Most States Allow Medicaid Managed Care Plans Discretion To Restrict Substance Use Disorder Treatment Benefits.

Managed care plans, which contract with states to cover three-quarters of Medicaid enrollees, play a crucial role in addressing the drug epidemic in the United States. However, substance use disorder benefits vary across Medicaid managed care plans, and it is unclear what role states play in regulating their activities. To address this question, we surveyed thirty-three states and Washington, D.C., regarding their substance use disorder treatment coverage and utilization management requirements for Medicaid managed care plans in 2021. Most states mandated coverage of common forms of substance use disorder treatment and prohibited annual maximums and enrollee cost sharing in managed care. Fewer than one-third of states forbade managed care plans from imposing prior authorization for each treatment service. For most treatment medications, fewer than two-thirds of states prohibited prior authorization, drug testing, "fail first," or psychosocial therapy requirements in managed care. Our findings suggest that many states give managed care plans broad discretion to impose requirements on covered substance use disorder treatments, which may affect access to lifesaving care.

Overlap In Carriers And Networks In Medicaid And The Individual Marketplaces.

As people lose Medicaid because of the end of the COVID-19 public health emergency, many states will route former Medicaid managed care enrollees into Affordable Care Act Marketplace coverage with the same carrier. In 2021, 52.1 percent of Medicaid managed care enrollees were enrolled by a carrier that also had a plan on the Marketplace in the same county.

Tiny patients, huge impact: a call to action.

The continuation of high-quality care is under threat for the over 70 million children in the United States. Inequities between Medicaid and Medicare payments and the current procedural-based reimbursement model have resulted in the undervaluing of pediatric medical care and lack of prioritization of children's health by institutions. The number of pediatricians, including pediatric subspecialists, and pediatric healthcare centers are declining due to mounting financial obstacles and this crucial healthcare supply is no longer able to keep up with demand. The reasons contributing to these inequities are clear and rational: Medicaid has significantly lower rates of reimbursement compared to Medicare, yet Medicaid covers almost half of children in the United States and creates the natural incentive for medical institutions to prioritize the care of adults. Additionally, certain aspects of children's healthcare are unique from adults and are not adequately covered in the current payment model. The result of decades of devaluing children's healthcare has led to a substantial decrease in the availability of services, medications, and equipment needed to provide healthcare to children across the nation. Fortunately, the solution is just as clear as the problem: we must value the healthcare of children as much as that of adults by increasing Medicaid funding to be on par with Medicare and appreciate the complexities of care beyond procedures. If these changes are not made, the high-quality care for children in the US will continue to decline and increase strain on the overall healthcare system as these children age into adulthood.

Effect of Medicaid expansion on cancer treatment and survival among Medicaid beneficiaries and the uninsured.

BACKGROUND: The Affordable Care Act expanded Medicaid coverage for people with low income in the United States. Expanded insurance coverage could promote more timely access to cancer treatment, which could improve overall survival (OS), yet the long-term effects of Medicaid expansion (ME) remain unknown. We evaluated whether ME was associated with improved timely treatment initiation (TTI) and 3-year OS among patients with breast, cervical, colon, and lung cancers who were affected by the policy. METHODS: Medicaid-insured or uninsured patients aged 40-64 with stage I-III breast, cervical, colon, or non-small cell lung cancer within the National Cancer Database (NCDB). A difference-in-differences (DID) approach was used to compare changes in TTI (within 60 days) and 3-year OS between patients in ME states versus nonexpansion (NE) states before (2010-2013) and after (2015-2018) ME. Adjusted DID estimates for TTI and 3-year OS were calculated using multivariable linear regression and Cox proportional hazards regression models, respectively. RESULTS: ME was associated with a relative increase in TTI within 60 days for breast (DID = 4.6; p < 0.001), cervical (DID = 5.0 p = 0.013), and colon (DID = 4.0, p = 0.008), but not lung cancer (p = 0.505). In Cox regression analysis, ME was associated with improved 3-year OS for breast (DID hazard ratio [HR] = 0.82, p = 0.009), cervical (DID-HR = 0.81, p = 0.048), and lung (DID-HR = 0.87, p = 0.003). Changes in 3-year OS for colon cancer were not statistically different between ME and NE states (DID-HR, 0.77; p = 0.075). CONCLUSIONS: Findings suggest that expanded insurance coverage can improve treatment and survival outcomes among low income and uninsured patients with cancer. As the debate surrounding ME continues nationwide, our findings serve as valuable insights to inform the development of policies aimed at fostering accessible and affordable healthcare for all.

