The Israeli anesthesiology workforce crisis: a reassessment survey.

BACKGROUND: Anesthesiologists provide crucial anesthesiology services in the operating room and non-operating room locations. Combined with an aging and growing Israeli population, there is an increasing demand for anesthesiology services. A previous study performed in 2005 showed that most anesthesiologists are immigrant physicians with few Israeli medical school graduates. Since then, physician immigration decreased, many have retired and demand for anesthesia services has increased while insufficient numbers of new anesthesiologists were trained, leading to a shortage, limiting surgeries and other procedures in many hospitals. The present study examined the composition of the Israeli anesthesiology workforce in 2021and compared it to the 2005 workforce. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey of demographic and professional information about each Israeli hospital anesthesiologists was solicited from 34 anesthesiology department chairs responsible for 36 Israeli acute care hospitals. RESULTS: There are 1313 anesthesiologists in the 36 hospitals, resulting in a ratio of 14.2 anesthesiologists per 100,000 population. 22.6% of anesthesiologists will reach retirement age over the next ten years. The proportion of female anesthesiologists was 28.7%. While Israeli medical school graduates increased to 18.1% from 12.2% in 2005, non-Israeli citizens and non-permanent residents comprised 8.5% of the workforce. CONCLUSIONS: Despite growth in the ratio of anesthesiologists per population, a workforce shortage is expected to worsen over the next ten years due to retirements, shortened call hours, and the Yatziv reform which bans graduates of certain overseas medical schools from obtaining Israeli Medical Licenses. The current workforce has compensated for the existing shortage of anesthesiologists by enlisting non-Israeli trainees from overseas. Yet, it is crucial to maintain and enlarge the local Israeli workforce to forestall a worsening shortage.

Current and future workforce of general internal medicine in Switzerland: a cross-sectional study.

AIM OF THIS STUDY: General internal medicine is a crucial element in healthcare systems. Understanding how many people are and will be working in this field is important to maintain and improve quality for patients in healthcare systems. This can provide a basis for political decisions. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional study to analyse the current and future workforce of generalists (general practitioners and internists in hospitals) in Switzerland. The Swiss Society of General Internal Medicine (SSGIM) distributed a survey to all members. Respondents were asked about their current average workload in 2023 and planned workload in 2033. The responses were used to calculate full-time equivalent (FTE) for the current and future workforce of generalists and to extrapolate FTE for all active SSGIM members. To model the demand by 2033, we derived different scenarios. RESULTS: Of all 6,232 active SSGIM members, 2,030 (33%) participated: 46% female, 25% (largest age group) 56-65 years old, 19% still in postgraduate training. The average workload in 2023 was 78% for female and 87% for male generalists; the FTE extrapolated to all active SSGIM members in 2023 was 5,246. By 2033, 1,935 FTEs (36%) will retire, 502 FTEs (10%) will reduce their workload, 116 FTEs (2%) will increase their workload and 2,800 FTEs (53%) will remain in the workforce with the same workload as in 2023. To maintain the same workforce as in 2023, 2,321 new FTEs (44%) will be needed by 2033. To fill this gap of 232 FTE new generalists per year, we modelled different scenarios with assumptions of interest, workload, migration and dropouts. CONCLUSIONS: Within only one decade, 44% of the current workforce of generalists will disappear, mainly due to retirement and decreased workload. To fill this gap, various scenarios need to be incorporated. Politicians are called upon to create the political framework to create attractive training and working conditions for generalists to address the future demand for healthcare services.

Update and projections for New Zealand's ophthalmology workforce.

AIM: The aim of this study was to update and project the growth of ophthalmologists in New Zealand. This will help decision makers better understand the current ophthalmologist workforce and make appropriate resource allocations. METHOD: Supply and demographics of ophthalmologists in New Zealand were obtained from the Medical Council of New Zealand, Health Workforce New Zealand and Health New Zealand - Te Whatu Ora. Ophthalmology trainee numbers were extracted from the annual reports of the Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Ophthalmologists (RANZCO). New Zealand population statistics were extracted from the Stats NZ database. A simulation model was developed to project the growth of ophthalmologists from 2024 to 2050. RESULTS: In March 2023, there were 175 practising ophthalmologists in New Zealand. Overall, there were 34.0 ophthalmologists per million population, with 201.4 ophthalmologists per million for those aged ≥65 years. To maintain the current ratio, an additional 20 practising ophthalmologists are needed by 2050. CONCLUSION: The ratio of ophthalmologists per million population aged ≥65 years is projected to drop by 1.5% annually. To meet the demand of an increasing and ageing population, and RANZCO's goal of 40 ophthalmologists per million population, there needs to be an increase in ophthalmologist training positions from the current 5-year average of 6.6 to 11 new trainees annually, and a more effective distribution of the ophthalmologist workforce.

