Long-term exposure to ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and attributable pulmonary tuberculosis notifications in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, China: a health impact assessment.

INTRODUCTION: Long-term exposure to fine particulate matter (≤2.5 µm (PM2.5)) has been associated with pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) notifications or incidence in recent publications. Studies quantifying the relative contribution of long-term PM2.5 on TB notifications have not been documented. We sought to perform a health impact assessment to estimate the PM2.5- attributable TB notifications during 2007-2017 in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region (NHAR), China. METHODS: PM2.5 attributable TB notifications were estimated at township level (n=358), stratified by age group and summed across NHAR. PM2.5-associated TB-notifications were estimated for total and anthropogenic PM2.5 mass and expressed as population attributable fractions (PAFs). The main analysis used effect and uncertainty estimates from our previous study in NHAR, defining a counterfactual of the lowest annual PM2.5 (30 µg/m3) level, above which we assumed excess TB notifications. Sensitivity analyses included counterfactuals based on the 5th (31 µg/m3) and 25th percentiles (38 µg/m3), and substituting effect estimates from a recent meta-analysis. We estimated the influence of PM2.5 concentrations, population growth and baseline TB-notification rates on PM2.5 attributable TB notifications. RESULTS: Over 2007-2017, annual PM2.5 had an estimated average PAF of 31.2% (95% CI 22.4% to 38.7%) of TB notifications while the anthropogenic PAF was 12.2% (95% CI 9.2% to 14.5%). With 31 and 38 µg/m3 as counterfactuals, the PAFs were 29.2% (95% CI 20.9% to 36.3%) and 15.4% (95% CI 10.9% to 19.6%), respectively. PAF estimates under other assumptions ranged between 6.5% (95% CI 2.9% to 9.6%) and 13.7% (95% CI 6.2% to 19.9%) for total PM2.5, and 2.6% (95% CI 1.2% to 3.8%) to 5.8% (95% CI 2.7% to 8.2%) for anthropogenic PM2.5. Relative to 2007, overall changes in PM2.5 attributable TB notifications were due to reduced TB-notification rates (-23.8%), followed by decreasing PM2.5 (-6.2%), and population growth (+4.9%). CONCLUSION: We have demonstrated how the potential impact of historical or hypothetical air pollution reduction scenarios on TB notifications can be estimated, using public domain, PM2.5 and population data. The method may be transferrable to other settings where comparable TB-notification data are available.

The Use of Health Equity Impact Assessments to Modify Evidence Based Strategies within Local Health Departments in North Carolina.

BACKGROUND: Health equity impact assessments (HEIAs) inform the reduction of health inequities by evaluating programs or policies that affect target populations. Local health departments (LHD) receiving funding through the Improving Community Outcomes for Maternal and Child Health (ICO4MCH) Program conducted HEIAs for evidence-based strategies (EBSs). This paper describes the impact of HEIAs on the implementation of EBSs and highlights lessons learned during implementation of HEIA modifications. METHODS: We conducted a content analysis using data from the HEIA Modification Tracker and focus groups to identify themes and lessons learned. RESULTS: Fifteen HEIAs were conducted by five LHDs between 2016 and 2020. The most common modifications to EBS implementation were 1) increasing education and training for community members and 2) altering messaging mediums and language to reach intended audiences. DISCUSSION: Health equity impact assessments serve as a systematic and tangible way to center health equity, reflect on past processes, and inform improvements.

The Performance of Environmental and Health Impact Assessment Implementation: A Case Study in Eastern Thailand.

