Modelling the economics of bovine viral diarrhoea virus control in pastoral dairy and beef cattle herds.

Bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV) is a prevalent pathogen in the New Zealand cattle industries, yet few studies to date have evaluated the economics of BVDV in pastoral dairy and beef herds to help inform management decisions. To address this knowledge gap, we developed stochastic individual-based simulation models to represent the transmission dynamics of BVDV in typical spring-calving dairy and beef farms in New Zealand. The models conservatively estimated the direct losses due to a BVDV outbreak at NZ$ 22.22 and NZ$ 41.19 per mixed-age cow per year for a naïve dairy and beef farm, respectively, over a 5-year period. The greatest economic impacts for the dairy farm occurred when persistently infected replacement heifers joined the lactating cow group and caused transient infection of cows to drop in milk production, whereas the greatest impacts for the beef farm was through the loss of fattening stock for sale due to lowered pregnancy rates. Various combinations of diagnostic testing, vaccination, and biosecurity measures were then explored to evaluate the cost-efficiency of different strategies for controlling BVDV at the farm-level. Providing farmers with the estimates of economic impacts of BVDV in their herds may further encourage the uptake of control measures, but close collaboration with a veterinarian to determine the optimal strategy for their unique farm circumstances is still required.

Epidemiological factors and mitigation measures influencing production losses in cattle due to bovine viral diarrhoea virus infection: A meta-analysis.

Infection with bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV) is associated with a loss in productivity in cattle farms. Determining which factors influence monetary losses due to BVDV could facilitate the implementation of mitigation measures to reduce the burden of BVDV. Mixed-effect meta-analysis models were performed to estimate the extent to which the costs of mean annual BVDV production losses per animal may be influenced by epidemiological factors such as BVDV introduction risk, initial prevalence, viral circulation intensity and circulation duration (trial 1). Additionally, changes in mean annual BVDV production losses per animal due to specific mitigation measures (i.e., biosecurity, vaccination, testing and culling, cattle introduction or contact with neighbouring cattle herds) were analysed (trial 2). In total, 19 studies were included in the meta-analysis to assess mean annual BVDV production losses. The mean annual direct losses were determined to be €42.14 per animal (trial 1). The multivariate meta-regression showed that four of the previously mentioned epidemiological factors significantly influenced the mean annual BVDV production losses per animal. Indeed, the per animal costs increased to €67.19 when these four factors (trial 1) were considered as "high or moderate" compared to "low". The meta-regression analysis revealed that implementation of vaccination and biosecurity measures were associated with an 8%-12% and 28%-29% decrease in BVDV production losses on average, respectively, when simulated herds were compared with or without such mitigation measures (trial 2). This reduction of mean annual BVDV production losses per animal due to mitigation measures was partially counteracted when farmers brought new cattle on to farm or allowed contact with neighbouring cattle herds. The influencing mitigation factors presented here could help to guide farmers in their decision to implement mitigation strategies for the control of BVDV at farm level.

Assessment of the cost effectiveness of compulsory testing of introduced animals and bulk tank milk testing for bovine viral diarrhea in Japan.

Bovine viral diarrhea (BVD) is a chronic disease of cattle caused by infection with BVD virus (BVDV) and can result in economic losses within the livestock industry. In Japan, the test and culling policy is a basic control measure, and implementation of an adequate vaccination program is recommended as a national policy. In addition, optional control measures, including compulsory testing of introduced animals and bulk tank milk (BTM) testing as a mass screening method, are used in several provinces, but their efficacy has not been completely assessed. We evaluated these control measures using the scenario tree model of BVD in Japan, developed in the previous study. The model outputs indicated that compulsory testing of all introduced cattle, rather than only heifers and/or non-vaccinated cattle, was cost effective and reduced the risk of BVDV introduction due to animal movement and that BTM testing could effectively monitor most part of the cattle population. Vaccination coverage and BVDV prevalence among introduced cattle could also affect the cost effectiveness of compulsory testing of targeted cattle, particularly under low vaccination coverage or high BVDV prevalence. However, even with the implementation of a highly effective monitoring scheme for many years, BVD risk could not be eliminated; it instead converged at a very low level (0.02%). Disease models with a cost-effective output could be a powerful tool in developing a control scheme for chronic animal diseases, including BVD, with the consent of relevant stakeholders.

