand the inherent risk of various locations. These findings highlight the ability to capture heterogeneity in accidents and their relation to the built environment. Capturing such relations allows for more direct countermeasures to risky situations or policies to be designed, simulated, and targeted.

Injury incidence and prevalence in elite short-course triathletes: a 4-year prospective study.

OBJECTIVE: To characterise the prevalence, incidence rate (IR) and burden of injuries in elite short-course triathletes over a 4-year training and competition period. METHODS: Fifty elite Australian triathletes were prospectively monitored for injury during four consecutive seasons (2018-2021). Injuries requiring medical attention were prospectively recorded and further subcategorised according to time loss. The IR and burden (injury IR×mean injury severity) were calculated per 365 athlete days, with sex differences in IR compared using IR ratios (IRR) from negative binomial regression models. RESULTS: Two hundred and sixty-six injuries were reported in 46 (92.0%) athletes, of which 67.3% resulted in time loss. The injury IR was 1.87 injuries per 365 athlete days (95% CI 1.70 to 2.80), and comparable between sexes (IRR 0.82, 95% CI 0.64 to 1.04, p=0.109). Most injuries (70.7%) were training related. The most frequently injured body sites were the ankle (15.8%), foot (12.4%) and lower leg (12.0%). Bone stress injuries (BSIs) were the most burdensome injury type with 31.38 days of time loss per 365 days (95% CI 24.42 to 38.34). Twenty athletes (40.0%) reported at least one bone stress injury (BSI) (range 0-3). The rate of BSIs in female athletes was three times greater compared with male athletes (IRR 2.99, 95% CI 1.26 to 7.07, p=0.013). CONCLUSION: Two-thirds of injuries reported in elite short-course triathletes resulted in time loss, with the majority occurring during training activities. Foot, ankle and other lower leg injuries had the highest incidence, with BSIs carrying the highest injury burden. The considerably higher rate of BSI observed in female athletes warrants consideration for future prevention strategies in female triathletes.

Electric Bicycle Injuries and Hospitalizations.

This cross-sectional study investigates injury trends associated with electric bicycles in the US from 2017 to 2022.

Comparison of two bicycle handlebar trauma cases.

Handlebar injury is an uncommon mechanism of blunt injury with a recognised risk of injury to groin vasculature. We describe two cases involving bicycle handlebar injury to the groin and their different respective outcomes. Patient A sustained a significant limb-threatening injury following significant arterial and venous disruption. Surgical intervention was able to restore arterial flow via interpositional vein graft, while venous injuries were ligated. As a result, the patient was discharged with a viable limb and a non-disabling swelling from venous pathology. Patient B, of identical age, also sustained a bicycle handlebar injury to the groin but without the need for surgical intervention. Active observation and the use of repeat imaging suggested spontaneous cessation of any minor arterial bleeding; the patient made a rapid recovery and was discharged soon thereafter. These cases highlight the variability in outcome stemming from this injury mechanism and that early recognition is vital for limb viability.

An Assessment of Sikh Turban's Head Protection in Bicycle Incident Scenarios.

Due to religious tenets, Sikh population wear turbans and are exempted from wearing helmets in several countries. However, the extent of protection provided by turbans against head injuries during head impacts remains untested. One aim of this study was to provide the first-series data of turbans' protective performance under impact conditions that are representative of real-world bicycle incidents and compare it with the performance of bicycle helmets. Another aim was to suggest potential ways for improving turban's protective performance. We tested five different turbans, distinguished by two wrapping styles and two fabric materials with a size variation in one of the styles. A Hybrid III headform fitted with the turban was dropped onto a 45 degrees anvil at 6.3 m/s and head accelerations were measured. We found large difference in the performance of different turbans, with up to 59% difference in peak translational acceleration, 85% in peak rotational acceleration, and 45% in peak rotational velocity between the best and worst performing turbans. For the same turban, impact on the left and right sides of the head produced very different head kinematics, showing the effects of turban layering. Compared to unprotected head impacts, turbans considerably reduce head injury metrics. However, turbans produced higher values of peak linear and rotational accelerations in front and left impacts than bicycle helmets, except from one turban which produced lower peak head kinematics values in left impacts. In addition, turbans produced peak rotational velocities comparable with bicycle helmets, except from one turban which produced higher values. The impact locations tested here were covered with thick layers of turbans and they were impacted against flat anvils. Turbans may not provide much protection if impacts occur at regions covered with limited amount of fabric or if the impact is against non-flat anvils, which remain untested. Our analysis shows that turbans can be easily compressed and bottom out creating spikes in the headform's translational acceleration. In addition, the high friction between the turban and anvil surface leads to higher tangential force generating more rotational motion. Hence, in addition to improving the coverage of the head, particularly in the crown and rear locations, we propose two directions for turban improvement: (i) adding deformable materials within the turban layers to increase the impact duration and reduce the risk of bottoming out; (ii) reducing the friction between turban layers to reduce the transmission of rotational motion to the head. Overall, the study assessed Turbans' protection in cyclist head collisions, with a vision that the results of this study can guide further necessary improvements for advanced head protection for the Sikh community.

