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1.
Clin Infect Dis ; 78(Supplement_2): S138-S145, 2024 Apr 25.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38662693

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Concerns that annual mass administration of ivermectin, the predominant strategy for onchocerciasis control and elimination, may not lead to elimination of parasite transmission (EoT) in all endemic areas have increased interest in alternative treatment strategies. One such strategy is moxidectin. We performed an updated economic assessment of moxidectin- relative to ivermectin-based strategies. METHODS: We investigated annual and biannual community-directed treatment with ivermectin (aCDTI, bCDTI) and moxidectin (aCDTM, bCDTM) with minimal or enhanced coverage (65% or 80% of total population taking the drug, respectively) in intervention-naive areas with 30%, 50%, or 70% microfilarial baseline prevalence (representative of hypo-, meso-, and hyperendemic areas). We compared programmatic delivery costs for the number of treatments achieving 90% probability of EoT (EoT90), calculated with the individual-based stochastic transmission model EPIONCHO-IBM. We used the costs for 40 years of program delivery when EoT90 was not reached earlier. The delivery costs do not include drug costs. RESULTS: aCDTM and bCDTM achieved EoT90 with lower programmatic delivery costs than aCDTI with 1 exception: aCDTM with minimal coverage did not achieve EoT90 in hyperendemic areas within 40 years. With minimal coverage, bCDTI delivery costs as much or more than aCDTM and bCDTM. With enhanced coverage, programmatic delivery costs for aCDTM and bCDTM were lower than for aCDTI and bCDTI. CONCLUSIONS: Moxidectin-based strategies could accelerate progress toward EoT and reduce programmatic delivery costs compared with ivermectin-based strategies. The costs of moxidectin to national programs are needed to quantify whether delivery cost reductions will translate into overall program cost reduction.


Subject(s)
Ivermectin , Macrolides , Onchocerciasis , Macrolides/therapeutic use , Macrolides/economics , Macrolides/administration & dosage , Onchocerciasis/drug therapy , Onchocerciasis/prevention & control , Onchocerciasis/economics , Onchocerciasis/epidemiology , Humans , Ivermectin/economics , Ivermectin/therapeutic use , Ivermectin/administration & dosage , Mass Drug Administration/economics , Disease Eradication/economics , Cost-Benefit Analysis
2.
Clin Infect Dis ; 78(Supplement_2): S160-S168, 2024 Apr 25.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38662697

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The Global Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis (GPELF) aims to reduce and maintain infection levels through mass drug administration (MDA), but there is evidence of ongoing transmission after MDA in areas where Culex mosquitoes are the main transmission vector, suggesting that a more stringent criterion is required for MDA decision making in these settings. METHODS: We use a transmission model to investigate how a lower prevalence threshold (<1% antigenemia [Ag] prevalence compared with <2% Ag prevalence) for MDA decision making would affect the probability of local elimination, health outcomes, the number of MDA rounds, including restarts, and program costs associated with MDA and surveys across different scenarios. To determine the cost-effectiveness of switching to a lower threshold, we simulated 65% and 80% MDA coverage of the total population for different willingness to pay per disability-adjusted life-year averted for India ($446.07), Tanzania ($389.83), and Haiti ($219.84). RESULTS: Our results suggest that with a lower Ag threshold, there is a small proportion of simulations where extra rounds are required to reach the target, but this also reduces the need to restart MDA later in the program. For 80% coverage, the lower threshold is cost-effective across all baseline prevalences for India, Tanzania, and Haiti. For 65% MDA coverage, the lower threshold is not cost-effective due to additional MDA rounds, although it increases the probability of local elimination. Valuing the benefits of elimination to align with the GPELF goals, we find that a willingness to pay per capita government expenditure of approximately $1000-$4000 for 1% increase in the probability of local elimination would be required to make a lower threshold cost-effective. CONCLUSIONS: Lower Ag thresholds for stopping MDAs generally mean a higher probability of local elimination, reducing long-term costs and health impacts. However, they may also lead to an increased number of MDA rounds required to reach the lower threshold and, therefore, increased short-term costs. Collectively, our analyses highlight that lower target Ag thresholds have the potential to assist programs in achieving lymphatic filariasis goals.