Elimination of bovine viral diarrhoea virus in New Zealand: a review of research progress and future directions.

The major impacts of bovine viral diarrhoea (BVD) on cattle health and production have prompted many countries to embark on national elimination programmes. These programmes typically involve identifying and removing persistently infected (PI) cattle in infected herds and implementing biosecurity measures, such as pre- or post-movement testing. In order to design a systematic national control programme to eliminate BVD in New Zealand, which achieves the greatest benefits to the industries at the lowest cost to individual farmers, an accurate understanding is necessary of the epidemiology, economics and social motivation for BVD control in New Zealand. In this article we briefly review the pathogenesis of BVD, transmission and diagnosis of BVD virus infection, and effectiveness of vaccination. We summarise the current state of knowledge of the prevalence, risk factors for transmission, and financial impacts of BVD in New Zealand. We describe control programmes in Europe and then discuss the challenges that must be addressed to design a cost-effective national control programme to eliminate BVD in New Zealand.

A cost-benefit analysis and the potential trade effects of the bovine viral diarrhoea eradication programme in Styria, Austria.

This study evaluated the voluntary and compulsory implementation of a bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV) eradication programme in the Austrian Federal State of Styria, Austria, from an economic point of view using ex-post assessment of costs and benefits (disease losses avoided). An economic net benefit (benefit:cost ratio, BCR=1.18) of the programme was demonstrated during the voluntary programme phase (January 1998-July 2004). The break-even point was reached in 2003. If investments in the compulsory programme (August 2004-December 2016) were taken into account, a net economic loss (BCR=0.16) was demonstrated. In contrast to on-going annual testing of all cattle herds, annual testing in accordance with a revised sampling scheme could reduce total surveillance costs by more than 77%. A Bayesian structural time series model was applied to analyse a hypothesised positive impact of the compulsory BVDV programme on the Styrian cattle export market. The average number of exported cows and bulls increased significantly by 42% (P=0.03) and 47% (P=0.01), respectively, and the producer price increased by 14% (P=0.00) and 5% (P=0.16), respectively, during the compulsory programme period compared with the period prior to intervention. This equates to an average revenue increase of €29,754 for cows and €137,563 for bulls per month. These results justify the implementation of eradication programmes, which initially may not appear to be economically viable, particularly if trade effects are not included in the calculations.

Insights for the assessment of the economic impact of endemic diseases: specific adaptation of economic frameworks using the case of bovine viral diarrhoea.

Generic frameworks for the economic analysis of farm animal disease are now well established. The paper, therefore, uses bovine viral diarrhoea (BVD) as an example to explore how these frameworks need to be adapted to fit the characteristics of a particular disease and the specific objectives of the analysis. In the case of BVD, given the relative strength of tests available to correctly identify virus-positive animals, thus enabling them to be culled, the emphasis has been on cost-benefit analysis of regional and national certification/eradication schemes. Such analyses in turn raise interesting questions about farmer uptake and maintenance of certification schemes and the equity and cost-effective implementation of these schemes. The complex epidemiology of BVD virus infections and the long-term, widespread and often occult nature of BVD effects make economic analysis of the disease and its control particularly challenging. However, this has resulted in a wider whole-farm perspective that captures the influence of multiple decisions, not just those directly associated with disease prevention and control. There is a need to include management of reproduction, risk and enterprise mix in the research on farmer decision-making, as all these factors impinge on, and are affected by, the spread of BVD.

