The burden, causes, and determinants of blindness and vision impairment in Asia: An analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study.

Background: Asia accounts for more than half of the world's population and carries a substantial proportion of the global burden of blindness and vision impairment. Characterising this burden, as well as its causes and determinants, could help with devising targeted interventions for reducing the occurrence of blindness and visual impairment. Methods: Using the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 database, we retrieved data on the number of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs); crude and age-standardised rates; and the prevalence (with 95% uncertainty intervals (95%UIs)) of blindness and vision loss due to six causes (age-related macular degeneration, cataracts, glaucoma, near-vision impairment, refractive error, and other vision loss) for Asian countries for the period between 1990 and 2019. We defined DALYs as the sum of the years lost due to disability and years of life lost, and calculated age-standardised figures for the number of DALYs and prevalence by adjusting for population size and age structure. We then evaluated the time trend of the disease burden and conducted subgroup analyses by gender, age, geographic locations, and socio-demographic index (SDI). Results: In 2019, the DALYs and prevalence of blindness and vision loss had risen by 90.1% and 116% compared with 1990, reaching 15.84 million DALYs (95% UI = 15.83, 15.85) and 506.71 million cases (95% UI = 506.68, 506.74). Meanwhile, the age-standardised rate of DALYs decreased from 1990 to 2019. Cataracts, refractive error, and near vision impairment were the three most common causes. South Asia had the heaviest regional disease burden (age-standardised rate of DALYs = 517 per 100 000 population; 95% UI = 512, 521). Moreover, the burden due to cataracts ranked high in most Asian populations. Being a woman; being older; and having a lower national SDI were factors associated with a greater vision loss burden. Conclusions: The burden due to vision loss remains high in Asian populations. Cataracts, refractive error, and near vision loss were the primary causes of blindness and vision loss. Greater investment in ocular disease prevention and care by countries with lower socioeconomic status is needed, as well as specific strategies targeting cataract management, women and the elderly.

Non-communicable diseases and their risk factors in Ukraine: analysis of the global burden of disease 2019 study.

OBJECTIVE: Aim: To analyse the burden and risk factors of Non-Communicable diseases (NCDs) in Ukraine to determine the ways to prevent them. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Materials and Methods: Using a statistical method, NCDs DALYs (Disability-Adjusted Life Years) in Ukraine were analyzed in dynamics for 1990-2019 and in comparison, with European and EU countries based on the data from "Global Burden of Disease, 2019" research. RESULTS: Results: The burden of NCDs in Ukraine is 1.5 time higher than in European and EU countries. The most negative dynamic trends and significant differences between indicators in Ukraine and EU countries (with an excess of 2 or more times) were identified for DALYs due to cardiovascular diseases, digestive diseases and substance use disorders. In Ukraine the burden of NCDs can be reduced on 25.9% by normalization of systolic blood pressure, on 21.2% by optimizing diet, on18.5% by quitting smoking, on 17.6% by lowering LDL cholesterol, on 16.5% by normalizing body weight and on 9.2% by quitting alcohol abuse. CONCLUSION: Conclusions: Ukraine should develop and implement a modern system for monitoring and assessing the NCDs burden and their risk factors; strengthen the capacity of public health institutions and their ability to attract communities to implement interventions to control NCDs modified risk factors, increase awarnes and the population's responsible attitude towards their health; strengthen the ability and motivate primary health care to provide quality primary prevention, screening and timely diagnosis and treatment of chronic NCDs.

Global, regional and national burdens of Nasopharynx cancer in the adolescents and young adults from 1990 to 2019 and its predictions.