Environmental impact assessment (EIA) performance has remained of interest, and over the past ten years, the evaluation technique has evolved. Thailand implemented an EIA with a health impact assessment (HIA) as an environmental health impact assessment (EHIA), which necessitated investigating and developing these instruments; however, its implementation performance has been questioned. The main goal of this study is to comparatively assess how well EIAs and EHIAs are performed in projects in an area in Thailand. Six projects in various sectors that were implemented in Eastern Thailand were studied. The 162 residents (nine local authorities and 153 villagers) closest to the project completed a survey and evaluated the performance according to three aspects (i.e., substantive, procedural, and transactive), using a rating scale and evaluation checklists. The results were presented as a percentage of the total scores and interpreted according to the five scales. The overall performance reached a satisfactory level, albeit not significantly different between cases; however, it was pointed out that the shortcomings of EHIAs and EIAs, particularly their dependability, lack of public involvement, and the need for more transparency, could be addressed through the establishment of an open access database, which would help to simplify the assessment of all stages of EIAs and EHIAs.

Risk-based public health impact assessment for drinking water contamination emergencies.

Chemical spills in surface waters pose a significant threat to public health and the environment. This study investigates the public health impacts associated with organic chemical spill emergencies and explores timely countermeasures deployable by drinking water facilities. Using a dynamic model of a typical multi-sourced New England drinking water treatment facility and its distribution network, this study assesses the impacts of various countermeasure deployment scenarios, including source switching, enhanced coagulation via poly­aluminum chloride (PACl), addition of powdered activated carbon (PAC), and temporary system shutdown. This study reveals that the deployment of multiple countermeasures yields the most significant reduction in total public health impacts, regardless of the demand and supply availability. With the combination PAC deployed first with other countermeasures proving to be the most effective strategies, followed by the combination of facility shutdowns. By understanding the potential public health impacts and evaluating the effectiveness of countermeasures, authorities can develop proactive plans, secure additional funding, and enhance their capacity to mitigate the consequences of such events. These insights contribute to safeguarding public health and improving the resilience of drinking water systems in the face of the ever-growing threat of chemical spills.

Health impact assessment of the surface water pollution in China.

China suffers from severe surface water pollution. Health impact assessment could provide a novel and quantifiable metric for the health burden attributed to surface water pollution. This study establishes a health impact assessment method for surface water pollution based on classic frameworks, integrating the multi-pollutant city water quality index (CWQI), informative epidemiological findings, and benchmark public health information. A relative risk level assignment approach is proposed based on the CWQI, innovatively addressing the challenge in surface water-human exposure risk assessment. A case study assesses the surface water pollution-related health impact in 336 Chinese cities. The results show (1) between 2015 and 2022, total health impact decreased from 3980.42 thousand disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) (95 % Confidence Interval: 3242.67-4339.29) to 3260.10 thousand DALYs (95 % CI: 2475.88-3641.35), measured by total cancer. (2) The annual average health impacts of oesophageal, stomach, colorectal, gallbladder, and pancreatic cancers added up to 2621.20 thousand DALYs (95 % CI: 2095.58-3091.10), revealing the significant health impact of surface water pollution on digestive cancer. (3) In 2022, health impacts in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and surroundings, the Yangtze River Delta, and the middle reaches of the Yangtze River added up to 1893.06 thousand DALYs (95 % CI: 1471.82-2097.88), showing a regional aggregating trend. (4) Surface water pollution control has been the primary driving factor to health impact improvement, contributing -3.49 % to the health impact change from 2015 to 2022. It is the first city-level health impact map for China's surface water pollution. The methods and findings will support the water management policymaking in China and other countries suffering from water pollution.

Determining the Public Health Impact of Climate Change: A National Study Using a Health Impact Assessment Approach in Wales.

Objective: Climate change is recognised as the biggest threat to global health of the 21st century and impacts on health and wellbeing through a range of factors. Due to this, the need to take action in order to protect population health and wellbeing is becoming ever more urgent. Methods: In 2019, Public Health Wales carried out a comprehensive mixed-method Health Impact Assessment (HIA) of climate change. Unlike other risk assessments, it appraised the potential impact of climate change on health and inequalities in Wales through participatory workshops, stakeholder consultations, systematic literature reviews and case studies. Results: The HIA findings indicate potential impacts across the wider determinants of health and wellbeing. For example, air quality, excess heat/cold, flooding, economic productivity, infrastructure, and community resilience. A range of impacts were identified across population groups, settings, and geographical areas. Conclusion: These findings can inform decision-makers to prepare for climate change plans and policies using an evidence-informed approach. The work has demonstrated the value of a HIA approach by mobilising a range of evidence through a transparent process, resulting in transferrable learning for others.

