Comparative review of novel model-assisted designs for phase I/II clinical trials.

In recent years, both model-based and model-assisted designs have emerged to efficiently determine the optimal biological dose (OBD) in phase I/II trials for immunotherapy and targeted cellular agents. Model-based designs necessitate repeated model fitting and computationally intensive posterior sampling for each dose-assignment decision, limiting their practical application in real trials. On the other hand, model-assisted designs employ simple statistical models and facilitate the precalculation of a decision table for use throughout the trial, eliminating the need for repeated model fitting. Due to their simplicity and transparency, model-assisted designs are often preferred in phase I/II trials. In this paper, we systematically evaluate and compare the operating characteristics of several recent model-assisted phase I/II designs, including TEPI, PRINTE, Joint i3+3, BOIN-ET, STEIN, uTPI, and BOIN12, in addition to the well-known model-based EffTox design, using comprehensive numerical simulations. To ensure an unbiased comparison, we generated 10,000 dosing scenarios using a random scenario generation algorithm for each predetermined OBD location. We thoroughly assess various performance metrics, such as the selection percentages, average patient allocation to OBD, and overdose percentages across the eight designs. Based on these assessments, we offer design recommendations tailored to different objectives, sample sizes, and starting dose locations.

Adult and pediatric relapsing multiple sclerosis phase II and phase III trial design and their primary end points: A systematic review.

No systematic review of trial designs in patients with relapsing multiple sclerosis (RMS) was reported. This systematic review was conducted on the trial designs and primary end points (PEs) of phase II and III trials intended to modify the natural course of the disease in patients with RMS. The purpose of the study is to explore trends/topics and discussion points in clinical trial design and PE, comparing them to regulatory guidelines and expert recommendations. Three trial registration systems, ClinicalTrials.gov, the EU Clinical Trials Register, and the Japan Registry of Clinical Trials, were used and 60 trials were evaluated. The dominant clinical trial design was a randomized controlled parallel-arms trial and other details were as follows: in adult phase III confirmatory trials (n = 32), active-controlled double-blind trial (DBT) (53%) and active-controlled open-label assessor-masking trial (16%); in adult phase II dose-finding trials (n = 9), placebo- and active-controlled DBT (44%), placebo-controlled DBT (22%), and placebo-controlled add-on DBT (22%); and in pediatric phase III confirmatory trials (n = 8), active-controlled DBT (38%) and active-controlled open-label non-masking trial (25%). The most common PEs were as follows: in adult confirmatory trials, annual relapse rate (ARR) (56%) and no evidence of disease activity-3 (NEDA-3) (13%); in adult dose-finding trials, the cumulative number of T1 gadolinium-enhancing lesions (56%), combined unique active lesions (22%), and overall disability response score (22%); and in pediatric confirmatory trials, ARR (38%) and time to first relapse (25%). It was suggested that some parts of the regulatory guidelines and expert recommendations need to be revised.

Study protocol for assessment of the efficacy of calcium dobesilate versus placebo on SARS-CoV-2 viral load in outpatients with COVID-19 (CADOVID study): a randomised, placebo-controlled, double-blind, monocentric phase II trial.

INTRODUCTION: SARS-CoV-2 mainly infects respiratory endothelial cells, which is facilitated through its spike protein binding to heparan sulphate. Calcium dobesilate (CaD) is a well-established, widely available vasoactive and angioprotective drug interacting with heparan sulphate, with the potential to interfere with the uptake of SARS-CoV-2 by epithelial cells. The CADOVID trial aims to evaluate the efficacy and safety of CaD in reducing the SARS-CoV-2 viral load in non-hospitalised adult patients diagnosed with COVID-19, confirmed by a positive SARS-CoV-2 PCR, including its efficacy to reduce the impact of persistent COVID-19 symptoms. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This is a randomised, placebo-controlled, double-blind, monocentric phase II trial. Enrolment began in July 2022. A total of 74 adult patients will be randomly allocated to the CaD arm or the placebo group with a 1:1 ratio, respectively. Participants in the intervention arm will receive two capsules of CaD 500 mg two times per day and the placebo arm will receive two matching capsules of mannitol 312.5 mg two times per day, with a treatment period of 7 days for both arms, followed by a 77-day observational period without treatment administration. Participants will be asked to complete secured online questionnaires using their personal smartphone or other electronic device. These include a COVID-19 questionnaire (assessing symptoms, temperature measurement, reporting of concomitant medication and adverse events), a COVID-19 persistent symptoms' questionnaire and the Short Form 12-Item (SF-12) survey. SARS-CoV-2 PCR testing will be performed on nasopharyngeal swabs collected on days 1, 4, 8 and 21. The primary endpoint is the reduction from baseline of SARS-CoV-2 viral load determined by RT-PCR at day 4. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This trial has received approval by the Geneva Regional Research Ethics Committee (2022-00613) and Swissmedic (701339). Dissemination of results will be through presentations at scientific conferences and publication in scientific journals. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT05305508; Clinicaltrials.gov; Swiss National Clinical Portal Registry (SNCTP 000004938).

