Impact of oil prices, the U.S interest rates on Turkey's real estate market. New evidence from combined co-integration and bootstrap ARDL tests.

The research aims to provide new empirical evidence by testing the impact of the external shocks namely: oil prices and the U.S interest rate on Turkey's real estate market by using three techniques of co-integration tests namely: the newly developed bootstrap autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) testing approach as proposed by (McNown et al. 2018), the new approach involving the Bayer-Hanck (2013) combined co-integration test, Hatemi-J (2008) co-integration testing approach. The ARDL model is utilized to explore the relationship between the variables. The findings show that the oil prices have a positive impact on Turkey's real estate market, the results confirm that there is a significant impact of oil prices on Turkey's real estate market through the domestic interest rate. Furthermore, the results demonstrated that there is a significant spillover influence of the U.S. interest rates on Turkey's real estate market through oil prices and domestic interest rates. This study suggests that the following factors led to increasing the sensitivity and volatility of the Turkish real estate market to oil prices and the U.S. interest rate fluctuations: the presence of economic interdependence between the USA and Turkey, and the majority of the external debts and the reserve currency in Turkey are composed in the USD, and Turkey's oil imports hit record high in last years. Finally, this article suggests that policymakers in Turkey should pay close attention to the effects of external shocks namely the oil prices and U.S. interest rates on Turkish markets to maintain economic and financial stability.

Do higher fuel prices help reduce road traffic accidents?

Road traffic accidents have decreased in most developed nations over the last decade. This has been attributed to improvements in vehicle and road design, medical technology and care, and driver education and training. Recent evidence however indicates that fuel price changes also have a significant impact on road traffic accidents through other mediating factors such as reductions in driver exposure through less car travel and more fuel-efficient driving e.g. speed reduction on high-speed roads. So far though, no study has examined the effects of changing fuel prices on road traffic accidents in a country such as Great Britain where fuel prices are kept artificially high for public policy reasons. Consequently, this study was designed to quantify the effects of fuel price on road traffic accident frequency through changes and adjustments in travel behaviour. For this purpose, weekly fuel prices (between 2005-2015) have been used to study the effects on road traffic accidents using the Prais-Winsten model of first order autoregressive (AR1) and the Box and Jenkins seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average models (SARIMA). The study found that with every 1% increase in fuel price there is a 0.4% reduction in the number of fatal road traffic accidents. In light of this, one concern raised was that recent UK government plans to phase out petrol and diesel vehicles by 2040 may also risk a rise in fatal road traffic accidents, and hence this will need to be addressed.

Techno-economic analysis of microalgae-based liquid fuels production from wastewater via hydrothermal liquefaction and hydroprocessing.

In this work, a conceptual process design of wastewater-based algal biofuels production through hydrothermal liquefaction and hydroprocessing is proposed. Then a steady-state process simulation is performed to calculate the mass and energy analysis of the whole process for the production of hydrocarbons such as diesel, jet, gasoline, and H2. A discounted cash flow analysis is used to calculate a minimum selling price (MSP) of the hydrocarbon fuels. The MSP of the hydrocarbon fuels is found at US$4.3/GGE. This value is comparable with the previously reported value in the literature. In addition, the sensitivity study is carried out to study the influence of both processes and economic parameters on the minimum selling price (MSP) of the hydrocarbon fuels.

Gasoline prices and economic policy uncertainty: what causes what, and why does it matter? Evidence from 18 selected countries.

In this paper, we examine asymmetric causal relationships between gasoline prices and economic policy uncertainty in a panel of 18 countries over the period 1998-2017, using the recently introduced panel causality approach of Hatemi et al (Appl Econ, 48:2301-2308, 2016) that accounts for asymmetric dynamics and is robust to both cross-sectional dependence and slope heterogeneity. Empirical findings reveal asymmetric causal relationships between gasoline prices and economic policy uncertainty in the sampled countries. Specifically, results show that economic policy uncertainty and gasoline prices have positive and negative asymmetric bidirectional causal relations in 13 countries. No feedback causality was detected between gasoline prices and economic policy uncertainty in 5 countries. Based on the results, we infer that positive and negative asymmetric causal relations exist between economic policy uncertainty and gasoline price, with attendant policy implications in sampled regions.