Health impact assessment of PM2.5 from uncovered coal trains in the San Francisco Bay Area: Implications for global exposures.

Coal generates almost 40% of the world's electricity with 80 countries throughout the world using coal power. An inherent part of this generation is the rail transport of coal in uncovered cars, often up to a mile long. Existing studies document the subsequent increments of PM2.5 to the near-rail populations, which typically include a large number of economically disadvantaged residents and/or people of color. However, to date there is no assessment of the health implications of this stage in the use of coal. The present study quantifies such impacts on a region in the San Francisco Bay Area. The analysis shows important effects on mortality, hospitalization for cardiovascular and respiratory disease, asthma exacerbation, work loss, and days of restricted activity. Several of these outcomes exhibited a one to six percent increase over baseline. As such, it delineates the implications for the global effects of the transport of coal.

Health implications of urban tree canopy policy scenarios in Denver and Phoenix: A quantitative health impact assessment.

BACKGROUND: Urban tree canopy (UTC) goals are a popular policy to increase urban vegetation, support climate strategies, and encourage a healthy environment. Health studies related to UTC are needed across cities to support evidence-based decision-making. METHODS: We used a quantitative Health Impact Assessment (HIA) to model the annual number of premature deaths prevented, and the number of stroke and dementia cases, under UTC goals in Denver, Colorado, and Phoenix, Arizona, USA, using standing policy goals (20% and 25% UTC, respectively) and 50% ("half-way") attainment scenarios from current levels (16.5% and 13% UTC, respectively), using publicly accessible national datasets, and a proportional representation of UTC change to standardize across methodologies. We estimated UTC health impacts by relating UTC with scenario-based changes in the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and considered health equity in UTC distributions and benefits. RESULTS: We projected that at 2020 populations, uniform 20% UTC attainment across Denver block groups would avert 200 (95% uncertainty interval: (UI) 100, 306) annual premature deaths among adults 18 and older, along with 4.1 (95% UI: 2.2, 6.7) annual cases of stroke (adults ≥35), and 2.6 (95% UI: 1.5, 4.1) cases of dementia (adults ≥65), with "halfway" attainment from current levels (16.5% UTC) capturing ∼64% of these benefits. In Phoenix, uniform 25% UTC would annually prevent 368 (95% UI: 181, 558) premature deaths, 8.7 (95% UI: 4.7, 13.9) cases of stroke, and 5,1 (95% UI: 2.9, 8.0) of dementia, with the "halfway" scenario (17% UTC) achieving ∼44% of these results. Both cities saw significantly different greenspace exposures and health outcomes by socioeconomic vulnerability. Denver had more spatially and socioeconomically heterogeneous projected health benefits than Phoenix. CONCLUSIONS: Implementing UTC goals can prevent excess mortality and chronic diseases among urban residents. UTC goals can be used as a health promotion and prevention tool.