Low-dose naltrexone for post-COVID fatigue syndrome: a study protocol for a double-blind, randomised trial in British Columbia.

INTRODUCTION: A significant proportion of individuals suffering from post COVID-19 condition (PCC, also known as long COVID) can present with persistent, disabling fatigue similar to myalgic encephalomyelitis/chronic fatigue syndrome (ME/CFS) and post-viral fatigue syndromes. There remains no clear pharmacological therapy for patients with this subtype of PCC, which can be referred to as post-COVID fatigue syndrome (PCFS). A low dose of the opioid antagonist naltrexone (ie, low-dose naltrexone (LDN)) has emerged as an off-label treatment for treating fatigue and other symptoms in PCC. However, only small, non-controlled studies have assessed LDN in PCC, so randomised trials are urgently required. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: A prospective, randomised, double-blind, parallel arm, placebo-controlled phase II trial will be performed to assess the efficacy of LDN for improving fatigue in PCFS. The trial will be decentralised and open to eligible individuals throughout the Canadian province of British Columbia (BC). Participants will be recruited through the province-wide Post-COVID-19 Interdisciplinary Clinical Care Network (PC-ICCN) and research volunteer platform (REACH BC). Eligible participants will be 19-69 years old, have had a confirmed or physician-suspected SARS-CoV-2 infection at least 3 months prior and meet clinical criteria for PCFS adapted from the Institute of Medicine ME/CFS criteria. Individuals who are taking opioid medications, have a history of ME/CFS prior to COVID-19 or history of significant liver disease will be excluded. Participants will be randomised to an LDN intervention arm (n=80) or placebo arm (n=80). Participants in each arm will be prescribed identical capsules starting at 1 mg daily and follow a prespecified schedule for up-titration to 4.5 mg daily or the maximum tolerated dose. The trial will be conducted over 16 weeks, with assessments at baseline, 6, 12 and 16 weeks. The primary outcome will be fatigue severity at 16 weeks evaluated by the Fatigue Severity Scale. Secondary outcomes will include pain Visual Analogue Scale score, overall symptom severity as measured by the Patient Phenotyping Questionnaire Short Form, 7-day step count and health-related quality of life measured by the EuroQol 5-Dimension questionnaire. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The trial has been authorised by Health Canada and approved by The University of British Columbia/Children's and Women's Health Centre of British Columbia Research Ethics Board. On completion, findings will be disseminated to patients, caregivers and clinicians through engagement activities within existing PCC and ME/CFS networks. Results will be published in academic journals and presented at conferences. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT05430152.

Functional imaging guided stereotactic ablative body radiotherapy (SABR) with focal dose escalation and bladder trigone sparing for intermediate and high-risk prostate cancer: study protocol for phase II safo trial.

