Critical appraisal and assessment of bias among studies evaluating risk prediction models for in-hospital and 30-day mortality after percutaneous coronary intervention: a systematic review.

OBJECTIVE: We systematically assessed prediction models for the risk of in-hospital and 30-day mortality in post-percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) patients. DESIGN: Systematic review and narrative synthesis. DATA SOURCES: Searched PubMed, Web of Science, Embase, Cochrane Library, CINAHL, CNKI, Wanfang Database, VIP Database and SinoMed for literature up to 31 August 2023. ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA: The included literature consists of studies in Chinese or English involving PCI patients aged ≥18 years. These studies aim to develop risk prediction models and include designs such as cohort studies, case-control studies, cross-sectional studies or randomised controlled trials. Each prediction model must contain at least two predictors. Exclusion criteria encompass models that include outcomes other than death post-PCI, literature lacking essential details on study design, model construction and statistical analysis, models based on virtual datasets, and publications such as conference abstracts, grey literature, informal publications, duplicate publications, dissertations, reviews or case reports. We also exclude studies focusing on the localisation applicability of the model or comparative effectiveness. DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS: Two independent teams of researchers developed standardised data extraction forms based on CHecklist for critical Appraisal and data extraction for systematic Reviews of prediction Modelling Studies to extract and cross-verify data. They used Prediction model Risk Of Bias Assessment Tool (PROBAST) to assess the risk of bias and applicability of the model development or validation studies included in this review. RESULTS: This review included 28 studies with 38 prediction models, showing area under the curve values ranging from 0.81 to 0.987. One study had an unclear risk of bias, while 27 studies had a high risk of bias, primarily in the area of statistical analysis. The models constructed in 25 studies lacked clinical applicability, with 21 of these studies including intraoperative or postoperative predictors. CONCLUSION: The development of in-hospital and 30-day mortality prediction models for post-PCI patients is in its early stages. Emphasising clinical applicability and predictive stability is vital. Future research should follow PROBAST's low risk-of-bias guidelines, prioritising external validation for existing models to ensure reliable and widely applicable clinical predictions. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42023477272.

Hospital accreditation in Mexico fails to improve the quality of healthcare: lessons from an impact evaluation.

Healthcare quality in low- and middle-income countries poses a significant challenge, contributing to heightened mortality rates from treatable conditions. The accreditation of health facilities was part of the former health reform in Mexico, proposed as a mechanism to enhance healthcare quality. This study assesses the performance of hospital accreditation in Mexico, utilizing indicators of effectiveness, efficiency, and safety. Employing a longitudinal approach with controlled interrupted time series analysis (C-ITSA) and fixed effects panel analysis, administrative data from general hospitals in Mexico is scrutinized. Results reveal that hospital accreditation in Mexico fails to enhance healthcare quality and, disconcertingly, indicates deteriorating performance associated with increased hospital mortality. Amidst underfunded health services, the implemented accreditation model proves inadequately designed to uplift care quality. A fundamental redesign of the public hospital accreditation model is imperative, emphasizing incentives for structural enhancement and standardized processes. Addressing the critical challenge of improving care quality is urgent for Mexico's healthcare system, necessitating swift action to achieve effective access as a benchmark for universal healthcare coverage.

The six scoring systems' prognostic value in predicting 24-hour mortality in septic patients.

