Distinct time trends in colorectal cancer incidence in countries with SDI levels from 1990 to 2019: an age-period-cohort analysis for the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study.

Introduction: The burden of colorectal cancer (CRC) plays a pivotal role in the global cancer epidemic. Our study reported the incidence trends in CRC and the associated effects of age, period, and birth cohort in 204 countries and territories over the past 30 years. Methods: The incidence data of CRC were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019. We performed the age-period-cohort (APC) model to estimate the overall annual percentage change (net drift) in the incidence rate, the annual percentage change by age group (local drift), and the relative risk (period and cohort effects) of the period and cohort in CRC during 1990-2019. This approach allows examining and distinguishing age, period, and cohort effects in incidence and potentially distinguishing colorectal cancer gaps in prevention and screening. Results: In 2019, the incidence of CRC was 2.17 (95% UI 2.00-2.34) million, of which China, the United States of America, and Japan had the highest incidence population, accounting for 45.9% of the global population. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) was 26.7 (95% UI 28.9-24.6) per 100,000 people, of which 30 countries had an incidence rate greater than 40.0 per 100,000 people. From 1990 to 2019, the middle SDI region had the largest increase in incidence rate, with a net drift of 2.33% (95% CI 2.2-2.46%, p < 0.001). Globally, the incidence population was concentrated in the age group of 50-69 years, and the age group of 30-34 years had the largest increase in incidence rate (local drift 1.19% (95% CI 1.01-1.37%)). At the same time, the sex and age distributions of CRC incidence had significant heterogeneity across regions and countries. In the past 30 years, the incidence rate in 31 countries has been well controlled (net drift <0), and most of them were concentrated in high-and high-middle-SDI regions, such as Australia, Czechia, and Belgium, and the relative risk of incidence generally improved over time and consecutive young birth cohorts. CRC incidence showed an unfavorable trend (net drift ≥1%) in 89 countries, of which 27 countries were more significant (net drift >2%), mostly concentrated in the middle SDI region, such as China, Mexico, and Brazil, and the risk of period and birth cohort was unfavorable. Conclusion: Globally, the incidence of CRC has shown an overall upward trend over the past 30 years, with the exception of some countries with higher SDI values. Significant age-period-cohort differences were observed in the risk of incidence in CRC worldwide. Effective prevention and control policies need to take into account the age-period-cohort effect characteristics of different regions.

Trends in the burden and determinants of HIV in the Asia-Pacific region (1990-2019): An age-period-cohort analysis of the 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study.

Although the burden of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in the Asia-Pacific region is increasingly severe, comprehensive evidence of the burden of HIV is scarce. We aimed to report the burden of HIV in people aged 15-79 years from 1990 to 2019 using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019. We analyzed rates of age-standardized disability-adjusted life years (ASDR), age-standardized mortality (ASMR), and age-standardized incidence (ASIR) in our age-period-cohort analysis by sociodemographic index (SDI). According to HIV reports in 2019 from 29 countries in the Asia-Pacific region, the low SDI group in Papua New Guinea had the highest ASDR, ASMR, and ASIR. From 1990 to 2019, the ASDR, ASIR, and ASMR of persons with acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) increased in 21 (72%) of the 29 countries in the Asia-Pacific region. During the same period, the disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of AIDS patients in the low SDI group in the region grew the fastest, particularly in Nepal. The incidence of HIV among individuals aged 20-30 years in the low-middle SDI group was higher than that of those in the other age groups. In 2019, unsafe sex was the main cause of HIV-related ASDR in the region's 29 countries, followed by drug use. The severity of the burden of HIV/AIDS in the Asia-Pacific region is increasing, especially among low SDI groups. Specific public health policies should be formulated based on the socioeconomic development level of each country to alleviate the burden of HIV/AIDS.

Time trends in the mortality of testicular cancer across the BRICS: an age-period-cohort analysis for the GBD 2019.

Testicular cancer (TCa) is a rare but impactful malignancy that primarily affects young men. Understanding the mortality rate of TCa is crucial for improving prevention and treatment strategies to reduce the risk of death among patients. We obtained TCa mortality data by place (5 countries), age (20-79 years), and year (1990-2019) from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Age-period-cohort model was used to estimate the net drift, local drift, age effects, period and cohort effects. In 2019, the global mortality of TCa increased to 10842 (95% UI 9961, 11902), with an increase of 50.08% compared to 1990.The all-age mortality rate for TCa in 2019 increased from 0.17/100,000 (95% UI 0.13, 0.20) in China to 0.48/100,000 (95% UI 0.38, 0.59) in Russian Federation, whereas the age-standardized mortality rate in 2019 was highest in the South Africa 0.47/100,000 (95% UI 0.42, 0.53) and lowest in the China 0.16/100,000 (95% UI 0.13, 0.19). China's aging population shifts mortality patterns towards the elderly, while in Russian Federation, young individuals are primarily affected by the distribution of deaths. To address divergent TCa mortality advancements in BRICS countries, we propose a contextually adaptive and resource-conscious approach to prioritize TCa prevention. Tailoring strategies to contextual diversity, including policy frameworks, human resources, and financial capacities, will enhance targeted interventions and effectiveness in reducing TCa mortality.

