Flip bifurcation analysis and mathematical modeling of cholera disease by taking control measures.

To study the dynamical system, it is necessary to formulate the mathematical model to understand the dynamics of various diseases which are spread in the world wide. The objective of the research study is to assess the early diagnosis and treatment of cholera virus by implementing remedial methods with and without the use of drugs. A mathematical model is built with the hypothesis of strengthening the immune system, and a ABC operator is employed to turn the model into a fractional-order model. A newly developed system SEIBR, which is examined both qualitatively and quantitatively to determine its stable position as well as the verification of flip bifurcation has been made for developed system. The local stability of this model has been explored concerning limited observations, a fundamental aspect of epidemic models. We have derived the reproductive number using next generation method, denoted as " R 0 ", to analyze its impact rate across various sub-compartments, which serves as a critical determinant of its community-wide transmission rate. The sensitivity analysis has been verified according to its each parameters to identify that how much rate of change of parameters are sensitive. Atangana-Toufik scheme is employed to find the solution for the developed system using different fractional values which is advanced tool for reliable bounded solution. Also the error analysis has been made for developed scheme. Simulations have been made to see the real behavior and effects of cholera disease with early detection and treatment by implementing remedial methods without the use of drugs in the community. Also identify the real situation the spread of cholera disease after implementing remedial methods with and without the use of drugs. Such type of investigation will be useful to investigate the spread of virus as well as helpful in developing control strategies from our justified outcomes.

Acute watery diarrhoea cases during cholera outbreak in Syria: a cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study is a descriptive presentation of cases of acute watery diarrhoea (AWD) that were presented to Aleppo University Hospital (AUH) during the recent cholera outbreak in Syria. DESIGN: Prospective, observational, cohort study. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: A total of 1061 patients with AWD were admitted to AUH during the timeframe of 20 September 2022 to 20 October 2022. The data collection was done through a structured questionnaire. This includes comprehensive clinical observation, laboratory analyses, therapeutic interventions and holistic case evaluations. RESULTS: The analysis has revealed notable insights: a predominant proportion of patients (58.6%) were residents from urban areas and 40.3% were residents from rural areas. Intriguingly, a diverse range of potential infection sources emerged from patient data within our hospital, including uncontrolled well water, vegetables and faecal-oral transmission through contaminated street/fast food. At discharge, most patients were in good health (79.7%), followed by moderate health (17.6%) and poor health (2.3%), with a minimal percentage dying before discharge (0.4%). The most common complications reported at admission and during hospitalisation included electrolyte imbalance (28.2%), followed by severe dehydration (16.3%). In the follow-up period, the majority of patients exhibited good health (81.0%). Older patients (>60 years) had poorer outcomes, with 8.4% having poor health and 4.2% death rate. CONCLUSIONS: The study found results consistent with previous AWD outbreaks in developing countries like Yemen, Nigeria and Lebanon. Preventative measures like improving water sanitation and hygiene practices are essential to prevent future outbreaks and ease the strain on healthcare systems. Therefore, future studies must investigate the risk factors that increase the spread and the severity of the disease and investigate the best management method.

Epidemiological and genetic characterization of multidrug-resistant non-O1 and non-O139 Vibrio cholerae from food in southern China.