Neurosurgical Workforce of Nepal.

BACKGROUND: Historical data and a partial description of the ongoing neurosurgical scenario in Nepal were reported and published earlier. However, updated data on neurosurgical manpower in Nepal has not yet been published. This study aims to explore the neurosurgical workforce in Nepal involved in different administrative territories and in different health sectors. METHODS: This is a cross-sectional descriptive study. A nationwide survey was conducted through personal communication from April to September of 2023. Data on neurosurgeons in all 7 provinces of the country and the major sectors of the health services were collected. Similarly, the number of neurosurgeons in the country every year from 1988 was also collected. RESULTS: Through September 2023, there are 114 actively practicing neurosurgeons in the country for the population of 29,164,578, meaning 1 neurosurgeon serving about 255,829 people. Neurosurgeons are available in all 7 provinces of the country. More than half of the neurosurgeons in the country are fully involved in private practice while about one-third are in medical college and less than one-fifth are in the government service. The capital city has more than half of the neurosurgeons of the country. CONCLUSIONS: The number of neurosurgeons in the country is still small, however its ratio with population is better than most of the other South Asian countries. In a short period of time, neurosurgical service flourished significantly in Nepal and is available in all the provinces and thus it has become more easily accessible.

Closing the Chasm: Understanding and Addressing the Anesthesia Workforce Supply and Demand Imbalance.

The imbalance in anesthesia workforce supply and demand has been exacerbated post-COVID due to a surge in demand for anesthesia care, especially in non-operating room anesthetizing sites, at a faster rate than the increase in anesthesia clinicians. The consequences of this imbalance or labor shortage compromise healthcare facilities, adversely affect the cost of care, worsen anesthesia workforce burnout, disrupt procedural and surgical schedules, and threaten academic missions and the ability to educate future anesthesiologists. In developing possible solutions, one must examine emerging trends that are affecting the anesthesia workforce, new technologies that will transform anesthesia care and the workforce, and financial considerations, including governmental payment policies. Possible practice solutions to this imbalance will require both short- and long-term multifactorial approaches that include increasing training positions and retention policies, improving capacity through innovations, leveraging technology, and addressing financial constraints.

Pre-Pandemic Landscape of the Oklahoma Public Health Workforce: A Case Study From the Region 6 Training Needs Assessment Survey, 2019.

CONTEXT: The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the need for a well-trained public health workforce prior to the public health crisis. Public health training centers regularly assess workforce needs and their pre-pandemic data play vital roles in guiding public health workforce development beyond the crisis. PROGRAM: In 2019, Oklahoma partners of the Region 6 South Central Public Health Training Center (R6SCPHTC) co-conducted an online survey of the public health workforce located in the Health Resources & Services Administration Region 6. IMPLEMENTATION: Between March and April, the R6SCPHTC collected 503 surveys, including 201 surveys from Oklahoma. Questions inquired about demographic and workforce characteristics, work contexts, training needs and interests, training access and logistics, and knowledge of R6SCPHTC online resources. EVALUATION: Key findings included that two-thirds of the pre-pandemic Oklahoma public health workforce consisted of employees age 40 or older with few holding public health or medical degrees. The majority of respondents worked for health departments and Tribes, and almost half were frontline workers. Although at least half of the participants interested in training on public health activities and topics were familiar with them, confidence in their abilities related to these activities and topics was expressed by less than half. Qualitative data provided details on training needs addressed quantitatively and described new training areas. Survey participants expressed interest in diverse training delivery methods and technological devices. Most respondents were not familiar with the free trainings available through the R6SCPHTC. DISCUSSION: Similar to the regional and national public health workforce, Oklahoma's workforce needed training and support already before COVID-19. Time and resources need to be invested into the current and future workforce. While addressing priority public health skills and topics remains important, training on current and emerging topics is needed. Providing accessible trainings with expanded content will prepare Oklahoma's public health workforce for the future.

Trends in nuclear medicine and the radiopharmaceutical sciences in oncology: workforce challenges and training in the age of theranostics.