Les cadres généraux de l'analyse économique des maladies affectant les animaux d'élevage sont désormais bien établis. Les auteurs utilisent l'exemple de la diarrhée virale bovine pour définir les adaptations à apporter à ces cadres afin d'intégrer les caractéristiques d'une maladie donnée et les objectifs spécifiques de l'analyse. Dans le cas de la diarrhée virale bovine, compte tenu de la robustesse des tests disponibles pour détecter les animaux infectés (qui seront abattus), l'accent est mis sur l'analyse coûts-bénéfices des dispositifs régionaux et nationaux de certification sanitaire et d'éradication. Ces analyses soulèvent des questions intéressantes quant à l'engagement et à la persévérance des éleveurs à l'égard des dispositifs de certification et à la mise en oeuvre équitable et rentable de ces dispositifs. La complexité de l'infection due au virus de la diarrhée virale bovine et le caractère durable, répandu et souvent inapparent de ses effets rendent particulièrement difficiles les analyses économiques de cette maladie et de son contrôle. Ces analyses ont toutefois permis de mieux appréhender la situation dans la perspective d'une exploitation, en tenant compte des effets de décisions multiples qui ne se limitent pas à celles directement destinées à prévenir et à contrôler la maladie. La gestion de la reproduction, la gestion des risques et les choix de diversification doivent impérativement être intégrés dans la recherche sur les processus décisionnaires des éleveurs, car tous ces aspects affectent et sont affectés par la propagation de la diarrhée virale bovine.

Hoy en día ya existen modelos genéricos sobradamente contrastados para analizar en clave económica las enfermedades de los animales de granja. Partiendo de esta realidad, los autores utilizan el ejemplo de la diarrea viral bovina (DVB) para determinar el modo de adaptar esos modelos genéricos para que encajen con las características de una enfermedad en particular y con los objetivos específicos de un determinado análisis. En el caso de la DVB, teniendo en cuenta la relativa solidez de los ensayos existentes para identificar correctamente a los animales infectados (para su posterior sacrificio), los autores se centraron en analizar la relación costo-beneficio que presentan algunos dispositivos regionales y nacionales de certificación sanitaria o erradicación. Estos análisis, a su vez, abren interesantes interrogantes sobre el nivel de adhesión y perseverancia de los productores respecto de los programas de certificación y sobre el grado de equidad y rentabilidad con que se aplican esos dispositivos. La compleja epidemiología de las infecciones por el virus de la DVB y el carácter duradero, extendido y a menudo oculto de sus efectos dificultan especialmente el análisis en clave económica de la enfermedad y de las medidas para combatirla. Sin embargo, estos análisis han permitido aprehender desde una perspectiva más amplia la situación de la explotación en su conjunto, teniendo en cuenta la influencia de múltiples decisiones, y no solo de aquellas directamente relacionadas con la prevención y el control de la enfermedad. En toda investigación sobre el proceso decisorio de los productores es necesario tener en cuenta la gestión de la reproducción, la gestión de los riesgos y el tipo de actividades de la explotación, pues todos estos factores influyen en la propagación de la DVB y son influidos por ella.

Economic evaluation of the eradication program for bovine viral diarrhea in the Swiss dairy sector.

Since 2008, the Swiss veterinary service has been running a mandatory eradication program for Bovine Viral Diarrhea (BVD) that is focused on detecting and eliminating persistently infected (PI) animals. Detection was initially based on antigen testing from ear tag samples of the entire cattle population, followed by antigen testing of all newborn calves until 2012. Since then, bulk milk serology (dairy herds) and blood sample serology (beef herds) have been used for the surveillance of disease-free herds. From 2008 to 2012, the proportion of newborn PI calves decreased from 1.4% to less than 0.02%. However, this success was associated with substantial expenditures. The aim of this study was to conduct an economic evaluation of the BVD eradication program in the Swiss dairy sector. The situation before the start of the program (herd-level prevalence: 20%) served as a baseline scenario. Production models for three dairy farm types were used to estimate gross margins as well as net production losses and expenditures caused by BVD. The total economic benefit was estimated as the difference in disease costs between the baseline scenario and the implemented eradication program and was compared to the total eradication costs in a benefit-cost analysis. Data on the impact of BVD virus (BVDV) infection on animal health, fertility and production parameters were obtained empirically in a retrospective epidemiological case-control study in Swiss dairy herds and complemented by literature. Economic and additional production parameters were based on benchmarking data and published agricultural statistics. The eradication costs comprised the cumulative expenses for sampling and diagnostics. The economic model consisted of a stochastic simulation in @Risk for Excel with 20,000 iterations and was conducted for a time period of 14 years (2008-2021). The estimated annual financial losses in BVDV infected herds were CHF 85-89 per dairy cow and CHF 1337-2535 for an average farm, depending on the production type. The median net present value (NPV) was estimated at CHF 44.9 million (90% central range: CHF 13.4 million-69.4 million) and the break-even point to have been reached in 2015. Overall, the outcomes demonstrate that the Swiss BVD eradication program results in a net benefit for the dairy sector. These findings are relevant for planning similar BVD control programs in other countries.

