Research on the income and expenditure forecast of long-term care insurance fund in Shihezi City based on community care.

Objective: This study forecasts the income and expenditures of the long-term care insurance fund, provides a basis for formulating the raising standard of the long-term care insurance fund, and explores the measures to improve the pilot work of long-term care insurance. Methods: By using the exponential smoothing and ARIMA models to forecast the income and expenditure of the old-age care insurance fund in 2022, the problems existing in the operation of the long-term care insurance fund are discussed. Results: In 2022, the income of the old-age insurance fund was 28.8934 million yuan, and the fund compensation expenditure was 28.4070 million yuan, with a slight balance of the fund. The highest relative errors of income and expenditure forecast models are -2.03% and - 2.76%, respectively. According to the results of fund expenditure, the annual financing standard should be 132.93 yuan/person, and the individual financing standard should be 66.47 yuan/person. Conclusion: Through the integration of personal payment, welfare, sports lottery public welfare income, social donations, and other ways, we can gradually establish a multi-channel risk-sharing financing. We will appropriately raise the standard for individual financing and the annual contribution standard for individuals from 50 yuan to 66.47 yuan. This will promote sustainable development of long-term insurance system.

The effects of digital economy development on social insurance funds revenue: Evidence from China.

China has experienced rapid development in the digital economy. Using data from 30 provinces in China between 2011 and 2017, this paper constructs a two-way fixed effects model to study the effects and mechanisms of the digital economy development on social insurance funds revenue. An increase of one unit in digital economy development led to a 0.56% increase in basic endowment insurance funds revenue and a 0.33% increase in basic health insurance funds revenue. The digital economy increased the social insurance funds revenue by promoting employment and increasing income. Furthermore, the effects of digital economic development on social insurance funds revenue were heterogeneous for different levels of economic development and urbanization. The conclusions stood after robustness tests by changing the method of weighting the digital economy indicators and using instrumental variables. This paper confirmed the positive role of the development of the digital economy in increasing the revenue of social insurance funds from the perspective of quantitative research and explored the mechanisms in depth. In order to increase social insurance funds revenue, it is essential to accelerate the development of the digital economy, especially in regions with lower economic development and urbanization, and to address the needs of the technically unemployed and those engaged in flexible employment.

Inequality of the crowding-out effect of tobacco expenditure in Colombia.

In recent decades, policy initiatives involving increases in the tobacco tax have increased pressure on budget allocations in poor households. In this study, we examine this issue in the context of the expansion of the social welfare state that has taken place over the last two decades in several emerging economies. This study explores the case of Colombia between 1997 and 2011. In this period, the budget share of the poorest expenditure quintile devoted to tobacco products of smokers' households doubled. We analyse the differences between the poorest and richest quintiles concerning the changes in budget shares, fixing a reference population over time to avoid demographic composition confounders. We find no evidence of crowding-out of education or healthcare expenditures. This is likely to be the result of free universal access to health insurance and basic education for the poor. For higher-income households, tobacco crowds out expenditures on entertainment, leisure activities, and luxury expenditures. This finding should reassure policymakers who are keen to impose tobacco taxes as an element of their public health policy.

Operationalizing patient-centered cancer care in low- and middle-income countries.

Rising cancer survival rates in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) necessitate a paradigm shift to holistic, patient-driven care, focusing on meaningful outcomes aligned with individual values. Data, co-creation, continuous improvement, and collaboration are key. By prioritizing patient-defined metrics and patient empowerment, LMICs can transform cancer care, fostering sustained well-being beyond disease control.

Factors influencing female students' entrepreneurial intention in vocational colleges: A multi-group analysis based on household income.

Female entrepreneurs have irreplaceable status and essential significance in entrepreneurship research. Improving females' entrepreneurial intentions is an important topic in this area. Accordingly, this study, based on the theory of planned behavior, investigates the factors that affect female students' entrepreneurial intention at China's vocational colleges and whether household income moderates the relationship between entrepreneurial education, attitude, competence, self-efficacy and entrepreneurial intention. 2149 females from vocational colleges in Guangdong Province, Zhejiang Province, and Jiangxi Province were randomly chosen to participate in the study. They had taken part in entrepreneurial courses throughout 2021-2022. In addition, data were analyzed by structural equation modeling partial least squares. The results demonstrate that entrepreneurial education did not directly affect female students' intentions. Entrepreneurial competence, self-efficacy, and attitude positively affect entrepreneurial intention. It is further concluded that household income significantly moderates the relationship between entrepreneurial education, attitude, competence, and intention. However, there is no significant difference in the relationship between self-efficacy and entrepreneurial intention between high and low-household-income students. While females continue to confront sexism in the workplace, it is crucial that we conduct empirical research into the factors influencing female entrepreneurial intention to boost economic growth and gender parity. This research helps bridge a gap in the prior literature and adds substantial value to encouraging female entrepreneurs.