Type 2 diabetes attributable to ambient particulate matter pollution: a global burden study from 1990 to 2019.

Background: This study assesses the changes over time and geographical locations in the disease burden of type 2 diabetes (T2D) attributed to ambient particulate matter pollution (APMP) from 1990 to 2019 in 204 countries and regions with different socio-demographic indexes (SDI). Methods: The Global Burden of Diseases Study 2019 (GBD2019) database was used to analyze the global burden of T2D attributed to APMP. This study evaluated both the age-standardized death rate (ASDR) and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) related to T2D, comparing data from 1990 to 2019. Estimated Annual Percentage Changes (EAPCs) were also utilized to investigate the trends over the 30-year study period. Results: The global age-standardized DALY rate and ASDR exhibited an increasing trend, with an EAPC of 2.21 (95% CI: 2.15 to 2.27) and 1.50 (95% CI: 1.43 to 1.58), respectively. This rise was most notable among older adult populations, men, regions in Africa and Asia, as well as low-middle SDI regions. In 2019, the ASDR for T2D caused by APMP was recorded at 2.47 per 100,000 population, while the DALY rate stood at 108.98 per 100,000 population. Males and countries with middle SDI levels displayed significantly high age-standardized death and DALY rates, particularly noticeable in Southern Sub-Saharan Africa. Conversely, regions with high SDI levels like High-income North America demonstrated decreasing trends. Conclusion: This study reveals a significant increase in T2D worldwide as a result of APMP from 1990 to 2019, with a particular emphasis on its impact on men, the older adult, and regions with low to middle SDI levels. These results underscore the urgent necessity for implementing policies aimed at addressing air pollution in order to reduce the prevalence of T2D, especially in the areas most heavily affected.

Sex differences in the global burden of multidrug- resistant tuberculosis without extensive drug resistance in the general population and people living with HIV/AIDS, 1990-2019.

OBJECTIVE: Currently, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and multi-drug resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) without extensive drug resistance (XDR) are significant challenges in terms of the global burden of disease. This study aimed to evaluate the trends of the global burden of MDR-TB without XDR and HIV/AIDS-MDR-TB without XDR, focusing on differences in socioeconomic status and sex for 204 countries and territories across periods from 1990 to 2019. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 study were obtained to construct a separate index measuring the burden of MDR-TB without XDR and HIV/AIDS-MDR-TB without XDR. Incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were calculated for each case and group. A population-attributable fraction approach was used to assess mortality and incidence of HIV/AIDS and MDR-TB coinfection. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were presented for all measures. RESULTS: Our global estimates suggest that there were approximately 450,000 (95% UI 247,000-785,000) incident cases of MDR-TB without XDR and 109,000 (43,000-210,000) deaths caused by MDR-TB without XDR among individuals who were HIV-negative in 2019. For HIV-positive individuals, the corresponding figures were approximately 47,000 (33,000-67,000) incident cases of MDR-TB and 19,000 (8,000-36,000) deaths due to MDR-TB in the same year. In 2019, higher numbers of incident cases and deaths were observed in males compared to females among individuals who were HIV-negative. Conversely, for HIV-positive individuals, females had higher numbers of incident cases and deaths compared to males. Specifically, the estimated numbers for incident cases were 23,000 (15,000-33,000) for females and 24,000 (17,000-35,000) for males, while the estimated numbers for deaths were 9,600 (4,000-17,900) for females and 9,800 (4,100-18,500) for males. Male-to-female ratios have remained above 1.0 from 1990 to 2019 in both incident cases and number of deaths for HIV-negative individuals. However, for HIV and MDR-TB coinfection, both ratios were below 1.0 in most of the time series. CONCLUSIONS: Males had more cases and deaths due to MDR-TB without XDR than females in HIV-negative patients, while females faced a higher incidence and mortality in HIV/AIDS-MDR-TB without XDR. Interventions are needed to deal with such factors, which increase the burden of coinfection among females across the world.

Disease burden of breast cancer and risk factors in Europe 44 countries, 1990-2019: findings of the global burden of disease study 2019.

