Cardiovascular risk and physical activity in Syrians living in England compared with the population of North West England: a cross-sectional study.

OBJECTIVE: This study aims to assess the 10-year cardiovascular risk and physical activity among Syrians residing in England and compare them with the North West England population. DESIGN: Cross-sectional study. SETTING: Bilingual online questionnaire distributed through social media platforms from 21 June to 23 July 2023. PARTICIPANTS: Syrian individuals in England (aged 25-69, migrated post-2010) and residents of North West England within the same age bracket. All participants had no history of cardiovascular disease (CVD). PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Primary outcome measures included differences in QRISK3 score, 10-year relative risk (RR), metabolic equivalent of task (MET) and self-reported physical activity between the two groups. Secondary outcome measures included subgroup analyses based on sex and age. RESULTS: Of the 273 eligible participants (137 in the Syrian group and 136 in the Northwest England group), the QRISK3 score was twofold higher in the Syrian group (2.20, 5.50) than in the North West England group (1.20, 3.15) (p=0.042). The 10-year RR was approximately three times higher in the Syrian group (p<0.001), while MET was about twice as high in the Northwest England group (p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Despite relocating to England, Syrians face substantially elevated cardiovascular risks attributed to an unhealthy lifestyle, including smoking, reduced physical activity, increased body mass index and diabetes, coupled with a strong family history of CVD in first-degree relatives under the age of 60. The study underscores the need for early assessment, risk factor identification and tailored interventions for this population. Raising awareness, particularly in the context of smoking, and promoting physical activity are crucial for mitigating cardiovascular risks. The findings emphasise the importance of culturally sensitive interventions to address the unique health challenges of Syrians in the UK.

Cancer incidence, treatment, and survival in the prison population compared with the general population in England: a population-based, matched cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The growing and ageing prison population in England makes accurate cancer data of increasing importance for prison health policies. This study aimed to compare cancer incidence, treatment, and survival between patients diagnosed in prison and the general population. METHODS: In this population-based, matched cohort study, we used cancer registration data from the National Cancer Registration and Analysis Service in England to identify primary invasive cancers and cervical cancers in situ diagnosed in adults (aged ≥18 years) in the prison and general populations between Jan 1, 1998, and Dec 31, 2017. Ministry of Justice and Office for National Statistics population data for England were used to calculate age-standardised incidence rates (ASIR) per year and age-standardised incidence rate ratios (ASIRR) for the 20-year period. Patients diagnosed with primary invasive cancers (ie, excluding cervical cancers in situ) in prison between Jan 1, 2012, and Dec 31, 2017 were matched to individuals from the general population and linked to hospital and treatment datasets. Matching was done in a 1:5 ratio according to 5-year age group, gender, diagnosis year, cancer site, and disease stage. Our primary objectives were to compare the incidence of cancer (1998-2017); the receipt of treatment with curative intent (2012-17 matched cohort), using logistic regression adjusted for matching variables (excluding cancer site) and route to diagnosis; and overall survival following cancer diagnosis (2012-17 matched cohort), using a Cox proportional hazards model adjusted for matching variables (excluding cancer site) and route to diagnosis, with stratification for the receipt of any treatment with curative intent. FINDINGS: We identified 2015 incident cancers among 1964 adults (1556 [77·2%] men and 459 [22·8%] women) in English prisons in the 20-year period up to Dec 31, 2017. The ASIR for cancer for men in prison was initially lower than for men in the general population (in 1998, ASIR 119·33 per 100 000 person-years [95% CI 48·59-219·16] vs 746·97 per 100 000 person-years [742·31-751·66]), but increased to a similar level towards the end of the study period (in 2017, 856·85 per 100 000 person-years [675·12-1060·44] vs 788·59 per 100 000 person-years [784·62-792·57]). For women, the invasive cancer incidence rate was low and so ASIR was not reported for this group. Over the 20-year period, the incidence of invasive cancer for men in prison increased (incidence rate ratio per year, 1·05 [95% CI 1·04-1·06], during 1999-2017 compared with 1998). ASIRRs showed that over the 20-year period, overall cancer incidence was lower in men in prison than in men in the general population (ASIRR 0·76 [95% CI 0·73-0·80]). The difference was not statistically significant for women (ASIRR 0·83 [0·68-1·00]). Between Jan 1, 2012, and Dec 31, 2017, patients diagnosed in prison were less likely to undergo curative treatment than matched patients in the general population (274 [32·3%] of 847 patients vs 1728 [41·5%] of 4165; adjusted odds ratio (OR) 0·72 [95% CI 0·60-0·85]). Being diagnosed in prison was associated with a significantly increased risk of death on adjustment for matching variables (347 deaths during 2021·9 person-years in the prison cohort vs 1626 deaths during 10 944·2 person-years in the general population; adjusted HR 1·16 [95% CI 1·03-1·30]); this association was partly explained by stratification by curative treatment and further adjustment for diagnosis route (adjusted HR 1·05 [0·93-1·18]). INTERPRETATION: Cancer incidence increased in people in prisons in England between 1998 and 2017, with patients in prison less likely to receive curative treatments and having lower overall survival than the general population. The association with survival was partly explained by accounting for differences in receipt of curative treatment and adjustment for diagnosis route. Improved routine cancer surveillance is needed to inform prison cancer policies and decrease inequalities for this under-researched population. FUNDING: UK National Institute for Health and Care Research, King's College London, and Strategic Priorities Fund 2019/20 of Research England via the University of Surrey.