Subject(s)
Cost-Benefit Analysis , Elephantiasis, Filarial , Mass Drug Administration , Elephantiasis, Filarial/prevention & control , Elephantiasis, Filarial/epidemiology , Elephantiasis, Filarial/economics , Humans , Mass Drug Administration/economics , Haiti/epidemiology , Tanzania/epidemiology , Prevalence , India/epidemiology , Animals , Disease Eradication/economics , Disease Eradication/methods , Filaricides/therapeutic use , Filaricides/administration & dosage , Filaricides/economics , Antigens, Helminth/blood , Culex
4.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 118(50)2021 12 14.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34887355

ABSTRACT

The global health community has earmarked a number of diseases for elimination or eradication, and these goals have often been praised on the premise of long-run cost savings. However, decision makers must contend with a multitude of demands on health budgets in the short or medium term, and costs per case often rise as the burden of a disease falls, rendering such efforts beyond the cost-effective use of scarce resources. In addition, these decisions must be made in the presence of substantial uncertainty regarding the feasibility and costs of elimination or eradication efforts. Therefore, analytical frameworks are necessary to consider the additional effort for reaching global goals, like elimination or eradication, that are beyond the cost-effective use of country resources. We propose a modification to the net-benefit framework to consider the implications of switching from an optimal strategy, in terms of cost-per-burden averted, to a strategy with a higher likelihood of meeting the global target of elimination or eradication. We illustrate the properties of our framework by considering the economic case of efforts to eliminate the transmission of gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT), a vector-borne, parasitic disease in West and Central Africa, by 2030.


Subject(s)
Disease Eradication/economics , Models, Economic , Trypanosomiasis, African/economics , Trypanosomiasis, African/epidemiology , Humans , Trypanosoma brucei gambiense , Trypanosomiasis, African/parasitology
5.
PLoS Negl Trop Dis ; 15(11): e0009894, 2021 11.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34813600

ABSTRACT

This study presents a methodology for using tracer indicators to measure the effects of disease-specific programs on national health systems. The methodology is then used to analyze the effects of Bangladesh's Lymphatic Filariasis Elimination Program, a disease-specific program, on the health system. Using difference-in-differences models and secondary data from population-based household surveys, this study compares changes over time in the utilization rates of eight essential health services and incidences of catastrophic health expenditures between individuals and households, respectively, of lymphatic filariasis hyper-endemic districts (treatment districts) and of hypo- and non-endemic districts (control districts). Utilization of all health services increased from year 2000 to year 2014 for the entire population but more so for the population living in treatment districts. However, when the services were analyzed individually, the difference-in-differences between the two populations was insignificant. Disadvantaged populations (i.e., populations that lived in rural areas, belonged to lower wealth quintiles, or did not attend school) were less likely to access essential health services. After five years of program interventions, households in control districts had a lower incidence of catastrophic health expenditures at several thresholds measured using total household expenditures and total non-food expenditures as denominators. Using essential health service coverage rates as outcome measures, the Lymphatic Filariasis Elimination Program cannot be said to have strengthened or weakened the health system. We can also say that there is a positive association between the Lymphatic Filariasis Elimination Program's interventions and lowered incidence of catastrophic health expenditures.