BACKGROUND: Stereotactic ablative body radiotherapy (SABR) is an emerging treatment alternative for patients with localized low and intermediate risk prostate cancer patients. As already explored by some authors in the context of conventional moderate hypofractionated radiotherapy, focal boost of the index lesion defined by magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is associated with an improved biochemical outcome. The objective of this phase II trial is to determine the effectiveness (in terms of biochemical, morphological and functional control), the safety and impact on quality of life, of prostate SABR with MRI guided focal dose intensification in males with intermediate and high-risk localized prostate cancer. METHODS: Patients with intermediate and high-risk prostate cancer according to NCCN definition will be treated with SABR 36.25 Gy in 5 fractions to the whole prostate gland with MRI guided simultaneous integrated focal boost (SIB) to the index lesion (IL) up to 50 Gy in 5 fractions, using a protocol of bladder trigone and urethra sparing. Intra-fractional motion will be monitored with daily cone beam computed tomography (CBCT) and intra-fractional tracking with intraprostatic gold fiducials. Androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) will be allowed. The primary endpoint will be efficacy in terms of biochemical and local control assessed by Phoenix criteria and post-treatment MRI respectively. The secondary endpoints will encompass acute and late toxicity, quality of life (QoL) and progression-free survival. Finally, the subgroup of high-risk patients will be involved in a prospective study focused on immuno-phenotyping. DISCUSSION: To the best of our knowledge, this is the first trial to evaluate the impact of post-treatment MRI on local control among patients with intermediate and high-risk prostate cancer undergoing SABR and MRI guided focal intensification. The results of this trial will enhance our understanding of treatment focal intensification through the employment of the SABR technique within this specific patient subgroup, particularly among those with high-risk disease, and will help to clarify the significance of MRI in monitoring local responses. Hopefully will also help to design more personalized biomarker-based phase III trials in this specific context. Additionally, this trial is expected to be incorporated into a prospective radiomics study focused on localized prostate cancer treated with radiotherapy. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinicaltrials.gov identifier: NCT05919524; Registered 17 July 2023. TRIAL SPONSOR: IRAD/SEOR (Instituto de Investigación de Oncología Radioterápica / Sociedad Española de Oncología Radioterápica). STUDY SETTING: Clinicaltrials.gov identifier: NCT05919524; Registered 17 July 2023. TRIAL STATUS: Protocol version number and date: v. 5/ 17 May-2023. Date of recruitment start: August 8, 2023. Date of recruitment completion: July 1, 2024.

Comparing niraparib versus platinum-taxane doublet chemotherapy as neoadjuvant treatment in patients with newly diagnosed homologous recombination-deficient stage III/IV ovarian cancer: study protocol for cohort C of the open-label, phase 2, randomized controlled multicenter OPAL trial.

BACKGROUND: Maintenance therapy with niraparib, a poly(ADP-ribose) polymerase inhibitor, has been shown to extend progression-free survival in patients with newly diagnosed advanced ovarian cancer who responded to first-line platinum-based chemotherapy, regardless of biomarker status. However, there are limited data on niraparib's efficacy and safety in the neoadjuvant setting. The objective of Cohort C of the OPAL trial (OPAL-C) is to evaluate the efficacy, safety, and tolerability of neoadjuvant niraparib treatment compared with neoadjuvant platinum-taxane doublet chemotherapy in patients with newly diagnosed stage III/IV ovarian cancer with confirmed homologous recombination-deficient tumors. METHODS: OPAL is an ongoing global, multicenter, randomized, open-label, phase 2 trial. In OPAL-C, patients will be randomized 1:1 to receive three 21-day cycles of either neoadjuvant niraparib or platinum-taxane doublet neoadjuvant chemotherapy per standard of care. Patients with a complete or partial response per Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors version 1.1 (RECIST v1.1) will then undergo interval debulking surgery; patients with stable disease may proceed to interval debulking surgery or alternative therapy at the investigator's discretion. Patients with disease progression will exit the study treatment and proceed to alternative therapy at the investigator's discretion. After interval debulking surgery, all patients will receive up to three 21-day cycles of platinum-taxane doublet chemotherapy followed by niraparib maintenance therapy for up to 36 months. Adult patients with newly diagnosed stage III/IV ovarian cancer eligible to receive neoadjuvant platinum-taxane doublet chemotherapy followed by interval debulking surgery may be enrolled. Patients must have tumors that are homologous recombination-deficient. The primary endpoint is the pre-interval debulking surgery unconfirmed overall response rate, defined as the investigator-assessed percentage of patients with unconfirmed complete or partial response on study treatment before interval debulking surgery per RECIST v1.1. DISCUSSION: OPAL-C explores the use of niraparib in the neoadjuvant setting as an alternative to neoadjuvant platinum-taxane doublet chemotherapy to improve postsurgical residual disease outcomes for patients with ovarian cancer with homologous recombination-deficient tumors. Positive findings from this approach could significantly impact preoperative ovarian cancer therapy, particularly for patients who are ineligible for primary debulking surgery. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03574779. Registered on February 28, 2022.

Efficacy and safety of pentosan polysulfate sodium in people with symptomatic knee osteoarthritis and dyslipidaemia: protocol of the MaRVeL trial.