Markov-switching vector autoregressive neural networks and sensitivity analysis of environment, economic growth and petrol prices.

The paper aims at evaluating the nonlinear and complex relations between CO2 emissions, economic development, and petrol prices to obtain new insights regarding the shape of the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) in the USA and in the UK in addition to introducing a newly proposed nonlinear approach. Within this respect, the paper has three purposes: the first one is to combine the multilayer perceptron neural networks (MLP) with Markov-switching vector autoregressive (MS-VAR) type nonlinear models to obtain the MS-VAR-MLP model. The second is to utilize one of the largest datasets in the literature covering the 1871-2016 period, a long span of data starting from the late eighteenth century. Since the emission, economic development, and petrol price relation is subject to nonlinearity and trajectory changes due to many historical events, the development of the MS-VAR-MLP model is a necessity to contribute to the ongoing debate regarding the shape of the EKC curve and the stability of the relation. The third purpose is to develop the MS-VAR-MLP-based regime-dependent sensitivity analysis, which eases the visual interpretation of the nonlinear causal relationships, which are allowed to have asymmetric interactions in different phases of the expansionary and recessionary periods of the business cycles. Our results provide clear deviations from the findings in the literature: (i) the shape of the EKC curve cannot be assumed to be stable and is subject to regime dependency, nonlinearity, and magnitude dependency; (ii) the forecast results suggest that incorporation of regime switching and neural networks provide significant improvement over the MS-VAR counterpart; and (iii) for both USA and UK and for the 1871-2016 period, the positive impacts of economic growth on emissions cannot be rejected for the majority of the phases of the business cycles; however, the magnitude of this effect is at various degrees. In addition, the incorporation of petrol price provides significant findings considering its effects on emission and economic growth rates. The analysis suggest clear deviations from the expected shape of the EKC curve and puts forth the necessity to utilize more complex empirical methodologies to evaluate the EKC since the emissions-economic development relation is more complex than it was assumed. Following these findings, several policy recommendations are provided. Lastly, the proposed MS-VAR-MLP methodology is compared with the MS-VAR model and various advantages and disadvantages are enumerated.

Utilization of waste cooking oil as an alternative fuel for Turkey.

This study is based on three essential considerations concerning biodiesel obtained from waste cooking oil: diesel engine emissions of biodiesel produced from waste cooking oil, its potential in Turkey, and policies of the Turkish government about environmentally friendly alternative fuels. Emission tests have been realized with 35.8 kW, four-cylinder, four-stroke, direct injection diesel tractor engine. Test results are compared with Euro non-road emission standards for diesel fuel and five different blends of biodiesel production from waste cooking oil. The results of the experimental study show that the best blends are B10 and B20 as they show the lowest emission level. The other dimensions of the study include potential analysis of waste cooking oil as diesel fuels, referring to fuel price policies applied in the past, and proposed future policies about the same issues. It was also outlined some conclusions and recommendations in connection with recycling of waste oils as alternative fuels.

The impact of retail beverage service training and social host laws on adolescents' DUI rates in San Diego County, California.

