Health and Economic Impacts of the National Menu Calorie Labeling Law in the United States: A Microsimulation Study.

BACKGROUND: Excess caloric intake is linked to weight gain, obesity, and related diseases, including type 2 diabetes mellitus and cardiovascular disease (CVD). Obesity incidence is rising, with nearly 3 in 4 US adults being overweight or obese. In 2018, the US federal government finalized the implementation of mandatory labeling of calorie content on all menu items across major chain restaurants nationally as a strategy to support informed consumer choice, reduce caloric intake, and potentially encourage restaurant reformulations. Yet, the potential health and economic impacts of this policy remain unclear. METHODS AND RESULTS: We used a validated microsimulation model (CVD-PREDICT) to estimate reductions in CVD events, diabetes mellitus cases, gains in quality-adjusted life years, costs, and cost-effectiveness of the menu calorie labeling intervention, based on consumer responses alone, and further accounting for potential industry reformulation. The model incorporated nationally representative demographic and dietary data from National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys 2009 to 2016; policy effects on consumer diets and body mass index-disease effects from published meta-analyses; and policy effects on industry reformulation, policy costs (policy administration, industry compliance, and reformulation), and health-related costs (formal and informal healthcare costs, productivity costs) from established sources or reasonable assumptions. We modeled change in calories to change in weight using an established dynamic weight-change model, assuming 50% of expected calorie reductions would translate to long-term reductions. Findings were evaluated over 5 years and a lifetime from healthcare and societal perspectives, with uncertainty incorporated in both 1-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. Between 2018 and 2023, implementation of the restaurant menu calorie labeling law was estimated, based on consumer response alone, to prevent 14 698 new CVD cases (including 1575 CVD deaths) and 21 522 new type 2 diabetes mellitus cases, gaining 8749 quality-adjusted life years. Over a lifetime, corresponding values were 135 781 new CVD cases (including 27 646 CVD deaths), 99 736 type 2 diabetes mellitus cases, and 367 450 quality-adjusted life years. Assuming modest restaurant item reformulation, both health and economic benefits were estimated to be about 2-fold larger than based on consumer response alone. The consumer response alone was estimated to be cost-saving by 2023, with net lifetime savings of $10.42B from a healthcare perspective and $12.71B from a societal perspective. Findings were robust in a range of sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSIONS: Our national model suggests that the full implementation of the US calorie menu labeling law will generate significant health gains and healthcare and societal cost-savings. Industry responses to modestly reformulate menu items would provide even larger additional benefits.

Cost-Effectiveness of Diet and Exercise for Overweight and Obese Patients With Knee Osteoarthritis.

OBJECTIVE: The Intensive Diet and Exercise for Arthritis (IDEA) trial showed that an intensive diet and exercise (D+E) program led to a mean 10.6-kg weight reduction and 51% pain reduction in patients with knee osteoarthritis (OA). The aim of the current study was to investigate the cost-effectiveness of adding this D+E program to treatment in overweight and obese (body mass index >27 kg/m2 ) patients with knee OA. METHODS: We used the Osteoarthritis Policy Model to estimate quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and lifetime costs for overweight and obese patients with knee OA, with and without the D+E program. We evaluated cost-effectiveness with the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), a ratio of the differences in lifetime cost and QALYs between treatment strategies. We considered 3 cost-effectiveness thresholds: $50,000/QALY, $100,000/QALY, and $200,000/QALY. Analyses were conducted from health care sector and societal perspectives and used a lifetime horizon. Costs and QALYs were discounted at 3% per year. D+E characteristics were derived from the IDEA trial. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses (PSAs) were used to evaluate parameter uncertainty and the effect of extending the duration of the D+E program. RESULTS: In the base case, D+E led to 0.054 QALYs gained per person and cost $1,845 from the health care sector perspective and $1,624 from the societal perspective. This resulted in ICERs of $34,100/QALY and $30,000/QALY. In the health care sector perspective PSA, D+E had 58% and 100% likelihoods of being cost-effective with thresholds of $50,000/QALY and $100,000/QALY, respectively. CONCLUSION: Adding D+E to usual care for overweight and obese patients with knee OA is cost-effective and should be implemented in clinical practice.

