Your browser doesn't support javascript.
loading
Show: 20 | 50 | 100
Results 1 - 20 de 1.332
Filter
1.
Front Public Health ; 12: 1386495, 2024.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38827618

ABSTRACT

Introduction: Mitigating the spread of infectious diseases is of paramount concern for societal safety, necessitating the development of effective intervention measures. Epidemic simulation is widely used to evaluate the efficacy of such measures, but realistic simulation environments are crucial for meaningful insights. Despite the common use of contact-tracing data to construct realistic networks, they have inherent limitations. This study explores reconstructing simulation networks using link prediction methods as an alternative approach. Methods: The primary objective of this study is to assess the effectiveness of intervention measures on the reconstructed network, focusing on the 2015 MERS-CoV outbreak in South Korea. Contact-tracing data were acquired, and simulation networks were reconstructed using the graph autoencoder (GAE)-based link prediction method. A scale-free (SF) network was employed for comparison purposes. Epidemic simulations were conducted to evaluate three intervention strategies: Mass Quarantine (MQ), Isolation, and Isolation combined with Acquaintance Quarantine (AQ + Isolation). Results: Simulation results showed that AQ + Isolation was the most effective intervention on the GAE network, resulting in consistent epidemic curves due to high clustering coefficients. Conversely, MQ and AQ + Isolation were highly effective on the SF network, attributed to its low clustering coefficient and intervention sensitivity. Isolation alone exhibited reduced effectiveness. These findings emphasize the significant impact of network structure on intervention outcomes and suggest a potential overestimation of effectiveness in SF networks. Additionally, they highlight the complementary use of link prediction methods. Discussion: This innovative methodology provides inspiration for enhancing simulation environments in future endeavors. It also offers valuable insights for informing public health decision-making processes, emphasizing the importance of realistic simulation environments and the potential of link prediction methods.


Subject(s)
Contact Tracing , Coronavirus Infections , Disease Outbreaks , Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus , Humans , Republic of Korea/epidemiology , Coronavirus Infections/transmission , Coronavirus Infections/prevention & control , Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Contact Tracing/methods , Disease Outbreaks/prevention & control , Quarantine , Computer Simulation
2.
BMC Health Serv Res ; 24(1): 570, 2024 May 02.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38698401

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: HIV partner notification services can help people living with HIV (PLHIV) to identify, locate, and inform their sexual and injecting partners who are exposed to HIV and refer them for proper and timely counseling and testing. To what extent these services were used by PLHIV and what are the related barriers and facilitators in southeast Iran are not known. So, this study aimed to explore HIV notification and its barriers and facilitators among PLHIV in Iran. METHODS: In this qualitative study, the number of 23 participants were recruited from November 2022 to February 2023 including PLHIV (N = 12), sexual partners of PLHIV (N = 5), and staff members (N = 6) of a Voluntary Counseling and Testing (VCT) center in Kerman located in the southeast of Iran. Our data collection included purposive sampling to increase variation. The content analysis was conducted using the Graneheim and Lundman approach. The analysis yielded 221 (out of 322) related codes related to HIV notification, its barriers, and its facilitators. These codes were further categorized into one main category with three categories and nine sub-categories. RESULTS: The main category was HIV notification approaches, HIV notification barriers, and facilitators. HIV notification approaches were notification through clear, and direct conversation, notification through gradual preparation and reassurance, notification due to being with PLHIV, notification through suspicious talking of the physician, and notification due to the behavior of others. Also, the barriers were classified into individual, social, and environmental, and healthcare system barriers and the facilitators were at PLHIV, healthcare staff, and community levels. Stigma was a barrier mentioned by most participants. Also, the main facilitator of HIV notification was social support, especially from the family side. CONCLUSIONS: The findings highlighted the multidimensionality of HIV notification emphasizing the importance of tailored support and education to enhance the notification process for PLHIV and their networks. Also, our results show that despite all the efforts to reduce stigma and discrimination in recent years, stigma still exists as a main obstacle to disclosing HIV status and other barriers are the product of stigma. It seems that all programs should be directed towards destigmatization.