PURPOSE: To use data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019 to report the global, regional and national rates and trends of deaths incidence, prevalence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for Nasopharynx cancer (NPC) in adolescents and young adults (AYAs). METHODS: Data from the GBD 2019 were used to analyze deaths incidence, prevalence and DALYs due to NPC at global, regional, and national levels. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to calculate the average annual percentage changes (AAPC). The association between incidence, prevalence and DALYs and socioeconomic development was analyzed using the GBD Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Finally, projections were made until 2030 and calculated in Nordpred. RESULTS: The incidence, prevalence, death and DALYs rates (95%UI) due to NPC 0.96 (0.85-1.09, 6.31 (5.54-7.20),0.20 (0.19-0.22), and 12.23(11.27-13.29) in 2019, respectively. From 1990 to 2019, the incidence and prevalence rates increased by 1.79 (95% CI 1.03 to 2.55) and 2.97(95% CI 2.13 to 3.82) respectively while the deaths and DALYs rates declined by 1.64(95%CI 1.78 to 1.49) and 1.6(95%CI 1.75 to 1.4) respectively. Deaths and DALYs rates in South Asia, East Asia, North Africa and Middle East decreased with SDI. Incidence and prevalence rates in East Asia increased with SDI. At the national level, the incidence and prevalence rates are high in China, Taiwan(China), Singapore, Malaysia, Brunel Darussalam, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya and Malta. Meanwhile, the deaths and DALYs rates are still high in Malaysia, Brunel Darussalam, Greenland and Taiwan(Province of China). The deaths and DALYs rates are low in Honduras, Finland and Norway. From the 2020 to 2030, ASIR、ASPR and ASDR in most regions are predicted to stable, but DALYs tends to decline. CONCLUSION: NPC in AYAs is a significant global public problem. The incidence, prevalence, and DALYs rates vary widely by region and country. Therefore different regions and countries should be targeted to improve the disease burden of NPC.

Sex differences in the global burden of multidrug- resistant tuberculosis without extensive drug resistance in the general population and people living with HIV/AIDS, 1990-2019.

OBJECTIVE: Currently, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and multi-drug resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) without extensive drug resistance (XDR) are significant challenges in terms of the global burden of disease. This study aimed to evaluate the trends of the global burden of MDR-TB without XDR and HIV/AIDS-MDR-TB without XDR, focusing on differences in socioeconomic status and sex for 204 countries and territories across periods from 1990 to 2019. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 study were obtained to construct a separate index measuring the burden of MDR-TB without XDR and HIV/AIDS-MDR-TB without XDR. Incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were calculated for each case and group. A population-attributable fraction approach was used to assess mortality and incidence of HIV/AIDS and MDR-TB coinfection. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were presented for all measures. RESULTS: Our global estimates suggest that there were approximately 450,000 (95% UI 247,000-785,000) incident cases of MDR-TB without XDR and 109,000 (43,000-210,000) deaths caused by MDR-TB without XDR among individuals who were HIV-negative in 2019. For HIV-positive individuals, the corresponding figures were approximately 47,000 (33,000-67,000) incident cases of MDR-TB and 19,000 (8,000-36,000) deaths due to MDR-TB in the same year. In 2019, higher numbers of incident cases and deaths were observed in males compared to females among individuals who were HIV-negative. Conversely, for HIV-positive individuals, females had higher numbers of incident cases and deaths compared to males. Specifically, the estimated numbers for incident cases were 23,000 (15,000-33,000) for females and 24,000 (17,000-35,000) for males, while the estimated numbers for deaths were 9,600 (4,000-17,900) for females and 9,800 (4,100-18,500) for males. Male-to-female ratios have remained above 1.0 from 1990 to 2019 in both incident cases and number of deaths for HIV-negative individuals. However, for HIV and MDR-TB coinfection, both ratios were below 1.0 in most of the time series. CONCLUSIONS: Males had more cases and deaths due to MDR-TB without XDR than females in HIV-negative patients, while females faced a higher incidence and mortality in HIV/AIDS-MDR-TB without XDR. Interventions are needed to deal with such factors, which increase the burden of coinfection among females across the world.

Global, regional, and national burden and trends of migraine among women of childbearing age from 1990 to 2021: insights from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.