Social health and subsequent cognitive functioning in people aged 50 years and older: examining the mediating roles of depressive symptoms and inflammatory biomarkers in two European longitudinal studies.

BACKGROUND: Social health markers, including marital status, contact frequency, network size, and social support, have been shown to be associated with cognition. However, the mechanisms underlying these associations remain poorly understood. We investigated whether depressive symptoms and inflammation mediated associations between social health and subsequent cognition. METHODS: In the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA), a nationally representative longitudinal study in England, UK, we sampled 7136 individuals aged 50 years or older living in private households without dementia at baseline or at the intermediate mediator assessment timepoint, who had recorded information on at least one social health marker and potential mediator. We used four-way decomposition to examine to what extent depressive symptoms, C-reactive protein, and fibrinogen mediated associations between social health and subsequent standardised cognition (verbal fluency and delayed and immediate recall), including cognitive change, with slopes derived from multilevel models (12-year slope). We examined whether findings were replicated in the Swedish National Study on Aging and Care in Kungsholmen (SNAC-K), a population-based longitudinal study in Sweden, in a sample of 2604 individuals aged 60 years or older living at home or in institutions in Kungsholmen (central Stockholm) without dementia at baseline or at the intermediate mediator assessment timepoint (6-year slope). Social health exposures were assessed at baseline, potential mediators were assessed at an intermediate timepoint (wave 2 in ELSA and 6-year follow-up in SNAC-K); cognitive outcomes were assessed at a single timepoint (wave 3 in ELSA and 12-year follow-up in SNAC-K), and cognitive change (between waves 3 and 9 in ELSA and between 6-year and 12-year follow-ups in SNAC-K). FINDINGS: The study sample included 7136 participants from ELSA, of whom 3962 (55·5%) were women and 6934 (97·2%) were White; the mean baseline age was 63·8 years (SD 9·4). Replication analyses included 2604 participants from SNAC-K, of whom 1604 (61·6%) were women (SNAC-K did not collect ethnicity data); the mean baseline age was 72·3 years (SD 10·1). In ELSA, we found indirect effects via depressive symptoms of network size, positive support, and less negative support on subsequent verbal fluency, and of positive support on subsequent immediate recall (pure indirect effect [PIE] 0·002 [95% CI 0·001-0·003]). Depressive symptoms also partially mediated associations between less negative support and slower decline in immediate recall (PIE 0·001 [0·000-0·002]) and in delayed recall (PIE 0·001 [0·000-0·002]), and between positive support and slower decline in immediate recall (PIE 0·001 [0·000-0·001]). We did not observe mediation by inflammatory biomarkers. Findings of mediation by depressive symptoms in the association between positive support and verbal fluency and between positive support and change in immediate recall were replicated in SNAC-K. INTERPRETATION: The findings of this study provide new insights into mechanisms linking social health with cognition, suggesting that associations between interactional aspects of social health, especially social support, and cognition are partly underpinned by depressive symptoms. FUNDING: EU Joint Programme-Neurodegenerative Disease Research (JPND) and Alzheimer's Society. TRANSLATION: For the Swedish translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

A Bayesian spatio-temporal model of COVID-19 spread in England.