Gaps in the Evidence on Population Interventions to Reduce Consumption of Sugars: A Review of Reviews.

There is currently considerable attention directed to identifying promising interventions to reduce consumption of sugars among populations around the world. A review of systematic reviews was conducted to identify gaps in the evidence on such interventions. Medline, EMBASE CINAHL, and the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews were searched to identify systematic reviews published in English from January 2005 to May 2017 and considering research on interventions to reduce sugar intake. Twelve systematic reviews that considered price changes, interventions to alter the food available within specific environments, and health promotion and education programs were examined. Each of the identified reviews focused on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs). The existing literature provides some promising indications in terms of the potential of interventions to reduce SSB consumption among populations. However, a common thread is the limited scope of available evidence, combined with the heterogeneity of methods and measures used in existing studies, which limits conclusions that can be reached regarding the effectiveness of interventions. Reviewed studies typically had limited follow-up periods, making it difficult to assess the sustainability of effects. Further, there is a lack of studies that address the complex context within which interventions are implemented and evaluated, and little is known about the cost-effectiveness of interventions. Identified gaps speak to the need for a more holistic approach to sources of sugars beyond SSBs, consensus on measures and methods, attention to the implementation of interventions in relation to context, and careful monitoring to identify intended and unintended consequences.

A health economic model to assess the cost-effectiveness of OPTIFAST for the treatment of obesity in the United States.

OBJECTIVES: Obesity is associated with high direct medical costs and indirect costs resulting from productivity loss. The high prevalence of obesity generates a justified need to identify cost-effective weight loss approaches from a payer's perspective. Within the variety of weight management techniques, OPTIFAST is a clinically recognized and scientifically proven total meal replacement Low Calorie Diet that provides meaningful results in terms of weight loss and reduction in comorbidities. The objective of this study is assess potential cost-savings of the OPTIFAST program in the US, as compared to "no intervention" and pharmacotherapy. METHODS: An event-driven decision analytic model was used to estimate payer's cost-savings from reimbursement of the 1-year OPTIFAST program over 3 years in the US. The analysis was performed for the broad population of obese persons (BMI >30 kg/m2) undergoing the OPTIFAST program vs liraglutide 3 mg, naltrexone/bupropion and vs "no intervention". The model included the risk of complications related to increased BMI. Data sources included published literature, clinical trials, official US price/tariff lists, and national population statistics. The primary perspective was that of a US payer; costs were provided in 2016 US dollars. RESULTS: OPTIFAST leads over a period of 3 years to cost-savings of USD 9,285 per class I and II obese patient (BMI 30-39.9 kg/m2) as compared to liraglutide and USD 685 as compared to naltrexone/bupropion. In the same time perspective, the OPTIFAST program leads to a reduction of cost of obesity complications of USD 1,951 as compared to "no intervention", with the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of USD 6,475 per QALY. Scenario analyses also show substantial cost-savings in patients with class III obesity (BMI ≥ 40.0 kg/m2) and patients with obesity (BMI = 30-39.9 kg/m2) and type 2 diabetes vs all three previous comparators and bariatric surgery. CONCLUSIONS: Reimbursing OPTIFAST leads to meaningful cost-savings for US payers as compared with "no intervention" and liraglutide and naltrexone/bupropion in obese patients. Similar results can be expected in matching healthcare settings of other countries. Moreover, OPTIFAST has additional clinical and economic advantages through very low complication and adverse events rates.

Modelled Cost-Effectiveness of a Package Size Cap and a Kilojoule Reduction Intervention to Reduce Energy Intake from Sugar-Sweetened Beverages in Australia.

