Does Public Spending Reflect the Need for Health: A Cross-sectional Analysis at District Level in India.

BACKGROUND: There is mixed evidence on the extent of association between the allocation of public revenue for healthcare and its indicators of need. OBJECTIVE: In this study, we examined the relationship between allocations through state health financing (SHF) and the Central Government with infant mortality. MATERIALS AND METHODS: District-wise infant mortality rate (IMR) was computed using National Family Health Survey-4 data. State-wise data for health budgets through SHF and National Health Mission (NHM, a Centrally Sponsored Scheme), were obtained for the year 2015-16. We used a multivariable analysis through generalized linear model method using identity-link function. RESULTS: We found per capita SHF (₹3169) to be more than 12 times that of public health spending per capita through NHM (₹261). IMR was lower in districts with higher SHF allocation, although statistically insignificant. The allocation through NHM was higher in districts with higher IMR, which is statistically significant. Every unit percentage increase in per capita net state domestic product and female literacy led to 0.31% and 0.54% decline, while a 1% increase in under-five diarrhoea prevalence led to 0.17% increase in IMR. CONCLUSION: The NHM has contributed to enhancing vertical equity in health-care financing. The States' need to be more responsive to the differences in districts while allocating health-care resources. There needs to be a focus on spending on social determinants, which should be the cornerstone for any universal health coverage strategy.

Predicting fertility, neonatal and perinatal mortality, and stillbirths for evaluation of the needs for perinatal care in the future post-war reconstruction of Ukraine.

OBJECTIVE: Aim: To predict trends in fertility, neonatal and perinatal mortality, and stillbirth rates to ascertain future perinatal care requirements during the post-war reconstruction in Ukraine. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Materials and Methods: The study uses the data from the Centre for Medical Statistics of the Ministry of Health of Ukraine, covering the years 2012 to 2022. The data analysis was by a univariate linear regression model. The quality of these models was evaluated using the coefficient of determination, R2. RESULTS: Results: In 2022, the birth rate in Ukraine had declined to 2.5 times lower than that of 2011. The period was characterized by a notable increase in the incidence of premature births and in neonates with birth weights under 1000 grams and between 1000 to 2499 grams. While the neonatal mortality rate decreased by 3.7 times, there remains a statistically significant (p<0.05) increase in the mortality rates of premature infants and neonates weighing less than 1000 grams. The stillbirth rate in Ukraine remains constant; however, it exceeds that of the European Union. Predictions indicate a rise in antenatal mortality and a reduction in both intranatal and perinatal mortality. As of 2022, the perinatal mortality rate in Ukraine made up 7.72 per 1000 live births, which is significantly higher than the rate in the European Union. CONCLUSION: Conclusions: The optimization of the network of healthcare facilities and resources should be prioritized, in response to the reliable decline in the birth rate. This necessitates improvements in the medical care for premature and low birth weight infants, and efforts for preventing stillbirths.

Early neonatal mortality and determinants in sub-Saharan Africa: Findings from recent demographic and health survey data.

INTRODUCTION: Neonatal mortality during the first week of life is a global issue that is responsible for a large portion of deaths among children under the age of five. There are, however, very few reports about the issue in sub-Saharan Africa. For the sake of developing appropriate policies and initiatives that could aid in addressing the issue, it is important to study the prevalence of mortality during the early neonatal period and associated factors. Thus, the aim of this study was to ascertain the prevalence of and pinpoint the contributing factors to early neonatal mortality in sub-Saharan Africa. METHOD: Data from recent demographic and health surveys in sub-Saharan African countries was used for this study. The study included 262,763 live births in total. The determinants of early newborn mortality were identified using a multilevel mixed-effects logistic regression model. To determine the strength and significance of the association between outcome and explanatory variables, the adjusted odds ratio (AOR) at a 95% confidence interval (CI) was computed. Independent variables were deemed statistically significant when the p-value was less than the significance level (0.05). RESULT: Early neonatal mortality in sub-Saharan Africa was 22.94 deaths per 1,000 live births. It was found to be significantly associated with maternal age over 35 years (AOR = 1.77, 95% CI: 1.34-2.33), low birth weight (AOR = 3.27, 95% CI: 2.16, 4.94), less than four ANC visits (AOR = 1.12, 95% CI: 1.01, 1.33), delivery with caesarean section (AOR = 1.81, 95% CI: 1.30-2.5), not having any complications during pregnancy (AOR = 0.76, 95% CI: 0.61, 94), and community poverty (AOR = 1.32, 95% CI: 1.05-1.65). CONCLUSION: This study found that about twenty-three neonates out of one thousand live births died within the first week of life in sub-Saharan Africa. The age of mothers, birth weight, antenatal care service utilization, mode of delivery, multiple pregnancy, complications during pregnancy, and community poverty should be considered while designing policies and strategies targeting early neonatal mortality in sub-Saharan Africa.

