Bovine brucellosis - a comprehensive review.

Brucellosis is a zoonotic disease of great animal welfare and economic implications worldwide known since ancient times. The emergence of brucellosis in new areas as well as transmission of brucellosis from wild and domestic animals is of great significance in terms of new epidemiological dimensions. Brucellosis poses a major public health threat by the consumption of non-pasteurized milk and milk products produced by unhygienic dairy farms in endemic areas. Regular and meticulous surveillance is essentially required to determine the true picture of brucellosis especially in areas with continuous high prevalence. Additionally, international migration of humans, animals and trade of animal products has created a challenge for disease spread and diagnosis in non-endemic areas. Isolation and identification remain the gold standard test, which requires expertise. The advancement in diagnostic strategies coupled with screening of newly introduced animals is warranted to control the disease. Of note, the diagnostic value of miRNAs for appropriate detection of B. abortus infection has been shown. The most widely used vaccine strains to protect against Brucella infection and related abortions in cattle are strain 19 and RB51. Moreover, it is very important to note that no vaccine, which is highly protective, safe and effective is available either for bovines or human beings. Research results encourage the use of bacteriophage lysates in treatment of bovine brucellosis. One Health approach can aid in control of this disease, both in animals and man.

Assessing the Impact of Optimal Health Education Programs on the Control of Zoonotic Diseases.

To better understand the dynamics of zoonotic diseases, we propose a deterministic mathematical model to study the dynamics of zoonotic brucellosis with a focus on developing countries. The model contains all the relevant biological details, including indirect transmission by the environment. We analyze the essential dynamic behavior of the model and perform an optimal control study to design effective prevention and intervention strategies. The sensitivity analysis of the model parameters is performed. The aim of the controls is tied to reducing the number of infected humans, through health promotional programs within the affected communities. The Pontryagin's Maximum Principle is used to characterize the optimal level of the controls, and the resulting optimality system is solved numerically. Overall, the study demonstrates that through health promotional programs on zoonotic diseases among villagers, it is vital that they should be conducted with high efficacy.

Risk factors for new bovine brucellosis infections in Colombian herds.

BACKGROUND: Bovine brucellosis is a zoonotic disease that causes substantial economic losses and has a strong impact on public health. The main objective of this paper is to determine the risk factors for new infections of Brucella abortus on Colombian cattle farms previously certified as being free of brucellosis. A case-control study was conducted by comparing 98 cases (farms certified as brucellosis-free for three or more years but became infected) with 93 controls (farms that remained brucellosis-free during at least the previous three years). The farms were matched by herd size and geographical location (municipality). Information was obtained via a questionnaire completed by veterinary officers through a personal interview with the herd owners. RESULTS: Two-thirds of the herds (67%) were dairy herds, 16% were beef herds, and 17% were dual-purpose (beef and milk) herds. After exploratory univariate analysis, all explanatory variables with a p-value of ≤0.20 were included in a logistic regression model using the forward stepwise method to select the model with the best goodness of fit. The significant risk factors were the replacement of animals from farms not certified as brucellosis-free compared to replacement from certified brucellosis-free farms (OR = 4.84, p-value < 0.001) and beef cattle farms compared to dairy cattle farms (OR = 3.61, p-value = 0.017). When herds with and without artificial insemination were compared, it was observed that farms that used natural breeding with bulls from non-certified herds had a higher risk than farms using artificial insemination (OR = 2.45, p-value = 0.037), but when the bulls came from brucellosis-free farms, farms with natural breeding were less affected (OR = 0.30, p-value = 0.004) than farms using artificial insemination, whether with frozen semen from certified brucellosis-free herds or fresh semen from uncontrolled herds. The latter is commonly sold to neighbouring farms. CONCLUSIONS: The government should make efforts to inform farmers about the risks involved in the introduction of semen and replacement heifers from farms that are not certified as brucellosis-free and to establish measures to control these practices.

Animal brucellosis control or eradication programs worldwide: A systematic review of experiences and lessons learned.

