Shifts in drug seizures in the United States during the COVID-19 pandemic.

BACKGROUND: Little is known regarding how the COVID-19 pandemic has affected patterns of drug use in the United States. Because drug seizures can serve as a proxy for drug availability, we examined shifts in drug seizures in the US during the pandemic. METHODS: We examined trends in seizures of marijuana, cocaine, methamphetamine, heroin, and fentanyl within five High Intensity Drug Trafficking Areas-Washington/Baltimore, Chicago, Ohio, New Mexico, and North Florida. Trends were examined for number and total weight of seizures from March 2019 through September 2020 using Joinpoint regression. RESULTS: Significant decreases in seizures involving marijuana (ß = -0.03, P = 0.005) and methamphetamine (ß = -0.02, P = 0.026) were detected through April 2020, and then seizures of marijuana (ß = 0.10, P = 0.028) and methamphetamine (ß = 0.11, P = 0.010) significantly increased through September 2020. The number of seizures involving marijuana and methamphetamine peaked in August 2020, exceeding the highest pre-COVID-19 number of seizures. Fentanyl seizures increased overall (ß = 0.05, P < .001), but did not significantly drop during the start of COVID-19, and significant changes were not detected for cocaine or heroin. We also detected a significant increase in weight of marijuana seized from April through September 2020 (ß = 0.40, P = .001). The weight of marijuana seized in August 2020 exceeded the highest pre-COVID-19 weight. CONCLUSION: The COVID-19 pandemic was associated with an immediate decrease in marijuana and methamphetamine seizures, and then increases throughout 2020 with some months exceeding the number (and weights) of seizures from the previous year. More research is warranted to determine the extent to which these seizures reflect changes in drug use.

Is Cocaine Coming Back? A Commentary.

Background: This commentary considers the potential return of cocaine and the need for intervention and treatment responses. Objectives: To show historical and contemporaneous epidemiological data on indicators of the expected increase in cocaine use. Methods: Data on increases in acreage of cocaine cultivation are presented, along with increases in treatment admissions, toxicological laboratory identifications of cocaine, poison center episodes, and overdose deaths. Characteristics of those entering treatment for problems with cocaine now are compared to the characteristics of those in treatment 23 year ago. Conclusions: There is a need to target prevention and intervention programs based on characteristics of users, and given the lack of FDA-approved medication-assisted treatment for cocaine, attention should be shifted to this epidemic before it reaches the severity as seen om the 1990s.

When does the cutting of cocaine and heroin occur? The first large-scale study based on the chemical analysis of cocaine and heroin seizures in Switzerland.

BACKGROUND: Illicit drug profiling can provide knowledge about illicit drug markets, informing on the level of distribution and its evolution in space and time. Illicit drug profiling is usually limited to impurities originally present in the illicit drug (e.g. alkaloids, co-extracted compounds or by-products). However, the benefit of a comprehensive analysis of cutting agents in drug seizures for law enforcement agencies, intelligence and health policy has not been thoroughly investigated in the literature and is the focus of this research. AIM: This research aims at assessing when and how cutting (i.e. adulteration and dilution) occurs in the supply chain by analysing cocaine and heroin seizures made between 2006 and 2015 in Switzerland. METHODS: Cocaine and heroin seizures made along the supply chain by law enforcement agencies in the Western region of Switzerland were investigated for adulteration and dilution. A total number of 7841 cocaine and 3476 heroin specimens coming from 1341 and 721 seizures, respectively, were analysed. RESULTS: The results show that, for both illicit drugs, adulteration and/or dilution occur before arrival into Switzerland as well as in Switzerland. While cocaine is adulterated and diluted, heroin is only adulterated. Interestingly, the same mixture of adulterants (i.e. caffeine-paracetamol) is used to cut heroin at each step in the supply chain. CONCLUSION: Gaining knowledge about adulteration and dilution at different stages in the supply chain enhances our understanding of drug markets. It also highlights differences along the supply chain and in the distribution of both drugs in Switzerland.

