Burden of recreational water illness due to exposure to cyanobacteria and their toxins in freshwater beaches in Canada: protocol of a prospective cohort study.

INTRODUCTION: Cyanobacterial blooms are increasingly common in freshwater sources used for swimming and other recreational water contact activities in Canada. Many species of cyanobacteria can produce toxins that affect human and animal health, but there are limited data on the risk of illness associated with water contact at impacted beaches. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This study will investigate the incidence of recreational water illness due to exposure to cyanobacterial blooms and their toxins in four targeted and popular freshwater beaches in Ontario, Manitoba and Nova Scotia, Canada. A prospective cohort design and One Health approach will be used. On-site recruitment of recreational water users will be conducted at two beaches per year during the summers of 2024 and 2025. The population of interest includes recreational water users of any age and their pet dogs. After enrolment, an in-person survey will determine beach exposures and confounding factors, and a 3-day follow-up survey will ascertain any acute illness outcomes experienced by participants or their dogs. The target sample size is 2500 recreational water users. Water samples will be taken each recruitment day and analysed for cyanobacterial indicators (pigments), cell counts and toxin levels. Bayesian regression analysis will be conducted to estimate the association with water contact, cyanobacterial levels and risks of different acute illness outcomes. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This study has been approved by the Toronto Metropolitan University Research Ethics Board (REB 2023-461). Study results will be published in a peer-reviewed journal and as infographics on a project website.

FRAX predicts cardiovascular risk in women undergoing osteoporosis screening: the Manitoba bone mineral density registry.

Osteoporosis and cardiovascular disease (CVD) are highly prevalent in older women, with increasing evidence for shared risk factors and pathogenesis. Although FRAX was developed for the assessment of fracture risk, we hypothesized that it might also provide information on CVD risk. To test the ability of the FRAX tool and FRAX-defined risk factors to predict incident CVD in women undergoing osteoporosis screening with DXA, we performed a retrospective prognostic cohort study which included women aged 50 yr or older with a baseline DXA scan in the Manitoba Bone Mineral Density Registry between March 31, 1999 and March 31, 2018. FRAX scores for major osteoporotic fracture (MOF) were calculated on all participants. Incident MOF and major adverse CV events (MACE; hospitalized acute myocardial infarction [AMI], hospitalized non-hemorrhagic cerebrovascular disease [CVA], or all-cause death) were ascertained from linkage to population-based healthcare data. The study population comprised 59 696 women (mean age 65.7 ± 9.4 yr). Over mean 8.7 yr of observation, 6021 (10.1%) had MOF, 12 277 women (20.6%) had MACE, 2274 (3.8%) had AMI, 2061 (3.5%) had CVA, and 10 253 (17.2%) died. MACE rates per 1000 person-years by FRAX risk categories low (10-yr predicted MOF <10%), moderate (10%-19.9%) and high (≥20%) were 13.5, 34.0, and 64.6, respectively. Although weaker than the association with incident MOF, increasing FRAX quintile was associated with increasing risk for MACE (all P-trend <.001), even after excluding prior CVD and adjusting for age. HR for MACE per SD increase in FRAX was 1.99 (95%CI, 1.96-2.02). All FRAX-defined risk factors (except parental hip fracture and lower BMI) were independently associated with higher non-death CV events. Although FRAX is intended for fracture risk prediction, it has predictive value for cardiovascular risk.

Ovarian Cancer in the Older Manitoban Population-Treatment Tolerance and Cancer-Related Outcomes: A Manitoba Ovarian Cancer Outcomes (MOCO) Group Study.

BACKGROUND: In Canada, individuals with gynecologic reproductive organs (ovaries, fallopian tubes, uterus) over the age of 70 comprise a large proportion of epithelial ovarian cancer patients. These patients often have co-morbidities, polypharmacy, or decreased functional status that may impact treatment initiation and tolerance. Despite this, there is limited evidence to guide treatment for older patients diagnosed with ovarian epithelial carcinoma. METHODS: This is a retrospective study with data from Manitoba, Canada. The data were obtained from the Manitoba Ovarian Cancer Database, the Manitoba Cancer Registry, and electronic health records. All individuals with epithelial ovarian, fallopian tube, or peritoneal cancer diagnosed between 2009 and 2018 were identified. Patients aged > 70 at the time of diagnosis were included in the study cohort. RESULTS: Four hundred and forty individuals were included. The majority had advanced stage disease (56%). Moreover, 59% of patients received no chemotherapy. Of the patients who received chemotherapy, 20% received <2 cycles and 21% required a dose reduction due to toxicity. Univariable and multivariable analysis identified advanced stage (p < 0.001), treatment modality (p < 0.001), and advanced age at diagnosis (p < 0.001) with poorer overall survival. CONCLUSIONS: Our study demonstrated a high rate of chemotherapy dose reduction and discontinuation in the elderly epithelial ovarian cancer population. Further research is needed to identify risk factors for treatment discontinuation and intolerance in this population.