Subject(s)
Disease Eradication/economics , Elephantiasis, Filarial/prevention & control , Health Expenditures , Bangladesh/epidemiology , Elephantiasis, Filarial/economics , Elephantiasis, Filarial/epidemiology , Family Characteristics , Health Services , Humans , Insurance Coverage , Poverty , Program Evaluation
6.
PLoS Med ; 18(10): e1003818, 2021 10.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34665815

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Modelling suggests that achieving the WHO incidence target for hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination in Pakistan could cost US$3.87 billion over 2018 to 2030. However, the economic benefits from integrating services or improving productivity were not included. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We adapt a HCV transmission model for Pakistan to estimate the impact, costs, and cost-effectiveness of achieving HCV elimination (reducing annual HCV incidence by 80% by 2030) with stand-alone service delivery, or partially integrating one-third of initial HCV testing into existing healthcare services. We estimate the net economic benefits by comparing the required investment in screening, treatment, and healthcare management to the economic productivity gains from reduced HCV-attributable absenteeism, presenteeism, and premature deaths. We also calculate the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted for HCV elimination versus maintaining current levels of HCV treatment. This is compared to an opportunity cost-based willingness-to-pay threshold for Pakistan (US$148 to US$198/DALY). Compared to existing levels of treatment, scaling up screening and treatment to achieve HCV elimination in Pakistan averts 5.57 (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 3.80 to 8.22) million DALYs and 333,000 (219,000 to 509,000) HCV-related deaths over 2018 to 2030. If HCV testing is partially integrated, this scale-up requires an investment of US$1.45 (1.32 to 1.60) billion but will result in US$1.30 (0.94 to 1.72) billion in improved economic productivity over 2018 to 2030. This elimination strategy is highly cost-effective (ICER = US$29 per DALY averted) by 2030, with it becoming cost-saving by 2031 and having a net economic benefit of US$9.10 (95% UI 6.54 to 11.99) billion by 2050. Limitations include uncertainty around what level of integration is possible within existing primary healthcare services as well as a lack of Pakistan-specific data on disease-related healthcare management costs or productivity losses due to HCV. CONCLUSIONS: Investment in HCV elimination can bring about substantial societal health and economic benefits for Pakistan.


Subject(s)
Disease Eradication/economics , Health Care Costs , Hepacivirus/physiology , Hepatitis C/economics , Models, Economic , Adolescent , Adult , Child , Child, Preschool , Cost-Benefit Analysis , Disability-Adjusted Life Years , Efficiency , Hepatitis C/diagnosis , Hepatitis C/mortality , Humans , Infant , Infant, Newborn , Morbidity , Pakistan/epidemiology , Young Adult
7.
Int J Cancer ; 149(12): 1997-2009, 2021 12 15.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34363620

ABSTRACT

The WHO has launched a global strategy to eliminate cervical cancer through the scale-up of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination, cervical screening, and cervical cancer treatment. Malaysia has achieved high-coverage HPV vaccination since 2010, but coverage of the existing cytology-based program remains low. Pilot studies found HPV self-sampling was acceptable and effective, with high follow-up rates when a digital registry was used, and recently the Malaysian Government announced plans for a national HPV-based screening program. We therefore evaluated the impact of primary HPV screening with self-collection in Malaysia in the context of Malaysia's existing vaccination program. We used the "Policy1-Cervix" modeling platform to assess health outcomes, cost-effectiveness, resource use and cervical cancer elimination timing (the year when cervical cancer rates reach four cases per 100 000 women) of implementing primary HPV testing with self-collection, assuming 70% routine-screening coverage could be achieved. Based on available data, we assumed that compliance with follow-up was 90% when a digital registry was used, but that compliance with follow-up would be 50-75% without the use of a digital registry. We found that the current vaccination program would prevent 27 000 to 32 200 cervical cancer cases and 11 700 to 14 000 deaths by 2070. HPV testing with a digital registry was cost-effective (CER = $US 6953-7549 < $US 11 373[<1×GDP per capita]) and could prevent an additional 15 900 to 17 800 cases and 9700 to 10 600 deaths by 2070, expediting national elimination by 11 to 20 years, to 2055 to 2059. If HPV screening were implemented without a digital registry, there would be 1800 to 4900 fewer deaths averted by 2070 and the program would be less cost-effective. These results underline the importance of HPV testing as a key elimination pillar in Malaysia.


