52,000 years of woolly rhinoceros population dynamics reveal extinction mechanisms.

The extinction of the woolly rhinoceros (Coelodonta antiquitatis) at the onset of the Holocene remains an enigma, with conflicting evidence regarding its cause and spatiotemporal dynamics. This partly reflects challenges in determining demographic responses of late Quaternary megafauna to climatic and anthropogenic causal drivers with available genetic and paleontological techniques. Here, we show that elucidating mechanisms of ancient extinctions can benefit from a detailed understanding of fine-scale metapopulation dynamics, operating over many millennia. Using an abundant fossil record, ancient DNA, and high-resolution simulation models, we untangle the ecological mechanisms and causal drivers that are likely to have been integral in the decline and later extinction of the woolly rhinoceros. Our 52,000-y reconstruction of distribution-wide metapopulation dynamics supports a pathway to extinction that began long before the Holocene, when the combination of cooling temperatures and low but sustained hunting by humans trapped woolly rhinoceroses in suboptimal habitats along the southern edge of their range. Modeling indicates that this ecological trap intensified after the end of the last ice age, preventing colonization of newly formed suitable habitats, weakening stabilizing metapopulation processes, triggering the extinction of the woolly rhinoceros in the early Holocene. Our findings suggest that fragmentation and resultant metapopulation dynamics should be explicitly considered in explanations of late Quaternary megafauna extinctions, sending a clarion call to the fragility of the remaining large-bodied grazers restricted to disjunct fragments of poor-quality habitat due to anthropogenic environmental change.

Tree rings reveal the transient risk of extinction hidden inside climate envelope forecasts.

Given the importance of climate in shaping species' geographic distributions, climate change poses an existential threat to biodiversity. Climate envelope modeling, the predominant approach used to quantify this threat, presumes that individuals in populations respond to climate variability and change according to species-level responses inferred from spatial occurrence data-such that individuals at the cool edge of a species' distribution should benefit from warming (the "leading edge"), whereas individuals at the warm edge should suffer (the "trailing edge"). Using 1,558 tree-ring time series of an aridland pine (Pinus edulis) collected at 977 locations across the species' distribution, we found that trees everywhere grow less in warmer-than-average and drier-than-average years. Ubiquitous negative temperature sensitivity indicates that individuals across the entire distribution should suffer with warming-the entire distribution is a trailing edge. Species-level responses to spatial climate variation are opposite in sign to individual-scale responses to time-varying climate for approximately half the species' distribution with respect to temperature and the majority of the species' distribution with respect to precipitation. These findings, added to evidence from the literature for scale-dependent climate responses in hundreds of species, suggest that correlative, equilibrium-based range forecasts may fail to accurately represent how individuals in populations will be impacted by changing climate. A scale-dependent view of the impact of climate change on biodiversity highlights the transient risk of extinction hidden inside climate envelope forecasts and the importance of evolution in rescuing species from extinction whenever local climate variability and change exceeds individual-scale climate tolerances.

Short-term extinction predicted by population viability analysis for a Neotropical salt marsh endemic bird.

Salt marshes pose challenges for the birds that inhabit them, including high rates of nest flooding, tipping, and predation. The impacts of rising sea levels and invasive species further exacerbate these challenges. To assess the urgency of conservation and adequacy of new actions, researchers and wildlife managers may use population viability analyses (PVAs) to identify population trends and major threats. We conducted PVA for Formicivora acutirostris, which is a threatened neotropical bird species endemic to salt marshes. We studied the species' demography in different sectors of an estuary in southern Brazil from 2006 to 2023 and estimated the sex ratio, longevity, productivity, first-year survival, and mortality rates. For a 133-year period, starting in 1990, we modeled four scenarios: (1) pessimistic and (2) optimistic scenarios, including the worst and best values for the parameters; (3) a baseline scenario, with intermediate values; and (4) scenarios under conservation management, with increased recruitment and/or habitat preservation. Projections indicated population decline for all assessment scenarios, with a 100% probability of extinction by 2054 in the pessimistic scenario and no extinction in the optimistic scenario. The conservation scenarios indicated population stability with 16% improvement in productivity, 10% improvement in first-year survival, and stable carrying capacity. The disjunct distribution of the species, with remnants concentrated in a broad interface with arboreal habitats, may seal the population decline by increasing nest predation. The species should be considered conservation dependent, and we recommend assisted colonization, predator control, habitat recovery, and ex situ conservation.