Interventions targeting portion size and energy density of food and beverage products have been identified as a promising approach for obesity prevention. This study modelled the potential cost-effectiveness of: a package size cap on single-serve sugar sweetened beverages (SSBs) >375 mL ( package size cap ), and product reformulation to reduce energy content of packaged SSBs ( energy reduction ). The cost-effectiveness of each intervention was modelled for the 2010 Australia population using a multi-state life table Markov model with a lifetime time horizon. Long-term health outcomes were modelled from calculated changes in body mass index to their impact on Health-Adjusted Life Years (HALYs). Intervention costs were estimated from a limited societal perspective. Cost and health outcomes were discounted at 3%. Total intervention costs estimated in AUD 2010 were AUD 210 million. Both interventions resulted in reduced mean body weight ( package size cap : 0.12 kg; energy reduction : 0.23 kg); and HALYs gained ( package size cap : 73,883; energy reduction : 144,621). Cost offsets were estimated at AUD 750.8 million ( package size cap ) and AUD 1.4 billion ( energy reduction ). Cost-effectiveness analyses showed that both interventions were "dominant", and likely to result in long term cost savings and health benefits. A package size cap and kJ reduction of SSBs are likely to offer excellent "value for money" as obesity prevention measures in Australia.

Reducing energy intake and energy density for a sustainable diet: a study based on self-selected diets in French adults.

BACKGROUND: Studies on theoretical diets are not sufficient to implement sustainable diets in practice because of unknown cultural acceptability. In contrast, self-selected diets can be considered culturally acceptable. OBJECTIVE: The objective was to identify the most sustainable diets consumed by people in everyday life. DESIGN: The diet-related greenhouse gas emissions (GHGE) for self-selected diets of 1918 adults participating in the cross-sectional French national dietary survey Individual and National Survey on Food Consumption (INCA2) were estimated. "Lower-Carbon," "Higher-Quality," and "More Sustainable" diets were defined as having GHGE lower than the overall median value, a probability of adequate nutrition intake (PANDiet) score (a measure of the overall nutritional adequacy of a diet) higher than the overall median value, and a combination of both criteria, respectively. Diet cost, as a proxy for affordability, and energy density were also assessed. RESULTS: More Sustainable diets were consumed by 23% of men and 20% of women, and their GHGE values were 19% and 17% lower than the population average (mean) value, respectively. In comparison with the average value, Lower-Carbon diets achieved a 20% GHGE reduction and lower cost, but they were not sustainable because they had a lower PANDiet score. Higher-Quality diets were not sustainable because of their above-average GHGE and cost. More Sustainable diets had an above-average PANDiet score and a below-average energy density, cost, GHGE, and energy content; the energy share of plant-based products was increased by 20% and 15% compared with the average for men and women, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: A strength of this study was that most of the dimensions for "sustainable diets" were considered, ie, not only nutritional quality and GHGE but also affordability and cultural acceptability. A reduction in diet-related GHGE by 20% while maintaining high nutritional quality seems realistic. This goal could be achieved at no extra cost by reducing energy intake and energy density and increasing the share of plant-based products.

The cost-effectiveness of the LighterLife weight management programme as an intervention for obesity in England.

LighterLife Total is a very low calorie diet total dietary replacement weight reduction programme that provides Foodpacks, behavioural change therapy and group support appropriate for people with a body mass index of 30 kg m(-2) or above. A model was built to assess the cost-effectiveness of LighterLife Total, compared with (i) no treatment, Counterweight, Weight Watchers and Slimming World, as a treatment for obesity in those with a body mass index of 30 kg m(-2) or above, and (ii) no treatment, gastric banding and gastric bypass in those with a body mass index of 40 kg m(-2) or above. Change in body mass index over time was modelled, and prevalence of comorbidities (diabetes, coronary heart disease and colorectal cancer) was calculated. Costs (of intervention and treatment for comorbidities) and quality-adjusted life years were calculated. LighterLife Total was cost-effective against no treatment, Counterweight, Weight Watchers and Slimming World in the 30+ kg m(-2) group (incremental cost-effectiveness ratios: £11 895, £12 453, £12 585 and £12 233, respectively). In the 40+ kg m(-2) group, LighterLife Total was cost-effective against no treatment (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio: £4356), but less effective than gastric banding and bypass.