BACKGROUND: Migraine, a neurological disorder with a significant female predilection, is the leading cause of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in women of childbearing age (WCBA). There is currently a lack of comprehensive literature analysis on the overall global burden and changing trends of migraines in WCBA. METHODS: This study extracted three main indicators, including prevalence, incidence, and DALYs, related to migraine in WCBA from the Global Burden of Disease(GBD) database from 1990 to 2021. Our study presented point estimates with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). It evaluated the changing trends in the burden of migraine in WCBA using the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) and percentage change. RESULTS: In 2021, the global prevalence, incidence, and DALYs cases of migraine among WCBA were 493.94 million, 33.33 million, and 18.25 million, respectively, with percentage changes of 48%, 43%, and 47% compared to 1990. Over the past 32 years, global prevalence rates and DALYs rates globally have increased, with an EAPC of 0.03 (95% UI: 0.02 to 0.05) and 0.04 (95% UI: 0.03 to 0.05), while incidence rates have decreased with an EAPC of -0.07 (95% UI: -0.08 to -0.05). Among the 5 Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) regions, in 2021, the middle SDI region recorded the highest cases of prevalence, incidence, and DALYs of migraine among WCBA, estimated at 157.1 million, 10.56 million, and 5.81 million, respectively, approximately one-third of the global total. In terms of age, in 2021, the global incidence cases for the age group 15-19 years were 5942.5 thousand, with an incidence rate per 100,000 population of 1957.02, the highest among all age groups. The total number of migraine cases and incidence rate among WCBA show an increasing trend with age, particularly in the 45-49 age group. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, the burden of migraine among WCBA has significantly increased globally over the past 32 years, particularly within the middle SDI and the 45-49 age group. Research findings emphasize the importance of customized interventions aimed at addressing the issue of migraines in WCBA, thus contributing to the attainment of Sustainable Development Goal 3 set by the World Health Organization.

Time trends in the mortality of testicular cancer across the BRICS: an age-period-cohort analysis for the GBD 2019.

Testicular cancer (TCa) is a rare but impactful malignancy that primarily affects young men. Understanding the mortality rate of TCa is crucial for improving prevention and treatment strategies to reduce the risk of death among patients. We obtained TCa mortality data by place (5 countries), age (20-79 years), and year (1990-2019) from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Age-period-cohort model was used to estimate the net drift, local drift, age effects, period and cohort effects. In 2019, the global mortality of TCa increased to 10842 (95% UI 9961, 11902), with an increase of 50.08% compared to 1990.The all-age mortality rate for TCa in 2019 increased from 0.17/100,000 (95% UI 0.13, 0.20) in China to 0.48/100,000 (95% UI 0.38, 0.59) in Russian Federation, whereas the age-standardized mortality rate in 2019 was highest in the South Africa 0.47/100,000 (95% UI 0.42, 0.53) and lowest in the China 0.16/100,000 (95% UI 0.13, 0.19). China's aging population shifts mortality patterns towards the elderly, while in Russian Federation, young individuals are primarily affected by the distribution of deaths. To address divergent TCa mortality advancements in BRICS countries, we propose a contextually adaptive and resource-conscious approach to prioritize TCa prevention. Tailoring strategies to contextual diversity, including policy frameworks, human resources, and financial capacities, will enhance targeted interventions and effectiveness in reducing TCa mortality.

Type 2 diabetes attributable to ambient particulate matter pollution: a global burden study from 1990 to 2019.

Background: This study assesses the changes over time and geographical locations in the disease burden of type 2 diabetes (T2D) attributed to ambient particulate matter pollution (APMP) from 1990 to 2019 in 204 countries and regions with different socio-demographic indexes (SDI). Methods: The Global Burden of Diseases Study 2019 (GBD2019) database was used to analyze the global burden of T2D attributed to APMP. This study evaluated both the age-standardized death rate (ASDR) and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) related to T2D, comparing data from 1990 to 2019. Estimated Annual Percentage Changes (EAPCs) were also utilized to investigate the trends over the 30-year study period. Results: The global age-standardized DALY rate and ASDR exhibited an increasing trend, with an EAPC of 2.21 (95% CI: 2.15 to 2.27) and 1.50 (95% CI: 1.43 to 1.58), respectively. This rise was most notable among older adult populations, men, regions in Africa and Asia, as well as low-middle SDI regions. In 2019, the ASDR for T2D caused by APMP was recorded at 2.47 per 100,000 population, while the DALY rate stood at 108.98 per 100,000 population. Males and countries with middle SDI levels displayed significantly high age-standardized death and DALY rates, particularly noticeable in Southern Sub-Saharan Africa. Conversely, regions with high SDI levels like High-income North America demonstrated decreasing trends. Conclusion: This study reveals a significant increase in T2D worldwide as a result of APMP from 1990 to 2019, with a particular emphasis on its impact on men, the older adult, and regions with low to middle SDI levels. These results underscore the urgent necessity for implementing policies aimed at addressing air pollution in order to reduce the prevalence of T2D, especially in the areas most heavily affected.

Trends in the burden and determinants of HIV in the Asia-Pacific region (1990-2019): An age-period-cohort analysis of the 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study.

