Trend of Mortality Due to Congenital Anomalies in Children Younger Than 5 Years in Eastern China, 2012-2021: Surveillance Data Analysis.

BACKGROUND: As one of the leading causes of child mortality, deaths due to congenital anomalies (CAs) have been a prominent obstacle to meet Sustainable Development Goal 3.2. OBJECTIVE: We conducted this study to understand the death burden and trend of under-5 CA mortality (CAMR) in Zhejiang, one of the provinces with the best medical services and public health foundations in Eastern China. METHODS: We used data retrieved from the under-5 mortality surveillance system in Zhejiang from 2012 to 2021. CAMR by sex, residence, and age group for each year was calculated and standardized according to 2020 National Population Census sex- and residence-specific live birth data in China. Poisson regression models were used to estimate the annual average change rate (AACR) of CAMR and to obtain the rate ratio between subgroups after adjusting for sex, residence, and age group when appropriate. RESULTS: From 2012 to 2021, a total of 1753 children died from CAs, and the standardized CAMR declined from 121.2 to 62.6 per 100,000 live births with an AACR of -9% (95% CI -10.7% to -7.2%; P<.001). The declining trend was also observed in female and male children, urban and rural children, and neonates and older infants, and the AACRs were -9.7%, -8.5%, -8.5%, -9.2%, -12%, and -6.3%, respectively (all P<.001). However, no significant reduction was observed in children aged 1-4 years (P=.22). Generally, the CAMR rate ratios for male versus female children, rural versus urban children, older infants versus neonates, and older children versus neonates were 1.18 (95% CI 1.08-1.30; P<.001), 1.20 (95% CI 1.08-1.32; P=.001), 0.66 (95% CI 0.59-0.73; P<.001), and 0.20 (95% CI 0.17-0.24; P<.001), respectively. Among all broad CA groups, circulatory system malformations, mainly deaths caused by congenital heart diseases, accounted for 49.4% (866/1753) of deaths and ranked first across all years, although it declined yearly with an AACR of -9.8% (P<.001). Deaths due to chromosomal abnormalities tended to grow in recent years, although the AACR was not significant (P=.90). CONCLUSIONS: CAMR reduced annually, with cardiovascular malformations ranking first across all years in Zhejiang, China. Future research and practices should focus more on the prevention, early detection, long-term management of CAs and comprehensive support for families with children with CAs to improve their survival chances.

Reducing childhood mortality extends mothers' lives.

During the twentieth century, childhood mortality was dramatically reduced globally, falling by more than 90% in the United States and much of Europe. Total fertility also fell, with the combined result that many parents who otherwise would have experienced the loss of a child were spared the trauma and negative health consequences that accompany such a loss. Here I use mathematical modeling to argue that the reduction in the frequency of child death that occurred in the twentieth century indirectly led to a substantial reduction in female mortality, resulting in an extension of female lifespan. I estimate that the reduction in maternal bereavement in the US during the twentieth century indirectly increased mean female lifespan after age 15 by approximately 1 year. I discuss implications for our understanding of the persistence of the sex gap in longevity and approaches to improving maternal health outcomes in countries that still face high levels of childhood mortality.

High-risk space-time clusters of mortality in children 5 to 14 years of age in Mato Grosso state, Brazil. / Clusters Espaço-Temporais de Alto Risco da Mortalidade Infantojuvenil em Mato Grosso, Brasil.

The study aimed to detect high-risk areas for deaths of children and adolescents 5 to 14 years of age in the state of Mato Grosso, Brazil, from 2009 to 2020. This was an exploratory ecological study with municipalities as the units of analysis. Considering mortality data from the Mortality Information System (SIM) and demographic data from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), the study used multivariate statistics to identify space-time clusters of excess mortality risk in this age group. From 5 to 9 years of age, two clusters with high mortality risk were detected; the most likely located in the state's southern mesoregion (RR: 1.6; LRT: 8,53). Among the 5 clusters detected in the 10-14-year age group, the main cluster was in the state's northern mesoregion (RR: 2,26; LRT: 7,84). A reduction in mortality rates was observed in the younger age group and an increase in these rates in the older group. The identification of these clusters, whose analysis merits replication in other parts of Brazil, is the initial stage in the investigation of possible factors associated with morbidity and mortality in this group, still insufficiently explored, and for planning adequate interventions.