Subject(s)
Contact Tracing , HIV Infections , Qualitative Research , Humans , Iran/epidemiology , HIV Infections/epidemiology , HIV Infections/psychology , Male , Contact Tracing/methods , Female , Adult , Sexual Partners/psychology , Middle Aged , Social Stigma , Counseling
3.
J Health Popul Nutr ; 43(1): 58, 2024 May 09.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38725055

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has profoundly affected human social contact patterns, but there is limited understanding regarding the post-pandemic social contact patterns. Our objective is to quantitatively assess social contact patterns in Suzhou post-COVID-19. METHODS: We employed a diary design and conducted social contact surveys from June to October 2023, utilizing paper questionnaires. A generalized linear model was utilized to analyze the relationship between individual contacts and covariates. We examined the proportions of contact type, location, duration, and frequency. Additionally, age-related mixed matrices were established. RESULTS: The participants reported an average of 11.51 (SD 5.96) contact numbers and a total of 19.78 (SD 20.94) contact numbers per day, respectively. The number of contacts was significantly associated with age, household size, and the type of week. Compared to the 0-9 age group, those in the 10-19 age group reported a higher number of contacts (IRR = 1.12, CI: 1.01-1.24), while participants aged 20 and older reported fewer (IRR range: 0.54-0.67). Larger households (5 or more) reported more contacts (IRR = 1.09, CI: 1.01-1.18) and fewer contacts were reported on weekends (IRR = 0.95, CI: 0.90-0.99). School had the highest proportion of contact durations exceeding 4 h (49.5%) and daily frequencies (90.4%), followed by home and workplace. The contact patterns exhibited clear age-assortative mixing, with Q indices of 0.27 and 0.28. CONCLUSIONS: We assessed the characteristics of social contact patterns in Suzhou, which are essential for parameterizing models of infectious disease transmission. The high frequency and intensity of contacts among school-aged children should be given special attention, making school intervention policies a crucial component in controlling infectious disease transmission.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Humans , COVID-19/transmission , COVID-19/epidemiology , China/epidemiology , Female , Male , Adult , Adolescent , Child , Young Adult , Child, Preschool , Middle Aged , Infant , Contact Tracing/methods , Surveys and Questionnaires , SARS-CoV-2 , Infant, Newborn , Family Characteristics , Pandemics , Aged , Communicable Diseases/transmission , Communicable Diseases/epidemiology
4.
BMC Infect Dis ; 24(1): 469, 2024 May 03.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38702610

ABSTRACT

South Korea's remarkable success in controlling the spread of COVID-19 during the pre-Omicron period was based on extensive contact tracing and large-scale testing. Here we suggest a general criterion for tracing and testing based on South Korea's experience, and propose a new framework to assess tracing and testing. We reviewed papers on South Korea's response to COVID-19 to capture its concept of tracing and testing. South Korea expanded its testing capabilities to enable group tracing combined with preemptive testing, and to conduct open testing. According to our proposed model, COVID-19 cases are classified into 4 types: confirmed in quarantine, source known, source unknown, and unidentified. The proportion of the first two case types among confirmed cases is defined as "traced proportion", and used as the indicator of tracing and testing effectiveness. In conclusion, South Korea successfully suppressed COVID-19 transmission by maintaining a high traced proportion (> 60%) using group tracing in conjunction with preemptive testing as a complementary strategy to traditional contact tracing.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 Testing , COVID-19 , Contact Tracing , SARS-CoV-2 , Republic of Korea/epidemiology , COVID-19/diagnosis , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/prevention & control , COVID-19/transmission , Humans , Contact Tracing/methods , COVID-19 Testing/methods , SARS-CoV-2/isolation & purification , Quarantine
5.
Sci Eng Ethics ; 30(3): 19, 2024 May 15.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38748085

ABSTRACT

This study investigated people's ethical concerns of surveillance technology. By adopting the spectrum of technological utopian and dystopian narratives, how people perceive a society constructed through the compulsory use of surveillance technology was explored. This study empirically examined the anonymous online expression of attitudes toward the society-wide, compulsory adoption of a contact tracing app that affected almost every aspect of all people's everyday lives at a societal level. By applying the structural topic modeling approach to analyze comments on four Hong Kong anonymous discussion forums, topics concerning the technological utopian, dystopian, and pragmatic views on the surveillance app were discovered. The findings showed that people with a technological utopian view on this app believed that the implementation of compulsory app use can facilitate social good and maintain social order. In contrast, individuals who had a technological dystopian view expressed privacy concerns and distrust of this surveillance technology. Techno-pragmatists took a balanced approach and evaluated its implementation practically.


