Creating an interactive map visualising the geographic variations of the burden of diabetes to inform policymaking: An example from a cohort study in Tasmania, Australia.

OBJECTIVES: To visualise the geographic variations of diabetes burden and identify areas where targeted interventions are needed. METHODS: Using diagnostic criteria supported by hospital codes, 51,324 people with diabetes were identified from a population-based dataset during 2004-2017 in Tasmania, Australia. An interactive map visualising geographic distribution of diabetes prevalence, mortality rates, and healthcare costs in people with diabetes was generated. The cluster and outlier analysis was performed based on statistical area level 2 (SA2) to identify areas with high (hot spot) and low (cold spot) diabetes burden. RESULTS: There were geographic variations in diabetes burden across Tasmania, with highest age-adjusted prevalence (6.1%), excess cost ($2627), and annual costs per person ($5982) in the West and Northwest. Among 98 SA2 areas, 16 hot spots and 25 cold spots for annual costs, and 10 hot spots and 10 cold spots for diabetes prevalence were identified (p<0.05). 15/16 (94%) and 6/10 (60%) hot spots identified were in the West and Northwest. CONCLUSIONS: We have developed a method to graphically display important diabetes outcomes for different geographical areas. IMPLICATIONS FOR PUBLIC HEALTH: The method presented in our study could be applied to any other diseases, regions, and countries where appropriate data are available to identify areas where interventions are needed to improve diabetes outcomes.

Evaluating Methods for Mapping Historical Redlining to Census Tracts for Health Equity Research.

Neighborhood characteristics including housing status can profoundly influence health. Recently, increasing attention has been paid to present-day impacts of "redlining," or historic area classifications that indicated less desirable (redlined) areas subject to decreased investment. Scholarship of redlining and health is emerging; limited guidance exists regarding optimal approaches to measuring historic redlining in studies of present-day health outcomes. We evaluated how different redlining approaches (map alignment methods) influence associations between redlining and health outcomes. We first identified 11 existing redlining map alignment methods and their 37 logical extensions, then merged these 48 map alignment methods with census tract life expectancy data to construct 9696 linear models of each method and life expectancy for all 202 redlined cities. We evaluated each model's statistical significance and R2 values and compared changes between historical and contemporary geographies and populations using Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE). RMSE peaked with a normal distribution at 0.175, indicating persistent difference between historical and contemporary geographies and populations. Continuous methods with low thresholds provided higher neighborhood coverage. Weighting methods had more significant associations, while high threshold methods had higher R2 values. In light of these findings, we recommend continuous methods that consider contemporary population distributions and mapping overlap for studies of redlining and health. We developed an R application {holcmapr} to enable map alignment method comparison and easier method selection.

Climate velocities and species tracking in global mountain regions.

Mountain ranges contain high concentrations of endemic species and are indispensable refugia for lowland species that are facing anthropogenic climate change1,2. Forecasting biodiversity redistribution hinges on assessing whether species can track shifting isotherms as the climate warms3,4. However, a global analysis of the velocities of isotherm shifts along elevation gradients is hindered by the scarcity of weather stations in mountainous regions5. Here we address this issue by mapping the lapse rate of temperature (LRT) across mountain regions globally, both by using satellite data (SLRT) and by using the laws of thermodynamics to account for water vapour6 (that is, the moist adiabatic lapse rate (MALRT)). By dividing the rate of surface warming from 1971 to 2020 by either the SLRT or the MALRT, we provide maps of vertical isotherm shift velocities. We identify 17 mountain regions with exceptionally high vertical isotherm shift velocities (greater than 11.67 m per year for the SLRT; greater than 8.25 m per year for the MALRT), predominantly in dry areas but also in wet regions with shallow lapse rates; for example, northern Sumatra, the Brazilian highlands and southern Africa. By linking these velocities to the velocities of species range shifts, we report instances of close tracking in mountains with lower climate velocities. However, many species lag behind, suggesting that range shift dynamics would persist even if we managed to curb climate-change trajectories. Our findings are key for devising global conservation strategies, particularly in the 17 high-velocity mountain regions that we have identified.

Examining rehabilitation access disparities: an integrated analysis of electronic health record data and population characteristics through bivariate choropleth mapping.

