Ocean warming undermines the recovery resilience of New England kelp forests following a fishery-induced trophic cascade.

Ecological theory predicts that kelp forests structured by trophic cascades should experience recovery and persistence of their foundation species when herbivores become rare. Yet, climate change may be altering the outcomes of top-down forcing in kelp forests, especially those located in regions that have rapidly warmed in recent decades, such as the Gulf of Maine. Here, using data collected annually from 30+ sites spanning >350 km of coastline, we explored the dynamics of Maine's kelp forests in the ~20 years after a fishery-induced elimination of sea urchin herbivores. Although forests (Saccharina latissima and Laminaria digitata) had broadly returned to Maine in the late 20th century, we found that forests in northeast Maine have since experienced slow but significant declines in kelp, and forest persistence in the northeast was juxtaposed by a rapid, widespread collapse in the southwest. Forests collapsed in the southwest apparently because ocean warming has-directly and indirectly-made this area inhospitable to kelp. Indeed, when modeling drivers of change using causal techniques from econometrics, we discovered that unusually high summer seawater temperatures the year prior, unusually high spring seawater temperatures, and high sea urchin densities each negatively impacted kelp abundance. Furthermore, the relative power and absolute impact of these drivers varied geographically. Our findings reveal that ocean warming is redefining the outcomes of top-down forcing in this system, whereby herbivore removal no longer predictably leads to a sustained dominance of foundational kelps but instead has led to a waning dominance (northeast) or the rise of a novel phase state defined by "turf" algae (southwest). Such findings indicate that limiting climate change and managing for low herbivore abundances will be essential for preventing further loss of the vast forests that still exist in northeast Maine. They also more broadly highlight that climate change is "rewriting the rules" of nature, and thus that ecological theory and practice must be revised to account for shifting species and processes.

Field Collection and Laboratory Maintenance of Canopy-Forming Giant Kelp to Facilitate Restoration.

Canopy-forming kelps are essential foundation species, supporting biodiversity and providing ecosystem services valued at more than USD$500 billion annually. The global decline of giant kelp forests due to climate-driven ecological stressors underscores the need for innovative restoration strategies. An emerging restoration technique known as 'green gravel' aims to seed young kelps over large areas without extensive underwater labor and represents a promising restoration tool due to cost-effectiveness and scalability. This video article illustrates a protocol and tools for culturing giant kelp, Macrocystis pyrifera. It also provides a resource for further studies to address the successes and limitations of this method in field settings. We outline field and laboratory-based methods for collecting reproductive tissue, sporulating, inoculating, rearing, maintaining, and monitoring substrates seeded with early life stages using the 'green gravel' technique. The protocol simplifies and centralizes current restoration practices in this field to support researchers, managers, and stakeholders in meeting kelp conservation objectives.

Morpho-physiological traits and tissue burdens of Ecklonia radiata linked to environmental variation in an urban estuary.

Organisms respond to their environment in various ways, including moving, adapting, acclimatising or a combination of responses. Within estuarine habitats, organisms are exposed to naturally variable environmental conditions. In urbanised estuaries, these natural variations can interact with human stressors such as habitat modification and pollution. Here, we investigated trait variation in the golden kelp Ecklonia radiata across an urban estuary - Sydney Harbour, Australia. We found that kelp morphology differed significantly between the more human-modified inner and the less modified outer harbour. Kelp individuals were smaller, had fewer laminae, and lacked spines in the inner harbour where it was warmer, more contaminated and less light was available. Inner harbour populations were characterised by lower tissue nitrogen and higher lead concentrations. These findings provide insights into how environmental variation could affect kelp morphology and physiology, and the high trait variation suggests adaptive capacity in E. radiata.

When species don't move together: Non-concurrent range shifts in Eastern Pacific kelp forest communities.

