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1.
Lancet Infect Dis ; 21(10): 1407-1414, 2021 10.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34146473

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Killed whole-cell oral cholera vaccines (OCVs) are widely used for prevention of cholera in developing countries. However, few studies have evaluated the protection conferred by internationally recommended OCVs for durations beyond 2 years of follow-up. METHODS: In this study, we followed up the participants of a cluster-randomised controlled trial for 2 years after the end of the original trial. Originally, we had randomised 90 geographical clusters in Dhaka slums in Bangladesh in equal numbers (1:1:1) to a two-dose regimen of OCV alone (targeted to people aged 1 year or older), a two-dose regimen of OCV plus a water-sanitation-hygiene (WASH) intervention, or no intervention. There was no masking of group assignment. The WASH intervention conferred little additional protection to OCV and was discontinued at 2 years of follow-up. Surveillance for severe cholera was continued for 4 years. Because of the short duration and effect of the WASH intervention, we combined the two OCV intervention groups. The primary outcomes were OCV overall protection (protection of all members of the intervention clusters) and total protection (protection of individuals who got vaccinated in the intervention clusters) against severe cholera, which we assessed by multivariable survival models appropriate for cluster-randomised trials. This trial is registered on ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT01339845. FINDINGS: The study was done between April 17, 2011, and Nov 1, 2015. 268 896 participants were present at the time of the first dose, with 188 206 in the intervention group and 80 690 in the control group. OCV coverage of the two groups receiving OCV was 66% (123 659 of 187 214 participants). During 4 years of follow-up, 441 first episodes of severe cholera were detected (243 episodes in the vaccinated groups and as 198 episodes in the unvaccinated group). Overall OCV protection was 36% (95% CI 19 to 49%) and total OCV protection was 46% (95% CI 32 to 58). Cumulative total vaccine protection was notably lower for people vaccinated before the age of 5 years (24%; -30 to 56) than for people vaccinated at age 5 years or older (49%; 35 to 60), although the differences in protection for the two age groups were not significant (p=0·3308). Total vaccine protection dropped notably (p=0·0115) after 3 years in children vaccinated at 1-4 years of age. INTERPRETATION: These findings provide further evidence of long-term effectiveness of killed whole-cell OCV, and therefore further support for the use of killed whole-cell OCVs to control endemic cholera, but indicate that protection is shorter-lived in children vaccinated before the age of 5 years than in people vaccinated at the age of 5 years or older. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. TRANSLATION: For the Bengali translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.


Subject(s)
Cholera Vaccines/administration & dosage , Cholera/prevention & control , Vibrio cholerae/immunology , Administration, Oral , Adolescent , Bangladesh/epidemiology , Child , Child, Preschool , Cholera/economics , Cholera/microbiology , Female , Follow-Up Studies , Humans , Infant , Male , Poverty Areas , Vaccination , Vaccines, Inactivated/administration & dosage , Vibrio cholerae/genetics , Young Adult
2.
Eur J Health Econ ; 21(9): 1329-1350, 2020 Dec.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32789780

ABSTRACT

Pandemics and major outbreaks have the potential to cause large health losses and major economic costs. To prioritize between preventive and responsive interventions, it is important to understand the costs and health losses interventions may prevent. We review the literature, investigating the type of studies performed, the costs and benefits included, and the methods employed against perceived major outbreak threats. We searched PubMed and SCOPUS for studies concerning the outbreaks of SARS in 2003, H5N1 in 2003, H1N1 in 2009, Cholera in Haiti in 2010, MERS-CoV in 2013, H7N9 in 2013, and Ebola in West-Africa in 2014. We screened titles and abstracts of papers, and subsequently examined remaining full-text papers. Data were extracted according to a pre-constructed protocol. We included 34 studies of which the majority evaluated interventions related to the H1N1 outbreak in a high-income setting. Most interventions concerned pharmaceuticals. Included costs and benefits, as well as the methods applied, varied substantially between studies. Most studies used a short time horizon and did not include future costs and benefits. We found substantial variation in the included elements and methods used. Policymakers need to be aware of this and the bias toward high-income countries and pharmaceutical interventions, which hampers generalizability. More standardization of included elements, methodology, and reporting would improve economic evaluations and their usefulness for policy.