Socioeconomic impact and sufficiency of government financial support during COVID-19 pandemic: A retrospective study.

This study examines the socioeconomic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the sufficiency of government support. Based on an online survey with 920 respondents, the cross-tabulation and binary logistic regression results show: firstly, in terms of loss of income, male respondents are more likely to have a loss of income as compared to female counterparts, and secondly, among different categories of employment status, the self-employed respondents are the most vulnerable group, given that more than 20 percent of them experienced loss of income due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Moreover, respondents working in small-and-medium enterprises (SMEs) and the informal sector are more likely to face loss of income as compared to respondents working in other sectors of employment. Likewise, respondents without tertiary education level are more likely to have a loss of income as compared to respondents with university certification. The baseline results highlight the insufficiency of government financial support programs based on the perspective of Malaysians from different demographic backgrounds. As a policy implication, the findings could guide the State in formulating the right policies for target groups who need more assistance than others in the community.

Measurement and determinants of multidimensional urban poverty: Evidence from Shandong Province, China.

China eliminated rural poverty under current poverty standards in 2020. However, compared with rural poverty, urban poverty in China has been somewhat neglected. This paper aims to discover the changes and determinants of multidimensional urban poverty in Shandong Province, a representative province in Eastern China. Using a nationally representative panel dataset, the China Family Panel Studies, and the Dual Cutoff method, this study creates a multidimensional poverty index with four dimensions and 11 indicators to measure urban poverty in Shandong Province. This paper discovers that while the incidence of multidimensional urban poverty in Shandong Province decreased from 47.62% in 2010 to 36.45% in 2018, the intensity of multidimensional poverty only decreased from 41.27% to 37.25%, which indicates the inadequacy of urban anti-poverty efforts in Shandong Province. This paper also uses logistic regression to identify the determinants of multidimensional urban poverty. The findings suggest that income, health, drinking water, and durable goods are the main determinants of multidimensional urban poverty in Shandong Province. Based on these findings, this study provides targeted recommendations for future urban anti-poverty policies in Shandong Province.

Height & income: Labor returns of health in Mexico from 2000 to 2018.

Investment in health has been proposed as a mechanism to promote upward social mobility. Previous analyses have reported inconsistent estimates of the returns to investment in health in Mexico based on different models for different years. We aim to estimate returns for Mexico using data from four time points Adult height and labor income are drawn from the periodical national health and nutrition surveys-a group of relatively standardized surveys-that are representative of individuals living in the country in 2000, 2006, 2012 & 2018. These surveys collect anthropometric measurements and information on individuals' labor income. We estimated Mincerian models separately for men and women using OLS, Heckman, instrumental variables, and Heckman with instrumental variables models. Our results indicate significant and positive returns to health for the four surveys, similar in magnitude across years for women and with variations for men. By 2018, returns to health were about 7.4% per additional centimeter in height for females and 9.3% for males. Investments in health and nutrition during childhood and adolescence that increase health capital-measured as adult height-may promote social mobility in Mexico and similar countries to the extent that these investments differentially increase health capital among the poor.

The impact of digital inclusive financial development on local government expenditure: Evidence from China.

This paper investigates the impact of digital inclusive financial development on local government expenditure incentives at the income level. It does so by constructing a multi-level government Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model that incorporates the financial sector. By employing empirical methods that involve uncertainty shocks and counterfactual simulations, the research yields several key findings. Firstly, the development of digital inclusive finance contributes to breaking down the urban-rural dual financial structure, thus facilitating balanced economic development within regions. Secondly, it reduces the proportion of financially excluded areas, accelerates fiscal decentralization, leading to an increase in local government fiscal revenue, and, consequently, an expansion of local fiscal expenditures. Thirdly, at a certain stage of digital inclusive finance development, it tends to crowd out residents' investment and consumption. Therefore, the decentralization of fiscal power and the expansion of local government expenditure at this stage may paradoxically inhibit regional economic growth. The study's conclusions validate the significant impact of digital inclusive finance on local government incentives at the income level.