Wood heater smoke and mortality in the Australian Capital Territory: a rapid health impact assessment.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the number of deaths and the cost of deaths attributable to wood heater smoke in the Australian Capital Territory. STUDY DESIGN: Rapid health impact assessment, based on fine particulate matter (PM2.5 ) data from three outdoor air pollution monitors and published exposure-response functions for natural cause mortality attributed to PM2.5 exposure. SETTING: Australian Capital Territory (population, 2021: 454 000), 2016-2018, 2021, and 2022 (2019 and 2020 excluded because of the impact of extreme bushfires on air quality). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Proportion of PM2.5 exposure attributable to wood heaters; numbers of deaths and associated cost of deaths (based on the value of statistical life: $5.3 million) attributable to wood heater smoke. RESULTS: Wood heater emissions contributed an estimated 1.16-1.73 µg/m3 to the annual mean PM2.5 concentration during the three colder years (2017, 2018, 2021), or 17-25% of annual mean exposure, and 0.72 µg/m3 (15%) or 0.89 µg/m3 (13%) during the two milder years (2016, 2022). Using the most conservative exposure-response function, the estimated annual number of deaths attributable to wood heater smoke was 17-26 during the colder three years and 11-15 deaths during the milder two years. Using the least conservative exposure-response function, an estimated 43-63 deaths per year (colder years) and 26-36 deaths per year (milder years) were attributable to wood heater smoke. The estimated annual equivalent cost of deaths was $57-136 million (most conservative exposure-response function) and $140-333 million (least conservative exposure-response function). CONCLUSIONS: The estimated annual number of deaths in the ACT attributable to wood heater PM2.5 pollution is similar to that attributed to the extreme smoke of the 2019-20 Black Summer bushfires. The number of wood heaters should be reduced by banning new installations and phasing out existing units in urban and suburban areas.

Impact of a research-action on vaccination indicators in the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil / Impacto de uma pesquisa-ação nos indicadores vacinais em Minas Gerais

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE Analyze the impact of the state research-action project on immunization indicators (vaccination coverage - VC, homogeneity of vaccination coverage - HVC, dropout rate - DR, and risk rating) before and after the intervention in municipalities and priority Regional Health Administrations/Regional Health Superintendencies (RHA/RHS). METHODS The state research-action project was a before-after community clinical trial conducted in 212 municipalities belonging to eight RHA/RHS in the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil. The study sample comprised RHA/RHS with a decreasing trend for routine vaccination coverage in children under one year from 2015 to 2020. This study used secondary VC and DR data from 10 immunobiologicals recommended for children younger than two years from January to December 2021 (pre-intervention period, prior to the state research-action project) and from January to December 2022 (post-intervention period). The categorical variables were presented in proportions, and initially, a comparison was made between those of DR, HVC, and the risk rating for the transmission of vaccine-preventable diseases, according to the two periods (2021 and 2022), using the McNemar test. RESULTS All immunization indicators increased after conducting the research-action project. In 2021, 80.66% of the state's municipalities had a risk rating for the transmission of vaccine-preventable diseases as "high and very high." In 2022, the value reduced to 68.40%. CONCLUSIONS Risk rating for the transmission of vaccine-preventable diseases is an important mechanism to assist managers in defining priorities. The state research-action project used a method that enabled the construction and execution of unique action plans for each municipality, directing the improvement of immunization indicators in the state.

RESUMO OBJETIVO Analisar o impacto do projeto estadual de pesquisa-ação nos indicadores de imunização (coberturas vacinais - CV, homogeneidade de cobertura vacinal - HCV, taxa de abandono - TA e classificação de risco) antes e após a intervenção em municípios e Gerências Regionais de Saúde/Superintendências Regionais de Saúde (GRS/SRS) prioritários. MÉTODOS O projeto estadual de pesquisa-ação foi um ensaio clínico comunitário, do tipo antes-depois, realizado em 212 municípios pertencentes a oito GRS/SRS do estado de Minas Gerais, Brasil. Compuseram a amostra do estudo as SRS/GRS com tendência decrescente para a cobertura vacinal de rotina em crianças menores de 1 ano, no período de 2015 a 2020. Neste estudo, foram utilizados dados secundários de CV e TA de 10 imunobiológicos recomendados para crianças menores de 2 anos, no período de janeiro a dezembro de 2021 (período pré-intervenção, anterior ao projeto estadual de pesquisa-ação) e de janeiro a dezembro de 2022 (período pós-intervenção). As variáveis categóricas foram apresentadas em proporções e, inicialmente, realizou-se a comparação entre as de TA, HCV e a classificação de risco para a transmissão de doenças imunopreveníveis, segundo os dois períodos (2021 e 2022), utilizando-se o teste McNemar. RESULTADOS Observou-se um aumento de todos os indicadores de imunização após a realização do projeto de pesquisa-ação. No ano de 2021, 80,66% dos municípios do estado tiveram a classificação de risco para transmissão de doenças imunopreveníveis como "alto e muito alto risco". Em 2022, o valor foi reduzido para 68,40%. CONCLUSÕES A classificação de risco para transmissão de doenças imunopreveníveis é um mecanismo importante para auxiliar os gestores na definição de prioridades. O projeto estadual de pesquisa-ação empregou um método que possibilitou a construção e a execução de planos de ação singulares a cada município, direcionando a melhoria dos indicadores de imunização no estado.