Subject(s)
Cholera/epidemiology , Communicable Disease Control/organization & administration , Epidemics/economics , Virus Diseases/epidemiology , Cholera/economics , Cholera/therapy , Communicable Disease Control/economics , Cost-Benefit Analysis , Humans , Pandemics , Virus Diseases/economics , Virus Diseases/therapy
3.
Vaccine ; 38 Suppl 1: A160-A166, 2020 02 29.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31611097

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The economic burden data can provide a basis to inform investments in cholera control and prevention activities. However, treatment costs and productivity loss due to cholera are not well studied. METHODS: We included Asian countries that either reported cholera cases to the World Health Organization (WHO) in 2015 or were considered cholera endemic in 2015 global burden of disease study. Public health service delivery costs for hospitalization and outpatient costs, out-of-pocket costs to patients and households, and lost productivity were extracted from literature. A probabilistic multivariate sensitivity analysis was conducted for key outputs using Monte Carlo simulation. Scenario analyses were conducted using data from the WHO cholera reports and conservative and liberal disease burden estimates. RESULTS: Our analysis included 14 Asian countries that were estimated to have a total of 850,000 cholera cases and 25,500 deaths in 2015 While, the WHO cholera report documented around 60,000 cholera cases and 28 deaths. We estimated around $20.2 million (I$74.4 million) in out-of-pocket expenditures, $8.5 million (I$30.1 million) in public sector costs, and $12.1 million (I$43.7 million) in lost productivity in 2015. Lost productivity due to premature deaths was estimated to be $985.7 million (I$3,638.6 million). Our scenario analyses excluding mortality costs showed that the economic burden ranged from 20.3% ($8.3 million) to 139.3% ($57.1 million) in high and low scenarios when compared to the base case scenario ($41 million) and was least at 10.1% ($4.1 million) when estimated based on cholera cases reported to WHO. CONCLUSION: The economic burden of cholera in Asia provides a better understanding of financial offsets that can be achieved, and the value of investments on cholera control measures. With a clear understanding of the limitations of the underlying assumptions, the information may be used in economic evaluations and policy decisions.


Subject(s)
Cholera/economics , Cost of Illness , Asia/epidemiology , Cholera/epidemiology , Health Care Costs , Health Expenditures , Humans
4.
Math Biosci Eng ; 16(5): 5226-5246, 2019 06 06.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31499710

ABSTRACT

We propose a mathematical model for the transmission dynamics of cholera under the impact of available medical resources. The model describes the interaction between the human hosts and the pathogenic bacteria and incorporates both the environment-to-human and human-to-human transmission routes. We conduct a rigorous equilibrium analysis to the model and establish the global asymptotic stability of the disease-free equilibrium when R0 ≤ 1 and that of the endemic equilibrium when R0 > 1. As a realistic case study, we apply our model to the Yemen cholera outbreak during 2017-2018. By fitting our simulation results to the epidemic data published by the World Health Organization, we find that different levels of disease prevalence and severity are linked to different geographical regions in this country and that cholera prevention and intervention efforts should be implemented strategically with respect to these regions in Yemen.


Subject(s)
Cholera/epidemiology , Cholera/transmission , Computer Simulation , Basic Reproduction Number , Cholera/economics , Epidemics , Humans , Models, Biological , Public Health , Reproducibility of Results , Resource Allocation , Socioeconomic Factors , Stochastic Processes , Vibrio cholerae , Water Microbiology , Yemen/epidemiology
5.
BMC Res Notes ; 12(1): 475, 2019 Aug 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31370867

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES: We study the transmission dynamics of cholera in the presence of limited resources, a common feature of the developing world. The model is used to gain insight into the impact of available resources of the health care system on the spread and control of the disease. A deterministic model that includes a nonlinear recovery rate is formulated and rigorously analyzed. Limited treatment is described by inclusion of a special treatment function. Center manifold theory is used to show that the model exhibits the phenomenon of backward bifurcation. Matlab has been used to carry out numerical simulations to support theoretical findings. RESULTS: The model analysis shows that the disease free steady state is locally stable when the threshold [Formula: see text]. It is also shown that the model has multiple equilibria and the model exhibits the phenomenon of backward bifurcation whose implications to cholera infection are discussed. The results are useful for the public health planning in resource allocation for the control of cholera transmission.