Subject(s)
Disease Eradication/organization & administration , Mass Screening/organization & administration , Papillomavirus Infections/prevention & control , Uterine Cervical Neoplasms/prevention & control , Vaccination Coverage/organization & administration , Alphapapillomavirus/isolation & purification , Cervix Uteri/pathology , Cervix Uteri/virology , Cost-Benefit Analysis , Disease Eradication/economics , Female , Humans , Malaysia/epidemiology , Mass Screening/economics , Mass Screening/methods , Papillomavirus Infections/diagnosis , Papillomavirus Infections/epidemiology , Papillomavirus Infections/virology , Papillomavirus Vaccines/administration & dosage , Uterine Cervical Neoplasms/diagnosis , Uterine Cervical Neoplasms/epidemiology , Uterine Cervical Neoplasms/virology , Vaccination Coverage/economics
8.
Malar J ; 20(1): 344, 2021 Aug 16.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34399767

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Malaria continues to be a public health problem in South Africa. While the disease is mainly confined to three of the nine provinces, most local transmissions occur because of importation of cases from neighbouring countries. The government of South Africa has reiterated its commitment to eliminate malaria within its borders. To support the achievement of this goal, this study presents a cost-benefit analysis of malaria elimination in South Africa through simulating different scenarios aimed at achieving malaria elimination within a 10-year period. METHODS: A dynamic mathematical transmission model was developed to estimate the costs and benefits of malaria elimination in South Africa between 2018 and 2030. The model simulated a range of malaria interventions and estimated their impact on the transmission of Plasmodium falciparum malaria between 2018 and 2030 in the three endemic provinces of Limpopo, Mpumalanga and KwaZulu-Natal. Local financial, economic, and epidemiological data were used to calibrate the transmission model. RESULTS: Based on the three primary simulated scenarios: Business as Usual, Accelerate and Source Reduction, the total economic burden was estimated as follows: for the Business as Usual scenario, the total economic burden of malaria in South Africa was R 3.69 billion (USD 223.3 million) over an 11-year period (2018-2029). The economic burden of malaria was estimated at R4.88 billion (USD 295.5 million) and R6.34 billion (~ USD 384 million) for the Accelerate and Source Reduction scenarios, respectively. Costs and benefits are presented in midyear 2020 values. Malaria elimination was predicted to occur in all three provinces if the Source Reduction strategy was adopted to help reduce malaria rates in southern Mozambique. This could be achieved by limiting annual local incidence in South Africa to less than 1 indigenous case with a prediction of this goal being achieved by the year 2026. CONCLUSIONS: Malaria elimination in South Africa is feasible and economically worthwhile with a guaranteed positive return on investment (ROI). Findings of this study show that through securing funding for the proposed malaria interventions in the endemic areas of South Africa and neighbouring Mozambique, national elimination could be within reach in an 8-year period.


Subject(s)
Disease Eradication/economics , Malaria, Falciparum/prevention & control , Humans , Models, Economic , South Africa
10.
PLoS Negl Trop Dis ; 15(6): e0009433, 2021 06.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34077416

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Onchocerciasis affects some of the world's most marginalized people, perpetuating poverty and inequalities. Mass Drug Administration (MDA) with Ivermectin has taken place within the Meme River basin region in Cameroon for over 15 years. Despite this, onchocerciasis is still prevalent in the region due to existing and emerging contextual challenges. Using a social-ecological approach we explore the everyday realities of communities, highlighting the challenges and potential solutions that could support Neglected Tropical Disease (NTD) programmes when transitioning from control to elimination of onchocerciasis in this highly endemic area and other similar communities. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDING: In-depth interviews (71) with community members and Community Drug Distributors (CDDs) were conducted to understand current knowledge, attitudes, and behaviours in relation to transmission, prevention and treatment of onchocerciasis. Through application of the social-ecological model, four key themes were identified: 1. Contextual factors on health promotion interventions (Onchocerciasis history and understanding of the disease, prevention and mitigation strategies and MDA experience); 2. Social determinants (poverty and livelihoods, economic and social impacts on CDD volunteers and stigma); 3. Environmental determinants (exposure, housing, occupation and poverty); and 4. health seeking pathways and decision making for treatment (access, cost and preferable treatment routes). We discuss these core and cross cutting themes (gender differences and community participation/ownership) in relation to intersectoral collaboration, gender equity and health systems support, making recommendations for NTD programmes within the context of integrated and interdisciplinary approaches. These include the need for; intersectional and gender analysis at the local level, addressing environmental dimensions of onchocerciasis through integrated and regular health promotion, vector control strategies and access to safe water sources; reflection and action that embeds responses to social and economic barriers to MDA; integrated case detection and management that is responsive to onchocerciasis symptoms and related stigma and a fair and just support network for CDDs. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: NTD programmes need to respond to diverse community circumstances and behaviours. Communities are not a homogeneous risk group and treating them in this way will delay elimination. A deeper understanding of individual needs and their capacity to seek prevention and treatment must be considered if onchocerciasis is to be eliminated and the remaining impacts managed.