This study reports a comprehensive epidemiological and genetic analysis of V. cholerae strains, specifically non-O1/non-O139 serogroups, isolated from animal-derived food samples in Guangdong province from 2015 to 2019. A total of 21 V. cholerae strains were obtained, which exhibited high resistance rates for nalidixic acid (57.14 %, 12/21), ampicillin (33.33 %, 7/21), and ciprofloxacin (19.05 %, 4/21). The quinolone resistance-related gene, qnrVC, was prevalent in 80.95 % (17/21) of the isolates. Additionally, chromosomally mediated quinolone-resistance mutations, including mutations in GyrA at position 83 (S83I) and ParC at position 85 (S85L), were detected in 47.62 % of the isolates. The combination of target mutation and qnrVC genes was shown to mediate resistance or intermediate resistance to ciprofloxacin in V. cholerae. Furthermore, an IncC-type conjugative plasmid carrying thirteen antibiotic resistance genes, including genes conferring resistance to two clinically important antibiotics, cephalosporins and fluoroquinolones, was identified in the shrimp-derived strain Vc516. While none of our food isolates harbored the toxigenic CTX- and TCP-encoding genes, they did possess genes encoding toxins such as HlyA and Autoinducer-2. Notably, some V. cholerae strains from this study exhibited a close genetic relationship with clinical strains, suggesting their potential to cause human infections. Taken together, this study provides a comprehensive view of the epidemiological features and genetic basis of antimicrobial resistance and virulence potential of V. cholerae strains isolated from food in southern China, thereby advancing our understanding of this important pathogen.

Informing policy via dynamic models: Cholera in Haiti.

Public health decisions must be made about when and how to implement interventions to control an infectious disease epidemic. These decisions should be informed by data on the epidemic as well as current understanding about the transmission dynamics. Such decisions can be posed as statistical questions about scientifically motivated dynamic models. Thus, we encounter the methodological task of building credible, data-informed decisions based on stochastic, partially observed, nonlinear dynamic models. This necessitates addressing the tradeoff between biological fidelity and model simplicity, and the reality of misspecification for models at all levels of complexity. We assess current methodological approaches to these issues via a case study of the 2010-2019 cholera epidemic in Haiti. We consider three dynamic models developed by expert teams to advise on vaccination policies. We evaluate previous methods used for fitting these models, and we demonstrate modified data analysis strategies leading to improved statistical fit. Specifically, we present approaches for diagnosing model misspecification and the consequent development of improved models. Additionally, we demonstrate the utility of recent advances in likelihood maximization for high-dimensional nonlinear dynamic models, enabling likelihood-based inference for spatiotemporal incidence data using this class of models. Our workflow is reproducible and extendable, facilitating future investigations of this disease system.

Analyses of drinking water quality during a protracted cholera epidemic in Malawi - a cross-sectional study of key physicochemical and microbiological parameters.

Anecdotal evidence and available literature indicated that contaminated water played a major role in spreading the prolonged cholera epidemic in Malawi from 2022 to 2023. This study assessed drinking water quality in 17 cholera-affected Malawi districts from February to April 2023. Six hundred and thirty-three records were analysed. The median counts/100 ml for thermotolerant coliform was 98 (interquartile range (IQR): 4-100) and that for Escherichia coli was 0 (IQR: 0-9). The drinking water in all (except one) districts was contaminated by thermotolerant coliform, while six districts had their drinking water sources contaminated by E. coli. The percentage of contaminated drinking water sources was significantly higher in shallow unprotected wells (80.0% for E. coli and 95.0% for thermotolerant coliform) and in households (55.8% for E. coli and 86.0% for thermotolerant coliform). Logistic regression showed that household water has three times more risk of being contaminated by E. coli and two and a half times more risk of being contaminated by thermotolerant coliform compared to other water sources. This study demonstrated widespread contamination of drinking water sources during a cholera epidemic in Malawi, which may be the plausible reason for the protracted nature of the epidemic.

Cholera and diarrheal diseases in Cuamba District, Niassa Province, Mozambique: Systematic healthcare facility-based surveillance strengthening, characteristics of suspected cholera and diarrheal patients, and incidence of diarrheal diseases.