Background: Breast cancer (BC) represents a significant health challenge in Europe due to its elevated prevalence and heterogeneity. Despite notable progress in diagnostic and treatment methods, the region continues to grapple with rising BC burdens, with comprehensive investigations into this matter notably lacking. This study explores BC burden and potential contributing risk factors in 44 European countries from 1990 to 2019. The aim is to furnish evidence supporting the development of strategies for managing BC effectively. Methods: Disease burden estimates related to breast cancer from the Global Burden of Disease 2019(GBD2019) across Eastern, Central, and Western Europe were examined using Joinpoint regression for trends from 1990 to 2019. Linear regression models examined relationships between BC burden and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), healthcare access and quality (HAQ), and BC prevalence. We utilized disability-adjusted life year(DALY) proportions for each risk factor to depict BC risks. Results: In Europe, the BC burden was 463.2 cases per 100,000 people in 2019, 1.7 times the global burden. BC burden in women was significantly higher and increased with age. Age-standardized mortality and DALY rates of BC in Europe in 2019 decreased by 23.1%(average annual percent change: AAPC -0.92) and 25.9%(AAPC -1.02), respectively, compared to 1990, in line with global trends. From 1990 to 2019, age-standardized DALY declined faster in Western Europe (-34.8%, AAPC -1.49) than in Eastern Europe (-9.4%, AAPC -0.25) and Central Europe (-15.0%, AAPC -0.56). Monaco, Serbia, and Montenegro had the highest BC burden in Europe in 2019. BC burden was negatively correlated with HAQ. In addition, Alcohol use and Tobacco were significant risk factors for DALY. High fasting plasma glucose and obesity were also crucial risk factors that cannot be ignored in DALY. Conclusion: The burden of BC in Europe remains a significant health challenge, with regional variations despite an overall downward trend. Addressing the burden of BC in different regions of Europe and the increase of DALY caused by different risk factors, targeted prevention measures should be taken, especially the management of alcohol and tobacco should be strengthened, and screening services for BC should be popularized, and medical resources and technology allocation should be optimized.

Analysis and projections of disease burden for different risk factors and sexes of ischemic stroke in young adults in China.

To estimate the rate of death, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and project the disease burden of ischemic stroke due to relevant risk factors in young adults age 20-49 years by sex in China. Data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 were used. The age-standardized mortality (ASMR), age-standardized DALYs rate (ASDR), and estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC) were calculated to evaluate the temporal trends from 1990 to 2019. We also used the NORDPRED model to predict ASMR for ischemic stroke due to related risk factors in Chinese young adults over the next 10 years. From 1990 to 2019, the general age-standardized mortality [from 2.39 (1.97 to 2.99) in 1990 to 1.8 (1.41 to 2.18) in 2019, EAPC = - 1.23] and DALYs rates (from 171.7 (140.34 to 212.36) in 1990 to 144.4 (114.29 to 177.37) in 2019, EAPC = - 0.86) decreased for ischemic stroke in young adults in China. ASMR and ASDR decreased for all level 1 risk factors (including behavioral, environmental/occupational, and metabolic) from 1990 to 2019, with the slightest decrease for metabolic risks [ASMR from 1.86 (1.39 to 2.41) in 1990 to 1.53 (1.15 to 1.92) in 2019, ASDR from 133.68 (99.96 to 173.89) in 1990 to 123.54 (92.96 to 156.98) in 2019] and the largest decrease for environmental/occupational risks [ASMR from 1.57 (1.26 to 1.98) in 1990 to 1.03 (0.78 to 1.29) in 2019, ASDR from 110.91 (88.44 to 138.34) in 1990 to 80.03 (61.87 to 100.33) in 2019]. In general, high body-mass index, high red meat intake, and ambient particulate matter pollution contributed to the large increase in ASMR and ASDR between 1990 and 2019. Significant reductions in ASMR and ASDR were observed in low vegetables intake, household air pollution from solid fuels, lead exposure, and low fiber intake. In addition, there were sex differences in the ranking of ASMR attributable to risks in ischemic stroke. The disease burden of ischemic stroke attributable to relevant risk factors in young adults in China is greater and has a faster growth trend or a slower decline trend in males than in females (except for secondhand smoke). The apparent increasing trend of ASMR attributable to high fasting plasma glucose, high systolic blood pressure, high body-mass index, and high red meat intake was observed in males but not in females. The projected analysis showed an increasing trend in ASMR between 1990 and 2030 for all specific metabolic risks for males, but a decreasing trend for females. ASMR attributable to ambient particulate matter pollution showed an increasing trend from 1990 to 2030 for both males and females. The burden of ischemic stroke in young adults in China showed a downward trend from 1990 to 2019. Specific risk factors associated with the burden of ischemic stroke varied between the sexes. Corresponding measures need to be developed in China to reduce the disease burden of ischemic stroke among young adults.