Subject(s)
Cholera/prevention & control , Hospital Bed Capacity/statistics & numerical data , Hospitals/statistics & numerical data , Models, Statistical , Public Health/statistics & numerical data , Cholera/economics , Cholera/epidemiology , Cholera/transmission , Computer Simulation , Developing Countries , Humans , Public Health/economics , Public Health/methods , Vibrio cholerae/pathogenicity , Zimbabwe/epidemiology
6.
PLoS One ; 14(5): e0215972, 2019.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31150406

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: In 2016, for the very first time, the Ministry of Health in Zambia implemented a reactive outbreak response to control the spread of cholera and vaccinated at-risk populations with a single dose of Shancol-an oral cholera vaccine (OCV). This study aimed to assess the costs of cholera illness and determine the cost-effectiveness of the 2016 vaccination campaign. METHODOLOGY: From April to June 2017, we conducted a retrospective cost and cost-effectiveness analysis in three peri-urban areas of Lusaka. To estimate costs of illness from a household perspective, a systematic random sample of 189 in-patients confirmed with V. cholera were identified from Cholera Treatment Centre registers and interviewed for out-of-pocket costs. Vaccine delivery and health systems costs were extracted from financial records at the District Health Office and health facilities. The cost of cholera treatment was derived by multiplying the subsidized cost of drugs by the quantity administered to patients during hospitalisation. The cost-effectiveness analysis measured incremental cost-effectiveness ratio-cost per case averted, cost per life saved and cost per DALY averted-for a single dose OCV. RESULTS: The mean cost per administered vaccine was US$1.72. Treatment costs per hospitalized episode were US$14.49-US$18.03 for patients ≤15 years old and US$17.66-US$35.16 for older patients. Whereas households incurred costs on non-medical items such as communication, beverages, food and transport during illness, a large proportion of medical costs were borne by the health system. Assuming vaccine effectiveness of 88.9% and 63%, a life expectancy of 62 years and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita of US$1,500, the costs per case averted were estimated US$369-US$532. Costs per life year saved ranged from US$18,515-US$27,976. The total cost per DALY averted was estimated between US$698-US$1,006 for patients ≤15 years old and US$666-US$1,000 for older patients. CONCLUSION: Our study determined that reactive vaccination campaign with a single dose of Shancol for cholera control in densely populated areas of Lusaka was cost-effective.


Subject(s)
Cholera Vaccines/economics , Cholera/economics , Immunization Programs/economics , Vaccination/economics , Administration, Oral , Adolescent , Adult , Child , Child, Preschool , Cost-Benefit Analysis , Disease Outbreaks/economics , Female , Humans , Infant , Infant, Newborn , Male , Retrospective Studies , Risk Factors , Young Adult , Zambia
7.
PLoS Negl Trop Dis ; 12(10): e0006652, 2018 10.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30300420

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Cholera remains an important public health problem in major cities in Bangladesh, especially in slum areas. In response to growing interest among local policymakers to control this disease, this study estimated the impact and cost-effectiveness of preventive cholera vaccination over a ten-year period in a high-risk slum population in Dhaka to inform decisions about the use of oral cholera vaccines as a key tool in reducing cholera risk in such populations. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Assuming use of a two-dose killed whole-cell oral cholera vaccine to be produced locally, the number of cholera cases and deaths averted was estimated for three target group options (1-4 year olds, 1-14 year olds, and all persons 1+), using cholera incidence data from Dhaka, estimates of vaccination coverage rates from the literature, and a dynamic model of cholera transmission based on data from Matlab, which incorporates herd effects. Local estimates of vaccination costs minus savings in treatment costs, were used to obtain incremental cost-effectiveness ratios for one- and ten-dose vial sizes. Vaccinating 1-14 year olds every three years, combined with annual routine vaccination of children, would be the most cost-effective strategy, reducing incidence in this population by 45% (assuming 10% annual migration), and costing was $823 (2015 USD) for single dose vials and $591 (2015 USD) for ten-dose vials per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted. Vaccinating all ages one year and above would reduce incidence by >90%, but would be 50% less cost-effective ($894-1,234/DALY averted). Limiting vaccination to 1-4 year olds would be the least cost-effective strategy (preventing only 7% of cases and costing $1,276-$1,731/DALY averted), due to the limited herd effects of vaccinating this small population and the lower vaccine efficacy in this age group. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Providing cholera vaccine to slum populations in Dhaka through periodic vaccination campaigns would significantly reduce cholera incidence and inequities, and be especially cost-effective if all 1-14 year olds are targeted.


