Modeling the effect of imported malaria on the elimination programme in KwaZulu-Natal province of South Africa.

Introduction: with imported malaria cases in a given population, the question arises as to what extent the local cases are a consequence of the imports or not. We perform a modeling analysis for a specific area, in a region aspiring for malaria-free status. Methods: data on malaria cases over ten years is subjected to a compartmental model which is assumed to be operating close to the equilibrium state. Two of the parameters of the model are fitted to the decadal data. The other parameters in the model are sourced from the literature. The model is utilized to simulate the malaria prevalence with or without imported cases. Results: in any given year the annual average of 460 imported cases, resulted in an end-of-year season malaria prevalence of 257 local active infectious cases, whereas without the imports the malaria prevalence at the end of the season would have been fewer than 10 active infectious cases. We calculate the numerical value of the basic reproduction number for the model, which reveals the extent to which the disease is being eliminated from the population or not. Conclusion: without the imported cases, over the ten seasons of malaria, 2008-2018, the KwaZulu-Natal province would have been malaria-free over at least the last 7 years of the decade indicated. This simple methodology works well even in situations where data is limited.

Notes from the Field: Increases in Imported Malaria Cases - Three Southern U.S. Border Jurisdictions, 2023.

Malaria is a severe and potentially fatal mosquitoborne disease caused by infection with Plasmodium spp. parasites. Although malaria is no longer endemic in the United States, imported infections are reported annually; the primary risk group has been U.S. residents traveling to areas where malaria is endemic (1). In 2023, sporadic locally acquired mosquito-transmitted malaria cases were reported in several U.S. states (2,3). This report describes increases in imported malaria cases in 2023 compared with 2022 in three public health jurisdictions along the U.S. southern border.

Autochthonous and imported giardiasis cases: An analysis of two decades of national surveillance data, Germany, 2002 to 2021.

BackgroundGiardia duodenalis is a major cause of gastroenteritis globally, and is the most common food- and waterborne parasitic infection in Europe.AimTo describe the epidemiology of reported acute giardiasis cases in Germany and compare demographic and clinical characteristics between imported and autochthonous cases.MethodsWe conducted a descriptive analysis of giardiasis cases that fulfilled the national case definition and were reported between January 2002 and December 2021. We defined an imported case as having at least one place of exposure abroad in the 3-25 days before symptom onset. We analysed case numbers and incidence by age, sex, month reported and geographic region, both overall and stratified by autochthonous and imported cases.ResultsFrom 2002 to 2021, 72,318 giardiasis cases were reported in Germany, corresponding to a mean annual incidence of 4.4 per 100,000 population. Annual incidence gradually decreased since 2013, declining sharply during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020-21. Of 69,345 cases reported between 2002 and 2019, 35% were imported. Incidence of autochthonous cases (overall yearly mean: 3.1/100,000) was highest in males and young children (< 5 years); imported cases were predominantly adults aged 20-39 years. We identified seasonal patterns for imported and autochthonous cases.ConclusionsGiardiasis in Germany is typically assumed to be imported. Our data, however, underline the importance of autochthonous giardiasis. Travel advice might reduce imported infections, but prevention strategies for autochthonous infections are less clear. Dietary, behavioural and environmental risk factors need to be further investigated to enhance infection prevention measures for autochthonous giardiasis.

Modeling the Regional Distribution of International Travelers in Spain to Estimate Imported Cases of Dengue and Malaria: Statistical Inference and Validation Study.

BACKGROUND: Understanding the patterns of disease importation through international travel is paramount for effective public health interventions and global disease surveillance. While global airline network data have been used to assist in outbreak prevention and effective preparedness, accurately estimating how these imported cases disseminate locally in receiving countries remains a challenge. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to describe and understand the regional distribution of imported cases of dengue and malaria upon arrival in Spain via air travel. METHODS: We have proposed a method to describe the regional distribution of imported cases of dengue and malaria based on the computation of the "travelers' index" from readily available socioeconomic data. We combined indicators representing the main drivers for international travel, including tourism, economy, and visits to friends and relatives, to measure the relative appeal of each region in the importing country for travelers. We validated the resulting estimates by comparing them with the reported cases of malaria and dengue in Spain from 2015 to 2019. We also assessed which motivation provided more accurate estimates for imported cases of both diseases. RESULTS: The estimates provided by the best fitted model showed high correlation with notified cases of malaria (0.94) and dengue (0.87), with economic motivation being the most relevant for imported cases of malaria and visits to friends and relatives being the most relevant for imported cases of dengue. CONCLUSIONS: Factual descriptions of the local movement of international travelers may substantially enhance the design of cost-effective prevention policies and control strategies, and essentially contribute to decision-support systems. Our approach contributes in this direction by providing a reliable estimate of the number of imported cases of nonendemic diseases, which could be generalized to other applications. Realistic risk assessments will be obtained by combining this regional predictor with the observed local distribution of vectors.