Species range shifts due to changing ocean conditions are occurring around the world. As species move, they build new interaction networks as they shift from or into new ecological communities. Typically, species ranges are modeled individually, but biotic interactions have been shown to be important to creating more realistic modeling outputs for species. To understand the importance of consumer interactions in Eastern Pacific kelp forest species distributions, we used a Maxent framework to model a key foundation species, giant kelp (Macrocystis pyrifera), and a dominant herbivore, purple sea urchins (Strongylocentrotus purpuratus). With neither species having previously been modeled in the Eastern Pacific, we found evidence for M. pyrifera expansion in the northern section of its range, with no projected contraction at the southern range edge. Despite its known co-occurrence with M. pyrifera, models of S. purpuratus showed a non-concurrent southern range contraction and a co-occurring northern range expansion. While the co-occurring shifts may lead to increased spatial competition for suitable substrate, this non-concurrent contraction could result in community wide impacts such as herbivore release, tropicalization, or ecosystem restructuring.

The effect of sedimentation on spore settlement and recruitment of the endemic Arctic kelp, Laminaria solidungula (Phaeophyceae).

Environmental changes associated with rapid climate change in the Arctic, such as the increased rates of sedimentation from climatic or anthropogenic sources, can enhance the impact of abiotic stressors on coastal ecosystems. High sedimentation rates can be detrimental to nearshore kelp abundance and distribution, possibly due to increased mortality at the spore settlement stage. Spore settlement and viability of the Arctic kelp Laminaria solidungula were examined through a series of lab-based sedimentation experiments. Spores were exposed to increasing sediment loads in three experimental designs simulating different sedimentation scenarios: sediment deposition above settled spores, settlement of spores on sediment-covered substrate, and simultaneous suspension of spores and sediments during settlement. Spore settlement was recorded upon completion of each experiment, and gametophyte abundance was assessed following a growth period with sediments removed to examine short-term spore viability via a gametophyte-to-settled-spore ratio. In all three types of sediment exposure, the addition of sediments caused a 30%-40% reduction in spore settlement relative to a no-sediment control. Spore settlement decreased significantly between the low and high sediment treatments when spores were settled onto sediment-covered substrates. In all experiments, increasing amounts of sediment had no significant effect on spore viability, indicating that spores that had settled under different short-term sediment conditions were viable. Our results indicate that depending on spore-sediment interaction type, higher rates of sedimentation resulting from increased sediment loading could affect L. solidungula spore settlement success with potential impacts on the long-term persistence of a diverse and productive benthic habitat.

Kelp holdfast microclimates buffer invertebrate inhabitants from extreme temperatures.

Climate change is altering environmental conditions, with microclimates providing small-scale refuges within otherwise challenging environments. Durvillaea (southern bull kelp; rimurapa) is a genus of large intertidal fucoid algae, and some species harbour diverse invertebrate communities in their holdfasts. We hypothesised that animal-excavated Durvillaea holdfasts provide a thermal refuge for epibiont species, and tested this hypothesis using the exemplar species D. poha. Using a southern Aotearoa New Zealand population as a case-study, we found extreme temperatures outside the holdfast were 4.4 °C higher in summer and 6.9 °C lower in winter than inside the holdfast. A microclimate model of the holdfasts was built and used to forecast microclimates under 2100 conditions. Temperatures are predicted to increase by 2-3 °C, which may exceed the tolerances of D. poha. However, if D. poha or a similar congeneric persists, temperatures inside holdfasts will remain less extreme than the external environment. The thermal tolerances of two Durvillaea-associated invertebrates, the trochid gastropod Cantharidus antipodum and the amphipod Parawaldeckia kidderi, were also assessed; C. antipodum, but not P. kidderi, displayed metabolic depression at temperatures above and below those inside holdfasts, suggesting that they would be vulnerable outside the holdfast and with future warming. Microclimates, such as those within D. poha holdfasts or holdfasts of similar species, will therefore be important refuges for the survival of species both at the northern (retreating edge) and southern (expanding edge) limits of their distributions.

Exploring indirect effects of a classic trophic cascade between urchins and kelp on zooplankton and whales.