INTRODUCTION: Driving under the influence (DUI) citations are still a serious concern among drivers aged 16-20 years and have been shown to be related to increased risk of fatal and nonfatal crashes. A battery of laws and policies has been enacted to address this concern. Though numerous studies have evaluated these policies, there is still a need for comprehensive policy evaluations that take into account a variety of contextual factors. Previous effort by this research team examined the impact of 20 minimum legal drinking age-21 laws in the state of California, as they impacted alcohol-related crash rates among drivers under 21 years of age while at the same time accounting for alcohol and gas taxes, unemployment rates, sex distribution among drivers, and sobriety checkpoints. The current research seeks to expand this evaluation to the county level (San Diego County). More specifically, we evaluate the impact of measures subject to county control such as retail beverage service (RBS) laws and social host (SH) laws, as well as media coverage, city employment, alcohol outlet density, number of sworn officers, alcohol consumption, and taxation policies, to determine the most effective point of intervention for communities seeking to reduce underage DUI citations. METHODS: Annual DUI citation data (2000 to 2013), RBS and SH policies, and city-wide demographic, economic, and environmental information were collected and applied to each of the 20 cities in San Diego County, California. A structural equation model was fit to estimate the relative contribution of the variables of interest to DUI citation rates. RESULTS: Alcohol consumption and alcohol outlet density both demonstrated a significant increase in DUI rates, whereas RBS laws, SH laws, alcohol tax rates, media clusters, gas tax rates, and unemployment rates demonstrated significant decreases in DUI rates. CONCLUSIONS: At the county level, although RBS laws, SH laws, and media efforts were found to contribute to a significant reduction in DUI rates, the largest significant contributors to reducing DUI rates were alcohol and gas taxation rates. Policy makers interested in reducing DUI rates among teenagers should examine these variables within their specific communities and consider conducting community-specific research to determine the best way to do so. Future efforts should be made to develop models that represent specific communities who are interested in reducing DUI rates among drivers aged 16-20 years.

Economic and statistical perspectives on traffic safety in Louisiana, 2005-2015.

INTRODUCTION: This study examine and applies recent empirical evidence from Mississippi and Alabama on fatal crashes and its relationship with gasoline prices and alcohol consumptions using the Louisiana Crash Data Reports between January 2005 and December 2015. METHOD: The negative binomial models is the preferred specification for the Louisiana Crash Data. The marginal effects and related elasticities were calculated to facilitate the interpretation of the results. RESULTS: Findings suggest that higher gasoline prices reduce fatalities among young drivers. A fewer number of young drivers on the roads are believed to reduce the likelihood of fatal crashes. Underage drinking is still prominent in Louisiana. Extreme temperatures are positively associated with youth and other types of fatal crashes. PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS: This study highlights a huge toll on society in terms of social and economic costs, wealth destruction, and unfulfilled potential of the deceased or incapacitated.

Impacts and mitigation of excess diesel-related NOx emissions in 11 major vehicle markets.

Vehicle emissions contribute to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and tropospheric ozone air pollution, affecting human health, crop yields and climate worldwide. On-road diesel vehicles produce approximately 20 per cent of global anthropogenic emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx), which are key PM2.5 and ozone precursors. Regulated NOx emission limits in leading markets have been progressively tightened, but current diesel vehicles emit far more NOx under real-world operating conditions than during laboratory certification testing. Here we show that across 11 markets, representing approximately 80 per cent of global diesel vehicle sales, nearly one-third of on-road heavy-duty diesel vehicle emissions and over half of on-road light-duty diesel vehicle emissions are in excess of certification limits. These excess emissions (totalling 4.6 million tons) are associated with about 38,000 PM2.5- and ozone-related premature deaths globally in 2015, including about 10 per cent of all ozone-related premature deaths in the 28 European Union member states. Heavy-duty vehicles are the dominant contributor to excess diesel NOx emissions and associated health impacts in almost all regions. Adopting and enforcing next-generation standards (more stringent than Euro 6/VI) could nearly eliminate real-world diesel-related NOx emissions in these markets, avoiding approximately 174,000 global PM2.5- and ozone-related premature deaths in 2040. Most of these benefits can be achieved by implementing Euro VI standards where they have not yet been adopted for heavy-duty vehicles.

On the road to recovery: Gasoline content regulations and child health.

Gasoline content regulations are designed to curb pollution and improve health, but their impact on health has not been quantified. By exploiting both the timing of regulation and spatial variation in children's exposure to highways, I estimate the effect of gasoline content regulation on pollution and child health. The introduction of cleaner-burning gasoline in California in 1996 reduced asthma admissions by 8% in high exposure areas. Reductions are greatest for areas downwind from highways and heavy traffic areas. Stringent gasoline content regulations can improve child health, and may diminish existing health disparities.

Less money, more problems: How changes in disposable income affect child maltreatment.