A population-based, province-wide, record-linkage interrupted time series analysis of impact of the universal seasonal influenza vaccination policy on seasonal influenza vaccine uptake among 5-64-year-olds in the province of Manitoba, Canada.

INTRODUCTION: Universal seasonal influenza vaccination policy (USIVP) was introduced in Manitoba, Canada in 2010. Its impact on seasonal influenza vaccine (SIV) uptake remains underexplored. METHODS: We used population-wide data from Manitoba to assess the impact of the USIVP on SIV uptake. The study covered twenty influenza seasons (2000/01-2019/20). We summarized SIV uptake for influenza seasons before and after the USIVP. Utilizing a single-group interrupted time series analysis and appropriately accounting for autocorrelation, we estimated absolute change and annual trend in SIV uptake percentages among 5-17-, 18-44-, and 45-64-year-olds across strata of certain population socioeconomic and health-related characteristics following the USIVP. RESULTS: Average SIV uptake percentage in all age groups was significantly higher after compared with before the USIVP. Following the USIVP, there was no significant absolute change in SIV uptake percentage among 18-44- and 45-64-year-olds overall; however, a significant decrease was observed among 18-44-year-old males in the higher income quintiles, across healthcare utilization, and in some regions of residence. A significant increase was observed among 5-17-year-olds in the lowest income quintiles, in Northern Manitoba, and among those with less healthcare utilization, and no chronic disease. Overall, there was mostly no significant annual trend in SIV uptake percentage among 18-44-year-olds, and while a significant upward and downward trend was observed among 5-17-year-olds and 45-64-year-olds, respectively, a significant downward trend was observed across all strata of population characteristics within all age groups in Northern Manitoba. CONCLUSIONS: The USIVP in Manitoba was followed by an absolute increase in SIV uptake percentage only in some socioeconomically disadvantaged subpopulations among 5-17-year-olds. While there was mostly an upward annual trend in SIV uptake percentage among 5-17-year-olds, a downward trend was observed among 45-64-year-olds and across all age groups and subpopulations in socioeconomically disadvantaged Northern Manitoba. These findings are novel for Manitoba and require investigation and public health attention.

COVID-19 diagnostic testing and vaccinations among First Nations in Manitoba: A nations-based retrospective cohort study using linked administrative data, 2020-2021.