Exploring the spatio-temporal variations of COVID-19 transmission and its potential determinants could provide a deeper understanding of the dynamics of disease spread. This study aimed to investigate the spatio-temporal spread of COVID-19 infections in England, and examine its associations with socioeconomic, demographic and environmental risk factors. We obtained weekly reported COVID-19 cases from 7 March 2020 to 26 March 2022 at Middle Layer Super Output Area (MSOA) level in mainland England from publicly available datasets. With these data, we conducted an ecological study to predict the COVID-19 infection risk and identify its associations with socioeconomic, demographic and environmental risk factors using a Bayesian hierarchical spatio-temporal model. The Bayesian model outperformed the ordinary least squares model and geographically weighted regression model in terms of prediction accuracy. The spread of COVID-19 infections over space and time was heterogeneous. Hotspots of infection risk exhibited inconsistent clustering patterns over time. Risk factors found to be positively associated with COVID-19 infection risk were: annual household income [relative risk (RR) = 1.0008, 95% Credible Interval (CI) 1.0005-1.0012], unemployment rate [RR = 1.0027, 95% CI 1.0024-1.0030], population density on the log scale [RR = 1.0146, 95% CI 1.0129-1.0164], percentage of Caribbean population [RR = 1.0022, 95% CI 1.0009-1.0036], percentage of adults aged 45-64 years old [RR = 1.0031, 95% CI 1.0024-1.0039], and particulate matter ( PM 2.5 ) concentrations [RR = 1.0126, 95% CI 1.0083-1.0167]. The study highlights the importance of considering socioeconomic, demographic, and environmental factors in analysing the spatio-temporal variations of COVID-19 infections in England. The findings could assist policymakers in developing tailored public health interventions at a localised level.

Impact of interventions to reduce nosocomial transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in English NHS Trusts: a computational modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Prior to September 2021, 55,000-90,000 hospital inpatients in England were identified as having a potentially nosocomial SARS-CoV-2 infection. This includes cases that were likely missed due to pauci- or asymptomatic infection. Further, high numbers of healthcare workers (HCWs) are thought to have been infected, and there is evidence that some of these cases may also have been nosocomially linked, with both HCW to HCW and patient to HCW transmission being reported. From the start of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic interventions in hospitals such as testing patients on admission and universal mask wearing were introduced to stop spread within and between patient and HCW populations, the effectiveness of which are largely unknown. MATERIALS/METHODS: Using an individual-based model of within-hospital transmission, we estimated the contribution of individual interventions (together and in combination) to the effectiveness of the overall package of interventions implemented in English hospitals during the COVID-19 pandemic. A panel of experts in infection prevention and control informed intervention choice and helped ensure the model reflected implementation in practice. Model parameters and associated uncertainty were derived using national and local data, literature review and formal elicitation of expert opinion. We simulated scenarios to explore how many nosocomial infections might have been seen in patients and HCWs if interventions had not been implemented. We simulated the time period from March-2020 to July-2022 encompassing different strains and multiple doses of vaccination. RESULTS: Modelling results suggest that in a scenario without inpatient testing, infection prevention and control measures, and reductions in occupancy and visitors, the number of patients developing a nosocomial SARS-CoV-2 infection could have been twice as high over the course of the pandemic, and over 600,000 HCWs could have been infected in the first wave alone. Isolation of symptomatic HCWs and universal masking by HCWs were the most effective interventions for preventing infections in both patient and HCW populations. Model findings suggest that collectively the interventions introduced over the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in England averted 400,000 (240,000 - 500,000) infections in inpatients and 410,000 (370,000 - 450,000) HCW infections. CONCLUSIONS: Interventions to reduce the spread of nosocomial infections have varying impact, but the package of interventions implemented in England significantly reduced nosocomial transmission to both patients and HCWs over the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic.

Insomnia symptom prevalence in England: a comparison of cross-sectional self-reported data and primary care records in the UK Biobank.

