ZMapp reduces diffusion of Ebola viral particles in fresh human cervicovaginal mucus.

Vaginal transmission from semen of male Ebola virus (EBOV) survivors has been implicated as a potential origin of Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreaks. While EBOV in semen must traverse cervicovaginal mucus (CVM) to reach target cells, the behaviour of EBOV in CVM is poorly understood. CVM contains substantial quantities of IgG, and arrays of IgG bound to a virion can develop multiple Fc-mucin bonds, immobilizing the IgG/virion complex in mucus. Here, we measured the real-time mobility of fluorescent Ebola virus-like-particles (VLP) in 50 CVM specimens from 17 women, with and without ZMapp, a cocktail of 3 monoclonal IgGs against EBOV. ZMapp-mediated effective trapping of Ebola VLPs in CVM from a subset of women across the menstrual cycle, primarily those with Lactobacillus crispatus dominant microbiota. Our work underscores the influence of the vaginal microbiome on IgG-mucin crosslinking against EBOV and identifies bottlenecks in the sexual transmission of EBOV.

Serological evidence of zoonotic filovirus exposure among bushmeat hunters in Guinea.

Human Ebola virus (EBOV) outbreaks caused by persistent EBOV infection raises questions on the role of zoonotic spillover in filovirus epidemiology. To characterise filovirus zoonotic exposure, we collected cross-sectional serum samples from bushmeat hunters (n = 498) in Macenta Prefecture Guinea, adjacent to the index site of the 2013 EBOV-Makona spillover event. We identified distinct immune signatures (20/498, 4.0%) to multiple EBOV antigens (GP, NP, VP40) using stepwise ELISA and Western blot analysis and, live EBOV neutralisation (5/20; 25%). Using comparative serological data from PCR-confirmed survivors of the 2013-2016 EBOV outbreak, we demonstrated that most signatures (15/20) were not plausibly explained by prior EBOV-Makona exposure. Subsequent data-driven modelling of EBOV immunological outcomes to remote-sensing environmental data also revealed consistent associations with intact closed canopy forest. Together our findings suggest exposure to other closely related filoviruses prior to the 2013-2016 West Africa epidemic and highlight future surveillance priorities.

Sudan virus disease super-spreading, Uganda, 2022.

BACKGROUND: On 20 September 2022, Uganda declared its fifth Sudan virus disease (SVD) outbreak, culminating in 142 confirmed and 22 probable cases. The reproductive rate (R) of this outbreak was 1.25. We described persons who were exposed to the virus, became infected, and they led to the infection of an unusually high number of cases during the outbreak. METHODS: In this descriptive cross-sectional study, we defined a super-spreader person (SSP) as any person with real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) confirmed SVD linked to the infection of ≥ 13 other persons (10-fold the outbreak R). We reviewed illness narratives for SSPs collected through interviews. Whole-genome sequencing was used to support epidemiologic linkages between cases. RESULTS: Two SSPs (Patient A, a 33-year-old male, and Patient B, a 26-year-old male) were identified, and linked to the infection of one probable and 50 confirmed secondary cases. Both SSPs lived in the same parish and were likely infected by a single ill healthcare worker in early October while receiving healthcare. Both sought treatment at multiple health facilities, but neither was ever isolated at an Ebola Treatment Unit (ETU). In total, 18 secondary cases (17 confirmed, one probable), including three deaths (17%), were linked to Patient A; 33 secondary cases (all confirmed), including 14 (42%) deaths, were linked to Patient B. Secondary cases linked to Patient A included family members, neighbours, and contacts at health facilities, including healthcare workers. Those linked to Patient B included healthcare workers, friends, and family members who interacted with him throughout his illness, prayed over him while he was nearing death, or exhumed his body. Intensive community engagement and awareness-building were initiated based on narratives collected about patients A and B; 49 (96%) of the secondary cases were isolated in an ETU, a median of three days after onset. Only nine tertiary cases were linked to the 51 secondary cases. Sequencing suggested plausible direct transmission from the SSPs to 37 of 39 secondary cases with sequence data. CONCLUSION: Extended time in the community while ill, social interactions, cross-district travel for treatment, and religious practices contributed to SVD super-spreading. Intensive community engagement and awareness may have reduced the number of tertiary infections. Intensive follow-up of contacts of case-patients may help reduce the impact of super-spreading events.

