Estimation of cause-specific mortality in Rakai, Uganda, using verbal autopsy 1999-2019.

BACKGROUND: There are scant data on the causes of adult deaths in sub-Saharan Africa. We estimated the level and trends in adult mortality, overall and by different causes, in rural Rakai, Uganda, by age, sex, and HIV status. OBJECTIVES: To estimate and analyse adult cause-specific mortality trends in Rakai, Uganda. METHODOLOGY: Mortality information by cause, age, sex, and HIV status was recorded in the Rakai Community Cohort study using verbal autopsy interviews, HIV serosurveys, and residency data. We estimated the average number of years lived in adulthood. Using demographic decomposition methods, we estimated the contribution of each cause of death to adult mortality based on the average number of years lived in adulthood. RESULTS: Between 1999 and 2019, 63082 adults (15-60 years) were censused, with 1670 deaths registered. Of these, 1656 (99.2%) had completed cause of death data from verbal autopsy. The crude adult death rate was 5.60 (95% confidence interval (CI): 5.33-5.87) per 1000 person-years of observation (pyo). The crude death rate decreased from 11.41 (95% CI: 10.61-12.28) to 3.27 (95% CI: 2.89-3.68) per 1000 pyo between 1999-2004 and 2015-2019. The average number of years lived in adulthood increased in people living with HIV and decreased in HIV-negative individuals between 2000 and 2019. Communicable diseases, primarily HIV and Malaria, had the biggest decreases, which improved the average number of years lived by approximately extra 12 years of life in females and 6 years in males. There were increases in deaths due to non-communicable diseases and external causes, which reduced the average number of years lived in adulthood by 2.0 years and 1.5 years in females and males, respectively. CONCLUSION: There has been a significant decline in overall mortality from 1999 to 2019, with the greatest decline seen in people living with HIV since the availability of antiretroviral therapy in 2004. By 2020, the predominant causes of death among females were non-communicable diseases, with external causes of death dominating in males.

Main findings: There are significant declines in mortality in people living with HIV. However, mortality in HIV-negative people increased due to non-communicable diseases in females, and injuries and external causes of death among males.Added knowledge: In this HIV-endemic area, decreasing adult mortality has been documented over the last 20 years. This paper benchmarks the changes in cause-specific mortality in this area.Global health impact for policy action: As in many African countries, more effort is needed to reduce mortality for non-communicable diseases, injuries, and external causes of death as these seem to have been neglected.

Characteristics and outcomes of people living with HIV hospitalised at tertiary healthcare institutions during the COVID-19 pandemic in Mexico City.

BACKGROUND: While existing research on people living with HIV (PWH) during the COVID-19 pandemic primarily focused on their clinical outcomes, a critical gap remains in understanding the implications of COVID-19 delivery of in-hospital care services to PWH. Our study aimed to describe the characteristics and outcomes of PWH hospitalised during 2020 in Mexico City, comparing patients admitted due to COVID-19 vs. patients admitted due to other causes. METHODS: All PWH hospitalised for ≥ 24 h at four institutions in Mexico City from January 1st to December 31st, 2020 were included. Patients were classified into two groups according to the leading cause of their first hospitalisation: COVID-19 or non-COVID-19. Characteristics among groups were compared using chi-square and Kruskal tests. A Cox model was used to describe the risk of death after hospitalisation and the characteristics associated with this outcome. Mortality and hospitalisation events were compared to data from 2019. RESULTS: Overall, we included 238 PWH hospitalised in 2020. Among them, 42 (18%) were hospitalised due to COVID-19 and 196 (82%) due to non-COVID-19 causes, mainly AIDS-defining events (ADE). PWH hospitalised due to COVID-19 had higher CD4 + cell counts (380 cells/mm3 [IQR: 184-580] vs. 97 cells/mm3 [IQR: 34-272], p < 0.01) and a higher proportion of virologic suppression (VS) compared to those hospitalised due to non-COVID-19 causes (92% vs. 55%, p < 0.01). The adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) for AIDS was 3.1 (95%CI: 1.3-7.2). COVID-19 was not associated with death (aHR 0.9 [95%CI: 0.3-2.9]). Compared to 2019, mortality was significantly higher in 2020 (19% vs. 9%, p < 0.01), while hospitalisations decreased by 57%. CONCLUSIONS: PWH with COVID-19 had higher VS and CD4 + cell counts and lower mortality compared to those hospitalised due to non-COVID-19-related causes, who more often were recently diagnosed with HIV and had ADEs. Most hospitalisations and deaths in 2020 in PWH were related to advanced HIV disease. The increased mortality and decreased hospitalisations of PWH during 2020 evidence the impact of the interruption of health services delivery for PWH with advanced disease due to the pandemic. Our findings highlight the challenges faced by PWH during 2020 in a country where advanced HIV remains a concern.