Supply-Side Disruption in Cocaine Production Associated With Cocaine-Related Maternal and Child Health Outcomes in the United States.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the effects of precursor chemical regulation aimed at reducing cocaine production on cocaine-related maternal and newborn hospital stays in the United States. METHODS: We analyzed monthly counts of maternal and neonatal stays from January 2002 through December 2013 by using a quasi-experimental interrupted time series design. We estimated the preregulation linear trend, postregulation change in linear trend, and abrupt change in level. RESULTS: The number of monthly cocaine-related maternal and neonatal stays decreased by 221 and 128 stays, respectively, following the cocaine precursor regulation change. We also observed a further decline in per-month maternal and neonatal stays of 18 and 8 stays, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: A supply-side disruption in the United States cocaine market was associated with reduced hospital stays for 2 vulnerable populations: pregnant women and newborns. Results support findings that federal precursor regulation can positively reduce cocaine availability in the United States.

Coca cultivation and crop eradication in Colombia: The challenges of integrating rural reality into effective anti-drug policy.

This paper examines the positive and negative (or intended and unintended) impacts of anti-drug policies such as the aerial spraying of coca crops in Colombia. It provides spatial analysis of coca cultivation and crop eradication at a fine scale of resolution using the latest UNODC data. The findings suggest that anti-drug policy in Colombia between 2001 and 2012 has had some success with a significant decrease in overall levels of coca cultivation, but that it has also led to the displacement of coca cultivation, notably to areas within the Colombian Pacific region. Negative impacts include continued deforestation and damage to ecosystems, and the further marginalization of Afro-Colombian communities whose collective territories have been subject to increased coca cultivation between 2001 and 2012. Alternative development programs have not been well aligned with such areas where other illegal activities such as mining as well as coca cultivation now occur. Hence the importance of designing anti-drug policy that comprehensively integrates the local nuances of those peoples and places affected by coca cultivation and crop eradication according to their particular contexts.

"Coca got us here and now it's our weakness:" Fusarium oxysporum and the political ecology of a drug war policy alternative in Bolivia.

BACKGROUND: A strain of Fusarium oxysporum fungus is killing coca plants in the Chapare coca growing region of Bolivia. Coca farmers are already constrained in the amount of coca they can grow under the government's community-based coca control approach, "social control." Coca leaf is the main ingredient in cocaine, but it is also a traditional medicine and food, is economically vital to household incomes, and is a political symbol of the current government administration. Bolivia's approach to coca control, now administered without any United States military intervention, is an innovative example of experimentation with drug policy reform. METHODS: This paper is based on ethnographic research including semi-structured interviews and observation. RESULTS: Coca growers are worried about the dire economic, social, and political consequences of the fungus' appearance and spread since summer 2013. They have two explanations for its origins: First, that it was sent by the United States government, which in the past was developing a strain of F. oxysporum for use in the drug war; Second, and the explanation of scientists, is that the outbreak is caused by the overuse of agrochemicals and other intensive agricultural practices. CONCLUSION: More than a matter of agroecology, the practices identified in the second explanation must be understood in terms of the persistence of the international drug prohibition regime. Bolivia's social control approach is a successful alternative to violent eradication measures, however the country is constrained to uphold the fundamental principles of supply-side control in order to be a respected partner in global drug control. The supply-side logics restricting social control make intensive agriculture practices attractive, but may have contributed to the fungus' proliferation and its continued spread. The fungus draws attention to the challenges of policy reform, new collateral damages of drug control, and role environmental factors can play in drug control politics.

Strategies for a risky business: How drug dealers manage customers, suppliers and competitors in Italy, Slovenia and Germany.