O objetivo deste estudo é detectar as áreas de maior risco para óbitos de crianças e adolescentes de 5 a 14 anos no estado de Mato Grosso entre os anos de 2009 e 2020. Estudo ecológico, tipo exploratório, cuja unidade de análise foram os municípios. Considerando dados de mortalidade do SIM e os demográficos do IBGE, o estudo utilizou a estatística multivariada para a identificação dos clusters espaço-temporais de sobrerrisco de mortalidade nesta faixa etária. Dos 5 aos 9 anos, dois clusters de alto risco de mortalidade foram detectados; o mais provável localizado na mesorregião sul (RR: 1,6; LRV: 8,53). Dentre os 5 clusters detectados na faixa etária dos 10 aos 14 anos, o principal foi localizado na mesorregião norte (RR: 2,26; LRV: 7,84). Foi identificada redução das taxas de mortalidade na faixa etária mais jovem e aumento destas taxas na faixa etária mais velha. A identificação destes clusters, cuja análise merece ser replicada a outras partes do território nacional, é a etapa inicial para a investigação de possíveis fatores associados à morbi-mortalidade deste grupo ainda pouco explorado e para o planejamento de intervenções adequadas.

Early-Neonatal, Late-Neonatal, Postneonatal, and Child Mortality Rates Across India, 1993-2021.

Importance: The global success of the child survival agenda depends on how rapidly mortality at early ages after birth declines in India, and changes need to be monitored to evaluate the status. Objective: To understand the disaggregated patterns of decrease in early-life mortality across states and union territories (UTs) of India. Design, Setting, and Participants: Repeated cross-sectional data from the 5 rounds of the National Family Health Survey conducted in 1992-1993, 1998-1999, 2005-2006, 2015-2016, and 2019-2021 were used in a representative population-based study. The study was based on data of children born in the past 5 years with complete information on date of birth and age at death. The analysis was conducted in February 2024. Exposure: Time and geographic units. Main Outcomes and Measures: Mortality rates were computed for 4 early-life periods: early-neonatal (first 7 days), late-neonatal (8-28 days), postneonatal (29 days to 11 months), and child (12-59 months). For early and late neonatal periods, the rates are expressed as deaths per 1000 live births, for postneonatal, as deaths per 1000 children aged at least 29 days and for child, deaths per 1000 children aged at least 1 year. These are collectively mentioned as deaths per 1000 for all mortalities. The relative burden of each of the age-specific mortalities to total mortality in children younger than 5 years was also computed. Results: The final analytical sample included 33 667 (1993), 29 549 (1999), 23 020 (2006), 82 294 (2016), and 64 242 (2021) children who died before their fifth birthday in the past 5 years of each survey. Mortality rates were lowest for the late-neonatal and child periods; early-neonatal was the highest in 2021. Child mortality experienced the most substantial decrease between 1993 and 2021, from 33.5 to 6.9 deaths per 1000, accompanied by a substantial reduction in interstate inequalities. While early-neonatal (from 33.5 to 20.3 deaths per 1000), late-neonatal (from 14.1 to 4.1 deaths per 1000), and postneonatal (from 31.0 to 10.8 deaths per 1000) mortality also decreased, interstate inequalities remained notable. The mortality burden shifted over time and is now concentrated during the early-neonatal (48.3% of total deaths in children younger than 5 years) and postneonatal (25.6%) periods. A stagnation or worsening for certain states and UTs was observed from 2016 to 2021 for early-neonatal, late-neonatal, and postneonatal mortality. If this pattern continues, these states and UTs will not meet the United Nations Sustainable Development Goal targets related to child survival. Conclusions and Relevance: In this repeated cross-sectional study of 5 time periods, the decrease in mortality during early-neonatal and postneonatal phases of mortality was relatively slower, with notable variations across states and UTs. The findings suggest that policies pertaining to early-neonatal and postneonatal mortalities need to be prioritized and targeting of policies and interventions needs to be context-specific.

Retrospective analysis of mortality among children under 5 years of age in Huangshi over the period 2002-2022, China.