Global, regional, and national burden and trends of migraine among women of childbearing age from 1990 to 2021: insights from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.

BACKGROUND: Migraine, a neurological disorder with a significant female predilection, is the leading cause of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in women of childbearing age (WCBA). There is currently a lack of comprehensive literature analysis on the overall global burden and changing trends of migraines in WCBA. METHODS: This study extracted three main indicators, including prevalence, incidence, and DALYs, related to migraine in WCBA from the Global Burden of Disease(GBD) database from 1990 to 2021. Our study presented point estimates with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). It evaluated the changing trends in the burden of migraine in WCBA using the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) and percentage change. RESULTS: In 2021, the global prevalence, incidence, and DALYs cases of migraine among WCBA were 493.94 million, 33.33 million, and 18.25 million, respectively, with percentage changes of 48%, 43%, and 47% compared to 1990. Over the past 32 years, global prevalence rates and DALYs rates globally have increased, with an EAPC of 0.03 (95% UI: 0.02 to 0.05) and 0.04 (95% UI: 0.03 to 0.05), while incidence rates have decreased with an EAPC of -0.07 (95% UI: -0.08 to -0.05). Among the 5 Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) regions, in 2021, the middle SDI region recorded the highest cases of prevalence, incidence, and DALYs of migraine among WCBA, estimated at 157.1 million, 10.56 million, and 5.81 million, respectively, approximately one-third of the global total. In terms of age, in 2021, the global incidence cases for the age group 15-19 years were 5942.5 thousand, with an incidence rate per 100,000 population of 1957.02, the highest among all age groups. The total number of migraine cases and incidence rate among WCBA show an increasing trend with age, particularly in the 45-49 age group. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, the burden of migraine among WCBA has significantly increased globally over the past 32 years, particularly within the middle SDI and the 45-49 age group. Research findings emphasize the importance of customized interventions aimed at addressing the issue of migraines in WCBA, thus contributing to the attainment of Sustainable Development Goal 3 set by the World Health Organization.

Global, regional and national burdens of Nasopharynx cancer in the adolescents and young adults from 1990 to 2019 and its predictions.

PURPOSE: To use data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019 to report the global, regional and national rates and trends of deaths incidence, prevalence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for Nasopharynx cancer (NPC) in adolescents and young adults (AYAs). METHODS: Data from the GBD 2019 were used to analyze deaths incidence, prevalence and DALYs due to NPC at global, regional, and national levels. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to calculate the average annual percentage changes (AAPC). The association between incidence, prevalence and DALYs and socioeconomic development was analyzed using the GBD Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Finally, projections were made until 2030 and calculated in Nordpred. RESULTS: The incidence, prevalence, death and DALYs rates (95%UI) due to NPC 0.96 (0.85-1.09, 6.31 (5.54-7.20),0.20 (0.19-0.22), and 12.23(11.27-13.29) in 2019, respectively. From 1990 to 2019, the incidence and prevalence rates increased by 1.79 (95% CI 1.03 to 2.55) and 2.97(95% CI 2.13 to 3.82) respectively while the deaths and DALYs rates declined by 1.64(95%CI 1.78 to 1.49) and 1.6(95%CI 1.75 to 1.4) respectively. Deaths and DALYs rates in South Asia, East Asia, North Africa and Middle East decreased with SDI. Incidence and prevalence rates in East Asia increased with SDI. At the national level, the incidence and prevalence rates are high in China, Taiwan(China), Singapore, Malaysia, Brunel Darussalam, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya and Malta. Meanwhile, the deaths and DALYs rates are still high in Malaysia, Brunel Darussalam, Greenland and Taiwan(Province of China). The deaths and DALYs rates are low in Honduras, Finland and Norway. From the 2020 to 2030, ASIR、ASPR and ASDR in most regions are predicted to stable, but DALYs tends to decline. CONCLUSION: NPC in AYAs is a significant global public problem. The incidence, prevalence, and DALYs rates vary widely by region and country. Therefore different regions and countries should be targeted to improve the disease burden of NPC.

Differences across the lifespan between females and males in the top 20 causes of disease burden globally: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.