Although the burden of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in the Asia-Pacific region is increasingly severe, comprehensive evidence of the burden of HIV is scarce. We aimed to report the burden of HIV in people aged 15-79 years from 1990 to 2019 using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019. We analyzed rates of age-standardized disability-adjusted life years (ASDR), age-standardized mortality (ASMR), and age-standardized incidence (ASIR) in our age-period-cohort analysis by sociodemographic index (SDI). According to HIV reports in 2019 from 29 countries in the Asia-Pacific region, the low SDI group in Papua New Guinea had the highest ASDR, ASMR, and ASIR. From 1990 to 2019, the ASDR, ASIR, and ASMR of persons with acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) increased in 21 (72%) of the 29 countries in the Asia-Pacific region. During the same period, the disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of AIDS patients in the low SDI group in the region grew the fastest, particularly in Nepal. The incidence of HIV among individuals aged 20-30 years in the low-middle SDI group was higher than that of those in the other age groups. In 2019, unsafe sex was the main cause of HIV-related ASDR in the region's 29 countries, followed by drug use. The severity of the burden of HIV/AIDS in the Asia-Pacific region is increasing, especially among low SDI groups. Specific public health policies should be formulated based on the socioeconomic development level of each country to alleviate the burden of HIV/AIDS.

Global, regional and national burden of Glaucoma: an update analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

PURPOSE: As the epidemiological and burden trends of glaucoma are changing, it is extremely necessary to re-investigate geographical differences and trends. Here we use data from the 2019 Global burden of Disease, which aims to report the prevalence and disability-adjusted life years of glaucoma injury to assess the latest epidemiological models and trends from 1990 to 2019. METHOD: Annual case numbers, age-standardized rates of prevalence, DALYs, and their estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) for glaucoma between 1990 and 2019 were derived from the GBD 2019 study. The relationship between glaucoma disease burden and social demographic index (SDI) was also investigated in this study. RESULTS: In 2019, there were 7.47 million prevalent cases and 0.75 million DALYs cases, which increased by 92.53% and 69.23% compared with 1990 respectively. The global age-standardized rate of prevalence (ASPR) and age-standardized rate of DALYs (ASDR) decreased during 1990-2019 (EAPC = - 0.55 and - 1, respectively). In 2019, the highest ASPR and ASDR of Glaucoma were all observed in Mali, whereas the lowest occurred in Taiwan (Province of China). In terms of gender, males were more likely to suffer from glaucoma than females, especially the elderly. CONCLUSIONS: The global prevalence and DALYs of glaucoma had an absolute increase during the past 30 years. The disease burden caused by glaucoma is closely related to socioeconomic level, age, gender, and other factors, and these findings provide a basis for policymakers from the perspective of social management.

Global burden of type 1 diabetes in adults aged 65 years and older, 1990-2019: population based study.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the burden, trends, and inequalities of type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) among older adults at global, regional, and national level from 1990 to 2019. DESIGN: Population based study. POPULATION: Adults aged ≥65 years from 21 regions and 204 countries and territories (Global Burden of Disease and Risk Factors Study 2019)from 1990 to 2019. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Primary outcomes were T1DM related age standardised prevalence, mortality, disability adjusted life years (DALYs), and average annual percentage change. RESULTS: The global age standardised prevalence of T1DM among adults aged ≥65 years increased from 400 (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 332 to 476) per 100 000 population in 1990 to 514 (417 to 624) per 100 000 population in 2019, with an average annual trend of 0.86% (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.79% to 0.93%); while mortality decreased from 4.74 (95% UI 3.44 to 5.9) per 100 000 population to 3.54 (2.91 to 4.59) per 100 000 population, with an average annual trend of -1.00% (95% CI -1.09% to -0.91%), and age standardised DALYs decreased from 113 (95% UI 89 to 137) per 100 000 population to 103 (85 to 127) per 100 000 population, with an average annual trend of -0.33% (95% CI -0.41% to -0.25%). The most significant decrease in DALYs was observed among those aged <79 years: 65-69 (-0.44% per year (95% CI -0.53% to -0.34%)), 70-74 (-0.34% per year (-0.41% to -0.27%)), and 75-79 years (-0.42% per year (-0.58% to -0.26%)). Mortality fell 13 times faster in countries with a high sociodemographic index versus countries with a low-middle sociodemographic index (-2.17% per year (95% CI -2.31% to -2.02%) v -0.16% per year (-0.45% to 0.12%)). While the highest prevalence remained in high income North America, Australasia, and western Europe, the highest DALY rates were found in southern sub-Saharan Africa, Oceania, and the Caribbean. A high fasting plasma glucose level remained the highest risk factor for DALYs among older adults during 1990-2019. CONCLUSIONS: The life expectancy of older people with T1DM has increased since the 1990s along with a considerable decrease in associated mortality and DALYs. T1DM related mortality and DALYs were lower in women aged ≥65 years, those living in regions with a high sociodemographic index, and those aged <79 years. Management of high fasting plasma glucose remains a major challenge for older people with T1DM, and targeted clinical guidelines are needed.