Subject(s)
Cholera Vaccines/economics , Cholera Vaccines/immunology , Cholera/economics , Cholera/prevention & control , Cost-Benefit Analysis , Disease Transmission, Infectious/prevention & control , Vaccination/economics , Adolescent , Adult , Age Factors , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Bangladesh , Child , Child, Preschool , Cholera Vaccines/administration & dosage , Female , Humans , Immunization Schedule , Infant , Male , Middle Aged , Poverty Areas , Urban Population , Vaccines, Inactivated/administration & dosage , Vaccines, Inactivated/economics , Vaccines, Inactivated/immunology , Young Adult
8.
Bull Math Biol ; 80(10): 2580-2599, 2018 10.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30203140

ABSTRACT

Cholera is an acute gastro-intestinal infection that affects millions of people throughout the world each year, primarily but not exclusively in developing countries. Because of its public health ramifications, considerable mathematical attention has been paid to the disease. Here we consider one neglected aspect of combating cholera: personal participation in anti-cholera interventions. We construct a game-theoretic model of cholera in which individuals choose whether to participate in either vaccination or clean water consumption programs under assumed costs. We find that relying upon individual compliance significantly lowers the incidence of the disease as long as the cost of intervention is sufficiently low, but does not eliminate it. The relative costs of the measures determined whether a population preferentially adopts a single preventative measure or employs the measure with the strongest early adoption.


Subject(s)
Cholera/prevention & control , Models, Biological , Cholera/economics , Cholera/epidemiology , Cholera Vaccines/pharmacology , Cost-Benefit Analysis , Drinking Water/microbiology , Game Theory , Humans , Mathematical Concepts , Patient Compliance , Public Health Practice , Vaccination/statistics & numerical data
9.
Vaccine ; 36(30): 4404-4424, 2018 07 16.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29907482

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Vibrio cholera is a major contributor of diarrheal illness that causes significant morbidity and mortality globally. While there is literature on the health economics of diarrheal illnesses more generally, few studies have quantified the cost-of-illness and cost-effectiveness of cholera-specific prevention and control interventions. The present systematic review provides a comprehensive overview of the literature specific to cholera as it pertains to key health economic measures. METHODS: A systematic review was performed with no date restrictions up through February 2017 in PubMed, Econlit, Embase, Web of Science, and Cochrane Review to identify relevant health economics of cholera literature. After removing duplicates, a total of 1993 studies were screened and coded independently by two reviewers, resulting in 22 relevant studies. Data on population, methods, and results (cost-of-illness and cost-effectiveness of vaccination) were compared by country/region. All costs were adjusted to 2017 USD for comparability. RESULTS: Costs per cholera case were found to be rather low: <$100 per case in most settings, even when costs incurred by patients/families and lost productivity are considered. When wider socioeconomic costs are included, estimated costs are >$1000/case. There is adequate evidence to support the economic value of vaccination for the prevention and control of cholera when vaccination is targeted at high-incidence populations and/or areas with high case fatality rates due to cholera. When herd immunity is considered, vaccination also becomes a cost-effective option for the general population and is comparable in cost-effectiveness to other routine immunizations. CONCLUSIONS: Cholera vaccination is a viable short-to-medium term option, especially as the upfront costs of building water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) infrastructure are considerably higher for countries that face a significant burden of cholera. While WASH may be the more cost-effective solution in the long-term when implemented properly, cholera vaccination can still be a feasible, cost-effective strategy.