Subject(s)
Attitude , Mobile Applications , Privacy , Humans , Hong Kong , Contact Tracing/ethics , Contact Tracing/methods , Trust , Confidentiality , Technology/ethics , Internet , Female , Male , Adult , Narration
6.
Sci Rep ; 14(1): 11696, 2024 05 22.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38777814

ABSTRACT

Epidemic modeling is essential in understanding the spread of infectious diseases like COVID-19 and devising effective intervention strategies to control them. Recently, network-based disease models have integrated traditional compartment-based modeling with real-world contact graphs and shown promising results. However, in an ongoing epidemic, future contact network patterns are not observed yet. To address this, we use aggregated static networks to approximate future contacts for disease modeling. The standard method in the literature concatenates all edges from a dynamic graph into one collapsed graph, called the full static graph. However, the full static graph often leads to severe overestimation of key epidemic characteristics. Therefore, we propose two novel static network approximation methods, DegMST and EdgeMST, designed to preserve the sparsity of real world contact network while remaining connected. DegMST and EdgeMST use the frequency of temporal edges and the node degrees respectively to preserve sparsity. Our analysis show that our models more closely resemble the network characteristics of the dynamic graph compared to the full static ones. Moreover, our analysis on seven real-world contact networks suggests EdgeMST yield more accurate estimations of disease dynamics for epidemic forecasting when compared to the standard full static method.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Epidemics , Forecasting , Humans , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/transmission , COVID-19/prevention & control , Forecasting/methods , SARS-CoV-2/isolation & purification , Contact Tracing/methods , Algorithms , Epidemiological Models
7.
Emerg Infect Dis ; 30(6): 1115-1124, 2024 Jun.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38781680

ABSTRACT

The World Health Organization's end TB strategy promotes the use of symptom and chest radiograph screening for tuberculosis (TB) disease. However, asymptomatic early states of TB beyond latent TB infection and active disease can go unrecognized using current screening criteria. We conducted a longitudinal cohort study enrolling household contacts initially free of TB disease and followed them for the occurrence of incident TB over 1 year. Among 1,747 screened contacts, 27 (52%) of the 52 persons in whom TB subsequently developed during follow-up had a baseline abnormal radiograph. Of contacts without TB symptoms, persons with an abnormal radiograph were at higher risk for subsequent TB than persons with an unremarkable radiograph (adjusted hazard ratio 15.62 [95% CI 7.74-31.54]). In young adults, we found a strong linear relationship between radiograph severity and time to TB diagnosis. Our findings suggest chest radiograph screening can extend to detecting early TB states, thereby enabling timely intervention.


Subject(s)
Family Characteristics , Mass Screening , Radiography, Thoracic , Humans , Peru/epidemiology , Male , Female , Adult , Adolescent , Young Adult , Mass Screening/methods , Longitudinal Studies , Middle Aged , Child , Tuberculosis, Pulmonary/epidemiology , Tuberculosis, Pulmonary/diagnosis , Tuberculosis, Pulmonary/diagnostic imaging , Contact Tracing/methods , Child, Preschool , Latent Tuberculosis/diagnosis , Latent Tuberculosis/epidemiology , Latent Tuberculosis/diagnostic imaging , Infant , Tuberculosis/epidemiology , Tuberculosis/diagnosis , Tuberculosis/diagnostic imaging
8.
Sex Transm Infect ; 100(4): 242-250, 2024 May 31.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38754986