Trends in maternal and child health in China and its urban and rural areas from 1991 to 2020: a joinpoint regression model.

The long-term trends in maternal and child health (MCH) in China and the national-level factors that may be associated with these changes have been poorly explored. This study aimed to assess trends in MCH indicators nationally and separately in urban and rural areas and the impact of public policies over a 30‒year period. An ecological study was conducted using data on neonatal mortality rate (NMR), infant mortality rate (IMR), under-five mortality rate (U5MR), and maternal mortality ratio (MMR) nationally and separately in urban and rural areas in China from 1991 to 2020. Joinpoint regression models were used to estimate the annual percentage changes (APC), average annual percentage changes (AAPC) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs), and mortality differences between urban and rural areas. From 1991 to 2020, maternal and child mortalities in China gradually declined (national AAPC [95% CI]: NMRs - 7.7% [- 8.6%, - 6.8%], IMRs - 7.5% [- 8.4%, - 6.6%], U5MRs - 7.5% [- 8.5%, - 6.5%], MMRs - 5.0% [- 5.7%, - 4.4%]). However, the rate of decline nationally in child mortality slowed after 2005, and in maternal mortality after 2013. For all indicators, the decline in mortality was greater in rural areas than in urban areas. The AAPCs in rate differences between rural and urban areas were - 8.5% for NMRs, - 8.6% for IMRs, - 7.7% for U5MRs, and - 9.6% for MMRs. The AAPCs in rate ratios (rural vs. urban) were - 1.2 for NMRs, - 2.1 for IMRs, - 1.7 for U5MRs, and - 1.9 for MMRs. After 2010, urban‒rural disparity in MMR did not diminish and in NMR, IMR, and U5MR, it gradually narrowed but persisted. MCH indicators have declined at the national level as well as separately in urban and rural areas but may have reached a plateau. Urban‒rural disparities in MCH indicators have narrowed but still exist. Regular analyses of temporal trends in MCH are necessary to assess the effectiveness of measures for timely adjustments.

Antenatal care coverage and early childhood mortality in Zimbabwe: new interpretations from nationally representative household surveys.

Zimbabwe has implemented universal antenatal care (ANC) policies since 1980 that have significantly contributed to improvements in ANC access and early childhood mortality rates. However, Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) and Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICS), two of Zimbabwe's main sources of health data and evidence, often provide seemingly different estimates of ANC coverage and under-five mortality rates. This creates confusion that can result in disparate policies and practices, with potential negative impacts on mother and child health in Zimbabwe. We conducted a comparability analysis of multiple DHS and MICS datasets to enhance the understanding of point estimates, temporal changes, rural-urban differences and reliability of estimates of ANC coverage and neonatal, infant and under-five mortality rates (NMR, IMR and U5MR, separately) from 2009 to 2019 in Zimbabwe. Our two samples z-tests revealed that both DHS and MICS indicated significant increases in ANC coverage and declines in IMR and U5MR but only from 2009 to 2015. NMR neither increased nor declined from 2009 to 2019. Rural-urban differences were significant for ANC coverage (2009-15 only) but not for NMR, IMR and U5MR. We found that there is a need for more precise DHS and MICS estimates of urban ANC coverage and all estimates of NMR, IMR and U5MR, and that shorter recall periods provide more reliable estimates of ANC coverage in Zimbabwe. Our findings represent new interpretations and clearer insights into progress and gaps around ANC coverage and under-five mortality rates that can inform the development, implementation, monitoring and evaluation of policy and practice responses and further research in Zimbabwe.