Kelp forest trophic cascades have been extensively researched, yet indirect effects to the zooplankton prey base and gray whales have not been explored. We investigate the correlative patterns of a trophic cascade between bull kelp and purple sea urchins on gray whales and zooplankton in Oregon, USA. Using generalized additive models (GAMs), we assess (1) temporal dynamics of the four species across 8 years, and (2) possible trophic paths from urchins to kelp, kelp as habitat to zooplankton, and kelp and zooplankton to gray whales. Temporal GAMs revealed an increase in urchin coverage, with simultaneous decline in kelp condition, zooplankton abundance and gray whale foraging time. Trophic path GAMs, which tested for correlations between species, demonstrated that urchins and kelp were negatively correlated, while kelp and zooplankton were positively correlated. Gray whales showed nuanced and site-specific correlations with zooplankton in one site, and positive correlations with kelp condition in both sites. The negative correlation between the kelp-urchin trophic cascade and zooplankton resulted in a reduced prey base for gray whales. This research provides a new perspective on the vital role kelp forests may play across multiple trophic levels and interspecies linkages.

Syncopation and synchrony: Phenological dynamics of Pyropia nereocystis (Bangiophyceae) in central California.

Pyropia nereocystis is an annual northeastern Pacific-bladed bangialean species whose macroscopic stage epiphytized the annual canopy forming bull kelp Nereocystis luetkeana. I examined three in situ facets of these epiphyte-host dynamics in the central California region: (1) spatial and temporal variation in the presence of P. nereocystis epiphytes as a function of host density, (2) the relationship between individual host morphology and epiphytic P. nereocystis biomass, and (3) the ecophysiological growth ramifications for subtidal transplants of both life stages of P. nereocystis. Swath canopy surveys and whole host collections were conducted at five sites between November 2017 and February 2019. Additionally, transplants of P. nereocystis gametophytes and sporophytes were conducted across multiple subtidal depths. I observed temporal changes in the proportions of hosts epiphytized by P. nereocystis, with differences in seasonal persistence of P. nereocystis among sites and between years. Biomass of P. nereocystis was positively correlated with individual host stipe length, stipe surface area, and the primary principal component (PC) of stipe morphometrics denoted by principal component analysis (PCA). Gametogenesis in P. nereocystis epiphytes was spatially heterogeneous and limited for the 2018-2019 cohort due to comprehensive removal of hosts by the February 2019 sampling period. Transplants of P. nereocystis gametophytes yielded similar growth responses among depths, and sporophyte (conchocelis) transplant areal growth was positively correlated with transplant depth. These findings detail spatiotemporal complexity and multi-scale (individual, site, and whole region) phenological nuances for central Californian P. nereocystis epiphytes.

A marine heatwave changes the stabilizing effects of biodiversity in kelp forests.

Biodiversity can stabilize ecological communities through biological insurance, but climate and other environmental changes may disrupt this process via simultaneous ecosystem destabilization and biodiversity loss. While changes to diversity-stability relationships (DSRs) and the underlying mechanisms have been extensively explored in terrestrial plant communities, this topic remains largely unexplored in benthic marine ecosystems that comprise diverse assemblages of producers and consumers. By analyzing two decades of kelp forest biodiversity survey data, we discovered changes in diversity, stability, and their relationships at multiple scales (biological organizational levels, spatial scales, and functional groups) that were linked with the most severe marine heatwave ever documented in the North Pacific Ocean. Moreover, changes in the strength of DSRs during/after the heatwave were more apparent among functional groups than both biological organizational levels (population vs. ecosystem levels) and spatial scales (local vs. broad scales). Specifically, the strength of DSRs decreased for fishes, increased for mobile invertebrates and understory algae, and were unchanged for sessile invertebrates during/after the heatwave. Our findings suggest that biodiversity plays a key role in stabilizing marine ecosystems, but the resilience of DSRs to adverse climate impacts primarily depends on the functional identities of ecological communities.

Effect of marine heatwaves and warming on kelp microbiota influence trophic interactions.