A number of research studies have documented an association between child maltreatment and family income. Yet, little is known about the specific types of economic shocks that affect child maltreatment rates. The paucity of information is troubling given that more than six million children are reported for maltreatment annually in the U.S. alone. This study examines whether an exogenous shock to families' disposable income, a change in the price of gasoline, predicts changes in child maltreatment. The findings of a fixed-effects regression show that increases in state-level gas prices are associated with increases in state-level child maltreatment referral rates, even after controlling for demographic and other economic variables. The results are robust to the manner of estimation; random-effects and mixed-effects regressions produce similar estimates. The findings suggest that fluctuations in the price of gas may have important consequences for children.

Air Quality and Health Impacts of Future Ethanol Production and Use in São Paulo State, Brazil.

It is often argued that liquid biofuels are cleaner than fossil fuels, and therefore better for human health, however, the evidence on this issue is still unclear. Brazil's high uptake of ethanol and role as a major producer makes it the most appropriate case study to assess the merits of different biofuel policies. Accordingly, we modeled the impact on air quality and health of two future fuel scenarios in São Paulo State: a business-as-usual scenario where ethanol production and use proceeds according to government predictions and a counterfactual scenario where ethanol is frozen at 2010 levels and future transport fuel demand is met with gasoline. The population-weighted exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone was 3.0 µg/m³ and 0.3 ppb lower, respectively, in 2020 in the scenario emphasizing gasoline compared with the business-as-usual (ethanol) scenario. The lower exposure to both pollutants in the gasoline scenario would result in the population living 1100 additional life-years in the first year, and if sustained, would increase to 40,000 life-years in year 20 and continue to rise. Without additional measures to limit emissions, increasing the use of ethanol in Brazil could lead to higher air pollution-related population health burdens when compared to policy that prioritizes gasoline.

The Association of Gasoline Prices With Hospital Utilization and Costs for Motorcycle and Nonmotorcycle Motor Vehicle Injuries in the United States.

OBJECTIVES: This study examined the association between gasoline prices and hospitalizations for motorcycle and nonmotorcycle motor vehicle crash (MVC) injuries. METHODS: Data on inpatient hospitalizations were obtained from the 2001 to 2010 Nationwide Inpatient Sample. Panel feasible generalized least squares models were used to estimate the effects of monthly inflation-adjusted gasoline prices on hospitalization rates for MVC injuries and to predict the impact of increasing gasoline taxes. RESULTS: On the basis of the available data, a $1.00 increase in the gasoline tax was associated with an estimated 8348 fewer annual hospitalizations for nonmotorcycle MVC injuries, and reduced hospital costs by $143 million. However, the increase in the gasoline tax was also associated with an estimated 3574 more annual hospitalizations for motorcycle crash injuries, and extended hospital costs by $73 million. CONCLUSIONS: This analysis of some existing data suggest that the increased utilization and costs of hospitalization from motorcycle crash injuries associated with an increase in the price of gasoline are likely to substantially offset reductions in nonmotorcycle MVC injuries. A policy decision to increase the gasoline tax could improve traffic safety if the increased tax is paired with public health interventions to improve motorcycle safety.

Improvement of the environmental and operational characteristics of vehicles through decreasing the motor fuel density.

The environmental and operational characteristics of motor transport, one of the main consumers of motor fuel and source of toxic emissions, soot, and greenhouse gases, are determined to a large extent by the fuel quality which is characterized by many parameters. Fuel density is one of these parameters and it can serve as an indicator of fuel quality. It has been theoretically substantiated that an increased density of motor fuel has a negative impact both on the environmental and operational characteristics of motor transport. The use of fuels with a high density leads to an increase in carbonization within the engine, adversely affecting the vehicle performance and increasing environmental pollution. A program of technological measures targeted at reducing the density of the fuel used was offered. It includes a solution to the problem posed by changes in the refining capacities ratio and the temperature range of gasoline and diesel fuel boiling, by introducing fuel additives and adding butanes to the gasoline. An environmental tax has been developed which allows oil refineries to have a direct impact on the production of fuels with improved environmental performance, taking into account the need to minimize the density of the fuel within a given category of quality.