OBJECTIVE: The use of scoring systems contributes to the faster identification of septic patients, especially those at a high risk of a fatal outcome. The best scoring system does not exist, so the search for the optimal one is always current. The aim of this study is to estimate the prognostic value of the six scoring systems in predicting 24-hour mortality among septic patients presented at the emergency department. PATIENTS AND METHODS: An observational retrospective study was conducted in the Emergency Triage Room (ETR) of the Emergency Center (EC) at the University Clinical Center of Serbia (UCCS) in Belgrade. Consecutive septic patients, according to the Sepsis-3 definition, with or without shock, presented to the ETR and then hospitalized in Intensive Care Units were included in the study. Mortality data within 24 h and on the 28th day were extracted from the Hospital information system or the National mortality database. Scoring systems including sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA), quick sequential organ failure assessment (qSOFA), systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS), National early warning score (NEWS), sepsis patient evaluation in the emergency department (SPEED), and mortality in emergency department sepsis (MEDS) were analyzed for all patients utilizing the available data. The primary outcome of this study was death within 24 hours of triage. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was used to determine the most effective scoring system. Lactate was then added to this system to enhance its predictive accuracy. RESULTS: Nineteen out of 120 patients included in the study (15.8%) experienced death within 24 hours of triage. The twenty-eight-day mortality rate was 55%. SOFA score demonstrated the highest predictive value for 24-hour mortality but was only moderately predictive overall, with an area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) of 0.755 (95% CI 0.625-0.885). SPEED, MEDS, and NEVS exhibited modest discriminatory power [0.673 (95% CI 0.543-0.803), 0.665 (95% CI 0.536-0.794), 0.630 (95% CI 0.528-0.724)], while SIRS and qSOFA remained insignificant in predicting 24-hour mortality. The predictive value of the SOFA score was increased by the addition of lactate (AUC 0.865, 95% CI 0.736-0.995; p=0.0081). All scores demonstrated better and satisfactory predictive power for 28-day mortality. CONCLUSIONS: SOFA, with the addition of lactate, is a complex but reliable tool for the early stratification of septic patients who are presenting at an emergency department.

Comparison of NEWS2 and PSI as mortality predictors in patients with community acquired pneumonia.

In the West, National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) is commonly applied to predict the severity of illness using only bedside variables unlike the extensive Pneumonia Severity Index (PSI). The objective of this study was to compare these scores as mortality predictors in patients admitted with community acquired pneumonia (CAP). This cross-sectional study was conducted in Jinnah Postgraduate Medical Centre, Karachi, Pakistan, for six months in 2020 on 116 patients presenting with CAP. Cases of aspiration pneumonia, hospital acquired pneumonia, pulmonary tuberculosis, pulmonary embolism, and pulmonary oedema were excluded. In-hospital mortality was taken as the outcome of this study. The mean age of the participants was 46.9±20.5 years. The in-hospital mortalities were 45(38.8%). NEWS2 was 97.8% sensitive but only 15.5% specific in predicting the outcome, whereas PSI was less sensitive (68.9%) but more specific (50.7%), which showed that in comparison with PSI, NEWS2 is a more sensitive mortality predicting score among hospitalised CAP patients.

The prognostic value of the combined neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and neutrophil-to-platelet ratio (NPR) in sepsis.

Sepsis is a severe disease characterized by high mortality rates. Our aim was to develop an early prognostic indicator of adverse outcomes in sepsis, utilizing easily accessible routine blood tests. A retrospective analysis of sepsis patients from the MIMIC-IV database was conducted. We performed univariate and multivariate regression analyses to identify independent risk factors associated with in-hospital mortality within 28 days. Logistic regression was utilized to combine the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and the neutrophil-to-platelet ratio (NPR) into a composite score, denoted as NLR_NPR. We used ROC curves to compare the prognostic performance of the models and Kaplan-Meier survival curves to assess the 28 day survival rate. Subgroup analysis was performed to evaluate the applicability of NLR_NPR in different subpopulations based on specific characteristics. This study included a total of 1263 sepsis patients, of whom 179 died within 28 days of hospitalization, while 1084 survived beyond 28 days. Multivariate regression analysis identified age, respiratory rate, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), neutrophil-to-platelet ratio (NPR), hypertension, and sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score as independent risk factors for 28 day mortality in septic patients (P < 0.05). Additionally, in the prediction model based on blood cell-related parameters, the combined NLR_NPR score exhibited the highest predictive value for 28 day mortality (AUC = 0.6666), followed by NLR (AUC = 0.6456) and NPR (AUC = 0.6284). Importantly, the performance of the NLR_NPR score was superior to that of the commonly used SOFA score (AUC = 0.5613). Subgroup analysis showed that NLR_NPR remained an independent risk factor for 28 day in-hospital mortality in the subgroups of age, respiratory rate, and SOFA, although not in the hypertension subgroup. The combined use of NLR and NPR from routine blood tests represents a readily available and reliable predictive marker for 28 day mortality in sepsis patients. These results imply that clinicians should prioritize patients with higher NLR_NPR scores for closer monitoring to reduce mortality rates.

MORTALITY RISK ASSESSMENT AMONG PATIENTS, HOSPITALIZED FOR COVID-19.