A unified framework for estimating country-specific cumulative incidence for 18 diseases stratified by polygenic risk.

Polygenic scores (PGSs) offer the ability to predict genetic risk for complex diseases across the life course; a key benefit over short-term prediction models. To produce risk estimates relevant to clinical and public health decision-making, it is important to account for varying effects due to age and sex. Here, we develop a novel framework to estimate country-, age-, and sex-specific estimates of cumulative incidence stratified by PGS for 18 high-burden diseases. We integrate PGS associations from seven studies in four countries (N = 1,197,129) with disease incidences from the Global Burden of Disease. PGS has a significant sex-specific effect for asthma, hip osteoarthritis, gout, coronary heart disease and type 2 diabetes (T2D), with all but T2D exhibiting a larger effect in men. PGS has a larger effect in younger individuals for 13 diseases, with effects decreasing linearly with age. We show for breast cancer that, relative to individuals in the bottom 20% of polygenic risk, the top 5% attain an absolute risk for screening eligibility 16.3 years earlier. Our framework increases the generalizability of results from biobank studies and the accuracy of absolute risk estimates by appropriately accounting for age- and sex-specific PGS effects. Our results highlight the potential of PGS as a screening tool which may assist in the early prevention of common diseases.

Analysis and projections of disease burden for different risk factors and sexes of ischemic stroke in young adults in China.

To estimate the rate of death, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and project the disease burden of ischemic stroke due to relevant risk factors in young adults age 20-49 years by sex in China. Data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 were used. The age-standardized mortality (ASMR), age-standardized DALYs rate (ASDR), and estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC) were calculated to evaluate the temporal trends from 1990 to 2019. We also used the NORDPRED model to predict ASMR for ischemic stroke due to related risk factors in Chinese young adults over the next 10 years. From 1990 to 2019, the general age-standardized mortality [from 2.39 (1.97 to 2.99) in 1990 to 1.8 (1.41 to 2.18) in 2019, EAPC = - 1.23] and DALYs rates (from 171.7 (140.34 to 212.36) in 1990 to 144.4 (114.29 to 177.37) in 2019, EAPC = - 0.86) decreased for ischemic stroke in young adults in China. ASMR and ASDR decreased for all level 1 risk factors (including behavioral, environmental/occupational, and metabolic) from 1990 to 2019, with the slightest decrease for metabolic risks [ASMR from 1.86 (1.39 to 2.41) in 1990 to 1.53 (1.15 to 1.92) in 2019, ASDR from 133.68 (99.96 to 173.89) in 1990 to 123.54 (92.96 to 156.98) in 2019] and the largest decrease for environmental/occupational risks [ASMR from 1.57 (1.26 to 1.98) in 1990 to 1.03 (0.78 to 1.29) in 2019, ASDR from 110.91 (88.44 to 138.34) in 1990 to 80.03 (61.87 to 100.33) in 2019]. In general, high body-mass index, high red meat intake, and ambient particulate matter pollution contributed to the large increase in ASMR and ASDR between 1990 and 2019. Significant reductions in ASMR and ASDR were observed in low vegetables intake, household air pollution from solid fuels, lead exposure, and low fiber intake. In addition, there were sex differences in the ranking of ASMR attributable to risks in ischemic stroke. The disease burden of ischemic stroke attributable to relevant risk factors in young adults in China is greater and has a faster growth trend or a slower decline trend in males than in females (except for secondhand smoke). The apparent increasing trend of ASMR attributable to high fasting plasma glucose, high systolic blood pressure, high body-mass index, and high red meat intake was observed in males but not in females. The projected analysis showed an increasing trend in ASMR between 1990 and 2030 for all specific metabolic risks for males, but a decreasing trend for females. ASMR attributable to ambient particulate matter pollution showed an increasing trend from 1990 to 2030 for both males and females. The burden of ischemic stroke in young adults in China showed a downward trend from 1990 to 2019. Specific risk factors associated with the burden of ischemic stroke varied between the sexes. Corresponding measures need to be developed in China to reduce the disease burden of ischemic stroke among young adults.