DeepDive: estimating global biodiversity patterns through time using deep learning.

Understanding how biodiversity has changed through time is a central goal of evolutionary biology. However, estimates of past biodiversity are challenged by the inherent incompleteness of the fossil record, even when state-of-the-art statistical methods are applied to adjust estimates while correcting for sampling biases. Here we develop an approach based on stochastic simulations of biodiversity and a deep learning model to infer richness at global or regional scales through time while incorporating spatial, temporal and taxonomic sampling variation. Our method outperforms alternative approaches across simulated datasets, especially at large spatial scales, providing robust palaeodiversity estimates under a wide range of preservation scenarios. We apply our method on two empirical datasets of different taxonomic and temporal scope: the Permian-Triassic record of marine animals and the Cenozoic evolution of proboscideans. Our estimates provide a revised quantitative assessment of two mass extinctions in the marine record and reveal rapid diversification of proboscideans following their expansion out of Africa and a >70% diversity drop in the Pleistocene.

A nuclear genome assembly of an extinct flightless bird, the little bush moa.

We present a draft genome of the little bush moa (Anomalopteryx didiformis)-one of approximately nine species of extinct flightless birds from Aotearoa, New Zealand-using ancient DNA recovered from a fossil bone from the South Island. We recover a complete mitochondrial genome at 249.9× depth of coverage and almost 900 megabases of a male moa nuclear genome at ~4 to 5× coverage, with sequence contiguity sufficient to identify more than 85% of avian universal single-copy orthologs. We describe a diverse landscape of transposable elements and satellite repeats, estimate a long-term effective population size of ~240,000, identify a diverse suite of olfactory receptor genes and an opsin repertoire with sensitivity in the ultraviolet range, show that the wingless moa phenotype is likely not attributable to gene loss or pseudogenization, and identify potential function-altering coding sequence variants in moa that could be synthesized for future functional assays. This genomic resource should support further studies of avian evolution and morphological divergence.

Two Major Extinction Events in the Evolutionary History of Turtles: One Caused by an Asteroid, the Other by Hominins.

AbstractWe live in a time of accelerated biological extinctions that has the potential to mirror past mass extinction events. However, the rarity of mass extinctions and the restructuring of diversity they cause complicate direct comparisons between the current extinction crisis and earlier events. Among animals, turtles (Testudinata) are one of few groups that have both a rich fossil record and sufficiently stable ecological and functional roles to enable meaningful comparisons between the end-Cretaceous mass extinction (∼66 Ma) and the ongoing wave of extinctions. Here we analyze the fossil record of the entire turtle clade and identify two peaks in extinction rates over their evolutionary history. The first coincides with the Cretaceous-Paleogene transition, reflecting patterns previously reported for other taxa. The second major extinction event started in the Pliocene and continues until now. This peak is detectable only for terrestrial turtles and started much earlier in Africa and Eurasia than elsewhere. On the basis of the timing, geography, and functional group of this extinction event, we postulate a link to co-occurring hominins rather than climate change as the cause. These results lend further support to the view that negative biodiversity impacts were already incurred by our ancestors and related lineages and demonstrate the severity of this continued impact through human activities.

Species Diversity and Habitat Fragmentation Per Se: The Influence of Local Extinctions and Species Clustering.

AbstractAnthropogenic fragmentation of habitat is considered to be a critical factor contributing to the decline of species. However, a general consensus on the degree to which habitat loss and what has been called "habitat fragmentation per se" contribute to the loss of species diversity has not yet emerged. For empirical and theoretical reasons the topic has recently attracted renewed attention, thus reviving the "single large or several small" (SLOSS) debate. To study the effect of fragmentation per se, we use a spatially explicit and continuous, competitively neutral simulation model with immigration from a regional pool. The model accounts for the influence of ecological drift and intrafragment species clustering (due to limited dispersal) on local (plot) and global (landscape) diversity. We find that fragmentation increases global diversity but decreases local diversity, prominently so if fragments become more isolated. Cluster formation is a key mechanism reducing local diversity. By adding external disturbance events that lead to the occasional extinction of entire communities in habitat fragments, we show that the combined effect of such extinctions and cluster formation can create nonlinear interactive effects of fragmentation and fragment isolation on diversity patterns. We conclude that while in most cases fragmentation will decrease local and increase landscape diversity, universal predictions concerning the SLOSS debate should be taken with care.

Imbalanced speciation pulses sustain the radiation of mammals.