BACKGROUND: Differential access to healthcare has contributed to a higher burden of illness and mortality among First Nations compared to other people in Canada. Throughout the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, First Nations organizations in Manitoba partnered with public health and Manitoba government officials to ensure First Nations had early, equitable and culturally safe access to COVID-19 diagnostic testing and vaccination. In this study, we examined whether prioritizing First Nations for vaccination was associated with faster uptake of COVID-19 vaccines among First Nations versus All Other Manitobans (AOM). METHODS AND FINDINGS: In this retrospective cohort study, we used linked, whole-population administrative data from the Manitoba healthcare system (February 2020 to December 2021) to determine rates of COVID-19 diagnostic testing, infection, and vaccination, and used adjusted restricted mean survival time (RMST) models to test whether First Nations received their first and second vaccine doses more quickly than other Manitobans. The cohort comprised 114,816 First Nations (50.6% female) and 1,262,760 AOM (50.1% female). First Nations were younger (72.3% were age 0 to 39 years) compared to AOM (51% were age 0 to 39 years) and were overrepresented in the lowest 2 income quintiles (81.6% versus 35.6% for AOM). The 2 groups had a similar burden of comorbidities (65.8% of First Nations had none and 6.3% had 3 or more; 65.9% of AOM had none and 6.0% had 3 or more) and existing mental disorders (36.9% of First Nations were diagnosed with a mood/anxiety disorder, psychosis, personality disorder, or substance use disorder versus 35.2% of AOM). First Nations had crude infection rates of up to 17.20 (95% CI 17.15 to 17.24) COVID-19 infections/1,000 person-months compared with up to 6.24 (95% CI 6.16 to 6.32) infections/1,000 person-months among AOM. First Nations had crude diagnostic testing rates of up to 103.19 (95% CI 103.06 to 103.32) diagnostic COVID-19 tests/1,000 person-months compared with up to 61.52 (95% CI 61.47 to 61.57) tests/1,000 person-months among AOM. Prioritizing First Nations to receive vaccines was associated with faster vaccine uptake among First Nations versus other Manitobans. After adjusting for age, sex, income, region of residence, mental health conditions, and comorbidities, we found that First Nations residents received their first vaccine dose an average of 15.5 (95% CI 14.9 to 16.0) days sooner and their second dose 13.9 (95% CI 13.3 to 14.5) days sooner than other Manitobans in the same age group. The study was limited by the discontinuation of population-based COVID-19 testing and data collection in December 2021. As well, it would have been valuable to have contextual data on potential barriers to COVID-19 testing or vaccination, including, for example, information on social and structural barriers faced by Indigenous and other racialized people, or the distrust Indigenous people may have in governments due to historical harms. CONCLUSION: In this study, we observed that the partnered COVID-19 response between First Nations and the Manitoba government, which oversaw creation and enactment of policies prioritizing First Nations for vaccines, was associated with vaccine acceptance and quick uptake among First Nations. This approach may serve as a useful framework for future public health efforts in Manitoba and other jurisdictions across Canada.

Ultra-Processed Food, Disease Activity, and Inflammation in Ulcerative Colitis: The Manitoba Living With IBD Study.

INTRODUCTION: The purpose of this study was to investigate the relationship between ultra-processed food (UPF) consumption and (i) symptomatic disease and (ii) intestinal inflammation among adults with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). METHODS: We identified participants (Crohn's disease [CD] and ulcerative colitis [UC]) from the Manitoba Living with IBD study. Active disease was defined using the IBD Symptom Inventory (score >14 for CD; >13 for UC); fecal calprotectin was measured for intestinal inflammation (>250 µg/g). Diet data were collected using the Harvard Food Frequency Questionnaire. UPF consumption was determined by the NOVA classification system. Percentage of energy consumption from UPFs was calculated and divided into 3 tertiles (T1 = low; T3 = high). Multiple linear regression analysis was used for active disease and inflammation predicted by UPF consumption. RESULTS: Among 135 participants (65% with CD), mean number of episodes of active disease (14.2 vs 6.21) and active inflammation (1.6 vs 0.6) was significantly higher among participants with UC in T3 compared with T1 of UPF consumption ( P < 0.05). When adjusting for age, sex, disease type, and duration, number of episodes of active disease was lower in T1 compared with T3 (ß = -7.11, P = 0.02); similarly, number of episodes of intestinal inflammation was lower in T1 (ß = -0.95, P = 0.03). No significant differences were observed among participants with CD. DISCUSSION: UPF consumption may be a predictor of active symptomatic disease and inflammation among participants with UC. Reducing UPF consumption is a dietary strategy that can be suggested for minimizing symptoms and inflammation among people living with IBD.

The Mental Health of First Nations Children in Manitoba: A Population-Based Retrospective Cohort Study Using Linked Administrative Data: La santé mentale des enfants des Premières Nations au Manitoba : une étude de cohorte rétrospective dans la population, à l'aide de données administratives liées.