OBJECTIVES: We aimed to use a large dataset to compare self-reported and primary care measures of insomnia symptom prevalence in England and establish whether they identify participants with similar characteristics. DESIGN: Cross-sectional study with linked electronic health records (EHRs). SETTING: Primary care in England. PARTICIPANTS: 163 748 UK Biobank participants in England (aged 38-71 at baseline) with linked primary care EHRs. OUTCOME MEASURES: We compared the percentage of those self-reporting 'usually' having insomnia symptoms at UK Biobank baseline assessment (2006-2010) to those with a Read code for insomnia symptoms in their primary care records prior to baseline. We stratified prevalence in both groups by sociodemographic, lifestyle, sleep and health characteristics. RESULTS: We found that 29% of the sample self-reported having insomnia symptoms, while only 6% had a Read code for insomnia symptoms in their primary care records. Only 10% of self-reported cases had an insomnia symptom Read code, while 49% of primary care cases self-reported having insomnia symptoms. In both primary care and self-reported data, prevalence of insomnia symptom cases was highest in females, older participants and those with the lowest household incomes. However, while snorers and risk takers were more likely to be a primary care case, they were less likely to self-report insomnia symptoms than non-snorers and non-risk takers. CONCLUSIONS: Only a small proportion of individuals experiencing insomnia symptoms have an insomnia symptom Read code in their primary care record. However, primary care data do provide a clinically meaningful measure of insomnia prevalence. In addition, the sociodemographic characteristics of people attending primary care with insomnia were consistent with those with self-reported insomnia, thus primary care records are a valuable data source for studying risk factors for insomnia. Further studies should replicate our findings in other populations and examine ways to increase discussions about sleep health in primary care.

Socio-economic inequalities in the breadth of internet use before and during the COVID-19 pandemic among older adults in England.

Understanding digital exclusion in older adults during the COVID-19 pandemic could help tailor responses to future outbreaks. This cohort study used data from older adults aged 60+ years in England who participated in wave nine (2018/2019) of the main English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA) survey, and/or wave one of the ELSA COVID-19 sub-study (June/July 2020). Using latent class analysis and latent transition analysis, we aimed to identify distinct subgroups of older adults characterised by different patterns of internet use pre- and intra-pandemic, explore the extent to which individuals remained in the same subgroup or transitioned to a different subgroup during the COVID-19 pandemic, and examine longitudinal associations of socio-economic factors (education, occupational class, and wealth) with latent class membership. Preliminary tests showed that the types of internet activities differed between men and women; therefore, subsequent analyses were stratified by biological sex. Three clusters (low, medium, and high) were identified in male participants at both timepoints. Among female participants, three clusters were distinguished pre-pandemic and two (low versus high) during the pandemic. The latent classes were characterised by participants' breadth of internet use. Higher education, occupational class, and wealth were associated with greater odds of membership in the medium and/or high classes, versus the low class, in men and women. A high degree of stability in latent class membership was observed over time. However, men experienced a stark decrease in online health information-seeking. Our results highlight that inequality regarding the range of functional and social opportunities provided by the internet prevailed during the pandemic. Policymakers should ensure that digital access and upskilling initiatives are equitable for all.

Factors influencing uptake of protective behaviours by healthcare workers in England during the COVID-19 pandemic: A theory-based mixed-methods study.

BACKGROUND: Hospital infection control policies protect patients and healthcare workers (HCWs) and limit the spread of pathogens, but adherence to COVID-19 guidance varies. We examined hospital HCWs' enactment of social distancing and use of personal protective equipment (PPE) during the COVID-19 pandemic, factors influencing these behaviours, and acceptability and feasibility of strategies to increase social distancing. METHODS: An online, cross-sectional survey (n = 86) and semi-structured interviews (n = 22) with HCWs in two English hospitals during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic (May-December 2020). The Capability, Opportunity, Motivation (COM-B) model of behaviour change underpinned survey and topic guide questions. Spearman Rho correlations examined associations between COM-B domains and behaviours. Interviews were analysed using inductive and deductive thematic analysis. Potential strategies to improve social distancing were selected using the Behaviour Change Wheel and discussed in a stakeholder workshop (n = 8 participants). RESULTS: Social distancing enactment was low, with 85% of participants reporting very frequently or always being in close contact with others in communal areas. PPE use was high (88% very frequently or always using PPE in typical working day). Social distancing was associated with Physical Opportunity (e.g., size of physical space), Psychological Capability (e.g., clarity of guidance), and Social Opportunity (e.g., support from managers). Use of PPE was associated with Psychological Capability (e.g., training), Physical Opportunity (e.g., availability), Social Opportunity (e.g., impact on interactions with patients), and Reflective Motivation (e.g., beliefs that PPE is effective). Local champions and team competition were viewed as feasible strategies to improve social distancing. CONCLUSIONS: It is valuable to understand and compare the drivers of individual protective behaviours; when faced with the same level of perceived threat, PPE use was high whereas social distancing was rarely enacted. Identified influences represent targets for intervention strategies in response to future infectious disease outbreaks.

