Future emergence of new ecosystems caused by glacial retreat.

Glacier shrinkage and the development of post-glacial ecosystems related to anthropogenic climate change are some of the fastest ongoing ecosystem shifts, with marked ecological and societal cascading consequences1-6. Yet, no complete spatial analysis exists, to our knowledge, to quantify or anticipate this important changeover7,8. Here we show that by 2100, the decline of all glaciers outside the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets may produce new terrestrial, marine and freshwater ecosystems over an area ranging from the size of Nepal (149,000 ± 55,000 km2) to that of Finland (339,000 ± 99,000 km2). Our analysis shows that the loss of glacier area will range from 22 ± 8% to 51 ± 15%, depending on the climate scenario. In deglaciated areas, the emerging ecosystems will be characterized by extreme to mild ecological conditions, offering refuge for cold-adapted species or favouring primary productivity and generalist species. Exploring the future of glacierized areas highlights the importance of glaciers and emerging post-glacial ecosystems in the face of climate change, biodiversity loss and freshwater scarcity. We find that less than half of glacial areas are located in protected areas. Echoing the recent United Nations resolution declaring 2025 as the International Year of Glaciers' Preservation9 and the Global Biodiversity Framework10, we emphasize the need to urgently and simultaneously enhance climate-change mitigation and the in situ protection of these ecosystems to secure their existence, functioning and values.

Sustainability, Collective Self-Regulation, and Human-Nature Interdependence.

Like any organism, humanity constructs its niche and adapts to the rest of nature by modifying available materials around them. In the era that some have dubbed the "Anthropocene," human niche construction has gone so far as to threaten the planetary climate system. The central question of sustainability is how humanity can collectively self-regulate niche construction, that is, humanity's relationship with the rest of nature. In this article, we argue that to resolve the collective self-regulation problem for sustainability, sufficiently accurate and relevant aspects of causal knowledge about the functioning of complex social-ecological systems need to be cognized, communicated, and collectively shared. More specifically, causal knowledge about human-nature interdependence-how humans interact with each other and the rest of nature-is critical for coordinating cognitive agents' thoughts, feelings, and actions for the greater good without falling into the trap of free riding. Here, we will develop a theoretical framework to consider the role of causal knowledge about human-nature interdependence in collective self-regulation for sustainability, review the relevant empirical research primarily focusing on climate change, and take stock of what is currently known and what we need to investigate in the future.