Individual and household risk factors for Ebola disease among household contacts in Mubende and Kassanda districts, Uganda, 2022.

BACKGROUND: In 2022, an Ebola disease outbreak caused by Sudan virus (SUDV) occurred in Uganda, primarily affecting Mubende and Kassanda districts. We determined risk factors for SUDV infection among household members (HHM) of cases. METHODS: We conducted a case-control and retrospective cohort study in January 2023. Cases were RT-PCR-confirmed SUDV infection in residents of Mubende or Kassanda districts during the outbreak. Case-households housed a symptomatic, primary case-patient for ≥ 24 h and had ≥ 1 secondary case-patient with onset < 2 weeks after their last exposure to the primary case-patient. Control households housed a case-patient and other HHM but no secondary cases. A risk factor questionnaire was administered to the primary case-patient or another adult who lived at home while the primary case-patient was ill. We conducted a retrospective cohort study among case-household members and categorized their interactions with primary case-patients during their illnesses as none, minimal, indirect, and direct contact. We conducted logistic regression to explore associations between exposures and case-household status, and Poisson regression to identify risk factors for SUDV infection among HHM. RESULTS: Case- and control-households had similar median sizes. Among 19 case-households and 51 control households, primary case-patient death (adjusted odds ratio [ORadj] = 7.6, 95% CI 1.4-41) and ≥ 2 household bedrooms (ORadj=0.19, 95% CI 0.056-0.71) were associated with case-household status. In the cohort of 76 case-HHM, 44 (58%) were tested for SUDV < 2 weeks from their last contact with the primary case-patient; 29 (38%) were positive. Being aged ≥ 18 years (adjusted risk ratio [aRRadj] = 1.9, 95%CI: 1.01-3.7) and having direct or indirect contact with the primary case-patient (aRRadj=3.2, 95%CI: 1.1-9.7) compared to minimal or no contact increased risk of Sudan virus disease (SVD). Access to a handwashing facility decreased risk (aRRadj=0.52, 95%CI: 0.31-0.88). CONCLUSION: Direct contact, particularly providing nursing care for and sharing sleeping space with SVD patients, increased infection risk among HHM. Risk assessments during contact tracing may provide evidence to justify closer monitoring of some HHM. Health messaging should highlight the risk of sharing sleeping spaces and providing nursing care for persons with Ebola disease symptoms and emphasize hand hygiene to aid early case identification and reduce transmission.

Impact of Ebola virus nucleoprotein on VP40 virus-like particle production: a computational approach.

Ebola virus (EBOV) matrix protein VP40 can assemble and bud as virus-like particles (VLPs) when expressed alone in mammalian cells. Nucleoprotein (NP) could be recruited to VLPs as inclusion body (IB) when co-expressed, and increase VLP production. However, the mechanism behind it remains unclear. Here, we use a computational approach to study NP-VP40 interactions. Our simulations indicate that NP may enhance VLP production through stabilizing VP40 filaments and accelerating the VLP budding step. Further, both the relative timing and amount of NP expression compared to VP40 are important for the effective production of IB-containing VLPs. We predict that relative NP/VP40 expression ratio and time are important for efficient production of IB-containing VLPs. We conclude that disrupting the expression timing and amount of NP and VP40 could provide new avenues to treat EBOV infection. This work provides quantitative insights into EBOV proteins interactions and how virion generation and drug efficacy could be influenced.

Computational and stability analysis of Ebola virus epidemic model with piecewise hybrid fractional operator.