The evolutionary histories of major clades, including mammals, often comprise changes in their diversification dynamics, but how these changes occur remains debated. We combined comprehensive phylogenetic and fossil information in a new "birth-death diffusion" model that provides a detailed characterization of variation in diversification rates in mammals. We found an early rising and sustained diversification scenario, wherein speciation rates increased before and during the Cretaceous-Paleogene (K-Pg) boundary. The K-Pg mass extinction event filtered out more slowly speciating lineages and was followed by a subsequent slowing in speciation rates rather than rebounds. These dynamics arose from an imbalanced speciation process, with separate lineages giving rise to many, less speciation-prone descendants. Diversity seems to have been brought about by these isolated, fast-speciating lineages, rather than by a few punctuated innovations.

The reorganization of predator-prey networks over 20 million years explains extinction patterns of mammalian carnivores.

Linking the species interactions occurring at the scale of local communities to their potential impact at evolutionary timescales is challenging. Here, we used the high-resolution fossil record of mammals from the Iberian Peninsula to reconstruct a timeseries of trophic networks spanning more than 20 million years and asked whether predator-prey interactions affected regional extinction patterns. We found that, despite small changes in species richness, trophic networks showed long-term trends, gradually losing interactions and becoming sparser towards the present. This restructuring of the ecological networks was driven by the loss of medium-sized herbivores, which reduced prey availability for predators. The decrease in prey availability was associated with predator longevity, such that predators with less available prey had greater extinction risk. These results not only reveal long-term trends in network structure but suggest that prey species richness in ecological communities may shape large scale patterns of extinction and persistence among predators.

The robustness of phylogenetic diversity indices to extinctions.

Phylogenetic diversity indices provide a formal way to apportion evolutionary history amongst living species. Understanding the properties of these measures is key to determining their applicability in conservation biology settings. In this work, we investigate some questions posed in a recent paper by Fischer et al. (Syst Biol 72(3):606-615, 2023). In that paper, it is shown that under certain extinction scenarios, the ranking of the surviving species by their Fair Proportion index scores may be the complete reverse of their ranking beforehand. Our main results here show that this behaviour extends to a large class of phylogenetic diversity indices, including the Equal-Splits index. We also provide a necessary condition for reversals of Fair Proportion rankings to occur on phylogenetic trees whose edge lengths obey the ultrametric constraint. Specific examples of rooted phylogenetic trees displaying these behaviours are given and the impact of our results on the use of phylogenetic diversity indices more generally is discussed.

The influence of climate change on the future distribution of two Thymus species in Iran: MaxEnt model-based prediction.

Within a few decades, the species habitat was reshaped at an alarming rate followed by climate change, leading to mass extinction, especially for sensitive species. Species distribution models (SDMs), which estimate both present and future species distribution, have been extensively developed to investigate the impacts of climate change on species distribution and assess habitat suitability. In the West Asia essential oils of T. daenensis and T. kotschyanus include high amounts of thymol and carvacrol and are commonly used as herbal tea, spice, flavoring agents and medicinal plants. Therefore, this study aimed to model these Thymus species in Iran using the MaxEnt model under two representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) for the years 2050 and 2070. The findings revealed that the mean temperature of the warmest quarter (bio10) was the most significant variable affecting the distribution of T. daenensis. In the case of T. kotschyanus, slope percentage was the primary influencing factor. The MaxEnt modeling also demonstrated excellent performance, as indicated by all the Area Under the Curve (AUC) values exceeding 0.9. Moreover, based on the projections, the two mentioned species are expected to undergo negative area changes in the coming years. These results can serve as a valuable achievement for developing adaptive management strategies aimed at enhancing protection and sustainable utilization in the context of global climate change.

Climate-forced Hg-remobilization associated with fern mutagenesis in the aftermath of the end-Triassic extinction.

The long-term effects of the Central Atlantic Magmatic Province, a large igneous province connected to the end-Triassic mass-extinction (201.5 Ma), remain largely elusive. Here, we document the persistence of volcanic-induced mercury (Hg) pollution and its effects on the biosphere for ~1.3 million years after the extinction event. In sediments recovered in Germany (Schandelah-1 core), we record not only high abundances of malformed fern spores at the Triassic-Jurassic boundary, but also during the lower Jurassic Hettangian, indicating repeated vegetation disturbance and stress that was eccentricity-forced. Crucially, these abundances correspond to increases in sedimentary Hg-concentrations. Hg-isotope ratios (δ202Hg, Δ199Hg) suggest a volcanic source of Hg-enrichment at the Triassic-Jurassic boundary but a terrestrial source for the early Jurassic peaks. We conclude that volcanically injected Hg across the extinction was repeatedly remobilized from coastal wetlands and hinterland areas during eccentricity-forced phases of severe hydrological upheaval and erosion, focusing Hg-pollution in the Central European Basin.