Secular trends in the incidence and severity of injuries sustained by riders of electric bikes and powered scooters: The experience of a level 1 adult trauma center.

BACKGROUND: The incidence of injuries caused by electric bicycles (E-bikes) and powered scooters (P-scooters) continues to increase. Data on the severity of those injuries is conflicting. The purpose of this study was to explore secular trends in the incidence and severity characteristics of patients following E-bike and P-scooter injuries and predictors for major trauma. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study of patients aged ≥16 years following E-bike and P-scooter injuries was performed at a level 1-trauma center between 2017 and 2022. We explored secular trends in major trauma cases (primary outcome), emergency department (ED) visits, hospitalizations, and surgical interventions (secondary outcomes). Major trauma was defined by either an injury severity score (ISS) >15 or the patient's need for acute care, defined by any of the following: Intensive care unit admission, direct disposition to the operating room, acute interventions performed in the trauma room, and in-hospital death. Primary and secondary outcomes were compared between two time frames (2017-2018 vs.2019-2022). RESULTS: In total, 9748 patients were presented following P-scooter and E-bike injuries. Of them, 1183 patients (12.1%) were hospitalized (854 males [72.2%],median age 33 years, median ISS 9).During the study period, the number of ED visits increased by 21-fold, with a parallel increase hospitalizations and surgical interventions numbers, which increased by 3.4-and 3.8-fold, respectively. Numbers of patients with ISSs >15 and patients who required acute care sharply increased during the study period, but no significant differences were found in the percentages of patients with ISSs >15 (p = 0.78) or patients' need for acute care (p = 0.32) between early and late periods. A severity analysis revealed that male sex (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.7 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.2-2.4], p = 0.001) and E-bike riders compared to P-scooter riders (aOR 1.5 [95% CI:1.1-2.0], p = 0.005) were independent predictors for severe trauma. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of E-bike and P-scooter injuries sharply increased over time, with a parallel elevation in numbers of hospitalizations, surgical interventions, and major trauma cases. Major trauma percentages did not increase during the study period. Male sex and E-bikes emerged as independent predictors for major trauma.

Age, crash type and the changing patterns of cycling fatalities in Australia between 1991 and 2022.

BACKGROUND: Australia has made significant efforts in recent years to promote cycling. METHODS: Trends in cyclist fatalities in Australia between 1991 and 2022, particularly in those aged 60 years and over, were examined using Poisson regression modelling. RESULTS: Overall, cyclist fatalities decreased by 1.1% annually. However, while there was an annual decline of 2.5% in those aged <60 years, fatalities in the 60+ age group increased by 3.3% annually. Mortality rates also showed an annual decrease of 3.5% for cyclists aged <60 years but remained almost stable in the 60+ age group over the study period. Single vehicle fatalities increased markedly, particularly among the 60+ age group (4.4% annually). DISCUSSION: The observed increase in 60+ fatalities is due to the ageing of the population rather than a rise in cycling popularity as previously thought. The rise in single vehicle fatalities is likely to be related to the increase in the availability and use of dedicated cycling infrastructure.

Comparison of the number of pedestrian and cyclist injuries captured in police data compared with health service utilisation data in Toronto, Canada 2016-2021.

INTRODUCTION: Pedestrian and cyclist injuries represent a preventable burden to Canadians. Police-reported collision data include information on where such collisions occur but under-report the number of collisions. The primary objective of this study was to compare the number of police-reported collisions with emergency department (ED) visits and hospitalisations in Toronto, Canada. METHODS: Police-reported collisions were provided by Toronto Police Services (TPS). Data included the location of the collision, approximate victim age and whether the pedestrian or cyclist was killed or seriously injured. Health services data included ED visits in the National Ambulatory Care Reporting System and hospitalisations from the Discharge Abstract Database using ICD-10 codes for pedestrian and cycling injuries. Data were compared from 2016 to 2021. RESULTS: Injuries reported in the health service data were higher than those reported in the TPS for cyclists and pedestrians. The discrepancy was the largest for cyclists treated in the ED, with TPS capturing 7.9% of all cycling injuries. Cyclist injuries not involving a motor vehicle have increased since the start of the pandemic (from 3629 in 2019 to 5459 in 2020 for ED visits and from 251 in 2019 to 430 for hospital admissions). IMPLICATIONS: While police-reported data are important, it under-reports the burden. There have been increases in cyclist collisions not involving motor vehicles and decreases in pedestrian injuries since the start of the pandemic. The results suggest that using police data alone when planning for road safety is inadequate, and that linkage with other health service data is essential.

Risk Factors and Inequities in Transportation Injury and Mortality in the Canadian Census Health and Environment Cohorts (CanCHECs).