BACKGROUND: The United Nations' Millennium Development Goals and Sustainable Development Goals both underscore the critical need to reduce the under-five mortality rate globally. China has made remarkable progress in decreasing the mortality rate of children under five. This study aims to examine the trends in child mortality rates from 2002 to 2022 and the causes of deaths among neonates, infants, and children under 5 years of age from 2013 to 2022 in Huangshi. METHODS: The data resource was supported and provided by the Huangshi Health Commission, Huangshi Maternal and Child Health Hospital, and the Huangshi Statistics Bureau. Figures were drawn using Origin 2021. RESULTS: The mortality rate among children under 5 years old significantly decreased, from 21.38 per 1,000 live births in 2002 to 3.53 per 1,000 live births in 2022. The infant mortality rate also saw a significant decline, to 15.06 per 1,000 live births. Among the 1,929 recorded child deaths from 2013 to 2022, the top three causes were: F2 (Disorders related to short gestation and low birth weight), accounting for 17.26% (333 deaths); I1 (Accidental drowning and submersion), for 14.83% (286 deaths); and I3 (Other accidental threats to breathing), for 12.29% (237 deaths). Of the 1,929 deaths, 1,117 were male children, representing 57.91%. The gender disparity in the Under-5 Mortality Rate (U5MR) was calculated to be 1.38 (boys to girls). The leading causes of death under the age of five shifted from F2 (Disorders related to short gestation and low birth weight) to I1 (Accidental drowning and submersion) as children aged, highlighting the need for policymakers and parents to intensify care and vigilance for children. CONCLUSIONS: Huangshi has achieved significant progress in lowering child mortality rates over the past two decades. The study calls for policymakers to enact more effective measures to further reduce the mortality rate among children under 5 years of age in Huangshi. Furthermore, it advises parents to dedicate more time and effort to supervising and nurturing their children, promoting a safer and healthier development.

Action against birth defects: if not now, when?

BACKGROUND: More children are surviving through interventions to address the infectious causes of under-5 mortality; subsequently, the proportion of deaths caused by birth defects is increasing. Prevention, diagnosis, treatment and care interventions for birth defects are available but are needed where the burden is highest, low-and-middle-income countries. OBJECTIVES: A selection of birth defect focused publications, conferences, and World Health Assembly resolutions from 2000 to 2017 show that global efforts were made to raise the profile of birth defects in global public health. However, recent donor support and national government interest has waned. Without concerted global action to improve primary prevention and care for children born with birth defects, the Sustainable Development Goal targets for child survival will not be met. RESULTS: Birth defects make up 8% and 10% of global under-5 and neonatal deaths respectively, making them significant contributors to preventable loss of life for children. Survivors face long-term morbidity and lifelong disability which compounds the health and economic woes of individuals, families, communities and society as a whole. Demographic changes in sub-Saharan Africa portend a growing number of births with 1.6 billion projected from 2021 to 2050. More births and better survival without effective prevention and treatment for birth defects translates into more mortality and disability from birth defects. CONCLUSIONS: We recommend interventions for prevention of birth defects. These are evidenced-based and affordable, but require low- and middle-income countries to strengthened their health systems. Action against birth defects now will prevent premature deaths and long-term disability, and lead to stronger, more resilient health systems.

Early life ambient air pollution, household fuel use, and under-5 mortality in Ghana.

INTRODUCTION: Environmental exposures, such as ambient air pollution and household fuel use affect health and under-5 mortality (U5M) but there is a paucity of data in the Global South. This study examined early-life exposure to ambient particulate matter with a diameter of 2.5 µm or less (PM2.5), alongside household characteristics (including self-reported household fuel use), and their relationship with U5M in the Navrongo Health and Demographic Surveillance Site (HDSS) in northern Ghana. METHODS: We employed Satellite-based spatiotemporal models to estimate the annual average PM2.5 concentrations with the Navrongo HDSS area (1998 to 2016). Early-life exposure levels were determined by pollution estimates at birth year. Socio-demographic and household data, including cooking fuel, were gathered during routine surveillance. Cox proportional hazards models were applied to assess the link between early-life PM2.5 exposure and U5M, accounting for child, maternal, and household factors. FINDINGS: We retrospectively studied 48,352 children born between 2007 and 2017, with 1872 recorded deaths, primarily due to malaria, sepsis, and acute respiratory infection. Mean early-life PM2.5 was 39.3 µg/m3, and no significant association with U5M was observed. However, Children from households using "unclean" cooking fuels (wood, charcoal, dung, and agricultural waste) faced a 73 % higher risk of death compared to those using clean fuels (adjusted HR = 1.73; 95 % CI: 1.29, 2.33). Being born female or to mothers aged 20-34 years were linked to increased survival probabilities. INTERPRETATION: The use of "unclean" cooking fuel in the Navrongo HDSS was associated with under-5 mortality, highlighting the need to improve indoor air quality by introducing cleaner fuels.

Antenatal care coverage and early childhood mortality in Zimbabwe: new interpretations from nationally representative household surveys.