Although the promise of radionuclides for the diagnosis and treatment of disease was recognised soon after the discovery of radioactivity in the late 19th century, the systematic use of radionuclides in medicine only gradually increased over the subsequent hundred years. The past two decades, however, has seen a remarkable surge in the clinical application of diagnostic and therapeutic radiopharmaceuticals, particularly in oncology. This development is an exciting time for the use of theranostics in oncology, but the rapid growth of this area of nuclear medicine has created challenges as well. In particular, the infrastructure for the manufacturing and distribution of radiopharmaceuticals remains in development, and regulatory bodies are still optimising guidelines for this new class of drug. One issue of paramount importance for achieving equitable access to theranostics is building a sufficiently trained workforce in high-income, middle-income, and low-income countries. Here, we discuss the key challenges and opportunities that face the field as it seeks to build its workforce for the 21st century.

A Geospatial Analysis of the Availability, Distribution, and Accessibility of Neurosurgical Facilities, Workforce, and Infrastructure in Nigeria; and Projection Towards 2050.

OBJECTIVE: There has been a modest but progressive increase in the neurosurgical workforce, training, and service delivery in Nigeria in the last 2 decades. However, these resources are unevenly distributed. This study aimed to quantitatively assess the availability and distribution of neurosurgical resources in Nigeria while projecting the needed workforce capacity up to 2050. METHODS: An online survey of Nigerian neurosurgeons and residents assessed the country's neurosurgical infrastructure, workforce, and resources. The results were analyzed descriptively, and geospatial analysis was used to map their distribution. A projection model was fitted to predict workforce targets for 2022-2050. RESULTS: Out of 86 neurosurgery-capable health facilities, 65.1% were public hospitals, with only 17.4% accredited for residency training. Dedicated hospital beds and operating rooms for neurosurgery make up only 4.0% and 15.4% of the total, respectively. The population disease burden is estimated at 50.2 per 100,000, while the operative coverage was 153.2 cases per neurosurgeon. There are currently 132 neurosurgeons and 114 neurosurgery residents for a population of 218 million (ratio 1:1.65 million). There is an annual growth rate of 8.3%, resulting in a projected deficit of 1113 neurosurgeons by 2030 and 1104 by 2050. Timely access to neurosurgical care ranges from 21.6% to 86.7% of the population within different timeframes. CONCLUSIONS: Collaborative interventions are needed to address gaps in Nigeria's neurosurgical capacity. Investments in training, infrastructure, and funding are necessary for sustainable development and optimized outcomes.

Trends in the mobility of primary healthcare human resources in underdeveloped regions of western China from 2000 to 2021: Evidence from Nanning.

OBJECTIVE: This research aimed to identify the fundamental and geographic characteristics of the primary healthcare personnel mobility in Nanning from 2000 to 2021 and clarify the determinants that affect their transition to non-primary healthcare institutions. METHODS: Through utilizing the Primary Healthcare Personnel Database (PHPD) for 2000-2021, the study conducts descriptive statistical analysis on demographic, economic, and professional aspects of healthcare personnel mobility across healthcare reform phases. Geographic Information Systems (QGIS) were used to map mobility patterns, and R software was employed to calculate spatial autocorrelation (Moran's I). Logistic regression identified factors that influenced the transition to non-primary institutions. RESULTS: Primary healthcare personnel mobility is divided into four phases: initial (2000-2008), turning point (2009-2011), rapid development (2012-2020), and decline (2021). The rapid development stage saw increased mobility with no spatial clustering in inflow and outflow. From 2016 to 2020, primary healthcare worker mobility reached its peak, in which the most significant movement occurred between township health centers and other institutions. Aside from their transition to primary medical institutions, the primary movement of grassroots health personnel predominantly directs towards secondary general hospitals, tertiary general hospitals, and secondary specialized hospitals. Since 2012, the number and mobility distance of primary healthcare workers have become noticeably larger and remained at a higher level from 2016 to 2020. The main migration of primary healthcare personnel occurred in their districts (counties). Key transition factors include gender, education, ethnicity, professional category, general practice registration, and administrative division. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides evidence of the features of primary healthcare personnel mobility in the less developed western regions of China, in which Nanning was taken as a case study. It uncovers the factors that impact the flow of primary healthcare personnel to non-primary healthcare institutions. These findings are helpful to policy refinement and support the retention of primary healthcare workers.

Dermatology workforce projections in the United States, 2021 to 2036.