Burden of diseases due to high systolic blood pressure in the Middle East and North Africa region from 1990 to 2019.

High systolic blood pressure (HSBP) is associated with several metabolic and non-metabolic disorders. This research aimed to document the deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) attributable to HSBP in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region between 1990 and 2019, by age, sex, underlying cause and socio-demographic index (SDI). We used the methodological framework and data drawn from the Global Burden of Disease study 2019 to identify the burden of diseases attributable to HSBP, from 1990 to 2019, in the MENA region. The estimates reported were presented as counts, population-attributable fractions, and age-standardised rates (per 100,000), along with 95% uncertainty intervals. In 2019, 803.6 thousand (687.1 to 923.8) deaths were attributed to HSBP in MENA, which accounted for 25.9% (22.9-28.6%) of all deaths. The number of regional DALYs caused by HSBP in 2019 was 19.0 million (16.3-21.9 million), which accounted for 11.6% (10.1-13.3%) of all DALYs, and was 23.4% (15.9-31.5%) lower than in 1990. The highest age-standardised DALY rate for 2019 was observed in Afghanistan, with the lowest in Kuwait. Additionally, the DALY rate in MENA rose with age for both sexs. Furthermore, a negative linear relationship was found between SDI and the age-standardised DALY rates. The region has a substantial HSBP-related burden. Policymakers and healthcare professionals should prioritize interventions that effectively promote the early detection of HSBP, access to quality healthcare, and lifestyle modifications to mitigate the HSBP burden in the MENA countries.

Thyroid cancer trends in China and its comparative analysis with G20 countries: Projections for 2020-2040.

Background: Thyroid cancer, a leading type of endocrine cancer, accounts for 3-4% of all cancer diagnoses. This study aims to analyse and compare thyroid cancer patterns in China and the Group twenty (G20) countries, and predict these trend for the upcoming two decades. Methods: This observational longitudinal study utilised data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 2019. We used metrics including incidence, mortality, mortality-incidence ratio (MIR), age-standardised rate (ASR) and average annual percent change (AAPC) to examine thyroid cancer trends. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to identify periods manifesting notable changes. The association between sociodemographic index (SDI) and AAPC were investigated. The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used to predict thyroid cancer trends from 2020 to 2040. Results: From 1990 to 2019, thyroid cancer incidence cases in China increased by 289.6%, with a higher AAPC of age-standardised incidence rate (ASIR) in men. Contrastingly, the G20 demonstrated a smaller increase, particularly among women over 50. Despite the overall age-standardised mortality rate (ASMR) was higher in the G20, the increase in mortality was less pronounced than in China. Age-standardised incidence rate increased across all age groups and genders, with a notable rise among men aged 15-49. ASMR decreased in specific age groups and genders, especially among women. Conversely, the ASMR significantly increased in group aged over 70. The MIR exhibited a declining trend, but this decrease was less noticeable in men and the group aged over 70. Joinpoint analysis pinpointed significant shifts in overall ASIR and ASMR, with the most pronounced increase in ASIR during 2003-2011 in China and 2003-2010 in the G20. Predictions suggested a continual ASIR uptrend, especially in the 50-69 age group, coupled with a predicted ASMR downturn among the elderly by 2040. Moreover, the proportion of thyroid cancer deaths attributable to high body mass index (BMI) escalated, with significant increase in Saudi Arabia and a rise to 7.4% in China in 2019. Conclusions: Thyroid cancer cases in incidence and mortality are escalating in both China and the G20. The increasing trend may be attributed to factors beyond overdiagnosis, including environmental and genetic factors. These findings emphasise the necessity for augmenting prevention, control, and treatment strategies. They also highlight the significance of international collaboration in addressing the global challenge posed by thyroid cancer.

Kidney cancer in the Middle East and North Africa region: a 30-year analysis (1990-2019).