Analysis of long transients and detection of early warning signals of extinction in a class of predator-prey models exhibiting bistable behavior.

In this paper, we develop a method of analyzing long transient dynamics in a class of predator-prey models with two species of predators competing explicitly for their common prey, where the prey evolves on a faster timescale than the predators. In a parameter regime near a singular zero-Hopf bifurcation of the coexistence equilibrium state, we assume that the system under study exhibits bistability between a periodic attractor that bifurcates from the singular Hopf point and another attractor, which could be a periodic attractor or a point attractor, such that the invariant manifolds of the coexistence equilibrium point play central roles in organizing the dynamics. To find whether a solution that starts in a vicinity of the coexistence equilibrium approaches the periodic attractor or the other attractor, we reduce the equations to a suitable normal form, and examine the basin boundary near the singular Hopf point. A key component of our study includes an analysis of the long transient dynamics, characterized by their rapid oscillations with a slow variation in amplitude, by applying a moving average technique. We obtain a set of necessary and sufficient conditions on the initial values of a solution near the coexistence equilibrium to determine whether it lies in the basin of attraction of the periodic attractor. As a result of our analysis, we devise a method of identifying early warning signals, significantly in advance, of a future crisis that could lead to extinction of one of the predators. The analysis is applied to the predator-prey model considered in Sadhu (Discrete Contin Dyn Syst B 26:5251-5279, 2021) and we find that our theory is in good agreement with the numerical simulations carried out for this model.

Global trends and scenarios for terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystem services from 1900 to 2050.

Based on an extensive model intercomparison, we assessed trends in biodiversity and ecosystem services from historical reconstructions and future scenarios of land-use and climate change. During the 20th century, biodiversity declined globally by 2 to 11%, as estimated by a range of indicators. Provisioning ecosystem services increased several fold, and regulating services decreased moderately. Going forward, policies toward sustainability have the potential to slow biodiversity loss resulting from land-use change and the demand for provisioning services while reducing or reversing declines in regulating services. However, negative impacts on biodiversity due to climate change appear poised to increase, particularly in the higher-emissions scenarios. Our assessment identifies remaining modeling uncertainties but also robustly shows that renewed policy efforts are needed to meet the goals of the Convention on Biological Diversity.

Kill wolves to save caribou? Sadly, it seems to work.

Some worry the findings will stall efforts to halt logging-the root cause of caribou population declines.

The positive impact of conservation action.

Governments recently adopted new global targets to halt and reverse the loss of biodiversity. It is therefore crucial to understand the outcomes of conservation actions. We conducted a global meta-analysis of 186 studies (including 665 trials) that measured biodiversity over time and compared outcomes under conservation action with a suitable counterfactual of no action. We find that in two-thirds of cases, conservation either improved the state of biodiversity or at least slowed declines. Specifically, we find that interventions targeted at species and ecosystems, such as invasive species control, habitat loss reduction and restoration, protected areas, and sustainable management, are highly effective and have large effect sizes. This provides the strongest evidence to date that conservation actions are successful but require transformational scaling up to meet global targets.

Colonial-driven extinction of the blue antelope despite genomic adaptation to low population size.

Low genomic diversity is generally indicative of small population size and is considered detrimental by decreasing long-term adaptability.1,2,3,4,5,6 Moreover, small population size may promote gene flow with congeners and outbreeding depression.7,8,9,10,11,12,13 Here, we examine the connection between habitat availability, effective population size (Ne), and extinction by generating a 40× nuclear genome from the extinct blue antelope (Hippotragus leucophaeus). Historically endemic to the relatively small Cape Floristic Region in southernmost Africa,14,15 populations were thought to have expanded and contracted across glacial-interglacial cycles, tracking suitable habitat.16,17,18 However, we found long-term low Ne, unaffected by glacial cycles, suggesting persistence with low genomic diversity for many millennia prior to extinction in ∼AD 1800. A lack of inbreeding, alongside high levels of genetic purging, suggests adaptation to this long-term low Ne and that human impacts during the colonial era (e.g., hunting and landscape transformation), rather than longer-term ecological processes, were central to its extinction. Phylogenomic analyses uncovered gene flow between roan (H. equinus) and blue antelope, as well as between roan and sable antelope (H. niger), approximately at the time of divergence of blue and sable antelope (∼1.9 Ma). Finally, we identified the LYST and ASIP genes as candidates for the eponymous bluish pelt color of the blue antelope. Our results revise numerous aspects of our understanding of the interplay between genomic diversity and evolutionary history and provide the resources for uncovering the genetic basis of this extinct species' unique traits.