In Georgia, the number of confirmed cases of Coronavirus were 1,85,5289. Among them, 17 132 patients died. Information on risk factors for mortality is insufficient. The purpose of our research is to evaluate clinical features of heavy patients with severe COVID and determine prognostic factors of outcome. Factors associated with critical COVID-19 included older age and certain chronic medical conditions. The clinical material of 250 chronically ill COVID-19 patients admitted to the intensive care unit was retrospectively studied. We divided the patients into two groups. The dead and the survivors. Demographic data, comorbidities, chronic diseases, results of ultrasound, cardiography, computed tomography and laboratory characteristics were studied. In patients with chronic diseases, in the intensive care unit during COVID-19, the relative chance of survival decreases: CRP3 - OR=0.98(95% CI:0.97-0.99Hydrothorax- OR=0.24(95% CI:0.06-0.95); Sepsis/Septic shock - OR=0.07(95% CI:0.01-0.39); WBC - OR=0.86(95% CI:0.74-0.99); Mechanical lung ventilation - OR=0.01(95% CI:0.00-0.05)); increase survival relative chance- pO2 - OR=1.03(95% CI:1.0-1.06). Predictors of mortality in patients with chronic diseases: coagulation characteristics, inflammatory markers, sepsis, and artificial lung ventilation. Risk factors for covid-19 mortality need to be studied to increase pandemic preparedness.

The value of right ventricular pulmonary artery coupling in determining the prognosis of patients with sepsis.

The outcomes of patients with sepsis are influenced by the contractile function of the right ventricle (RV), but the impact of cardiopulmonary interaction in ICU-mortality of sepsis patients remains unclear. This study aims to investigate the ICU-mortality impact of right ventricular-pulmonary artery (RV-PA) coupling in patients with sepsis. We employed echocardiography to assess patients with sepsis within the initial 24 h of their admission to the ICU. RV-PA coupling was evaluated using the tricuspid annular plane systolic excursion (TAPSE) to pulmonary artery systolic pressure (PASP) ratio. A total of 92 subjects were enrolled, with 55 survivors and 37 non-survivors. TAPSE/PASP ratio assessed mortality with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.766 (95% CI 0.670-0.862) and the optimal cutoff value was 0.495 mm/mmHg. We constructed a nomogram depicting the TAPSE/PASP in conjunction with IL-6 and Lac for the joint prediction of sepsis prognosis, and demonstrated the highest predictive capability (AUC = 0.878, 95% CI 0.809-0.948). In conclusion, the TAPSE/PASP ratio demonstrated prognostic value for ICU mortality in sepsis patients. The nomogram, which combines the TAPSE/PASP, IL-6, and LAC, demonstrated enhanced predictive efficacy for the prognosis of sepsis patients.

Long-term outcomes following mitral valve replacement in children at heart center Leipzig: a 20-year analysis.

BACKGROUND: Although mitral valve repair is the preferred surgical strategy in children with mitral valve disease, there are cases of irreparable severe dysplastic valves that require mitral valve replacement. The aim of this study is to analyze long-term outcomes following mitral valve replacement in children in a tertiary referral center. METHODS: A total of 41 consecutive patients underwent mitral valve replacement between February 2001 and February 2021. The study data was prospectively collected and retrospectively analyzed. Primary outcomes were in-hospital mortality, long-term survival, and long-term freedom from reoperation. RESULTS: Median age at operation was 23 months (IQR 5-93), median weight was 11.3 kg (IQR 4.8-19.4 kg). One (2.4%) patient died within the first 30 postoperative days. In-hospital mortality was 4.9%. Four (9.8%) patients required re-exploration for bleeding, and 2 (4.9%) patients needed extracorporeal life support. Median follow-up was 11 years (IQR 11 months - 16 years). Long-term freedom from re-operation after 1, 5, 10 and 15 years was 97.1%, 93.7%, 61.8% and 42.5%, respectively. Long-term survival after 1, 5, 10 and 15 years was 89.9%, 87%, 87% and 80.8%, respectively. CONCLUSION: If MV repair is not feasible, MV replacement offers a good surgical alternative for pediatric patients with MV disease. It provides good early- and long-term outcomes.

Predictive value of the dynamics of absolute lymphocyte counts for 90-day mortality in ICU sepsis patients: a retrospective big data study.