Subject(s)
Cholera/prevention & control , Cholera/economics , Cost-Benefit Analysis , Humans , Vaccination/economics
10.
Hum Vaccin Immunother ; 14(2): 420-429, 2018 02 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29099647

ABSTRACT

World Health Organization recommends oral cholera vaccine (OCV) to prevent and control cholera, but requires cost-effectiveness evidence. This review aimed to provide a critical appraisal and summary of global economic evaluation (EE) studies involving OCV to guide future EE study. Full EE studies, published from inception to December 2015, evaluating OCV against cholera disease were included. The included studies were appraised using WHO guide for standardization of EE of immunization programs. Out of 14 included studies, almost all (13/14) were in low- and middle-income countries. Most studies (11/14) evaluated mass vaccination program. Most of the studies (9/14) incorporated herd protective effect. The most common influential parameters were cholera incidence, OCV coverage, herd protection and OCV price. OCV vaccination is likely to be cost-effective when targeted at the population with high-risk of cholera and poor access to health care facilities when herd protection effect is incorporated and OCV price is low.


Subject(s)
Cholera Vaccines/economics , Cholera Vaccines/immunology , Cholera/prevention & control , Cholera/economics , Cholera Vaccines/administration & dosage , Developing Countries , Humans , Immunization Programs , World Health Organization
11.
BMC Infect Dis ; 17(1): 779, 2017 12 19.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29258447

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Cholera is a diarrheal disease that produces rapid dehydration. The infection is a significant cause of mortality and morbidity. Oral cholera vaccine (OCV) has been propagated for the prevention of cholera. Evidence on OCV delivery cost is insufficient in the African context. This study aims to analyze Shanchol vaccine delivery costs, focusing on the vaccination campaign in response of a cholera outbreak in Lake Chilwa, Malawi. METHODS: The vaccination campaign was implemented in two rounds in February and March 2016. Structured questionnaires were used to collect costs incurred for each vaccination related activity, including vaccine procurement and shipment, training, microplanning, sensitization, social mobilization and vaccination rounds. Costs collected, including financial and economic costs were analyzed using Choltool, a standardized cholera cost calculator. RESULTS: In total, 67,240 persons received two complete doses of the vaccine. Vaccine coverage was higher in the first round than in the second. The two-dose coverage measured with the immunization card was estimated at 58%. The total financial cost incurred in implementing the campaign was US$480275 while the economic cost was US$588637. The total financial and economic costs per fully vaccinated person were US$7.14 and US$8.75, respectively, with delivery costs amounting to US$1.94 and US$3.55, respectively. Vaccine procurement and shipment accounted respectively for 73% and 59% of total financial and economic costs of the total vaccination campaign costs while the incurred personnel cost accounted for 13% and 29% of total financial and economic costs. Cost for delivering a single dose of Shanchol was estimated at US$0.97. CONCLUSION: This study provides new evidence on economic and financial costs of a reactive campaign implemented by international partners in collaboration with MoH. It shows that involvement of international partners' personnel may represent a substantial share of campaign's costs, affecting unit and vaccine delivery costs.


Subject(s)
Cholera Vaccines/immunology , Cholera/economics , Immunization Programs/economics , Vaccination/economics , Cholera/prevention & control , Cholera Vaccines/chemistry , Costs and Cost Analysis , Humans , Malawi , Refrigeration , Surveys and Questionnaires
12.
PLoS One ; 12(9): e0185041, 2017.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28934285

ABSTRACT

Cholera remains an important public health problem in many low- and middle-income countries. Vaccination has been recommended as a possible intervention for the prevention and control of cholera. Evidence, especially data on disease burden, cost-of-illness, delivery costs and cost-effectiveness to support a wider use of vaccine is still weak. This study aims at estimating the cost-of-illness of cholera to households and health facilities in Machinga and Zomba Districts, Malawi. A cross-sectional study using retrospectively collected cost data was undertaken in this investigation. One hundred patients were purposefully selected for the assessment of the household cost-of-illness and four cholera treatment centres and one health facility were selected for the assessment conducted in health facilities. Data collected for the assessment in households included direct and indirect costs borne by cholera patients and their families while only direct costs were considered for the assessment conducted in health facilities. Whenever possible, descriptive and regression analysis were used to assess difference in mean costs between groups of patients. The average costs to patients' households and health facilities for treating an episode of cholera amounted to US$65.6 and US$59.7 in 2016 for households and health facilities, respectively equivalent to international dollars (I$) 249.9 and 227.5 the same year. Costs incurred in treating a cholera episode were proportional to duration of hospital stay. Moreover, 52% of households used coping strategies to compensate for direct and indirect costs imposed by the disease. Both households and health facilities could avert significant treatment expenditures through a broader use of pre-emptive cholera vaccination. These findings have direct policy implications regarding priority investments for the prevention and control of cholera.


