Strategies to accelerate the elimination of cervical cancer in British Columbia, Canada: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: To eliminate cervical cancer in Canada by 2040, defined as an annual age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) lower than 4.0 per 100 000 women, the Canadian Partnership Against Cancer (CPAC) identified 3 priorities for action: increasing human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine coverage, implementing HPV-based screening and increasing screening participation, and improving follow-up after abnormal screen results. Our objective was to explore the impact of these priorities on the projected time to elimination of cervical cancer in British Columbia. METHODS: We used OncoSim-Cervical, a microsimulation model led and supported by CPAC and developed by Statistics Canada that simulates HPV transmission and the natural history of cervical cancer for the Canadian population. We updated model parameters to reflect BC's historical participation rates and program design. We simulated the transition to HPV-based screening and developed scenarios to explore the additional impact of achieving 90% vaccination coverage, 95% screening recruitment, 90% ontime screening, and 95% follow-up compliance. We projected cervical cancer incidence, ASIR, and year of elimination for the population of BC for 2023-2050. RESULTS: HPV-based screening at current vaccination, participation, and follow-up rates can eliminate cervical cancer by 2034. Increasing on-time screening and follow-up compliance could achieve this target by 2031. Increasing vaccination coverage has a small impact over this time horizon. INTERPRETATION: With the implementation of HPV-based screening, cervical cancer can be eliminated in BC before 2040. Efforts to increase screening participation and follow-up through this transition could potentially accelerate this timeline, but the transition from cytology- to HPV-based screening is fundamental to achieving this goal.

[Malaria vaccines: a new tool for elimination?] / Vaccins contre le paludisme : un nouvel outil pour l'élimination ?

A malaria vaccine represents an essential complementary tool to curb the stagnation, or even increase, in malaria cases observed over the last decade due to the emergence of resistance to insecticides impregnated on mosquito nets, wars and internal conflicts, as well as global warming. In October 2021, WHO recommended the use of the RTS,S/ASO1 vaccine for children aged 5-17 months in areas of moderate to high transmission. In October 2023, a second vaccine received WHO approval for deployment in the same population, following demonstration of around 70 % efficacy in protecting young children against malaria for one year. Given their partial efficacy, however, these vaccines are not generally recommended for travelers to endemic countries.

Un vaccin contre le paludisme représente une mesure complémentaire essentielle pour juguler la stagnation, voire l'augmentation des cas de paludisme observée durant cette dernière décade en raison de l'émergence de la résistance aux insecticides imprégnés sur les moustiquaires, des guerres et conflits internes ainsi que du réchauffement climatique. En octobre 2021, l'OMS a recommandé l'emploi du vaccin RTS,S/ASO1 pour les enfants de 5 à 17 mois dans les zones de transmission modérée à forte. En octobre 2023, un second vaccin a reçu l'aval de l'OMS pour son déploiement dans la même population, suite à la démonstration d'une efficacité d'environ 70 % pour protéger les jeunes enfants contre le paludisme pendant une année. Vu leur efficacité partielle, ces vaccins ne sont cependant généralement pas recommandés pour les voyageurs se rendant dans les pays d'endémie.

Molecular markers of artemisinin resistance during falciparum malaria elimination in Eastern Myanmar.

BACKGROUND: Artemisinin resistance in Plasmodium falciparum threatens global malaria elimination efforts. To contain and then eliminate artemisinin resistance in Eastern Myanmar a network of community-based malaria posts was instituted and targeted mass drug administration (MDA) with dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (three rounds at monthly intervals) was conducted. The prevalence of artemisinin resistance during the elimination campaign (2013-2019) was characterized. METHODS: Throughout the six-year campaign Plasmodium falciparum positive blood samples from symptomatic patients and from cross-sectional surveys were genotyped for mutations in kelch-13-a molecular marker of artemisinin resistance. RESULT: The program resulted in near elimination of falciparum malaria. Of 5162 P. falciparum positive blood samples genotyped, 3281 (63.6%) had K13 mutations. The prevalence of K13 mutations was 73.9% in 2013 and 64.4% in 2019. Overall, there was a small but significant decline in the proportion of K13 mutants (p < 0.001). In the MDA villages there was no significant change in the K13 proportions before and after MDA. The distribution of different K13 mutations changed substantially; F446I and P441L mutations increased in both MDA and non-MDA villages, while most other K13 mutations decreased. The proportion of C580Y mutations fell from 9.2% (43/467) before MDA to 2.3% (19/813) after MDA (p < 0.001). Similar changes occurred in the 487 villages where MDA was not conducted. CONCLUSION: The malaria elimination program in Kayin state, eastern Myanmar, led to a substantial reduction in falciparum malaria. Despite the intense use of artemisinin-based combination therapies, both in treatment and MDA, this did not select for artemisinin resistance.