OBJECTIVES: The objective of the study was to assess the clinical predictive value of the dynamics of absolute lymphocyte count (ALC) for 90-day all-cause mortality in sepsis patients in intensive care unit (ICU). DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study using big data. SETTING: This study was conducted using the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV database V.2.0 database. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome was 90-day all-cause mortality. PARTICIPANTS: Patients were included if they were diagnosed with sepsis on the first day of ICU admission. Exclusion criteria were ICU stay under 24 hours; the absence of lymphocyte count on the first day; extremely high lymphocyte count (>10×109/L); history of haematolymphatic tumours, bone marrow or solid organ transplants; survival time under 72 hours and previous ICU admissions. The analysis ultimately included 17 329 sepsis patients. RESULTS: The ALC in the non-survivors group was lower on days 1, 3, 5 and 7 after admission (p<0.001). The ALC on day 7 had the highest area under the curve (AUC) value for predicting 90-day mortality. The cut-off value of ALC on day 7 was 1.0×109/L. In the restricted cubic spline plot, after multivariate adjustments, patients with higher lymphocyte counts had a better prognosis. After correction, in the subgroups with Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score ≥6 or age ≥60 years, ALC on day 7 had the lowest HR value (0.79 and 0.81, respectively). On the training and testing set, adding the ALC on day 7 improved all prediction models' AUC and average precision values. CONCLUSIONS: Dynamic changes of ALC are closely associated with 90-day all-cause mortality in sepsis patients. Furthermore, the ALC on day 7 after admission is a better independent predictor of 90-day mortality in sepsis patients, especially in severely ill or young sepsis patients.

Sarcopenia, sarcopenic obesity and the clinical outcome of the older inpatients with COVID-19 infection: a prospective observational study.

OBJECTIVE: We aimed to investigate the impact of sarcopenia and sarcopenic obesity (SO) on the clinical outcome in older patients with COVID-19 infection and chronic disease. METHODS: We prospectively collected data from patients admitted to Huadong Hospital for COVID-19 infection between November 1, 2022, and January 31, 2023. These patients were included from a previously established comprehensive geriatric assessment (CGA) cohort. We collected information on their pre-admission condition regarding sarcopenia, SO, and malnutrition, as well as their medical treatment. The primary endpoint was the incidence of intubation, while secondary endpoints included in-hospital mortality rates. We then utilized Kaplan-Meier (K-M) survival curves and the log-rank tests to compare the clinical outcomes related to intubation or death, assessing the impact of sarcopenia and SO on patient clinical outcomes. RESULTS: A total of 113 patients (age 89.6 ± 7.0 years) were included in the study. Among them, 51 patients had sarcopenia and 39 had SO prior to hospitalization. Intubation was required for 6 patients without sarcopenia (9.7%) and for 18 sarcopenia patients (35.3%), with 16 of these being SO patients (41%). Mortality occurred in 2 patients without sarcopenia (3.3%) and in 13 sarcopenia patients (25.5%), of which 11 were SO patients (28%). Upon further analysis, patients with SO exhibited significantly elevated risks for both intubation (Hazard Ratio [HR] 7.43, 95% Confidence Interval [CI] 1.26-43.90, P < 0.001) and mortality (HR 6.54, 95% CI 1.09-39.38, P < 0.001) after adjusting for confounding factors. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of sarcopenia or SO was high among senior inpatients, and both conditions were found to have a significant negative impact on the clinical outcomes of COVID-19 infection. Therefore, it is essential to regularly assess and intervene in these conditions at the earliest stage possible.

The impact of hospital presentation time on stroke outcomes: A nationally representative Irish cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: There is conflicting evidence regarding the outcomes of acute stroke patients who present to hospital within normal working hours ('in-hours') compared with the 'out-of-hours' period. This study aimed to assess the effect of time of stroke presentation on outcomes within the Irish context, to inform national stroke service delivery. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A secondary analysis of data from the Irish National Audit of Stroke (INAS) from Jan 2016 to Dec 2019 was carried out. Patient and process outcomes were assessed for patients presenting 'in-hours' (8:00-17:00 Monday-Friday) compared with 'out-of-hours' (all other times). RESULTS: Data on arrival time were available for 13,996 patients (male 56.2%; mean age 72.5 years), of which 55.7% presented 'out-of-hours'. In hospital mortality was significantly lower among those admitted 'in-hours' (11.3%, n = 534) compared with 'out-of-hours' (12.8%, n = 749); (adjusted Odds Ratio (OR) 0.82; 95% Confidence Interval CI [95% CI] 0.72-0.89). Poor functional outcome at discharge (Modified Rankin Scale ≥ 3) was also significantly lower in those presenting 'in-hours' (adjusted OR 0.79; 95% CI 0.68-0.91). In patients receiving thrombolysis, mean door to needle time was shorter for 'in-hours' presentation at 55.8 mins (n = 562; SD 35.43 mins), compared with 'out-of-hours' presentation at 80.5 mins (n = 736; SD 38.55 mins, p < .001). CONCLUSION: More than half of stroke patients in Ireland present 'out-of-hours' and these presentations are associated with a higher mortality and a lower odds of functional independence at discharge. It is imperative that stroke pathways consider the 24 hour period to ensure the delivery of effective stroke care, and modification of 'out-of-hours' stroke care is required to improve overall outcomes.