Subject(s)
Cholera/economics , Cost of Illness , Family Characteristics , Financing, Personal/economics , Health Expenditures/statistics & numerical data , Health Facilities/economics , Rural Health/economics , Adolescent , Adult , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Child , Child, Preschool , Cholera/prevention & control , Cross-Sectional Studies , Female , Humans , Malawi , Male , Middle Aged , Retrospective Studies , Rural Health/statistics & numerical data , Vaccination , Young Adult
13.
Pathog Glob Health ; 109(6): 275-82, 2015 Sep.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-26260354

ABSTRACT

We conducted a randomised single-blinded clinical trial of 100 cholera patients in Port-au-Prince, Haiti to determine if the probiotic Saccharomyces cerevisiae var. boulardii and the anti-diarrhoeal drug bismuth subsalicylate (BS) were able to reduce the duration and severity of cholera. Subjects received either: S. boulardii 250 mg, S. boulardii 250 mg capsule plus BS 524 mg tablet, BS 524 mg, or two placebo capsules every 6 hours alongside standard treatment for cholera. The length of hospitalisation plus the number and volume of emesis, stool and urine were recorded every 6 hours until the study subject was discharged (n = 83), left against medical advice (n = 11), or requested removal from the study (n = 6). There were no reported deaths or adverse study-related events. There were no statistically significant differences between the study arms and the outcomes of interest.


Subject(s)
Anti-Bacterial Agents/therapeutic use , Bismuth/therapeutic use , Cholera/drug therapy , Cholera/therapy , Diarrhea/prevention & control , Emergency Medical Services/methods , Organometallic Compounds/therapeutic use , Probiotics/therapeutic use , Saccharomyces , Salicylates/therapeutic use , Vibrio cholerae/drug effects , Adult , Anti-Bacterial Agents/economics , Antibodies, Bacterial , Cholera/economics , Cholera/epidemiology , Disease Outbreaks/economics , Emergency Medical Services/economics , Feces/microbiology , Female , Fluid Therapy/economics , Haiti/epidemiology , Humans , Length of Stay/economics , Length of Stay/statistics & numerical data , Male , Severity of Illness Index , Treatment Outcome
14.
Health Place ; 34: 107-17, 2015 Jul.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-25997026

ABSTRACT

Cholera is one of the most important climate sensitive diseases in Nigeria that pose a threat to public health because of its fatality and endemic nature. This study aims to investigate the influences of meteorological and socioeconomic factors on the spatiotemporal variability of cholera morbidity and mortality in Nigeria. Stepwise multiple regression and generalised additive models were fitted for individual states as well as for three groups of the states based on annual precipitation. Different meteorological variables were analysed, taking into account socioeconomic factors that are potentially enhancing vulnerability (e.g. absolute poverty, adult literacy, access to pipe borne water). Results quantify the influence of both climate and socioeconomic variables in explaining the spatial and temporal variability of the disease incidence and mortality. Regional importance of different factors is revealed, which will allow further insight into the disease dynamics. Additionally, cross validated models suggest a strong possibility of disease prediction, which will help authorities to put effective control measures in place which depend on prevention, and or efficient response.


Subject(s)
Cholera/epidemiology , Climate , Disease Outbreaks/statistics & numerical data , Social Class , Adult , Cholera/economics , Cholera/mortality , Humans , Literacy/statistics & numerical data , Models, Statistical , Models, Theoretical , Nigeria/epidemiology , Poverty/statistics & numerical data , Rain , Seasons , Socioeconomic Factors
15.
PLoS One ; 8(12): e81231, 2013.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-24312540