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Partner notification (PN) is key to the control of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Digital interventions have been used to facilitate PN. A scoping review was conducted to describe the interventions used, user preferences and acceptability of digital PN interventions from patient and partner perspectives. METHODS: A systematic literature search was conducted of eight databases for articles published in English, available online with digital PN outcome data. Articles were assessed using the Mixed Methods Appraisal Tool. Quantitative and qualitative data were synthesised and analysed using thematic analysis. RESULTS: Twenty-six articles met the eligibility criteria. Articles were heterogeneous in quality and design, with the majority using quantitative methods. Nine articles focused solely on bacterial STIs (five on syphilis; four on chlamydia), one on HIV, two on syphilis and HIV, and 14 included multiple STIs, of which 13 included HIV. There has been a shift over time from digital PN interventions solely focusing on notifying partners, to interventions including elements of partner management, such as facilitation of partner testing and treatment, or sharing of STI test results (between index patients and tested sex partners). Main outcomes measured were number of partners notified (13 articles), partner testing/consultation (eight articles) and treatment (five articles). Relationship type and STI type appeared to affect digital PN preferences for index patients with digital methods preferred for casual rather than established partner types. Generally, partners preferred face-to-face PN. CONCLUSION: Digital PN to date mainly focuses on notifying partners rather than comprehensive partner management. Despite an overall preference for face-to-face PN with partners, digital PN could play a useful role in improving outcomes for certain partner types and infections. Further research needs to understand the impact of digital PN interventions on specific PN outcomes, their effectiveness for different infections and include health economic evaluations.


Subject(s)
Contact Tracing , HIV Infections , Sexual Partners , Sexually Transmitted Diseases , Humans , Contact Tracing/methods , Sexually Transmitted Diseases/prevention & control , HIV Infections/prevention & control , Female , Male , Syphilis/prevention & control
9.
BMC Health Serv Res ; 24(1): 606, 2024 May 09.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38720312

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Assisted index case testing (ICT), in which health care workers take an active role in referring at-risk contacts of people living with HIV for HIV testing services, has been widely recognized as an evidence-based intervention with high potential to increase status awareness in people living with HIV. While the available evidence from eastern and southern Africa suggests that assisted ICT can be an effective, efficient, cost-effective, acceptable, and low-risk strategy to implement in the region, it reveals that feasibility barriers to implementation exist. This study aims to inform the design of implementation strategies to mitigate these feasibility barriers by examining "assisting" health care workers' experiences of how barriers manifest throughout the assisted ICT process, as well as their perceptions of potential opportunities to facilitate feasibility. METHODS: In-depth interviews were conducted with 26 lay health care workers delivering assisted ICT in Malawian health facilities. Interviews explored health care workers' experiences counseling index clients and tracing these clients' contacts, aiming to inform development of a blended learning implementation package. Transcripts were inductively analyzed using Dedoose coding software to identify and describe key factors influencing feasibility of assisted ICT. Analysis included multiple rounds of coding and iteration with the data collection team. RESULTS: Participants reported a variety of barriers to feasibility of assisted index case testing implementation, including sensitivities around discussing ICT with clients, privacy concerns, limited time for assisted index case testing amid high workloads, poor quality contact information, and logistical obstacles to tracing. Participants also reported several health care worker characteristics that facilitate feasibility (knowledge, interpersonal skills, non-stigmatizing attitudes and behaviors, and a sense of purpose), as well as identified process improvements with the potential to mitigate barriers. CONCLUSIONS: Maximizing assisted ICT's potential to increase status awareness in people living with HIV requires equipping health care workers with effective training and support to address and overcome the many feasibility barriers that they face in implementation. Findings demonstrate the need for, as well as inform the development of, implementation strategies to mitigate barriers and promote facilitators to feasibility of assisted ICT. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT05343390. Date of registration: April 25, 2022.


Subject(s)
Feasibility Studies , HIV Infections , Qualitative Research , Humans , Malawi , HIV Infections/diagnosis , Female , Male , Adult , Interviews as Topic , HIV Testing/methods , Contact Tracing/methods , Community Health Workers
10.
Bull World Health Organ ; 102(6): 400-409, 2024 Jun 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38812802