Subject(s)
Disease Eradication/methods , Ecosystem , Onchocerciasis/epidemiology , Onchocerciasis/prevention & control , Socioeconomic Factors , Adolescent , Adult , Anthelmintics/administration & dosage , Anthelmintics/therapeutic use , Cameroon/epidemiology , Data Collection , Diethylcarbamazine/administration & dosage , Diethylcarbamazine/therapeutic use , Disease Eradication/economics , Environmental Exposure , Female , Health Care Costs , Humans , Interviews as Topic , Ivermectin/administration & dosage , Ivermectin/therapeutic use , Male , Mass Drug Administration , Middle Aged , Onchocerciasis/transmission , Patient Acceptance of Health Care , Rivers , Young Adult
12.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 118(1)2021 01 05.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33443170

ABSTRACT

Invasive organisms pose a global threat and are exceptionally difficult to eradicate after they become abundant in their new habitats. We report a successful multitactic strategy for combating the pink bollworm (Pectinophora gossypiella), one of the world's most invasive pests. A coordinated program in the southwestern United States and northern Mexico included releases of billions of sterile pink bollworm moths from airplanes and planting of cotton engineered to produce insecticidal proteins from the bacterium Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt). An analysis of computer simulations and 21 y of field data from Arizona demonstrate that the transgenic Bt cotton and sterile insect releases interacted synergistically to reduce the pest's population size. In Arizona, the program started in 2006 and decreased the pest's estimated statewide population size from over 2 billion in 2005 to zero in 2013. Complementary regional efforts eradicated this pest throughout the cotton-growing areas of the continental United States and northern Mexico a century after it had invaded both countries. The removal of this pest saved farmers in the United States $192 million from 2014 to 2019. It also eliminated the environmental and safety hazards associated with insecticide sprays that had previously targeted the pink bollworm and facilitated an 82% reduction in insecticides used against all cotton pests in Arizona. The economic and social benefits achieved demonstrate the advantages of using agricultural biotechnology in concert with classical pest control tactics.


Subject(s)
Bacillus thuringiensis Toxins/genetics , Bacillus thuringiensis/genetics , Disease Eradication/methods , Gossypium/genetics , Moths/genetics , Pest Control, Biological/methods , Animals , Animals, Genetically Modified , Arizona , Bacillus thuringiensis Toxins/metabolism , Computer Simulation , Disease Eradication/economics , Infertility/genetics , Insecticides/metabolism , Mexico , Moths/growth & development , Moths/pathogenicity , Plants, Genetically Modified , Southwestern United States
13.
J Hepatol ; 74(3): 535-549, 2021 03.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32971137