Long-term mortality after isolated coronary artery bypass grafting and risk factors for mortality.

BACKGROUND: Patients requiring coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) have multiple co-morbidities which need to be considered in totality when determining surgical risks. The objective of this study is to evaluate short-term and long-term mortality rates of CABG surgery, as well as to identify the most significant risk factors for mortality after isolated CABG. METHODS: All patients with complete dataset who underwent isolated CABG between January 2008 and December 2017 were included. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression was performed to determine the risk factors for all-cause mortality. Classification and regression tree analysis was performed to identify the relative importance of these risk factors. RESULTS: 3,573 patients were included in the study. Overall mortality rate was 25.7%. In-hospital mortality rate was 1.62% overall. 30-day, 1-year, 5-year, 10-year and 14.5-year mortality rates were 1.46%, 2.94%, 9.89%, 22.79% and 36.30% respectively. Factors associated with death after adjustment for other risk factors were older age, lower body mass index (BMI), hypertension, diabetes mellitus, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, pre-operative renal failure on dialysis, higher last pre-operative creatinine level, lower estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), heart failure, lower left ventricular ejection fraction and New York Heart Association class II, III and IV. Additionally, female gender and logistic EuroSCORE were associated with death on univariate Cox analysis, but not associated with death after adjustment with multivariate Cox analysis. Using CART analysis, the strongest predictor of mortality was pre-operative eGFR < 46.9, followed by logistic EuroSCORE ≥ 2.4. CONCLUSION: Poorer renal function, quantified by a lower eGFR, is the best predictor of post-CABG mortality. Amongst other risk factors, logistic EuroSCORE, age, diabetes and BMI had a relatively greater impact on mortality. Patients with chronic kidney disease stage 3B and above are at highest risk for mortality. We hope these findings heighten awareness to optimise current medical therapy in preserving renal function upon diagnosis of any atherosclerotic disease and risk factors contributing to coronary artery disease.

Linguistic isolation correlates with length of stay and mortality for pediatric oncology patients in California.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate social drivers of health and how they impact pediatric oncology patients' clinical outcomes during pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) admission via correlation with patient ZIP codes. METHODS: Demographic, clinical, and outcome variables from Virtual Pediatric Systems®, LLC for oncology patients (2009-2021) in California PICUs (excluding postoperative) using 3-digit ZIP Codes with social drivers of health variables linguistic isolation, poverty, race/ethnicity, and education abstracted from American Community Survey data for 3-digit ZIP Codes using the Environmental Protection Agency's EJScreen tool. Outcomes of length of stay (LOS), mortality, acuity scores, were compared with social variables. RESULTS: Positive correlation between mortality and minority racial groups (Hispanic/Latino) across ZIP Codes (correlation coefficients of 0.45 (95% CI: 0.22-0.64, p < 0.001) in 2017, 0.50 (95% CI: 0.27-0.68, p < 0.001) in 2018, 0.33 (95% CI: 0.07-0.54, p = 0.013) in 2020, and 0.32 (95% CI: 0.06-0.53, p = 0.018) in 2021). Median PICU length of stay significantly correlated with linguistic isolation (coefficient of 0.42 (95% CI: 0.18-0.61, p = 0.001) in 2021 versus -0.41 (95% CI: -0.61 to -0.16, p = 0.002) in 2019), which included PRISMIII (n = 7417). Mixed effects logistic regression model for other constant variables (PRISMIII, cancer type, race/ethnicity, year), random effect of patient, linguistic isolation (percentage as a continuous value) was significantly associated (95% CI: 1.01-1.06; p = 0.02) with mortality; (OR = 1.03). CONCLUSIONS: Linguistic isolation was correlated with LOS and mortality, however variable year to year.