The effect of care interruptions on mortality in adults resuming antiretroviral therapy.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the relative rate of all-cause mortality amongst those on antiretroviral treatment (ART) with a history of interruptions compared with those with no previous interruptions in care. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. METHODS: We used data from four South African cohorts participating in the International epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS Southern Africa collaboration. We included adults who started ART between 2004 and 2019. We defined a care interruption as a gap in contact longer than 180 days. Observation time prior to interruption was allocated to a 'no interruption' group. Observation time after interruption was allocated to one of two groups based on whether the first interruption started before 6 months of ART ('early interruption') or later ('late interruption'). We used Cox regression to estimate hazard ratios. RESULTS: Sixty-three thousand six hundred and ninety-two participants contributed 162 916 person-years of observation. There were 3469 deaths. Most participants were female individuals (67.4%) and the median age at ART initiation was 33.3 years (interquartile range: 27.5-40.7). Seventeen thousand and eleven (26.7%) participants experienced care interruptions. Those resuming ART experienced increased mortality compared with those with no interruptions: early interrupters had a hazard ratio of 4.37 (95% confidence interval (CI) 3.87-4.95) and late interrupters had a hazard ratio of 2.74 (95% CI 2.39-3.15). In sensitivity analyses, effect sizes were found to be proportional to the length of time used to define interruptions. CONCLUSION: Our findings highlight the need to improve retention in care, regardless of treatment duration. Programmes to encourage return to care also need to be strengthened.

Patient characteristics and predictors of mortality among children hospitalised with tuberculosis: A six-year case series study in Uganda.

BACKGROUND: The high case-fatality rates among children with tuberculosis (TB) are reportedly driven by in-hospital mortality and severe forms of TB. Therefore, there is need to better understand the predictors of mortality among children hospitalised with TB. We examined the patient clinical profiles, length of hospital stay from date of admission to date of final admission outcome, and predictors of mortality among children hospitalised with TB at two tertiary hospitals in Uganda. METHODS: We conducted a case-series study of children below 15 years of age hospitalised with TB, from January 1st, 2016, to December 31st, 2021. Convenience sampling was done to select TB cases from paper-based medical records at Mulago National Referral Hospital (MNRH) in urban Kampala, and Fort Portal Regional Referral Hospital (FRRH) in rural Fort Portal. We fitted linear and logistic regression models with length of stay and in-hospital mortality as key outcomes. RESULTS: Out of the 201 children hospitalised with TB, 50 were at FRRH, and 151 at MNRH. The male to female ratio was 1.5 with median age of 2.6 years (Interquartile range-IQR 1-6). There was a high prevalence of HIV (67/171, 39%), severe malnutrition reported as weight-for-age Z-score <-3SD (51/168, 30%). Among children with pulmonary TB who initiated anti-tuberculosis therapy (ATT) either during hospitalisation or within seven days prior to hospitalisation; cough (134/143, 94%), fever (111/143, 78%), and dyspnoea (78/143, 55%) were common symptoms. Children with TB meningitis commonly presented with fever (17/24, 71%), convulsions (14/24 58%), and cough (13/24, 54%). The median length of hospital stay was 8 days (IQR 5-15). Of the 199 children with known in-hospital outcomes, 34 (17.1%) died during hospitalisation. TB meningitis was associated with in-hospital mortality (aOR = 3.50, 95% CI = 1.10-11.17, p = 0.035), while male sex was associated with reduced mortality (aOR = 0.33, 95% CI = 0.12-0.95, p = 0.035). Hospitalisation in the urban hospital predicted a 0.48-day increase in natural log-transformed length of hospital stay (ln-length of stay) (95% CI 0.15-0.82, p = 0.005), but not age, sex, HIV, malnutrition, or TB meningitis. CONCLUSIONS: In-hospital mortality was high, and significantly driven almost four times higher by TB meningitis, with longer hospital stay among children in urban hospitals. The high in-hospital mortality and long hospital stay may be reduced by timely TB diagnosis and treatment initiation among children.

Projected Life Expectancy for Adolescents With HIV in the US.