Modelling the spatial risk of malaria through probability distribution of Anopheles maculipennis s.l. and imported cases.

Malaria remains one of the most important infectious diseases globally due to its high incidence and mortality rates. The influx of infected cases from endemic to non-endemic malaria regions like Europe has resulted in a public health concern over sporadic local outbreaks. This is facilitated by the continued presence of competent Anopheles vectors in non-endemic countries.We modelled the potential distribution of the main malaria vector across Spain using the ensemble of eight modelling techniques based on environmental parameters and the Anopheles maculipennis s.l. presence/absence data collected from 2000 to 2020. We then combined this map with the number of imported malaria cases in each municipality to detect the geographic hot spots with a higher risk of local malaria transmission.The malaria vector occurred preferentially in irrigated lands characterized by warm climate conditions and moderate annual precipitation. Some areas surrounding irrigated lands in northern Spain (e.g. Zaragoza, Logroño), mainland areas (e.g. Madrid, Toledo) and in the South (e.g. Huelva), presented a significant likelihood of A. maculipennis s.l. occurrence, with a large overlap with the presence of imported cases of malaria.While the risk of malaria re-emergence in Spain is low, it is not evenly distributed throughout the country. The four recorded local cases of mosquito-borne transmission occurred in areas with a high overlap of imported cases and mosquito presence. Integrating mosquito distribution with human incidence cases provides an effective tool for the quantification of large-scale geographic variation in transmission risk and pinpointing priority areas for targeted surveillance and prevention.

Imported infectious diseases in migrants from Latin America: A retrospective study from a referral centre for tropical diseases in Spain, 2017-2022.

INTRODUCTION: Detecting imported diseases by migrants and individuals visiting friends and relatives (VFR) is key in the prevention and management of emergent infectious diseases acquired abroad. METHODS: Retrospective descriptive study on migrants and VFR from Central and South America between 2017 and 2022 attended at a National Referral Centre for Tropical Diseases in Madrid, Spain. Demographic characteristics, syndromes and confirmed travel-related diagnoses were obtained from hospital patient medical records. RESULTS: 1654 cases were registered, median age of 42 years, 69.1% were female, and 55.2% were migrants. Most cases came from Bolivia (49.6%), followed by Ecuador (12.9%). Health screening while asymptomatic (31.6%) was the main reason for consultation, followed by Chagas disease follow-up (31%). Of those asymptomatic at screening, 47,2% were finally diagnosed of any disease, mainly Chagas disease (19,7%) and strongyloidiasis (10,2%) CONCLUSION: Our study emphasizes the importance of proactive health screening to detect asymptomatic conditions in migrants and VFR, enabling timely intervention and improved health outcomes. By understanding the unique health profiles of immigrant populations, targeted public health interventions can be devised to safeguard the well-being of these vulnerable groups.

Infections diagnosed in children and young people screened for malaria in UK emergency departments: a retrospective multi-centre study.

BACKGROUND: Data on imported infections in children and young people (CYP) are sparse. AIMS: To describe imported infections in CYP arriving from malaria-endemic areas and presenting to UK emergency departments (ED) who were screened for malaria. METHODS: This is a retrospective, multi-centre, observational study nested in a diagnostic accuracy study for malaria rapid diagnostic tests. Any CYP < 16 years presenting to a participating ED with a history of fever and travel to a malaria-endemic area between 1 January 2016 and 31 December 2017 and who had a malaria screen as a part of standard care were included. Geographical risk was calculated for the most common tropical infections. RESULTS: Of the 1414 CYP screened for malaria, 44.0% (n = 622) arrived from South Asia and 33.3% (n = 471) from sub-Saharan Africa. Half (50.0%) had infections common in both tropical and non-tropical settings such as viral upper respiratory tract infection (URTI); 21.0% of infections were coded as tropical if gastro-enteritis is included, with a total of 4.2% (60) cases of malaria. CYP diagnosed with malaria were 7.44 times more likely to have arrived from sub-Saharan Africa than from South Asia (OR 7.44, 3.78-16.41). CONCLUSION: A fifth of CYP presenting to participating UK EDs with fever and a history of travel to a malaria-endemic area and who were screened for malaria had a tropical infection if diarrhoea is included. A third of CYP had no diagnosis. CYP arriving from sub-Saharan Africa had the greatest risk of malaria.Abbreviations: CYP: children and young people; ED: emergency department; PERUKI: Paediatric Emergency Research in the UK and Ireland; RDT: rapid diagnostic test; VFR: visiting friends and relatives.