Urban green spaces and behavioral and cognitive development in children: A health impact assessment of the Barcelona "Eixos Verds" Plan (Green Axis Plan).

BACKGROUND: Urban environments lack natural features, while nature exposure in cities has been associated with health benefits, including children's neurodevelopment. Through extensive street greening, Barcelona's Eixos Verds (Green Axis) Plan enhances safety, environment, and climate resilience. We aimed to assess the Eixos Verds Plan's potential impact on children's behavioral and cognitive development due to the increased green space expected under the Eixos Verds implementation. METHODS: We performed a quantitative health impact assessment for Barcelona children at census-tract level (n = 1068). We assessed the Eixos Verds Plan's impact by comparing baseline green space distribution with the proposed plan, translating it into percentage green area (%GA) and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). By combining these exposure metrics with child-specific risk estimates and population data, we estimated potential improvements in children's behavioral and cognitive development due to full Eixos Verds implementation. RESULTS: With the full Eixos Verds implementation, citywide, %GA increased by 6.9% (IQR: 6.4%; range: 0-23.1%) and NDVI by 0.065 (IQR: 0.083; range: 0.000-0.194). Child behavioral and cognitive development outcomes are expected to improve compared to the baseline. Based on NDVI increases, children's Total Difficulties and Hyperactivity/Inattention scores, based on the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ), are projected to decrease by 5% (95% CI: 0-15%) and 6% (95% CI: 0-17%). Working Memory and Superior Working Memory scores are expected to increase by 4% and 5%, respectively, based on the computerized n-back test, while the Inattentiveness score could be reduced by 1%, based on the computerized attentional test (ANT). INTERPRETATION: Urban greening as planning tool can improve behavioral and cognitive development in city children. Methods and results of our study are applicable to many cities worldwide, and similar results for children of real-life urban greening interventions can be expected.

Developing a climate change inequality health impact assessment for health services.

OBJECTIVES: To develop a Climate Change Inequality Health Impact Assessment (CCIHIA) framework for health services; to provide a systematic process for assessing potential unequal health impacts of climate change on vulnerable and marginalised populations and places; to support effective planning to address these impacts; and to develop contextually appropriate local strategies. Type of program: A collaborative interdisciplinary scoping research project involving two universities and two local health districts (LHDs) in New South Wales (NSW) to develop a CCIHIA framework. This work builds upon the health impact assessment (HIA) approach, which systematically assesses proposals' potential health and equity impacts by involving stakeholders in developing responses. METHODS: The project involved four main activities: understanding stakeholder requirements; conceptualising climate change vulnerability; considering the role of health services; and integrating findings into a conceptual framework. RESULTS: Stakeholders identified key functions that should be addressed across the framing, process and utility of the CCIHIA framework. The resulting conceptual framework outlines contexts and social stratification, the differential impacts of climate change (including factors influencing unequal impacts) and the health system's position, and also identifies key potential points of intervention. LESSONS LEARNT: The challenge of addressing the complexity of factors and resulting health impacts is reflected within the CCIHIA framework. While there are many intervention points within this framework for health services to address, many factors influencing unequal impacts are created outside the health sector's direct control. The framework's development process reflected the focus on collaboration and the interdisciplinary nature of climate change response. Ultimately, the CCIHIA framework is an assessment tool and an approach for prioritising inclusive, cross-cutting, multisector working, and problem-solving.