OBJECTIVE: First Nations children face a greater risk of experiencing mental disorders than other children from the general population because of family and societal factors, yet there is little research examining their mental health. This study compares diagnosed mental disorders and suicidal behaviours of First Nations children living on-reserve and off-reserve to all other children living in Manitoba. METHOD: The research team, which included First Nations and non-First Nations researchers, utilized population-based administrative data that linked de-identified individual-level records from the 2016 First Nations Research File to health and social information for children living in Manitoba. Adjusted rates and rate ratios of mental disorders and suicide behaviours were calculated using a generalized linear modelling approach to compare First Nations children (n = 40,574) and all other children (n = 197,109) and comparing First Nations children living on- and off-reserve. RESULTS: Compared with all other children, First Nations children had a higher prevalence of schizophrenia (adjusted rate ratio (aRR): 4.42, 95% confidence interval (CI), 3.36 to 5.82), attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD; aRR: 1.21, 95% CI, 1.09 to 1.33), substance use disorders (aRR: 5.19; 95% CI, 4.25 to 6.33), hospitalizations for suicide attempts (aRR: 6.96; 95% CI, 4.36 to 11.13) and suicide deaths (aRR: 10.63; 95% CI, 7.08 to 15.95). The prevalence of ADHD and mood/anxiety disorders was significantly higher for First Nations children living off-reserve compared with on-reserve; in contrast, hospitalization rates for suicide attempts were twice as high on-reserve than off-reserve. When the comparison cohort was restricted to only other children in low-income areas, a higher prevalence of almost all disorders remained for First Nations children. CONCLUSION: Large disparities were found in mental health indicators between First Nations children and other children in Manitoba, demonstrating that considerable work is required to improve the mental well-being of First Nations children. Equitable access to culturally safe services is urgently needed and these services should be self-determined, planned, and implemented by First Nations people.

Carpal tunnel syndrome among Manitoba workers: Results from the Manitoba Occupational Disease Surveillance System.

BACKGROUND: Carpal tunnel syndrome (CTS) is associated with occupational high-force repetitive tasks and vibration. This project examines the relationship between CTS and work to: (1) identify jobs and industries with increased CTS risk; (2) explore whether there is a sex difference in the risk of CTS after controlling for occupation; and (3) determine whether any observed relationships persist after excluding Workers Compensation Board (WCB) accepted time-loss CTS claims. METHODS: We linked 95.5% of time-loss WCB claims from 2006 to 2019 to provincial administrative health data. The cohort included 143,001 unique person-occupation combinations. CTS cases were defined as at least two medical claims for (ICD-9 354) within a 12-month period or a surgical claim for CTS from 2 years before the WCB claim to 3 years after. WCB accepted CTS time-loss claims not identified by the medical claims were also included. RESULTS: A total of 4302 individuals (3.0%) met the CTS definition. Analysis revealed that the hazard ratios (HRs) of CTS vary considerably with occupation. Sex-based differences in CTS risks were observed, both in low- and high-risk occupations. In many occupations with increased HR, the HR remained elevated after excluding accepted time-loss WCB cases. CONCLUSIONS: The risk of developing CTS varied with occupation. Job titles with ergonomic risk factors had higher risks than those with lower exposures. This finding remained after eliminating time-loss compensated WCB cases, suggesting that all cases of CTS in high risk jobs are not identified in WCB statistics. Female workers in some job titles had excess CTS cases compared to male workers within the same job title.

Incidence and prevalence of type 2 diabetes in Manitoba children 2009-10 to 2017-18: First Nation versus all other Manitobans.

AIM: To describe the incidence and prevalence of type 2 diabetes in children in Manitoba over a ten-year period. METHODS: Population-based, provincial databases were linked to calculate the incidence and prevalence of type 2 diabetes in children < 18 years of age in Manitoba from 2009-10 to 2017-18. First Nation and all other Manitoban children are described separately. RESULTS: The incidence of type 2 diabetes increased from 16.0/100,000/year in 2009-10 to 31‧1/100,000/year in 2017-18 (p < 0.001). For First Nation children, the incidence increased from 73‧4 to 121‧2/100,000/year (p < 0.001). For all other Manitoban children, the incidence increased from 3‧3 to 10‧7/100,000/year (p < 0.001). The prevalence of type 2 diabetes rose from 66‧4 to 124‧2/100,000/year between 2009 -10 and 2017-18 (<0.001). The prevalence in First Nation children rose from 282‧8 to 517‧9/100,000/year (p < 0.001) and in all other Manitoban children from 18‧4 to 35.0/100,000/year (p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The incidence and prevalence of type 2 diabetes is increasing in Manitoban children. While the greatest increase is seen in all other Manitoban children, type 2 diabetes disproportionally affects First Nation children. Understanding the prevalence and incidence of type 2 diabetes in children is necessary for resource allocation and to inform program planning, aimed at both prevention and management.

Understanding symptoms suggestive of long COVID syndrome and healthcare use among community-based populations in Manitoba, Canada: an observational cross-sectional survey.