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND & AIMS: More than 292 million people are living with hepatitis B worldwide and are at risk of death from cirrhosis and liver cancer. The World Health Organization (WHO) has set global targets for the elimination of viral hepatitis as a public health threat by 2030. However, current levels of global investment in viral hepatitis elimination programmes are insufficient to achieve these goals. METHODS: To catalyse political commitment and to encourage domestic and international financing, we used published modelling data and key stakeholder interviews to develop an investment framework to demonstrate the return on investment for viral hepatitis elimination. RESULTS: The framework utilises a public health approach to identify evidence-based national activities that reduce viral hepatitis-related morbidity and mortality, as well as international activities and critical enablers that allow countries to achieve maximum impact on health outcomes from their investments - in the context of the WHO's 2030 viral elimination targets. CONCLUSION: Focusing on hepatitis B, this health policy paper employs the investment framework to estimate the substantial economic benefits of investing in the elimination of hepatitis B and demonstrates how such investments could be cost saving by 2030. LAY SUMMARY: Hepatitis B infection is a major cause of death from liver disease and liver cancer globally. To reduce deaths from hepatitis B infection, we need more people to be tested and treated for hepatitis B. In this paper, we outline a framework of activities to reduce hepatitis B-related deaths and discuss ways in which governments could pay for them.


Subject(s)
Disease Eradication/economics , Global Health/economics , Healthcare Financing , Hepatitis B virus , Hepatitis B, Chronic/economics , Investments , Public Health/economics , Adult , Antiviral Agents/economics , Antiviral Agents/therapeutic use , Child , Cost-Benefit Analysis , Female , Hepatitis B Vaccines/therapeutic use , Hepatitis B, Chronic/drug therapy , Hepatitis B, Chronic/prevention & control , Hepatitis B, Chronic/virology , Humans , Treatment Outcome , Vaccination/methods , World Health Organization
14.
Risk Anal ; 41(2): 349-363, 2021 02.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32645244

ABSTRACT

Countries face different poliovirus risks, which imply different benefits associated with continued and future use of oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) and/or inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV). With the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) continuing to extend its timeline for ending the transmission of all wild polioviruses and to introduce new poliovirus vaccines, the polio vaccine supply chain continues to expand in complexity. The increased complexity leads to significant uncertainty about supply and costs. Notably, the strategy of phased OPV cessation of all three serotypes to stop all future incidence of poliomyelitis depends on successfully stopping the transmission of all wild polioviruses. Countries also face challenges associated with responding to any outbreaks that occur after OPV cessation, because stopping transmission of such outbreaks requires reintroducing the use of the stopped OPV in most countries. National immunization program leaders will likely consider differences in their risks and willingness-to-pay for risk reduction as they evaluate their investments in current and future polio vaccination. Information about the costs and benefits of future poliovirus vaccines, and discussion of the complex situation that currently exists, should prove useful to national, regional, and global decisionmakers and support health economic modeling. Delays in achieving polio eradication combined with increasing costs of poliovirus vaccines continue to increase financial risks for the GPEI.


Subject(s)
Disease Eradication/economics , Poliomyelitis/prevention & control , Poliovirus Vaccine, Inactivated/economics , Poliovirus Vaccine, Oral/economics , Poliovirus/immunology , Costs and Cost Analysis , Disease Outbreaks/prevention & control , Global Health , Health Care Costs , Humans , Immunization Programs , Models, Economic , Risk , Risk Management , Serogroup , Vaccination
16.
Value Health ; 23(12): 1552-1560, 2020 12.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33248510

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES: Testing and treatment for hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection are highly effective, high-impact interventions. This article aims to estimate the cost-effectiveness of scaling up these interventions by scenarios, regions, and income groups. METHODS: We modeled costs and impacts of hepatitis elimination in 67 low- and middle-income countries from 2016 to 2030. Costs included testing and treatment commodities, healthcare consultations, and future savings from cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinomas averted. We modeled disease progression to estimate disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) averted. We estimated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) by regions and World Bank income groups, according to 3 scenarios: flatline (status quo), progress (testing/treatment according to World Health Organization guidelines), and ambitious (elimination). RESULTS: Compared with no action, current levels of testing and treatment had an ICER of $807/DALY for HBV and -$62/DALY (cost-saving) for HCV. Scaling up to progress scenario, both interventions had ICERs less than the average gross domestic product/capita of countries (HBV: $532/DALY; HCV: $613/DALY). Scaling up from flatline to elimination led to higher ICERs across countries (HBV: $927/DALY; HCV: $2528/DALY, respectively) that remained lower than the average gross domestic product/capita. Sensitivity analysis indicated discount rates and commodity costs were main factors driving results. CONCLUSIONS: Scaling up testing and treatment for HBV and HCV infection as per World Health Organization guidelines is a cost-effective intervention. Elimination leads to a much larger impact though ICERs are higher. Price reduction strategies are needed to achieve elimination given the substantial budget impact at current commodity prices.