INTRODUCTION: Knee osteoarthritis (OA) is the most prevalent arthritis type and a leading cause of chronic mobility disability. While pain medications provide only symptomatic pain relief; growing evidence suggests pentosan polysulfate sodium (PPS) is chondroprotective and could have anti-inflammatory effects in knee OA. This study aims to explore the efficacy and safety of oral PPS in symptomatic knee OA with dyslipidaemia. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: MaRVeL is a phase II, single-centre, parallel, superiority trial which will be conducted at Royal North Shore Hospital, Sydney, Australia. 92 participants (46 per arm) aged 40 and over with painful knee OA and mild to moderate structural change on X-ray (Kellgren and Lawrence grade 2 or 3) will be recruited from the community and randomly allocated to receive two cycles of either oral PPS or placebo for 5 weeks starting at baseline and week 11. Primary outcome will be the 16-week change in overall average knee pain severity measured using an 11-point Numeric Rating Scale. Main secondary outcomes include change in knee pain, patient global assessment, physical function, quality of life and other structural changes. A biostatistician blinded to allocation groups will perform the statistical analysis according to the intention-to-treat principle. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The protocol has been approved by the NSLHD Human Research Ethics Committee (HREC) (2021/ETH00315). All participants will provide written informed consent online. Study results will be disseminated through conferences, social media and academic publications. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBERS: Australian New Zealand Clinical Trial Registry (ACTRN12621000654853); U1111-1265-3750.

RECOVER-NEURO: study protocol for a multi-center, multi-arm, phase 2, randomized, active comparator trial evaluating three interventions for cognitive dysfunction in post-acute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 infection (PASC).

BACKGROUND: Post-acute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 infection (PASC) symptoms have broad impact, and may affect individuals regardless of COVID-19 severity, socioeconomic status, race, ethnicity, or age. A prominent PASC symptom is cognitive dysfunction, colloquially referred to as "brain fog" and characterized by declines in short-term memory, attention, and concentration. Cognitive dysfunction can severely impair quality of life by impairing daily functional skills and preventing timely return to work. METHODS: RECOVER-NEURO is a prospective, multi-center, multi-arm, phase 2, randomized, active-comparator design investigating 3 interventions: (1) BrainHQ is an interactive, online cognitive training program; (2) PASC-Cognitive Recovery is a cognitive rehabilitation program specifically designed to target frequently reported challenges among individuals with brain fog; (3) transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS) is a noninvasive form of mild electrical brain stimulation. The interventions will be combined to establish 5 arms: (1) BrainHQ; (2) BrainHQ + PASC-Cognitive Recovery; (3) BrainHQ + tDCS-active; (4) BrainHQ + tDCS-sham; and (5) Active Comparator. The interventions will occur for 10 weeks. Assessments will be completed at baseline and at the end of intervention and will include cognitive testing and patient-reported surveys. All study activities can be delivered in Spanish and English. DISCUSSION: This study is designed to test whether cognitive dysfunction symptoms can be alleviated by the use of pragmatic and established interventions with different mechanisms of action and with prior evidence of improving cognitive function in patients with neurocognitive disorder. If successful, results will provide beneficial treatments for PASC-related cognitive dysfunction. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT05965739. Registered on July 25, 2023.

SCARLET (Supplemental Citicoline Administration to Reduce Lung injury Efficacy Trial): study protocol for a single-site, double-blinded, placebo-controlled, and randomized Phase 1/2 trial of i.v. citicoline (CDP-choline) in hospitalized SARS CoV-2-infected patients with hypoxemic acute respiratory failure.