Health Impact Assessment in protected areas: a proposal for urban contexts in Brazil.

The use of Health Impact Assessment (HIA) in the establishment of an urban protected area can enhance the positive impacts and mitigate the negative impacts resulting from its implementation. Brazil hosts some of the most important biodiversity hotspots in the world and the HIA may benefit biodiversity and human health. These areas are commonly created without any preceding survey to assess their impacts on health. Protected areas located in urban zones are essential to maintain environmental balance and quality of life in cities. It promotes positive impacts on health, providing ecosystem services and salutogenic benefits. However, they can generate negative impacts such as the violation of human rights, property speculation, spread of vectorial diseases, and psychosocial stress. Based on the identification of the potential impacts of urban protected areas on health and best practices, this qualitative and exploratory study justifies the use of HIA in urban protected areas, especially in the Brazil, and indicates the main elements for the construction of a methodological approach to contribute to the Sustainable Development Goals and one of its alternatives, the Buen Vivir approach.

Health Equity Impact Assessment (HEIA) reporting tool: developing a checklist for policymakers.

INTRODUCTION: Health Equity Impact Assessment (HEIA) is a decision support tool that shows users how a new program, policy, or innovation affects health equity in different population groups. Various HEIA reporting and dissemination tools are available, nevertheless, a practical standard tool to present the results of HEIA in an appropriate period to policymakers is lacking. This work reports the development of a tool (a checklist) for HEIA reporting at the decision-making level, aiming to promote the application of HEIA evidence for improving health equity. METHODS: This is a mixed-method study that was carried out over four stages in 2022-2023: 1) identifying HEIA models, checklists, and reporting instruments; 2) development of the initial HEIA reporting checklist; 3) checklist validation; and 4) piloting the checklist. We also analyzed the Face, CVR, and CVI validity of the tool. RESULTS: We developed the initial checklist through analysis of 53 included studies and the opinions of experts. The final checklist comprised five sections: policy introduction (eight subsections), managing the HEIA of policy (seven subsections), scope of the affected population (three subsections), HEIA results (seven subsections), and recommendations (three subsections). CONCLUSION: Needs assessment, monitoring during implementation, health impact assessment, and other tools such as monitoring outcome reports, appraisals, and checklists are all methods for assessing health equity impact. Other equity-focused indicators, such as the equity lens and equity appraisal, may have slightly different goals than the HEIA. Similarly, the formats for presenting and publishing HEIA reports might vary, depending on the target population and the importance of the report.

Current status and influencing factors of policy identification in health impact assessment: a case study of Zhejiang Province.

BACKGROUND: Health impact assessment (HIA) is a procedure, method and tool for evaluating the potential health impacts of policies, plans and construction projects, as well as the distribution of these impacts on population. Majority of international studies on health impact assessment have focussed on conceptual papers or case evaluations, neglecting participants' views on policies. METHODS: A semi-structured interview with 30 health impact assessment experts was employed in this study, and the Nvivo software was utilized to analyse factors that influence policy identification. Subsequently, a multi-stage stratified random sampling method was adopted to survey 655 pilot staff members involved in health impact assessment in Zhejiang Province. Descriptive statistics were used to describe the current status and identify the factors influencing policy identification. In addition, hierarchical linear regression analysis and structural equation modelling were employed to determine the relationship between policy identification and influencing factors. RESULTS: Statistically significant differences were found among participants in the level of identification of policies across three dimensions. The policy sentiment dimension had the highest score (4.137 ± 0.664), followed by policy cognition (4.075 ± 0.632) and policy evaluation (3.631 ± 0.797) dimensions. Subject trust had a positive impact on policy cognition (ß = 0.503, P < 0.001), policy sentiment (ß = 0.504, P < 0.001) and policy evaluation (ß = 0.465, P < 0.001). Procedural justice had a positive impact on policy sentiment (ß = 0.085, P < 0.01) and policy evaluation (ß = 0.084, P < 0.05), but not policy cognition (ß = 0.056, P > 0.05). Policy identification is influenced by age and average monthly salary among other factors. CONCLUSION: These results highlight the importance of subjective trust and procedural justice in policy identification of health impact assessment. They provide valuable insights to developing interventions to overcome barriers to the implementation and enhancement of global identification of policies. Going forward, cross-sectoral synergies, enhanced international communication and training to increase participants' trust in the policy should be optimized to improve health impact assessment. Additional measures should be taken, such as ensuring seamless communication channels, embedding health impact assessment in administrative mechanisms, and establishing strong oversight and grievance mechanisms to improve fairness and transparency in the implementation and results of health impact assessment.