Influence of pre-slaughtering feed restriction on muscle characteristics of farmed sea bass (Dicentrarchus labrax L.) during cold storage.

BACKGROUND: This paper deals with the consequences of dietary restriction or complete starvation before slaughtering on the biochemical and textural characteristics of sea bass muscle. RESULTS: Results showed that only severe feed restriction influenced negatively total body and individual organ weights, and these animals showed lower condition factor as well. Neither moderate feed restriction (up to 50% of the standard ration) kept for 30 days nor total starvation up to 12 days caused significant effects on fish weight and fillet yield. Muscle lipid content was lower in feed-restricted fish, although this parameter was not altered by starvation time. Differences between the two feeding strategies studied were observed in muscle textural and biochemical parameters, and the results point to an influence of the nutritional status on the post-mortem evolution of collagen and myofibrillar proteins, although firmness was not modified. CONCLUSIONS: Moderate feed restriction prior to slaughtering could be advisable in sea bass culture, given that no detrimental effects on fish quality or fish performance were noticed, whereas substantial amounts of feed can be saved.

Cost-effectiveness of diet and exercise interventions to reduce overweight and obesity.

OBJECTIVE: To analyze whether two dietary weight loss interventions--the dietary approaches to stop hypertension (DASH) program and a low-fat diet program--would be cost-effective in Australia, and to assess their potential to reduce the disease burden related to excess body weight. DESIGN: We constructed a multi-state life-table-based Markov model in which the distribution of body weight influences the incidence of stroke, ischemic heart disease, hypertensive heart disease, diabetes mellitus, osteoarthritis, post-menopausal breast cancer, colon cancer, endometrial cancer and kidney cancer. The target population was the overweight and obese adult population in Australia in 2003. We used a lifetime horizon for health effects and costs, and a health sector perspective for costs. We populated the model with data identified from Medline and Cochrane searches, Australian Bureau of Statistics published catalogues, Australian Institute of Health and Welfare, and Department of Health and Ageing. OUTCOME MEASURES: Disability adjusted life years (DALYs) averted, incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) and proportions of disease burden avoided. ICERs under AUS$50,000 per DALY are considered cost-effective. RESULTS: The DASH and low-fat diet programs have ICERs of AUS$12,000 per DALY (95% uncertainty range: Cost-saving- 68,000) and AUS$13,000 per DALY (Cost-saving--130,000), respectively. Neither intervention reduced the body weight-related disease burden at population level by more than 0.1%. The sensitivity analysis showed that when participants' costs for time and travel are included, the ICERs increase to AUS$75,000 per DALY for DASH and AUS$49,000 per DALY for the low-fat diet. Modest weight loss during the interventions, post-intervention weight regain and low participation limit the health benefits. CONCLUSION: Diet and exercise interventions to reduce obesity are potentially cost-effective but have a negligible impact on the total body weight-related disease burden.

Potential health benefits and medical cost savings from calorie, sodium, and saturated fat reductions in the American diet.