OBJECTIVE: This study aims to characterise respondents who have COVID-19 and long COVID syndrome (LCS), and describe their symptoms and healthcare utilisation. DESIGN: Observational cross-sectional survey. SETTING: The one-time online survey was available from June 2022 to November 2022 to capture the experience of residents in Manitoba, Canada. PARTICIPANT: Individuals shared their experience with COVID-19 including their COVID-19 symptoms, symptoms suggestive of LCS and healthcare utilisation. We used descriptive statistics to characterise patients with COVID-19, describe symptoms suggestive of LCS and explore respondent health system use based on presenting symptoms. RESULTS: There were 654 Manitobans who responded to our survey, 616 (94.2%) of whom had or provided care to someone who had COVID-19, and 334 (54.2%) reported symptoms lasting 3 or more months. On average, respondents reported having 10 symptoms suggestive of LCS, with the most common being extreme fatigue (79.6%), issues with concentration, thinking and memory (76.6%), shortness of breath with activity (65.3%) and headaches (64.1%). Half of the respondents (49.2%) did not seek healthcare for COVID-19 or LCS. Primary care was sought by 66.2% respondents with symptoms suggestive of LCS, 15.2% visited an emergency department and 32.0% obtained care from a specialist or therapist. 62.6% of respondents with symptoms suggestive of LCS reported reducing work, school or other activities which demonstrate its impact on physical function and health-related quality of life. CONCLUSION: Consistent with the literature, there are a variety of symptoms experienced among individuals with COVID-19 and LCS. Healthcare providers face challenge in providing care for patients with a wide range of symptoms unlikely to respond to a single intervention. These findings support the value of interdisciplinary COVID-19 clinics due to the complexity of the syndrome. This study confirms that data collected from the healthcare system do not provide a comprehensive reflection of LCS.

Retrospective Cohort Study of Syphilis-Related Stillbirths in Winnipeg, Manitoba From 2017-2020.

OBJECTIVE: Syphilis-related stillbirths (SRSBs) disproportionately affect marginalized women with 11% of all local stillbirths having maternal syphilis as a contributory factor in 2020. This study describes the incidence and perinatal factors associated with SRSB. METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort study of all stillbirths occurring from 1 January 2017 to 31 December 2020, at a single tertiary-level referral hospital in Winnipeg, Manitoba. Cases that met criteria for SRSB were identified from hospital records and included in the final analysis. Maternal demographics, comorbidities, prenatal care attendance, sexually transmitted infection testing, treatment, and diagnostic investigations at time of stillbirth were collected from hospital charts using a standardized data collection form. Descriptive statistics were performed to present the results. RESULTS: The proportion of SRSB increased over the period of study from 0%-11%. Eleven cases were identified as SRSB, with diagnosis occurring intrapartum in 7 cases and antenatally in 4 cases. Of the 4 antenatal cases, only 2 had identifiable treatment responses indicated by microbiological and pathology workup. Commonly identified risk factors for SRSB were homelessness, mental illness, substance use, sexually transmitted co-infections, and lack of prenatal care. CONCLUSIONS: Cases of SRSB are rising in Winnipeg with 11% of all stillbirths having maternal syphilis as a contributory factor by 2020. SRSBs disproportionately affect marginalized women. The dramatic and rapid changes in the epidemiology of syphilis in Winnipeg are likely shared by other Canadian regions and warrant increased prevention strategies to improve outcomes.

Long-term Survival Among Patients With De Novo Human Epidermal Growth Receptor 2-Positive Metastatic Breast Cancer in Manitoba.