Projections of mortality risk attributable to short-term exposure to landscape fire smoke in China, 2021-2100: a health impact assessment study.

BACKGROUND: Landscape fire smoke, including smoke from all vegetation burning in natural and cultural landscapes, remains a threat to the health of the population. However, the future health impacts of landscape fire smoke in China have not been sufficiently investigated. We aimed to estimate the mortality risk attributable to landscape fire-related PM2·5 under different scenarios. METHODS: In this health impact assessment study, we used the projected population and landscape fire-related PM2·5 concentration to calculate deaths attributable to short-term exposure to landscape fire smoke PM2·5 during 2021-2100. We did the analysis in three defined future periods: 2021-40 (near term), 2051-70 (medium term), and 2081-2100 (long term), with 1986-2005 as the historical period. We used fire-specific short-term epidemiological functions with the regional parameters specific to China. We assessed the mortality risks of landscape fire-related smoke and further identified their spatiotemporal distribution under two shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios: SSP1-2·6, an optimistic scenario with strict control of carbon emissions, and SSP2-4·5, an intermediate scenario with weaker control of carbon emissions. FINDINGS: The national mortality rate attributable to short-term exposure (ie, a few days) to landscape fire-related PM2·5 is projected to increase compared with historical values. The national deaths attributable to landscape fire smoke PM2·5 could peak in 2021-40, with increases of 28·10% (95% CI 14·08-53·11) under the SSP1-2·6 scenario and 37·38% (14·08-53·11) under the SSP2-4·5 scenario. Deaths would then decrease slightly during 2051-70 and 2081-2100. The provinces with the highest projected number of deaths attributable to landscape fire-related PM2·5 are located in east and south-central China, and those with the largest percentage increase in projected deaths are located in northwest and southwest China. INTERPRETATION: Our results suggest that global warming could increase the contribution of landscape fire smoke to the total PM2·5 concentration, leading to an increase in the mortality rate in China. Our findings could help policy makers implement effective interventions in hotspot areas during different periods to reduce the impact of landscape fire smoke on human health. FUNDING: The National Natural Science Foundation of China, National Key Research and Development Program of China, and the Wellcome Trust.

[The mortality cost of carbon dioxide emissions from a steel plant in Southern Italy: a climate change health impact assessment]. / Il "mortality cost" delle emissioni di CO2 di uno stabilimento siderurgico nel Sud Italia: una valutazione degli impatti sanitari derivanti dal cambiamento climatico.

OBJECTIVES: to quantify the temperature-related global health impacts of the Taranto steel plant CO2e emissions. DESIGN: using the risk functions available in the literature, a prospective global health impact assessment of the marginal CO2e emissions declared by the steel plant for 2020 was conducted. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: world population in the period 2020-2100. MAIN OUTCOMES MEASURES: deaths in the period 2020-2100 attributable to the marginal CO2e emitted by the Taranto steel plant in 2020. RESULTS: considering the central estimates in the baseline emission scenario (4.1°C warming by 2100), the Taranto steel plant 2020 CO2e emissions will cause 1,876 deaths worldwide between 2020 and 2100. The largest part will be attributable to steelmaking processes, accounting for 1,093 deaths. The same emissions will cause 5.56 × 10-4 deaths worldwide between 2020 and 2100 per tonne of steel produced in 2020, i.e. one death for every 1,799 tonnes of steel. If the 2020 CO2e emissions of the steel plant had been reduced by 25%, 50% or 75%, the deaths avoided in the world in the period 2020-2100 would have been 469, 938 and 1,407 respectively. CONCLUSIONS: estimates predict a probably significant mortality impact worldwide by the end of the century associated with the greenhouse gases emissions of the Taranto steel plant. Just reducing emissions by 50% in a single year could maybe avoid over 900 deaths worldwide by the end of the century. This confirms the importance of implementing incisive policies to reduce greenhouse gases emissions in all sectors.