Brucellosis is one of the most common zoonoses worldwide, causing huge economic losses in the animal industry and posing a serious threat to human health. Although the World Health Organization (WHO) and World Organization for Animal Health (OIE) has recommended strategies or measures to control or eradicate brucellosis, only some developed countries have achieved freedom from animal brucellosis. In developing countries, brucellosis remains a serious problem, and the importance of its control has attracted little attention. The strategies and measures are difficult to implement effectively in countries with limited resources because the eradication of brucellosis is an expensive, time-consuming and labor-intensive project. Therefore, more effort is needed to explore the appropriate strategies and measures in developing countries. In this study, we collected the available publications regarding brucellosis control or eradication programs in different countries and areas, and summarized the main strategies and measures, supplementary measures, effects, and lessons learned during their implementation. Results showed that the freedom from animal brucellosis was only achieved in three countries among the 23 included countries and areas after the implementation of the programs, which had lasted several decades. Either alone or together, vaccination and test-and-slaughter programs can effectively reduce brucellosis prevalence. Supplementary measures involve a number of aspects, and their effective implementation is crucial to the success of disease control and cannot be ignored. While disease control or eradication requires extensive resources, some studies have shown that a well-designed and well-implemented disease control or eradication program is economically effective. Experience has revealed that even if significant results have been achieved, the project could not be terminated without careful consideration due to the potential for recurrence.

Network-based assessment of the vulnerability of Italian regions to bovine brucellosis.

The endemic circulation of bovine brucellosis in cattle herds has a markedly negative impact on economy, due to decreased fertility, increased abortion rates, reduced milk and meat production. It also poses a direct threat to human health. In Italy, despite the long lasting efforts and the considerable economic investment, complete eradication of this disease still eludes the southern regions, as opposed to the northern regions that are disease-free. Here we introduced a novel quantitative network-based approach able to fully exploit the highly resolved databases of cattle trade movements and outbreak reports to yield estimates of the vulnerability of a cattle market to brucellosis. Tested on the affected regions, the introduced vulnerability indicator was shown to be accurate in predicting the number of bovine brucellosis outbreaks (Spearman r= 0.82, p= 0.04), thus confirming the suitability of our tool for epidemic risk assessment. We evaluated the dependence of regional vulnerability to brucellosis on a set of factors including premises spatial distribution, trading patterns, farming practices, herd market value, compliance to outbreak regulations, and exploring different epidemiological conditions. Animal trade movements were identified as a major route for brucellosis spread between farms (r=0.85,p<10-5 between vulnerability and number of inbound movements), with an additional potential risk attributed to the use of shared pastures (r=0.4,p=0.04). By comparing the vulnerability of disease-free regions in the north to affected regions in the south, we found that more intense trade and higher market value of the cattle sector in the north (r=0.56,p=0.01) likely inducing more efficient biosafety measures, together with poor compliance to trade restrictions following outbreaks in the south were key factors explaining the diverse success in eradicating brucellosis. Our modeling scheme is both synthetic and effective in gauging regional vulnerability to brucellosis persistence. Its general formulation makes it adaptable to other diseases and host species, providing a useful tool for veterinary epidemiology and policy assessment.

Dairy farm demographics and management factors that played a role in the re-emergence of brucellosis on dairy cattle farms in Fiji.

Little is published on risk factors associated with bovine brucellosis in Pacific island communities. The 2009 re-emergence of bovine brucellosis in Fiji enabled us to do an interview-based questionnaire survey of 81 farms in the Wainivesi locality of the Tailevu province on the main island of Fiji to investigate what risk factors could have played a role in the re-emergence of the disease. The survey was conducted on 68 farms that had no positive cases of bovine brucellosis and on 13 farms in the same area where cattle had returned a positive result to the Brucella Rose Bengal test. Descriptive statistical methods were used to describe the demographic data while univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression were used to evaluate the association between the selected risk factors and the presence of brucellosis on the farms at the time of the outbreak. The demographics of Fijian dairy farms are presented in the article and the biosecurity implications of those farming systems are discussed. Two risk factors were strongly associated with farms having brucellosis, and these were history of reactor cattle to brucellosis and or bovine tuberculosis on the farm (OR = 29, P ≤ 0.01) and farms that practised sharing of water sources for cattle within and with outside farms (OR = 39, P ≤ 0.01). Possible reasons why these were risk factors are also discussed. The potential risks for human health was also high as the use of personal protective equipment was low (15%). A high proportion of farmers (62%) could not recognise brucellosis thus contributing to the low frequency of disease reports (44%) made. The article also highlights other important risk factors which could be attributed to farming practices in the region and which could contribute to public health risks and the re-emergence of diseases.