Long term care facilities in England during the COVID-19 pandemic-a scoping review of guidelines, policy and recommendations.

BACKGROUND: The disproportionate effect of COVID-19 on long term care facility (LTCF) residents has highlighted the need for clear, consistent guidance on the management of pandemics in such settings. As research exploring the experiences of LTCFs during the pandemic and the implications of mass hospital discharge, restricting staff movement, and limiting visitation from relatives are emerging, an in-depth review of policies, guidance and recommendations issued during this time could facilitate wider understanding in this area. AIMS: To identify policies, guidance, and recommendations related to LTCF staff and residents, in England issued by the government during the COVID-19 pandemic, developing a timeline of key events and synthesizing the policy aims, recommendations, implementation and intended outcomes. METHOD: A scoping review of publicly available policy documents, guidance, and recommendations related to COVID-19 in LTCFs in England, identified using systematic searches of UK government websites. The main aims, recommendations, implementation and intended outcomes reported in included documents were extracted. Data was analysed using thematic synthesis following a three-stage approach: coding the text, grouping codes into descriptive themes, and development of analytical themes. RESULTS: Thirty-three key policy documents were included in the review. Six areas of recommendations were identified: infection prevention and control, hospital discharge, testing and vaccination, staffing, visitation and continuing routine care. Seven areas of implementation were identified: funding, collaborative working, monitoring and data collection, reducing workload, decision making and leadership, training and technology, and communication. DISCUSSION: LTCFs remain complex settings, and it is imperative that lessons are learned from the experiences during COVID-19 to ensure that future pandemics are managed appropriately. This review has synthesized the policies issued during this time, however, the extent to which such guidance was communicated to LTCFs, and subsequently implemented, in addition to being effective, requires further research. In particular, understanding the secondary effects of such policies and how they can be introduced within the existing challenges inherent to adult social care, need addressing.

When to reinvite initially ineligible populations for targeted lung cancer screening?

INTRODUCTION: Targeted low-dose CT lung cancer screening reduces lung cancer mortality. England's Targeted Lung Health Check programme uses risk prediction tools to determine eligibility for biennial screening among people with a smoking history aged 55-74. Some participants initially ineligible for lung cancer screening will later become eligible with increasing age and ongoing tobacco exposure. It is, therefore, important to understand how many people could qualify for reinvitation, and after how long, to inform implementation of services. METHODS: We prospectively predicted future risk (using Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian trial's risk model (PLCOm2012) and Liverpool Lung Project version 2 (LLPv2) risk models) and time-to-eligibility of 5345 participants to estimate how many would become eligible through the course of a Lung Health Check screening programme for 55-74 years. RESULTS: Approximately a quarter eventually become eligible, with those with the lowest baseline risks unlikely to ever become eligible. Time-to-eligibility is shorter for participants with higher baseline risk, increasing age and ongoing smoking status. At a PLCOm2012 threshold ≥1.51%, 68% of those who continue to smoke become eligible compared with 18% of those who have quit. DISCUSSION: Predicting which participants may become eligible, and when, during a screening programme can help inform reinvitation strategies and service planning. Those with risk scores closer to the eligibility threshold, particularly people who continue to smoke, will reach eligibility in subsequent rounds while those at the lowest risk may be discharged from the programme from the outset.

Effect of the HPV vaccination programme on incidence of cervical cancer and grade 3 cervical intraepithelial neoplasia by socioeconomic deprivation in England: population based observational study.