BACKGROUND: Sex and gender shape health. There is a growing body of evidence focused on comprehensively and systematically examining the magnitude, persistence, and nature of differences in health between females and males. Here, we aimed to quantify differences in the leading causes of disease burden between females and males across ages and geographies. METHODS: We used the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 to compare disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) rates for females and males for the 20 leading causes of disease burden for individuals older than 10 years at the global level and across seven world regions, between 1990 and 2021. We present absolute and relative differences in the cause-specific DALY rates between females and males. FINDINGS: Globally, females had a higher burden of morbidity-driven conditions with the largest differences in DALYs for low back pain (with 478·5 [95% uncertainty interval 346·3-632·8] more DALYs per 100 000 individuals among females than males), depressive disorders (348·3 [241·3-471·0]), and headache disorders (332·9 [48·3-731·9]), whereas males had higher DALY rates for mortality-driven conditions with the largest differences in DALYs for COVID-19 (with 1767·8 [1581·1-1943·5] more DALYs per 100 000 among males than females), road injuries (1012·2 [934·1-1092·9]), and ischaemic heart disease (1611·8 [1405·0-1856·3]). The differences between sexes became larger over age and remained consistent over time for all conditions except HIV/AIDS. The largest difference in HIV/AIDS was observed among those aged 25-49 years in sub-Saharan Africa with 1724·8 (918·8-2613·7) more DALYs per 100 000 among females than males. INTERPRETATION: The notable health differences between females and males point to an urgent need for policies to be based on sex-specific and age-specific data. It is also important to continue promoting gender-sensitive research, and ultimately, implement interventions that not only reduce the burden of disease but also achieve greater health equity. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Quantifying cost of disease in livestock: a new metric for the Global Burden of Animal Diseases.

BACKGROUND: Increasing awareness of the environmental and public health impacts of expanding and intensifying animal-based food and farming systems creates discord, with the reliance of much of the world's population on animals for livelihoods and essential nutrition. Increasing the efficiency of food production through improved animal health has been identified as a step towards minimising these negative effects without compromising global food security. The Global Burden of Animal Diseases (GBADs) programme aims to provide data and analytical methods to support positive change in animal health across all livestock and aquaculture animal populations. METHODS: In this study, we present a metric that begins the process of disease burden estimation by converting the physical consequences of disease on animal performance to farm-level costs of disease, and calculates a metric termed the Animal Health Loss Envelope (AHLE) via comparison between the status quo and a disease-free ideal. An example calculation of the AHLE metric for meat production from broiler chickens is provided. FINDINGS: The AHLE presents the direct financial costs of disease at farm-level for all causes by estimating losses and expenditure in a given farming system. The general specification of the model measures productivity change at farm-level and provides an upper bound on productivity change in the absence of disease. On its own, it gives an indication of the scale of total disease cost at farm-level. INTERPRETATION: The AHLE is an essential stepping stone within the GBADs programme because it connects the physical performance of animals in farming systems under different environmental and management conditions and different health states to farm economics. Moving forward, AHLE results will be an important step in calculating the wider monetary consequences of changes in animal health as part of the GBADs programme. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office, EU Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme.

Global burden and economic impact of vaccine-preventable cancer mortality.

BACKGROUND: Infections are responsible for approximately 13% of cancer cases worldwide and many of these infections can be prevented by vaccination. Human papillomavirus (HPV) and hepatitis B virus (HBV) are among the most common infections that cause cancer deaths globally, despite effective prophylactic vaccines being available. This analysis aims to estimate the global burden and economic impact of vaccine-preventable cancer mortality across World Health Organization (WHO) regions. METHODS: The number of deaths and years of life lost (YLL) due to five different vaccine-preventable cancer forms (oral cavity, liver, laryngeal, cervical, and oropharyngeal cancer) in each of the WHO regions (African, Eastern Mediterranean, European, the Americas, South-East Asia Pacific, and Western Pacific) were obtained from the Institute for Health Metrics Evaluation global burden of disease dataset. Vaccine-preventable mortality was estimated considering the fraction attributable to infection, to estimate the number of deaths and YLL potentially preventable through vaccination. Data from the World Bank on GDP per capita were used to estimate the value of YLL (VYLL). The robustness of these results was explored with sensitivity analysis. Given that several Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) vaccines are in development, but not yet available, the impact of a potential vaccine for EBV was evaluated in a scenario analysis. RESULTS: In 2019, there were 465,740 potentially vaccine-preventable cancer deaths and 14,171,397 YLL across all WHO regions. The estimated economic impact due to this mortality was $106.3 billion globally. The sensitivity analysis calculated a range of 403,025-582,773 deaths and a range in productivity cost of $78.8-129.0 billion. In the scenario analysis EBV-related cancer mortality increased the global burden by 159,723 deaths and $32.4 billion. CONCLUSION: Overall, the findings from this analysis illustrate the high economic impact of premature cancer mortality that could be potentially preventable by vaccination which may assist decision-makers in allocating limited resources among competing priorities. Improved implementation and increased vaccination coverage of HPV and HBV should be prioritized to decrease this burden.

The long-term spatio-temporal trends in burden and attributable risk factors of major depressive disorder at global, regional and national levels during 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for GBD 2019.