PURPOSE: Model the potential national health benefits and medical savings from reduced daily intake of calories, sodium, and saturated fat among the U.S. adult population. DESIGN: Simulation based on secondary data analysis; quantitative research. Measures include the prevalence of overweight/obesity, uncontrolled hypertension, elevated cholesterol, and related chronic conditions under various hypothetical dietary changes. SETTING: United States. SUBJECTS: Two hundred twenty-four million adults. MEASURES: Findings come from a Nutrition Impact Model that combines information from national surveys, peer-reviewed studies, and government reports. ANALYSIS: The simulation model predicts disease prevalence and medical expenditures under hypothetical dietary change scenarios. RESULTS: We estimate that permanent 100-kcal reductions in daily intake would eliminate approximately 71.2 million cases of overweight/obesity and save $58 billion annually. Long-term sodium intake reductions of 400 mg/d in those with uncontrolled hypertension would eliminate about 1.5 million cases, saving $2.3 billion annually. Decreasing 5 g/d of saturated fat intake in those with elevated cholesterol would eliminate 3.9 million cases, saving $2.0 billion annually. CONCLUSIONS: Modest to aggressive changes in diet can improve health and reduce annual national medical expenditures by $60 billion to $120 billion. One use of the model is to estimate the impact of dietary change related to setting public health priorities for dietary guidance. The findings here argue that emphasis on reduction in caloric intake should be the highest priority.

Predicted national productivity implications of calorie and sodium reductions in the American diet.

PURPOSE: To model the potential long-term national productivity benefits from reduced daily intake of calories and sodium. DESIGN: Simulation based on secondary data analysis; quantitative research. Measures include absenteeism, presenteeism, disability, and premature mortality under various hypothetical dietary changes. SETTING: United States. SUBJECTS: Two hundred twenty-five million adults. MEASURES: Findings come from a Nutrition Impact Model that combines information from national surveys, peer-reviewed studies, and government reports. ANALYSIS: We compare current estimates of national productivity loss associated with overweight, obesity, and hypertension to estimates for hypothetical scenarios in which national prevalence of these risk factors is lower. Using the simulation model, we illustrate how modest dietary change can achieve lower national prevalence of excess weight and hypertension. RESULTS: We estimate that permanent 100-kcal reductions in daily intake among the overweight/obese would eliminate approximately 71.2 million cases of overweight/obesity. In the long term, this could increase national productivity by $45.7 billion annually. Long-term sodium reductions of 400 mg in those with uncontrolled hypertension would eliminate about 1.5 million cases, potentially increasing productivity by $2.5 billion annually. More aggressive diet changes of 500 kcal and 1100 mg of sodium reductions yield potential productivity benefits of $133.3 and $5.8 billion, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The potential long-term benefit of reduced calories and sodium, combining medical cost savings with productivity increases, ranges from $108.5 billion for moderate reductions to $255.6 billion for aggressive reductions. These findings help inform public health policy and the business case for improving diet. (AmJ Health Promot 2009;23[6]:423-430.)

Cost-effectiveness of a low-calorie diet and orlistat for obese persons: modeling long-term health gains through prevention of obesity-related chronic diseases.

OBJECTIVE: Our study estimated the cost-effectiveness of pharmacologic treatment of obesity in combination with a low-calorie diet in The Netherlands. METHODS: Costs and effects of a low-calorie diet-only intervention and of a low-calorie diet in combination with 1 year of orlistat were compared to no treatment. The RIVM Chronic Disease Model was used to project the differences in quality adjusted life years (QALYs) and lifetime health-care costs because of the effects of the interventions on body mass index (BMI) status. This was done by linking BMI status to the occurrence of obesity-related diseases and by relating quality of life to disease status. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis was employed to study the effect of uncertainty in the model parameters. In univariate sensitivity analysis, we assessed how sensitive the results were to several key assumptions. RESULTS: Incremental costs per QALY gained were Euro 17,900 for the low-calorie diet-only intervention compared to no intervention and Euro 58,800 for the low-calorie diet + orlistat compared to the low-calorie diet only. Assuming a direct relation between BMI and quality of life, these ratios decreased to Euro 6000 per QALY gained and Euro 24,100 per QALY gained. Costs per QALY gained were also sensitive to assumptions about long-term weight loss maintenance. CONCLUSIONS: Cost-effectiveness ratios of interventions aiming at weight reduction depend strongly on assumptions regarding the relation between BMI and quality of life. We recommend that a low-calorie diet should be the first option for policymakers in combating obesity.