A multivariable analysis to predict variations in hospital mortality using systems-based factors of healthcare delivery to inform improvements to healthcare design within the English NHS.

Over the last decade, the strain on the English National Health Service (NHS) has increased. This has been especially felt by acute hospital trusts where the volume of admissions has steadily increased. Patient outcomes, including inpatient mortality, vary between trusts. The extent to which these differences are explained by systems-based factors, and whether they are avoidable, is unclear. Few studies have investigated these relationships. A systems-based methodology recognises the complexity of influences on healthcare outcomes. Rather than clinical interventions alone, the resources supporting a patient's treatment journey have near-equal importance. This paper first identifies suitable metrics of resource and demand within healthcare delivery from routinely collected, publicly available, hospital-level data. Then it proceeds to use univariate and multivariable linear regression to associate such systems-based factors with standardised mortality. Three sequential cross-sectional analyses were performed, spanning the last decade. The results of the univariate regression analyses show clear relationships between five out of the six selected predictor variables and standardised mortality. When these five predicators are included within a multivariable regression analysis, they reliably explain approximately 36% of the variation in standardised mortality between hospital trusts. Three factors are consistently statistically significant: the number of doctors per hospital bed, bed occupancy, and the percentage of patients who are placed in a bed within four hours after a decision to admit them. Of these, the number of doctors per bed had the strongest effect. Linear regression assumption testing and a robustness analysis indicate the observations have internal validity. However, our empirical strategy cannot determine causality and our findings should not be interpreted as established causal relationships. This study provides hypothesis-generating evidence of significant relationships between systems-based factors of healthcare delivery and standardised mortality. These have relevance to clinicians and policymakers alike. While identifying causal relationships between the predictors is left to the future, it establishes an important paradigm for further research.

Clinical value identification of RDW on in-hospital death in unruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm.

This study aimed to identify highly valuable blood indicators for predicting the clinical outcomes of patients with aortic aneurysms (AA). Baseline data of 1180 patients and 16 blood indicators were obtained from the public Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care-IV (MIMIC-IV) database. The association of blood indicators with 4 types of clinical outcomes was analyzed, and the prediction performance of core indicators on different outcomes was next evaluated. Then, we explored the detailed association between core indicators and key outcomes among subgroups. Finally, a machine learning model was established to improve the prediction performance. Generalized linear regression analysis indicated that only red cell volume distribution width (RDW) was commonly associated with 4 end-points including surgery requirement, ICU stay requirement, length of hospital stay, and in-hospital death (all P < .05). Further, RDW showed the best performance for predicting in-hospital death by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. The significant association between RDW and in-hospital death was then determined by 3 logistic regression models adjusting for different variables (all P < .05). Stratification analysis showed that their association was mainly observed in unruptured AA and abdominal AA (AAA, all P < .05). We subsequently established an RDW-based model for predicting the in-hospital death only in patients with unruptured AAA. The favorable prediction performance of the RDW-based model was verified in training, validation, and test sets. RDW was found to make the greatest contribution to in-hospital death within the model. RDW had favorable clinical value for predicting the in-hospital death of patients, especially in unruptured AAA.

A retrospective analysis of the clinical profile and factors associated with mortality and poor hospital outcomes in adult Guillain-Barre syndrome patients.

Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) is an acute autoimmune polyneuropathy with substantial geographic variations in demography, antecedent events, clinical manifestations, electrophysiological sub-types, diagnostic findings, treatment modalities, and prognostic indicators. However, there is limited contemporary data on GBS patient profiles and prognostic factors from low-resource settings like Ethiopia. The objective of this study is to investigate the clinical profile, factors associated with mortality, and hospital outcomes among GBS patients admitted to Tikur Anbessa Specialized Hospital (TASH) in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. A retrospective cross-sectional study was conducted among 60 GBS patients admitted to TASH from January 2018 to December 2022. Data on demographics, clinical features, treatments, complications, and outcomes were extracted from medical records. Bivariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses identified factors associated with mortality and poor hospital outcomes. The cohort had a mean age of 28.5 years, with 76.7% aged 14-34 years. Males comprised 61.7% of cases. Ascending paralysis (76.7%) was the predominant presentation. Absent or reduced reflexes were seen in 91.7% of patients. The most common antecedent event was gastroenteritis (26.7%), followed by upper respiratory tract infection (URTI) (15%) and vaccination (11.7%). The mean interval from symptom onset to hospital presentation was 8.77 days, and the peak symptom severity was 4.47 days. The axonal variant (75.5%) was the most common subtype, followed by the demyelinating variant (24.5%). Intravenous immunoglobulin was administered to 41.7% of patients. Respiratory failure requiring invasive mechanical ventilator (MV) support occurred in 26.7% of cases. The mortality rate was 10%, with mechanical ventilation being the only factor significantly associated with mortality (95% CI 2.067-184.858; P < 0.010). At discharge, 55% had a good outcome, and 45% had a poor outcome, according to the Hughes Functional Disability Scale (HFDS). Mechanical ventilation (AOR 0.024, 95% CI 0.001-0.607) and a GBS disability score > 3 (AOR 0.106, 95% CI 0.024-0.467) were factors significantly associated with poor hospital outcomes. GBS in this cohort primarily affected individuals of young age, commonly preceded by gastroenteritis and characterized by a high frequency of the axonal variant. Mechanical ventilation was found to be significantly linked to mortality. Alongside mechanical ventilation requirements, severe disability upon presentation emerged as a crucial determinant of poor outcomes upon discharge, underscoring the importance of early identification of high-risk patients and prompt interventions.

The impact of intraoperative hypotension on postoperative acute kidney injury, mortality and length of stay following off-pump coronary artery bypass grafting surgery: a single-center retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Off-pump coronary artery bypass grafting (OPCABG) presents distinct hemodynamic characteristics, yet the relationship between intraoperative hypotension and short-term adverse outcomes remains clear. Our study aims to investigate association between intraoperative hypotension and postoperative acute kidney injury (AKI), mortality and length of stay in OPCABG patients. METHODS: Retrospective data of 494 patients underwent OPCABG from January 2016 to July 2023 were collected. We analyzed the relationship between intraoperative various hypotension absolute values (MAP > 75, 65 < MAP ≤ 75, 55 < MAP ≤ 65, MAP ≤ 55 mmHg) and postoperative AKI, mortality and length of stay. Logistic regression assessed the impacts of exposure variable on AKI and postoperative mortality. Linear regression was used to analyze risk factors on the length of intensive care unit stay (ICU) and hospital stay. RESULTS: The incidence of AKI was 31.8%, with in-hospital and 30-day mortality at 2.8% and 3.5%, respectively. Maintaining a MAP greater than or equal 65 mmHg [odds ratio (OR) 0.408; p = 0.008] and 75 mmHg (OR 0.479; p = 0.024) was significantly associated with a decrease risk of AKI compared to MAP less than 55 mmHg for at least 10 min. Prolonged hospital stays were linked to low MAP, while in-hospital mortality and 30-day mortality were not linked to IOH but exhibited correlation with a history of myocardial infarction. AKI showed correlation with length of ICU stay. CONCLUSIONS: MAP > 65 mmHg emerges as a significant independent protective factor for AKI in OPCABG and IOH is related to length of hospital stay. Proactive intervention targeting intraoperative hypotension may provide a potential opportunity to reduce postoperative renal injury and hospital stay. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ChiCTR2400082518. Registered 31 March 2024. https://www.chictr.org.cn/bin/project/edit?pid=225349 .