ABSTRACT

Objective: To assess the effectiveness of a community-based tuberculosis and leprosy intervention in which village health teams and health workers conduct door-to-door tuberculosis screening, targeted screenings and contact tracing. Methods: We conducted a before-and-after implementation study in Uganda to assess the effectiveness of the community tuberculosis intervention by looking at reach, outputs, adoption and effectiveness of the intervention. Campaign 1 was conducted in March 2022 and campaign 2 in September 2022. We calculated percentages of targets achieved and compared case notification rates during the intervention with corresponding quarters in the previous year. We also assessed the leprosy screening. Findings: Over 5 days, campaign 1 screened 1 289 213 people (2.9% of the general population), of whom 179 144 (13.9%) fulfilled the presumptive tuberculosis criteria, and 4043 (2.3%) were diagnosed with bacteriologically-confirmed tuberculosis; 3710 (91.8%) individuals were linked to care. In campaign 2, 5 134 056 people (11.6% of the general population) were screened, detecting 428 444 (8.3%) presumptive tuberculosis patients and 8121 (1.9%) bacteriologically-confirmed tuberculosis patients; 5942 individuals (87.1%) were linked to care. The case notification rate increased from 48.1 to 59.5 per 100 000 population in campaign 1, with a case notification rate ratio of 1.24 (95% confidence interval, CI: 1.22-1.26). In campaign 2, the case notification rate increased from 45.0 to 71.6 per 100 000 population, with a case notification rate ratio of 1.59 (95% CI: 1.56-1.62). Of the 176 patients identified with leprosy, 137 (77.8%) initiated treatment. Conclusion: This community tuberculosis screening initiative is effective. However, continuous monitoring and adaptations are needed to overcome context-specific implementation challenges.


Subject(s)
Mass Screening , Tuberculosis , Humans , Uganda/epidemiology , Mass Screening/methods , Tuberculosis/diagnosis , Tuberculosis/epidemiology , Adult , Female , Male , Adolescent , Contact Tracing/methods , Middle Aged , Leprosy/diagnosis , Leprosy/epidemiology , Young Adult , Community Health Services/organization & administration , Child , Child, Preschool
11.
PLoS One ; 19(4): e0301669, 2024.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38662681

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: The traditional approach to epidemic control has been to slow down the rate of infection while building up healthcare capacity, resulting in a flattened epidemic curve. Advancements in bio-information-communication technology (BICT) have enabled the preemptive isolation of infected cases through efficient testing and contact tracing. This study aimed to conceptualize the BICT-enabled epidemic control (BICTEC) and to document its relationships with epidemic curve shaping and epidemic mitigation performance. METHODS: Daily COVID-19 incidences were collected from outbreak to Aug. 12, 2020, for nine countries reporting the first outbreak on or before Feb. 1, 2020. Key epidemic curve determinants-peak height (PH), time to peak (TTP), and area under the curve (AUC)-were estimated for each country, and their relationships were analyzed to test if epidemic curves peak quickly at a shorter height. CFR (Case Fatality Rate) and CI (Cumulative Incidence) were compared across the countries to identify relationships between epidemic curve shapes and epidemic mitigation performance. RESULTS: China and South Korea had the quickest TTPs (40.70 and 45.37 days since outbreak, respectively) and the shortest PHs (2.95 and 4.65 cases per day, respectively). Sweden, known for its laissez-faire approach, had the longest TTP (120.36) and the highest PH (279.74). Quicker TTPs were correlated with shorter PHs (ρ = 0·896, p = 0·0026) and lower AUCs (0.790, p = 0.0028), indicating that epidemic curves do not follow a flattened trajectory. During the study period, countries with quicker TTPs tended to have lower CIs (ρ = .855, P = .006) and CFRs (ρ = 0.684, P = .061). For example, South Korea, with the second-quickest TTP, reported the second lowest CI and the lowest CFR. CONCLUSIONS: Countries that experienced early COVID-19 outbreaks demonstrated the epidemic curves that quickly peak at a shorter height, indicating a departure from the traditional flattened trajectory. South Korea's BICTEC was found to be at least as effective as most lockdowns in reducing CI and CFR.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/prevention & control , Humans , SARS-CoV-2/isolation & purification , Disease Outbreaks , China/epidemiology , Republic of Korea/epidemiology , Contact Tracing/methods , Incidence , Epidemics/prevention & control
12.
Epidemiol Infect ; 152: e66, 2024 Apr 17.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38629265