Engaging veterinarians and farmers in eradicating bovine viral diarrhoea: a systematic review of economic impact.

Bovine viral diarrhoea (BVD) is a significant drain on efficient and successful cattle production in both dairy and beef systems around the world. Several countries have achieved eradication of this disease, but always through the motivation of stakeholders who accept the benefits of eradication. These include increased cattle welfare and fitness of cattle to withstand other diseases, and decreased costs of production, the latter resulting from both decreased costs spent on managing the disease and decreased losses. This paper provides a systematic review of 31 papers, published between 1991 and 2015, that address the economic impact of BVD. Each paper takes a different approach, in either beef or dairy production or both. However with the breadth of work collated, a stakeholder engaged in BVD eradication should find an economic figure of most relevance to them. The reported economic impact ranges from £0 to £552 per cow per year (£2370 including outliers). This range represents endemic or subclinical disease situations seen in herds with stable BVD virus infection, and epidemic or severe acute situations, most often seen in naïve herds. The outcome of infection is therefore dependent on the immune status of the animal and severity of the strain. The variations in figures for the economic impact of BVD relate to these immune and pathogenicity factors, along with the variety of impacts monitored.

A systematic worldwide review of the direct monetary losses in cattle due to bovine viral diarrhoea virus infection.

Bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV) is an important infectious agent of cattle worldwide that affects herd productivity and reproduction. In this systematic review of the impact of BVDV, studies were analysed with a particular focus on the monetary implications and types of direct losses, the initial infection status of herds, production systems, time periods of assessment, calculation level, study types and whether or not country-specific assessments were published. A linear mixed model was applied to analyse factors that influence the level of monetary direct losses due to BVDV infection. The 44 studies included in this review covered 15 countries and assessed direct monetary losses due to BVDV incurred over the past 30 years. Direct losses between and within countries were largely heterogeneous with respect to the monetary level and types of direct losses, ranging from 0.50 to 687.80 US dollars (USD) per animal.1 Average direct losses per naïve dairy cow were USD24.85 higher than per beef cow. Country-specific assessments of direct losses due to BVDV were provided in 38/44 (86.4%) studies. Mortality, morbidity, premature culling, stillbirths, abortion, reinfection, country and study type had a significant influence on the monetary level of direct losses (r2 = 0.69). Countries recording direct losses were more likely to carry out voluntary or compulsory control and eradication programmes (odds ratio = 10.2; 95% confidence interval 1.7-81.9; P = 0.004).

A systematic review of financial and economic assessments of bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV) prevention and mitigation activities worldwide.

Infection with bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV) results in major economic losses either directly through decreased productive performance in cattle herds or indirectly, such as through expenses for control programs. The aim of this systematic review was to review financial and/or economic assessment studies of prevention and/or mitigation activities of BVDV at national, regional and farm level worldwide. Once all predefined criteria had been met, 35 articles were included for this systematic review. Studies were analyzed with particular focus on the type of financially and/or economically-assessed prevention and/or mitigation activities. Due to the wide range of possible prevention and/or mitigation activities, these activities were grouped into five categories: i) control and/or eradication programs, ii) monitoring or surveillance, iii) prevention, iv) vaccination and v) individual culling, control and testing strategies. Additionally, the studies were analyzed according to economically-related variables such as efficiency, costs or benefits of prevention and/or mitigation activities, the applied financial and/or economic and statistical methods, the payers of prevention and/or mitigation activities, the assessed production systems, and the countries for which such evaluations are available. Financial and/or economic assessments performed in Europe were dominated by those from the United Kingdom, which assessed mostly vaccination strategies, and Norway which primarily carried out assessments in the area of control and eradication programs; whereas among non-European countries the United States carried out the majority of financial and/or economic assessments in the area of individual culling, control and testing. More than half of all studies provided an efficiency calculation of prevention and/or mitigation activities and demonstrated whether the inherent costs of implemented activities were or were not justified. The dairy sector was three times more likely to be assessed by the countries than beef production systems. In addition, the dairy sector was approximately eight times more likely to be assessed economically with respect to prevention and/or mitigation activities than calf and youngstock production systems. Furthermore, the private sector was identified as the primary payer of prevention and/or mitigation activities. This systematic review demonstrated a lack of studies relating to efficiency calculations, in particular at national and regional level, and the specific production systems. Thus, we confirmed the need for more well-designed studies in animal health economics in order to demonstrate that the implementation and inherent costs of BVDV prevention and/or mitigation activities are justified.

