Modeling the Effect of Herd Immunity and Contagiousness in Mitigating a Smallpox Outbreak.

The smallpox antiviral tecovirimat has recently been purchased by the U.S. Strategic National Stockpile. Given significant uncertainty regarding both the contagiousness of smallpox in a contemporary outbreak and the efficiency of a mass vaccination campaign, vaccine prophylaxis alone may be unable to control a smallpox outbreak following a bioterror attack. Here, we present the results of a compartmental epidemiological model that identifies conditions under which tecovirimat is required to curtail the epidemic by exploring how the interaction between contagiousness and prophylaxis coverage of the affected population affects the ability of the public health response to control a large-scale smallpox outbreak. Each parameter value in the model is based on published empirical data. We describe contagiousness parametrically using a novel method of distributing an assumed R-value over the disease course based on the relative rates of daily viral shedding from human and animal studies of cognate orthopoxvirus infections. Our results suggest that vaccination prophylaxis is sufficient to control the outbreak when caused either by a minimally contagious virus or when a very high percentage of the population receives prophylaxis. As vaccination coverage of the affected population decreases below 70%, vaccine prophylaxis alone is progressively less capable of controlling outbreaks, even those caused by a less contagious virus (R0 less than 4). In these scenarios, tecovirimat treatment is required to control the outbreak (total number of cases under an order of magnitude more than the number of initial infections). The first study to determine the relative importance of smallpox prophylaxis and treatment under a range of highly uncertain epidemiological parameters, this work provides public health decision-makers with an evidence-based guide for responding to a large-scale smallpox outbreak.

Tecovirimat, a p37 envelope protein inhibitor for the treatment of smallpox infection.

Since the eradication of naturally occurring smallpox in 1980, the fear that variola virus could be used as a biological weapon has become real. Over the last 10 years, emergency preparedness programs have been launched to protect populations against a smallpox outbreak or the possible emergence in humans of other orthopoxvirus infections, such as monkeypox. Vaccination against smallpox was responsible for its eradication, but was linked with high rates of adverse events and contraindications. In this context, intensive research in the poxvirus field has led to the development of safer vaccines and to an increase in the number of anti-poxvirus agents in the pipeline. SIGA Technologies Inc, under license from ViroPharma Inc, is developing tecovirimat (ST-246). Tecovirimat is a novel antiviral that inhibits the egress of orthopoxviruses by targeting viral p37 protein orthologs. The development of tecovirimat during the last 5 years for the treatment of smallpox and for its potential use as adjunct to smallpox vaccine is reviewed here.