Zimbabwe has implemented universal antenatal care (ANC) policies since 1980 that have significantly contributed to improvements in ANC access and early childhood mortality rates. However, Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) and Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICS), two of Zimbabwe's main sources of health data and evidence, often provide seemingly different estimates of ANC coverage and under-five mortality rates. This creates confusion that can result in disparate policies and practices, with potential negative impacts on mother and child health in Zimbabwe. We conducted a comparability analysis of multiple DHS and MICS datasets to enhance the understanding of point estimates, temporal changes, rural-urban differences and reliability of estimates of ANC coverage and neonatal, infant and under-five mortality rates (NMR, IMR and U5MR, separately) from 2009 to 2019 in Zimbabwe. Our two samples z-tests revealed that both DHS and MICS indicated significant increases in ANC coverage and declines in IMR and U5MR but only from 2009 to 2015. NMR neither increased nor declined from 2009 to 2019. Rural-urban differences were significant for ANC coverage (2009-15 only) but not for NMR, IMR and U5MR. We found that there is a need for more precise DHS and MICS estimates of urban ANC coverage and all estimates of NMR, IMR and U5MR, and that shorter recall periods provide more reliable estimates of ANC coverage in Zimbabwe. Our findings represent new interpretations and clearer insights into progress and gaps around ANC coverage and under-five mortality rates that can inform the development, implementation, monitoring and evaluation of policy and practice responses and further research in Zimbabwe.

Mother, child and adolescent health outcomes in two long-term refugee camp settings at the Thai-Myanmar border 2000-2018: a retrospective analysis.

AIM: The study assessed mothers, children and adolescents' health (MCAH) outcomes in the context of a Primary Health Care (PHC) project and associated costs in two protracted long-term refugee camps, along the Thai-Myanmar border. BACKGROUND: Myanmar refugees settled in Thailand nearly 40 years ago, in a string of camps along the border, where they fully depend on external support for health and social services. Between 2000 and 2018, a single international NGO has been implementing an integrated PHC project. METHODS: This retrospective study looked at the trends of MCAH indicators of mortality and morbidity and compared them to the sustainable development goals (SDGs) indicators. A review of programme documents explored and triangulated the evolution and changing context of the PHC services, and associated project costs were analysed. To verify changes over time, interviews with 12 key informants were conducted. FINDINGS: While maternal mortality (SDG3.1) remained high at 126.5/100,000 live births, child mortality (SDG 3.2) and infectious diseases in children under 5 (SDG 3.3) fell by 69% and by up to 92%, respectively. Maternal anaemia decreased by 30%; and more than 90% of pregnant women attended four or more antenatal care visits, whereas 80% delivered by a skilled birth attendant; caesarean section rates rose but remained low at an average of 3.7%; the adolescent (15-19 years) birth rate peaked at 188 per 1000 in 2015 but declined to 89/1000 in 2018 (SDG 3.7). CONCLUSION: Comprehensive PHC delivery, with improved health provider competence in MCAH care, together with secured funding is an appropriate strategy to bring MCAH indicators to acceptable levels. However, inequities due to confinement in camps, fragmentation of specific health services, prevent fulfilment of the 2030 SDG Agenda to 'Leave no one behind'. Costs per birth was 115 EURO in 2018; however, MCAH expenditure requires further exploration over a longer period.

Contribution of vaccination to improved survival and health: modelling 50 years of the Expanded Programme on Immunization.

BACKGROUND: WHO, as requested by its member states, launched the Expanded Programme on Immunization (EPI) in 1974 to make life-saving vaccines available to all globally. To mark the 50-year anniversary of EPI, we sought to quantify the public health impact of vaccination globally since the programme's inception. METHODS: In this modelling study, we used a suite of mathematical and statistical models to estimate the global and regional public health impact of 50 years of vaccination against 14 pathogens in EPI. For the modelled pathogens, we considered coverage of all routine and supplementary vaccines delivered since 1974 and estimated the mortality and morbidity averted for each age cohort relative to a hypothetical scenario of no historical vaccination. We then used these modelled outcomes to estimate the contribution of vaccination to globally declining infant and child mortality rates over this period. FINDINGS: Since 1974, vaccination has averted 154 million deaths, including 146 million among children younger than 5 years of whom 101 million were infants younger than 1 year. For every death averted, 66 years of full health were gained on average, translating to 10·2 billion years of full health gained. We estimate that vaccination has accounted for 40% of the observed decline in global infant mortality, 52% in the African region. In 2024, a child younger than 10 years is 40% more likely to survive to their next birthday relative to a hypothetical scenario of no historical vaccination. Increased survival probability is observed even well into late adulthood. INTERPRETATION: Since 1974 substantial gains in childhood survival have occurred in every global region. We estimate that EPI has provided the single greatest contribution to improved infant survival over the past 50 years. In the context of strengthening primary health care, our results show that equitable universal access to immunisation remains crucial to sustain health gains and continue to save future lives from preventable infectious mortality. FUNDING: WHO.