BACKGROUND: Despite efforts to view electronic health records (EHR) data through an equity lens, crucial contextual information regarding patients' social environments remains limited. Integrating EHR data and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) technology can give deeper insights into the relationships between patients' social environments, health outcomes, and geographic factors. This study aims to identify regions with the fastest and slowest access to outpatient physical therapy services using bivariate choropleth maps to provide contextual insights that may contribute to health disparity in access. METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort study of patients' access timelines for the first visit to outpatient physical therapy services (n = 10,363). The three timelines evaluated were (1) referral-to-scheduled appointment time, (2) scheduled appointment to first visit time, and (3) referral to first visit time. Hot and coldspot analyses (CI 95%) determined the fastest and slowest access times with patient-level characteristics and bivariate choropleth maps that were developed to visualize associations between access patterns and disadvantaged areas using Area Deprivation Index scores. Data were collected between January 1, 2016 and January 1, 2020. EHR data were geocoded via GIS technology to calculate geospatial statistics (Gi∗ statistic from ArcGIS Pro) in an urban area. RESULTS: Statistically significant differences were found for all three access timelines between coldspot (i.e., fast access group) and hotspot (i.e., slow access group) comparisons (p < .05). The hotspot regions had higher deprivation scores; higher proportions of residents who were older, privately insured, female, lived further from clinics; and a higher proportion of Black patients with orthopaedic diagnoses compared to the coldspot regions. CONCLUSIONS: Our study identified and described local areas with higher densities of patients that experienced longer access times to outpatient physical therapy services. Integration of EHR and GIS data is a more robust method to identify health disparities in access to care. With this approach, we can better understand the intricate interplay between social, economic, and environmental factors contributing to health disparities in access to care.

Latitudinal patterns in stabilizing density dependence of forest communities.

Numerous studies have shown reduced performance in plants that are surrounded by neighbours of the same species1,2, a phenomenon known as conspecific negative density dependence (CNDD)3. A long-held ecological hypothesis posits that CNDD is more pronounced in tropical than in temperate forests4,5, which increases community stabilization, species coexistence and the diversity of local tree species6,7. Previous analyses supporting such a latitudinal gradient in CNDD8,9 have suffered from methodological limitations related to the use of static data10-12. Here we present a comprehensive assessment of latitudinal CNDD patterns using dynamic mortality data to estimate species-site-specific CNDD across 23 sites. Averaged across species, we found that stabilizing CNDD was present at all except one site, but that average stabilizing CNDD was not stronger toward the tropics. However, in tropical tree communities, rare and intermediate abundant species experienced stronger stabilizing CNDD than did common species. This pattern was absent in temperate forests, which suggests that CNDD influences species abundances more strongly in tropical forests than it does in temperate ones13. We also found that interspecific variation in CNDD, which might attenuate its stabilizing effect on species diversity14,15, was high but not significantly different across latitudes. Although the consequences of these patterns for latitudinal diversity gradients are difficult to evaluate, we speculate that a more effective regulation of population abundances could translate into greater stabilization of tropical tree communities and thus contribute to the high local diversity of tropical forests.

Mutualisms weaken the latitudinal diversity gradient among oceanic islands.

The latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG) dominates global patterns of diversity1,2, but the factors that underlie the LDG remain elusive. Here we use a unique global dataset3 to show that vascular plants on oceanic islands exhibit a weakened LDG and explore potential mechanisms for this effect. Our results show that traditional physical drivers of island biogeography4-namely area and isolation-contribute to the difference between island and mainland diversity at a given latitude (that is, the island species deficit), as smaller and more distant islands experience reduced colonization. However, plant species with mutualists are underrepresented on islands, and we find that this plant mutualism filter explains more variation in the island species deficit than abiotic factors. In particular, plant species that require animal pollinators or microbial mutualists such as arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi contribute disproportionately to the island species deficit near the Equator, with contributions decreasing with distance from the Equator. Plant mutualist filters on species richness are particularly strong at low absolute latitudes where mainland richness is highest, weakening the LDG of oceanic islands. These results provide empirical evidence that mutualisms, habitat heterogeneity and dispersal are key to the maintenance of high tropical plant diversity and mediate the biogeographic patterns of plant diversity on Earth.