The range-expansion of tropical herbivores due to ocean warming can profoundly alter temperate reef communities by overgrazing the seaweed forests that underpin them. Such ecological interactions may be mediated by changes to seaweed-associated microbiota in response to warming, but empirical evidence demonstrating this is rare. We experimentally simulated ocean warming and marine heatwaves (MHWs) to quantify effects on two dominant temperate seaweed species and their microbiota, as well as grazing by a tropical herbivore. The kelp Ecklonia radiata's microbiota in sustained warming and MHW treatments was enriched with microorganisms associated with seaweed disease and tissue degradation. In contrast, the fucoid Sargassum linearifolium's microbiota was unaffected by temperature. Consumption by the tropical sea-urchin Tripneustes gratilla was greater on Ecklonia where the microbiota had been altered by higher temperatures, while Sargassum's consumption was unaffected. Elemental traits (carbon, nitrogen), chemical defences (phenolics) and tissue bleaching of both seaweeds were generally unaffected by temperature. Effects of warming and MHWs on seaweed holobionts (host plus its microbiota) are likely species-specific. The effect of increased temperature on Ecklonia's microbiota and subsequent increased consumption suggest that changes to kelp microbiota may underpin kelp-herbivore interactions, providing novel insights into potential mechanisms driving change in species' interactions in warming oceans.

Spatiotemporal variability in population demography and morphology of the habitat-forming macroalga Saccorhiza polyschides in the Western English Channel.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Large brown macroalgae serve as foundation organisms along temperate and polar coastlines, providing a range of ecosystem services. Saccorhiza polyschides is a warm-temperate kelp-like species found in the northeast Atlantic, which is suggested to have proliferated in recent decades across the southern UK, possibly in response to increasing temperatures, physical disturbance and reduced competition. However, little is known about S. polyschides with regard to ecological functioning and population dynamics across its geographical range. Here we examined the population demography of S. polyschides populations in southwest UK, located within the species' range centre, to address a regional knowledge gap and to provide a baseline against which to detect future changes. METHODS: Intertidal surveys were conducted during spring low tides at three sites along a gradient of wave exposure in Plymouth Sound (Western English Channel) over a period of 15 months. Density, cover, age, biomass and morphology of S. polyschides were quantified. Additionally, less frequent sampling of shallow subtidal reefs was conducted to compare intertidal and subtidal populations. KEY RESULTS: We recorded pronounced seasonality, with fairly consistent demographic patterns across sites and depths. By late summer, S. polyschides was a dominant habitat-former on both intertidal and subtidal reefs, with maximum standing stock exceeding 13 000 g wet weight m-2. CONCLUSIONS: Saccorhiza polyschides is a conspicuous and abundant member of rocky reef assemblages in the region, providing complex and abundant biogenic habitat for associated organisms and high rates of primary productivity. However, its short-lived pseudo-annual life strategy is in stark contrast to dominant long-lived perennial laminarian kelps. As such, any replacement or reconfiguration of habitat-forming macroalgae due to ocean warming will probably have implications for local biodiversity and community composition. More broadly, our study demonstrates the importance of high-resolution cross-habitat surveys to generate robust baselines of kelp population demography, against which the ecological impacts of climate change and other stressors can be reliably detected.

Multiscale stability of an intertidal kelp (Postelsia palmaeformis) near its northern range edge through a period of prolonged heatwaves.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Climate change, including gradual changes and extreme weather events, is driving widespread species losses and range shifts. These climatic changes are felt acutely in intertidal ecosystems, where many organisms live close to their thermal limits and experience the extremes of both marine and terrestrial environments. A recent series of multiyear heatwaves in the northeast Pacific Ocean might have impacted species even towards their cooler, northern range edges. Among them, the high intertidal kelp Postelsia palmaeformis has traits that could make it particularly vulnerable to climate change, but it is critically understudied. METHODS: In 2021 and 2022, we replicated in situ and aerial P. palmaeformis surveys that were conducted originally in 2006 and 2007, in order to assess the state of northern populations following recent heatwaves. Changes in P. palmaeformis distribution, extent, density and morphometrics were assessed between these two time points over three spatial scales, ranging from 250 m grid cells across the entire 167 km study region, to within grid cells and the individual patch. KEY RESULTS: We found evidence consistent with population stability at all three scales: P. palmaeformis remained present in all 250 m grid cells in the study region where it was previously found, and neither the extent within cells nor the patch density changed significantly between time points. However, there was evidence of slight distributional expansion, increased blade lengths and a shift to earlier reproductive timing. CONCLUSIONS: We suggest that apparent long-term stability of P. palmaeformis might be attributable to thermal buffering near its northern range edge and from the wave-exposed coastlines it inhabits, which may have decreased the impacts of heatwaves. Our results highlight the importance of multiscale assessments when examining changes within species and populations, in addition to the importance of dispersal capability and local conditions in regulating the responses of species to climate change.