BACKGROUND: Mozambique is one of the countries in Africa that is continuously at risk of cholera outbreaks due to poor sanitation, hygiene, and limited access to potable water in some districts. The Mozambique Cholera Prevention and Surveillance (MOCA) project was implemented in Cuamba District, Niassa Province to prevent and control cholera outbreaks through a preemptive cholera vaccination, strengthened surveillance system for cholera and diarrheal diseases, and better understanding of cholera-related healthcare seeking behavior of local populations, which may further guide the national cholera control and prevention strategies. This article presents the surveillance component of the MOCA project. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A prospective healthcare facility (HCF)-based surveillance of cholera and diarrheal disease was conducted in six HCFs in the District of Cuamba from March 2019 to December 2020. A systematic surveillance procedure has been put in place with capacity building in selected sentinel HCFs and a basic microbiology laboratory established on-site. Patients presenting with suspected cholera or other diarrheal symptoms were eligible for enrollment. Clinical data and rectal swab samples were collected for laboratory confirmation of Vibrio Cholerae and other pathogens. A total of 419 eligible patients from six HCFs were enrolled. The median age was 19.8 years with a similar age distribution between sentinel sites. The majority were patients who exhibited diarrhea symptoms not suspected of cholera (88.8%; n = 410). Among those, 59.2% (210/397) were female and 59.9% (235/392) were 15 years and above. There were 2 cholera cases, coming outside of the catchment area. The incidence of diarrheal diseases ranged from 40-103 per 100,000 population. No Vibrio cholerae was isolated among surveillance catchment population and Escherichia coli spp. (82/277; 29.6%) was the most common pathogen isolated. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: Efforts were made to strengthen the systematic surveillance of suspected cholera with standardised patient screening, enrolment, and diagnostics. The first basic microbiology laboratory in Niassa Province established in Cuamba District under the MOCA project needs to be integrated into the national network of laboratories for sustainability. No reports of laboratory confirmed cholera cases from the surveillance catchment area may be highly related to the pre-emptive oral cholera vaccine (OCV) mass vaccination campaign conducted in 2018 and the use of drugs by local populations prior to visiting the sentinel HCFs. Continued systematic cholera surveillance is needed to closely monitor the cholera endemicity and epidemics, and further evaluate the long-term impact of this vaccination. High incidence of diarrheal illnesses needs to be addressed with improved water, sanitation, and hygiene (WaSH) conditions in Cuamba District. Efforts integrated with the prioritization of prevention measures are fundamental for the control of cholera in the country.

Early use of oral cholera vaccines as a prime control measure during outbreaks: Necessary but not sufficient.

INTRODUCTION: Despite being a preventable and treatable disease, cholera remains a public health problem in Sudan. The objective of the outbreak investigation was to identify associated risk factors that would help institute appropriate control measures. MATERIAL AND METHODS: A case control study design was chosen to identify the risk factors for cholera in Gadarif State. RESULTS: Multi-variate analysis of identified two risk factors and three preventive factors for cholera in Gadarif City. RISK FACTORS: Buying foods or drinks from street vendors (OR = 71.36), 95 % CI: 16.58-307.14), living in an urban setting (Gadarif City) (OR = 5.38), 95 % CI: 2.10-13.81); and the preventive factors were: Washing hands with water after defecation but without soap (OR = 0.16), 95 % CI: 0.04-0.63) or with soap (OR = 0.01), 95 % CI: 0.00-0.03), washing hands before eating (OR = 0.15), 95 % CI: 0.05-0.51) and taking Oral Cholera Vaccine (OCV) (OR = 0.19, 95 % CI: 0.08-0.44). The effectiveness of OCV (VE) was (Unadjusted VE: 80 %, 95 % CI: 69 %-87 %) or (Adjusted VE = 81.0 %, 95 % CI: 56.0 %-92.0 %). DISCUSSION: Cholera outbreaks, especially in the setting of a complex humanitarian crises, can spread rapidly, resulting in many deaths, and quickly become a public health crisis. Implementation of a community-wide vaccination campaign using OCV as early as possible during the outbreak while implementing other control measures to target hotspots and at-risk populations would expedite halting outbreaks of cholera and save lives.

Comparison of analysis methods to classify cholera hotspots in Ethiopia from 2015 to 2021.