Isolation of Brucella abortus from a Dog and a Cat Confirms their Biological Role in Re-emergence and Dissemination of Bovine Brucellosis on Dairy Farms.

Brucellosis is highly contagious bacterial zoonoses affecting a wide range of domesticated and wild animals. In this study, Brucella (B.) abortus bv 1 was identified in uterine discharge of apparently healthy bitch and queen with open pyometra housed on a cattle farm. This study highlights the role of dogs and cats as symptomatic carriers and reservoirs for Brucella. To the best of our knowledge, this study represents the first report of feline infection with B. abortus bv 1 globally. These pet animals may contaminate the environment and infect both livestock and humans. Surveillance and control programmes of brucellosis have to include eradication of the disease in dogs, cats and companion animals.

Brucella abortus S19 vaccine protects dairy cattle against natural infection with Brucella melitensis.

Brucellosis is a zoonotic disease that can cause severe illness in humans and considerable economic loss in the livestock industry. Although small ruminants are the preferential host for Brucella melitensis, this pathogen has emerged as a cause for Brucella outbreaks in cattle. S19 vaccination is implemented in many countries where B. abortus is endemic but its effectiveness against B. melitensis has not been validated. Here we show that vaccine effectiveness in preventing disease transmission between vaccinated and unvaccinated cohorts, as determined by seroconversion, was 87.2% (95% CI 69.5-94.6%). Furthermore, vaccination was associated with a reduced risk for abortion. Together, our data emphasize the role S19 vaccination could play in preventing B. melitensis outbreaks in areas where this pathogen is prevalent in small ruminant populations.

Large-scale study of herd-level risk factors for bovine brucellosis in Brazil.

Bovine brucellosis is an important zoonosis caused by Brucella abortus that negatively impacts livestock productivity. In 2001, Brazil launched a new national program aimed at eradicating animal brucellosis that included large-scale studies of the prevalence and risk factors to support strategic decision-making. These studies were implemented by the animal health authorities and were underpinned by the scientific coordination of the University of São Paulo and the University of Brasília. The state-level results were published and revealed important differences in herd prevalence among regions. The risk factors varied across states and did not clearly explain the observed spatial disease spread. This study used a consolidated herd-level database of 14 states and 17,100 herds, from the prevalence surveys' data, to gain insights into herd profiles and cattle production practices that might be associated with the risk of brucellosis. At the time of data collection, the study area comprised just over 56 million bovine females aged over 24 months and approximately 1.8 million herds. After an exploratory univariable analysis, all factors with p≤0.20 were included in a multiple logistic regression model, using the design-based method in order to take herd sampling weights into account. The number of females in the herd markedly increased the risk of infection; compared with smaller herds (less than 30 females), the odds ratio was 3.42 [CI 95% 2.98-3.91] for herds with 31 to 100 females, 5.68 [4.92-6.55] for herds with 101 to 400 females, and 13.14 [10.94-15.78] for herds with more than 400 females. The risk was higher for extensive cattle production farms (OR=1.23 [1.07-1.42]) and for farms that purchased replacement stock from cattle traders (OR=1.27 [1.08-1.47]) or directly from other farms (OR=1.19 [1.07-1.32]). The exclusive use of artificial insemination (OR=0.57 [0.4-0.81]) and regular veterinary support (OR=0.68 [0.6-0.77]) appeared to be protective factors. These findings are consistent with the regional prevalence trends observed in the study and provide key guidance for the planning of the national effort to control and eradicate brucellosis. High vaccination coverage of heifers is recommended, especially when targeted to areas where large-scale extensive cattle production predominates. The smaller, more intensive herds, are good candidates for disease accreditation schemes.

Apparent seroprevalence, isolation and identification of risk factors for brucellosis among dairy cattle in Goa, India.

Brucellosis is a highly contagious zoonotic infection affecting livestock and human beings. The disease has been reported worldwide except in few countries where it has been eradicated. The prevalence of brucellosis among cattle from 11 farms having a history of abortions was studied. A total of 481 samples comprising of blood, milk, vaginal swabs, vaginal discharges, placental tissues and fetal tissues were collected from 296 animals. Clinical samples were processed for the isolation of Brucella. Serum samples (n=296) were tested by Rose Bengal Plate Test (RBPT) and indirect ELISA. A total of 90 (30.40%) and 123 (41.55%) samples were positive by RBPT and indirect ELISA, respectively. Also 27.02% samples were positive by both the tests. Brucella isolates (n= 8) were recovered from clinical samples using Brucella selective media. All the isolates demonstrated PCR amplification for the bcsp31 and IS711 genes. Amplification of Brucella abortus specific primer was demonstrated by all the isolates in AMOS PCR indicating isolates to be of either B. abortus biotype 1, 2 or 4. Risk factors for transmission of brucellosis among cattle population were studied by field surveys. It was observed that lack of awareness about brucellosis (OR=8.739, P=0.138) and inadequate floor space (OR=0.278, P=0.128) were crucial risk factors for transmission of bovine brucellosis.

