A pause in Southern Hemisphere circulation trends due to the Montreal Protocol.

Observations show robust near-surface trends in Southern Hemisphere tropospheric circulation towards the end of the twentieth century, including a poleward shift in the mid-latitude jet1,2, a positive trend in the Southern Annular Mode1,3-6 and an expansion of the Hadley cell7,8. It has been established that these trends were driven by ozone depletion in the Antarctic stratosphere due to emissions of ozone-depleting substances9-11. Here we show that these widely reported circulation trends paused, or slightly reversed, around the year 2000. Using a pattern-based detection and attribution analysis of atmospheric zonal wind, we show that the pause in circulation trends is forced by human activities, and has not occurred owing only to internal or natural variability of the climate system. Furthermore, we demonstrate that stratospheric ozone recovery, resulting from the Montreal Protocol, is the key driver of the pause. Because pre-2000 circulation trends have affected precipitation12-14, and potentially ocean circulation and salinity15-17, we anticipate that a pause in these trends will have wider impacts on the Earth system. Signatures of the effects of the Montreal Protocol and the associated stratospheric ozone recovery might therefore manifest, or have already manifested, in other aspects of the Earth system.

Estimating and tracking the remaining carbon budget for stringent climate targets.

Research reported during the past decade has shown that global warming is roughly proportional to the total amount of carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere. This makes it possible to estimate the remaining carbon budget: the total amount of anthropogenic carbon dioxide that can still be emitted into the atmosphere while holding the global average temperature increase to the limit set by the Paris Agreement. However, a wide range of estimates for the remaining carbon budget has been reported, reducing the effectiveness of the remaining carbon budget as a means of setting emission reduction targets that are consistent with the Paris Agreement. Here we present a framework that enables us to track estimates of the remaining carbon budget and to understand how these estimates can improve over time as scientific knowledge advances. We propose that application of this framework may help to reconcile differences between estimates of the remaining carbon budget and may provide a basis for reducing uncertainty in the range of future estimates.

Understanding the prevalence of bear part consumption in Cambodia: A comparison of specialised questioning techniques.

The trade in bear parts for medicine and for status is a conservation challenge throughout Asia. The Asiatic black bear (Ursus thibetanus) and the sun bear (Helarctos malayanus) are endemic to this region, and populations are estimated to have declined throughout their ranges due to widespread illegal killing of bears and trade in parts, combined with loss of habitat. Previous studies have indicated that legislation alone is insufficient to prevent illegal hunting and trade, indicating instead a need to address demand for bear parts and products. We conducted mixed-method surveys in Cambodia to understand the key motivators for individuals to consume bear parts, and to understand whether specialised questioning techniques are applicable in this context. Bear part use is illegal in Cambodia and may therefore be considered a sensitive behaviour, in that individuals may be reluctant to admit to it. To counteract possible biases, four specialised questioning techniques were used in this study: randomised response technique (RRT), unmatched count technique (UCT), nominative technique (NT), and false consensus bias (FCB). All four methods serve to shield a respondent's admittance of a sensitive behaviour from the interviewer. The results presented here show that great variability exists in anonymous methods' efficacy in certain contexts. However, the results overall indicate that individuals in Cambodia are under-reporting their consumption of bear parts when directly asked, and that the prevalence of bear part use in Cambodia may be as high as 15% of the population, representing a significant conservation challenge.

Analyzing data from a fuzzy rating scale-based questionnaire. A case study / Análisis de datos de un cuestionario basado en la escala de valoración fuzzy. Estudio de caso

BACKGROUND: The fuzzy rating scale was introduced to cope with the imprecision of human thought and experience in measuring attitudes in many fields of Psychology. The flexibility and expressiveness of this scale allow us to properly describe the answers to many questions involving psychological measurement. METHOD: Analyzing the responses to a fuzzy rating scale-based questionnaire is indeed a critical problem. Nevertheless, over the last years, a methodology is being developed to analyze statistically fuzzy data in such a way that the information they contain is fully exploited. In this paper, a summary review of the main procedures is given. RESULTS: The methods are illustrated by their application on the dataset obtained from a case study with nine-year-old children. In this study, children replied to some questions from the well-known TIMSS/PIRLS questionnaire by using a fuzzy rating scale. The form could be filled in either on the computer or by hand. CONCLUSIONS: The study indicates that the requirements of background and training underlying the fuzzy rating scale are not too demanding. Moreover, it is clearly shown that statistical conclusions substantially often differ depending on the responses being given in accordance with either a Likert scale or a fuzzy rating scale