Importance: Life expectancy is a key measure of overall population health. Life expectancy estimates for youth with HIV in the US are needed in the current HIV care and treatment context to guide health policies and resource allocation. Objective: To compare life expectancy between 18-year-old youth with perinatally acquired HIV (PHIV), youth with nonperinatally acquired HIV (NPHIV), and youth without HIV. Design, Setting, and Participants: Using a US-focused adolescent-specific Monte Carlo state-transition HIV model, we simulated individuals from age 18 years until death. We estimated probabilities of HIV treatment and care engagement, HIV progression, clinical events, and mortality from observational cohorts and clinical trials for model input parameters. The simulated individuals were 18-year-old race and ethnicity-matched youth with PHIV, youth with NPHIV, and youth without HIV; 47%, 85%, and 50% were assigned male sex at birth, respectively. Individuals were categorized by US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention-defined HIV acquisition risk: men who have sex with men, people who ever injected drugs, heterosexually active individuals at increased risk for HIV infection, or average risk for HIV infection. Distributions were 3%, 2%, 12%, and 83% for youth with PHIV and youth without HIV, and 80%, 6%, 14%, and 0% for youth with NPHIV, respectively. Among the simulated youth in this analysis, individuals were 61% Black, 24% Hispanic, and 15% White, respectively. Exposures: HIV status by timing of acquisition. Main Outcomes: Life expectancy loss for youth with PHIV and youth with NPHIV: difference between mean projected life expectancy under current and ideal HIV care scenarios compared with youth without HIV. Uncertainty intervals reflect varying adolescent HIV-related mortality inputs (95% CIs). Results: Compared with youth without HIV (life expectancy: male, 76.3 years; female, 81.7 years), male youth with PHIV and youth with NPHIV had projected life expectancy losses of 10.4 years (95% CI, 5.5-18.1) and 15.0 years (95% CI, 9.3-26.8); female youth with PHIV and youth with NPHIV had projected life expectancy losses of 11.8 years (95% CI, 6.4-20.2) and 19.5 years (95% CI, 13.8-31.6), respectively. When receiving ideal HIV care, life expectancy losses were projected to improve for youth with PHIV (male: 0.5 years [95% CI, 0.3-1.8]: female: 0.6 years [95% CI, 0.4-2.1]) but were projected to persist for youth with NPHIV (male: 6.0 years [95% CI, 5.0-9.1]; female: 10.4 years [95% CI, 9.4-13.6]). Conclusions: This adolescent-focused microsimulation modeling analysis projected that youth with HIV would have shorter life expectancy than youth without HIV. Projected differences were larger for youth with NPHIV compared with youth with PHIV. Differences in mortality by sex at birth, sexual behavior, and injection drug use contributed to lower projected life expectancy among youth with NPHIV. Interventions focused on HIV care and social factors are needed to improve life expectancy for youth with HIV in the US.

The predictive accuracy of machine learning for the risk of death in HIV patients: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Early prediction of mortality in individuals with HIV (PWH) has perpetually posed a formidable challenge. With the widespread integration of machine learning into clinical practice, some researchers endeavor to formulate models predicting the mortality risk for PWH. Nevertheless, the diverse timeframes of mortality among PWH and the potential multitude of modeling variables have cast doubt on the efficacy of the current predictive model for HIV-related deaths. To address this, we undertook a systematic review and meta-analysis, aiming to comprehensively assess the utilization of machine learning in the early prediction of HIV-related deaths and furnish evidence-based support for the advancement of artificial intelligence in this domain. METHODS: We systematically combed through the PubMed, Cochrane, Embase, and Web of Science databases on November 25, 2023. To evaluate the bias risk in the original studies included, we employed the Predictive Model Bias Risk Assessment Tool (PROBAST). During the meta-analysis, we conducted subgroup analysis based on survival and non-survival models. Additionally, we utilized meta-regression to explore the influence of death time on the predictive value of the model for HIV-related deaths. RESULTS: After our comprehensive review, we analyzed a total of 24 pieces of literature, encompassing data from 401,389 individuals diagnosed with HIV. Within this dataset, 23 articles specifically delved into deaths during long-term follow-ups outside hospital settings. The machine learning models applied for predicting these deaths comprised survival models (COX regression) and other non-survival models. The outcomes of the meta-analysis unveiled that within the training set, the c-index for predicting deaths among people with HIV (PWH) using predictive models stands at 0.83 (95% CI: 0.75-0.91). In the validation set, the c-index is slightly lower at 0.81 (95% CI: 0.78-0.85). Notably, the meta-regression analysis demonstrated that neither follow-up time nor the occurrence of death events significantly impacted the performance of the machine learning models. CONCLUSIONS: The study suggests that machine learning is a viable approach for developing non-time-based predictions regarding HIV deaths. Nevertheless, the limited inclusion of original studies necessitates additional multicenter studies for thorough validation.