AIMS: Caused by multiple risk factors, heavy burden of major depressive disorder (MDD) poses serious challenges to public health worldwide over the past 30 years. Yet the burden and attributable risk factors of MDD were not systematically known. We aimed to reveal the long-term spatio-temporal trends in the burden and attributable risk factors of MDD at global, regional and national levels during 1990-2019. METHODS: We obtained MDD and attributable risk factors data from Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. We used joinpoint regression model to assess the temporal trend in MDD burden, and age-period-cohort model to measure the effects of age, period and birth cohort on MDD incidence rate. We utilized population attributable fractions (PAFs) to estimate the specific proportions of MDD burden attributed to given risk factors. RESULTS: During 1990-2019, the global number of MDD incident cases, prevalent cases and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) increased by 59.10%, 59.57% and 58.57%, respectively. Whereas the global age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) and age-standardized DALYs rate (ASDR) of MDD decreased during 1990-2019. The ASIR, ASPR and ASDR in women were 1.62, 1.62 and 1.60 times as that in men in 2019, respectively. The highest age-specific incidence, prevalence and DALYs rate occurred at the age of 60-64 in women, and at the age of 75-84 in men, but the maximum increasing trends in these age-specific rates occurred at the age of 5-9. Population living during 2000-2004 had higher risk of MDD. MDD burden varied by socio-demographic index (SDI), regions and nations. In 2019, low-SDI region, Central sub-Saharan Africa and Uganda had the highest ASIR, ASPR and ASDR. The global PAFs of intimate partner violence (IPV), childhood sexual abuse (CSA) and bullying victimization (BV) were 8.43%, 5.46% and 4.86% in 2019, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Over the past 30 years, the global ASIR, ASPR and ASDR of MDD had decreased trends, while the burden of MDD was still serious, and multiple disparities in MDD burden remarkably existed. Women, elderly and populations living during 2000-2004 and in low-SDI regions, had more severe burden of MDD. Children were more susceptible to MDD. Up to 18.75% of global MDD burden would be eliminated through early preventing against IPV, CSA and BV. Tailored strategies-and-measures in different regions and demographic groups based on findings in this studywould be urgently needed to eliminate the impacts of modifiable risk factors on MDD, and then mitigate the burden of MDD.

Burden evaluation and prediction of osteoarthritis and site-specific osteoarthritis coupled with attributable risk factors in China from 1990 to 2030.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to estimate and predict the burden of osteoarthritis (OA) and site-specific OA (hip, knee, hand, and others) from 1990 to 2030 and their attributable risk factors in China. METHOD: Data were obtained from the Global Burden of Diseases 2019. The burden was estimated by analyzing the trends of prevalence, incidence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALY). Population attributable risk (PAR) was calculated to assess the impact of high body mass index (BMI). The prediction from 2020 to 2030 was implemented by Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis. RESULTS: In China, prevalent cases, DALY, and incident cases of OA increased to 132.81 million, 4.72 million, and 10.68 million, respectively. Age-standardized rates (ASRs) of prevalence, DALYs, and incidence increased for OA and site-specific OA, especially for hip OA. Site-specific OA showed different susceptible peaking ages, and the burden for those over 50 years old became serious. Female preference existed in the trends for knee OA but not in those for hip, hand, and other OA. PARs of high BMI continued to increase, impacting knee OA more than hip OA and showing female preference. In the next decade, incident cases for OA and site-specific OA will continue to increase, despite that the ASR of OA incidence will decrease. CONCLUSIONS: OA and site-specific OA remain huge public health challenges in China. The burden of OA and site-specific OA is increasing, especially among people over 50 years old. Health education, exercise, and removing modifiable risk factors contribute to alleviate the growing burden. Key Points • In China, the burden of osteoarthritis and site-specific osteoarthritis (hip, knee, hand, and others) as well as the Risk Factor (high body mass index) increased greatly from 1990 to 2019. • It is estimated that incident cases for OA and site-specific OA will continue to increase, despite that the ASR of OA incidence will decrease.

Epidemiological patterns of chronic kidney disease attributed to type 2 diabetes from 1990-2019.

