Vulnerability of maize production under future climate change: possible adaptation strategies.

BACKGROUND: Climate change can affect the productivity and geographic distribution of crops. Therefore, evaluation of adaptive management options is crucial in dealing with negative impacts of climate change. The objectives of this study were to simulate the impacts of climate change on maize production in the north-east of Iran. Moreover, vulnerability index which indicated that how much of the crop yield loss is related to the drought was computed for each location to identify where adaptation and mitigation strategies are effective. Different sowing dates were also applied as an adaptation approach to decrease the negative impacts of climate change in study area. RESULTS: The results showed that the maize yield would decline during the 21st century from -2.6% to -82% at all study locations in comparison with the baseline. The result of vulnerability index also indicated that using the adaptation strategies could be effective in all of the study areas. Using different sowing dates as an adaptation approach showed that delaying the sowing date will be advantageous in order to obtain higher yield in all study locations in future. CONCLUSION: This study provided insight regarding the climate change impacts on maize production and the efficacy of adaptation strategies. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry.

Towards a functional-structural plant model of cut-rose: simulation of light environment, light absorption, photosynthesis and interference with the plant structure.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The production system of cut-rose (Rosa × hybrida) involves a complex combination of plant material, management practice and environment. Plant structure is determined by bud break and shoot development while having an effect on local light climate. The aim of the present study is to cover selected aspects of the cut-rose system using functional-structural plant modelling (FSPM), in order to better understand processes contributing to produce quality and quantity. METHODS: The model describes the production system in three dimensions, including a virtual greenhouse environment with the crop, light sources (diffuse and direct sun light and lamps) and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) sensors. The crop model is designed as a multiscaled FSPM with plant organs (axillary buds, leaves, internodes, flowers) as basic units, and local light interception and photosynthesis within each leaf. A Monte-Carlo light model was used to compute the local light climate for leaf photosynthesis, the latter described using a biochemical rate model. KEY RESULTS: The model was able to reproduce PAR measurements taken at different canopy positions, different times of the day and different light regimes. Simulated incident and absorbed PAR as well as net assimilation rate in upright and bent shoots showed characteristic spatial and diurnal dynamics for different common cultivation scenarios. CONCLUSIONS: The model of cut-rose presented allowed the creation of a range of initial structures thanks to interactive rules for pruning, cutting and bending. These static structures can be regarded as departure points for the dynamic simulation of production of flower canes. Furthermore, the model was able to predict local (per leaf) light absorption and photosynthesis. It can be used to investigate the physiology of ornamental plants, and provide support for the decisions of growers and consultants.