System-wide governance challenges of the Ebonyi State Malaria Elimination Programme and recommendations for malaria health system strengthening: a qualitative study among stakeholders in Ebonyi state, Nigeria.

OBJECTIVES: The burden of malaria has persistently been high in Ebonyi state and Nigeria despite long-standing collaborations with international partners with huge and increased amounts of financial investments. We explored the system-wide governance challenges of the Ebonyi State Malaria Elimination Programme (SMEP) and the factors responsible in order to make recommendations for malaria health system strengthening. DESIGN: We did a qualitative study informed by the health system governance framework by Mikkelsen-Lopez et al and Savedoff's concept of governance. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Between 18 October 2022 and 8 November 2022, 25 semistructured face-to-face in-depth interviews were conducted in English with purposively selected key stakeholders in the Ebonyi SMEP aged 18 years or older with at least 2 years of involvement in the SMEP and who gave consent. ANALYSIS: Data were analysed deductively and the analytical strategy was informed by the framework method for the analysis of qualitative data by Gale et al. RESULTS: Many system-wide governance challenges of the SMEP were identified including the absence of state's strategic vision and plans for malaria elimination; very weak primary and secondary healthcare systems; inadequate financial allocation and untimely release of budgeted funds by the state government; lack of human resources for health and very poor mosquito net distribution system. Other challenges were inadequate stakeholders' participation; poor accountability culture; impaired transparency and corruption and impaired ability to address corruption. The fundamental responsible factors were the lack of state government's concern for people's welfare and lack of interest and commitment to the malaria elimination effort, chronic non-employment of staff and lack of human resources in the entire health sector including SMEP, and nepotism and godfatherism. CONCLUSIONS: The system-wide governance challenges and the responsible factors call for changing the 'business as usual' and refocusing on strengthening malaria health system governance in addressing the persisting malaria health problems in Ebonyi state (and Nigeria).

The history of polio vaccination with "Sabin's OPV" 60 years after its introduction in Italy: an unforgivable "delay".

In the spring of 1964, polio vaccination with the oral vaccine developed by Albert Sabin began in Italy. Polio was feared in the world and in Italy. Thus, between 1957 and the beginning of 1958, Italian children began receiving the "Salk vaccine", though the results were not particularly convincing. In July 1960, the international scientific community was able to verify the data from the mass testing of the Sabin vaccine. It became clear that the OPV, could prevent the virus from multiplying, thereby providing greater protection and determining the eradication of the disease. In 1960 over 70 million people in the USSR alone had already received the oral vaccine and mass vaccination in the USA would start in March 1961. However, in Italy there was no similar initiative; only later the new vaccine was accepted but was not made compulsory at the beginning. As a result of the commission's report, registration of the "Polioral" vaccine, was authorized in September 1962 but the sale of the vaccine was not authorized until November 1963. At the beginning of 1964, the production of "Polioral" started and the product was marketed and on the 1 st of March 1964, anti-polio vaccination with the "Sabin anti-polio vaccine" also began in Italy. This manuscript focuses on a crucial issue about a historical delay for public health and it points out as the preparation and diffusion of the Sabin polio vaccine demonstrates that decisions regarding health treatments, and specifically vaccination campaigns, must be based exclusively on the results of clinical studies and on independent evaluation by the scientific community. This process ensures trust in vaccines, adequate protection of public health andcitizens' well-being.

Modeling the effect of imported malaria on the elimination programme in KwaZulu-Natal province of South Africa.