Background: This study investigates the burden of chronic kidney disease attributed to type 2 diabetes (CKD-T2D) across different geographical locations and time periods from 1990 to 2019. A total of 204 countries and regions are included in the analysis, with consideration given to their socio-demographic indexes (SDI). The aim is to examine both spatial and temporal variations in CKD-T2D burden. Methods: This research utilized data from the 2019 Global Burden of Diseases Study to evaluate the age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR), Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs), and Estimated Annual Percentage Change (EAPC) associated with CKD-T2D. Results: Since 1990, there has been a noticeable increase of CKD age-standardized rates due to T2D, with an EAPCs of 0.65 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.63 to 0.66) for ASIR and an EAPC of 0.92 (95% CI: 0.8 to 1.05) for age-standardized DALYs rate. Among these regions, Andean Latin America showed a significant increase in CKD-T2D incidence [EAPC: 2.23 (95% CI: 2.11 to 2.34) and North America showed a significant increase in CKD-T2D DALYs [EAPC: 2.73 (95% CI: 2.39 to 3.07)]. The burden was higher in male and increased across all age groups, peaking at 60-79 years. Furthermore, there was a clear correlation between SDI and age-standardized rates, with regions categorized as middle SDI and High SDI experiencing a significant rise in burden. Conclusion: The global burden of CKD-T2D has significantly risen since 1990, especially among males aged 60-79 years and in regions with middle SDI. It is imperative to implement strategic interventions to effectively address this escalating health challenge.

Global Burden of Alzheimer's Disease and Other Dementias Attributed to High Fasting Plasma Glucose from 1990 to 2019.

BACKGROUND: Burden of Alzheimer's disease (AD) and other dementias have grown rapidly over the decades, and high fasting plasma glucose (HFPG) was one of the well-established risk factors. It is urgently needed to estimate the global burden of AD and other dementias attributable to high fasting plasma glucose between regions, countries, age groups, and sexes to inform development of effective primary disease prevention strategies and intervention policies. METHODS: The burden of AD and other dementias attributable to HFPG was estimated based on a modeling strategy using the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 dataset. The disease burden and time trend globally and by region, country, development level, age group, and sex were evaluated. RESULTS: The number of AD and other dementias-related deaths attributable to HFPG increased from 42,998.23 (95% uncertainty interval, UI: 4459.86-163,455.78, the year of 1990) to 159,244.53 deaths (95% UI 18,385.23-583,514.15, the year of 2019). The age-standardized death rate increased from 1.69 (95% UI 0.18-6.54) in 1990 to 2.24 (95% UI 0.26-8.24) in 2019. The burden was higher in more developed regions. The burden in women was double that in men, that HFPG-attributable AD and other dementias caused 99,812.79 deaths (95% UI 9005.67-387,160.60) in women and 59,431.74 deaths (95% UI 5439.02-214,819.23) in men, with age-standardized death rate of 2.27 (95% UI 0.20-8.79) per 100,000 population in women and 2.20 (95% UI 0.20-8.00) in men. CONCLUSION: Findings from the current study emphasizes the urgent requirement for targeted interventions in high-development regions, as well as the importance of proactive measures in middle-development countries in protection of AD and other dementias. The gender disparity necessitates the integration of gender-specific considerations in targeted approaches in prevention of AD and other dementias.

Decomposing difference in the kidney cancer burden measures between 1990 and 2019 based on the global burden of disease study.

The kidney cancer (KC) burden measures have changed dramatically in recent years due to changes in exposure to the determinants over time. We aimed to decompose the difference in the KC burden measures between 1990 and 2019. This ecological study included data on the KC burden measures as well as socio-demographic index (SDI), behavioral, dietary, and metabolic risk factors from the global burden of disease study. Non-linear multivariate decomposition analysis was applied to decompose the difference in the burden of KC. Globally, ASIR, ASMR, and ASDR of KC increased from 2.88 to 4.37, from 1.70 to 2.16, and from 46.13 to 54.96 per 100,000 people between 1990 and 2019, respectively. The global burden of KC was more concentrated in developed countries. From 1990 to 2019, the burden of KC has increased the most in Eastern European countries. More than 70% of the difference in the KC burden measures between 1990 and 2019 was due to changes in exposure to the risk factors over time. The SDI, high body mass index (BMI), and alcohol use had the greatest contribution to the difference in the KC burden measures. Changes in characteristics over time, including SDI, high BMI, and alcohol consumption, appear to be important in the evolving landscape of KC worldwide. This finding may help policymakers design policies and implement prevention programs to control and manage KC.

Global burden and prediction study of cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma from 1990 to 2030: A systematic analysis and comparison with China.