BACKGROUND: The SARS CoV-2 pandemic has resulted in more than 1.1 million deaths in the USA alone. Therapeutic options for critically ill patients with COVID-19 are limited. Prior studies showed that post-infection treatment of influenza A virus-infected mice with the liponucleotide CDP-choline, which is an essential precursor for de novo phosphatidylcholine synthesis, improved gas exchange and reduced pulmonary inflammation without altering viral replication. In unpublished studies, we found that treatment of SARS CoV-2-infected K18-hACE2-transgenic mice with CDP-choline prevented development of hypoxemia. We hypothesize that administration of citicoline (the pharmaceutical form of CDP-choline) will be safe in hospitalized SARS CoV-2-infected patients with hypoxemic acute respiratory failure (HARF) and that we will obtain preliminary evidence of clinical benefit to support a larger Phase 3 trial using one or more citicoline doses. METHODS: We will conduct a single-site, double-blinded, placebo-controlled, and randomized Phase 1/2 dose-ranging and safety study of Somazina® citicoline solution for injection in consented adults of any sex, gender, age, or ethnicity hospitalized for SARS CoV-2-associated HARF. The trial is named "SCARLET" (Supplemental Citicoline Administration to Reduce Lung injury Efficacy Trial). We hypothesize that SCARLET will show that i.v. citicoline is safe at one or more of three doses (0.5, 2.5, or 5 mg/kg, every 12 h for 5 days) in hospitalized SARS CoV-2-infected patients with HARF (20 per dose) and provide preliminary evidence that i.v. citicoline improves pulmonary outcomes in this population. The primary efficacy outcome will be the SpO2:FiO2 ratio on study day 3. Exploratory outcomes include Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) scores, dead space ventilation index, and lung compliance. Citicoline effects on a panel of COVID-relevant lung and blood biomarkers will also be determined. DISCUSSION: Citicoline has many characteristics that would be advantageous to any candidate COVID-19 therapeutic, including safety, low-cost, favorable chemical characteristics, and potentially pathogen-agnostic efficacy. Successful demonstration that citicoline is beneficial in severely ill patients with SARS CoV-2-induced HARF could transform management of severely ill COVID patients. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The trial was registered at www. CLINICALTRIALS: gov on 5/31/2023 (NCT05881135). TRIAL STATUS: Currently enrolling.

ZOom Delivered Intervention Against Cognitive decline (ZODIAC) COVID-19 pandemic adaptations to the Post-Ischaemic Stroke Cardiovascular Exercise Study (PISCES): protocol for a randomised controlled trial of remotely delivered fitness training for brain health.

BACKGROUND: Stroke increases subsequent dementia risk yet there are no specific post-stroke therapies to protect cognition. Cardiorespiratory exercise is recommended for secondary prevention of stroke and may be neuroprotective. The Post Ischaemic Stroke Cardiovascular Exercise Study (PISCES) aims to reduce post-stroke secondary neurodegeneration and cognitive decline. During the pandemic, we pivoted to a ZOom Delivered Intervention Against Cognitive decline (ZODIAC) protocol, reducing pandemic-amplified barriers to exercise. METHODS: We present pandemic adaptions for a multicentre phase IIb assessor-blinded randomised controlled trial of ischaemic stroke survivors testing the efficacy and feasibility of an 8-week home-based exercise intervention delivered at 2 months post-stroke. We compare cardiorespiratory exercise (intervention arm) versus balance and stretching (active control arm). Participants are assessed with magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), fitness, blood, microbiome, and neuropsychological tests at three study visits: before and after the exercise intervention and at 12 months. Modifications to the original protocol include pre-exercise safety home visits, commercial delivery of exercise equipment to facilitate assessor blinding, and reconsideration of statistical plan to allow pooling of the studies. We have reduced in-person study visits from 27 to 3. Primary outcome remains between-group (intervention versus control) difference in brain volume change; secondary outcome is between-group difference in global cognitive ability to allow remote administration of a validated cognitive scale. DISCUSSION: Remotely delivered exercise interventions reduce participant burden and may reduce barriers to recruitment. A decrease in the number of in-person study visits can be supported by greater information capture via self-reported questionnaires and phone surveys. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Prospectively ACTRN12616000942459. Registered on July 2016.

Sildenafil Versus Placebo for Early Pulmonary Vascular Disease in Scleroderma (SEPVADIS): protocol for a randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Pulmonary hypertension (PH) is a leading cause of death in patients with systemic sclerosis (SSc). An important component of SSc patient management is early detection and treatment of PH. Recently the threshold for the diagnosis of PH has been lowered to a mean pulmonary artery pressure (mPAP) threshold of > 20 mmHg on right heart catheterization (RHC). However, it is unknown if PH-specific therapy is beneficial in SSc patients with mildly elevated pressure (SSc-MEP, mPAP 21-24 mmHg). METHODS: The SEPVADIS trial is a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled phase 2 trial of sildenafil in SSc-MEP patients with a target enrollment of 30 patients from two academic sites in the United States. The primary outcome is change in six-minute walk distance after 16 weeks of treatment. Secondary endpoints include change in pulmonary arterial compliance by RHC and right ventricular function by cardiac magnetic resonance imaging at 16 weeks. Echocardiography, serum N-terminal probrain natriuretic peptide, and health-related quality of life is being measured at 16 and 52 weeks. DISCUSSION: The SEPVADIS trial will be the first randomized study of sildenafil in SSc-MEP patients. The results of this trial will be used to inform a phase 3 study to investigate the efficacy of treating patients with mild elevations in mPAP. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier NCT04797286.