In this manuscript, we developed a nonlinear fractional order Ebola virus with a novel piecewise hybrid technique to observe the dynamical transmission having eight compartments. The existence and uniqueness of a solution of piecewise derivative is treated for a system with Arzel'a-Ascoli and Schauder conditions. We investigate the effects of classical and modified fractional calculus operators, specifically the classical Caputo piecewise operator, on the behavior of the model. A model shows that a completely continuous operator is uniformly continuous, and bounded according to the equilibrium points. The reproductive number R0 is derived for the biological feasibility of the model with sensitivity analysis with different parameters impact on the model. Sensitivity analysis is an essential tool for comprehending how various model parameters affect the spread of illness. Through a methodical manipulation of important parameters and an assessment of their impact on Ro, we are able to learn more about the resiliency and susceptibility of the model. Local stability is established with next Matignon method and global stability is conducted with the Lyapunov function for a feasible solution of the proposed model. In the end, a numerical solution is derived with Newton's polynomial technique for a piecewise Caputo operator through simulations of the compartments at various fractional orders by using real data. Our findings highlight the importance of fractional operators in enhancing the accuracy of the model in capturing the intricate dynamics of the disease. This research contributes to a deeper understanding of Ebola virus dynamics and provides valuable insights for improving disease modeling and public health strategies.

Design and characterization of protective pan-ebolavirus and pan-filovirus bispecific antibodies.

Monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) are an important class of antiviral therapeutics. MAbs are highly selective, well tolerated, and have long in vivo half-life as well as the capacity to induce immune-mediated virus clearance. Their activities can be further enhanced by integration of their variable fragments (Fvs) into bispecific antibodies (bsAbs), affording simultaneous targeting of multiple epitopes to improve potency and breadth and/or to mitigate against viral escape by a single mutation. Here, we explore a bsAb strategy for generation of pan-ebolavirus and pan-filovirus immunotherapeutics. Filoviruses, including Ebola virus (EBOV), Sudan virus (SUDV), and Marburg virus (MARV), cause severe hemorrhagic fever. Although there are two FDA-approved mAb therapies for EBOV infection, these do not extend to other filoviruses. Here, we combine Fvs from broad ebolavirus mAbs to generate novel pan-ebolavirus bsAbs that are potently neutralizing, confer protection in mice, and are resistant to viral escape. Moreover, we combine Fvs from pan-ebolavirus mAbs with those of protective MARV mAbs to generate pan-filovirus protective bsAbs. These results provide guidelines for broad antiviral bsAb design and generate new immunotherapeutic candidates.

Computational and experimental identification of keystone interactions in Ebola virus matrix protein VP40 dimer formation.

The Ebola virus (EBOV) is a lipid-enveloped virus with a negative sense RNA genome that can cause severe and often fatal viral hemorrhagic fever. The assembly and budding of EBOV is regulated by the matrix protein, VP40, which is a peripheral protein that associates with anionic lipids at the inner leaflet of the plasma membrane. VP40 is sufficient to form virus-like particles (VLPs) from cells, which are nearly indistinguishable from authentic virions. Due to the restrictions of studying EBOV in BSL-4 facilities, VP40 has served as a surrogate in cellular studies to examine the EBOV assembly and budding process from the host cell plasma membrane. VP40 is a dimer where inhibition of dimer formation halts budding and formation of new VLPs as well as VP40 localization to the plasma membrane inner leaflet. To better understand VP40 dimer stability and critical amino acids to VP40 dimer formation, we integrated computational approaches with experimental validation. Site saturation/alanine scanning calculation, combined with molecular mechanics-based generalized Born with Poisson-Boltzmann surface area (MM-GB/PBSA) method and molecular dynamics simulations were used to predict the energetic contribution of amino acids to VP40 dimer stability and the hydrogen bonding network across the dimer interface. These studies revealed several previously unknown interactions and critical residues predicted to impact VP40 dimer formation. In vitro and cellular studies were then pursued for a subset of VP40 mutations demonstrating reduction in dimer formation (in vitro) or plasma membrane localization (in cells). Together, the computational and experimental approaches revealed critical residues for VP40 dimer stability in an alpha-helical interface (between residues 106-117) as well as in a loop region (between residues 52-61) below this alpha-helical region. This study sheds light on the structural origins of VP40 dimer formation and may inform the design of a small molecule that can disrupt VP40 dimer stability.