Background: China has the highest number of new cancer cases and deaths globally. Due to particularly low scores in health care quality for cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma (cSCC), the country's cSCC burden requires greater awareness. Consequently, we aimed to evaluate and predict the trend of the cSCC burden globally and in China from 1990 to 2030. Methods: We retrieved data from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study, which provided estimates of the incidence, mortality, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of cSCC from 1990 to 2019. We set up joint-point analyses and Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) models to predict the disease burden of cSCC up to 2030. Results: In 2019, China reported age-standardised rates of cSCC prevalence, incidence, mortality, and DALYs of 2.54, 2.12, 0.88, and 16.76 per 100 000 population, respectively. The country's prevalence and incidence rates from 1990 to 2019 were lower than the global levels, but its mortality and DALY rates were higher. The age-standardised rates were higher for males, and the disease burden increased with each age group globally and in China. Moreover, the average annual percentage change showed all indicators were growing faster than the global levels. According to the BAPC model, there will be an upward trend in the prevalence and incidence globally and in China between 2020 and 2030, with a decrease in mortality and DALYs. Conclusions: We observed an upward trend in the cSCC burden over the past 30 years in China. Prevalence and incidence are expected to continue at a higher rate than the global average in the next decade, while mortality and DALYs are predicted to decrease. As the Chinese population ages, efforts toward managing and preventing cSCC should be targeted towards the elderly population.

Prevalence trends of anemia impairment in adolescents and young adults with HIV/AIDS.

BACKGROUND: Anemia is a common complication of HIV/AIDS, particularly in adolescents and young adults across various countries and regions. However, little is known about the changing prevalence trends of anemia impairment in this population over time. METHODS: Data on anemia in adolescents and young adults with HIV/AIDS from 1990 to 2019 were collected from the Global Burden of Disease. Prevalence was calculated by gender, region, and country for individuals aged 10-24, and trends were measured using estimating annual percentage changes (EAPC). RESULTS: Globally, the prevalence of adolescents and young adults with HIV/AIDS increased from 103.95 per 100,000 population in 1990 to 203.78 in 2019. However, anemia impairment has decreased over the past three decades, with a global percentage decreasing from 70.6% in 1990 to 34.7% in 2019, mainly presenting as mild to moderate anemia and significantly higher in females than males. The largest decreases were observed in Central Sub-Saharan Africa, North America, and Eastern Sub-Saharan Africa, with EAPCs of -2.8, -2.34, and -2.17, respectively. Tajikistan (78.76%) and Madagascar (74.65%) had the highest anemia impairment percentage in 2019, while China (16.61%) and Iceland (13.73%) had the lowest. Anemia impairment was closely related to sociodemographic index (SDI) levels, with a high proportion of impairment in low SDI regions but a stable decreasing trend (EAPC = -0.37). CONCLUSION: Continued anemia monitoring and management are crucial for patients with HIV, especially in high-prevalence regions and among females. Public health policies and interventions can improve the quality of life and reduce morbidity and mortality.

Global burden of liver cirrhosis 1990-2019 and 20 years forecast: results from the global burden of disease study 2019.

BACKGROUND: Cirrhosis is a disease that imposes a heavy burden worldwide, but its incidence varies widely by region. Therefore, we analysed data on the incidence and mortality of cirrhosis in 204 countries and territories from 1990-2019 and projected the disease development from 2019-2039. METHODS: Data on the incidence and mortality of liver cirrhosis from 1990 to 2019 were acquired from the public Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. In addition, the average annual percentage change (AAPC) and estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) of the age-standardized rate (ASR) of cirrhosis in different regions were calculated. The estimates of risk factor exposure were summarized, and the proportion of causes and risk factors of liver cirrhosis and their relationship with the human development index (HDI) and socio-demographic index (SDI) were analysed. Trends in the incidence of cirrhosis in 2019-2039 were predicted using Nordpred and BAPC models. RESULTS: Globally, the ASR of cirrhosis incidence decreased by 0.05% per year from 25.7/100,000 in 1990 to 25.3/100,000 in 2019. The mortality risk associated with cirrhosis is notably lower in females than in males (13 per 100,000 vs 25 per 100,000). The leading cause of cirrhosis shifted from hepatitis B to C. Globally, alcohol use increased by 14%. In line, alcohol use contributed to 49.3% of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and 48.4% of global deaths from liver cirrhosis. Countries with a low ASR in 1990 experienced a faster increase in cirrhosis, whereas in 2019, the opposite was observed. In countries with high SDI, the ASR of cirrhosis is generally lower. Finally, projections indicate that the number and incidence of cirrhosis will persistently rise from 2019-2039. CONCLUSIONS: Cirrhosis poses an increasing health burden. Given the changing etiology, there is an imperative to strengthen the prevention of hepatitis C and alcohol consumption, to achieve early reduce the incidence of cirrhosis.

This study is an updated assessment of liver cirrhosis prevalence trends in 204 countries worldwide and the first to project trends over the next 20 years.The disease burden of cirrhosis is still increasing, and despite the decline in ASR, the number and prevalence of cirrhosis will continue to increase over the next two decades after 2019.It is alarming that the global surge in alcohol use is accompanied by an increase in DALYs and deaths due to liver cirrhosis.Liver cirrhosis remains a noteworthy public health event, and our study can further guide the development of national healthcare policies and the implementation of related interventions.