Accelerate vaccine development using seamless phase 2/3 trial designs.

BACKGROUND: Traditional vaccine development, often a lengthy and costly process of three separated phases. However, the swift development of COVID-19 vaccines highlighted the critical importance of accelerating the approval of vaccines. This article showcases a seamless phase 2/3 trial design to expedite the development process, particularly for multi-valent vaccines. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: This study utilizes simulation to compare the performance of seamless phase 2/3 design with that of conventional trial design, specifically by re-envisioning a 9-valent HPV vaccine trial. Across three cases, several key performance metrics are evaluated: overall power, type I error rate, average sample size, trial duration, the percentage of early stop, and the accuracy of dose selection. RESULTS: On average, when the experimental vaccine was assumed to be effective, the seamless design that performed interim analyses based solely on efficacy saved 555.73 subjects, shortened trials by 10.29 months, and increased power by 3.70%. When the experimental vaccine was less effective than control, it saved an average of 887.73 subjects while maintaining the type I error rate below 0.025. CONCLUSION: The seamless design proves to be a compelling strategy for vaccine development, given its versatility in early stopping, re-estimating sample sizes, and shortening trial durations.

Event-free survival in relapsed and refractory rhabdomyosarcoma treated on cooperative group phase II trials: A report from the Children's Oncology Group.

BACKGROUND: Novel therapies are needed for relapsed and refractory rhabdomyosarcoma (RRMS). Phase II clinical trials in RRMS have typically utilized radiologic response as the primary activity endpoint, an approach that poses several limitations in RRMS. In this analysis, we aimed to estimate an event-free survival (EFS) endpoint for RRMS that could be used as a benchmark for future studies. PROCEDURE: We performed a retrospective study of patients with RRMS enrolling on 13 single-agent phase II Children's Oncology Group and legacy group trials from 1997 to 2016. All included trials used radiographic response as their primary activity endpoint. Six-month EFS was estimated from time of trial enrollment with 95% confidence intervals. Clinical characteristics, including trial of enrollment, sex, age, race, histology, number of prior chemotherapies, and radiographic response were evaluated for their impact on 6-month EFS. RESULTS: We identified 175 patients across 13 trials. The 6-month EFS was 16.8% (11.6%-22.8%). No differences were seen in 6-month EFS based on age, sex, race, or histology. There were nonsignificant trends toward improved 6-month EFS for patients with less than or equal to two prior lines of therapy versus higher than two, for patients enrolled on trials that achieved their primary radiographic response endpoint versus trials that did not, and for patients who achieved complete or partial response compared to those achieving stable disease. CONCLUSIONS: The prognosis of RRMS enrolled on single-agent phase II trials is poor. This pooled 6-month EFS of RRMS on single-agent trials may be used as a RRMS-specific benchmark for future single-agent phase II trials.

Consistent efficacy outcomes between phase 2 and phase 3 trials in Crohn's disease or ulcerative colitis in adults: a meta-analysis.