Subject(s)
Hepatitis B/economics , Hepatitis C/economics , Antiviral Agents/economics , Antiviral Agents/therapeutic use , Cost Savings/economics , Cost Savings/statistics & numerical data , Cost-Benefit Analysis , Developing Countries/economics , Developing Countries/statistics & numerical data , Disease Eradication/economics , Disease Eradication/methods , Hepatitis B/diagnosis , Hepatitis B/drug therapy , Hepatitis B/prevention & control , Hepatitis C/diagnosis , Hepatitis C/drug therapy , Hepatitis C/prevention & control , Humans , Income/statistics & numerical data , Quality-Adjusted Life Years
17.
Value Health ; 23(12): 1534-1542, 2020 12.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33248508

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES: The ambitious goals of the US Ending the HIV Epidemic initiative will require a targeted, context-specific public health response. Model-based economic evaluation provides useful guidance for decision making while characterizing decision uncertainty. We aim to quantify the value of eliminating uncertainty about different parameters in selecting combination implementation strategies to reduce the public health burden of HIV/AIDS in 6 US cities and identify future data collection priorities. METHODS: We used a dynamic compartmental HIV transmission model developed for 6 US cities to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of a range of combination implementation strategies. Using a metamodeling approach with nonparametric and deep learning methods, we calculated the expected value of perfect information, representing the maximum value of further research to eliminate decision uncertainty, and the expected value of partial perfect information for key groups of parameters that would be collected together in practice. RESULTS: The population expected value of perfect information ranged from $59 683 (Miami) to $54 108 679 (Los Angeles). The rank ordering of expected value of partial perfect information on key groups of parameters were largely consistent across cities and highest for parameters pertaining to HIV risk behaviors, probability of HIV transmission, health service engagement, HIV-related mortality, health utility weights, and healthcare costs. Los Angeles was an exception, where parameters on retention in pre-exposure prophylaxis ranked highest in contributing to decision uncertainty. CONCLUSIONS: Funding additional data collection on HIV/AIDS may be warranted in Baltimore, Los Angeles, and New York City. Value of information analysis should be embedded into decision-making processes on funding future research and public health intervention.


Subject(s)
Data Collection/methods , Decision Making, Organizational , Disease Eradication/methods , HIV Infections/prevention & control , Adolescent , Adult , Cost-Benefit Analysis , Data Collection/economics , Disease Eradication/economics , Disease Eradication/organization & administration , Female , HIV Infections/economics , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Models, Statistical , Uncertainty , United States/epidemiology , Urban Population/statistics & numerical data , Young Adult
18.
Value Health ; 23(11): 1432-1437, 2020 11.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33127013