BACKGROUND: A growing body of literature aims to improve understanding of the operations of drug trafficking markets through conducting interviews with dealers and traffickers. Insight into how these individuals conduct business can provide evidence to inform the efforts by policy makers, law enforcement and practitioners to disrupt illicit markets. This paper aims to make a contribution to this evidence base by extending the number of European countries in which interviews have been conducted with incarcerated drug dealers and traffickers. METHODS: It draws on interviews with 135 men convicted of offences related to the distribution or sale of heroin or cocaine and imprisoned in Italy, Slovenia and Germany. The research was conducted as part of the Reframing Addictions Project (ALICE-RAP) funded by the European Commission. The sample was diverse. It included a range of nationalities and some individuals who were members of organised crime groups. The majority of the interviewees were dealers who sold at the retail and street level, but there were some who were importers and wholesalers. FINDINGS: Most dealers in each of the three countries reported having more than one regular supplier, and were able to respond to periods of over and under supply without losing customers. Supply arrangements varied in terms of frequency and quantities bought. Dealers engaged in repeated transactions and their relationships with customers were based on trust and reputation. Dealers aimed to sell to regular customers and to provide drugs of good quality. While dealers sought to maximise their profits by cutting drugs with cutting agents, the quality of drugs that they sold could affect their reputation and thus their profits and position in the market. Lastly, while there are some significant differences in the approach between those involved in organised crime groups and those who are not, and between street dealers and those operating at higher levels of the market, there were striking similarities in terms of the day-to-day operational concerns and modes of relationship management. CONCLUSIONS: Interviewees' arrangements for securing supplies of drugs provide support to the notion that drug markets are resilient and flexible. Our findings correspond with other empirical research in relation to the centrality of trust in the practical operation of supply and sale of drugs. The research highlights some differences, but important similarities between dealers who were part of organised crime groups and those who were not; dealers all faced some common challenges and adopted some common responses to these.

New answers to an old problem: Social investment and coca crops in Colombia.

BACKGROUND: For more than 30 years, the main strategy to control illicit coca crops has been forced eradication. Despite the importance of social investment and persistent poverty in areas where illicit crops are grown, there is no empirical evidence of the effect of social expenditures on preventing and reducing the expansion of illicit crops. METHODS: This paper analyses how social investment in conjunction with eradication affects new coca crops. The model is tested using a dataset consisting of annual data for 440 contiguous municipalities that had coca in any year between 2001 and 2010. The analysis includes the two main techniques used to control illicit crops, manual eradication and aerial spraying. RESULTS: Aerial spraying is effective in deterring farmers from increasing the size of their new coca fields, but this effect is small. Social investment, in addition to generating social welfare, has a significant negative relationship with new coca crops, 0.09-hectare reduction in new coca crops per additional 50-cent spent in social investment (human capital and infrastructure) per inhabitant. CONCLUSION: Social investment emerges as a complementary and effective strategy to control illicit crops.

Modeling the structure and operation of drug supply chains: The case of cocaine and heroin in Italy and Slovenia.

Multiple layers of dealers connect international drug traffickers to users. The fundamental activity of these dealers is buying from higher-level dealers and re-selling in smaller quantities at the next lower market level. Each instance of this can be viewed as completing a drug dealing "cycle". This paper introduces an approach for combining isolated accounts of such cycles into a coherent model of the structure, span, and profitability of the various layers of the domestic supply chain for illegal drugs. The approach is illustrated by synthesizing data from interviews with 116 incarcerated dealers to elucidate the structure and operation of distribution networks for cocaine and heroin in Italy and Slovenia. Inmates' descriptions of cycles in the Italian cocaine market suggest fairly orderly networks, with reasonably well-defined market levels. The Italian heroin market appears to have more "level-jumpers" who skip a market level by making a larger number of sales per cycle, with each sale being of a considerably smaller weight. Slovenian data are sparser, but broadly consistent. Incorporating prices allows calculation of how much of the revenue from retail sales is retained by dealers at each market level. In the Italian cocaine market, both retail sellers and the international supply chain outside of Italy each appear to receive about 30-40% of what users spend, with the remaining 30% going to higher-level dealers operating in Italy (roughly 10% to those at the multi-kilo level and 20% to lower level wholesale dealers). Factoring in cycle frequencies permits rough estimation of the number of organizations at each market level per billion euros in retail sales, and of annual net revenues for organizations at each level. These analyses provide an approach to gaining insight into the structure and operation of the supply chain for illegal drugs. They also illustrate the value of two new graphical tools for describing illicit drug supply chains and hint at possible biases in how respondents describe their drug dealing activities.