Cholera continues to represent a major public health concern in Ethiopia. The country has developed a Multi-sectoral National Cholera Elimination Plan in 2022, which targets prevention and control interventions in cholera hotspots. Multiple methods to classify cholera hotspots have been used in several countries. Since 2014, a classification method developed by United Nations Children's Fund has been applied to guide water, sanitation and hygiene interventions throughout Sub-Saharan Africa based on three outbreak parameters: frequency, duration and standardized attack rate. In 2019, the Global Task Force on Cholera Control (GTFCC) proposed a method based on two parameters: average annual cholera incidence and persistence. In 2023, an updated GTFCC method for multisectoral interventions considers three epidemiological indicators (cumulative incidence, cumulative mortality and persistence,) and a cholera-case confirmation indicator. The current study aimed to classify cholera hotspots in Ethiopia at the woreda level (equivalent to district level) applying the three methods and comparing the results to optimize the hotspot targeting strategy. From 2015 to 2021, cholera hotspots were located along major routes between Addis Ababa and woredas adjacent to the Kenya and Somalia borders, throughout Tigray Region, around Lake Tana, and in Afar Region. The multi-method comparison enables decision makers to prioritize interventions according to a sub-classification of the highest-priority areas.

Genomic characteristics of clinical non-toxigenic Vibrio cholerae isolates in Switzerland: a cross-sectional study.

STUDY AIMS: Although non-toxigenic Vibrio cholerae lack the ctxAB genes encoding cholera toxin, they can cause diarrhoeal disease and outbreaks in humans. In Switzerland, V. cholerae is a notifiable pathogen and all clinical isolates are analysed at the National Reference Laboratory for Enteropathogenic Bacteria and Listeria. Up to 20 infections are reported annually. In this study, we investigated the population structure and genetic characteristics of non-toxigenic V. cholerae isolates collected over five years. METHODS:  V. cholerae isolates were serotyped and non-toxigenic isolates identified using a ctxA-specific PCR. Following Illumina whole-genome sequencing, genome assemblies were screened for virulence and antibiotic resistance genes. Phylogenetic analyses were performed in the context of 965 publicly available V. cholerae genomes. RESULTS: Out of 33 V. cholerae infections reported between January 2017 and January 2022 in Switzerland, 31 were caused by ctxA-negative isolates. These non-toxigenic isolates originated from gastrointestinal (n = 29) or extraintestinal (n = 2) sites. They were phylogenetically diverse and belonged to 29 distinct sequence types. Two isolates were allocated to the lineage L3b, a ctxAB-negative but tcpA-positive clade previously associated with regional outbreaks. The remaining 29 isolates were placed in lineage L4, which is associated with environmental strains. Genes or mutations associated with reduced susceptibility to the first-line antibiotics fluoroquinolones and tetracyclines were identified in 11 and 3 isolates, respectively. One isolate was predicted to be multidrug resistant. CONCLUSIONS:  V. cholerae infections in Switzerland are rare and predominantly caused by lowly virulent ctxAB-negative and tcpA-negative strains. As V. cholerae is not endemic in Switzerland, cases are assumed to be acquired predominantly during travel. This assumption was supported by the phylogenetic diversity of the analysed isolates.

Spatiotemporal distribution of climate-sensitive disease incidences in ethiopia: a longitudinal retrospective analysis of Malaria, Meningitis, Cholera, Dysentery, Leishmaniasis and Dengue fever between 2010 and 2022/2023.