Prolonged mass azithromycin distributions and macrolide resistance determinants among preschool children in Niger: A sub-study of a cluster-randomized trial (MORDOR).

BACKGROUND: Randomized controlled trials found that twice-yearly mass azithromycin administration (MDA) reduces childhood mortality, presumably by reducing infection burden. World Health Organization (WHO) issued conditional guidelines for mass azithromycin administration in high-mortality settings in sub-Saharan Africa given concerns for antibiotic resistance. While prolonged twice-yearly MDA has been shown to increase antibiotic resistance in small randomized controlled trials, the objective of this study was to determine if macrolide and non-macrolide resistance in the gut increases with the duration of azithromycin MDA in a larger setting. METHODS AND FINDINGS: The Macrolide Oraux pour Réduire les Décès avec un Oeil sur la Résistance (MORDOR) study was conducted in Niger from December 2014 to June 2020. It was a cluster-randomized trial of azithromycin (A) versus placebo (P) aimed at evaluating childhood mortality. This is a sub-study in the MORDOR trial to track changes in antibiotic resistance after prolonged azithromycin MDA. A total of 594 communities were eligible. Children 1 to 59 months in 163 randomly chosen communities were eligible to receive treatment and included in resistance monitoring. Participants, staff, and investigators were masked to treatment allocation. At the conclusion of MORDOR Phase I, by design, all communities received an additional year of twice-yearly azithromycin treatments (Phase II). Thus, at the conclusion of Phase II, the treatment history (1 letter per 6-month period) for the participating communities was either (PP-PP-AA) or (AA-AA-AA). In Phase III, participating communities were then re-randomized to receive either another 3 rounds of azithromycin or placebo, thus resulting in 4 treatment histories: Group 1 (AA-AA-AA-AA-A, N = 51), Group 2 (PP-PP-AA-AA-A, N = 40), Group 3 (AA-AA-AA-PP-P, N = 27), and Group 4 (PP-PP-AA-PP-P, N = 32). Rectal swabs from each child (N = 5,340) were obtained 6 months after the last treatment. Each child contributed 1 rectal swab and these were pooled at the community level, processed for DNA-seq, and analyzed for genetic resistance determinants. The primary prespecified outcome was macrolide resistance determinants in the gut. Secondary outcomes were resistance to beta-lactams and other antibiotic classes. Communities recently randomized to azithromycin (groups 1 and 2) had significantly more macrolide resistance determinants than those recently randomized to placebo (groups 3 and 4) (fold change 2.18, 95% CI 1.5 to 3.51, Punadj < 0.001). However, there was no significant increase in macrolide resistance in communities treated 4.5 years (group 1) compared to just the most recent 2.5 years (group 2) (fold change 0.80, 95% CI 0.50 to 1.00, Padj = 0.010), or between communities that had been treated for 3 years in the past (group 3) versus just 1 year in the past (group 4) (fold change 1.00, 95% CI 0.78 to 2.35, Padj = 0.52). We also found no significant differences for beta-lactams or other antibiotic classes. The main limitations of our study were the absence of phenotypic characterization of resistance, no complete placebo arm, and no monitoring outside of Niger limiting generalizability. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we observed that mass azithromycin distribution for childhood mortality among preschool children in Niger increased macrolide resistance determinants in the gut but that resistance may plateau after 2 to 3 years of treatment. Co-selection to other classes needs to be monitored. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT02047981 https://classic.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT02047981.

Can primary health care mitigate the effects of economic crises on child health in Latin America? An integrated multicountry evaluation and forecasting analysis.