ABSTRACT

This study aimed to understand the population and contact tracer uptake of the quick response (QR)-code-based function of the New Zealand COVID Tracer App (NZCTA) used for digital contact tracing (DCT). We used a retrospective cohort of all COVID-19 cases between August 2020 and February 2022. Cases of Asian and other ethnicities were 2.6 times (adjusted relative risk (aRR) 2.58, 99 per cent confidence interval (95% CI) 2.18, 3.05) and 1.8 times (aRR 1.81, 95% CI 1.58, 2.06) more likely than Maori cases to generate a token during the Delta period, and this persisted during the Omicron period. Contact tracing organization also influenced location token generation with cases handled by National Case Investigation Service (NCIS) staff being 2.03 (95% CI 1.79, 2.30) times more likely to generate a token than cases managed by clinical staff at local Public Health Units (PHUs). Public uptake and participation in the location-based system independent of contact tracer uptake were estimated at 45%. The positive predictive value (PPV) of the QR code system was estimated to be close to nil for detecting close contacts but close to 100% for detecting casual contacts. Our paper shows that the QR-code-based function of the NZCTA likely made a negligible impact on the COVID-19 response in New Zealand (NZ) in relation to isolating potential close contacts of cases but likely was effective at identifying and notifying casual contacts.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Contact Tracing , Mobile Applications , Contact Tracing/methods , Humans , COVID-19/epidemiology , New Zealand/epidemiology , Retrospective Studies , SARS-CoV-2 , Male , Female , Adult , Middle Aged , Aged
13.
Health Policy ; 144: 105073, 2024 Jun.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38657315

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Digital contact tracing (DCT) aims to improve time-to-isolation (timeliness) and find more potentially exposed individuals (sensitivity) to enhance the utility of contact tracing. The aim of this study was to evaluate the public uptake of a DCT self-service survey and its integration with the Bluetooth exposure notification system within the New Zealand Covid Tracer App (NZCTA). METHODS: We adopted a retrospective cohort study design using community COVID-19 cases from February 2022 to August 2022 in New Zealand (1.2 million cases). We examined the proportion of cases completing a self-service survey and the time to complete the survey by age, sex and ethnicity. RESULTS: Overall, 66 % of cases completed their self-service survey. Completion was influenced by age, sex and ethnicity. The median completion time was 1.8 h (IQR 0.2, 17.2), with 95 % of those completing this survey doing so within 48 h of case identification. Around 13 % of all survey completers also uploaded their Bluetooth data, which resulted in an average of 663 cases per day notifying 4.5 contacts per case. CONCLUSION: The combination of high public uptake and rapid response times suggest self-service DCT could be a useful tool for future outbreaks, particularly if implemented in conjunction with manual processes and other DCT tools (e.g. Bluetooth) to address issues related to performance (sensitivity, timeliness), effectiveness, and health equity.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Contact Tracing , Humans , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/prevention & control , Contact Tracing/methods , New Zealand , Female , Male , Retrospective Studies , Adult , Middle Aged , Aged , Adolescent , Mobile Applications , SARS-CoV-2 , Young Adult , Child , Child, Preschool , Surveys and Questionnaires , Infant
14.
Public Health Genomics ; 27(1): 68-73, 2024.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38508152

ABSTRACT

One of the primary public health functions of a tuberculosis (TB) program is to arrest the spread of infection. Traditionally, TB programs have relied on epidemiological information, gathered through contact tracing, to infer that transmission has occurred between people. The ability of drawing such inferences is extensively context dependent. Where epidemiological information has been strong, such as 2 cases of TB occurring sequentially within a single household, confidence in such inferences is high; conversely, public health authorities have been less certain about the significance of TB cases merely occurring in the same wider social group or geographic area. Many current laboratory tests for TB used globally may be sufficient to confirm a diagnosis and guide appropriate therapy but still be insufficiently precise for distinguishing two strains reliably. In short, drawing inferences regarding a chain of transmissions has always been as much art as science.