BACKGROUND: There has been a growing imbalance between supply of dermatologists and demand for dermatologic care. To best address physician shortages, it is important to delineate supply and demand patterns in the dermatologic workforce. The goal of this study was to explore dermatology supply and demand over time. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of workforce supply and demand projections for dermatologists from 2021 to 2036 using data from the Health Workforce Simulation Model from the National Center for Health Workforce Analysis. Estimates for total workforce supply and demand were summarized in aggregate and stratified by rurality. Scenarios with status quo demand and improved access were considered. RESULTS: Projected total supply showed a 12.45% increase by 2036. Total demand increased 12.70% by 2036 in the status quo scenario. In the improved access scenario, total supply was inadequate for total demand in any year, lagging by 28% in 2036. Metropolitan areas demonstrated a relative supply surplus up to 2036; nonmetropolitan areas had at least a 157% excess in demand throughout the study period. In 2021 adequacy was 108% and 39% adequacy for metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas, respectively; these differences were projected to continue through 2036. CONCLUSIONS: The findings suggest that the dermatology physician workforce is inadequate to meet the demand for dermatologic services in nonmetropolitan areas. Furthermore, improved access to dermatologic care would bolster demand and especially exacerbate workforce inadequacy in nonmetropolitan areas. Continued efforts are needed to address health inequities and ensure access to quality dermatologic care for all.

Trends in Orthopaedic Surgery Workforce Diversity: Analyzing Changes Over Time.

INTRODUCTION: There are many reasons why orthopaedic surgeons move or change careers. We asked the questions: (1) What is the geographic distribution of orthopaedic surgeons with respect to age, sex, and race and ethnicity? (2) How has our workforce changed over time with regard to these factors? (3) Are there any patterns or trends detected regarding policy or regulatory events that coincide with these differences? METHODS: The American Academy of Orthopaedic Surgeons surveys over 30,000 members, collecting data on demographics, age, race sex, and practice statistics. We calculated geographic distributions and evaluated these differences over time-potential influences from malpractice suits or tort reform were investigated. RESULTS: Overall surgeon density increased over time. The largest negative changes were noted in District of Columbia, Wyoming, and North Dakota and positive changes in Colorado, South Dakota, and West Virginia. Age across all states increased (mean 1.7 years). Number of female surgeons increased in most states (4.6% to 5.7%). Number of African Americans increased from 1.6% to 1.8%, Hispanic/LatinX from 1.8% to 2.2%, Asian from 5.5% to 6.7%, and multiracial from 0.8% to 1.2%. No change was noted in the percentage of Native American surgeons. DISCUSSION: Surgeon density increased from 2012 to 2018; the cause for this change was not evident. Small increases in surgeon population, female surgeons, and in some underrepresented minorities were seen.

Forecasting the Early Impact of COVID-19 on Physician Supply in EU Countries.

BACKGROUND: Many countries faced health workforce challenges even before the pandemic, such as impending retirements, negative population growth, or sub-optimal allocation of resources across health sectors. Current quantitative models are often of limited use, either because they require extensive individual-level data to be properly calibrated, or (in the absence of such data) because they are too simplistic to capture important demographic changes or disruptive epidemiological shocks such as the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. METHODS: We propose a population-dynamic and stock-flow-consistent approach to physician supply forecasting that is complex enough to account for dynamically changing behaviour, while requiring only publicly available time-series data for full calibration. We demonstrate the utility of this model by applying it to 21 European countries to forecast the supply of generalist and specialist physicians to 2040, and the impact of increased healthcare utilisation due to COVID-19 on this supply. RESULTS: Compared with the workforce needed to maintain physician density at 2019 levels, we find that in many countries there is indeed a significant trend towards decreasing generalist density at the expense of increasing specialist density. The trends for specialists are exacerbated by expectations of negative population growth in many Southern and Eastern European countries. Compared to the expected demographic changes in the population and the health workforce, we expect a limited impact of COVID-19 on these trends, even under conservative modelling assumptions. Finally, we generalise the approach to a multi-professional, multi-regional and multi-sectoral model for Austria, where we find an additional suboptimal distribution in the supply of contracted versus non-contracted (private) physicians. CONCLUSION: It is therefore vital to develop tools for decision-makers to influence the allocation and supply of doctors across specialties and sectors to address these imbalances.

An Analysis of American Urological Association Census Trends: Earlier Planned Retirement and Practice Pattern Changes May Exacerbate the Urology Workforce Shortage.