INTRODUCTION: The approval of novel biologic agents and small molecules for the treatment of Crohn's disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC) is dependent on phase 3 randomized controlled trials (RCTs). However, these trials sometimes fail to achieve the expected efficacy outcomes observed in phase 2 trials. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review of RCTs that evaluated biologic agents and small molecules using paired regimens in both phase 2 and phase 3. We searched Medline, EMBASE, and Cochrane databases up until February 13, 2024. The revised Cochrane tool was utilized to assess the risk of bias. A generalized linear mixed-effects model (GLMM) was employed to estimate the odds ratios (ORs) for efficacy outcomes in phase 2 trials compared to phase 3. RESULTS: We identified a total of 23 trials with 10 paired regimens for CD and 30 trials with 11 paired regimens for UC. The GLMM analysis revealed that phase 2 CD trials had higher outcomes measured by the Crohn's Disease Activity Index (CDAI) by 9-13% without statistical significance: CDAI-150: OR, 1.12 (95% CI 0.83-1.51, p = 0.41); CDAI-100: OR, 1.09 (95% CI 0.88-1.35, p = 0.40); or CDAI-70: OR, 1.13 (95% CI 0.61-2.08, p = 0.66). For UC, two efficacy outcomes were estimated to be equally reported in phase 2/phase 3 pairs: clinical remission: OR, 1.00 (95% CI 0.83-1.20, p = 0.96); endoscopic improvement: OR, 0.98 (95% CI 0.83-1.15, p = 0.79). However, the rate of clinical response was underestimated in phase 2 by 19%: OR, 0.81 (95% CI 0.70-0.95, p = 0.03). The inclusion criterion for the type of Mayo score for UC had a significant interaction with the study phase to influence the difference in clinical response (p = 0.002). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that the main efficacy outcomes for CD and UC remain consistent between phase 2 and phase 3 trials, except for UC response rates. The efficacy data obtained from phase 2 trials can be considered reliable for the design of subsequent phase 3 trials. REGISTRATION: PROSPERO (CRD42023407947).

Confidence intervals for odds ratio from multistage randomized phase II trials.

A multi-stage randomized trial design can significantly improve efficiency by allowing early termination of the trial when the experimental arm exhibits either low or high efficacy compared to the control arm during the study. However, proper inference methods are necessary because the underlying distribution of the target statistic changes due to the multi-stage structure. This article focuses on multi-stage randomized phase II trials with a dichotomous outcome, such as treatment response, and proposes exact conditional confidence intervals for the odds ratio. The usual single-stage confidence intervals are invalid when used in multi-stage trials. To address this issue, we propose a linear ordering of all possible outcomes. This ordering is conditioned on the total number of responders in each stage and utilizes the exact conditional distribution function of the outcomes. This approach enables the estimation of an exact confidence interval accounting for the multi-stage designs.

Statistical considerations in model-based dose finding for binary responses under model uncertainty.

The statistical methodology for model-based dose finding under model uncertainty has attracted increasing attention in recent years. While the underlying principles are simple and easy to understand, developing and implementing an efficient approach for binary responses can be a formidable task in practice. Motivated by the statistical challenges encountered in a phase II dose finding study, we explore several key design and analysis issues related to the hybrid testing-modeling approaches for binary responses. The issues include candidate model selection and specifications, optimal design and efficient sample size allocations, and, notably, the methods for dose-response testing and estimation. Specifically, we consider a class of generalized linear models suited for the candidate set and establish D-optimal designs for these models. Additionally, we propose using permutation-based tests for dose-response testing to avoid asymptotic normality assumptions typically required for contrast-based tests. We perform trial simulations to enhance our understanding of these issues.

Epirubicin for the Treatment of Sepsis and Septic Shock (EPOS-1): study protocol for a randomised, placebo-controlled phase IIa dose-escalation trial.

INTRODUCTION: Sepsis remains the major cause of death among hospitalised patients in intensive care. While targeting sepsis-causing pathogens with source control or antimicrobials has had a dramatic impact on morbidity and mortality of sepsis patients, this strategy remains insufficient for about one-third of the affected individuals who succumb. Pharmacological targeting of mechanisms that reduce sepsis-defining organ dysfunction may be beneficial. When given at low doses, the anthracycline epirubicin promotes tissue damage control and lessens the severity of sepsis independently of the host-pathogen load by conferring disease tolerance to infection. Since epirubicin at higher doses can be myelotoxic, a first dose-response trial is necessary to assess the potential harm of this drug in this new indication. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Epirubicin for the Treatment of Sepsis and Septic Shock-1 is a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled phase 2 dose-escalation phase IIa clinical trial to assess the safety of epirubicin as an adjunctive in patients with sepsis. The primary endpoint is the 14-day myelotoxicity. Secondary and explorative outcomes include 30-day and 90-day mortality, organ dysfunction, pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) and cytokine release. Patients will be randomised in three consecutive phases. For each study phase, patients are randomised to one of the two study arms (epirubicin or placebo) in a 4:1 ratio. Approximately 45 patients will be recruited. Patients in the epirubicin group will receive a single dose of epirubicin (3.75, 7.5 or 15 mg/m2 depending on the study phase. After each study phase, a data and safety monitoring board will recommend continuation or premature stopping of the trial. The primary analyses for each dose level will report the proportion of myelotoxicity together with a 95% CI. A potential dose-toxicity association will be analysed using a logistic regression model with dose as a covariate. All further analyses will be descriptive. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The protocol is approved by the German Federal Institute for Drugs and Medical Devices. The results will be submitted for publication in peer-reviewed journals. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT05033808.