BACKGROUND: Latin American and Caribbean countries are dealing with the combined challenges of pandemic-induced socicoeconomic stress and increasing public debt, potentially leading to reductions in welfare and health-care services, including primary care. We aimed to evaluate the impact of primary health-care coverage on child mortality in Latin America over the past two decades and to forecast the potential effects of primary health-care mitigation during the current economic crisis. METHODS: This multicountry study integrated retrospective impact evaluations in Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, and Mexico from 2000 to 2019 with forecasting models covering up to 2030. We estimated the impact of coverage of primary health care on mortality rates in children younger than 5 years (hereafter referred to as under-5 mortality) across different age groups and causes of death, adjusting for all relevant demographic, socioeconomic, and health-care factors, with fixed-effects multivariable negative binomial models in 5647 municipalities with an adequate quality of vital statistics. We also performed several sensitivity and triangulation analyses. We integrated previous longitudinal datasets with validated dynamic microsimulation models and projected trends in under-5 mortality rates under alternative policy response scenarios until 2030. FINDINGS: High primary health-care coverage was associated with substantial reductions in post-neonatal mortality rates (rate ratio [RR] 0·72, 95% CI 0·71-0·74), toddler (ie, aged between 1 year and <5 years) mortality rates (0·75, 0·73-0·76), and under-5 mortality rates (0·81, 0·80-0·82), preventing 305 890 (95% CI 251 826-360 517) deaths of children younger than 5 years over the period 2000-19. High primary health-care coverage was also associated with lower under-5 mortality rates from nutritional deficiencies (RR 0·55, 95% CI 0·52-0·58), anaemia (0·64, 0·57-0·72), vaccine-preventable and vaccine-sensitive conditions (0·70, 0·68-0·72), and infectious gastroenteritis (0·78, 0·73-0·84). Considering a scenario of moderate economic crisis, a mitigation response strategy implemented in the period 2020-30 that increases primary health-care coverage could reduce the under-5 mortality rate by up to 23% (RR 0·77, 95% CI 0·72-0·84) when compared with a fiscal austerity response, and this strategy would avoid 142 285 (95% CI 120 217-164 378) child deaths by 2030 in Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, and Mexico. INTERPRETATION: The improvement in primary health-care coverage in Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, and Mexico over the past two decades has substantially contributed to improving child survival. Expansion of primary health-care coverage should be considered an effective strategy to mitigate the health effects of the current economic crisis and to achieve Sustainable Development Goals related to child health. FUNDING: UK Medical Research Council. TRANSLATIONS: For the Spanish and Portuguese translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

[The mortality of children population].

The article presents comprehensive medical statistical analysis of indicators and causes of mortality of children population of the Russian Federation in 2017-2021. It is emphasized that in Russia, in conditions of extremely unfavorable demographic situation, the hyper actual task is to preserve life of every child. It is demonstrated that crucial role in mortality of children population is played by not only infant mortality and mortality of children aged 1-4 years, but also by mortality of children of older ages. The children population mortality still keeps gender and residence differences. The problem of reliable registration of infant mortality is to be revisited since part of newborns born alive are classified after birth as stillborn. Beginning from 2018, the first place was taken by the class "Injuries, poisonings and some other consequences of external causes" driving back the class "Individual conditions occurring in perinatal period". Thus, measures of preventing negative impact of social factors on children health continue to be an important component of modern system of health care of children population. The directions of measures reducing children mortality in Russia are proposed.

Survival among children under-five in India: a parametric multilevel survival approach.

BACKGROUND: Many studies have been conducted on under-five mortality in India and most of them focused on the associations between individual-level factors and under-five mortality risks. On the contrary, only a scarce number of literatures talked about contextual level effect on under-five mortality. Hence, it is very important to have thorough study of under-five mortality at various levels. This can be done by applying multilevel analysis, a method that assesses both fixed and random effects in a single model. The multilevel analysis allows extracting the influence of individual and community characteristics on under-five mortality. Hence, this study would contribute substantially in understanding the under-five mortality from a different perspective. METHOD: The study used data from the Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) acquired in India, i.e., the fourth round of National Family and Health Survey (2015-16). It is a nationally representative repeated cross-sectional data. Multilevel Parametric Survival Model (MPSM) was employed to assess the influence of contextual correlates on the outcome. The assumption behind this study is that 'individuals' (i.e., level-1) are nested within 'districts' (i.e., level-2), and districts are enclosed within 'states' (i.e., level-3). This suggests that people have varying health conditions, residing in dissimilar communities with different characteristics. RESULTS: Highest under-five mortality i.e., 3.85% are happening among those women whose birth interval is less than two years. In case of parity, around 4% under-five mortality is among women with Third and above order parity. Further, findings from the full model is that ICC values of 1.17 and 0.65% are the correlation of the likelihood of having under-five mortality risk among people residing in the state and district communities, respectively. Besides, the risk of dying was increased alarmingly in the first year of life and slowly to aged 3 years and then it remains steady. CONCLUSION: This study has revealed that both aspects viz. individual and contextual effect of the community are necessary to address the importance variations in under-five mortality in India. In order to ensure substantial reduction in under-five mortality, findings of the study support some policy initiatives that involves the need to think beyond individual level effects and considering contextual characteristics.