The substitution effect of financial and non-financial incentives at different income levels in physician recruitment: evidence from medical students in China.

BACKGROUND: Understanding how medical students respond to financial and non-financial incentives is crucial for recruiting health workers and attracting health talents in medical education. However, both incentives are integrated in working practice, and existing theoretical studies have suggested that various income levels may influence the substitution effect of both incentives, while the empirical evidence is lacking. Furthermore, little attention has been paid to the intrinsic motivation. This study aimed to explore the substitution effect of extrinsic incentives at different income levels, also taking intrinsic altruism into account. METHODS: We used the behavioral data from Zhang et al.'s experiments, which involved discrete choice experiments (DCEs) to assess the job preferences of medical students from six teaching hospitals in Beijing, China. The incentive factors included monthly income, work location, work environment, training and career development opportunities, work load, and professional recognition. Additionally, a lab-like experiment in the medical decision-making context was conducted to quantify altruism based on utility function. Furthermore, we separated the choice sets based on the actual income and distinguished the medical students on altruism. The willingness to pay (WTP) was used to estimate the substitution effect of incentives through conditional logit model. RESULTS: There was a significant substitution effect between non-financial and financial incentives. As income increased, non-financial incentives such as an excellent work environment, and sufficient career development became relatively more important. The impact of the increase in income on the substitution effect was more pronounced among individuals with higher altruism. Concerning the non-financial incentive work environment, in contrast to the growth of 546 CNY (84 USD) observed in the low-altruism group, the high-altruism group experienced a growth of 1040 CNY (160 USD) in the substitution effect. CONCLUSIONS: The increase in the income level exerted an influence on the substitution effect of non-financial incentives and financial incentives, especially in high-altruism medical students. Policymakers should attach importance to a favorable environment and promising career prospects on the basis of ensuring a higher income level. Medical school administrations should focus on promoting altruistic values in medical education, enhancing talent incentives and teaching strategies to encourage medical students to devote themselves to the medical professions.

Welfare effect analysis of pay-as-you-go pension system: Deconstruction from the perspective of relative utility and social equality.

This paper studies the redistributive effects of two major pay-as-you-go pension systems by constructing an intergenerational iterative model which does not only considers standard utility but also relative utility. The study find that the two main pay-as-you-go pension systems are both sustainable. If we consider different preferences, then the choice of pension system should depend on the question of whether individuals are more interested in the absolute level of consumption or in the consumption related to a reference group. If the latter is more important, the Beveridgean system is superior, it provides greater protection for vulnerable groups than the Bismarck pension system, and the pension income after retirement is relatively more balanced, but the price is a lower level of consumption in the long run compared to an economy with Bismarckian system. If individuals prefer instead the absolute level of consumption, the Bismarckian system is better, because it guarantees a comparable higher level of consumption, but the disadvantaged groups face a higher risk of poverty and the degree of social inequality will be relatively higher. However, it is important to note that in the long run, only the level of consumption differs, not the speed of growth or number of children.

Long-term health conditions and UK labour market outcomes during the COVID-19 pandemic.

BACKGROUND: Long-term health conditions can affect labour market outcomes. COVID-19 may have increased labour market inequalities, e.g. due to restricted opportunities for clinically vulnerable people. Evaluating COVID-19's impact could help target support. AIM: To quantify the effect of several long-term conditions on UK labour market outcomes during the COVID-19 pandemic and compare them to pre-pandemic outcomes. METHODS: The Understanding Society COVID-19 survey collected responses from around 20,000 UK residents in nine waves from April 2020-September 2021. Participants employed in January/February 2020 with a variety of long-term conditions were matched with people without the condition but with similar baseline characteristics. Models estimated probability of employment, hours worked and earnings. We compared these results with results from a two-year pre-pandemic period. We also modelled probability of furlough and home-working frequency during COVID-19. RESULTS: Most conditions (asthma, arthritis, emotional/nervous/psychiatric problems, vascular/pulmonary/liver conditions, epilepsy) were associated with reduced employment probability and/or hours worked during COVID-19, but not pre-pandemic. Furlough was more likely for people with pulmonary conditions. People with arthritis and cancer were slower to return to in-person working. Few effects were seen for earnings. CONCLUSION: COVID-19 had a disproportionate impact on people with long-term conditions' labour market outcomes.