Early-Neonatal, Late-Neonatal, Postneonatal, and Child Mortality Rates Across India, 1993-2021.

Importance: The global success of the child survival agenda depends on how rapidly mortality at early ages after birth declines in India, and changes need to be monitored to evaluate the status. Objective: To understand the disaggregated patterns of decrease in early-life mortality across states and union territories (UTs) of India. Design, Setting, and Participants: Repeated cross-sectional data from the 5 rounds of the National Family Health Survey conducted in 1992-1993, 1998-1999, 2005-2006, 2015-2016, and 2019-2021 were used in a representative population-based study. The study was based on data of children born in the past 5 years with complete information on date of birth and age at death. The analysis was conducted in February 2024. Exposure: Time and geographic units. Main Outcomes and Measures: Mortality rates were computed for 4 early-life periods: early-neonatal (first 7 days), late-neonatal (8-28 days), postneonatal (29 days to 11 months), and child (12-59 months). For early and late neonatal periods, the rates are expressed as deaths per 1000 live births, for postneonatal, as deaths per 1000 children aged at least 29 days and for child, deaths per 1000 children aged at least 1 year. These are collectively mentioned as deaths per 1000 for all mortalities. The relative burden of each of the age-specific mortalities to total mortality in children younger than 5 years was also computed. Results: The final analytical sample included 33 667 (1993), 29 549 (1999), 23 020 (2006), 82 294 (2016), and 64 242 (2021) children who died before their fifth birthday in the past 5 years of each survey. Mortality rates were lowest for the late-neonatal and child periods; early-neonatal was the highest in 2021. Child mortality experienced the most substantial decrease between 1993 and 2021, from 33.5 to 6.9 deaths per 1000, accompanied by a substantial reduction in interstate inequalities. While early-neonatal (from 33.5 to 20.3 deaths per 1000), late-neonatal (from 14.1 to 4.1 deaths per 1000), and postneonatal (from 31.0 to 10.8 deaths per 1000) mortality also decreased, interstate inequalities remained notable. The mortality burden shifted over time and is now concentrated during the early-neonatal (48.3% of total deaths in children younger than 5 years) and postneonatal (25.6%) periods. A stagnation or worsening for certain states and UTs was observed from 2016 to 2021 for early-neonatal, late-neonatal, and postneonatal mortality. If this pattern continues, these states and UTs will not meet the United Nations Sustainable Development Goal targets related to child survival. Conclusions and Relevance: In this repeated cross-sectional study of 5 time periods, the decrease in mortality during early-neonatal and postneonatal phases of mortality was relatively slower, with notable variations across states and UTs. The findings suggest that policies pertaining to early-neonatal and postneonatal mortalities need to be prioritized and targeting of policies and interventions needs to be context-specific.

Retrospective analysis of mortality among children under 5 years of age in Huangshi over the period 2002-2022, China.

BACKGROUND: The United Nations' Millennium Development Goals and Sustainable Development Goals both underscore the critical need to reduce the under-five mortality rate globally. China has made remarkable progress in decreasing the mortality rate of children under five. This study aims to examine the trends in child mortality rates from 2002 to 2022 and the causes of deaths among neonates, infants, and children under 5 years of age from 2013 to 2022 in Huangshi. METHODS: The data resource was supported and provided by the Huangshi Health Commission, Huangshi Maternal and Child Health Hospital, and the Huangshi Statistics Bureau. Figures were drawn using Origin 2021. RESULTS: The mortality rate among children under 5 years old significantly decreased, from 21.38 per 1,000 live births in 2002 to 3.53 per 1,000 live births in 2022. The infant mortality rate also saw a significant decline, to 15.06 per 1,000 live births. Among the 1,929 recorded child deaths from 2013 to 2022, the top three causes were: F2 (Disorders related to short gestation and low birth weight), accounting for 17.26% (333 deaths); I1 (Accidental drowning and submersion), for 14.83% (286 deaths); and I3 (Other accidental threats to breathing), for 12.29% (237 deaths). Of the 1,929 deaths, 1,117 were male children, representing 57.91%. The gender disparity in the Under-5 Mortality Rate (U5MR) was calculated to be 1.38 (boys to girls). The leading causes of death under the age of five shifted from F2 (Disorders related to short gestation and low birth weight) to I1 (Accidental drowning and submersion) as children aged, highlighting the need for policymakers and parents to intensify care and vigilance for children. CONCLUSIONS: Huangshi has achieved significant progress in lowering child mortality rates over the past two decades. The study calls for policymakers to enact more effective measures to further reduce the mortality rate among children under 5 years of age in Huangshi. Furthermore, it advises parents to dedicate more time and effort to supervising and nurturing their children, promoting a safer and healthier development.