OBJECTIVES: To replicate previous analyses on the effectiveness of the English human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination programme on incidence of cervical cancer and grade 3 cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN3) using 12 additional months of follow-up, and to investigate effectiveness across levels of socioeconomic deprivation. DESIGN: Observational study. SETTING: England, UK. PARTICIPANTS: Women aged 20-64 years resident in England between January 2006 and June 2020 including 29 968 with a diagnosis of cervical cancer and 335 228 with a diagnosis of CIN3. In England, HPV vaccination was introduced nationally in 2008 and was offered routinely to girls aged 12-13 years, with catch-up campaigns during 2008-10 targeting older teenagers aged <19 years. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Incidence of invasive cervical cancer and CIN3. RESULTS: In England, 29 968 women aged 20-64 years received a diagnosis of cervical cancer and 335 228 a diagnosis of CIN3 between 1 January 2006 and 30 June 2020. In the birth cohort of women offered vaccination routinely at age 12-13 years, adjusted age standardised incidence rates of cervical cancer and CIN3 in the additional 12 months of follow-up (1 July 2019 to 30 June 2020) were, respectively, 83.9% (95% confidence interval (CI) 63.8% to 92.8%) and 94.3% (92.6% to 95.7%) lower than in the reference cohort of women who were never offered HPV vaccination. By mid-2020, HPV vaccination had prevented an estimated 687 (95% CI 556 to 819) cervical cancers and 23 192 (22 163 to 24 220) CIN3s. The highest rates remained among women living in the most deprived areas, but the HPV vaccination programme had a large effect in all five levels of deprivation. In women offered catch-up vaccination, CIN3 rates decreased more in those from the least deprived areas than from the most deprived areas (reductions of 40.6% v 29.6% and 72.8% v 67.7% for women offered vaccination at age 16-18 and 14-16, respectively). The strong downward gradient in cervical cancer incidence from high to low deprivation in the reference unvaccinated group was no longer present among those offered the vaccine. CONCLUSIONS: The high effectiveness of the national HPV vaccination programme previously seen in England continued during the additional 12 months of follow-up. HPV vaccination was associated with a substantially reduced incidence of cervical cancer and CIN3 across all five deprivation groups, especially in women offered routine vaccination.

The laboratory investigation, management, and infection prevention and control of Candida auris: a narrative review to inform the 2024 national guidance update in England.

The emergent fungal pathogen Candida auris is increasingly recognised as an important cause of healthcare-associated infections globally. It is highly transmissible, adaptable, and persistent, resulting in an organism with significant outbreak potential that risks devastating consequences. Progress in the ability to identify C. auris in clinical specimens is encouraging, but laboratory diagnostic capacity and surveillance systems are lacking in many countries. Intrinsic resistance to commonly used antifungals, combined with the ability to rapidly acquire resistance to therapy, substantially restricts treatment options and novel agents are desperately needed. Despite this, outbreaks can be interrupted, and mortality avoided or minimised, through the application of rigorous infection prevention and control measures with an increasing evidence base. This review provides an update on epidemiology, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, risk factors, identification and typing, resistance profiles, treatment, detection of colonisation, and infection prevention and control measures for C. auris. This review has informed a planned 2024 update to the United Kingdom Health Security Agency (UKHSA) guidance on the laboratory investigation, management, and infection prevention and control of Candida auris. A multidisciplinary response is needed to control C. auris transmission in a healthcare setting and should emphasise outbreak preparedness and response, rapid contact tracing and isolation or cohorting of patients and staff, strict hand hygiene and other infection prevention and control measures, dedicated or single-use equipment, appropriate disinfection, and effective communication concerning patient transfers and discharge.

Risk of not being in employment, education or training (NEET) in late adolescence is signalled by school readiness measures at 4-5 years.