Temporal analysis and spatial distribution of acquired syphilis in the state of Mato Grosso, Brazil, 2010-2021: an ecological study.

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the temporal trend and the spatial distribution of acquired syphilis in Mato Grosso, Brazil, between 2010 and 2021. METHODS: This was an ecological study using notifications of acquired syphilis held on the Notifiable Health Conditions Information System. Detection rates were calculated by health macro-region and three-year periods (2010-2012, 2013-2015, 2016-2018, 2019-2021). The jointpoint method was used to calculate annual percentage change (APC). Thematic maps of Bayesian rates were built and distribution was analyzed using Local Moran. RESULTS: The detection rate increased from 16.2 per 100,000 inhabitants in the first three-year period (2010-2012) to 70.0 in the last three-year period (2019-2021). The Central-North macro-region had the highest rate in the last three years (94.3/100,000 inhab.), while the highest upward trend occurred in the Central-Northwest macro-region, from 2013 to 2018 (APC = 50.2; 95%CI 26.3;78.6). There was an increase in Bayesian rates in most municipalities. CONCLUSION: There was a trend towards an increase in acquired syphilis, especially in the last two three-year periods.

Satellite mapping reveals extensive industrial activity at sea.

The world's population increasingly relies on the ocean for food, energy production and global trade1-3, yet human activities at sea are not well quantified4,5. We combine satellite imagery, vessel GPS data and deep-learning models to map industrial vessel activities and offshore energy infrastructure across the world's coastal waters from 2017 to 2021. We find that 72-76% of the world's industrial fishing vessels are not publicly tracked, with much of that fishing taking place around South Asia, Southeast Asia and Africa. We also find that 21-30% of transport and energy vessel activity is missing from public tracking systems. Globally, fishing decreased by 12 ± 1% at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and had not recovered to pre-pandemic levels by 2021. By contrast, transport and energy vessel activities were relatively unaffected during the same period. Offshore wind is growing rapidly, with most wind turbines confined to small areas of the ocean but surpassing the number of oil structures in 2021. Our map of ocean industrialization reveals changes in some of the most extensive and economically important human activities at sea.

A unified explanation for the morphology of raised peatlands.

Raised peatlands, or bogs, are gently mounded landforms that are composed entirely of organic matter1-4 and store the most carbon per area of any terrestrial ecosystem5. The shapes of bogs are critically important because their domed morphology4,6,7 accounts for much of the carbon that bogs store and determines how they will respond to interventions8,9 to stop greenhouse gas emissions and fires after anthropogenic drainage10-13. However, a general theory to infer the morphology of bogs is still lacking4,6,7. Here we show that an equation based on the processes universal to bogs explains their morphology across biomes, from Alaska, through the tropics, to New Zealand. In contrast to earlier models of bog morphology that attempted to describe only long-term equilibrium shapes4,6,7 and were, therefore, inapplicable to most bogs14-16, our approach makes no such assumption and makes it possible to infer full shapes of bogs from a sample of elevations, such as a single elevation transect. Our findings provide a foundation for quantitative inference about the morphology, hydrology and carbon storage of bogs through Earth's history, as well as a basis for planning natural climate solutions by rewetting damaged bogs around the world.

The genetic legacy of the expansion of Bantu-speaking peoples in Africa.

The expansion of people speaking Bantu languages is the most dramatic demographic event in Late Holocene Africa and fundamentally reshaped the linguistic, cultural and biological landscape of the continent1-7. With a comprehensive genomic dataset, including newly generated data of modern-day and ancient DNA from previously unsampled regions in Africa, we contribute insights into this expansion that started 6,000-4,000 years ago in western Africa. We genotyped 1,763 participants, including 1,526 Bantu speakers from 147 populations across 14 African countries, and generated whole-genome sequences from 12 Late Iron Age individuals8. We show that genetic diversity amongst Bantu-speaking populations declines with distance from western Africa, with current-day Zambia and the Democratic Republic of Congo as possible crossroads of interaction. Using spatially explicit methods9 and correlating genetic, linguistic and geographical data, we provide cross-disciplinary support for a serial-founder migration model. We further show that Bantu speakers received significant gene flow from local groups in regions they expanded into. Our genetic dataset provides an exhaustive modern-day African comparative dataset for ancient DNA studies10 and will be important to a wide range of disciplines from science and humanities, as well as to the medical sector studying human genetic variation and health in African and African-descendant populations.