BACKGROUND: Road traffic injury contributes substantially to morbidity and mortality. Canada stands out among developed countries in not conducting a national household travel survey, leading to a dearth of national transportation mode data and risk calculations that have appropriate denominators. Since traffic injuries are specific to the mode of travel used, these risk calculations should consider travel mode. METHODS: Census data on mode of commute is one of the few sources of these data for persons aged 15 and over. This study leveraged a national data linkage cohort, the Canadian Census Health and Environment Cohorts, that connects census sociodemographic and commute mode data with records of deaths and hospitalizations, enabling assessment of road traffic injury associations by indicators of mode of travel (commuter mode). We examined longitudinal (1996-2019) bicyclist, pedestrian, and motor vehicle occupant injury and fatality risk in the Canadian Census Health and Environment Cohorts by commuter mode and sociodemographic characteristics using Cox proportional hazards models within the working adult population. RESULTS: We estimated positive associations between commute mode and same mode injury and fatality, particularly for bicycle commuters (hazard ratios for bicycling injury was 9.1 and for bicycling fatality was 11). Low-income populations and Indigenous people had increased injury risk across all modes. CONCLUSIONS: This study shows inequities in transportation injury risk in Canada and underscores the importance of adjusting for mode of travel when examining differences between population groups.

Evaluation of an Elastomeric Honeycomb Bicycle Helmet Design to Mitigate Head Kinematics in Oblique Impacts.

Head impacts in bicycle accidents are typically oblique to the impact surface and transmit both normal and tangential forces to the head, causing linear and rotational head kinematics, respectively. Traditional expanded polystyrene (EPS) foam bicycle helmets are effective at preventing many head injuries, especially skull fractures and severe traumatic brain injuries (TBIs) (primarily from normal contact forces). However, the incidence of concussion from collisions (primarily from rotational head motion) remains high, indicating need for enhanced protection. An elastomeric honeycomb helmet design is proposed herein as an alternative to EPS foam to improve TBI protection and be potentially reusable for multiple impacts, and tested using a twin-wire drop tower. Small-scale normal and oblique impact tests showed honeycomb had lower oblique strength than EPS foam, beneficial for diffuse TBI protection by permitting greater shear deformation and had the potential to be reusable. Honeycomb helmets were developed based on the geometry of an existing EPS foam helmet, prototypes were three-dimensional-printed with thermoplastic polyurethane and full-scale flat and oblique drop tests were performed. In flat impacts, honeycomb helmets resulted in a 34% higher peak linear acceleration and 7% lower head injury criteria (HIC15) than EPS foam helmets. In oblique tests, honeycomb helmets resulted in a 30% lower HIC15 and 40% lower peak rotational acceleration compared to EPS foam helmets. This new helmet design has the potential to reduce the risk of TBI in a bicycle accident, and as such, reduce its social and economic burden. Also, the honeycomb design showed potential to be effective for repetitive impact events without the need for replacement, offering benefits to consumers.

Effect of helmet use on maxillofacial injuries due to bicycle and scooter accidents: a systematic literature review and meta-analysis.

Maxillofacial injury is a common injury resulting from bicycle (including e-bike) and scooter accidents. With 80,000 admissions to emergency departments in 2019, bicycle accidents account for more than half of all traffic-related emergency department visits in the Netherlands. The United States reports approximately 130,000 injuries and 1000 fatalities related to cycling annually. This systematic review and meta-analysis was performed to examine the protective effect of helmets against maxillofacial injuries resulting from bicycle and scooter (including e-bike and e-scooter) accidents. After a systematic literature search, 14 studies were found to be eligible for this systematic review. Of these, 11 were included in the meta-analysis. None of the included studies focused on vehicles with motors (e-bikes and e-scooters); all focused only on non-motorized vehicles. All included studies were non-randomized, which could have led to bias in the pooled results. Data from the included studies were tested for heterogeneity using the binary random-effects model (DerSimonian-Laird method), and the odds ratio for the occurrence of maxillofacial injury in cyclists wearing a helmet versus those not wearing a helmet was calculated by random-effects meta-analysis. Patients who had worn a helmet suffered significantly fewer maxillofacial injuries than patients who had not, in bicycle accidents (odds ratio 0.682). In conclusion, wearing a helmet has a significant protective effect against maxillofacial injury, indicating the need for strict helmet legislation.

Safe System approach for cyclists in the Netherlands: Towards zero fatalities and serious injuries?

More than one third of all road deaths in the Netherlands and more than two thirds of seriously injured casualties are cyclists. In recent years these shares have increased, despite the fact that the implementation of Safe System principles has been leading in road safety policy and has been successful in reducing the total number of road deaths. However, the annual number of fatalities among cyclists failed to decline and the number of injuries among cyclists has been increasing, especially in single-bicycle crashes. This raises the question why until now Safe System implementation has failed to contribute to the reduction of the number of casualties among cyclists. This question is urgent because of the goal to reduce the number of road deaths and serious traffic injuries in the Netherlands to (virtually) ZERO by 2050. This ambition is in line with the objectives of the European Union. The causes of the unfavourable developments in road safety for cyclists in the Netherlands and which problems require a solution are examined. This raises two questions: can improved implementation of Safe System measures reverse the negative trend, and can this result in ZERO cycling casualties in the future. The discussion involves investigating three dimensions: exposure, crash risk, and injury risk. The opportunities that technological developments may offer in future decades are also considered. It is concluded that Safe System implementation will include opportunities to make cycling considerably safer in the Netherlands. However, we face too many uncertainties to allow for developing scenarios that show how close the Netherlands will be to ZERO cyclists casualties.