Knowledge, Attitudes, and Practices Associated with Brucellosis in Livestock Owners in Jordan.

We evaluated livestock owners' knowledge, attitudes, and practices regarding brucellosis in Jordan. A questionnaire was administered and biological samples were examined to verify the serological status of animals. Seroprevalence estimates indicated that 18.1% (95% CI: 11-25.3) of cattle herds and 34.3% (95% CI: 28.4-40.4) of small ruminant flocks were seropositive. The results showed that 100% of the interviewed livestock keepers were aware of brucellosis: 87% indicated a high risk of infection if unpasteurized milk is consumed and 75% indicated a high risk if unpasteurized dairy products are consumed. Awareness of the risk of infection through direct contact with fetal membranes or via physical contact with infected livestock is considerably lower, 19% and 13%, respectively. These knowledge gaps manifest in a high frequency of high-risk practices such as assisting in animal parturition (62%), disposing aborted fetuses without protective gloves (71.2%) or masks (65%), and not boiling milk before preparation of dairy products (60%). When brucellosis is suspected, basic hygiene practices are often disregarded and suspect animals are freely traded. Public health education should be enhanced as the disease is likely to remain endemic in the ruminant reservoir as long as a suitable compensation program is not established and trust on available vaccines is regained.

Community Perceptions on Integrating Animal Vaccination and Health Education by Veterinary and Public Health Workers in the Prevention of Brucellosis among Pastoral Communities of South Western Uganda.

BACKGROUND: Brucellosis is a zoonotic disease of veterinary, public health, and economic significance in most developing countries, yet there are few studies that show integrated human and veterinary health care intervention focusing on integration at both activity and actors levels. The aim of our study, therefore, was to explore community perceptions on integration of animal vaccination and health education by veterinary and public health workers in the management of brucellosis in Uganda. METHODS: This study used a qualitative design where six Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) that were homogenous in nature were conducted, two from each sub-county, one with the local leaders, and another with pastoralists and farmers. Five Key Informant Interviews (KIIs) with two public health workers and three veterinary extension workers from three sub-counties in Kiruhura district, Uganda were conducted. All FGDs were conducted in the local language and tape recorded with consent from the participants. KIIs were in English and later transcribed and analyzed using latent content data analysis method. RESULTS: All the groups mentioned that they lacked awareness on brucellosis commonly known as Brucella and its vaccination in animals. Respondents perceived improvement in human resources in terms of training and recruiting more health personnel, facilitation of the necessary activities such as sensitization of the communities about brucellosis, and provision of vaccines and diagnostic tests as very important in the integration process in the communities. The FGD participants also believed that community participation was crucial for sustainability and ownership of the integration process. CONCLUSIONS: The respondents reported limited knowledge of brucellosis and its vaccination in animals. The community members believed that mass animal vaccination in combination with health education about the disease is important and possible if it involves government and all other stakeholders such as wildlife authorities, community members, local to national political leaders, as well as the technical personnel from veterinary, medical and public health sectors since it affects both humans and animals.

Detection of Brucella abortus DNA in aborted goats and sheep in Egypt by real-time PCR.

BACKGROUND: Brucellosis is a major zoonoses affects wide range of domesticated as well as wild animals. Despite the eradication program of brucellosis in Egypt, the disease is still endemic among cattle, buffaloes, sheep, goats, and camels. RESULTS: In the present study, abortion occurred naturally among 25 animals (10 cows, 5 buffaloes, 9 Egyptian Baladi goats and 1 ewe) shared the same pasture were investigated by real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). DNA of Brucella (B.) abortus was detected in serum of goats and sheep which has aborted recently by species-specific RT-PCR. The results suggest cross-species infection of B. abortus from cattle to non-preferred hosts raised in close contact. CONCLUSION: This article will renew our knowledge about the Brucella agent causing abortion in small ruminants in Egypt. Information provided in this study is important for surveillance program, because eradication programs and vaccination strategies may have to be adapted accordingly.