ABSTRACT

Incidence of cholera outbreak is a serious issue in underdeveloped and developing countries. In Zimbabwe, after the massive outbreak in 2008-09, cholera cases and deaths are reported every year from some provinces. Substantial number of reported cholera cases in some provinces during and after the epidemic in 2008-09 indicates a plausible presence of seasonality in cholera incidence in those regions. We formulate a compartmental mathematical model with periodic slow-fast transmission rate to study such recurrent occurrences and fitted the model to cumulative cholera cases and deaths for different provinces of Zimbabwe from the beginning of cholera outbreak in 2008-09 to June 2011. Daily and weekly reported cholera incidence data were collected from Zimbabwe epidemiological bulletin, Zimbabwe Daily cholera updates and Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs Zimbabwe (OCHA, Zimbabwe). For each province, the basic reproduction number ([Formula: see text]) in periodic environment is estimated. To the best of our knowledge, this is probably a pioneering attempt to estimate [Formula: see text] in periodic environment using real-life data set of cholera epidemic for Zimbabwe. Our estimates of [Formula: see text] agree with the previous estimate for some provinces but differ significantly for Bulawayo, Mashonaland West, Manicaland, Matabeleland South and Matabeleland North. Seasonal trend in cholera incidence is observed in Harare, Mashonaland West, Mashonaland East, Manicaland and Matabeleland South. Our result suggests that, slow transmission is a dominating factor for cholera transmission in most of these provinces. Our model projects [Formula: see text] cholera cases and [Formula: see text] cholera deaths during the end of the epidemic in 2008-09 to January 1, 2012. We also determine an optimal cost-effective control strategy among the four government undertaken interventions namely promoting hand-hygiene & clean water distribution, vaccination, treatment and sanitation for each province.


Subject(s)
Cholera/economics , Cholera/epidemiology , Seasons , Cholera/prevention & control , Cholera/therapy , Cost-Benefit Analysis , Humans , Models, Statistical , Zimbabwe/epidemiology
16.
BMC Infect Dis ; 13: 518, 2013 Nov 04.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-24188717

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Cholera poses a substantial health burden to developing countries such as Bangladesh. In this study, the objective is to estimate the economic burden of cholera treatments incurred by households. The study was carried out in the context of a large vaccine trial in an urban area of Bangladesh. METHODS: The study used a combination of prospective and retrospective incidence-based cost analyses of cholera illness per episode per household. A total of 394 confirmed cholera hospitalized cases were identified and treated in the study area during June-October 2011. Households with cholera patients were interviewed within 15 days after discharge from hospitals or clinics. To estimate the total cost of cholera illness a structured questionnaire was used, which included questions on direct medical costs, non-medical costs, and the indirect costs of patients and caregivers. RESULTS: The average total household cost of treatment for an episode of cholera was US$30.40. Total direct and indirect costs constituted 24.6% (US$7.40) and 75.4% (US$23.00) of the average total cost, respectively. The cost for children under 5 years of age (US$21.50) was higher than that of children aged 5-14 years (US$17.50). The direct cost of treatment was similar for male and female patients, but the indirect cost was higher for males. CONCLUSION: Our study suggests that by preventing one cholera episode (3 days on an average), we can avert a total cost of 2,278.50 BDT (US$30.40) per household. Among medical components, medicines are the largest cost driver. No clear socioeconomic gradient emerged from our study, but limited demographic patterns were observed in the cost of illness. By preventing cholera cases, large production losses can be reduced.


Subject(s)
Cholera/economics , Adolescent , Adult , Bangladesh/epidemiology , Child , Child, Preschool , Cholera/epidemiology , Cost of Illness , Family Characteristics , Female , Humans , Infant , Male , Middle Aged , Prospective Studies , Retrospective Studies , Urban Population
17.
J Infect Dis ; 208 Suppl 1: S8-14, 2013 Nov 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-24101650

ABSTRACT

The 21st century saw a shift in the cholera burden from Asia to Africa. The risk factors for cholera outbreaks in Africa are incompletely understood, and the traditional emphasis on providing safe drinking water and improving sanitation and hygiene has proven remarkably insufficient to contain outbreaks. Current killed whole-cell oral cholera vaccines (OCVs) are safe and guarantee a high level of protection for several years. OCVs have been licensed for >20 years, but their potential for preventing and control cholera outbreaks in Africa has not been realized. Although each item in the long list of technical reasons why cholera vaccination campaigns have been deferred is plausible, we believe that the biggest barrier is that populations affected by cholera outbreaks are underprivileged and lack a strong political voice. The evaluation and use of OCVs as a tool for cholera control will require a new, more compassionate, less risk-averse generation of decision makers.