OBJECTIVES: Although metastatic breast cancer (MBC) is considered incurable, human epidermal growth receptor 2 (HER2)-directed therapy has improved outcomes significantly, with some patients experiencing durable responses to treatment. The aim of this study was to identify potential predictors of long-term survival (LTS) among patients with de novo HER2-positive MBC who received HER2-directed treatment. METHODS: Eligible patients from 2008 to 2018 were identified using the Manitoba Cancer Registry. LTS was defined as survival ≥5 years from the time of diagnosis. Univariate logistic regression models were performed to assess variables of clinical interest and the odds of LTS. Overall survival (OS) was defined as the time from diagnosis of MBC to death of any cause. OS was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method with log-rank comparative analyses as a univariate analysis. A Cox proportional hazards model was used for OS estimates in a univariate analysis. RESULTS: A total of 62 patients were diagnosed with de novo HER2-positive MBC and received HER2-directed therapy. Eighteen (29%) achieved LTS. The median OS of the whole cohort was 50.2 months (95% CI: 28.6-not reached). Radiographic response to first-line treatment was associated with LTS; complete and partial responses were both associated with higher odds of LTS (odds ratio: 28.33 [95% CI: 2.47-4006.71, P = 0.0043] and odds ratio: 7.80 [95% CI: 0.7317-1072.00, P = 0.0972], respectively). The best radiographic response was associated with improved OS. CONCLUSIONS: Radiographic response to first-line HER2-directed therapy is a predictor for LTS in patients with de novo HER2-positive MBC. Larger studies are needed to identify patients who can safely discontinue HER2-targeted therapy.

Province-Wide Ascertainment of Lynch Syndrome in Manitoba.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: We describe the experience of Lynch syndrome (LS) diagnosis in the province of Manitoba, Canada, over the past 20 years. METHODS: We performed a retrospective review of charts from the provincial Genetics Clinic from January 1, 2000, to May 31, 2023. We extracted data on individuals identified to carry a germline pathogenic or likely pathogenic LS gene variant, the mode of ascertainment, family history, and cascade genetic testing (CGT). Data were stratified and compared before and after the year of implementation (October 2013) of the provincial LS screening program (LSSP) and ascertainment by the LSSP vs clinic referrals (CRs). RESULTS: Between 2014 and 2021, 50 of 101 (49.5%) index cases were identified by the LSSP compared with 51 of 101 (50.5%) from CRs. The proportion of PMS2 variants was 34% (17 of 50) for LSSP index cases compared with 21.6% (11 of 51) for CRs from 2014 to 2021 (P < .001). Among CRs from 2014 to 2021, 24 of 51 (47.1%) families met the Amsterdam criteria, compared with 11 of 50 (22.0%) for the LSSP (P = .01). CGT occurred among 46.8% (95 of 203; average, 1.9 relatives/index) of first-degree relatives of CR index cases vs 36.5% (84 of 230; average, 1.7 relatives/index) of first-degree relatives of LSSP index cases (P = .03). Daughters were most likely to undergo CGT. CONCLUSIONS: A tumor screening program is more effective at detecting individuals with lower penetrant gene variants and families who do not meet traditional family history-based criteria. Cascade genetic testing is higher among clinic referrals compared with the screening program. These findings suggest a complementary role of these 2 ascertainment methods for Lynch syndrome.

Investigating inequalities in cancer staging and survival for adults with intellectual or developmental disabilities and cancer: A population-based study in Manitoba, Canada.

BACKGROUND: Cancer is a leading cause of death among adults living with intellectual or developmental disabilities (IDD). However, few epidemiological studies exist worldwide quantifying inequalities in cancer stage at diagnosis and survival for people with IDD relative to those without IDD. METHODS: A population-based, retrospective cohort study was conducted using provincial health and social administrative data in Manitoba, Canada. Adults (≥18 years) with a cancer diagnosis between 2004 and 2017 were included. Lifetime IDD was identified before the cancer diagnosis using an established algorithm. Modified Poisson regression with robust error variance was used to estimate the association between IDD status and metastatic cancer at diagnosis. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards analyses were used to the effect of IDD on overall survival following the cancer diagnosis. RESULTS: The staging and prognosis cohorts included 62,886 (n = 473 with IDD) and 74,143 (n = 592 with IDD) cancer patients, respectively. People living with IDD were significantly more likely to be diagnosed with metastatic cancer and die following their cancer diagnosis compared to those without IDD (RR=1.20; 95 % CI 1.05-1.38; HR= 1.53; 95 % CI 1.38-1.71). Significant heterogeneity by sex was identified for cancer survival (p = 0.005). DISCUSSION: People with IDD had more advanced cancer stage at diagnosis and worse survival relative to those without IDD. Identifying and developing strategies to address the factors responsible that contribute to these disparities is required for improving patient-centred cancer care for adults with IDD.

Perceptions of Beverages With Non-nutritive Sweeteners Among Indigenous Adults Living in Manitoba and Implications for Type 2 Diabetes.

OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to explore the perspectives of Indigenous adults on consuming beverages with non-nutritive sweeteners. METHODS: In this work, we used a community-based, participatory design in partnership with National Indigenous Diabetes Association, Four Arrows Regional Health Authority, and Fearless R2W. We conducted 74 qualitative interviews with Indigenous adults living in Manitoba, including Island Lake First Nations (n=39), Flin Flon (n=15), and the North End neighbourhood of Winnipeg (n=20). Data were indexed in NVivo, and transcripts were analyzed thematically. RESULTS: Participants exclusively discussed beverages with non-nutritive sweeteners (BNNSs) as an alternative to regular pop or sugary drinks, which were widely available, accessible, and consumed. Why or how BNNSs were viewed as an alternative comprised 3 subthemes: an alternative for health reasons; divergent taste preferences; and an alternative with mysterious but negative health effects. Participants who reported regular consumption of BNNSs largely described consuming them to manage type 2 diabetes. Fewer participants discussed BNNS as a means of weight management or as a preventive health behaviour. Participants who did not report regular BNNS consumption described not liking the taste of BNNSs. Finally, many participants described negative health impacts of consuming BNNSs, and specifically aspartame, although few articulated what those negative impacts were. CONCLUSIONS: Divergent perspectives among Indigenous adults regarding the health implications of consuming BNNSs may reflect ongoing scholarly debates. These findings have implications for the prevention and dietary management of type 2 diabetes in Indigenous communities.

Risk Prediction Scores for Type 2 Diabetes Microvascular and Cardiovascular Complications Derived and Validated With Real-world Data From 2 Provinces: The DIabeteS COmplications (DISCO) Risk Scores.

OBJECTIVES: Existing tools to predict the risk of complications among people with type 2 diabetes poorly discriminate high- from low-risk patients. Our aim in this study was to develop risk prediction scores for major type 2 diabetes complications using real-world clinical care data, and to externally validate these risk scores in a different jurisdiction. METHODS: Using health-care administrative data and electronic medical records data, risk scores were derived using data from 25,088 people with type 2 diabetes from the Canadian province of Ontario, followed between 2002 and 2017. Scores were developed for major clinically important microvascular events (treatment for retinopathy, foot ulcer, incident end-stage renal disease), cardiovascular disease events (acute myocardial infarction, heart failure, stroke, amputation), and mortality (cardiovascular, noncardiovascular, all-cause). They were then externally validated using the independent data of 11,416 people with type 2 diabetes from the province of Manitoba. RESULTS: The 10 derived risk scores had moderate to excellent discrimination in the independent validation cohort, ranging from 0.705 to 0.977. Their calibration to predict 5-year risk was excellent across most levels of predicted risk, albeit with some displaying underestimation at the highest levels of predicted risk. CONCLUSIONS: The DIabeteS COmplications (DISCO) risk scores for major type 2 diabetes complications were derived and externally validated using contemporary real-world clinical data. As a result, they may be more accurate than other risk prediction scores derived using randomized trial data. The use of more accurate risk scores in clinical practice will help improve personalization of clinical care for patients with type 2 diabetes.

Riding high: seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 after 4 pandemic waves in Manitoba, Canada, April 2020-February 2022.

BACKGROUND: Canada is emerging from the largest SARS-CoV-2 Omicron wave to date, with over 3.3 million confirmed cases. Unfortunately, PCR confirmed cases illuminate only a small portion of infections in the community and underestimate true disease burden. Population based seroprevalence studies, which measure antibody levels against a virus can more accurately estimate infection rates in the community and identify geographical and epidemiological trends to inform public health responses. METHODS: The Manitoba COVID-19 Seroprevalence (MCS) study is a population-based cross-sectional study to assess the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies across the province. Residual convenience specimens (n = 14,901) were tested for anti-SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid and spike IgG antibodies from April 1, 2020 to February 31, 2022. We estimated the monthly and cumulative prevalence using an exponential decay model, accounting for population demographics, sensitivity/specificity, and antibody waning. This approach generated estimates of natural infection as well as total antibody including vaccine-induced immunity within the community. FINDINGS: After four waves of the pandemic, 60.1% (95%CI-56.6-63.7) of Manitobans have generated SARS-CoV-2 antibodies due to natural exposure independent of vaccination. Geographical analysis indicates a large portion of provincial prevalence stems from increased transmission in the Northern (92.3%) and Southern (71.8%) regional health authorities. Despite the high mortality rates reported by Manitoba, infection fatality ratios (IFR) peaked at 0.67% and declined to 0.20% following the Omicron wave, indicating parity with other national and international jurisdictions. Manitoba has achieved 93.4% (95%CI- 91.5-95.1) total antibody when including vaccination. INTERPRETATION: Our data shows that more than 3 in 5 Manitobans have been infected by SARS-CoV-2 after four waves of the pandemic. This study also identifies key geographical and age specific prevalence rates that have contributed greatly to the overall severity of the pandemic in Manitoba and will inform jurisdictions considering reduction of public health measures.