Making the health system work for over 25 million births annually: drivers of the notable decline in maternal and newborn mortality in India.

INTRODUCTION: India's progress in reducing maternal and neonatal mortality since the 1990s was faster than the regional average. We systematically analysed how national health policies, services for maternal and newborn health, and socioeconomic contextual changes, drove these mortality reductions. METHODS: The study's mixed-methods design integrated quantitative trend analyses of mortality, intervention coverage and equity since the 1990s, using the sample registration system and national surveys, with interpretive understandings from policy documents and 13 key informant interviews. RESULTS: India's maternal mortality ratio (MMR) declined from 412 to 103 maternal deaths per 100 000 live births between 1997-1998 and 2017-2019. The neonatal mortality rate (NMR) declined from 46 to 22 per 1000 live births between 1997 and 2019. The average annual rate of mortality reduction increased over time. During this period, coverage of any antenatal care (57%-94%), quality antenatal care (37%-85%) and institutional delivery (34%-90%) increased, as did caesarean section rates among the poorest tertile (2%-9%); these coverage gains occurred primarily in the government (public) sector. The fastest rates for increasing coverage occurred during 2005-2012.The 2005-2012 National Rural Health Mission (which became the National Health Mission in 2012) catalysed bureaucratic innovations, additional resources, pro-poor commitments and accountability. These efforts occurred alongside smaller family sizes and improvements in macroeconomic growth, mobile and road networks, women's empowerment, and nutrition. These together reduced high-risk births and improved healthcare access, particularly among the poor. CONCLUSION: Rapid reduction in NMR and MMR in India was accompanied by increased coverage of maternal and newborn health interventions. Government programmes strengthened public sector services, thereby expanding the reach of these interventions. Simultaneously, socioeconomic and demographic shifts led to fewer high-risk births. The study's integrated methodology is relevant for generating comprehensive knowledge to advance universal health coverage.

Effective multi-sectoral approach for rapid reduction in maternal and neonatal mortality: the exceptional case of Bangladesh.

BACKGROUND: Bangladesh experienced impressive reductions in maternal and neonatal mortality over the past several decades with annual rates of decline surpassing 4% since 2000. We comprehensively assessed health system and non-health factors that drove Bangladesh's success in mortality reduction. METHODS: We operationalised a comprehensive conceptual framework and analysed available household surveys for trends and inequalities in mortality, intervention coverage and quality of care. These include 12 household surveys totalling over 1.3 million births in the 15 years preceding the surveys. Literature and desk reviews permitted a reconstruction of policy and programme development and financing since 1990. These were supplemented with key informant interviews to understand implementation decisions and strategies. RESULTS: Bangladesh prioritised early population policies to manage its rapidly growing population through community-based family planning programmes initiated in mid-1970s. These were followed in the 1990s and 2000s by priority to increase access to health facilities leading to rapid increases in facility delivery, intervention coverage and access to emergency obstetric care, with large contribution from private facilities. A decentralised health system organisation, from communities to the central level, openness to private for-profit sector growth, and efficient financing allocation to maternal and newborn health enabled rapid progress. Other critical levers included poverty reduction, women empowerment, rural development, and culture of data generation and use. However, recent empirical data suggest a slowing down of mortality reductions. CONCLUSION: Bangladesh demonstrated effective multi-sectoral approach and persistent programming, testing and implementation to achieve rapid gains in maternal and neonatal mortality reduction. The slowing down of recent mortality trends suggests that the country will need to revise its strategies to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals. As fertility reached replacement level, further gains in maternal and neonatal mortality will require prioritising universal access to quality facility delivery, and addressing inequalities, including reaching the rural poor.