BACKGROUND: Not being in employment, education, or training (NEET) is associated with poor health (physical and mental) and social exclusion. We investigated whether England's statutory school readiness measure conducted at 4-5 years provides a risk signal for NEET in late adolescence. METHODS: We identified 8,118 individuals with school readiness measures at 4-5 years and NEET records at 16-17 years using Connected Bradford, a bank of linked routinely collected datasets. Children were categorised as 'school ready' if they reached a 'Good Level of Development' on the Early Years Foundation Stage Profile. We used probit regression and structural equation modelling to investigate the relationship between school readiness and NEET status and whether it primarily relates to academic attainment. RESULTS: School readiness was significantly associated with NEET status. A larger proportion of young people who were not school ready were later NEET (11%) compared to those who were school ready (4%). Most of this effect was attributable to shared relationships with academic attainment, but there was also a direct effect. Measures of deprivation and Special Educational Needs were also strong predictors of NEET status. CONCLUSIONS: NEET risk factors occur early in life. School readiness measures could be used as early indicators of risk, with interventions targeted to prevent the long-term physical and mental health problems associated with NEET, especially in disadvantaged areas. Primary schools are therefore well placed to be public health partners in early intervention strategies.

Compound mortality impacts from extreme temperatures and the COVID-19 pandemic.

Extreme weather and coronavirus-type pandemics are both leading global health concerns. Until now, no study has quantified the compound health consequences of the co-occurrence of them. We estimate the mortality attributable to extreme heat and cold events, which dominate the UK health burden from weather hazards, in England and Wales in the period 2020-2022, during which the COVID-19 pandemic peaked in terms of mortality. We show that temperature-related mortality exceeded COVID-19 mortality by 8% in South West England. Combined, extreme temperatures and COVID-19 led to 19 (95% confidence interval: 16-22 in North West England) to 24 (95% confidence interval: 20-29 in Wales) excess deaths per 100,000 population during heatwaves, and 80 (95% confidence interval: 75-86 in Yorkshire and the Humber) to 127 (95% confidence interval: 123-132 in East of England) excess deaths per 100,000 population during cold snaps. These numbers are at least ~2 times higher than the previous decade. Society must increase preparedness for compound health crises such as extreme weather coinciding with pandemics.

A comparison of frailty measures in population-based data for patients with colorectal cancer.

BACKGROUND: Numerous studies have revealed age-related inequalities in colorectal cancer care. Increasing levels of frailty in an ageing population may be contributing to this, but quantifying frailty in population-based studies is challenging. OBJECTIVE: To assess the feasibility, validity and reliability of the Hospital Frailty Risk Score (HFRS), the Secondary Care Administrative Records Frailty (SCARF) index and the frailty syndromes (FS) measures in a national colorectal cancer cohort. DESIGN: Retrospective population-based study using 136,008 patients with colorectal cancer treated within the English National Health Service. METHODS: Each measure was generated in the dataset to assess their feasibility. The diagnostic codes used in each measure were compared with those in the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI). Validity was assessed using the prevalence of frailty and relationship with 1-year survival. The Brier score and the c-statistic were used to assess performance and discriminative ability of models with included each measure. RESULTS: All measures demonstrated feasibility, validity and reliability. Diagnostic codes used in SCARF and CCI have considerable overlap. Prevalence of frailty determined by each differed; SCARF allocating 55.4% of the population to the lowest risk group compared with 85.1% (HFRS) and 81.2% (FS). HFRS and FS demonstrated the greatest difference in 1-year overall survival between those with the lowest and highest measured levels of frailty. Differences in model performance were marginal. CONCLUSIONS: HFRS, SCARF and FS all have value in quantifying frailty in routine administrative health care datasets. The most suitable measure will depend on the context and requirements of each individual epidemiological study.

Factors associated with engagement in HIV care for young people living with perinatally acquired HIV in England: An exploratory observational cohort study.