Epidemiologic Trends and Distributions of Imported Infectious Diseases Among Travelers to Japan Before and During the COVID-19 Pandemic, 2016 to 2021: A Descriptive Study.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about the trends of imported infectious diseases among travelers to non-endemic countries during the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. This article aimed to describe those among travelers to Japan. METHODS: This is a descriptive study based on national surveillance data. Imported infectious disease cases were defined as those with a reported overseas source of infection among 15 diseases pre-selected based on the probability and impact of importation. The number of notified cases from April 2016 to March 2021 were described by disease and time of diagnosis. The relative ratio and absolute difference in case counts-both by number and per arrival-were calculated by disease comparing those from the pandemic period (April 2020-March 2021) to the pre-pandemic period (April 2016-March 2020). RESULTS: A total of 3,524 imported infectious disease cases were diagnosed during the study period, including 3,439 cases before and 85 cases during the pandemic. The proportionate distribution of diseases changed but notification counts of all 15 diseases decreased during the pandemic. Accounting for arrivals, however, seven diseases showed a two-fold or greater increase, with a notable absolute increase per million arrivals for amebiasis (60.1; 95% confidence interval [CI], 41.5-78.7), malaria (21.7; 95% CI, 10.5-33.0), and typhoid fever (9.3; 95% CI, 1.9-16.8). CONCLUSION: The epidemiology of imported infectious diseases changed during the pandemic. While the number of imported infectious disease cases decreased, the number of cases per arrivals increased considerably both in relative and absolute terms for several diseases of public health and clinical importance.

Potential applicability of the importation risk index for predicting the risk of rarely imported infectious diseases.

BACKGROUND: There have been many prediction studies for imported infectious diseases, employing air-travel volume or the importation risk (IR) index, which is the product of travel-volume and disease burden in the source countries, as major predictors. However, there is a lack of studies validating the predictability of the variables especially for infectious diseases that have rarely been reported. In this study, we analyzed the prediction performance of the IR index and air-travel volume to predict disease importation. METHODS: Rabies and African trypanosomiasis were used as target diseases. The list of rabies and African trypanosomiasis importation events, annual air-travel volume between two specific countries, and incidence of rabies and African trypanosomiasis in the source countries were obtained from various databases. RESULTS: Logistic regression analysis showed that IR index was significantly associated with rabies importation risk (p value < 0.001), but the association with African trypanosomiasis was not significant (p value = 0.923). The univariable logistic regression models showed reasonable prediction performance for rabies (area under curve for Receiver operating characteristic [AUC] = 0.734) but poor performance for African trypanosomiasis (AUC = 0.641). CONCLUSIONS: Our study found that the IR index cannot be generally applicable for predicting rare importation events. However, it showed the potential utility of the IR index by suggesting acceptable performance in rabies models. Further studies are recommended to explore the generalizability of the IR index's applicability and to propose disease-specific prediction models.

Risk of imported malaria infections in Zanzibar: a cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Zanzibar has made substantial progress in malaria control with vector control, improved diagnosis, and artemisinin-based combination therapy. Parasite prevalence in the population has remained around 1% but imported infections from mainland Tanzania contribute to sustained local transmission. Understanding travel patterns between mainland Tanzania and Zanzibar, and the risk of malaria infection, may help to control malaria importation to Zanzibar. METHODS: A rolling cross-sectional survey linked to routine reactive case detection of malaria was carried out in Zanzibar between May 2017 and October 2018. Households of patients diagnosed with malaria at health facilities were surveyed and household members were tested for malaria using rapid diagnostic tests and a sub-sample by quantitative PCR (qPCR). Interviews elicited a detailed travel history of all household members who had travelled within the past two months, including trips within and outside of Zanzibar. We estimated the association of malaria infection with travel destinations in pre-defined malaria endemicity categories, trip duration, and other co-variates using logistic regression. RESULTS: Of 17,891 survey participants, 1177 (7%) reported a recent trip, of which 769 (65%) visited mainland Tanzania. Among travellers to mainland Tanzania with travel destination details and a qPCR result available, 241/378 (64%) reported traveling to districts with a 'high' malaria endemicity and for 12% the highest endemicity category was 'moderate'. Travelers to the mainland were more likely to be infected with malaria parasites (29%, 108/378) than those traveling within Zanzibar (8%, 16/206) or to other countries (6%, 2/17). Among travellers to mainland Tanzania, those visiting highly endemic districts had a higher odds of being qPCR-positive than those who travelled only to districts where malaria-endemicity was classified as low or very low (adjusted odd ratio = 7.0, 95% confidence interval: 1.9-25.5). Among travellers to the mainland, 110/378 (29%) never or only sometimes used a mosquito net during their travel. CONCLUSIONS: Strategies to reduce malaria importation to Zanzibar may benefit from identifying population groups traveling to highly endemic areas in mainland Tanzania. Targeted interventions to prevent and clear infections in these groups may be more feasible than attempting to screen and treat all travellers upon arrival in Zanzibar.