Variation in body size drives spatial and temporal variation in lobster-urchin interaction strength.

How strongly predators and prey interact is both notoriously context dependent and difficult to measure. Yet across taxa, interaction strength is strongly related to predator size, prey size and prey density, suggesting that general cross-taxonomic relationships could be used to predict how strongly individual species interact. Here, we ask how accurately do general size-scaling relationships predict variation in interaction strength between specific species that vary in size and density across space and time? To address this question, we quantified the size and density dependence of the functional response of the California spiny lobster Panulirus interruptus, foraging on a key ecosystem engineer, the purple sea urchin Strongylocentrotus purpuratus, in experimental mesocosms. Based on these results, we then estimated variation in lobster-urchin interaction strength across five sites and 9 years of observational data. Finally, we compared our experimental estimates to predictions based on general size-scaling relationships from the literature. Our results reveal that predator and prey body size has the greatest effect on interaction strength when prey abundance is high. Due to consistently high urchin densities in the field, our simulations suggest that body size-relative to density-accounted for up to 87% of the spatio-temporal variation in interaction strength. However, general size-scaling relationships failed to predict the magnitude of interactions between lobster and urchin; even the best prediction from the literature was, on average, an order of magnitude (+18.7×) different than our experimental predictions. Harvest and climate change are driving reductions in the average body size of many marine species. Anticipating how reductions in body size will alter species interactions is critical to managing marine systems in an ecosystem context. Our results highlight the extent to which differences in size-frequency distributions can drive dramatic variation in the strength of interactions across narrow spatial and temporal scales. Furthermore, our work suggests that species-specific estimates for the scaling of interaction strength with body size, rather than general size-scaling relationships, are necessary to quantitatively predict how reductions in body size will alter interaction strengths.

Kelpwatch: A new visualization and analysis tool to explore kelp canopy dynamics reveals variable response to and recovery from marine heatwaves.

Giant kelp and bull kelp forests are increasingly at risk from marine heatwave events, herbivore outbreaks, and the loss or alterations in the behavior of key herbivore predators. The dynamic floating canopy of these kelps is well-suited to study via satellite imagery, which provides high temporal and spatial resolution data of floating kelp canopy across the western United States and Mexico. However, the size and complexity of the satellite image dataset has made ecological analysis difficult for scientists and managers. To increase accessibility of this rich dataset, we created Kelpwatch, a web-based visualization and analysis tool. This tool allows researchers and managers to quantify kelp forest change in response to disturbances, assess historical trends, and allow for effective and actionable kelp forest management. Here, we demonstrate how Kelpwatch can be used to analyze long-term trends in kelp canopy across regions, quantify spatial variability in the response to and recovery from the 2014 to 2016 marine heatwave events, and provide a local analysis of kelp canopy status around the Monterey Peninsula, California. We found that 18.6% of regional sites displayed a significant trend in kelp canopy area over the past 38 years and that there was a latitudinal response to heatwave events for each kelp species. The recovery from heatwave events was more variable across space, with some local areas like Bahía Tortugas in Baja California Sur showing high recovery while kelp canopies around the Monterey Peninsula continued a slow decline and patchy recovery compared to the rest of the Central California region. Kelpwatch provides near real time spatial data and analysis support and makes complex earth observation data actionable for scientists and managers, which can help identify areas for research, monitoring, and management efforts.

On the ecology of Cystophora spp. forests.