Kidney cancer, a type of urogenital cancer, imposes a high burden on patients. Despite this, no recent research has evaluated the burden of this type of cancer in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. This study explored the burden of kidney cancer from 1990 to 2019 according to age, sex and socio-demographic index (SDI). The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 data was utilized to estimate the incidence, death, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) caused by kidney cancer. These estimates were reported as counts and as age-standardised rates with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). The estimated age-standardised incidence, mortality, and DALY rates of kidney cancer in 2019 were 3.2 (2.8-3.6), 1.4 (1.2-1.6), and 37.2 (32.0-42.6) per 100,000, respectively. Over the period from 1990 to 2019, these rates have increased by 98.0%, 48.9%, and 37.7%, respectively. In 2019, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Lebanon had the largest age-standardised incidence, mortality, and DALY rates. The smallest age-standardised incidence rates were seen in Yemen, Afghanistan, and the Syrian Arab Republic. Additionally, the smallest age-standardised mortality and DALY rates were observed in the Syrian Arab Republic, Yemen, and Morocco. The highest incidence rates were found among individuals aged 75-79 in both males and females. In 2019, the MENA/Global DALY ratio exceeded one for females aged 5-19 age and males aged 5-14, compared to 1990age groups in males. The burden of kidney cancer consistently rose with increasing SDI levels from 1990 to 2019. The increasing burden of kidney cancer highlights the urgent need for interventions aimed at improving early diagnosis and treatment in the region.

Distinct time trends in colorectal cancer incidence in countries with SDI levels from 1990 to 2019: an age-period-cohort analysis for the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study.

Introduction: The burden of colorectal cancer (CRC) plays a pivotal role in the global cancer epidemic. Our study reported the incidence trends in CRC and the associated effects of age, period, and birth cohort in 204 countries and territories over the past 30 years. Methods: The incidence data of CRC were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019. We performed the age-period-cohort (APC) model to estimate the overall annual percentage change (net drift) in the incidence rate, the annual percentage change by age group (local drift), and the relative risk (period and cohort effects) of the period and cohort in CRC during 1990-2019. This approach allows examining and distinguishing age, period, and cohort effects in incidence and potentially distinguishing colorectal cancer gaps in prevention and screening. Results: In 2019, the incidence of CRC was 2.17 (95% UI 2.00-2.34) million, of which China, the United States of America, and Japan had the highest incidence population, accounting for 45.9% of the global population. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) was 26.7 (95% UI 28.9-24.6) per 100,000 people, of which 30 countries had an incidence rate greater than 40.0 per 100,000 people. From 1990 to 2019, the middle SDI region had the largest increase in incidence rate, with a net drift of 2.33% (95% CI 2.2-2.46%, p < 0.001). Globally, the incidence population was concentrated in the age group of 50-69 years, and the age group of 30-34 years had the largest increase in incidence rate (local drift 1.19% (95% CI 1.01-1.37%)). At the same time, the sex and age distributions of CRC incidence had significant heterogeneity across regions and countries. In the past 30 years, the incidence rate in 31 countries has been well controlled (net drift <0), and most of them were concentrated in high-and high-middle-SDI regions, such as Australia, Czechia, and Belgium, and the relative risk of incidence generally improved over time and consecutive young birth cohorts. CRC incidence showed an unfavorable trend (net drift ≥1%) in 89 countries, of which 27 countries were more significant (net drift >2%), mostly concentrated in the middle SDI region, such as China, Mexico, and Brazil, and the risk of period and birth cohort was unfavorable. Conclusion: Globally, the incidence of CRC has shown an overall upward trend over the past 30 years, with the exception of some countries with higher SDI values. Significant age-period-cohort differences were observed in the risk of incidence in CRC worldwide. Effective prevention and control policies need to take into account the age-period-cohort effect characteristics of different regions.

Disease burden of breast cancer and risk factors in Europe 44 countries, 1990-2019: findings of the global burden of disease study 2019.