Prediction and control of brucellosis transmission of dairy cattle in Zhejiang Province, China.

Brucellosis is a bacterial disease caused by brucella; mainly spread by direct contact transmission through the brucella carriers, or indirect contact transmission by the environment containing large quantities of bacteria discharged by the infected individuals. At the beginning of 21st century, the epidemic among dairy cows in Zhejiang province, began to come back and has become a localized prevalent epidemic. Combining the pathology of brucellosis, the reported positive data characteristics, and the feeding method in Zhejiang province, this paper establishes an SEIV dynamic model to excavate the internal transmission dynamics, fit the real disease situation, predict brucellosis tendency and assess control measures in dairy cows. By careful analysis, we give some quantitative results as follows. (1) The external input of dairy cows from northern areas may lead to high fluctuation of the number of the infectious cows in Zhejiang province that can reach several hundreds. In this case, the disease cannot be controlled and the infection situation cannot easily be predicted. Thus, this paper encourages cows farms to insist on self-supplying production of the dairy cows. (2) The effect of transmission rate of brucella in environment to dairy cattle on brucellosis spreading is greater than transmission rate of the infectious dairy cattle to susceptible cattle. The prevalence of the epidemic is mainly aroused by environment transmission. (3) Under certain circumstances, the epidemic will become a periodic phenomenon. (4) For Zhejiang province, besides measures that have already been adopted, sterilization times of the infected regions is suggested as twice a week, and should be combined with management of the birth rate of dairy cows to control brucellosis spread.

Spatial predictors of bovine tuberculosis infection and Brucella spp. exposure in pastoralist and agropastoralist livestock herds in the Ruaha ecosystem of Tanzania.

While many studies investigate animal-related risk factors for disease, few have considered environmental or spatial risk factors in the dynamics of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) and brucellosis. In the Ruaha ecosystem of Tanzania, we investigated the role of household location as a predictor for infection with Mycobacterium bovis and exposure to Brucella in pastoralist and agropastoralist cattle herds in a typical African wildlife-livestock-human interface. ArcGIS was utilized to calculate Euclidian distances between households and the nearest river, village center, protected area, and other infected households, followed by multivariate logistic regression to assess the association between risk factors and herd-level bTB and Brucella outcomes. Global and local spatial clustering of bTB-infected and Brucella-exposed herds was explored using the Cuzick-Edward's test and SaTScan spatial scan statistics. Households located farther from rivers and closer to village centers and herds belonging to agropastoralists were more likely to have bTB-positive cattle. Risk of Brucella exposure increased with proximity to protected areas. One spatial cluster of households with Brucella spp. seropositive cattle was identified. Spatial factors may be useful for assessing disease risk and for formulating intervention and control strategies for households that manage cattle in ecosystems characterized by seasonally limited resources and intense wildlife-livestock interfaces.

Transmission of brucellosis from elk to cattle and bison, Greater Yellowstone area, U.S.A., 2002-2012.

Bovine brucellosis has been nearly eliminated from livestock in the United States. Bison and elk in the Greater Yellowstone Area remain reservoirs for the disease. During 1990-2002, no known cases occurred in Greater Yellowstone Area livestock. Since then, 17 transmission events from wildlife to livestock have been investigated.

Knowledge and practices related to bovine brucellosis transmission amongst livestock workers in Yewa, south-western Nigeria.

Brucellosis is an endemic disease in the animal population in Nigeria and of major public health importance, particularly amongst livestock workers who are ignorant of the risk of Brucella infection. Therefore, to gain insight into the knowledge and practices related to brucellosis transmission amongst livestock holders (LH) and livestock marketers (LM) in Yewa, an international livestock trading centre in south-western Nigeria, we conducted an interviewbased study using a cluster sampling technique. In all, a total of 157 respondents comprising 54 LH and 103 LM were interviewed. Two-thirds (69.5%) of the two groups had poor knowledge of brucellosis with no significant difference between them (p = 0.262). Furthermore, consumption of unpasteurised milk, uncooked meat and its products, co-habitation with animals, and poor hygiene were significant risk practices identified as possible means of transfer of Brucella infection from animals to humans amongst these livestock workers (p < 0.05). In conclusion, our findings revealed that poor knowledge and practices related to the consumption of unpasteurised or unboiled dairy products, contaminated beef, and unhygienic practices are factors that will facilitate Brucella infections amongst livestock workers in Nigeria. Therefore, there is a need for more public health enlightenment programmes, as well as implementation of brucellosis control measures in the cattle populations.