ANTECEDENTES: la escala de valoración difusa se introdujo para abordar la imprecisión inherente al pensamiento humano y la experiencia al medir actitudes en muchos campos de la Psicología. La flexibilidad y expresividad de esta escala permiten describir apropiadamente las respuestas a la mayoría de las cuestiones que involucran mediciones psicológicas. MÉTODO: analizar las respuestas a cuestionarios basados en dicha escala supone un problema crítico. No obstante, en los últimos años se está desarrollando una metodología específica para el análisis estadístico de datos difusos que explota toda la información disponible. En este trabajo se recoge un resumen de los procedimientos más relevantes. RESULTADOS: los métodos se ilustrarán mediante su aplicación a los datos de un estudio realizado con niños de nueve años. En él, los niños han respondido a algunas cuestiones del conocido cuestionario TIMSS/PIRLS recurriendo a un formulario basado en la escala de valoración difusa y en formato impreso o digital. CONCLUSIONES: en primer lugar, el estudio muestra que los requisitos previos de formación y entrenamiento para cumplimentar tal formulario son poco exigentes. En segundo lugar, se verifica que a menudo las conclusiones estadísticas difieren sustancialmente dependiendo de que las respuestas se den según escala Likert o de valoración difusa

Tratamiento metodológico de la observación indirecta en la gestión de organizaciones deportivas / Indirect observational methodology in managing sports services

Contemplar al usuario/a como elemento clave de la gestión, es una de las tendencias que actualmente ha recibido mucha atención científica. Sin embargo, la evaluación de la calidad de los programas deportivos orientados a la población infantil, es escasa, queda evidenciado en los pocos estudios realizados. Por ello, consideramos necesario realizar un estudio dirigido a la población infantil, como usuarios directos, ya que se trata del grupo social más numeroso a la hora de realizar actividades físicas y, la necesidad de crear y consolidar hábitos deportivos que pueden repercutir en estilos de vida saludables. El objetivo de nuestro trabajo es plantear un desarrollo metodológico de observación indirecta con el fin de profundizar en la evaluación de la calidad en los servicios municipales deportivos orientados a la población infantil. En la actualidad, el desarrollo metodológico ha beneficiado de manera muy notoria a la observación indirecta. Se trata de documentos de los cuales hemos aprendido a extraer información válida y consistente; documentos que pueden tener un alto valor informativo, pero que formalmente requieren de una preparación que los adecúen para alcanzar la necesaria sistematización. Para ello contrastamos las percepciones de los usuarios/as más pequeños/as (de 8 a 12 años) con la de los/as padres/madres y el personal experto de las instalaciones municipales deportivas, para adecuar y mejorar los servicios deportivos orientados a la población infantil. Para la recogida de información se realizaron entrevistas en profundidad y para el tratamiento de los datos, se utilizó el programa Atlas Ti. Los datos aquí presentados forman parte de un trabajo de mayor envergadura

Researchers are paying increasing attention to users as a key component in service management. However, very few studies have sought to examine the quality of sports services for children. This is perhaps surprising when one considers that physical activity is engaged in more by children than by any other social group, not to mention the importance of developing and consolidating children’s interest in sport so as to help promote healthy lifestyles. With this in mind the present study uses indirect observation as a means of assessing the quality of municipal sports services for children. In recent years the indirect observational approach has made a notable contribution to the development of research methodologies. Indeed, it has been shown that valid, reliable information can be extracted from documents of various kinds. However, in order to ensure that such information is of high value, these documents need to be prepared in such a way that systematic analyses are possible. This study focuses on the quality of sports services for children and compares the views of children (8-12 years old) with those of parents and of the staff of municipal sports facilities. The aim was to gather information that could help improve such services and tailor them more to children’s needs. The information was gathered by means of in-depth interviews, the contents of which were then analysed using Atlas.ti software. The data presented here forms part of a broader research project

Global cooperation among diverse organizations to reduce illegal fishing in the Southern Ocean.

Illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing is prevalent globally and has detrimental effects on commercial fish stocks and nontarget species. Effective monitoring and enforcement aimed at reducing the level of IUU fishing in extensive, remote ocean fisheries requires international collaboration. Changes in trade and vessel activities further complicate enforcement. We used a web-based survey of governmental and nongovernmental organizations engaged in reducing IUU fishing in the Southern Ocean to collect information on interorganizational collaborations. We used social-network analyses to examine the nature of collaborations among the identified 117 organizations engaged in reducing IUU fishing. International collaboration improved the ability to control and manage harvest of commercially important toothfish (Dissostichus spp.) stocks and reduced bycatch of albatrosses (Diomedeidae) and petrels (Procellariidae) in longlines of IUU fishing vessels. The diverse group of surveyed organizations cooperated frequently, thereby making a wide range of resources available for improved detection of suspected IUU vessels and trade flows, cooperation aimed at prosecuting suspected offenders or developing new policy measures. Our results suggest the importance of a central agency for coordination and for maintaining commonly agreed-upon protocols for communication that facilities collaboration. Despite their differences, the surveyed organizations have developed common perceptions about key problems associated with IUU fishing. This has likely contributed to a sustained willingness to invest in collaborations. Our results show that successful international environmental governance can be accomplished through interorganizational collaborations. Such cooperation requires trust, continuous funding, and incentives for actors to participate.

Women's fashions in transition: Ottoman borderlands and the Anglo-Ottoman exchange of costumes.

Following the considerable increase in the interactions between Ottomans and Europeans, Ottoman port cities, referred to here as "borderlands," became meeting places of distinct worlds. Ottoman and British people met, clashed, and grappled with each other in the borderlands of the Ottoman Empire. There was unbalanced, disparate, and disproportionate, but also mutual and constant interchange between the two societies. This article discusses one facet of this interchange: the Anglo-Ottoman exchange of women's costumes.

The empty forest revisited.

Tropical forests are among the most species-rich ecosystems on the planet. Some authors argue that predictions of a tropical forest extinction crisis based on analyses of deforestation rates are overly pessimistic since they do not take account of future agricultural abandonment as a result of rural-urban migration and subsequent secondary regrowth. Even if such regrowth occurs, it is crucial to consider threats to species that are not directly correlated with area of forest cover. Hunting is an insidious but significant driver of tropical forest defaunation, risking cascading changes in forest plant and animal composition. Ineffective legislation and enforcement along with a failure of decision makers to address the threats of hunting is fanning the fire of a tropical forest extinction crisis. If tropical forest ecosystems are to survive, the threat of unsustainable hunting must be adequately addressed now.

Adapting to regional enforcement: fishing down the governance index.

BACKGROUND: Illegal, Unreported and Unregulated (IUU) fishing is a problem for marine resource managers, leading to depletion of fish stocks and negative impacts on marine ecosystems. These problems are particularly evident in regions with weak governance. Countries responsible for sustainable natural resource management in the Southern Ocean have actively worked to reduce IUU fishing in the region over a period of 15 years, leading to a sequence of three distinct peaks of IUU fishing. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We reviewed existing public records relating to IUU fishing in the Southern Ocean between 1995-2009 and related this information to the governance capacity of flag states responsible for IUU vessels. IUU operators used a number of methods to adapt to enforcement actions, resulting in reduced risks of detection, apprehension and sanctioning. They changed fishing locations, vessel names and flag states, and ports for offloading IUU catches. There was a significant decrease in the proportion of IUU vessels flagged to CCAMLR countries, and a significant decrease in the average governance index of flag states. Despite a decreasing trend of IUU fishing, further actions are hampered by the regional scope of CCAMLR and the governance capacity of responsible states. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: This is the first study of long-term change in the modus operandi of IUU fishing operators, illustrating that IUU operators can adapt to enforcement actions and that such dynamics may lead to new problems elsewhere, where countries have a limited capacity. This outsourcing of problems may have similarities to natural resource extraction in other sectors and in other regions. IUU fishing is the result of a number of factors, and effectively addressing this major challenge to sustainable marine resource extraction will likely require a stronger focus on governance. Highly mobile resource extractors with substantial funds are able to adapt to changing regulations by exploiting countries and regions with limited capacity.