Threats to reptiles at global and regional scales.

Reptiles are an important, yet often understudied, taxon in nature conservation. They play a significant role in ecosystems1 and can serve as indicators of environmental health, often responding more rapidly to human pressures than other vertebrate groups.2 At least 21% of reptiles are currently assessed as threatened with extinction by the IUCN.3 However, due to the lack of comprehensive global assessments until recently, they have been omitted from spatial studies addressing conservation or spatial prioritization (e.g., Rosauer et al.,4,5,6,7,8 Fritz and Rahbek,4,5,6,7,8 Farooq et al.,4,5,6,7,8 Meyer et al., 4,5,6,7,8 and Farooq et al.4,5,6,7,8). One important knowledge gap in conservation is the lack of spatially explicit information on the main threats to biodiversity,9 which significantly hampers our ability to respond effectively to the current biodiversity crisis.10,11 In this study, we calculate the probability of a reptile species in a specific location being affected by one of seven biodiversity threats-agriculture, climate change, hunting, invasive species, logging, pollution, and urbanization. We conducted the analysis at a global scale, using a 50 km × 50 km grid, and evaluated the impact of these threats by studying their relationship with the risk of extinction. We find that climate change, logging, pollution, and invasive species are most linked to extinction risk. However, we also show that there is considerable geographical variation in these results. Our study highlights the importance of going beyond measuring the intensity of threats to measuring the impact of these separately for various biogeographical regions of the world, with different historical contingencies, as opposed to a single global analysis treating all regions the same.

Discrimination of ivory from extant and extinct elephant species using Raman spectroscopy: A potential non-destructive technique for combating illegal wildlife trade.

The use of elephant ivory as a commodity is a factor in declining elephant populations. Despite recent worldwide elephant ivory trade bans, mammoth ivory trade remains unregulated. This complicates law enforcement efforts, as distinguishing between ivory from extant and extinct species requires costly, destructive and time consuming methods. Elephant and mammoth ivory mainly consists of dentine, a mineralized connective tissue that contains an organic collagenous component and an inorganic component of calcium phosphate minerals, similar in structure to hydroxyapatite crystals. Raman spectroscopy is a non-invasive laser-based technique that has previously been used for the study of bone and mineral chemistry. Ivory and bone have similar biochemical properties, making Raman spectroscopy a promising method for species identification based on ivory. This study aimed to test the hypothesis that it is possible to identify differences in the chemistry of mammoth and elephant ivory using Raman spectroscopy. Mammoth and elephant tusks were obtained from the Natural History Museum in London, UK. Included in this study were eight samples of ivory from Mammuthus primigenius, two samples of carved ivory bangles from Africa (Loxodonta species), and one cross section of a tusk from Elephas maximus. The ivory was scanned using an inVia Raman micro spectrometer equipped with a x50 objective lens and a 785nm laser. Spectra were acquired using line maps and individual spectral points were acquired randomly or at points of interest on all samples. The data was then analysed using principal component analysis (PCA) with use of an in-house MATLAB script. Univariate analysis of peak intensity ratios of phosphate to amide I and III peaks, and carbonate to phosphate peaks showed statistical differences (p<0.0001) in the average peak intensity ratios between Mammuthus primigenius, Loxodonta spp. and Elephas maximus. Full width at half maximum hight (FWHM)analysis of the phosphate peak demonstrated higher crystal maturity of Mammuthus primigenius compared to living elephant species. The results of the study have established that spectra acquired by Raman spectroscopy can be separated into distinct classes through PCA. In conclusion, this study has shown that well-preserved mammoth and elephant ivory has the potential to be characterized using Raman spectroscopy, providing a promising method for species identification. The results of this study will be valuable in developing quick and non-destructive methods for the identification of ivory, which will have direct applications in archaeology and the regulation of international trade.