Introduction: with imported malaria cases in a given population, the question arises as to what extent the local cases are a consequence of the imports or not. We perform a modeling analysis for a specific area, in a region aspiring for malaria-free status. Methods: data on malaria cases over ten years is subjected to a compartmental model which is assumed to be operating close to the equilibrium state. Two of the parameters of the model are fitted to the decadal data. The other parameters in the model are sourced from the literature. The model is utilized to simulate the malaria prevalence with or without imported cases. Results: in any given year the annual average of 460 imported cases, resulted in an end-of-year season malaria prevalence of 257 local active infectious cases, whereas without the imports the malaria prevalence at the end of the season would have been fewer than 10 active infectious cases. We calculate the numerical value of the basic reproduction number for the model, which reveals the extent to which the disease is being eliminated from the population or not. Conclusion: without the imported cases, over the ten seasons of malaria, 2008-2018, the KwaZulu-Natal province would have been malaria-free over at least the last 7 years of the decade indicated. This simple methodology works well even in situations where data is limited.

Progress Toward Poliomyelitis Eradication - Worldwide, January 2022-December 2023.

In 1988, poliomyelitis (polio) was targeted for eradication. Global efforts have led to the eradication of two of the three wild poliovirus (WPV) serotypes (types 2 and 3), with only WPV type 1 (WPV1) remaining endemic, and only in Afghanistan and Pakistan. This report describes global polio immunization, surveillance activities, and poliovirus epidemiology during January 2022-December 2023, using data current as of April 10, 2024. In 2023, Afghanistan and Pakistan identified 12 total WPV1 polio cases, compared with 22 in 2022. WPV1 transmission was detected through systematic testing for poliovirus in sewage samples (environmental surveillance) in 13 provinces in Afghanistan and Pakistan, compared with seven provinces in 2022. The number of polio cases caused by circulating vaccine-derived polioviruses (cVDPVs; circulating vaccine virus strains that have reverted to neurovirulence) decreased from 881 in 2022 to 524 in 2023; cVDPV outbreaks (defined as either a cVDPV case with evidence of circulation or at least two positive environmental surveillance isolates) occurred in 32 countries in 2023, including eight that did not experience a cVDPV outbreak in 2022. Despite reductions in paralytic polio cases from 2022, cVDPV cases and WPV1 cases (in countries with endemic transmission) were more geographically widespread in 2023. Renewed efforts to vaccinate persistently missed children in countries and territories where WPV1 transmission is endemic, strengthen routine immunization programs in countries at high risk for poliovirus transmission, and provide more effective cVDPV outbreak responses are necessary to further progress toward global polio eradication.

Towards malaria elimination: a reflection about digital notification modules to improve malaria cases notification speed and follow-up in the Brazilian Amazon region.

BACKGROUND: Health information systems (HIS) are a pivotal element in epidemiological surveillance. In Brazil, malaria persists as a public health challenge, with 99% of its occurrences concentrated in the Amazon region, where cases are reported through the HIS Sivep-Malaria. Recent technological advancements indicate that case notifications can be expedited through more efficient systems with broader coverage. The objective of this study is to analyse opportunities for notification within Sivep-Malaria and explore the implementation of mobile electronic devices and applications to enhance the performance of malaria case notifications and use. METHODS: This descriptive study analyses data on malaria-positive cases in the Brazilian Amazon from 2004 to 2022. Malaria Epidemiological Surveillance System (Sivep-Malaria) data were used. The Brazilian Amazon region area is approximately 5 million km2 across nine different states in Brazil. Data entry opportunities were assessed by considering the time difference between the 'date of data entry' and the 'date of notification.' Descriptive statistics, including analyses of means and medians, were conducted across the entire Amazon region, and for indigenous population villages and gold mining areas. RESULTS: Between 2004 and 2022, 6,176,878 new malaria cases were recorded in Brazil. The average data entry opportunity throughout the period was 17.9 days, with a median of 8 days. The most frequently occurring value was 1 day, and 99% of all notifications were entered within 138 days, with 75.0% entered within 20 days after notification. The states with the poorest data entry opportunities were Roraima and Tocantins, with averages of 31.3 and 31.0 days, respectively. For indigenous population villages and gold mining areas, the median data entry opportunities were 23 and 15 days, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: In malaria elimination, where surveillance is a primary strategy for evaluating each reported case, reducing notification time, enhancing data quality and being able to follow-up cases through computerized reports offer significant benefits for cases investigation. Technological improvements in Sivep-Malaria could yield substantial benefits for malaria control in Brazil, aiding the country in achieving disease elimination and fulfilling the Sustainable Development Goals.