Opioid and other drug use and drug-related mortality as indicators of Hepatitis C and Human Immunodeficiency Virus in Oklahoma.

OBJECTIVES: Outbreaks of injection drug use (IDU)-associated infections have become major public health concerns in the era of the opioid epidemic. This study aimed to (1) identify county-level characteristics associated with acute HCV infection and newly diagnosed IDU-associated HIV in Oklahoma and (2) develop a vulnerability index using these metrics. METHODS: This study employs a county-level ecological design to examine those diagnosed with acute or chronic HCV or newly diagnosed IDU-associated HIV. Poisson regression was used to estimate the association between indicators and the number of new infections in each county. Primary outcomes were acute HCV and newly diagnosed IDU-associated HIV. A sensitivity analysis included all HCV (acute and chronic) cases. Three models were run using variations of these outcomes. Stepwise backward Poisson regression predicted new infection rates and 95% confidence intervals for each county from the final multivariable model, which served as the metric for vulnerability scores. RESULTS: Predictors for HIV-IDU cases and acute HCV cases differed. The percentage of the county population aged 18-24 years with less than a high school education and population density were predictive of new HIV-IDU cases, whereas the percentage of the population that was male, white, Pacific Islander, two or more races, and people aged 18-24 years with less than a high school education were predictors of acute HCV infection. Counties with the highest predicted rates of HIV-IDU tended to be located in central Oklahoma and have higher population density than the counties with the highest predicted rates of acute HCV infection. CONCLUSIONS: There is high variability in county-level factors predictive of new IDU-associated HIV infection and acute HCV infection, suggesting that different public health interventions need to be tailored to these two case populations.

Poor long-term outcomes despite improved hospital survival for patients with cryptococcal meningitis in rural, Northern Uganda.

BACKGROUND: Cryptococcal meningitis (CM) remains a major cause of death among people living with HIV in rural sub-Saharan Africa. We previously reported that a CM diagnosis and treatment program (CM-DTP) improved hospital survival for CM patients in rural, northern Uganda. This study aimed to evaluate the impact on long-term survival. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective study at Lira Regional Referral Hospital in Uganda evaluating long-term survival (≥1 year) of CM patients diagnosed after CM-DTP initiation (February 2017-September 2021). We compared with a baseline historical group of CM patients before CM-DTP implementation (January 2015-February 2017). Using Cox proportional hazards models, we assessed time-to-death in these groups, adjusting for confounders. RESULTS: We identified 318 CM patients, 105 in the Historical Group, and 213 in the CM-DTP Group. The Historical Group had a higher 30-day mortality of 78.5% compared to 42.2% in the CM-DTP Group. The overall survival rate for the CM-DTP group at three years was 25.6%. Attendance at follow-up visits (HR:0.13, 95% CI: [0.03-0.53], p <0.001), ART adherence (HR:0.27, 95% CI: [0.10-0.71], p = 0.008), and fluconazole adherence: (HR:0.03, 95% CI: [0.01-0.13], p <0.001), weight >50kg (HR:0.54, 95% CI: [0.35-0.84], p = 0.006), and performance of therapeutic lumbar punctures (HR:0.42, 95% CI: [0.24-0.71], p = 0.001), were associated with lower risk of death. Altered mentation was associated with increased death risk (HR: 1.63, 95% CI: 1.10-2.42, p = 0.016). CONCLUSION: Long-term survival of CM patients improved after the initiation of the CM-DTP. Despite this improved survival, long-term outcomes remained sub-optimal, suggesting that further work is needed to enhance long-term survival.