Identifying which young people living with perinatally acquired HIV (PHIV) are less likely to engage in care is crucial to allow targeted interventions to support them to attend clinic. We adapted an existing Engagement in Care (EIC) algorithm for adults with HIV in England, for use in young people. We applied it to data from young people with PHIV in the Adolescents and Adults Living with Perinatal HIV (AALPHI) cohort. The algorithm predicts the timing of the next scheduled clinic visit, within 1-6 months of current visit, based on routine clinical data. Follow-up was 12-months from AALPHI baseline interview. Each person-month was classified as engaged in care or not. Logistic regression models (allowing for clustered data) were used to explore baseline characteristics associated with being engaged in care, adjusting for a priori variables (time from interview, sex, age, ethnicity, country of birth). Potential characteristics were across 7 domains: sociodemographic; risk behaviour practices; mental health; cognition; clinic setting; HIV management and experience; and HIV clinical markers. Of 316 young people, 187(59%) were female, 271(86%) of black ethnicity and 184(58%) born abroad. At baseline, median [IQR] age was 17[15-18] years, and 202(69%) had viral load ≤50 copies/ml(c/mL). 87% of 3,585 person-months were classified as engaged in care. Characteristics independently associated with poorer odds of being engaged in care were: Asian/mixed/other ethnicity, vs. black ethnicity (OR 0.44, 95% CI 0.25, 0.78, p = 0.02); ever self-harmed, vs. not (OR 0.55, 95% CI 0.32, 0.95, p = 0.03); on antiretroviral therapy (ART) and self-assessed bad/not so good adherence (OR 0.46, 95% CI 0.25, 0.84) or not on ART (OR 0.64, 95% CI 0.64, 1.21) vs. on ART and good/excellent adherence (p = 0.04)); baseline VL>50c/mL, vs VL≤50c/mL (OR 0.47, 95% CI 0.30, 0.75, p = 0.002). These characteristics can help identify individuals requiring enhanced support to maintain service engagement.

The impact of social determinants on health outcomes in a region in the North of England: a structural equation modelling analysis.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to identify the impact of social determinants of health on physical and mental health outcomes in a UK population. STUDY DESIGN: Structural equation modelling was used to hypothesise a model of relationships between health determinants and outcomes within a region in the North of England using large-scale population survey data (6208 responses). METHODS: We analysed responses from a population survey to assess the influence of a deprivation-based index at the environmental level, education and income on a behaviour index (smoking, alcohol consumption, physical activity, and dietary habits) and the influence of all these factors on self-reported physical health and the influence of the behaviour index and income on mental wellbeing. RESULTS: The proposed model was well supported by the data. Goodness-of-fit statistics, most notably a low value of the root mean square error of approximation (RMSEA), supported the validity of the proposed relationships (RMSEA = 0.054). The model revealed all examined paths to be statistically significant. Income and education were influential in determining an individual's behaviour index score, which, with income was the most important predictor of both the correlated outcomes of physical health and mental wellbeing (P < 0.001 in all cases). CONCLUSIONS: Findings challenge the traditional view of singular causal pathways, emphasising that interventions should consider the underlying influencing socio-economic conditions, which would influence behaviour and therefore physical and mental wellbeing. The extent to which the model is supported by the data, and the statistical significance of individual relationships accentuates the imperative for comprehensive public health strategies that integrate multiple socio-economic factors.

Who dies from venous thromboembolism after hospitalisation for other reasons in England?: a national retrospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is a major cause of morbidity and mortality globally, with hospital-associated thrombosis (HAT) accounting for at least half of VTE. We set out to understand more about deaths from HAT in England, to focus improvement efforts where they are needed most. DESIGN: A retrospective cohort combining death certification and hospital activity data to identify people with an inpatient or day case hospitalisation where no VTE diagnosis was recorded, and who died from VTE in a hospital or within 90 days of discharge, between April 2017 and March 2020. SETTING: All deaths occurring in England and all National Health Service-funded hospital care in England. PARTICIPANTS: After 0.1% of cases were excluded due to duplicate but conflicting records, a cohort of 13 995 deaths remained; 54% were women, and 26% were aged under 70 years. OUTCOME MEASURES: Analysis of age, gender, primary diagnosis, type of admission, specialties and (for day cases) procedure types were preplanned. RESULTS: Only 5% of these deaths followed planned inpatient admissions. Day case admissions preceded 7% of VTE deaths. Emergency inpatient admissions, medical specialties and infection-related primary diagnoses predominated in people who died from VTE after hospitalisation where no VTE diagnosis was recorded. Most deaths occurred in a hospital or within 30 days of discharge. CONCLUSIONS: International efforts to reduce HAT historically focused on planned inpatient admissions. Further initiatives and research to prevent deaths from VTE after hospitalisation should focus on the emergency care pathway where most deaths occurred, with people undergoing day case procedures an important additional focus.