Learning from Ethiopia's success in reducing maternal and neonatal mortality through a health systems lens.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to enhance insights into the key characteristics of maternal and neonatal mortality declines in Ethiopia, conducted as part of a seven-country study on Maternal and Newborn Health (MNH) Exemplars. METHODS: We synthesised key indicators for 2000, 2010 and 2020 and contextualised those with typical country values in a global five-phase model for a maternal, stillbirth and neonatal mortality transition. We reviewed health system changes relevant to MNH over the period 2000-2020, focusing on governance, financing, workforce and infrastructure, and assessed trends in mortality, service coverage and systems by region. We analysed data from five national surveys, health facility assessments, global estimates and government databases and reports on health policies, infrastructure and workforce. RESULTS: Ethiopia progressed from the highest mortality phase to the third phase, accompanied by typical changes in terms of fertility decline and health system strengthening, especially health infrastructure and workforce. For health coverage and financing indicators, Ethiopia progressed but remained lower than typical in the transition model. Maternal and neonatal mortality declines and intervention coverage increases were greater after 2010 than during 2000-2010. Similar patterns were observed in most regions of Ethiopia, though regional gaps persisted for many indicators. Ethiopia's progress is characterised by a well-coordinated and government-led system prioritising first maternal and later neonatal health, resulting major increases in access to services by improving infrastructure and workforce from 2008, combined with widespread community actions to generate service demand. CONCLUSION: Ethiopia has achieved one of the fastest declines in mortality in sub-Saharan Africa, with major intervention coverage increases, especially from 2010. Starting from a weak health infrastructure and low coverage, Ethiopia's comprehensive approach provides valuable lessons for other low-income countries. Major increases towards universal coverage of interventions, including emergency care, are critical to further reduce mortality and advance the mortality transition.

Challenges in reducing maternal and neonatal mortality in Niger: an in-depth case study.

INTRODUCTION: Recent modelled estimates suggest that Niger made progress in maternal mortality since 2000. However, neonatal mortality has not declined since 2012 and maternal mortality estimates were based on limited data. We researched the drivers of progress and challenges. METHODS: We reviewed two decades of health policies, analysed mortality trends from United Nations data and six national household surveys between 1998 and 2021 and assessed coverage and inequalities of maternal and newborn health indicators. Quality of care was evaluated from health facility surveys in 2015 and 2019 and emergency obstetric assessments in 2011 and 2017. We determined the impact of intervention coverage on maternal and neonatal lives saved between 2000 and 2020. We interviewed 31 key informants to understand the factors underpinning policy implementation. RESULTS: Empirical maternal mortality ratio declined from 709 to 520 per 100 000 live births during 2000-2011, while neonatal mortality rate declined from 46 to 23 per 1000 live births during 2000-2012 then increased to 43 in 2018. Inequalities in neonatal mortality were reduced across socioeconomic and demographic strata. Key maternal and newborn health indicators improved over 2000-2012, except for caesarean sections, although the overall levels were low. Interventions delivered during childbirth saved most maternal and newborn lives. Progress came from health centre expansion, emergency care and the 2006 fee exemptions policy. During the past decade, challenges included expansion of emergency care, continued high fertility, security issues, financing and health workforce. Social determinants saw minimal change. CONCLUSIONS: Niger reduced maternal and neonatal mortality during 2000-2012, but progress has stalled. Further reductions require strategies targeting comprehensive care, referrals, quality of care, fertility reduction, social determinants and improved security nationwide.

Increased utilisation and quality: a focus on inequality and a learning health system approach-explaining Nepal's success in reducing maternal and newborn mortality 2000-2020.