An ethnographic exploration of drug markets in Kisumu, Kenya.

BACKGROUND: Illegal drug markets are shaped by multiple forces, including local actors and broader economic, political, social, and criminal justice systems that intertwine to impact health and social wellbeing. Ethnographic analyses that interrogate multiple dimensions of drug markets may offer both applied and theoretical insights into drug use, particularly in developing nations where new markets and local patterns of use traditionally have not been well understood. This paper explores the emergent drug market in Kisumu, western Kenya, where our research team recently documented evidence of injection drug use. METHODS: Our exploratory study of injection drug use was conducted in Kisumu from 2013 to 2014. We draw on 151 surveys, 29 in-depth interviews, and 8 months of ethnographic fieldwork to describe the drug market from the perspective of injectors, focusing on their perceptions of the market and reports of drug use therein. RESULTS: Injectors described a dynamic market in which the availability of drugs and proliferation of injection drug use have taken on growing importance in Kisumu. In addition to reports of white and brown forms of heroin and concerns about drug adulteration in the market, we unexpectedly documented widespread perceptions of cocaine availability and injection in Kisumu. Examining price data and socio-pharmacological experiences of cocaine injection left us with unconfirmed evidence of its existence, but opened further possibilities about how the chaos of new drug markets and diffusion of injection-related beliefs and practices may lend insight into the sociopolitical context of western Kenya. CONCLUSIONS: We suggest a need for expanded drug surveillance, education and programming responsive to local conditions, and further ethnographic inquiry into the social meanings of emergent drug markets in Kenya and across sub-Saharan Africa.

Do drug seizures predict drug-related emergency department presentations or arrests for drug use and possession?

BACKGROUND: Direct evidence of the effect of drug seizures on drug use and drug-related harm is fairly sparse. The aim of this study was to see whether seizures of heroin, cocaine and ATS predict the number of people arrested for use and possession of these drugs and the number overdosing on them. METHOD: We examined the effect of seizure frequency and seizure weight on arrests for drug use and possession and on the frequency of drug overdose with autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models. Granger causality tests were used to test for simultaneity. RESULTS: Over the short term (i.e. up to 4 months), increases in the intensity of high-level drug law enforcement (as measured by seizure weight and frequency) directed at ATS, cocaine and heroin did not appear to have any suppression effect on emergency department (ED) presentations relating to ATS, cocaine and heroin, or on arrests for use and/or possession of these drugs. A significant negative contemporaneous relationship was found between the heroin seizure weight and arrests for use and/or possession of heroin. However no evidence emerged of a contemporaneous or lagged relationship between heroin seizures and heroin ED presentations. CONCLUSION: The balance of evidence suggests that, in the Australian context, increases in the monthly seizure frequency and quantity of ATS, cocaine and heroin are signals of increased rather than reduced supply.

The politics of drug control in Nigeria: Exclusion, repression and obstacles to policy change.

BACKGROUND: International agencies have viewed West Africa as a major player in the global trade in cocaine and heroin and in efforts to control that trade, as there have been reports of escalating arrests of drug smugglers, large-scale drug seizures and 'narco-states' in the subregion. It is claimed that a substantial share of the drugs available in Western markets transit through West Africa today and are increasingly used there as well. Notwithstanding this growing alarm, there is little serious scholarship addressing the issue of drugs and drug policy in West Africa. METHODS: The article assesses and challenges some of the existing depictions of drugs and drug policy in West Africa through an empirical case study of drug control in Nigeria - one of West Africa's most notorious 'drug hubs' and recently hailed as a policy model by international experts. Based on previously inaccessible government documents, interviews with key officials in Nigeria, as well as ethnographic work at Nigeria's key drug agency, the article provides a unique insight into the politics of drug policy-making and implementation in West Africa. RESULTS: After describing the dominant official narratives of Nigeria's drug control, the article shows how the key political dynamics underlying drug policy remain obscured by these narratives. Nigerian drug policy has been characterised by a highly exclusive policy-making process, repression as the sole means of implementation and a strong bond with international drug agencies. This policy emerged in the 1980s and 1990s and has remained the unchallenged norm until today. The political processes underlying Nigerian drug policy also explain why policy reform has been and will be difficult to accomplish. CONCLUSION: These domestic political processes have largely been ignored in the existing depictions of drugs in West Africa, as they have mainly focused on externally driven drug threats and foreign policy responses. Most importantly, they have ignored the role played by the state. Rather than being too weak, the Nigerian state has shown a clear tendency towards repressive and coercive drug policy, which has received little popular support.