Subject(s)
Cholera Vaccines/immunology , Cholera/epidemiology , Cholera/prevention & control , Africa/epidemiology , Cholera/economics , Cholera Vaccines/economics , Cholera Vaccines/supply & distribution , Cost-Benefit Analysis , Endemic Diseases/prevention & control , Epidemics/prevention & control , Humans , Mass Vaccination/economics , Mass Vaccination/methods , Sanitary Engineering , Strategic Stockpile/economics , Water Supply
19.
Epidemiol Infect ; 141(3): 639-50, 2013 Mar.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-22564277

ABSTRACT

Determinants of anticipated acceptance of an oral cholera vaccine (OCV) were studied in urban and rural communities of Western Kenya. An explanatory model interview administered to 379 community residents assessed anticipated vaccine acceptance at various prices from no cost to full-cost recovery, socio-cultural features of cholera and social characteristics. Nearly all (99%) residents indicated willingness to accept a no-cost OCV, 95% at a price of US$ 0·8, 73% at US$ 4·2 and 59% at US$ 8·4. Logistic regression models analysed socio-cultural determinants of anticipated OCV acceptance. Prominence of non-specific symptoms for cholera was negatively associated with acceptance. A cholera-specific symptom (thirst), self-help referring to prayer, income and education were positively associated. In the high-cost model, education was no longer significant and reliance on herbal treatment was a significant determinant of vaccine non-acceptance. Findings suggest high motivation for OCVs, if affordable. Socio-cultural determinants are better predictors of anticipated acceptance than socio-demographic factors alone.


Subject(s)
Cholera Vaccines , Cholera/economics , Cholera/prevention & control , Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice/ethnology , Patient Acceptance of Health Care/ethnology , Administration, Oral , Adolescent , Adult , Aged , Cholera/complications , Cross-Sectional Studies , Educational Status , Female , Humans , Income , Kenya , Male , Middle Aged , Plant Preparations/therapeutic use , Religion , Rural Population/statistics & numerical data , Thirst , Urban Population/statistics & numerical data , Young Adult
20.
PLoS Negl Trop Dis ; 6(10): e1844, 2012.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-23056660

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends oral cholera vaccines (OCVs) as a supplementary tool to conventional prevention of cholera. Dukoral, a killed whole-cell two-dose OCV, was used in a mass vaccination campaign in 2009 in Zanzibar. Public and private costs of illness (COI) due to endemic cholera and costs of the mass vaccination campaign were estimated to assess the cost-effectiveness of OCV for this particular campaign from both the health care provider and the societal perspective. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Public and private COI were obtained from interviews with local experts, with patients from three outbreaks and from reports and record review. Cost data for the vaccination campaign were collected based on actual expenditure and planned budget data. A static cohort of 50,000 individuals was examined, including herd protection. Primary outcome measures were incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) per death, per case and per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted. One-way sensitivity and threshold analyses were conducted. The ICER was evaluated with regard to WHO criteria for cost-effectiveness. Base-case ICERs were USD 750,000 per death averted, USD 6,000 per case averted and USD 30,000 per DALY averted, without differences between the health care provider and the societal perspective. Threshold analyses using Shanchol and assuming high incidence and case-fatality rate indicated that the purchase price per course would have to be as low as USD 1.2 to render the mass vaccination campaign cost-effective from a health care provider perspective (societal perspective: USD 1.3). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Based on empirical and site-specific cost and effectiveness data from Zanzibar, the 2009 mass vaccination campaign was cost-ineffective mainly due to the relatively high OCV purchase price and a relatively low incidence. However, mass vaccination campaigns in Zanzibar to control endemic cholera may meet criteria for cost-effectiveness under certain circumstances, especially in high-incidence areas and at OCV prices below USD 1.3.


Subject(s)
Cholera Vaccines/economics , Cholera Vaccines/immunology , Cholera/economics , Cholera/epidemiology , Mass Vaccination/economics , Mass Vaccination/methods , Administration, Oral , Adolescent , Adult , Child , Cholera/prevention & control , Cholera Vaccines/administration & dosage , Cohort Studies , Cost of Illness , Cost-Benefit Analysis , Female , Humans , Interviews as Topic , Male , Tanzania/epidemiology , Young Adult
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