Excess Child Mortality Associated With Colombia's Armed Conflict, 1998-2019.

Importance: Armed conflicts are directly and indirectly associated with morbidity and mortality due to destruction of health infrastructure and diversion of resources, forced displacement, environmental damage, and erosion of social and economic security. Colombia's conflict began in the 1940s and has been uniquely long-lasting and geographically dynamic. Objective: To estimate the proportion of infant and child mortality associated with armed conflict exposure from 1998 to 2019 in Colombia. Design, Setting, and Participants: This ecological cohort study includes data from all 1122 municipalities in Colombia from 1998 to 2019. Statistical analysis was conducted from February 2022 to June 2023. Exposure: Armed conflict exposure was measured dichotomously by the occurrence of conflict-related events in each municipality-year, enumerated and reported by the Colombian National Center for Historic Memory. Main Outcomes and Measures: Deaths among children younger than 5 years and deaths among infants younger than 1 year, offset by the number of births in that municipality-year, enumerated by Colombia's national vital statistics. Results: The analytical sample included 24 157 municipality-years and 223 101 conflict events covering the period from 1998 to 2019. Overall, the presence of armed conflict in a municipality was associated with a 52% increased risk of death for children younger than 5 years of age (relative risk, 1.52 [95% CI, 1.34-1.72]), with similar results for 1- and 5-year lagged analyses. Armed conflict was associated with a 61% increased risk in infant (aged <1 year) death (relative risk, 1.61 [95% CI, 1.43-1.82]). On the absolute scale, this translates to a risk difference of 3.7 excess child deaths per 1000 births (95% CI, 2.7-4.7 per 1000 births) and 3.0 excess infant deaths per 1000 births (95% CI, 2.3-3.6 per 1000 births) per year, beyond what would be expected in the absence of armed conflict. Across the 22-year study period, the population attributable risk was 31.7% (95% CI, 23.5%-39.1%) for child deaths and 35.3% (95% CI, 27.8%-42.0%) for infant deaths. Conclusions and Relevance: This ecological cohort study of Colombia's spatiotemporally dynamic armed conflict suggests that municipal exposure to armed conflict was associated with excess child and infant deaths. With a record number of children living near active conflict zones in 2020, policy makers and health professionals should understand the magnitude of and manner in which armed conflicts directly and indirectly undermine child health.

Association between maternal health service utilization and under-five mortality rate in China and its provinces, 1990-2017.

BACKGROUND: The United Nations (UN) Sustainable Development Goal - 3.2 aims to eliminate all preventable under-five mortality rate (U5MR). In China, government have made efforts to provide maternal health services and reduce U5MR. Hence, we aimed to explore maternal health service utilization in relation to U5MR in China and its provinces in 1990-2017. METHODS: We obtained data from Global Burden of Disease 2017, China Health Statistics Yearbook, China Statistical Yearbook, and Human Development Report China Special Edition. The trend of U5MR in each province of China from 1990 to 2017 was analyzed using Joinpoint Regression model. We measured the inequities in maternal health services using HEAT Plus, a health inequity measurement tool developed by the UN. The generalized estimating equation model was used to explore the association between maternal health service utilization (including prenatal screening, hospital delivery and postpartum visits) and U5MR. RESULTS: First, in China, the U5MR per 1000 live births decreased from 50 in 1990 to 12 in 2017 and the average annual percentage change (AAPC) was - 5.2 (p < 0.05). Secondly, China had a high maternal health service utilization in 2017, with 96.5% for prenatal visits, 99.9% for hospital delivery, and 94% for postnatal visits. Inequity in maternal health services between provinces is declining, with hospital delivery rate showing the greatest decrease (SII, 14.01 to 1.87, 2010 to 2017). Third, an increase in the rate of hospital delivery rate can significantly reduce U5MR (OR 0.991, 95%CI 0.987 to 0.995). Postpartum visits rate with a one-year lag can reduce U5MR (OR 0.993, 95%CI 0.987 to 0.999). However, prenatal screening rate did not have a significant effect on U5MR. CONCLUSION: The decline in U5MR in China was associated with hospital delivery and postpartum visits. The design and implementation of maternal health services may provide references to other low-income and middle-income countries.