INTRODUCTION: Maternal mortality in Nepal dropped from 553 to 186 per 100 000 live births during 2000-2017 (66% decline). Neonatal mortality dropped from 40 to 21 per 1000 live births during 2000-2018 (48% decline). Stillbirths dropped from 28 to 18 per 1000 births during 2000-2019 (34% decline). Nepal outperformed other countries in these mortality improvements when adjusted for economic growth, making Nepal a 'success'. Our study describes mechanisms which contributed to these achievements. METHODS: A mixed-method case study was used to identify drivers of mortality decline. Methods used included a literature review, key-informant interviews, focus-group discussions, secondary analysis of datasets, and validation workshops. RESULTS: Despite geographical challenges and periods of political instability, Nepal massively increased the percentage of women delivering in health facilities with skilled birth attendance between 2000 and 2019. Although challenges remain, there was also evidence in improved quality and equity-of-access to antenatal care and childbirth services. The study found policymaking and implementation processes were adaptive, evidence-informed, made use of data and research, and involved participants inside and outside government. There was a consistent focus on reducing inequalities. CONCLUSION: Policies and programmes Nepal implemented between 2000 and 2020 to improve maternal and newborn health outcomes were not unique. In this paper, we argue that Nepal was able to move rapidly from stage 2 to stage 3 in the mortality transition framework not because of what they did, but how they did it. Despite its achievements, Nepal still faces many challenges in ensuring equal access to quality-care for all women and newborns.

A tale of two exemplars: the maternal and newborn mortality transitions of two state clusters in India.

BACKGROUND: India's progress in reducing maternal and newborn mortality since the 1990s has been exemplary across diverse contexts. This paper examines progress in two state clusters: higher mortality states (HMS) with lower per capita income and lower mortality states (LMS) with higher per capita income. METHODS: We characterised state clusters' progress in five characteristics of a mortality transition model (mortality levels, causes, health intervention coverage/equity, fertility and socioeconomic development) and examined health policy and systems changes. We conducted quantitative trend analyses, and qualitative document review, interviews and discussions with national and state experts. RESULTS: Both clusters reduced maternal and neonatal mortality by over two-thirds and half respectively during 2000-2018. Neonatal deaths declined in HMS most on days 3-27, and in LMS on days 0-2. From 2005 to 2018, HMS improved coverage of antenatal care with contents (ANCq), institutional delivery and postnatal care (PNC) by over three-fold. In LMS, ANCq, institutional delivery and PNC rose by 1.4-fold. C-sections among the poorest increased from 1.5% to 7.1% in HMS and 5.6% to 19.4% in LMS.Fewer high-risk births (to mothers <18 or 36+ years, birth interval <2 years, birth order 3+) contributed 15% and 6% to neonatal mortality decline in HMS and LMS, respectively. Socioeconomic development improved in both clusters between 2005 and 2021; HMS saw more rapid increases than LMS in women's literacy (1.5-fold), household electricity (by 2-fold), improved sanitation (3.2-fold) and telephone access (6-fold).India's National (Rural) Health Mission's financial and administrative flexibility allowed states to tailor health system reforms. HMS expanded public health resources and financial schemes, while LMS further improved care at hospitals and among the poorest. CONCLUSION: Two state clusters in India progressed in different mortality transitions, with efforts to maximise coverage at increasingly advanced levels of healthcare, alongside socioeconomic improvements. The transition model characterises progress and guides further advances in maternal and newborn survival.

Approaching the SDG targets with sustained political commitment: drivers of the notable decline in maternal and neonatal mortality in Morocco.

BACKGROUND: Between 2000 and 2017/2018, Morocco reduced its maternal mortality ratio by 68% and its neonatal mortality rate by 52%-a higher improvement than other North African countries. We conducted the Exemplars in Maternal and Neonatal Health study to systematically and comprehensively research factors associated with this rapid reduction in mortality over the past two decades. METHODS: The study was conducted from September 2020 to December 2021 using mixed methods, including: literature, database and document reviews, quantitative analyses of national data sets and qualitative key-informant interviews at national and district levels. Analyses were based on a conceptual framework of drivers of health and survival of mothers and neonates. RESULTS: A favourable political and economic environment, and a high political commitment encouraged prioritisation of maternal and neonatal health (MNH) by aligning evidence-based policy and technical approaches. Five main factors accounted for Morocco's success: (1) continuous increases in antenatal care and institutional delivery and reductions socioeconomically-based inequalities in MNH service usage; (2) health-system strengthening by expanding the network of health facilities, with increased uptake of facility birthing, scale-up of the production of midwives, reductions in financial barriers and, later in the process, attention to improving the quality of care; (3) improved underlying health status of women and changes in reproductive patterns; (4) a supportive policy and infrastructure environment; and 5) increased education and autonomy of women. CONCLUSION: Our study provides evidence that supportive changes in Morocco's policy environment for maternal health, backed by greater political will and increased resources, significantly contributed to the dramatic progress in reducing maternal and neonatal mortality. While these efforts were successful in improving MNH in Morocco, several implementation challenges still require special attention and renewed political attention is needed.