Demographic and clinical factors correlated with clinical outcomes among people with HIV treated by antiretroviral therapy: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: As is known, CD4 cell count is a significant parameter predicting HIV progression, opportunistic infections and death in HIV-infected individuals, as well was an important indicator for initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART). In China's National Free Antiretroviral Treatment Program, people with HIV (PWH) on ART can receive a CD4 count test at least once every six months. Importantly, the baseline CD4 count (before ART initiation) is significantly correlated with ART and even prognosis, but the influence of the peak CD4 cell count on ART and/or clinical outcomes is still unknown. METHODS: A retrospective study was conducted among 7965 PWH who received ART from October 2003 to September 2022 at Yunnan Infectious Disease Hospital. Clinical features and laboratory data were collected and analyzed by Chi-square test, univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis. After elimination of confounding variables, multivariate Cox regression analysis was performed to identify survival-related factors. RESULTS: Of a total of 7965 PWH in the ART treatment cohort who met the inclusion and exclusion criteria, 7939 were finally included in the subsequent analyses. First, it was found that the proportion of clinical variables, including sex, age distribution, interval from diagnosis to ART initiation, marital status, and others, was significantly different between the living and dead groups (P < 0.05). Impressively, significantly more PWH had the higher level of baseline, peak and recent CD4 cell counts in the living group compared to those in the dead group. Due to multicollinearity effect, after excluding confounders, the following factors were found to be significantly associated with mortality by multivariate Cox regression analysis: (1) male sex (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.268 [1.032, 1.559]; P = 0.024); (2) time from HIV confirmation to ART initiation ≥ 6 months (HR = 1.962 [1.631, 2.360]; P < 0.001); (3) peak CD4 cell count: Peak CD4 < 100cells/µL group (HR = 16.093 [12.041, 21.508]; P < 0.001), 100cells/µL ≤ x < 200cells/µL group (HR = 7.904 [6.148, 10.160]; P < 0.001), 200cells/µL ≤ x < 350cells/µL group (HR = 3.166 [2.519, 3.980]; P < 0.001), 350cells/µL ≤ x < 500cells/µL group (HR = 1.668 [1.291, 2.155]; P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Interestingly, patients in male, time from HIV confirmation to ART initiation ≥ 6 months, or peak CD4 count < 500 cells/µl had inferior clinical outcomes, in other word, a lower peak CD4 cell count significantly increased the risk of death, and peak CD4 cell was independent in predicting the overall survival of PWH. It is important to promote "early diagnosis and treatment of HIV" and regularly monitor CD4 levels in HIV/AIDS to evaluate the efficacy of ART and immune reconstitution, and optimize the ART regimen in time to further reduce the mortality of PWH.

Mortality and its predictors among human immunodeficiency virus-infected children younger than 15 years receiving antiretroviral therapy in Ethiopia: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Despite antiretroviral treatment (ART), the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) continues to pose a considerable health burden in resource-poor countries. This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to determine the pooled incidence density of mortality and identify potential predictors among HIV-infected children receiving ART, from studies conducted in various parts of Ethiopia. METHODS: A comprehensive database search was made in Excerpta Medica, PubMed, Web of Science, African Journals Online, Google Scholar, and Scopus. We reported results following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis 2020. Excel Spreadsheet and STATA Version 14 software were used for data abstraction and meta-analysis, respectively. Statistical heterogeneity among studies was assessed using I2 statistics. Meta-regression and subgroup analysis were performed to further explore the sources of statistical heterogeneity. Moreover, publication bias and a leave-out-one sensitivity analysis were performed. RESULTS: Twenty-two articles involving 8,731 participants met inclusion criteria and were included. The pooled incidence density of mortality was 3.08 (95% confidence interval (CI), 2.52 to 3.64) per 100 child years. Predictors of mortality were living in rural areas (hazard ratio (HR), 2.18 [95% CI, 1.20 to 3.98]), poor adherence to ART (HR, 2.85 [ 95% CI, 1.39 to 5.88]), failure to initiate co-trimoxazole preventive therapy (HR, 2.16 [95% CI, 1.52 to 3.07]), anemia (HR, 2.28 [95% CI, 1.51 to 3.45]), opportunistic infections (HR, 1.52 [ 95% CI, 1.15 to 2.00]), underweight (HR, 1.74 [95% CI, 1.26 to 2.41]), wasting (HR, 2.54 [95% CI, 1.56 to 4.16]), stunting (HR, 2.02 [95% CI, 1.63 to 2.51]), World Health Organization classified HIV clinical stages III and IV (HR, 1.71 [95% CI, 1.42 to 2.05]), and Nevirapine-based regimens (HR, 3.91 [95% CI, 3.09 to 4.95]). CONCLUSIONS: This study found that the overall mortality rate among HIV-infected children after ART initiation was high. Therefore, high-level commitment and involvement of responsible caregivers, healthcare providers, social workers, and program managers are of paramount importance to identify these risk factors and thus enhance the survival of HIV-infected children receiving ART.

Statistical analysis on the incidence and predictors of death among second-line ART patients in public hospitals of North Wollo and Waghemira Zones, Ethiopia, 2021.