Stochastic techno-economic evaluation of cellulosic biofuel pathways.

This study evaluates the economic feasibility and stochastic dominance rank of eight cellulosic biofuel production pathways (including gasification, pyrolysis, liquefaction, and fermentation) under technological and economic uncertainty. A techno-economic assessment based financial analysis is employed to derive net present values and breakeven prices for each pathway. Uncertainty is investigated and incorporated into fuel prices and techno-economic variables: capital cost, conversion technology yield, hydrogen cost, natural gas price and feedstock cost using @Risk, a Palisade Corporation software. The results indicate that none of the eight pathways would be profitable at expected values under projected energy prices. Fast pyrolysis and hydroprocessing (FPH) has the lowest breakeven fuel price at 3.11$/gallon of gasoline equivalent (0.82$/liter of gasoline equivalent). With the projected energy prices, FPH investors could expect a 59% probability of loss. Stochastic dominance is done based on return on investment. Most risk-averse decision makers would prefer FPH to other pathways.

Safer Roads Owing to Higher Gasoline Prices: How Long It Takes.

OBJECTIVES: We investigated how much time passes before gasoline price changes affect traffic crashes. METHODS: We systematically examined 2004 to 2012 Mississippi traffic crash data by age, gender, and race. Control variables were unemployment rate, seat belt use, alcohol consumption, climate, and temporal and seasonal variations. RESULTS: We found a positive association between higher gasoline prices and safer roads. Overall, gasoline prices affected crashes 9 to 10 months after a price change. This finding was generally consistent across age, gender, and race, with some exceptions. For those aged 16 to 19 years, gasoline price increases had an immediate (although statistically weak) effect and a lagged effect, but crashes involving those aged 25 to 34 years was seemingly unaffected by price changes. For older individuals (≥ 75 years), the lagged effect was stronger and lasted longer than did that of other age groups. CONCLUSIONS: The results have important health policy implications for using gasoline prices and taxes to improve traffic safety.

Evaluating the Effects of Aromatics Content in Gasoline on Gaseous and Particulate Matter Emissions from SI-PFI and SIDI Vehicles.

We assessed the emissions response of a fleet of seven light-duty gasoline vehicles for gasoline fuel aromatic content while operating over the LA92 driving cycle. The test fleet consisted of model year 2012 vehicles equipped with spark-ignition (SI) and either port fuel injection (PFI) or direct injection (DI) technology. Three gasoline fuels were blended to meet a range of total aromatics targets (15%, 25%, and 35% by volume) while holding other fuel properties relatively constant within specified ranges, and a fourth fuel was formulated to meet a 35% by volume total aromatics target but with a higher octane number. Our results showed statistically significant increases in carbon monoxide, nonmethane hydrocarbon, particulate matter (PM) mass, particle number, and black carbon emissions with increasing aromatics content for all seven vehicles tested. Only one vehicle showed a statistically significant increase in total hydrocarbon emissions. The monoaromatic hydrocarbon species that were evaluated showed increases with increasing aromatic content in the fuel. Changes in fuel composition had no statistically significant effect on the emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx), formaldehyde, or acetaldehyde. A good correlation was also found between the PM index and PM mass and number emissions for all vehicle/fuel combinations with the total aromatics group being a significant contributor to the total PM index followed by naphthalenes and indenes.

Techno-economic analysis of advanced biofuel production based on bio-oil gasification.

This paper evaluates the economic feasibility of an integrated production pathway combining fast pyrolysis and bio-oil gasification. The conversion process is simulated with Aspen Plus® for a 2000 metric ton per day facility. Techno-economic analysis of this integrated pathway has been conducted. A total capital investment of $510 million has been estimated and the minimum fuel selling price (MSP) is $5.59 per gallon of gasoline equivalent. The sensitivity analysis shows that the MSP is most sensitive to internal rate of return, fuel yield, biomass feedstock cost, and fixed capital investment. Monte-Carlo simulation shows that MSP for bio-oil gasification would be more than $6/gal with a probability of 0.24, which indicates this pathway is still at high risk with current economic and technical situation.