The imported infections among foreign travelers in China: an observational study.

BACKGROUND: In the past few decades, globalization has rendered more frequent and intensive population movement between countries, which has changed the original disease spectrum and brought a huge health impact on the global population including China. This study aims to describe the spectrum and epidemiological characteristics of imported infections among foreign travelers travelling to China. METHODS: The data on imported infections among foreign travelers were obtained from Custom Inbound Screening System (CISS) and the National Notifiable Infectious Disease Reporting System (NNIDRS). All the infections were classified into respiratory, gastrointestinal, vector-borne, blood/sex-transmitted and mucocutaneous diseases, of which case numbers and incidences were calculated and the proportions were compared among subgroups. RESULTS: In total, 17,189 travelers diagnosed with 58 imported infectious diseases were reported from 2014 to 2018, with an overall incidence of 122.59 per million. Respiratory infection (7,351 cases, mainly influenza) and blood/sex-transmitted diseases (6,114 cases mainly Hepatitis B and HIV infection) were the most frequently diagnosed diseases, followed by vector-borne infections (3,128 cases, mainly dengue fever and malaria). The highest case number was from Asia and Europe, while the highest incidence rate was from Africa (296.00 per million). When specific diagnosis was compared, both the highest absolute case number and incidence were observed for influenza. An obvious seasonal pattern was observed for vector-borne diseases, with the annual epidemic spanning from July to November. The origin-destination matrices disclosed the movement of imported infection followed specific routes. CONCLUSIONS: Our study provided a profile of infectious diseases among foreign travelers travelling to China and pinpointed the target regions, seasons and populations for prevention and control, to attain an informed control of imported infections in China.

Integrated genomic surveillance enables tracing of person-to-person SARS-CoV-2 transmission chains during community transmission and reveals extensive onward transmission of travel-imported infections, Germany, June to July 2021.

BackgroundTracking person-to-person SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the population is important to understand the epidemiology of community transmission and may contribute to the containment of SARS-CoV-2. Neither contact tracing nor genomic surveillance alone, however, are typically sufficient to achieve this objective.AimWe demonstrate the successful application of the integrated genomic surveillance (IGS) system of the German city of Düsseldorf for tracing SARS-CoV-2 transmission chains in the population as well as detecting and investigating travel-associated SARS-CoV-2 infection clusters.MethodsGenomic surveillance, phylogenetic analysis, and structured case interviews were integrated to elucidate two genetically defined clusters of SARS-CoV-2 isolates detected by IGS in Düsseldorf in July 2021.ResultsCluster 1 (n = 67 Düsseldorf cases) and Cluster 2 (n = 36) were detected in a surveillance dataset of 518 high-quality SARS-CoV-2 genomes from Düsseldorf (53% of total cases, sampled mid-June to July 2021). Cluster 1 could be traced back to a complex pattern of transmission in nightlife venues following a putative importation by a SARS-CoV-2-infected return traveller (IP) in late June; 28 SARS-CoV-2 cases could be epidemiologically directly linked to IP. Supported by viral genome data from Spain, Cluster 2 was shown to represent multiple independent introduction events of a viral strain circulating in Catalonia and other European countries, followed by diffuse community transmission in Düsseldorf.ConclusionIGS enabled high-resolution tracing of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in an internationally connected city during community transmission and provided infection chain-level evidence of the downstream propagation of travel-imported SARS-CoV-2 cases.