Evaluation of the epidemiological and economic consequences of control scenarios for bovine viral diarrhea virus in dairy herds.

Bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV) is an important endemic infection. However, no information was available on whether it would be economically beneficial to implement a national control program in the Netherlands. Therefore, a stochastic simulation model was developed in which control scenarios were added to compare the epidemiological and economic consequences of BVDV control in Dutch dairy herds in the next 10 yr. In the epidemiological part of the model, herds could be classified as susceptible, infectious, recovered, or vaccinated. The outputs of the epidemiological module served as input for the economic module. Net costs that could be attributed to bovine viral diarrhea consisted of production losses, costs for testing, and culling persistently infected cattle in the present voluntary Dutch BVDV control program and costs for vaccination. Four different control scenarios were simulated, involving testing and culling of persistently infected (based on serum or ear-notch testing), and monitoring BVDV statuses and vaccination and were derived from BVDV control programs that are currently executed in Europe. The costs and benefits of BVDV control in the current situation and in each of the simulated control scenarios were evaluated assuming an annual discount rate of 2%. The model estimated a mean BVDV herd prevalence of 18.0% in 2014 and showed a slightly decreasing prevalence over time. The outputs seemed realistic for the present situation in the Netherlands when compared with actual survey data. The average annual net costs associated with bovine viral diarrhea were estimated at €27.8 million for the dairy industry. Two control scenarios were beneficial in controlling BVDV during the study period (between 2015 and 2025). In the scenario where tracing and removing of PI animals and monitoring of the subsequent status was obligatory, the benefit to cost (B/C) ratio was 1.5 (€1.5 benefit for each invested euro). In the scenario in which the BVDV status of all herds was determined, followed by voluntary measures before control measures became obligatory, the B/C ratio was 1.1. The B/C ratio of the scenarios included could be even higher when it was assumed that nondairy herds participated in the control program as well. The model provided the opportunity to compare the effect of voluntary and mandatory control scenarios on the BVDV prevalence and costs and benefits relative to the current situation in the Netherlands. The model was used to support policy makers in their decisions about a BVDV control program.

Bovine Viral Diarrhea Virus-Associated Disease in Feedlot Cattle.

Bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDv) is associated with bovine respiratory disease complex and other diseases of feedlot cattle. Although occasionally a primary pathogen, BVDv's impact on cattle health is through the immunosuppressive effects of the virus and its synergism with other pathogens. The simple presence or absence of BVDv does not result in consistent health outcomes because BVDv is only one of many risk factors that contribute to disease syndromes. Current interventions have limitations and the optimum strategy for their uses to limit the health, production, and economic costs associated with BVDv have to be carefully considered for optimum cost-effectiveness.

Bovine viral diarrhoea virus ('pestivirus') in Australia: to control or not to control?