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: This study aims to cost and calculate the relative cost-effectiveness of the hypothetical suppression policies found in the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team model. METHODS: Key population-level disease projections in deaths, intensive care unit bed days, and non-intensive care unit bed days were taken from the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team report of March 2020, which influenced the decision to introduce suppression policies in the United Kingdom. National income loss estimates were from a study that estimated the impact of a hypothetical pandemic on the UK economy, with sensitivity analyses based on projections that are more recent. Individual quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) loss and costed resource use inputs were taken from published sources. RESULTS: Imperial model projected suppression polices compared to an unmitigated pandemic, even with the most pessimistic national income loss scenarios under suppression (10%), give incremental cost-effectiveness ratios below £50 000 per QALY. Assuming a maximum reduction in national income of 7.75%, incremental cost-effectiveness ratios for Imperial model projected suppression versus mitigation are below 60 000 per QALY. CONCLUSIONS: Results are uncertain and conditional on the accuracy of the Imperial model projections; they are also sensitive to estimates of national income loss. Nevertheless, it would be difficult to claim that the hypothetical Imperial model-projected suppression policies are obviously cost-ineffective relative to the alternatives available. Despite evolving differences between government policy and Imperial model-projected suppression policy, it is hoped this article will provide some early insight into the trade-offs that are involved.


Subject(s)
Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Disease Eradication/economics , Health Policy/economics , Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology , Betacoronavirus , COVID-19 , Cost-Benefit Analysis , Humans , Pandemics , Quality-Adjusted Life Years , SARS-CoV-2 , United Kingdom/epidemiology
19.
Am J Trop Med Hyg ; 103(6): 2260-2267, 2020 12.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32996446

ABSTRACT

We estimated the financial costs of different interventions against urogenital schistosomiasis, implemented by the Zanzibar Elimination of Schistosomiasis Transmission (ZEST) project, on Pemba and Unguja islands, Tanzania. We used available data on project activities, resources used, and costs reported in the accounting information systems of ZEST partners. The costs were estimated for all the activities related to snail control, behavior change interventions, the impact assessment surveys, and management of the whole program. Costs are presented in US$ for the full duration of the ZEST project from 2011/2012 to 2017. The total financial costs of implementing snail control activities over 5 years, excluding the costs for donated Bayluscide, were US$55,796 on Pemba and US$73,581 on Unguja, mainly driven by personnel costs. The total financial costs of implementing behavior change activities were US$109,165 on Pemba and US$155,828 on Unguja, with costs for personnel accounting for 47% on Pemba and 69% on Unguja. Costs of implementing biannual mass drug administration refer to the estimated 2.4 million treatments provided on Pemba over 4 years (2013-2016), and do not include the costs of donated praziquantel. The total cost per provided treatment was, on average, US$0.21. This study showed the value of exploiting administrative data to estimate costs of major global health interventions. It also provides an evidence base for financial costs and main cost drivers of implementing multiple combinations of intervention sets that inform decisions regarding the feasibility and affordability of implementing schistosomiasis control and elimination strategies.


Subject(s)
Anthelmintics/therapeutic use , Disease Eradication/economics , Praziquantel/therapeutic use , Schistosoma haematobium/drug effects , Schistosomiasis haematobia/drug therapy , Snails/parasitology , Animals , Humans , Islands , Schistosomiasis haematobia/economics , Schistosomiasis haematobia/epidemiology , Schistosomiasis haematobia/parasitology , Surveys and Questionnaires , Tanzania/epidemiology
20.
Zhongguo Xue Xi Chong Bing Fang Zhi Za Zhi ; 32(4): 436-440, 2020 May 08.
Article in Chinese | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32935526

ABSTRACT

With the joint efforts of countries and global non-state actors, great achievements have been made in the global malaria control programme; however, malaria remains a serious threat to human health. As the global leader for combating malaria, WHO formulated The Global Technical Strategy for Malaria 2016-2030, and the Global Malaria Programme, under the leadership of WHO, is responsible for implementing 5 key projects to achieve the goal proposed in The Global Technical Strategy for Malaria 2016-2030. In addition, the Global Fund, the U.S. President's Malaria Initiative and Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation also play an important role in global malaria elimination programme. This review describes the currently main non-state actors participating in the global malaria elimination programme, and calls for the enhanced inter-actor coordination and close collaboration with state governments to achieve the great goal of malaria elimination in the world.


Subject(s)
Disease Eradication , Malaria , Disease Eradication/economics , Disease Eradication/organization & administration , Disease Eradication/trends , Global Health , Government Programs , Humans , Malaria/prevention & control , Organizations
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