Contribution of vaccination to improved survival and health: modelling 50 years of the Expanded Programme on Immunization.

BACKGROUND: WHO, as requested by its member states, launched the Expanded Programme on Immunization (EPI) in 1974 to make life-saving vaccines available to all globally. To mark the 50-year anniversary of EPI, we sought to quantify the public health impact of vaccination globally since the programme's inception. METHODS: In this modelling study, we used a suite of mathematical and statistical models to estimate the global and regional public health impact of 50 years of vaccination against 14 pathogens in EPI. For the modelled pathogens, we considered coverage of all routine and supplementary vaccines delivered since 1974 and estimated the mortality and morbidity averted for each age cohort relative to a hypothetical scenario of no historical vaccination. We then used these modelled outcomes to estimate the contribution of vaccination to globally declining infant and child mortality rates over this period. FINDINGS: Since 1974, vaccination has averted 154 million deaths, including 146 million among children younger than 5 years of whom 101 million were infants younger than 1 year. For every death averted, 66 years of full health were gained on average, translating to 10·2 billion years of full health gained. We estimate that vaccination has accounted for 40% of the observed decline in global infant mortality, 52% in the African region. In 2024, a child younger than 10 years is 40% more likely to survive to their next birthday relative to a hypothetical scenario of no historical vaccination. Increased survival probability is observed even well into late adulthood. INTERPRETATION: Since 1974 substantial gains in childhood survival have occurred in every global region. We estimate that EPI has provided the single greatest contribution to improved infant survival over the past 50 years. In the context of strengthening primary health care, our results show that equitable universal access to immunisation remains crucial to sustain health gains and continue to save future lives from preventable infectious mortality. FUNDING: WHO.

Eight years into the horizon of aspirational maternal and newborn health pledges: a nationwide cross-sectional exploration of the Burundian EmONC network capacity and budget deficits.

OBJECTIVE: The Burundian emergency obstetric and neonatal care (EmONC) programme, which was initiated in 2017 and supported by a specific policy, does not appear to reverse maternal and newborn mortality trends. Our study examined the capacity challenges facing participating EmONC facilities and developed alternative investment proposals to improve their readiness paying particular attention to EmONC professionals, physical infrastructure, and capital equipment. DESIGN: Cross-sectional study. SETTING: Burundian EmONC facilities (n=112). PARTICIPANTS: We examined EmONC policy documents, consulted 12 maternal and newborn health experts and 23 stakeholders and policymakers, surveyed all EmONC facilities (n=112), and collected cost data from the Ministry of Health and local suppliers in Burundi. We developed three context-specific EmONC resource benchmark standards by facility type; the Burundian policy norms and the expert minimum and maximum suggested thresholds; and used these alternatives to estimate EmONC resource gaps. We forecasted three corresponding budget estimates needed to address prevailing deficits taking a government perspective for a 5-year EmONC investment strategy. Additionally, we explored relationships between EmONC professionals and selected measures of service delivery using bivariate analyses and graphically. RESULTS: The lowest EmONC resource benchmark revealed that 95% of basic EmONC and all comprehensive EmONC facilities lack corresponding sets of human resources and 90% of all facilities need additional physical infrastructure and capital equipment. Assessed against the highest benchmark which proposes the most progressive set of standards for the prevailing workloads, Burundi would require 162 more medical doctors, 1005 midwives and nurses, 132 delivery rooms, 191 delivery tables, 678 and 156 maternity and newborn care beds, and 395 incubators amounting to US$32.9 million additional budget for 5 years. CONCLUSION: We demonstrated that Burundian EmONC facilities face enormous capacity challenges equivalent to US$32.9 million funding gap for 5 years; averagely approximating to 5.96% total health budget increase annually.