BACKGROUND: Acute infection with bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV) usually causes only mild clinical disease in cattle, but infection of animals of breeding age can result in immune suppression (resulting in an increased incidence and severity of secondary disease) and decreased reproductive performance. If infection occurs during pregnancy, the virus may cross the placenta and either cause abortion, establish immunotolerance and persistent infection (PI) in the fetus or cause congenital deformities. These outcomes depend on the stage of pregnancy at the time of infection. INTERNATIONAL PERSPECTIVE: BVDV is recognised as a disease of significant financial impact in a number of countries. As a result, national and regional BVDV control programs are now in place in several regions around the world. In Europe, these programs largely rely on the identification and removal of the PI animals, whereas vaccination has tended to be the chosen method of control in the United States. BVD IN AUSTRALIA: BVDV is endemic in Australian cattle populations, with more than 80% of herds surveyed showing some level of exposure to the pathogen. The cost to the national industry is estimated to be AUD57.9 million annually. This review identifies and discusses the challenges to BVDV control in Australia, including farmer attitudes, herd size, sheep as a potential reservoir host and diagnostic capabilities. We conclude that systematic BVDV control in Australia is, or soon will be, an option; however, detailed cost-benefit analyses will need to be undertaken.

Economic risk analysis model for bovine viral diarrhea virus biosecurity in cow-calf herds.

A stochastic model was designed to calculate the cost-effectiveness of biosecurity strategies for bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV) in cow-calf herds. Possible sources of BVDV introduction considered were imported animals, including the calves of pregnant imports, and fenceline contact with infected herds, including stocker cattle raised in adjacent pastures. Spread of BVDV through the herd was modeled with a stochastic SIR model. Financial consequences of BVDV, including lost income, treatment costs, and the cost of biosecurity strategies, were calculated for 10 years, based on the risks of a herd with a user-defined import profile. Results indicate that importing pregnant animals and stockers increased the financial risk of BVDV. Strategic testing in combination with vaccination most decreased the risk of high-cost outbreaks in most herds. The choice of a biosecurity strategy was specific to the risks of a particular herd.

Reproductive and economic impact following controlled introduction of cattle persistently infected with bovine viral diarrhea virus into a naive group of heifers.

The reproductive impact following controlled introduction of animals persistently infected (PI) with bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV) was evaluated in BVDV-naive heifers. Heifers were randomly allocated into two groups: an unexposed control herd (n = 34) and a herd exposed to five persistently infected (PI) animals for 7 mo, beginning 50 days before the breeding season (n = 34). Initiation of the BVDV-challenge was timed to mimic either direct contact with PI calves born in the previous calving season or accidental introduction of PI herd additions prior to the breeding season. The PI animals represented BVDV Types 1a (n = 3), 1b (n = 1) and 2 (n = 1). Two BVDV-free, seropositive bulls were used in each group for 78 days breeding seasons. In both groups, 33 of 34 heifers became pregnant, with similar distribution of fetal ages. Two heifers in each group aborted (etiology undetermined). In addition, one calf was born dead and one calf died 3 days post-partum in the BVDV-exposed group. One calf in the unexposed group died 4 mo post-partum. No calves, including the stillborn calf and the two calves that died prior to weaning, were persistently infected with BVDV. In summary, introduction of PI cattle to a group of BVDV-naive heifers 50 days prior to the breeding season did not negatively impact reproductive performance. To the contrary, the active immunity that developed following field exposure to BVDV provided effective reproductive and fetal protection during the breeding season and subsequent gestations, despite continuous exposure to PI animals until approximately midgestation. Although BVDV can have potentially devastating reproductive effects, timing of infection is a critical determinant in the outcome of a BVDV infection. A controlled breeding season with introduction of herd additions at less critical reproductive time points can mitigate the negative reproductive health consequences of BVDV.

An economic model to evaluate the mitigation programme for bovine viral diarrhoea in Switzerland.