The efficacy of real versus sham external Trigeminal Nerve Stimulation (eTNS) in youth with Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) over 4 weeks: a protocol for a multi-centre, double-blind, randomized, parallel-group, phase IIb study (ATTENS).

BACKGROUND: Attention Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD), if severe, is usually treated with stimulant or non-stimulant medication. However, users prefer non-drug treatments due to side effects. Alternative non-medication treatments have so far only shown modest effects. External trigeminal nerve stimulation (eTNS) is a minimal risk, non-invasive neuromodulation device, targeting the trigeminal system. It was approved for ADHD in 2019 by the USA Food and Drug administration (FDA) based on a small proof of concept randomised controlled trial (RCT) in 62 children with ADHD showing improvement of ADHD symptoms after 4 weeks of nightly real versus sham eTNS with minimal side effects. We present here the protocol of a larger confirmatory phase IIb study testing efficacy, longer-term persistency of effects and underlying mechanisms of action. METHODS: A confirmatory, sham-controlled, double-blind, parallel-arm, multi-centre phase IIb RCT of 4 weeks of eTNS in 150 youth with ADHD, recruited in London, Portsmouth, and Southampton, UK. Youth with ADHD will be randomized to either real or sham eTNS, applied nightly for 4 weeks. Primary outcome is the change in the investigator-administered parent rated ADHD rating scale. Secondary outcomes are other clinical and cognitive measures, objective hyperactivity and pupillometry measures, side effects, and maintenance of effects over 6 months. The mechanisms of action will be tested in a subgroup of 56 participants using magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) before and after the 4-week treatment. DISCUSSION: This multi-centre phase IIb RCT will confirm whether eTNS is effective in a larger age range of children and adolescents with ADHD, whether it improves cognition and other clinical measures, whether efficacy persists at 6 months and it will test underlying brain mechanisms. The results will establish whether eTNS is effective and safe as a novel non-pharmacological treatment for ADHD. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN82129325 on 02/08/2021, https://doi.org/10.1186/ISRCTN82129325 .

Protocol for a phase II study to evaluate the efficacy and safety of nivolumab as a postoperative adjuvant therapy for patients with esophageal cancer treated with preoperative docetaxel, cisplatin plus 5-fluorouracil treatment (PENTAGON trial).

BACKGROUND: In Japan, preoperative adjuvant chemotherapy followed by surgical resection is the standard treatment for patients with locally advanced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma. However, the risk of recurrence after surgical resection remains high. Although a randomized controlled trial evaluating the efficacy of nivolumab, a fully human monoclonal anti-programmed death 1 antibody, as postoperative adjuvant therapy after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy and surgery established its superior efficacy as adjuvant therapy, the efficacy for patients who received preoperative adjuvant chemotherapy has not been demonstrated. This study aims to elucidate the efficacy and safety of nivolumab as postoperative adjuvant therapy for patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma after preoperative adjuvant chemotherapy with docetaxel and cisplatin plus 5-fluorouracil followed by surgical resection. METHODS: This study is a multi-institutional, single-arm, Phase II trial. We plan to recruit 130 esophageal squamous cell carcinoma patients, who have undergone preoperative adjuvant chemotherapy with docetaxel and cisplatin plus 5-fluorouracil followed by surgical resection. If the patient did not have a pathological complete response, nivolumab is started as a postoperative adjuvant therapy within 4-16 weeks after surgery. The nivolumab dose is 480 mg/day every four weeks. Nivolumab is administered for up to 12 months. The primary endpoint is disease-free survival; the secondary endpoints are overall survival, distant metastasis-free survival, and incidence of adverse events. DISCUSSION: To our knowledge this study is the first trial establishing the efficacy of nivolumab as postoperative adjuvant therapy for patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma after preoperative adjuvant chemotherapy with docetaxel and cisplatin plus 5-fluorouracil followed by surgical resection. In Japan, preoperative adjuvant chemotherapy followed by surgery is a well-established standard treatment for resectable, locally advanced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma. Therefore, developing an effective postoperative adjuvant therapy has been essential for improving oncological outcomes.