Identification and Potential Roles of Human MicroRNAs in Ebola Virus Infection and Disease Pathogenesis.

Ebola virus (EBOV) is a highly pathogenic virus that causes a severe illness called Ebola virus disease (EVD). EVD has a high mortality rate and remains a significant threat to public health. Research on EVD pathogenesis has traditionally focused on host transcriptional responses. Limited recent studies, however, have revealed some information on the significance of cellular microRNAs (miRNAs) in EBOV infection and pathogenic mechanisms, but further studies are needed. Thus, this study aimed to identify and validate additional known and novel human miRNAs in EBOV-infected adult retinal pigment epithelial (ARPE) cells and predict their potential roles in EBOV infection and pathogenic mechanisms. We analyzed previously available small RNA-Seq data obtained from ARPE cells and identified 23 upregulated and seven downregulated miRNAs in the EBOV-infected cells; these included two novel miRNAs and 17 additional known miRNAs not previously identified in ARPE cells. In addition to pathways previously identified by others, these miRNAs are associated with pathways and biological processes that include WNT, FoxO, and phosphatidylinositol signaling; these pathways were not identified in the original study. This study thus confirms and expands on the previous study using the same datasets and demonstrates further the importance of human miRNAs in the host response and EVD pathogenesis during infection.

Helminth exposure and immune response to the two-dose heterologous Ad26.ZEBOV, MVA-BN-Filo Ebola vaccine regimen.

BACKGROUND: The exposure to parasites may influence the immune response to vaccines in endemic African countries. In this study, we aimed to assess the association between helminth exposure to the most prevalent parasitic infections, schistosomiasis, soil transmitted helminths infection and filariasis, and the Ebola virus glycoprotein (EBOV GP) antibody concentration in response to vaccination with the Ad26.ZEBOV, MVA-BN-Filo vaccine regimen in African and European participants using samples obtained from three international clinical trials. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We conducted a study in a subset of participants in the EBL2001, EBL2002 and EBL3001 clinical trials that evaluated the Ad26.ZEBOV, MVA-BN-Filo vaccine regimen against EVD in children, adolescents and adults from the United Kingdom, France, Burkina Faso, Cote d'Ivoire, Kenya, Uganda and Sierra Leone. Immune markers of helminth exposure at baseline were evaluated by ELISA with three commercial kits which detect IgG antibodies against schistosome, filarial and Strongyloides antigens. Luminex technology was used to measure inflammatory and activation markers, and Th1/Th2/Th17 cytokines at baseline. The association between binding IgG antibodies specific to EBOV GP (measured on day 21 post-dose 2 and on Day 365 after the first dose respectively), and helminth exposure at baseline was evaluated using a multivariable linear regression model adjusted for age and study group. Seventy-eight (21.3%) of the 367 participants included in the study had at least one helminth positive ELISA test at baseline, with differences of prevalence between studies and an increased prevalence with age. The most frequently detected antibodies were those to Schistosoma mansoni (10.9%), followed by Acanthocheilonema viteae (9%) and then Strongyloides ratti (7.9%). Among the 41 immunological analytes tested, five were significantly (p < .003) lower in participants with at least one positive helminth ELISA test result: CCL2/MCP1, FGFbasic, IL-7, IL-13 and CCL11/Eotaxin compared to participants with negative helminth ELISA tests. No significant association was found with EBOV-GP specific antibody concentration at 21 days post-dose 2, or at 365 days post-dose 1, adjusted for age group, study, and the presence of any helminth antibodies at baseline. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: No clear association was found between immune markers of helminth exposure as measured by ELISA and post-vaccination response to the Ebola Ad26.ZEBOV/ MVA-BN-Filo vaccine regimen. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT02416453, NCT02564523, NCT02509494. ClinicalTrials.gov.

Ebola Virus Glycoprotein Strongly Binds to Membranes in the Absence of Receptor Engagement.