Economic analyses are indispensable as sources of information to help policy makers make decisions about mitigation resource use. The aim of this study was to conduct an economic evaluation of the Swiss national mitigation programme for bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV), which was implemented in 2008 and concludes in 2017. The eradication phase of the mitigation programme comprised testing and slaughtering of all persistently infected (PI) animals found. First, the whole population was antigen tested and all PI cattle removed. Since October 2008, all newborn calves have been subject to antigen testing to identify and slaughter PI calves. All mothers of PI calves were retested and slaughtered if the test was positive. Antigen testing in calves and elimination of virus-carriers was envisaged to be conducted until the end of 2011. Subsequently, a surveillance programme will document disease freedom or detect disease if it recurs. Four alternative surveillance strategies based on antibody testing in blood from newborn calves and/or milk from primiparous cows were proposed by Federal Veterinary Office servants in charge of the BVDV mitigation programme. A simple economic spreadsheet model was developed to estimate and compare the costs and benefits of the BVDV mitigation programme. In an independent project, the impact of the mitigation programme on the disease dynamics in the population was simulated using a stochastic compartment model. Mitigation costs accrued from materials, labour, and processes such as handling and testing samples, and recording results. Benefits were disease costs avoided by having the mitigation programme in place compared to a baseline of endemic disease equilibrium. Cumulative eradication costs and benefits were estimated to determine the break-even point for the eradication component of the programme. The margin over eradication cost therefore equalled the maximum expenditure potentially available for surveillance without the net benefit from the mitigation programme overall becoming zero. Costs of the four surveillance strategies and the net benefit of the mitigation programme were estimated. Simulations were run for the years 2008-2017 with 20,000 iterations in @Risk for Excel. The mean baseline disease costs were estimated to be 16.04 m CHF (1 Swiss Franc, CHF=0.73 € at the time of analysis) (90% central range, CR: 14.71-17.39 m CHF) in 2008 and 14.89 m CHF (90% CR: 13.72-16.08 m CHF) in 2009. The break-even point was estimated to be reached in 2012 and the margin over eradication cost 63.15m CHF (90% CR: 53.72-72.82 m CHF). The discounted cost for each surveillance strategy was found to be smaller than the margin, so the mitigation programme overall is expected to have a positive net economic benefit irrespective of the strategy adopted. For economic efficiency, the least cost surveillance alternative must be selected.

A simulation model to quantify the value of implementing whole-herd Bovine viral diarrhea virus testing strategies in beef cow-calf herds.

Although numerous diagnostic tests are available to identify cattle persistently infected (PI) with Bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV) in cow-calf herds, data are sparse when evaluating the economic viability of individual tests or diagnostic strategies. Multiple factors influence BVDV testing in determining if testing should be performed and which strategy to use. A stochastic model was constructed to estimate the value of implementing various whole-herd BVDV cow-calf testing protocols. Three common BVDV tests (immunohistochemistry, antigen-capture enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay, and polymerase chain reaction) performed on skin tissue were evaluated as single- or two-test strategies. The estimated testing value was calculated for each strategy at 3 herd sizes that reflect typical farm sizes in the United States (50, 100, and 500 cows) and 3 probabilities of BVDV-positive herd status (0.077, 0.19, 0.47) based upon the literature. The economic value of testing was the difference in estimated gross revenue between simulated cow-calf herds that either did or did not apply the specific testing strategy. Beneficial economic outcomes were more frequently observed when the probability of a herd being BVDV positive was 0.47. Although the relative value ranking of many testing strategies varied by each scenario, the two-test strategy composed of immunohistochemistry had the highest estimated value in all but one herd size-herd prevalence permutation. These data indicate that the estimated value of applying BVDV whole-herd testing strategies is influenced by the selected strategy, herd size, and the probability of herd BVDV-positive status; therefore, these factors should be considered when designing optimum testing strategies for cow-calf herds.

Eradication programme for bovine viral diarrhoea virus in Orkney 2001 to 2008.

The strategies used and the results obtained in Orkney's bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV) eradication programme over eight years (2001 to 2008) are presented and discussed. The venture was undertaken by local veterinary practices and the Orkney Livestock Association (OLA) with the financial support of the Orkney Islands Council. Participation is voluntary; the programme comprises screening of youngstock, a whole-herd test if required, elimination of persistently infected animals and strict biosecurity measures and/or vaccination. BVDV-free herds are certified, and certification is updated annually by retesting the youngstock. The programme aims to minimise economic losses, thereby increasing the competitiveness of the Orcadian cattle industry and to improve animal health and welfare by eliminating virus circulation. Information from databases of the Scottish Agricultural College, Biobest Laboratories and OLA show that despite a significant reduction in the overall prevalence of BVDV on Orkney during the initial stages of the eradication programme, there has been little progress made since 2006 and that some difficulties have been encountered, with herd BVDV breakdowns following initial eradication. These results highlight the need for continued motivation of farmers, strict application of biosecurity measures and/or systematic vaccination of all seronegative breeding animals.