Screening of imported malaria infection in asymptomatic migrants from Sub-Saharan Africa: A retrospective analysis of a 2010-2019 cohort.

BACKGROUND: Up to 40% of cases of imported malaria in Europe are diagnosed in recently arrived migrants, who generally exhibit asymptomatic or mild symptoms and show low parasitaemia (submicroscopic). The study describes the prevalence of malaria infection among asymptomatic Sub-Saharan African migrants (ASSAM) and compares asymptomatic malaria-infected (AMI) vs non-malaria infected patients. METHODS: An observational, comparative, retrospective study was carried out in ASSAM who underwent a medical examination, between 2010 and 2019 at the National Reference Unit for Tropical Diseases (NRU-Trop) in Madrid, Spain. Medical examination and systematic screening protocol for infectious diseases, including screening for malaria infection by Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) was performed. RESULTS: During the study period, 632 out of 1061 ASSAM were screened for malaria, median age: 24 years (IQR:1-5); median time from arrival to diagnosis: 2 months (IQR:1-5). P. falciparum was the most frequent species: 61 patients (67.8%). Compared to non-malaria infected, AMI subjects had: higher rate of co-infection with S. stercoralis (41.1%VS 22.9%;p < 0.001) and filariae (8.9% VS 2.4%;p = 0.006), lower erythrocyte corpuscular volume (83.6 VS 84.4;p = 0.008) and lower levels of cholesterol (151.0 VS 167.3;p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: We observed a high prevalence of AMI among ASSAM. This highlights the need to consider routing screening of migrants from endemic areas and to study if such screening could avoid the potential morbidities associated with chronic infection, reduce morbi-mortality of acute malaria and the risk of transmission in host communities.

[Epidemic status of imported malaria before and after malaria elimination in Jiaozuo City of Henan Province].

OBJECTIVE: To analyze and compare the epidemiological characteristics of imported malaria in Jiaozuo City before and after malaria elimination, so as to provide insights into the malaria surveillance during the post-elimination stage and prevention of re-establishment of imported malaria. METHODS: Data pertaining to the epidemic situation and individual investigation of malaria in Jiaozuo City before (from 2010 to 2016) and after malaria elimination (from 2017 to November, 2020) were captured from the National Notifiable Disease Reporting System and the Information System for Parasitic Diseases Control and Prevention of Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention and were analyzed statistically. RESULTS: A total of 74 imported malaria cases were reported in Jiaozuo City from 2010 to 2021. Imported cases were predominantly Plasmodium falciparum malaria cases in Jiaozuo City before and after malaria elimination, and there was no significant difference in the proportion of malaria parasite species (χ2 = 0.234, P > 0.05). The imported malaria cases was predominantly reported in Wuzhi County, and was identified in overseas male farmers and businessmen at ages of 20 to 59 years, while the greatest number of imported malaria cases was reported in June and December before and after malaria elimination. The imported malaria cases predominantly acquired malaria parasite infections in sub-Saharan African countries; however, the proportion of imported malaria cases returning from Southeast Asian counties increased after malaria elimination than before malaria elimination (χ2 = 5.989, P < 0.05). The longest duration from onset to definitive diagnosis of malaria reduced from 27 days before malaria elimination to 18 days after malaria elimination, and the median duration reduced from 3 days to 2 days, while the proportion of definitive diagnosis of malaria increased from 60.47% before malaria elimination to 83.87% after malaria elimination (χ2 = 4.724, P < 0.05). In addition, the proportion of malaria cases definitively diagnosed and reported by medical institutions increased after malaria elimination than before malaria elimination (χ2 = 5.406, P < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: The imported malaria patients were predominantly P. falciparum malaria cases in Jiaozuo City during 2010 to 2021, and the patient's medical care-seeking awareness and medical staff's diagnosis and treatment ability have improved after malaria elimination. It is necessary to strengthen and improve malaria surveillance and response system and prevent the re-establishment of overseas imported malaria.

Imported Infectious Diseases, Tropical Diseases and Local Endemic Infectious Diseases in Japan.

We aimed to describe the historical perspectives and the current epidemiology of tropical, imported and local endemic infectious diseases in Japan in this review. Public health legislation for infectious diseases and immigration statistics were overviewed to provide the background of the infectious disease situation in Japan. Many tropical diseases were successfully controlled and eliminated in the latter half of the 20th century and the majority of those diseases are imported today. The trend of the main 15 imported infectious diseases before the advent of COVID-19 was summarized as well as local endemic infectious diseases in Japan. Transmission risks of traditional cuisines, lifestyles and nature exposures in Japan are introduced to guide clinicians for travel advice to prevent those local infectious diseases.