Cancer incidence during the COVID-19 pandemic by region of residence in Manitoba, Canada: A cancer registry-based interrupted time series study.

INTRODUCTION: Health care in Manitoba, Canada is divided into five regions, each with unique geographies, demographics, health care access, and health status. COVID-19-related restrictions and subsequent responses also differed by region. To understand the impact of the pandemic on cancer incidence in the context of these differences, we examined age-standardized cancer incidence rates by region over time before and after the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: We used a population-based quasi-experimental study design, population-based data, and an interrupted time series analysis to examine the rate of new cancer diagnoses before (January 2015 until December 2019) and after the start of COVID-19 and the interventions implemented to mitigate its impact (April 2020 until December 2021) by region. RESULTS: Overall cancer incidence differed by region and remained lower than expected in Winnipeg (4.6% deficit, 447 cases), Prairie Mountain (6.9% deficit, 125 cases), and Southern (13.0% deficit, 238 cases). Southern was the only region that had a significantly higher deficit in cases compared to Manitoba (ratio 0.92, 95% CI 0.86, 0.99). Breast and colorectal cancer incidence decreased at the start of the pandemic in all regions except Northern. Lung cancer incidence decreased in the Interlake-Eastern region and increased in the Northern region. Prostate cancer incidence increased in Interlake-Eastern. CONCLUSIONS: The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on cancer incidence differed by region. The deficit in the number of cases was largest in the southern region and was highest for breast and prostate cancers. Cancer incidence did not significantly decrease in the most northern, remote region.

Impact of the universal seasonal influenza vaccination policy in the province of Manitoba, Canada: A population-based, province-wide record-linkage study.

INTRODUCTION: In 2010, the government of the province of Manitoba, Canada introduced universal seasonal influenza vaccination policy (USIVP), providing free-of-charge vaccination to all registered residents of the province at least six months of age. Impact of the policy on seasonal influenza vaccine (SIV) uptake (receipt of vaccine) in Manitoba remains unclear, as there is a lack of published evaluations. METHODS: We conducted an ecological study, utilizing population-wide data from several linked de-identified Manitoba Health and Seniors Care administrative health databases. The study period was from 2000/01-2019/20 influenza seasons. The primary exposure was USIVP (five influenza seasons pre-policy [2005/06-2009/10] compared with post-policy [2010/11-2014/15]). The outcome was SIV uptake. We conducted pre/post logistic regression analysis stratified by age group (<5-, 5-17-, 18-44-, 45-64-, ≥65-year-olds) and certain population socioeconomic and health-related characteristics. Results are adjusted odds ratios with associated 95 % confidence intervals. RESULTS: We observed significantly increased adjusted odds of SIV uptake post-policy relative to pre-policy in all age groups except ≥65-year-olds already covered from inception of the vaccination programme. The adjusted odds ratios ranged from 0.76 (0.75-0.76) among ≥65-year-olds to 2.15 (2.13-2.18) among 5-17-year-olds, and were largely homogeneous within age groups across sex, income quintiles, regions of residence, and categories of number of visits to primary care physician/hospitalization one year prior to an influenza season except among <5- and 5-17-year-olds. These findings were mostly consistent irrespective of sex and region of residence although there was variability across income quintiles in Northern Manitoba region. CONCLUSIONS: Introduction of the USIVP in Manitoba was followed by a significant increase in SIV uptake in the five years post policy among <65-year-olds, with similar increased relative odds of vaccination observed within age groups across subpopulations. The observed variations in the relative odds of vaccination across income quintiles in Northern Manitoba region requires administrative attention.