Background: Breast cancer (BC) represents a significant health challenge in Europe due to its elevated prevalence and heterogeneity. Despite notable progress in diagnostic and treatment methods, the region continues to grapple with rising BC burdens, with comprehensive investigations into this matter notably lacking. This study explores BC burden and potential contributing risk factors in 44 European countries from 1990 to 2019. The aim is to furnish evidence supporting the development of strategies for managing BC effectively. Methods: Disease burden estimates related to breast cancer from the Global Burden of Disease 2019(GBD2019) across Eastern, Central, and Western Europe were examined using Joinpoint regression for trends from 1990 to 2019. Linear regression models examined relationships between BC burden and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), healthcare access and quality (HAQ), and BC prevalence. We utilized disability-adjusted life year(DALY) proportions for each risk factor to depict BC risks. Results: In Europe, the BC burden was 463.2 cases per 100,000 people in 2019, 1.7 times the global burden. BC burden in women was significantly higher and increased with age. Age-standardized mortality and DALY rates of BC in Europe in 2019 decreased by 23.1%(average annual percent change: AAPC -0.92) and 25.9%(AAPC -1.02), respectively, compared to 1990, in line with global trends. From 1990 to 2019, age-standardized DALY declined faster in Western Europe (-34.8%, AAPC -1.49) than in Eastern Europe (-9.4%, AAPC -0.25) and Central Europe (-15.0%, AAPC -0.56). Monaco, Serbia, and Montenegro had the highest BC burden in Europe in 2019. BC burden was negatively correlated with HAQ. In addition, Alcohol use and Tobacco were significant risk factors for DALY. High fasting plasma glucose and obesity were also crucial risk factors that cannot be ignored in DALY. Conclusion: The burden of BC in Europe remains a significant health challenge, with regional variations despite an overall downward trend. Addressing the burden of BC in different regions of Europe and the increase of DALY caused by different risk factors, targeted prevention measures should be taken, especially the management of alcohol and tobacco should be strengthened, and screening services for BC should be popularized, and medical resources and technology allocation should be optimized.

Temporal and spatial trend analysis of all-cause depression burden based on Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 study.

Depression has been reported as one of the most prevalent psychiatric illnesses globally. This study aimed to obtain information on the global burden of depression and its associated spatiotemporal variation, by exploring the correlation between the global burden of depression and the social development index (SDI) and associated risk factors. Using data from the Global Burden of Disease study from 1990 to 2019, we described the prevalence and burden of disease in 204 countries across 21 regions, including sex and age differences and the relationship between the global disease burden and SDI. The age-standardized rate and estimated annual percentage change were used to assess the global burden of depression. Individuals with documented depression globally ranged from 182,183,358 in 1990 to 290,185,742 in 2019, representing an increase of 0.59%. More patients experienced major depressive disorder than dysthymia. The incidence and disability-adjusted life years of depression were the highest in the 60-64 age group and much higher in females than in males, with this trend occurring across all ages. The age-standardized incidence and adjusted life-years-disability rates varied with different SDI levels. Relevant risk factors for depression were identified. National governments must support research to improve prevention and treatment interventions.

Disease burden and risk factors of children aged 0-14 years in China: a retrospective study on data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to analyse the current status, trends and risk factors of disease burden from 1990 to 2019 among Chinese children. DESIGN AND PARTICIPANTS: It was a retrospective study on data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD 2019). Data of disease burden and risk factors were extracted from the GBD 2019. Children were divided into two groups of <5 and 5-14 years. Data were analysed using GBD results query tool, Excel and Pareto analysis. PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) and deaths. RESULTS: The overall disease burden for both children <5 years and those aged 5-14 years significantly decreased from 1990 to 2019. For children aged <5 years, in 2019, the leading cause of deaths and DALYs were 'neonatal disorders', and the top risk factor was 'low birth weight'. Compared with data of 1990, the ranking of causes of deaths and DALYs in 2019 saw the most significant increase for 'HIV/AIDS and sexually transmitted infections' and 'skin and subcutaneous diseases' respectively. Conversely, the ranking of deaths/DALYs causes that dropped most significantly was 'nutritional deficiencies'. For children aged 5-14, in 2019, the leading deaths and DALYs causes were 'unintentional injuries' and 'mental disorders' respectively. The top risk factors were 'alcohol use' and 'short gestation', respectively. The ranking of deaths and DALYs causes rose most significantly were 'HIV/AIDS and sexually transmitted infections' and 'neonatal disorders', respectively. Conversely, the ranking of deaths causes that dropped most significantly were 'other infectious diseases', 'enteric infections' and 'nutritional deficiencies'. For DALYs, the causes that dropped most significantly in ranking were 'other infectious diseases'. CONCLUSIONS: The disease burden of children has significantly changed from 1990 to 2019, with notable differences between children aged <5 and 5-14 years. To optimise the allocation of health resources, it is necessary to adjust management strategies based on the latest disease burden.