Acquired immune deficiency virus, caused by the human immunodeficiency virus, is a significant global health concern. Sub-Saharan Africa particularly Ethiopia faces a high prevalence of human immunodeficiency virus. In low-income settings like Ethiopia, early mortality rates are elevated due to severe opportunistic infections and advanced disease at Anti-retroviral treatment initiation. Despite available treatments, delayed treatment initiation among Human Immunodeficiency Virus -infected individuals in Africa, including Ethiopia, leads to disease progression and increased mortality risk. This study aimed to identify the factors contributing to the death of HIV patients under treatment at second line regimen in public hospitals of North Wollo and Waghemira Zones. A retrospective cohort study with 474 patients was conducted in selected hospitals of North Wollo and Waghemira Zones. A parametric Weibull regression model was employed, and the adjusted hazard ratio served as the measure of association. Variables significantly affected the outcome of the study was determined at a p-value < 0.05, along with a 95% confidence interval for the variables. The patients were within the average age of 38.6(standard deviation ± 12.5) years and majority (45.57%) had no formal education. The overall death incidence rate among second-line anti-retroviral treatment patients was 1.98 per 100-person years [95% CI 1.4-2.9%]. Poor adherence to antiretroviral treatment, male gender, and being underweight significantly increased the hazard of death. Conversely, increased anti-retroviral treatment duration had a significant and negative impact, reducing the hazard of death among patients. The study reveals a high incidence of death among second line anti-retroviral treatment users. Independent predictors include poor adherence, male gender, and underweight status, all significantly increasing the risk of death. On the positive side, the hazard of death decreases with longer anti-retroviral treatment duration. A critical concern and counseling should be given for better ART adherence, to change their nutritional status and for males.

Mortality among extrapulmonary tuberculosis patients in the HIV endemic setting: lessons from a tertiary level hospital in Mbeya, Tanzania.

Extrapulmonary tuberculosis (EPTB) has received less attention than pulmonary tuberculosis due to its non-contagious nature. EPTB can affect any organ and is more prevalent in people living with HIV. Low- and middle-income countries are now facing the double burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and HIV, complicating the management of patients with symptoms that could be compatible with both EPTB and NCDs. Little is known about the risk of death of patients presenting with symptoms compatible with EPTB. We included patients with a clinical suspicion of EPTB from a tertiary level hospital in Mbeya, Tanzania, to assess their risk of dying. A total of 113 (61%) patients were classified as having EPTB, and 72 (39%) as having non-TB, with corresponding mortality rates of 40% and 41%. Associated factors for mortality in the TB groups was hospitalization and male sex. Risk factors for hospitalization was having disease manifestation at any site other than lymph nodes, and comorbidities. Our results imply that NCDs serve as significant comorbidities amplifying the mortality risk in EPTB. To strive towards universal health coverage, focus should be on building robust health systems that can tackle both infectious diseases, such as EPTB, and NCDs.

Predicting mortality within 1 year of ART initiation in children and adolescents living with HIV in sub-Saharan Africa: a retrospective observational cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Differentiated service delivery (DSD) for children and adolescents living with HIV can improve targeted resource use. We derived a mortality prediction score to guide clinical decision making for children and adolescents living with HIV. METHODS: Data for this retrospective observational cohort study were evaluated for all children and adolescents living with HIV and initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART); aged 0-19 years; and enrolled at Baylor clinics in Eswatini, Malawi, Lesotho, Tanzania, and Uganda between 2005 and 2020. Data for clinical prediction, including anthropometric values, physical examination, ART, WHO stage, and laboratory tests were captured at ART initiation. Backward stepwise variable selection and logistic regression were performed to develop predictive models for mortality within 1 year of ART initiation. Probabilities of mortality were generated, compared with true outcomes, internally validated, and evaluated against WHO advanced HIV criteria. FINDINGS: The study population included 16 958 children and adolescents living with HIV and initiated on ART between May 18, 2005, and Dec 18, 2020. Predictive variables for the most accurate model included: age, CD4 percentage, white blood cell count, haemoglobin concentration, platelet count, and BMI Z score as continuous variables, and WHO clinical stage and oedema, abnormal muscle tone and respiratory distress on examination as categorical variables. The area under the curve (AUC) of the predictive model was 0·851 (95% CI 0·839-0·863) in the training set and 0·822 (0·800-0·845) in the test set, compared with 0·606 (0·595-0·617) for the WHO advanced HIV criteria (p<0·0001). INTERPRETATION: This study evaluated a large, multinational population to derive a mortality prediction tool for children and adolescents living with HIV. The model more accurately predicted clinical outcomes than the WHO advanced HIV criteria and has the potential to improve DSD for children and adolescents living with HIV in high-burden settings. FUNDING: National Institute of Health Fogarty International Center.