Cystophora is the second largest genus of fucoids worldwide and, like many other forest-forming macroalgae, is increasingly threatened by a range of anthropogenic impacts including ocean warming. Yet, limited ecological information is available from the warm portion of their range (SW Western Australia), where severe range contractions are predicted to occur. Here, we provide the first insights on the abundance, diversity, productivity, and stand structure of Cystophora forests in this region. Forests were ubiquitous over more than 800 km of coastline and dominated sheltered and moderately-exposed reefs. Stand biomass and productivity were similar or greater than that of kelp forests in the temperate reef communities examined, suggesting that Cystophora spp. play a similarly important ecological role. The stand structure of Cystophora forests was, however, different than those of kelp forests, with most stands featuring an abundant bank of sub-canopy juveniles and only a few plants forming the canopy layer. Stand productivity followed an opposite seasonal pattern than that of kelps, with maximal growth in late autumn through early winter and net biomass loss in summer. Annually, stands contributed between 2.2 and 5.7 kg · m-2 (fresh biomass) to reef productivity depending on the dominant stand species. We propose that Cystophora forests play an important and unique role in supporting subtidal temperate diversity and productivity throughout temperate Australia, and urge a better understanding of their ecology and responses to anthropogenic threats.

Southern Hemisphere coasts are biologically connected by frequent, long-distance rafting events.

Globally, species distributions are shifting in response to environmental change,1 and those that cannot disperse risk extinction.2 Many taxa, including marine species, are showing poleward range shifts as the climate warms.3 In the Southern Hemisphere, however, circumpolar oceanic fronts can present barriers to dispersal.4 Although passive, southward movement of species across this barrier has been considered unlikely,5,6 the recent discovery of buoyant kelp rafts on beaches in Antarctica7,8 demonstrates that such journeys are possible. Rafting is a key process by which diverse taxa-including terrestrial, e.g., Lindo,9 Godinot,10 and Censky et al.,11 and marine, e.g., Carlton et al.12 and Gillespie et al.13 species-can cross oceans.14 Kelp rafts can carry passengers7,15-17 and thus can act as vectors for long-distance dispersal of coastal organisms. The small numbers of kelp rafts previously found in Antarctica7,8 do not, however, shed much light on the frequency of such dispersal events.18 We use a combination of high-resolution phylogenomic analyses (>220,000 SNPs) and oceanographic modeling to show that long-distance biological dispersal events in Southern Ocean are not rare. We document tens of kelp (Durvillaea antarctica) rafting events of thousands of kilometers each, over several decades (1950-2019), with many kelp rafts apparently still reproductively viable. Modeling of dispersal trajectories from genomically inferred source locations shows that distant landmasses are well connected, for example South Georgia and New Zealand, and the Kerguelen Islands and Tasmania. Our findings illustrate the power of genomic approaches to track, and modeling to show frequencies of, long-distance dispersal events.

Microclimate predicts kelp forest extinction in the face of direct and indirect marine heatwave effects.

Marine heatwaves threaten the persistence of kelp forests globally. However, the observed responses of kelp forests to these events have been highly variable on local scales. Here, we synthesize distribution data from an environmentally diverse region to examine spatial patterns of canopy kelp persistence through an unprecedented marine heatwave. We show that, although often overlooked, temperature variation occurring at fine spatial scales (i.e., a few kilometers or less) can be a critical driver of kelp forest persistence during these events. Specifically, though kelp forests nearly all persisted toward the cool outer coast, inshore areas were >3°C warmer at the surface and experienced extensive kelp loss. Although temperatures remained cool at depths below the thermocline, kelp persistence in these thermal refugia was strongly constrained by biotic interactions, specifically urchin populations that increased during the heatwave and drove transitions to urchin barrens in deeper rocky habitat. Urchins were, however, largely absent from mixed sand and cobble benthos, leading to an unexpected association between bottom substrate and kelp forest persistence at inshore sites with warm surface waters. Our findings demonstrate both that warm microclimates increase the risk of habitat loss during marine heatwaves and that biotic interactions modified by these events will modulate the capacity of cool microclimates to serve as thermal refugia.

Global kelp forest restoration: past lessons, present status, and future directions.