BACKGROUND: Understanding the temporal and geographic distribution of disease incidences is crucial for effective public health planning and intervention strategies. This study presents a comprehensive analysis of the spatiotemporal distribution of disease incidences in Ethiopia, focusing on six major diseases: Malaria, Meningitis, Cholera and Dysentery, over the period from 2010 to 2022, whereas Dengue Fever and Leishmaniasis from 2018 to 2023. METHODS: Using data from Ethiopian public health institute: public health emergency management (PHEM), and Ministry of Health, we examined the occurrence and spread of each disease across different regions of Ethiopia. Spatial mapping and time series analysis were employed to identify hotspots, trends, and seasonal variations in disease incidence. RESULTS: The findings reveal distinct patterns for each disease, with varying cases and temporal dynamics. Monthly wise, Malaria exhibits a cyclical pattern with a peak during the rainy and humid season, while Dysentery, Meningitis and Cholera displays intermittent incidences. Dysentery cases show a consistent presence throughout the years, while Meningitis remains relatively low in frequency but poses a potential threat due to its severity. Dengue fever predominantly occurs in the eastern parts of Ethiopia. A significant surge in reported incident cases occurred during the years 2010 to 2013, primarily concentrated in the Amhara, Sidama, Oromia, Dire Dawa, and Benishangul-Gumuz regions. CONCLUSIONS: This study helps to a better understanding of disease epidemiology in Ethiopia and can serve as a foundation for evidence-based decision-making in disease prevention and control. By recognizing the patterns and seasonal changes associated with each disease, health authorities can implement proactive measures to mitigate the impact of outbreaks and safeguard public health in the region.

Facility capacity and provider knowledge for cholera surveillance and diarrhoea case management in cholera hotspots in the Democratic Republic of Congo - a mixed-methods study.

BACKGROUND: Wider healthcare-strengthening interventions are recommended in cholera hotspots and could benefit other types of diarrhoeal diseases which contribute to greater mortality than cholera. OBJECTIVE: Describe facility capacity and provider knowledge for case management of diarrhoea and cholera surveillance in cholera hotspots in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) among health facilities, drug shops, and traditional health practitioners. METHODS: We conducted a sequential exploratory mixed-method study, using focus group discussions, facility audits, and provider knowledge questionnaires during September and October 2022 in North Kivu and Tanganyika provinces, Eastern DRC. Content analysis was used for qualitative data. Quantitative data were summarised by facility level and healthcare provider type. Audit and knowledge scores (range 0-100) were generated. Multivariable linear regression estimated association between scores and explanatory factors. Qualitative and quantitative data were triangulated during interpretation. RESULTS: Overall, 244 facilities and 308 providers were included. The mean audit score for health facilities was 51/100 (SD: 17). Private facilities had an -11.6 (95% CI, -16.7 to -6.6) lower adjusted mean score compared to public. Mean knowledge score was 59/100 (95% CI, 57 to 60) for health facility personnel, 46/100 (95% CI, 43 to 48) for drug shop vendors and 37/100 (95% CI, 34 to 39) for traditional health practitioners. Providers had particularly low knowledge concerning when to check for low blood sugar, use of nasogastric tubes, and dosing schedules. Knowledge about case definitions for cholera was similar between groups (range 41-58%) except for traditional health practitioners for the definition during an outbreak 15/73 (21%). CONCLUSIONS: Increasing awareness of cholera case definitions in this context could help improve cholera surveillance and control. Increased support and supervision, especially for private providers, could help ensure facilities are equipped to provide safe care. More nuanced aspects of case management should be emphasised in provider training.

Emerging resistome diversity in clinical Vibrio cholerae strains revealing their role as potential reservoirs of antimicrobial resistance.