Ebola virus (EBOV) is an enveloped virus that must fuse with the host cell membrane in order to release its genome and initiate infection. This process requires the action of the EBOV envelope glycoprotein (GP), encoded by the virus, which resides in the viral envelope and consists of a receptor binding subunit, GP1, and a membrane fusion subunit, GP2. Despite extensive research, a mechanistic understanding of the viral fusion process is incomplete. To investigate GP-membrane association, a key step in the fusion process, we used two approaches: high-throughput measurements of single-particle diffusion and single-molecule measurements with optical tweezers. Using these methods, we show that the presence of the endosomal Niemann-Pick C1 (NPC1) receptor is not required for primed GP-membrane binding. In addition, we demonstrate this binding is very strong, likely attributed to the interaction between the GP fusion loop and the membrane's hydrophobic core. Our results also align with previously reported findings, emphasizing the significance of acidic pH in the protein-membrane interaction. Beyond Ebola virus research, our approach provides a powerful toolkit for studying other protein-membrane interactions, opening new avenues for a better understanding of protein-mediated membrane fusion events.

Mapping of susceptibility loci for Ebola virus pathogenesis in mice.

Ebola virus (EBOV), a major global health concern, causes severe, often fatal EBOV disease (EVD) in humans. Host genetic variation plays a critical role, yet the identity of host susceptibility loci in mammals remains unknown. Using genetic reference populations, we generate an F2 mapping cohort to identify host susceptibility loci that regulate EVD. While disease-resistant mice display minimal pathogenesis, susceptible mice display severe liver pathology consistent with EVD-like disease and transcriptional signatures associated with inflammatory and liver metabolic processes. A significant quantitative trait locus (QTL) for virus RNA load in blood is identified in chromosome (chr)8, and a severe clinical disease and mortality QTL is mapped to chr7, which includes the Trim5 locus. Using knockout mice, we validate the Trim5 locus as one potential driver of liver failure and mortality after infection. The identification of susceptibility loci provides insight into molecular genetic mechanisms regulating EVD progression and severity, potentially informing therapeutics and vaccination strategies.

Ebola-specific therapeutic antibodies from lab to clinic: The example of ZMapp.

In the 1990s, monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) progressed from scientific tools to advanced therapeutics, particularly for the treatment of cancers and autoimmune and inflammatory disorders. In the arena of infectious disease, the inauguration of mAbs as a post-exposure treatment in humans against Ebola virus (EBOV) occurred in response to the 2013-2016 West Africa outbreak. This review recounts the history of a candidate mAb treatment, ZMapp, beginning with its emergency use in the 2013-2016 outbreak and advancing to randomized controlled trials into the 2018-2020 African outbreak. We end with a brief discussion of the hurdles and promise toward mAb therapeutic use against infectious disease.

Broad antibody and T cell responses to Ebola, Sudan, and Bundibugyo ebolaviruses using mono- and multi-valent adjuvanted glycoprotein vaccines.

Currently, there are two approved vaccine regimens designed to prevent Ebola virus (EBOV) disease (EVD). Both are virus-vectored, and concerns about cold-chain storage and pre-existing immunity to the vectors warrant investigating additional vaccine strategies. Here, we have explored the utility of adjuvanted recombinant glycoproteins (GPs) from ebolaviruses Zaire (EBOV), Sudan (SUDV), and Bundibugyo (BDBV) for inducing antibody (Ab) and T cell cross-reactivity. Glycoproteins expressed in insect cells were administered to C57BL/6 mice as free protein or bound to the surface of liposomes, and formulated with toll-like receptor agonists CpG and MPLA (agonists for TLR 9 and 4, respectively), with or without the emulsions AddaVax or TiterMax. The magnitude of Ab cross-reactivity in binding and neutralization assays, and T cell cross-reactivity in antigen recall assays, correlated with phylogenetic relatedness. While most adjuvants screened induced IgG responses, a combination of CpG, MPLA and AddaVax emulsion ("IVAX-1") was the most potent and polarized in an IgG2c (Th1) direction. Breadth was also achieved by combining GPs into a trivalent (Tri-GP) cocktail with IVAX-1, which did not compromise antibody responses to individual components in binding and neutralizing assays. Th1 signature cytokines in T cell recall assays were undetectable after Tri-GP/IVAX-1 administration, despite a robust IgG2c response, although administration of Tri-GP on lipid nanoparticles in IVAX-1 elevated Th1 cytokines to detectable levels. Overall, the data indicate an adjuvanted trivalent recombinant GP approach may represent a path toward a broadly reactive, deployable vaccine against EVD.