Identifying Demand Responses to Illegal Drug Supply Interdictions.

Successful supply-side interdictions into illegal drug markets are predicated on the responsiveness of drug prices to enforcement and the price elasticity of demand for addictive drugs. We present causal estimates that targeted interventions aimed at methamphetamine input markets ('precursor control') can temporarily increase retail street prices, but methamphetamine consumption is weakly responsive to higher drug prices. After the supply interventions, purity-adjusted prices increased then quickly returned to pre-treatment levels within 6-12 months, demonstrating the short-term effects of precursor control. The price elasticity of methamphetamine demand is -0.13 to -0.21 for self-admitted drug treatment admissions and between -0.24 and -0.28 for hospital inpatient admissions. We find some evidence of a positive cross-price effect for cocaine, but we do not find robust evidence that increases in methamphetamine prices increased heroin, alcohol, or marijuana drug use. This study can inform policy discussions regarding other synthesized drugs, including illicit use of pharmaceuticals. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Transnational cocaine and heroin flow networks in western Europe: A comparison.

BACKGROUND: A comparison of the properties of drug flow networks for cocaine and heroin in a group of 17 western European countries is provided with the aim of understanding the implications of their similarities and differences for drug policy. METHODS: Drug flow data for the cocaine and heroin networks were analyzed using the UCINET software package. Country-level characteristics including hub and authority scores, core and periphery membership, and centrality, and network-level characteristics including network density, the results of a triad census, and the final fitness of the core-periphery structure of the network, were computed and compared between the two networks. RESULTS: The cocaine network contains fewer path redundancies and a smaller, more tightly knit core than the heroin network. Authorities, hubs and countries central to the cocaine network tend to have higher hub, authority, and centrality scores than those in the heroin network. The core-periphery and hub-authority structures of the cocaine and heroin networks reflect the west-to-east and east-to-west patterns of flow of cocaine and heroin respectively across Europe. The key nodes in the cocaine and heroin networks are generally distinct from one another. CONCLUSION: The analysis of drug flow networks can reveal important structural features of trafficking networks that can be useful for the allocation of scarce drug control resources. The identification of authorities, hubs, network cores, and network-central nodes can suggest foci for the allocation of these resources. In the case of Europe, while some countries are important to both cocaine and heroin networks, different sets of countries occupy positions of prominence in the two networks. The distinct nature of the cocaine and heroin networks also suggests that a one-size-fits-all supply- and interdiction-focused policy may not work as well as an approach that takes into account the particular characteristics of each network.

US federal cocaine essential ('precursor') chemical regulation impacts on US cocaine availability: an intervention time-series analysis with temporal replication.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Research shows that essential/precursor chemical controls have had substantial impacts on US methamphetamine and heroin availability. This study examines whether US federal essential chemical regulations have impacted US cocaine seizure amount, price and purity-indicators of cocaine availability. DESIGN: Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA)-intervention time-series analysis was used to assess the impacts of four US regulations targeting cocaine manufacturing chemicals: potassium permanganate/selected solvents, implemented October 1989 sulfuric acid/hydrochloric acid, implemented October 1992; methyl isobutyl ketone, implemented May 1995; and sodium permanganate, implemented December 2006. Of these chemicals, potassium permanganate and sodium permanganate are the most critical to cocaine production. SETTING: Conterminous United States (January 1987-April 2011). MEASUREMENTS: Monthly time-series: purity-adjusted cocaine seizure amount (in gross weight seizures < 6000 grams), purity-adjusted price (all available seizures), and purity (all available seizures). DATA SOURCE: System to Retrieve Information from Drug Evidence. FINDINGS: The 1989 potassium permanganate/solvents regulation was associated with a seizure amount decrease (change in series level) of 28% (P < 0.05), a 36% increase in price (P < 0.05) and a 4% decrease in purity (P < 0.05). Availability recovered in 1-2 years. The 2006 potassium permanganate regulation was associated with a 22% seizure amount decrease (P < 0.05), 100% price increase (P < 0.05) and 35% purity decrease (P < 0.05). Following the 2006 regulation, essentially no recovery occurred to April 2011. The other two chemical regulations were associated with statistically significant but lesser declines in indicated availability. CONCLUSIONS: In the United States, essential chemical controls from 1989 to 2006 were associated with pronounced downturns in cocaine availability.