Geocoding processes in cohort studies: methods applied in the EpiFloripa Aging.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the process and epidemiological implications of georeferencing in EpiFloripa Aging samples (2009-2019). METHOD: The EpiFloripa Aging Cohort Study sought to investigate and monitor the living and health conditions of the older adult population (≥ 60) of Florianópolis in three study waves (2009/2010, 2013/2014, 2017/2019). With an automatic geocoding tool, the residential addresses were spatialized, allowing to investigate the effect of the georeferencing sample losses regarding 19 variables, evaluated in the three waves. The influence of different neighborhood definitions (census tracts, Euclidean buffers, and buffers across the street network) was examined in the results of seven variables: area, income, residential density, mixed land use, connectivity, health unit count, and public open space count. Pearson's correlation coefficients were calculated to evaluate the differences between neighborhood definitions according to three variables: contextual income, residential density, and land use diversity. RESULT: The losses imposed by geocoding (6%, n = 240) caused no statistically significant difference between the total sample and the geocoded sample. The analysis of the study variables suggests that the geocoding process may have included a higher proportion of participants with better income, education, and living conditions. The correlation coefficients showed little correspondence between measures calculated by the three neighborhood definitions (r = 0.37-0.54). The statistical difference between the variables calculated by buffers and census tracts highlights limitations in their use in the description of geospatial attributes. CONCLUSION: Despite the challenges related to geocoding, such as inconsistencies in addresses, adequate correction and verification mechanisms provided a high rate of assignment of geographic coordinates, the findings suggest that adopting buffers, favored by geocoding, represents a potential for spatial epidemiological analyses by improving the representation of environmental attributes and the understanding of health outcomes.

Revising the global biogeography of annual and perennial plants.

There are two main life cycles in plants-annual and perennial1,2. These life cycles are associated with different traits that determine ecosystem function3,4. Although life cycles are textbook examples of plant adaptation to different environments, we lack comprehensive knowledge regarding their global distributional patterns. Here we assembled an extensive database of plant life cycle assignments of 235,000 plant species coupled with millions of georeferenced datapoints to map the worldwide biogeography of these plant species. We found that annual plants are half as common as initially thought5-8, accounting for only 6% of plant species. Our analyses indicate that annuals are favoured in hot and dry regions. However, a more accurate model shows that the prevalence of annual species is driven by temperature and precipitation in the driest quarter (rather than yearly means), explaining, for example, why some Mediterranean systems have more annuals than desert systems. Furthermore, this pattern remains consistent among different families, indicating convergent evolution. Finally, we demonstrate that increasing climate variability and anthropogenic disturbance increase annual favourability. Considering future climate change, we predict an increase in annual prevalence for 69% of the world's ecoregions by 2060. Overall, our analyses raise concerns for ecosystem services provided by perennial plants, as ongoing changes are leading to a higher proportion of annual plants globally.

A critical analysis of the What3Words geocoding algorithm.

What3Words is a geocoding application that uses triples of words instead of alphanumeric coordinates to identify locations. What3Words has grown rapidly in popularity over the past few years and is used in logistical applications worldwide, including by emergency services. What3Words has also attracted criticism for being less reliable than claimed, in particular that the chance of confusing one address with another is high. This paper investigates these claims and shows that the What3Words algorithm for assigning addresses to grid boxes creates many pairs of confusable addresses, some of which are quite close together. The implications of this for the use of What3Words in critical or emergency situations is discussed.

High-resolution maps show that rubber causes substantial deforestation.