Subject(s)
Tuberculosis , Whole Genome Sequencing , Humans , Tuberculosis/epidemiology , Tuberculosis/diagnosis , Tuberculosis/transmission , Tuberculosis/genetics , Whole Genome Sequencing/methods , Mycobacterium tuberculosis/genetics , Mycobacterium tuberculosis/isolation & purification , Contact Tracing/methods , Public Health/methods , Narration
15.
Epidemiol Infect ; 152: e45, 2024 Mar 11.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38465380

ABSTRACT

Tuberculosis (TB) contact tracing and TB preventive treatment are key tools in preventing the transmission of TB with the aim of eliminating the disease. Our study seeks to demonstrate how the infection spread from an individual patient to the entire community and how proactive contact tracing facilitated prompt diagnosis and treatment. Our work was conducted as a retrospective analysis of the spread of TB infection within the Roma community in the Czech Republic, following the case of an index patient who succumbed to pulmonary TB. Several levels of care and preventive and treatment measures are outlined. Confirming the identity of the Mycobacterium tuberculosis strain was achieved using molecular methods. Among the 39 individuals examined, TB disease was detected in eight patients and TB infection was detected in six patients. The investigation of contacts within this group yielded positive results in 36% of cases, necessitating treatment. The study's findings provide evidence that actively tracing individuals at risk can lead to early detection of cases, prompt treatment, and prevention of further disease transmission. The study also indicates that the highest risk of infection occurs within the sick person's household and that young children under the age of 5 are most susceptible to falling ill.


Subject(s)
Latent Tuberculosis , Roma , Tuberculosis, Pulmonary , Tuberculosis , Child, Preschool , Humans , Contact Tracing/methods , Czech Republic/epidemiology , Retrospective Studies , Tuberculosis/diagnosis , Tuberculosis/epidemiology , Tuberculosis, Pulmonary/epidemiology
16.
PLoS One ; 19(3): e0271848, 2024.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38466677

ABSTRACT

Isolating COVID-19 cases and quarantining their close contacts can prevent COVID-19 transmissions but also inflict harm. We analysed isolation and quarantine orders by the local public health agency in Berlin-Reinickendorf (Germany) and their dependence on the recommendations by the Robert Koch Institute, the national public health institute. Between 3 March 2020 and 18 December 2021 the local public health agency ordered 24 603 isolations (9.2 per 100 inhabitants) and 45 014 quarantines (17 per 100 inhabitants) in a population of 266 123. The mean contacts per case was 1.9. More days of quarantine per 100 inhabitants were ordered for children than for adults: 4.1 for children aged 0-6, 5.2 for children aged 7-17, 0.9 for adults aged 18-64 and 0.3 for senior citizens aged 65-110. The mean duration for isolation orders was 10.2 and for quarantine orders 8.2 days. We calculated a delay of 4 days between contact and quarantine order. 3484 contact persons were in quarantine when they developed an infection. This represents 8% of all individuals in quarantine and 14% of those in isolation. Our study quantifies isolation and quarantine orders, shows that children had been ordered to quarantine more than adults and that there were fewer school days lost to isolation or quarantine as compared to school closures. Our results indicate that the recommendations of the Robert Koch Institute had an influence on isolation and quarantine duration as well as contact identification and that the local public health agency was not able to provide rigorous contact tracing, as the mean number of contacts was lower than the mean number of contacts per person known from literature. Additionally, a considerable portion of the population underwent isolation or quarantine, with a notable number of cases emerging during the quarantine period.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Adult , Child , Humans , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/prevention & control , Quarantine , Berlin , SARS-CoV-2 , Contact Tracing/methods , Germany/epidemiology
17.
PLoS One ; 19(3): e0296810, 2024.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38483886

ABSTRACT

Contact matrices are a commonly adopted data representation, used to develop compartmental models for epidemic spreading, accounting for the contact heterogeneities across age groups. Their estimation, however, is generally time and effort consuming and model-driven strategies to quantify the contacts are often needed. In this article we focus on household contact matrices, describing the contacts among the members of a family and develop a parametric model to describe them. This model combines demographic and easily quantifiable survey-based data and is tested on high resolution proximity data collected in two sites in South Africa. Given its simplicity and interpretability, we expect our method to be easily applied to other contexts as well and we identify relevant questions that need to be addressed during the data collection procedure.