The Gender Wage Gap Among Early-Career Family Physicians.

PURPOSE: Numerous studies have documented salary differences between male and female physicians. For many specialties, this wage gap has been explored by controlling for measurable factors that influence pay such as productivity, work-life balance, and practice patterns. In family medicine where practice activities differ widely between physicians, it is important to understand what measurable factors may be contributing to the gender wage gap, so that employers and policymakers and can address unjust disparities. METHODS: We used data from the 2017 to 2020 American Board of Family Medicine (ABFM) National Graduate Survey (NGS) which is administered to family physicians 3 years after residency (n = 8608; response rate = 63.9%, 56.2% female). The survey collects clinical income and practice patterns. Multiple linear regression analysis was performed, which included variables on hours worked, degree type, principal professional activity, rural/urban, and region. RESULTS: Although early-career family physician incomes averaged $225,278, female respondents reported incomes that were $43,566 (17%) lower than those of male respondents (P = .001). Generally, female respondents tended toward lower-earning principal professional activities and US regions; worked fewer hours (2.9 per week); and tended to work more frequently in urban settings. However, in adjusted models, this gap in income only fell to $31,804 (13% lower than male respondents, P = .001). CONCLUSION: Even after controlling for measurable factors such as hours worked, degree type, principal professional activity, population density, and region, a significant wage gap persists. Interventions should be taken to eliminate gender bias in wage determinations for family physicians.

Economic impact of informal caring for a person with arthritis in Australia from 2015 to 2030: a microsimulation approach using national survey data.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the economic burden of informal caregivers not in the labour force (NILF) due to caring for a person with arthritis in Australia, with projections of these costs from 2015 to 2030. DESIGN: Static microsimulation modelling using national survey data. SETTING: Australia nationwide survey. PARTICIPANTS: Participants include respondents to the Survey of Disability, Ageing and Carers who are informal carers of a person who has arthritis as their main chronic condition and non-carers. OUTCOME MEASURES: Estimating the economic impact and national aggregated costs of informal carers NILF to care for a person with arthritis and projecting these costs from 2015 to 2030 in 5-year intervals. RESULTS: On a per-person basis, when adjusted for age, sex and highest education attained, the difference in average weekly total income between informal carers and non-carers employed in the labour force is $A1051 (95% CI: $A927 to $A1204) in 2015 and projected to increase by up to 22% by 2030. When aggregated, the total national annual loss of income to informal carers NILF is estimated at $A388.2 million (95% CI: $A324.3 to $A461.9 million) in 2015, increasing to $A576.9 million (95% CI: $A489.2 to $A681.8 million) by 2030. The national annual tax revenue lost to the government of the informal carers NILF is estimated at $A99 million (95% CI: $A77.9 to $A126.4 million) in 2015 and is projected to increase 49% by 2030. CONCLUSION: Informal carers NILF are economically worse off than employed non-carers, and the aggregated national annual costs are substantial. The future economic impact of informal carers NILF to care for a person with arthritis in Australia is projected to increase, with the estimated differences in income between informal carers and employed non-carers increasing by 22% from 2015 to 2030.

Analyzing the process of achieving common wealth for different groups in China based on the opportunity advantage perspective of income distribution.

Realizing the common wealth of all people is the essential requirement of socialism with Chinese characteristics. Measuring the process of realizing common wealth and the differences between groups is one of the important issues that need to be addressed urgently. In order to reasonably measure the process of realizing common wealth in China, on the premise of horizontal comparability and vertical consistency, the principles of comparability and consistency are introduced, and a comparative method of opportunity advantage based on income distribution is proposed from the perspective of opportunity equity. Using the 2012-2020 CFPS data to measure and test the opportunity advantages and their differences across regions and groups in China. The study found, firstly, that the opportunity advantage persists but tends to diminish across groups, with the more educated group having a more pronounced opportunity advantage, but that this advantage is diminishing over time. Secondly, the doctoral degree group has a greater probability of earning higher incomes, followed by the master's and bachelor's degree groups, but this opportunity advantage, i.e., the probability of earning higher incomes, is diminishing, i.e., the education dividend is diminishing. Third, the difference in opportunity advantage between urban and rural areas still exists, as evidenced by the greater probability of higher incomes in towns than in rural areas, but this advantage has narrowed further over time, with a clear process of urban-rural integration. Fourthly, in terms of gender, men have a certain opportunity advantage over women, but this difference is not significant. Fifthly, in the context of education levels, gender and urban/rural subgroups, under the framework proposed in this paper, China has achieved some success in the process of realizing the common wealth, and is showing a steady upward trend.