Epidemiologic relatedness between Brucella abortus isolates from livestock and wildlife in South Korea.

To investigate the epidemiologic relatedness of Brucella abortus isolates from Chinese water deer (Hydropotes inermis) and goral (Naemorhedus goral raddeanus) in 2010-2011, 22l isolates from livestock (including domestic elk, Cervus canadensis) were analyzed using the multilocus variable-number tandem repeats analysis. In the clustering analysis, Korean B. abortus isolates were divided into 40 genotypes by 18 markers, and 2 B. abortus isolates from wildlife were clustered with those of domestic cattle. Based on the minimum spanning tree, B. abortus isolates from wildlife were closely related to or had originated from livestock. Control measures are necessary to be able to block the transmission of Brucella between domestic and wild animals, and continuous monitoring of wildlife will be necessary to eradicate brucellosis in South Korea.

Relationship between burden of infection in ungulate populations and wildlife/livestock interfaces.

In southern African transfrontier conservation areas (TFCAs), people, livestock and wildlife share space and resources in semi-arid landscapes. One consequence of the coexistence of wild and domestic herbivores is the risk of pathogen transmission. This risk threatens local livelihoods relying on animal production, public health in the case of zoonoses, national economies in the context of transboundary animal diseases, and the success of integrated conservation and development initiatives. The level of interaction between sympatric wild and domestic hosts, defining different wildlife/livestock interfaces, characterizes opportunities of pathogen transmission between host populations. Exploring the relationship between infection burden and different types of wildlife/domestic interfaces is therefore necessary to manage the sanitary risk in animal populations through control options adapted to these multi-host systems. Here, we assessed the infection burdens of sympatric domestic cattle (Bos taurus/Bos indicus) and African buffalo (Syncerus caffer) at an unfenced interface and compared the infection burdens of cattle populations at different wildlife/livestock interfaces in the Great Limpopo TFCA. Patterns of infection in ungulate populations varied between wild and domestic hosts and between cattle populations at different wildlife/livestock interfaces. Foot-and-mouth disease, Rift Valley fever and theileriosis infections were detected in buffalo and cattle at unfenced interfaces; bovine tuberculosis was only present in buffalo; and brucellosis and lumpy skin disease only in cattle. At unfenced interfaces, cattle populations presented significantly higher Theileria parva and brucellosis prevalence. We hypothesize that cattle populations at wildlife/livestock interfaces face an increased risk of infection compared to those isolated from wildlife, and that the type of interface could influence the diversity and quantity of pathogens shared. Additional host behavioural and molecular epidemiological studies need to be conducted to support this hypothesis. If it is confirmed, the management of wildlife/livestock interfaces will need to be considered through the prism of livestock and public health.

Time series analysis of human and bovine brucellosis in South Korea from 2005 to 2010.

Brucellosis is considered to be one of the most important zoonotic diseases in the world, affecting underdeveloped and developing countries. The primary purpose of brucellosis control is to prevent the spread of disease from animals (typically ruminants) to humans. The main objective of this study was to retrospectively develop an appropriate time series model for cattle-to-human transmission in South Korea using data from independent national surveillance systems. Monthly case counts for cattle and people as well as national population data were available for 2005-2010. The temporal relationship was evaluated using an autoregressive integrated moving average with exogenous input (ARIMAX) model [notated as ARIMA(p, d, q)-AR(p)] and a negative binomial regression (NBR) model. Human incidence rate was highly correlated to cattle incidence rate in the same month and the previous month (both r=0.82). In the final models, ARIMA (0, 1, 1)-AR (0, 1) was determined as the best fit with 191.5% error in the validation phase, whereas the best NBR model including lags (0, 1 months) for the cattle incidence rate yielded a 131.9% error in the validation phase. Error (MAPE) rates were high due to small absolute human case numbers (typically less than 10 per month in the validation phase). The NBR model however was able to demonstrate a marked reduction in human case immediately following a hypothetical marked reduction in cattle cases, and may be better for public health decision making.