Subject(s)
Epidemics , Metadata , Surveys and Questionnaires , Epidemiological Models , South Africa , Contact Tracing/methods
18.
PLoS One ; 19(3): e0296740, 2024.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38483954

ABSTRACT

Estimation of contact patterns is often based on questionnaires and time-use data. The results obtained using these methods have been used extensively over the years and recently to predict the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. They have also been used to test the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical measures such as social distance. The latter is integrated into epidemiological models by multiplying contact matrices by control functions. We present a novel method that allows the integration of social distancing and other scenarios such as panic. Our method is based on a modified social force model. The model is calibrated using data relating to the movements of individuals and their interactions such as desired walking velocities and interpersonal distances as well as demographic data. We used the framework to assess contact patterns in different social contexts in Morocco. The estimated matrices are extremely assortative and exhibit patterns similar to those observed in other studies including the POLYMOD project. Our findings suggest social distancing would reduce the numbers of contacts by 95%. Further, we estimated the effect of panic on contact patterns, which indicated an increase in the number of contacts of 11%. This approach could be an alternative to questionnaire-based methods in the study of non-pharmaceutical measures and other specific scenarios such as rush hours. It also provides a substitute for estimating children's contact patterns which are typically assessed through parental proxy reporting in surveys.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Pandemics , Child , Humans , Pandemics/prevention & control , Contact Tracing/methods , Morocco , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/prevention & control , Physical Distancing
19.
J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr ; 95(5): 431-438, 2024 Apr 15.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38489492

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: People living with HIV are considered at higher risk of developing severe forms of tuberculosis (TB) disease. Providing HIV testing to TB-exposed people is therefore critical. We present the results of integrating HIV testing into a community-based intervention for household TB contact management in Cameroon and Uganda. METHODS: Trained community health workers visited the households of index patients with TB identified in 3 urban/semiurban and 6 rural districts or subdistricts as part of a cluster-randomized trial and provided TB screening to all household contacts. Voluntary HIV counseling and testing were offered to contacts aged 5 years or older with unknown HIV status. We describe the cascade of care for HIV testing and the factors associated with the acceptance of HIV testing. RESULTS: Overall, 1983 household contacts aged 5 years or older were screened for TB. Of these contacts, 1652 (83.3%) did not know their HIV status, 1457 (88.2%) accepted HIV testing, and 1439 (98.8%) received testing. HIV testing acceptance was lower among adults than children [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 0.35, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.22 to 0.55], those living in household of an HIV-positive vs HIV-negative index case (aOR = 0.56, 95% CI: 0.38 to 0.83), and contacts requiring a reassessment visit after the initial TB screening visit vs asymptomatic contacts (aOR = 0.20, 95% CI: 0.06 to 0.67) and was higher if living in Uganda vs Cameroon (aOR = 4.54, 95% CI: 1.17 to 17.62) or if another contact of the same index case was tested for HIV (aOR = 9.22, 95% CI: 5.25 to 16.18). CONCLUSION: HIV testing can be integrated into community-based household TB contact screening and is well-accepted.


Subject(s)
HIV Infections , Tuberculosis , Adult , Child , Humans , Uganda/epidemiology , Cameroon/epidemiology , HIV Infections/diagnosis , HIV Infections/epidemiology , HIV Infections/complications , Tuberculosis/diagnosis , Tuberculosis/epidemiology , Tuberculosis/prevention & control , Mass Screening/methods , HIV Testing , Contact Tracing/methods
20.
Phys Rev E ; 109(2-1): 024303, 2024 Feb.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38491705

ABSTRACT

Contact tracing, the practice of isolating individuals who have been in contact with infected individuals, is an effective and practical way of containing disease spread. Here we show that this strategy is particularly effective in the presence of social groups: Once the disease enters a group, contact tracing not only cuts direct infection paths but can also pre-emptively quarantine group members such that it will cut indirect spreading routes. We show these results by using a deliberately stylized model that allows us to isolate the effect of contact tracing within the clique structure of the network where the contagion is spreading. This will enable us to derive mean-field approximations and epidemic thresholds to demonstrate the efficiency of contact tracing in social networks with small groups. This analysis shows that contact tracing in networks with groups is more efficient the larger the groups are. We show how these results can be understood by approximating the combination of disease spreading and contact tracing with a complex contagion process where every failed infection attempt will lead to a lower infection probability in the following attempts. Our results illustrate how contact tracing in real-world settings can be more efficient than predicted by models that treat the system as fully mixed or the network structure as locally treelike.


Subject(s)
Contact Tracing , Epidemics , Humans , Contact Tracing/methods , Quarantine , Epidemics/prevention & control , Social Networking
SELECTION OF CITATIONS
SEARCH DETAIL
...