New concentration-response functions for seven morbidity endpoints associated with short-term PM2.5 exposure and their implications for health impact assessment.

BACKGROUND: Morbidity burdens from ambient air pollution are associated with market and non-market costs and are therefore important for policymaking. The estimation of morbidity burdens is based on concentration-response functions (CRFs). Most existing CRFs for short-term exposures to PM2.5 assume a fixed risk estimate as a log-linear function over an extrapolated exposure range, based on evidence primarily from Europe and North America. OBJECTIVES: We revisit these CRFs by performing a systematic review for seven morbidity endpoints previously assessed by the World Health Organization, including data from all available regions. These endpoints include all cardiovascular hospital admission, all respiratory hospital admission, asthma hospital admission and emergency room visit, along with the outcomes that stem from morbidity, such as lost work days, respiratory restricted activity days, and child bronchitis symptom days. METHODS: We estimate CRFs for each endpoint, using both a log-linear model and a nonlinear model that includes additional parameters to better fit evidence from high-exposure regions. We quantify uncertainties associated with these CRFs through randomization and Monte Carlo simulations. RESULTS: The CRFs in this study show reduced model uncertainty compared with previous CRFs in all endpoints. The nonlinear CRFs produce more than doubled global estimates on average, depending on the endpoint. Overall, we assess that our CRFs can be used to provide policy analysis of air pollution impacts at the global scale. It is however important to note that improvement of CRFs requires observations over a wide range of conditions, and current available literature is still limited. DISCUSSION: The higher estimates produced by the nonlinear CRFs indicates the possibility of a large underestimation in current assessments of the morbidity impacts attributable to air pollution. Further studies should be pursued to better constrain the CRFs studied here, and to better characterize the causal relationship between exposures to PM2.5 and morbidity outcomes.

Health impact assessment after Danio rerio long-term exposure to environmentally relevant concentrations of metformin and guanylurea.

The antidiabetic drug metformin (MET) and its metabolite guanylurea (GUA) have been frequently and ubiquitously detected in surface water. Consequently, there has been a consistent rise in studying the toxicity of MET and GUA in fish over the past decade. Nonetheless, it is noteworthy that no study has assessed the harmful effects both compounds might trigger on fish blood and organs after chronic exposure. Taking into consideration the data above, our research strived to accomplish two primary objectives: Firstly, to assess the effect of comparable concentrations of MET and GUA (1, 40, 100 µg/L) on the liver, gills, gut, and brain of Danio rerio after six months of flow-through exposure. Secondly, to compare the outcomes to identify which compound prompts more significant oxidative stress and apoptosis in organs and blood parameter alterations. Herein, findings indicate that both compounds induced oxidative damage and increased the expression of genes associated with apoptosis (bax, bcl2, p53, and casp3). Chronic exposure to MET and GUA also generated fluctuations in glucose, creatinine, phosphorus, liver enzymes, red and white blood count, hemoglobin, and hematocrit levels. The observed biochemical changes indicate that MET and GUA are responsible for inducing hepatic damage in fish, whereas hematological alterations suggest that both compounds cause anemia. Considering GUA altered to a more considerable extent the values of all endpoints compared to the control group, it is suggested transformation product GUA is more toxic than MET. Moreover, based on the above evidence, it can be inferred that a six-month exposure to MET and GUA can impair REDOX status and generate apoptosis in fish, adversely affecting their essential organs' functioning.