OBJECTIVE: To explore how changes in planned retirement age, practice setting, and physician productivity may impact the workforce shortage in urology. METHODS: We compared data between the 2015 and 2022 American Urological Association census, a specialty-wide annual survey which collects data on demographics, practice patterns, and procedures from a representative sample of U.S. urologists. Workforce productivity was measured by the self-reported number of hours worked per week and patients seen per week. A novel formula was developed to demonstrate how planned retirement age and productivity impact the workforce's production capacity. RESULTS: The total number of practicing urologists increased during the period from 2015 to 2022 (11,990 to 13,976), while the mean age of practicing urologists decreased slightly (55.0 to 54.5years; P < .002). During this period, the mean planned age of retirement for all urologists decreased from 68.9years to 67.7 (P < .001). Urologists in solo practice had a significantly higher planned age of retirement at 71.9years (P < .001) as compared to all other practice models. The number of patients seen per week for all urologists decreased from 78.7 to 72.9 (P < .001). The amount of hours worked per week remained relatively constant between the study periods. The maximum possible number of patients seen by the workforce prior to retirement increased by only 2.4% during the study interval. CONCLUSION: Though the U.S. urology workforce is growing and the mean age is decreasing, decreases in planned retirement age and productivity may offset these gains and intensify the physician shortage for U.S. urologists.

The Global Anesthesia Workforce Survey: Updates and Trends in the Anesthesia Workforce.

BACKGROUND: There is a large global deficit of anesthesia providers. In 2016, the World Federation of Societies of Anaesthesiologists (WFSA) conducted a survey to count the number of anesthesia providers worldwide. Much work has taken place since then to strengthen the anesthesia health workforce. This study updates the global count of anesthesia providers. METHODS: Between 2021 and 2023, an electronic survey was sent to national professional societies of physician anesthesia providers (PAPs), nurse anesthetists, and other nonphysician anesthesia providers (NPAPs). Data included number of providers and trainees, proportion of females, and limited intensive care unit (ICU) capacity data. Descriptive statistics were calculated by country, World Bank income group, and World Health Organization (WHO) region. Provider density is reported as the number of providers per 100,000 population. RESULTS: Responses were obtained for 172 of 193 United Nations (UN) member countries. The global provider density was 8.8 (PAP 6.6 NPAP 2.3). Seventy-six countries had a PAP density <5, whereas 66 countries had a total provider density <5. PAP density increased everywhere except for high- and low-income countries and the African region. CONCLUSIONS: The overall size of the global anesthesia workforce has increased over time, although some countries have experienced a decrease. Population growth and differences in which provider types that are counted can have an important impact on provider density. More work is needed to define appropriate metrics for measuring changes in density, to describe anesthesia cadres, and to improve workforce data collection processes. Effort to scale up anesthesia provider training must urgently continue.

The changing psychiatry workforce in Australia: Still lacking in rural and remote regions.

INTRODUCTION: There is a long standing and worsening shortage of psychiatrists in Australia particularly in rural areas. The majority of psychiatrists work in major cities. OBJECTIVE: To identify recent trends in the Australian rural psychiatrist workforce compared with the metropolitan workforce. DESIGN: We descriptively analysed population-level data from the National Health Workforce Data Set (NHWDS), the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW) and the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). A descriptive analysis of the numbers (count) and gender of psychiatrists from 1995 to 2022 working in Australia was conducted. For the period 2013 to 2022, we analysed for rurality, gender, years' experience, hours worked, Medicare-subsidised services provided and proportions of Specialist International Medical Graduates (SIMG) by sex, with a focus on the rural workforce. For international comparison, psychiatrist numbers were obtained for other OECD countries. The number of psychiatrists working in Australia, as per NHWDS and AIHW, was quantified. We analysed trends in demographics, hours worked and rurality of psychiatrists working in Australia in a serial cross-sectional design. FINDINGS: Most psychiatrists are maldistributed to major cities, while outer regional and remote areas have few resident psychiatrists. Outer regional New South Wales (NSW) and South Australia (SA) have the lowest numbers of psychiatrists per capita. The full-time equivalent (FTE) of psychiatrists per 100 000 has increased from 12.6 in 2000 to 15.2 in 2022. However, the average hours worked by psychiatrists has declined. In total, available psychiatrist hours worked per 100 000 population has increased by 6.1% since the beginning of the millennium. DISCUSSION: Rural areas in NSW and SA have the greatest shortage of psychiatrists. Specialist International Medical Graduates and females (43% of the overall workforce) are the predominant workforce in rural areas. Although Medicare-subsidised services per 1000 people have increased in rural areas, they remain lower than for those living in major cities. CONCLUSION: There remains an acute shortage of psychiatrists in many regional and remote areas of Australia, with an increasing proportion of SIMGs and females working in these areas, in the context of future increased demand.