Global vaccine coverage and childhood survival estimates: 1990-2019.

Objective: To quantify the association between reduction in child mortality and routine immunization across 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. Methods: We used child mortality and vaccine coverage data from the Global Burden of Disease Study. We used a modified child survival framework and applied a mixed-effects regression model to estimate the reduction in deaths in children younger than 5 years associated with eight vaccines. Findings: Between 1990 and 2019, the diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis (DTP), measles, rotavirus and Haemophilus influenzae type b vaccines were significantly associated with an estimated 86.9 (95% confidence interval, CI: 57.2 to 132.4) million fewer deaths in children younger than 5 years worldwide. This decrease represented a 24.2% (95% CI: 19.8 to 28.9) reduction in deaths relative to a scenario without vaccines. The DTP and measles vaccines averted 46.7 (95% CI: 30.0 to 72.7) million and 37.9 (95% CI: 25.4 to 56.8) million deaths, respectively. Of the total reduction in child mortality associated with vaccines, 84.2% (95% CI: 83.0 to 85.1) occurred in 73 countries supported by Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, with an estimated 45.4 (95% CI: 29.8 to 69.2) million fewer deaths from 2000 to 2019. The largest reductions in deaths associated with these four vaccines were in India, China, Ethiopia, Pakistan and Bangladesh (in order of the size of reduction). Conclusion: Vaccines continue to reduce childhood mortality significantly, especially in Gavi-supported countries, emphasizing the need for increased investment in routine immunization programmes.

Investigation of Factors Influencing Infant Mortality at Greater Accra Regional Hospital, Ghana.

Background: Annually, 5.4 million children under five face mortality, with 2.5 million deaths in the first month, 1.6 million between one and eleven months, and 1.3 million aged one to four. Despite global strides, sub-Saharan Africa, including Ghana, grapples with persistent high child mortality. This study employs statistical methods to pinpoint factors driving under-five mortality in the Greater Accra Regional Hospital. Methods: The data was acquired from Greater Accra Regional Hospital, Ghana, spanning January to December 2020. The data comprised all under-five deaths recorded in the hospital in 2020. The statistical tools employed were the chi-square test of association and the multinomial logistic regression model. Results: In 2020, there were 238 cases of under-five mortality recorded in the hospital, with males constituting the majority (55%). About 85% of these cases occurred within the first month of birth, primarily attributed to respiratory distress, prematurity, and sepsis. Notably, meconium aspiration was the least common among grouped diagnoses. The test of association and multinomial logistic model emphasised the child's age, birth type, and weight at birth as significant factors influencing child mortality. Conversely, attributes like sex, marital status, and mother's age displayed no notable association with the diagnosis of death. Conclusion: The study on child mortality at the Greater Accra Regional Hospital unveils key factors shaping child health outcomes, emphasising the role of age, birth type, and weight. While specific demographics show no significant association, identified predictors are vital for targeted interventions. Proposed strategies encompass education programs, improved care, birthing practices, and data-driven policies.

Self-Determination in Global Health Practices - Voices from the Global South.

Despite the commendable progress made in addressing global health challenges and threats such as child mortality, HIV/AIDS, and Tuberculosis, many global health organizations still exhibit a Global North supremacy attitude, evidenced by their choice of leaders and executors of global health initiatives in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). While efforts by the Global North to support global health practice in LMICs have led to economic development and advancement in locally led research, current global health practices tend to focus solely on intervention outcomes, often neglecting important systemic factors such as intellectual property ownership, sustainability, diversification of leadership roles, and national capacity development. This has resulted in the implementation of practices and systems informed by high-income countries (HICs) to the detriment of knowledge systems in LMICs, as they are deprived of the opportunity to generate local solutions for local problems. From their unique position as international global health fellows located in different African countries and receiving graduate education from a HIC institution, the authors of this viewpoint article assess how HIC institutions can better support LMICs. The authors propose several strategies for achieving equitable global health practices; 1) allocating funding to improve academic and research infrastructures in LMICs; 2) encouraging effective partnerships and collaborations with Global South scientists who have lived experiences in LMICs; 3) reviewing the trade-related aspects of intellectual property Rights (TRIPS) agreement; and 4) achieving equity in global health funding and education resources.