Understanding the effects of cash crop expansion on natural forest is of fundamental importance. However, for most crops there are no remotely sensed global maps1, and global deforestation impacts are estimated using models and extrapolations. Natural rubber is an example of a principal commodity for which deforestation impacts have been highly uncertain, with estimates differing more than fivefold1-4. Here we harnessed Earth observation satellite data and cloud computing5 to produce high-resolution maps of rubber (10 m pixel size) and associated deforestation (30 m pixel size) for Southeast Asia. Our maps indicate that rubber-related forest loss has been substantially underestimated in policy, by the public and in recent reports6-8. Our direct remotely sensed observations show that deforestation for rubber is at least twofold to threefold higher than suggested by figures now widely used for setting policy4. With more than 4 million hectares of forest loss for rubber since 1993 (at least 2 million hectares since 2000) and more than 1 million hectares of rubber plantations established in Key Biodiversity Areas, the effects of rubber on biodiversity and ecosystem services in Southeast Asia could be extensive. Thus, rubber deserves more attention in domestic policy, within trade agreements and in incoming due-diligence legislation.

The geography of climate and the global patterns of species diversity.

Climate's effect on global biodiversity is typically viewed through the lens of temperature, humidity and resulting ecosystem productivity1-6. However, it is not known whether biodiversity depends solely on these climate conditions, or whether the size and fragmentation of these climates are also crucial. Here we shift the common perspective in global biodiversity studies, transitioning from geographic space to a climate-defined multidimensional space. Our findings suggest that larger and more isolated climate conditions tend to harbour higher diversity and species turnover among terrestrial tetrapods, encompassing more than 30,000 species. By considering both the characteristics of climate itself and its geographic attributes, we can explain almost 90% of the variation in global species richness. Half of the explanatory power (45%) may be attributed either to climate itself or to the geography of climate, suggesting a nuanced interplay between them. Our work evolves the conventional idea that larger climate regions, such as the tropics, host more species primarily because of their size7,8. Instead, we underscore the integral roles of both the geographic extent and degree of isolation of climates. This refined understanding presents a more intricate picture of biodiversity distribution, which can guide our approach to biodiversity conservation in an ever-changing world.

Capturing emergency dispatch address points as geocoding candidates to quantify delimited confidence in residential geolocation.

BACKGROUND: In response to citizens' concerns about elevated cancer incidence in their locales, US CDC proposed publishing cancer incidence at sub-county scales. At these scales, confidence in patients' residential geolocation becomes a key constraint of geospatial analysis. To support monitoring cancer incidence in sub-county areas, we presented summary metrics to numerically delimit confidence in residential geolocation. RESULTS: We defined a concept of Residential Address Discriminant Power (RADP) as theoretically perfect within all residential addresses and its practical application, i.e., using Emergency Dispatch (ED) Address Point Candidates of Equivalent Likelihood (CEL) to quantify Residential Geolocation Discriminant Power (RGDP) to approximate RADP. Leveraging different productivity of probabilistic, deterministic, and interactive geocoding record linkage, we simultaneously detected CEL for 5,807 cancer cases reported to North Carolina Central Cancer Registry (NC CCR)- in January 2022. Batch-match probabilistic and deterministic algorithms matched 86.0% cases to their unique ED address point candidates or a CEL, 4.4% to parcel site address, and 1.4% to street centerline. Interactively geocoded cases were 8.2%. To demonstrate differences in residential geolocation confidence between enumeration areas, we calculated sRGDP for cancer cases by county and assessed the existing uncertainty within the ED data, i.e., identified duplicate addresses (as CEL) for each ED address point in the 2014 version of the NC ED data and calculated ED_sRGDP by county. Both summary RGDP (sRGDP) (0.62-1.00) and ED_sRGDP (0.36-1.00) varied across counties and were lower in rural counties (p < 0.05); sRGDP correlated with ED_sRGDP (r = 0.42, p < 0.001). The discussion covered multiple conceptual and economic issues attendant to quantifying confidence in residential geolocation and presented a set of organizing principles for future work. CONCLUSIONS: Our methodology produces simple metrics - sRGDP - to capture confidence in residential geolocation via leveraging ED address points as CEL. Two facts demonstrate the usefulness of sRGDP as area-based summary metrics: sRGDP variability between counties and the overall lower quality of residential geolocation in rural vs. urban counties. Low sRGDP for the cancer cases within the area of interest helps manage expectations for the uncertainty in cancer incidence data. By supplementing cancer incidence data with sRGDP and ED_sRGDP, CCRs can demonstrate transparency in geocoding success, which may help win citizen trust.