Leveraging malaria vaccines and mRNA technology to tackle the global inequity in pharmaceutical research and production towards disease elimination.

Malaria vaccine introduction in endemic countries is a game-changing milestone in the fight against the disease. This article examines the inequity in the global pharmaceutical research, development, manufacturing, and trade landscape. The role of inequity in hindering progress towards malaria elimination is explored. The analysis finds that transformational changes are required to create an equity-enabling environment. Addressing the inequity is critical to maximizing the public health impact of vaccines and attaining sustainability. Avenues to catalyze progress by leveraging malaria vaccines and messenger ribonucleic acid (mRNA) technology are discussed.

Malaria epidemiology, surveillance and response for elimination in Lao PDR.

BACKGROUND: Lao PDR has made significant progress in malaria control. The National Strategic Plans outline ambitious targets, aiming for the elimination of Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax malaria from all northern provinces by 2025 and national elimination by 2030. This article presents an overview of malaria epidemiology, surveillance, and response systems in Lao PDR, emphasizing experiences and achievements in transmission reduction. METHODS: Data on surveillance, monitoring and evaluation systems, human resources, infrastructure, and community malaria knowledge during 2010-2020 were systematically gathered from the national program and relevant documents. The collected information was synthesized, and discussions on challenges and future prospects were provided. RESULTS: Malaria control and elimination activities in Lao PDR were implemented at various levels, with a focus on health facility catchment areas. There has been significant progress in reducing malaria transmission throughout the country. Targeted interventions, such as case management, vector control, and community engagement, using stratification of control interventions by catchment areas have contributed to the decline in malaria cases. In elimination areas, active surveillance strategies, including case and foci investigation, are implemented to identify and stop transmission. The surveillance system has facilitated timely detection and response to malaria cases, enabling these targeted interventions in higher-risk areas. CONCLUSIONS: The malaria surveillance and response system in Lao PDR has played a crucial role in reducing transmission and advancing the country towards elimination. Challenges such as importation, drug resistance, and sustaining support require ongoing efforts. Further strengthening surveillance, improving access to services, and addressing transmission determinants are key areas of focus to achieve malaria elimination and enhance population health in Lao PDR.

From legacy to integration in the Global Polio Eradication Initiative: looking back to look forward.

INTRODUCTION: The Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) is a global single-disease programme with an extensive infrastructure in some of the world's most underserved areas. It provides a key example of the opportunities and challenges of transition efforts-the process of shifting from donor-funded, single-disease programmes to programmes with more integrated and sustainable programmatic and funding streams. Our goal is to closely analyse the social and political dynamics of the polio transition in the 2010s to provide insights into today, as well as lessons for other programmes. METHODS: We conducted semistructured interviews with GPEI officials involved in transition planning across GPEI partner agencies (n=11). We also drew on document review and interviews with national and subnational actors in Nigeria, India, Ethiopia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. We inductively analysed this material to capture emergent themes in the evolution of transition activities in the GPEI. RESULTS: Since the mid-2010s, GPEI actors expressed concern that polio's assets should not be lost when polio was eradicated. Planning for polio's legacy, however, proved complicated. The GPEI's commitment to and focus on eradication had taken precedence over strong collaborations outside the polio programme, making building alliances for transition challenging. There were also complex questions around who should be responsible for the transition process, and which agencies would ultimately pay for and deliver polio-funded functions. Current efforts to achieve 'integration' both have great promise and must grapple with these same issues. DISCUSSION: Within the GPEI, relinquishing control to other programmes and planning for significant, long-term funding for transition will be central to achieving successful integration and eventual transition. Beyond polio, other vertical programmes can benefit from going beyond transition 'planning' to integrate transition into the initial design of vertical programmes.

'It is impossible to meet our officially bTB-free targets with the current testing policy'.

Neil J Watt and Keith Cutler argue that Defra's aim of achieving officially bovine tuberculosis (bTB)-free status for England by 2038 is unlikely to be met without a drastic change to testing and policy.

Report offers harsh verdict on global polio vaccine switch.

Draft evaluation calls 2016 decision to change oral vaccines a "failure".