BACKGROUND: This is a unique and novel study delineating the genotyping and subsequent prediction of AMR determinants of Vibrio cholerae revealing the potential of contemporary strains to serve as precursors of severe AMR crisis in cholera. METHODS AND RESULTS: Genotyping of representative strains, VC1 and VC2 was undertaken to characterize antimicrobial resistance genes (ARGs) against chloramphenicol, SXT, nalidixic acid and streptomycin against which they were found to be resistant by antibiogram analysis in our previous investigation. strAB, sxt, sul2, qace∆1-sul1 were detected by PCR. Genome annotation and identification of ARGs with WGS helped to detect the presence of almG, varG, strA (APH(3'')-Ib), strB (APH(6)-Id), sul2, catB9, floR, CRP, dfrA1 genes. Signatures of resistance determinants and protein domains involved in antimicrobial resistance, primarily, efflux of antibiotics were identified on the basis of 30-100% homology to reference proteins. These domains were predicted to be involved in other metabolic functions on the basis of 100% identity with 100% coverage with reference protein and nucleotide sequences and were predicted to be of a diverse taxonomic origin accentuating the influence of the microbiota on AMR acquisition. Sequence analysis of QRDR (quinolone resistance-determining region) revealed SNPs. Cytoscape v3.8.2 was employed to analyse protein-protein interaction of MDR proteins, MdtA and EmrD-2, with nodes of vital AMR pathways. Vital nodes involved in efflux of different classes of antibiotics were found to be absent in VC1 and VC2 justifying the sensitivity of these strains to most antibiotics. CONCLUSIONS: The study helped to examine the resistome of VC isolated from recent outbreaks to understand the underlying reason of sensitivity to most antibiotics and also to characterize the ARGs in their genome. It revealed that VC is a reservoir of signatures of resistance determinants and serving as precursors for severe AMR crisis in cholera. This is the first study, to our knowledge, which has scrutinized and presented systematically, information on prospective domains which bear the potential of serving as AMR determinants in VC with the help of bioinformatic tools. This pioneering approach may help in the prediction of AMR landfalls and benefit epidemiological surveillance and early warning systems.

Spatiotemporal dynamics of cholera hotspots in the Democratic Republic of the Congo from 1973 to 2022.

BACKGROUND: Since the early 1970s, cholera outbreaks have been a major public health burden in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Cholera cases have been reported in a quasi-continuous manner in certain lakeside areas in the Great Lakes Region. As these cholera-endemic health zones constitute a starting point for outbreaks and diffusion towards other at-risk areas, they play a major role in cholera dynamics in the country. Monitoring the spatiotemporal dynamics of cholera hotspots and adjusting interventions accordingly thus reduces the disease burden in an efficient and cost-effective manner. METHODS: A literature review was conducted to describe the spatiotemporal dynamics of cholera in the DRC at the province level from 1973 to 1999. We then identified and classified cholera hotspots at the provincial and health zone levels from 2003 to 2022 and described the spatiotemporal evolution of hotspots. We also applied and compared three different classification methods to ensure that cholera hotspots are identified and classified according to the DRC context. RESULTS: According to all three methods, high-priority hotspots were concentrated in the eastern Great Lakes Region. Overall, hotspots largely remained unchanged over the course of the study period, although slight improvements were observed in some eastern hotspots, while other non-endemic areas in the west experienced an increase in cholera outbreaks. The Global Task Force on Cholera Control (GTFCC) and the Department of Ecology and Infectious Disease Control (DEIDC) methods largely yielded similar results for the high-risk hotspots. However, the medium-priority hotspots identified by the GTFCC method were further sub-classified by the DEIDC method, thereby providing a more detailed ranking for priority targeting. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, the findings of this comprehensive study shed light on the dynamics of cholera hotspots in the DRC from 1973 to 2022. These results may serve as an evidence-based foundation for public health officials and policymakers to improve the implementation of the Multisectoral Cholera Elimination Plan, guiding targeted interventions and resource allocation to mitigate the impact of cholera in vulnerable communities.

Congruity of genomic and epidemiological data in modelling of local cholera outbreaks.

Cholera continues to be a global health threat. Understanding how cholera spreads between locations is fundamental to the rational, evidence-based design of intervention and control efforts. Traditionally, cholera transmission models have used cholera case-count data. More recently, whole-genome sequence data have qualitatively described cholera transmission. Integrating these data streams may provide much more accurate models of cholera spread; however, no systematic analyses have been performed so far to compare traditional case-count models to the phylodynamic models from genomic data for cholera transmission. Here, we use high-fidelity case-count and whole-genome sequencing data from the 1991 to 1998 cholera epidemic in Argentina to directly compare the epidemiological model parameters estimated from these two data sources. We find that phylodynamic methods applied to cholera genomics data provide comparable estimates that are in line with established methods. Our methodology represents a critical step in building a framework for integrating case-count and genomic data sources for cholera epidemiology and other bacterial pathogens.