Supply-side harm reduction strategies: Bolivia's experiment with social control.

Harm reduction approaches to drug control have almost exclusively focussed on consumers in northern countries. This article supports recent analysis that indicates that such policies also hold relevance for producer countries by drawing on recent policy innovations in Bolivia. When Evo Morales, the president of the national coca grower confederation, was elected the country's first indigenous president in 2005, he promised to fundamentally change 25 years of the U.S.-funded "drug war" that had generated repeated human rights violations. The new policy, which implicitly incorporates harm reduction principles combined with respect for human rights, recognizes coca leaf's traditional use and cultural importance and relies on vigorous local organizations to implement a community-based programme called social control. Results to date indicate that Bolivia's social control experience has reduced violence in coca growing communities, ensured small farmers a subsistence income from coca and increased sovereignty, while making a modest contribution to containing expansion of coca cultivation. The programme has registered 50,000 farmers who are allowed to cultivate limited quantities of coca to supply traditional users and helped them gain secure title to their land. This registration is combined with satellite surveillance to guarantee that farmers do not exceed limits established by law. To date, the programme's reach is incomplete and coca is still diverted to the drug trade. Nonetheless, the approach may offer lessons for other drug producer countries, particularly where strong socio-political organizations are found in combination with closeknit communities holding shared cultural values.

Let it snow! Let it snow! Let it snow! Estimating cocaine production using a novel dataset based on reported seizures of laboratories in Colombia.

BACKGROUND: Data on the cocaine market appear inconsistent, as they tend to show declining prices vis-a-vis steady or increasing demand and a declining supply. This paper proposes an explanation for this trend by providing evidence of an under-estimation of the supply of cocaine. METHODS: We propose a conservative estimate of cocaine production in Colombia for 2008, using data based on all reported seizures from 328 laboratories made by the counteracting organisations operating within the Colombian territory. RESULTS: Our conservative estimate of 935 tons from the seized laboratories is at least twice the estimate declared in official statistics of 295-450 tons. We are careful to keep all variables to their minimum boundary values. Our methodology could prove to be a useful tool, especially if used in parallel with the standard tools. Moreover, its characteristics (affordability, ease of use and potential for worldwide adoption) make it a powerful instrument to counteract cocaine production.

The drugs industry and peasant self-defence in a Peruvian cocaine enclave.

This article gives a detailed account of the cocaine industry and the related violence in the Peruvian Upper Huallaga. It is argued that in this cocaine producing region violence increased during state-led forced eradication operations of the coca plants. Most of the violent incidents were closely related to the diminishing cocaine industry, but they were also related to the actions of the state security forces. Instead of receiving support from the state's security apparatus, the population mobilized its own forces to fight the violence. As will be argued, the causes of violence in this cocaine enclave are part of a dynamic interaction amongst many factors - an interaction that is influenced by the local context, a partial state vacuum, and the social utility and the economic advantages of violence. One needs to be aware that motivations of those who engage in the violent behaviour can change over time, as underlying power structures are influenced by changes in local conditions. The study covers an in-depth account of events taking place in the Upper Huallaga during the years 2003-2007. The research material was collected by several ethnographical fieldwork methods.