Estimating 1a0 and 4a1 in a Life Table: A Model Approach Based on Newly Collected Data.

The average age of infant deaths, a10, and the average number of years lived-in the age interval-by those dying between ages 1 and 5, a41, are important quantities allowing the construction of any life table including these ages. In many applications, the direct calculation of these parameters is not possible, so they are estimated using the infant mortality rate-or the death rate from 0 to 1-as a predictor. Existing methods are general approximations that do not consider the full variability in the age patterns of mortality below the age of 5. However, at the same level of mortality, under-five deaths can be more or less concentrated during the first weeks and months of life, thus resulting in very different values of a10 and a41. This article proposes an indirect estimation of these parameters by using a recently developed model of under-five mortality and taking advantage of a new, comprehensive database by detailed age-which is used for validation. The model adapts to a variety of inputs (e.g., rates, probabilities, or the proportion of deaths by sex or for both sexes combined), providing more flexibility for the users and increasing the precision of the estimates. This fresh perspective consolidates a new method that outperforms all previous approaches.

Income inequality as a determinant of neonatal mortality in the Americas during 2000-2019: implications for the attainment of Sustainable Development Goal target 3.2.

BACKGROUND: The work of the WHO Commission on the Social Determinants of Health has been fundamental to provide a conceptual framework of the social determinants of health. Based on this framework, this study assesses the relationship of income inequality as a determinant of neonatal mortality in the Americas and relates it to the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goal target 3.2 (reduce neonatal mortality to at least as low as 12 deaths per 1,000 live births). The rationale is to evaluate if income inequality may be considered a social factor that influences neonatal mortality in the Americas. METHODS: Yearly data from 35 countries in the Americas during 2000-2019 was collected. Data sources include the United Nations Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation for the neonatal mortality rate (measured as neonatal deaths per 1,000 live births) and the United Nations University World Institute for Development Economics Research for the Gini index (measured in a scale from 0 to 100). This is an ecological study that employs a linear regression model that relates the neonatal mortality rate (dependent variable) to the Gini index (independent variable), while controlling for other factors that influence neonatal mortality. Coefficient estimates and their robust standard errors were obtained using panel data techniques. RESULTS: A positive relationship between income inequality and neonatal mortality is found in countries in the Americas during the period studied. In particular, the analysis suggests that a unit increase in a country's Gini index during 2000-2019 is associated with a 0.27 (95% CI [- 0.04, 0.57], P =.09) increase in the neonatal mortality rate. CONCLUSION: The analysis suggests that income inequality may be positively associated with the neonatal mortality rate in the Americas. Nonetheless, given the modest magnitude of the estimates and Gini values and trends during 2000-2019, the findings suggest a potential limited scope for redistributive policies to support reductions in neonatal mortality in the region. Thus, policies and interventions that address higher coverage and quality of services provided by national health systems and reductions in socio-economic inequalities in health are of utmost importance.

Global health systems strengthening: FIGO's strategic view on reducing maternal and newborn mortality worldwide.

OBJECTIVE: To demonstrate that successful health systems strengthening (HSS) projects have addressed disparities and inequities in maternal and perinatal care in low-income countries. METHODS: A comprehensive literature review covered the period between 1980 and 2022, focusing on successful HSS interventions within health systems' seven core components that improved maternal and perinatal care. RESULTS: The findings highlight the importance of integrating quality interventions into robust health systems, as this has been shown to reduce maternal and newborn mortality. However, several challenges, including service delivery gaps, poor data use, and funding deficits, continue to hinder the delivery of quality care. To improve maternal and newborn health outcomes, a comprehensive HSS strategy is essential, which should include infrastructure enhancement, workforce skill development, access to essential medicines, and active community engagement. CONCLUSION: Effective health systems, leadership, and community engagement are crucial for a comprehensive HSS approach to catalyze progress toward universal health coverage and global improvements in maternal and newborn health.