A novel MARV glycoprotein-specific antibody with potentials of broad-spectrum neutralization to filovirus.

Marburg virus (MARV) is one of the filovirus species that cause deadly hemorrhagic fever in humans, with mortality rates up to 90%. Neutralizing antibodies represent ideal candidates to prevent or treat virus disease. However, no antibody has been approved for MARV treatment to date. In this study, we identified a novel human antibody named AF-03 that targeted MARV glycoprotein (GP). AF-03 possessed a high binding affinity to MARV GP and showed neutralizing and protective activities against the pseudotyped MARV in vitro and in vivo. Epitope identification, including molecular docking and experiment-based analysis of mutated species, revealed that AF-03 recognized the Niemann-Pick C1 (NPC1) binding domain within GP1. Interestingly, we found the neutralizing activity of AF-03 to pseudotyped Ebola viruses (EBOV, SUDV, and BDBV) harboring cleaved GP instead of full-length GP. Furthermore, NPC2-fused AF-03 exhibited neutralizing activity to several filovirus species and EBOV mutants via binding to CI-MPR. In conclusion, this work demonstrates that AF-03 represents a promising therapeutic cargo for filovirus-caused disease.

Lot-to-lot consistency, immunogenicity, and safety of the Ad26.ZEBOV, MVA-BN-Filo Ebola virus vaccine regimen: A phase 3, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial.

This phase-3, double-blind, placebo-controlled study (NCT04228783) evaluated lot-to-lot consistency of the Ad26.ZEBOV, MVA-BN-Filo Ebola vaccine regimen. Participants were randomized (6:6:6:1) to receive the two-dose regimen from three consecutively manufactured lots of Ad26.ZEBOV on Day 1 paired with three consecutively manufactured lots of MVA-BN-Filo on Day 57 (Groups 1-3) or two doses of placebo (Group 4). An additional cohort also received an Ad26.ZEBOV booster or placebo 4 months post-dose 2. Equivalence of the immunogenicity at 21 days post-dose 2 between any two groups was demonstrated if the 95% confidence interval (CI) of the Ebola virus glycoprotein (EBOV GP)-binding antibody geometric mean concentration (GMC) ratio was entirely within the prespecified margin of 0.5-2.0. Lot-to-lot consistency (i.e., consecutive lots can be consistently manufactured) was accomplished if equivalence was shown for all three pairwise comparisons. Results showed that the primary objective in the per-protocol immunogenicity subset (n = 549) was established for each pairwise comparison (Group 1 vs 2: GMC ratio = 0.9 [95% CI: 0.8, 1.1], Group 1 vs 3: 0.9 [0.8, 1.1], Group 2 vs 3: 1.0 [0.9, 1.2]). Equivalence of the three groups for the Ad26.ZEBOV component only was also demonstrated at 56 days post-dose 1. EBOV GP-binding antibody responses (post-vaccination concentrations >2.5-fold from baseline) were observed in 419/421 (99.5%) vaccine recipients at 21 days post-dose 2 and 445/460 (96.7%) at 56 days post-dose 1. In the booster cohort (n = 39), GMCs increased 9.0- and 11.8-fold at 7 and 21 days post-booster, respectively, versus pre-booster. Ad26.ZEBOV, MVA-BN-Filo was well tolerated, and no safety issues were identified.

Geographic Disparities in Domestic Pig Population Exposure to Ebola Viruses, Guinea, 2017-2019.