The impact of hospital saturation on non-COVID-19 hospital mortality during the pandemic in France: a national population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: A previous study reported significant excess mortality among non-COVID-19 patients due to disrupted surgical care caused by resource prioritization for COVID-19 cases in France. The primary objective was to investigate if a similar impact occurred for medical conditions and determine the effect of hospital saturation on non-COVID-19 hospital mortality during the first year of the pandemic in France. METHODS: We conducted a nationwide population-based cohort study including all adult patients hospitalized for non-COVID-19 acute medical conditions in France between March 1, 2020 and 31 May, 2020 (1st wave) and September 1, 2020 and December 31, 2020 (2nd wave). Hospital saturation was categorized into four levels based on weekly bed occupancy for COVID-19: no saturation (< 5%), low saturation (> 5% and ≤ 15%), moderate saturation (> 15% and ≤ 30%), and high saturation (> 30%). Multivariate generalized linear model analyzed the association between hospital saturation and mortality with adjustment for age, sex, COVID-19 wave, Charlson Comorbidity Index, case-mix, source of hospital admission, ICU admission, category of hospital and region of residence. RESULTS: A total of 2,264,871 adult patients were hospitalized for acute medical conditions. In the multivariate analysis, the hospital mortality was significantly higher in low saturated hospitals (adjusted Odds Ratio/aOR = 1.05, 95% CI [1.34-1.07], P < .001), moderate saturated hospitals (aOR = 1.12, 95% CI [1.09-1.14], P < .001), and highly saturated hospitals (aOR = 1.25, 95% CI [1.21-1.30], P < .001) compared to non-saturated hospitals. The proportion of deaths outside ICU was higher in highly saturated hospitals (87%) compared to non-, low- or moderate saturated hospitals (81-84%). The negative impact of hospital saturation on mortality was more pronounced in patients older than 65 years, those with fewer comorbidities (Charlson 1-2 and 3 vs. 0), patients with cancer, nervous and mental diseases, those admitted from home or through the emergency room (compared to transfers from other hospital wards), and those not admitted to the intensive care unit. CONCLUSIONS: Our study reveals a noteworthy "dose-effect" relationship: as hospital saturation intensifies, the non-COVID-19 hospital mortality risk also increases. These results raise concerns regarding hospitals' resilience and patient safety, underscoring the importance of identifying targeted strategies to enhance resilience for the future, particularly for high-risk patients.

Calcium supplementation during trauma resuscitation: a propensity score-matched analysis from the TraumaRegister DGU®.

BACKGROUND: In major trauma patients, hypocalcemia is associated with increased mortality. Despite the absence of strong evidence on causality, early calcium supplementation has been recommended. This study investigates whether calcium supplementation during trauma resuscitation provides a survival benefit. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective analysis using data from the TraumaRegister DGU® (2015-2019), applying propensity score matching to balance demographics, injury severity, and management between major trauma patients with and without calcium supplementation. 6 h mortality, 24 h mortality, and in-hospital mortality were considered as primary outcome parameters. RESULTS: Within a cohort of 28,323 directly admitted adult major trauma patients at a European trauma center, 1593 (5.6%) received calcium supplementation. Using multivariable logistic regression to generate propensity scores, two comparable groups of 1447 patients could be matched. No significant difference in early mortality (6 h and 24 h) was observed, while in-hospital mortality appeared higher in those with calcium supplementation (28.3% vs. 24.5%, P = 0.020), although this was not significant when adjusted for predicted mortality (P = 0.244). CONCLUSION: In this matched cohort, no evidence was found for or against a survival benefit from calcium supplementation during trauma resuscitation. Further research should focus on understanding the dynamics and kinetics of ionized calcium levels in major trauma patients and identify if specific conditions or subgroups could benefit from calcium supplementation.

Association between Postoperative Adjuvant Vasodilator Therapy and In-Hospital Mortality for Non-Occlusive Mesenteric Ischemia: A Nationwide Observational Study.

BACKGROUND: Although several clinical guidelines recommend vasodilator therapy for non-occlusive mesenteric ischemia (NOMI) and immediate surgery when bowel necrosis is suspected, these recommendations are based on limited evidence. METHODS: In this retrospective nationwide observational study, we used information from the Japanese Diagnosis Procedure Combination inpatient database from July 2010 to March 2018 to identify patients with NOMI who underwent abdominal surgeries on the day of admission. We compared patients who received postoperative vasodilator therapy (vasodilator group) with those who did not (control group). Vasodilator therapy was defined as venous and/or arterial administration of papaverine and/or prostaglandin E1 within 2 days of admission. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. Secondary outcomes included the prevalence of additional abdominal surgery performed ≥3 days after admission and short bowel syndrome. RESULTS: We identified 928 eligible patients (149 in the vasodilator group and 779 in the control group). One-to-four propensity score matching yielded 149 and 596 patients for the vasodilator and control groups, respectively. There was no significant difference in in-hospital mortality between the groups (control vs. vasodilator, 27.5% vs. 30.9%; risk difference, 3.4%; 95% confidence interval, -4.9 to 11.6; p=0.42) and no significant difference in the prevalences of abdominal surgery, bowel resection ≥3 days after admission, and short bowel syndrome. CONCLUSIONS: Postoperative vasodilator use was not significantly associated with a reduction in in-hospital mortality or additional abdominal surgery performed ≥3 days after admission in surgically treated NOMI patients.