Survival status and its predictors among undernourished children on antiretroviral therapy in Bahir Dar city, Northwest Ethiopia, 2010 - 2020, a multicenter retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: In environments with limited resources, undernutrition is a serious public health risk. Its dual relationship to human immunodeficiency virus infection (HIV) leads to crises in a child's physical, emotional, social, and economic spheres of life. Nevertheless, little research has been done on the survival rate and risk factors that lead to poor survival outcomes in undernourished children receiving antiretroviral therapy. This study sought to evaluate survival status and its predictors among undernourished children on antiretroviral therapy (ART) in public health facilities, Bahir Dar city, September 1, 2010 - December 31, 2020. METHODS: An institution-based retrospective cohort study design was used among 414 study participants from September 1, 2010 - December 31, 2020. A simple random sampling method was applied to select study participants. All collected data were entered into epi data version 4.6 and exported to STATA version 14.0 for analysis. Each independent predictor variable with a p-value < 0.05 in the multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression was considered statistically significant. RESULTS: The overall incidence of mortality was 11.6 deaths per 1000 child year observation (95%CI: 7.7- 17.5). Baseline weight for age < -3 Z score (adjusted hazard ratio (AHR) = 4.9, 95% CI: 1.30-18.98), height for age < -3 Z score (AHR = 4.34, 95%CI 1.13-16.6), cotrimoxazole prophylaxis given (AHR = 0.27, 95%CI 0.08-0.87), hemoglobin level < 10 g/dl (AHR = 3.7, 95%CI 1.1-12.7), CD4 cells < threshold (AHR = 4.86, 95%CI 1.9-12.7), and WHO clinical disease stage III and IV (AHR = 8.1, 95%CI 1.97-33) were found independent predictors of mortality. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION: The incidence of mortality was determined in the study to be 11.6 per 1000 child years. Mortality was predicted by severe stunting, severe underweight, a low hemoglobin level, a low CD4 count, and WHO clinical stages III and IV. But the risk of death is reduced by starting cotrimoxazole preventative therapy early. The risk factors that result in a low survival status should be the primary focus of all concerned bodies, and early cotrimoxazole preventive treatment initiation is strongly recommended.

Survival and mortality profile among people living with HIV in a cohort in the Northeastern region of Brazil.

Conditions related to the acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) are still a significant cause of morbidity and mortality among people living with HIV (PLHIV). Longer survival in this population were reported to increase the risk of developing noncommunicable chronic diseases (NCDs). This study aimed to estimate the survival and causes of death according to age group and sex among PLHIV monitored at two referral centers in the Northeastern Brazil. This is a prospective, retrospective cohort with death records from 2007 to 2018, based on a database that registers causes of death using the International Classification of Disease (ICD-10), which were subsequently coded following the Coding Causes of Death in HIV (CoDe). A total of 2,359 PLHIV participated in the study, with 63.2% being men, with a follow-up period of 13.9 years. Annual mortality rate was 1.46 deaths per 100 PLHIV (95% CI: 1.33 - 1.60) with a frequency of 20.9%. Risk of death for men increased by 49% when compared to women, and the risk of death in PLHIV increased by 51% among those aged 50 years and over at the time of diagnosis. It was observed that 73.5% accounted for AIDS-related deaths, 6.9% for non-AIDS defining cancer, 6.3% for external causes, and 3.2% for cardiovascular diseases. Among the youngest, 97.2% presented an AIDS-related cause of death. Highest frequency of deaths from neoplasms was among women and from external causes among men. There is a need for health services to implement strategies ensuring greater adherence to treatment, especially among men and young people. Moreover, screening for chronic diseases and cancer is essential, including the establishment of easily accessible multidisciplinary care centers that can identify and address habits such as illicit drug use and alcoholism, which are associated with violent deaths.

[Meningeal cryptococcosis in patients living with HIV. Experience in intensive care]. / Criptococosis meníngea en pacientes viviendo con HIV. Experiencia en cuidados intensivos.