Kelp forest ecosystems and their associated ecosystem services are declining around the world. In response, marine managers are working to restore and counteract these declines. Kelp restoration first started in the 1700s in Japan and since then has spread across the globe. Restoration efforts, however, have been largely disconnected, with varying methodologies trialled by different actors in different countries. Moreover, a small subset of these efforts are 'afforestation', which focuses on creating new kelp habitat, as opposed to restoring kelp where it previously existed. To distil lessons learned over the last 300 years of kelp restoration, we review the history of kelp restoration (including afforestation) around the world and synthesise the results of 259 documented restoration attempts spanning from 1957 to 2020, across 16 countries, five languages, and multiple user groups. Our results show that kelp restoration projects have increased in frequency, have employed 10 different methodologies and targeted 17 different kelp genera. Of these projects, the majority have been led by academics (62%), have been conducted at sizes of less than 1 ha (80%) and took place over time spans of less than 2 years. We show that projects are most successful when they are located near existing kelp forests. Further, disturbance events such as sea-urchin grazing are identified as regular causes of project failure. Costs for restoration are historically high, averaging hundreds of thousands of dollars per hectare, therefore we explore avenues to reduce these costs and suggest financial and legal pathways for scaling up future restoration efforts. One key suggestion is the creation of a living database which serves as a platform for recording restoration projects, showcasing and/or re-analysing existing data, and providing updated information. Our work establishes the groundwork to provide adaptive and relevant recommendations on best practices for kelp restoration projects today and into the future.

Persistence of seaweed forests in the anthropocene will depend on warming and marine heatwave profiles.

Marine heatwaves (MHWs), discrete periods of extreme warm water temperatures superimposed onto persistent ocean warming, have increased in frequency and significantly disrupted marine ecosystems. While field observations on the ecological consequences of MHWs are growing, a mechanistic understanding of their direct effects is rare. We conducted an outdoor tank experiment testing how different thermal stressor profiles impacted the ecophysiological performance of three dominant forest-forming seaweeds. Four thermal scenarios were tested: contemporary summer temperature (22°C), low persistent warming (24°C), a discrete MHW (22-27°C), and temperature variability followed by a MHW (22-24°C, 22-27°C). The physiological performance of seaweeds was strongly related to thermal profile and varied among species, with the highest temperature not always having the strongest effect. MHWs were highly detrimental for the fucoid Phyllospora comosa, whereas the laminarian kelp Ecklonia radiata showed sensitivity to extended thermal stress and demonstrated a cumulative temperature threshold. The fucoid Sargassum linearifolium showed resilience, albeit with signs of decline with bleached and degraded fronds, under all conditions, with stronger decline under stable control and warming conditions. The varying responses of these three co-occurring forest-forming seaweeds under different temperature scenarios suggests that the impact of ocean warming on near shore ecosystems may be complex and will depend on the specific thermal profile of rising water temperatures relative to the vulnerability of different species.

Forecasting ocean acidification impacts on kelp forest ecosystems.

Ocean acidification is one the biggest threats to marine ecosystems worldwide, but its ecosystem wide responses are still poorly understood. This study integrates field and experimental data into a mass balance food web model of a temperate coastal ecosystem to determine the impacts of specific OA forcing mechanisms as well as how they interact with one another. Specifically, we forced a food web model of a kelp forest ecosystem near its southern distribution limit in the California large marine ecosystem to a 0.5 pH drop over the course of 50 years. This study utilizes a modeling approach to determine the impacts of specific OA forcing mechanisms as well as how they interact. Isolating OA impacts on growth (Production), mortality (Other Mortality), and predation interactions (Vulnerability) or combining all three mechanisms together leads to a variety of ecosystem responses, with some taxa increasing in abundance and other decreasing. Results suggest that carbonate mineralizing groups such as coralline algae, abalone, snails, and lobsters display the largest decreases in biomass while macroalgae, urchins, and some larger fish species display the largest increases. Low trophic level groups such as giant kelp and brown algae increase in biomass by 16% and 71%, respectively. Due to the diverse way in which OA stress manifests at both individual and population levels, ecosystem-level effects can vary and display nonlinear patterns. Combined OA forcing leads to initial increases in ecosystem and commercial biomasses followed by a decrease in commercial biomass below initial values over time, while ecosystem biomass remains high. Both biodiversity and average trophic level decrease over time. These projections indicate that the kelp forest community would maintain high productivity with a 0.5 drop in pH, but with a substantially different community structure characterized by lower biodiversity and relatively greater dominance by lower trophic level organisms.