Economic and financial viability of a pig farm in central semi-tropical Mexico: 2022-2026 prospective.

To estimate the economic and financial viability of a pig farm in central sub-tropical Mexico within a 5-year planning horizon, a Monte Carlo simulation model was utilized. Net returns were projected using simulated values for the distribution of input and product processes, establishing 2021 as base scenario. A stochastic modelling approach was employed to determine the economic and financial outlook. The findings reveal a panorama of economic and financial viability. Net income increased by 555%, return on assets rose from 3.36% in 2022 to 11.34% in 2026, and the probability of decapitalization dropped from 58% to 13%, respectively in the aforesaid periods. Similarly, the probability of obtaining negative net income decreased from 40% in 2022 to 18% in 2026. The technological, productive, and economic management of the production unit allowed for a favorable scenario within the planning horizon. There is a growing interest in predicting the economic sectors worth investing in and supporting, considering their economic and development performance. This research offers both methodological and scientific evidence to demonstrate the feasibility of establishing a planning schedule and validating the suitability of the pork sector for public investment and support.

Health-related quality of life and impact of socioeconomic status among primary and secondary school students after the third COVID-19 wave in Berlin, Germany.

In the earlier phases of the COVID-19 pandemic, studies in Germany and elsewhere found an overall reduction in health-related quality of life (HRQoL) among students. However, there is little evidence on later pandemic stages as well as socioeconomic influencing factors. We aimed to (1) describe HRQoL in a Berlin student cohort at two time points in mid-2021, and to (2) analyze the effects of household income and education. We assessed HRQoL of students from 24 randomly selected primary and secondary schools in Berlin, Germany, with the KIDSCREEN-10 index in June and September 2021. To adjust for non-response bias, inverse probability weighting was applied. The potential effects of both household income and education (lower vs. higher) were estimated in generalized linear mixed models, based on prior assumptions presented in directed acyclic graphs. Our cohort comprised 660 students aged 7-19 years. In June 2021, 11.3% [95% CI = 9.0% - 14.0%] reported low HRQoL, whereas in September 2021, this increased to 13.7% [95% CI = 11.1% - 16.5%], with adolescent girls more frequently reporting low HRQoL at both time points (20% [95% CI = 17.1% - 23.3%] and 29% [95% CI = 25.5% - 32.5%]) compared to boys and younger children. While there was no statistically significant total effect of lower household income on HRQoL, a negative effect of lower household education was statistically significant (ß = -2.15, SE 0.95, 95% CI = -4.01 to -0.29, p = 0.024). In summary, students' HRQoL in mid-2021 was better than that documented in other studies conducted at pandemic onset using KIDSCREEN-10. Female adolescents reported low HRQoL more often, and lower household education significantly reduced children's HRQoL. Support strategies for psychosocial wellbeing should consider socioeconomically disadvantaged children as important target groups.

Equity implications of tobacco taxation: results from WHO FCTC investment cases.

BACKGROUND: Across time, geographies and country income levels, smoking prevalence is highest among people with lower incomes. Smoking causes further impoverishment of those on the lower end of the income spectrum through expenditure on tobacco and greater risk of ill health. METHODS: This paper summarises the results of investment case equity analyses for 19 countries, presenting the effects of increased taxation on smoking prevalence, health and expenditures. We disaggregate the number of people who smoke, smoking-attributable mortality and cigarette expenditures using smoking prevalence data by income quintile. A uniform 30% increase in price was applied across countries. We estimated the effects of the price increase on smoking prevalence, mortality and cigarette expenditures. RESULTS: In all but one country (Bhutan), a one-time 30% increase in price would reduce smoking prevalence by the largest percent among the poorest 20% of the population. All income groups in all countries would spend more on cigarettes with a 30% increase in price. However, the poorest 20% would pay an average of 12% of the additional money spent. CONCLUSIONS: Our results confirm that health benefits from increases in price through taxation are pro-poor. Even in countries where smoking prevalence is higher among wealthier groups, increasing prices can still be pro-poor due to variable responsiveness to higher prices. The costs associated with higher smoking prevalence among the poor, together with often limited access to healthcare services and displaced spending on basic needs, result in health inequality and perpetuate the cycle of poverty.