Epidemiological characteristics of imported respiratory infectious diseases in China, 2014‒2018.

BACKGROUND: With the progress of globalization, international mobility increases, greatly facilitating cross-border transmission of respiratory infectious diseases (RIDs). This study aimed to analyze the epidemiological characteristics and factors influencing imported RIDs, with the goal of providing evidence to support adoption of high-tech, intelligent methods to early find imported RIDs and prevent their spread in China. METHODS: We obtained data of imported RIDs cases from 2014 to 2018 from the Inbound Sentinel Network of Customs and the National Notifiable Diseases Reporting System in China. We analyzed spatial, temporal, and population distribution characteristics of the imported RIDs. We developed an index to describe seasonality. Pearson correlation coefficients were used to examine associations between independent variables and imported cases. Data analyses and visualizations were conducted with R software. RESULTS: From a total of 1 409 265 253 inbound travelers, 31 732 (2.25/100 000) imported RIDs cases were reported. RIDs cases were imported from 142 countries and five continents. The incidence of imported RIDs was nearly 5 times higher in 2018 (2.81/100 000) than in 2014 (0.58/100 000). Among foreigners, incidence rates were higher among males (5.32/100 000), 0-14-year-olds (15.15/100 000), and cases originating in Oceania (11.10/100 000). The vast majority (90.3%) of imported RIDs were influenza, with seasonality consistent with annual seasonality of influenza. The spatial distribution of imported RIDs was different between Chinese citizens and foreigners. Increases in inbound travel volume and the number of influenza cases in source countries were associated with the number of imported RIDs. CONCLUSIONS: Our study documented importation of RIDs into China from 142 countries. Inbound travel poses a significant risks bringing important RIDs to China. It is urgent to strengthen surveillance at customs of inbound travelers and establish an intelligent surveillance and early warning system to prevent importation of RIDs to China for preventing further spread within China.

Genomic assessment of quarantine measures to prevent SARS-CoV-2 importation and transmission.

Mitigation of SARS-CoV-2 transmission from international travel is a priority. We evaluated the effectiveness of travellers being required to quarantine for 14-days on return to England in Summer 2020. We identified 4,207 travel-related SARS-CoV-2 cases and their contacts, and identified 827 associated SARS-CoV-2 genomes. Overall, quarantine was associated with a lower rate of contacts, and the impact of quarantine was greatest in the 16-20 age-group. 186 SARS-CoV-2 genomes were sufficiently unique to identify travel-related clusters. Fewer genomically-linked cases were observed for index cases who returned from countries with quarantine requirement compared to countries with no quarantine requirement. This difference was explained by fewer importation events per identified genome for these cases, as opposed to fewer onward contacts per case. Overall, our study demonstrates that a 14-day quarantine period reduces, but does not completely eliminate, the onward transmission of imported cases, mainly by dissuading travel to countries with a quarantine requirement.

The impact of re-opening the international border on COVID-19 hospitalisations in Australia: a modelling study.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the numbers of COVID-19-related hospitalisations in Australia after re-opening the international border. DESIGN: Population-level deterministic compartmental epidemic modelling of eight scenarios applying various assumptions regarding SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility (baseline R0 = 3.5 or 7.0), vaccine rollout speed (slow or fast), and scale of border re-opening (mean of 2500 or 13 000 overseas arrivals per day). SETTING: Simulation population size, age structure, and age-based contact rates based on recent estimates for the Australian population. We assumed that 80% vaccination coverage of people aged 16 years or more was reached in mid-October 2021 (fast rollout) or early January 2022 (slow rollout). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Numbers of people admitted to hospital with COVID-19, December 2021 - December 2022. RESULTS: In scenarios assuming a highly transmissible SARS-CoV-2 variant (R0  = 7.0), opening the international border on either scale was followed by surges in both infections and hospitalisations that would require public health measures beyond mask wearing and social distancing to avoid overwhelming the health system. Reducing the number of hospitalisations to manageable levels required several cycles of additional social and mobility restrictions. CONCLUSIONS: If highly transmissible SARS-CoV-2 variants are circulating locally or overseas, large and disruptive COVID-19 outbreaks will still be possible in Australia after 80% of people aged 16 years or more have been vaccinated. Continuing public health measures to restrict the spread of disease are likely to be necessary throughout 2022.