INTRODUCTION: Meningeal cryptococcosis (MC) is a frequent cause of meningoencephalitis in people living with HIV (PLHIV), leading to substantial morbidity (20-55%). Clinical characteristics, lethality and adverse prognostic factors in PLHIV with MC admitted to intensive care units (ICUs) are described. METHODS: A retrospective observational study. Period from 11/21/2006 to 05/24/2023. It involved 154 adult PLHIV diagnosed with MC and admitted to ICUs. Percentages and absolute values were compared by Chi-Square or Fisher's test and medians by Mann-Whitney test. The association with mortality was assessed by logistic regression. SPSS 23.0 software was used. A p-value <0.05 was considered significant. RESULTS: Patients who died and those who survived were comparable in age and sex (p>0.05). Univariate analysis showed that impaired functional and nutritional status, lack of previous highly active antiretroviral therapy, CD4 <100 cells, APACHE II ≥ 13 and a PLHIV prognostic score ≥ 8 points, requiring mechanical ventilation (MV), respiratory failure, renal failure, neurological dysfunction or sepsis could be associated (p<0.05) with mortality. Logistic regression established that impaired functional and nutritional status, a PLHIV prognostic score ≥ 8, need for MV and presence of sepsis would be independent variables associated with mortality. CONCLUSION: The results indicate that altered functional and nutritional status, a PLHIV prognostic score ≥ 8 points, requiring MV and suffering sepsis on admission to the ICU are more frequent in deceased patients, and they could therefore serve as independent variables to predict a higher risk of mortality.

Introducción: La criptococosis meníngea (CM) es una causa frecuente de meningoencefalitis en personas que viven con HIV (PVHIV) y produce una importante morbimortalidad (20-55%). Se describen las características clínicas, la letalidad y las variables de mal pronóstico en PVHIV con CM, en unidades de cuidados intensivos (UCI). Métodos: Estudio observacional y retrospectivo. Período 21/11/2006 a 24/05/2023. Población evaluada: 154 PVHIV adultos, admitidos en UCI con diagnóstico de CM. Los porcentajes y valores absolutos, fueron comparados mediante Chi-Cuadrado o test de Fisher y las medianas mediante test de Mann-Whitney. La asociación con mortalidad se evaluó por regresión logística. Se utilizó el programa SPSS 23.0. Un valor p<0.05 fue considerado significativo. Resultados: Los pacientes que fallecieron y los que sobrevivieron fueron comparables en edad y sexo (p>0.05). El análisis univariado, observó que un estado funcional y nutricional alterado, falta de tratamiento antirretroviral previo (TARV), CD4 <100 células/µl, APACHE II ≥ 13 y un score pronóstico de PVHIV ≥ 8 puntos, requerir ventilación mecánica (VM), sufrir insuficiencia respiratoria, renal, disfunción neurológica o sepsis, podrían estar asociados (p<0.05) con mortalidad. La regresión logística estableció que un estado funcional y nutricional alterado, un score pronóstico PVHIV ≥ 8, necesitar VM y sufrir sepsis serían variables independientes asociadas a mortalidad. Conclusión: Los resultados indican que el estado funcional y nutricional alterado, un score pronóstico PVHIV ≥ 8 puntos, requerir VM y sufrir sepsis al ingreso a UCI podrían servir como variables independientes para predecir un mayor riesgo de mortalidad.

Cumulative exposure to depressive symptoms and all-cause mortality among adults with HIV in Kenya, Nigeria, Tanzania, and Uganda.

OBJECTIVE: We estimated the effects of cumulative exposure to depressive symptoms on risk of all-cause mortality among people with HIV (PWH) in four African countries. DESIGN: An analysis of prospective cohort data. METHODS: The African Cohort Study (AFRICOS) is a prospective cohort of people receiving care at twelve clinics in Kenya, Nigeria, Tanzania, and Uganda. Every 6 months from January 2013 to May 2020, participants underwent laboratory monitoring, structured surveys, and assessment of depressive symptom severity using the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale (CES-D). All-cause mortality was the outcome of interest. The predictor of interest was a time-updated measure of the percentage of days lived with depression (PDD). Marginal structural Cox proportional hazards regression models were used, adjusting for potential confounders including time-varying alcohol use, drug use, and viral load. RESULTS: Among 2520 enrolled participants, 1479 (59%) were women and the median age was 38 (interquartile range [IQR]: 32-46). At enrollment, 1438 (57%) were virally suppressed (<200 copies/ml) and 457 (18%) had CES-D at least 16, indicating possible depression. Across 9093 observed person-years, the median PDD was 0.7% (IQR: 0-5.9%) with 0.8 deaths per 100 person-years. Leading causes of death included cancer (18% of deaths) and accidents (14%). Models suggested that each 25% absolute increase in PDD was associated with a 69% increase in the risk of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio: 1.69; 95% confidence interval: 1.18-2.43). CONCLUSION: Cumulative exposure to depressive symptoms was substantially associated with the risk of mortality in this cohort of PWH in Africa.