Although pigs are naturally susceptible to Reston virus and experimentally to Ebola virus (EBOV), their role in Orthoebolavirus ecology remains unknown. We tested 888 serum samples collected from pigs in Guinea during 2017-2019 (between the 2013-16 epidemic and its resurgence in 2021) by indirect ELISA against the EBOV nucleoprotein. We identified 2 hotspots of possible pig exposure by IgG titer levels: the northern coast had 48.7% of positive serum samples (37/76), and Forest Guinea, bordering Sierra Leone and Liberia, where the virus emerged and reemerged, had 50% of positive serum samples (98/196). The multitarget Luminex approach confirms ELISA results against Ebola nucleoprotein and highlights cross-reactivities to glycoprotein of EBOV, Reston virus, and Bundibugyo virus. Those results are consistent with previous observations of the circulation of Orthoebolavirus species in pig farming regions in Sierra Leone and Ghana, suggesting potential risk for Ebola virus disease in humans, especially in Forest Guinea.

Effects of Shock and Vibration on Product Quality during Last-Mile Transportation of Ebola Vaccine under Refrigerated Conditions1.

Analyzing vaccine stability under different storage and transportation conditions is critical to ensure that effectiveness and safety are not affected by distribution. In a simulation of the last mile in the supply chain, we found that shock and vibration had no effect on Ad26.ZEBOV/MVA-BN-Filo Ebola vaccine regimen quality under refrigerated conditions.

Evaluating the risk of conflict on recent Ebola outbreaks in Guinea and the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

BACKGROUND: Reducing Ebola virus transmission relies on the ability to identify cases and limit contact with infected bodily fluids through biosecurity, safe sex practices, safe burial and vaccination. Armed conflicts can complicate outbreak detection and interventions due to widespread disruption to governments and populations. Guinea and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) have historically reported the largest and the most recent Ebola virus outbreaks. Understanding if conflict played a role in these outbreaks may help in identifying key risks factors to improve disease control. METHODS: We used data from a range of publicly available data sources for both Ebola virus cases and conflict events from 2018 to 2021 in Guinea and the DRC. We fitted these data to conditional logistic regression models using the Self-Controlled Case Series methodology to evaluate the magnitude in which conflict increased the risk of reported Ebola virus cases in terms of incidence rate ratio. We re-ran the analysis sub-nationally, by conflict sub-event type and tested any lagged effects. RESULTS: Conflict was significantly associated with an increased risk of reported Ebola virus cases in both the DRC and Guinea in recent outbreaks. The effect was of a similar magnitude at 1.88- and 1.98-times increased risk for the DRC and Guinea, respectively. The greatest effects (often higher than the national values) were found in many conflict prone areas and during protest/riot-related conflict events. Conflict was influential in terms of Ebola virus risk from 1 week following the event and remained important by 10 weeks. CONCLUSION: Extra vigilance is needed following protests and riot-related conflict events in terms of Ebola virus transmission. These events are highly disruptive, in terms of access to transportation and healthcare and are often in urban areas with high population densities. Additional public health messaging around these types of conflict events, relating to the risks and clinical symptoms may be helpful in reducing transmission. Future work should aim to further understand and quantify conflict severity and intensity, to evaluate dose-response relationships in terms of disease risk.

Ebola virus disease sequelae and viral persistence in animal models: Implications for the future.

Ebola virus disease (EVD), caused by infection with Ebola virus, results in severe, acute illness with a high mortality rate. As the incidence of outbreaks of EVD increases and with the development and approval of medical countermeasures (MCMs) against the acute disease, late phases of EVD, including sequelae, recrudescence, and viral persistence, are occuring more frequently and are now a focus of ongoing research. Existing animal disease models recapitulate acute EVD but are not suitable to investigate the mechanisms of these late disease phenomena. Although there are challenges in establishing such a late disease model, the filovirus research community has begun to call for the development of an EBOV persistence model to address late disease concerns. Ultimately, this will aid the development of MCMs against late disease and benefit survivors of future EVD and filovirus outbreaks.