Prevalence, Mortality, and Access to Care for Chronic Kidney Disease in Medicaid-Enrolled Adults With Sickle Cell Disease in California: Retrospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a significant complication in patients with sickle cell disease (SCD), leading to increased mortality. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to investigate the burden of CKD in Medicaid-enrolled adults with SCD in California, examine differences in disease burden between male and female individuals, and assess mortality rates and access to specialized care. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study used the California Sickle Cell Data Collection program to identify and monitor individuals with SCD. Medicaid claims, vital records, emergency department, and hospitalization data from 2011 to 2020 were analyzed. CKD prevalence was assessed based on ICD (International Classification of Diseases) codes, and mortality rates were calculated. Access to specialized care was examined through outpatient encounter rates with hematologists and nephrologists. RESULTS: Among the 2345 adults with SCD, 24.4% (n=572) met the case definition for CKD. The SCD-CKD group was older at the beginning of this study (average age 44, SD 14 vs 34, SD 12.6 years) than the group without CKD. CKD prevalence increased with age, revealing significant disparities by sex. While the youngest (18-29 years) and oldest (>65 years) groups showed similar CKD prevalences between sexes (female: 12/111, 10.8% and male: 12/101, 11.9%; female: 74/147, 50.3% and male: 34/66, 51.5%, respectively), male individuals in the aged 30-59 years bracket exhibited significantly higher rates than female individuals (30-39 years: 49/294, 16.7%, P=.01; 40-49 years: 52/182, 28.6%, P=.02; and 50-59 years: 76/157,48.4%, P<.001). During this study, of the 2345 adults, 435 (18.5%) deaths occurred, predominantly within the SCD-CKD cohort (226/435, 39.5%). The median age at death was 53 (IQR 61-44) years for the SCD-CKD group compared to 43 (IQR 33-56) years for the SCD group, with male individuals in the SCD-CKD group showing significantly higher mortality rates (111/242, 45.9%; P=.009) than female individuals (115/330, 34.9%). Access to specialist care was notably limited: approximately half (281/572, 49.1%) of the SCD-CKD cohort had no hematologist visits, and 61.9% (354/572) did not see a nephrologist during this study's period. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides robust estimates of CKD prevalence and mortality among Medicaid-enrolled adults with SCD in California. The findings highlight the need for improved access to specialized care for this population and increased awareness of the high mortality risk and progression associated with CKD.

Bridging the gaps in pediatric complex healthcare: the case for home nursing care among children with medical complexity.

BACKGROUND: Children with medical complexity (CMC) comprise < 1% of the pediatric population, but account for nearly one-third of healthcare expenditures. Further, while CMC account for up to 80% of pediatric inpatient hospital costs, only 2% of Medicaid spending is attributed to home healthcare. As a result, the current health system heavily relies on family caregivers to fill existing care gaps. This study aimed to: (1) examine factors associated with hospital admissions among CMC and (2) contextualize the potential for home nursing care to improve outcomes among CMC and their families in South Carolina (SC). METHODS: This mixed-methods study was conducted among CMC, their family caregivers, and physicians in SC. Electronic health records data from a primary care clinic within a large health system (7/1/2022-6/30/2023) was analyzed. Logistic regression examined factors associated with hospitalizations among CMC. In-depth interviews (N = 15) were conducted among physicians and caregivers of CMC statewide. Patient-level quantitative data is triangulated with conceptual findings from interviews. RESULTS: Overall, 39.87% of CMC experienced ≥ 1 hospitalization in the past 12 months. CMC with higher hospitalization risk were dependent on respiratory or neurological/neuromuscular medical devices, not non-Hispanic White, and demonstrated higher healthcare utilization. Interview findings contextualized efforts to reduce hospitalizations, and suggested adaptations related to capacity and willingness to provide complex care for CMC and their families. CONCLUSIONS: Findings may inform multi-level solutions for accessible, high-quality home nursing care among CMC and their families. Providers may learn from caregivers' insight to emphasize family-centered care practices, acknowledging time and financial constraints while optimizing the quality of medical care provided in the home.

Access to PrEP and other sexual health services for cisgender women in the United States: a review of state policy and Medicaid expansion.

Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) has the potential to prevent new HIV infections, but it is unclear how state policies governing sexual and reproductive health services (SRH) impact access for cisgender women. The objective of this review is to identify barriers to PrEP access for cisgender women in the United States. Using the CDC Atlas Program, 20 states with the highest HIV incidence among cisgender women were included in this analysis. Through a search conducted in May-July 2022 of CDC, PrEPWatch.org, and other State Department and Insurance websites, Medicaid expansion status, pharmacist PrEP prescribing laws, financial support programs, and Traditional Medicaid coverage of PrEP, HIV testing, and emergency contraception were reviewed. Of the included states, nearly half did not expand Medicaid at the state level. Emergency contraception and HIV testing was covered under Traditional Medicaid for almost all included states, but insurance stipulations and eligibility requirements remain. Although PrEP is covered under all Traditional Medicaid plans, six states require pre-authorization. Three states have HIV testing mandates, four allow pharmacists to prescribe PrEP and six have financial support programs to cover the cost of PrEP. Medicaid expansion, pre-authorization requirements for PrEP prescriptions and emergency contraception, and limitations on pharmacist prescribing abilities were identified as barriers to SRH access for cisgender women. Medicaid expansion should be prioritized as an approach to expanding access to HIV prevention services at the state level.

Clinician characteristics associated with fluoride varnish applications during well-child visits.

OBJECTIVES: To identify factors associated with clinicians' likelihood and intensity of applying fluoride varnish (FV) overall and for visits paid by Medicaid and private insurers. STUDY DESIGN: Observational study using claims data. METHODS: Using the Massachusetts All-Payer Claims Database (2016-2018), we conducted a repeated cross-sectional study of 2911 clinicians (7277 clinician-year observations) providing well-child visits to children aged 1 to 5 years. Zero-inflated negative binomial models estimated the probability of a clinician applying FV and the number of visits with FV applications, overall and separately for visits paid by Medicaid and private insurers. RESULTS: A total of 30.9% of clinician-years applied FV at least once, and overall, an average of 8.4% of a clinician's well-child visits included FV annually. Controlling for all covariates, having a higher percentage of patients insured by Medicaid was associated with applying FV (OR, 1.35; 95% CI, 1.23-1.45) and a higher expected number of applications (OR, 1.05; 95% CI, 1.02-1.09). Additionally, having a higher percentage of patients aged 1 to 5 years was associated with applying FV (OR, 1.20; 95% CI, 1.01-1.43), but not the number of applications. Similar associations were observed among visits paid by private insurers. CONCLUSIONS: Despite clinical recommendations and mandated insurance reimbursements, the likelihood and intensity of FV applications was low for most pediatric primary care clinicians. Clinician behavior was associated with patient-panel characteristics, suggesting the need for interventions that account for these differences.

Multilevel Interventions and Dental Attendance in Pediatric Primary Care: A Cluster Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: Untreated tooth decay is disproportionately present among low-income young children. While American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP) guidelines require pediatric clinicians to implement oral health care, the effectiveness of these oral health interventions has been inconclusive. Objective: To test the effectiveness of multilevel interventions in increasing dental attendance and reducing untreated decay among young children attending well-child visits (WCVs). Design, Setting, and Participants: The Pediatric Providers Against Cavities in Children's Teeth study is a cluster randomized clinical trial that was conducted at 18 pediatric primary care practices in northeast Ohio. The trial data were collected between November 2017 and July 2022, with data analyses conducted from August 2022 to March 2023. Eligible participants included Medicaid-enrolled preschoolers aged 3 to 6 years attending WCVs at participating practices who were enrolled at baseline (WCV 1) and followed-up for 2 consecutive examinations (WCV 2 and WCV 3). Interventions: Clinicians in the intervention group received both the practice-level (electronic medical record changes to document oral health) and clinician-level (common-sense model of self-regulation theory-based oral health education and skills training) interventions. Control group clinicians received AAP-based standard oral health education alone. Main Outcomes and Measures: Dental attendance was determined through clinical dental examinations conducted by hygienists utilizing International Caries Detection and Assessment System criteria and also from Medicaid claims data. Untreated decay was determined through clinical examinations. A generalized estimating equations (GEE) approach was used for both clinical examinations and Medicaid claims data. Results: Eighteen practices were randomized to either intervention or control. Participants included 63 clinicians (mean [SD] age, 47.0 [11.3] years; 48 female [76.2%] and 15 male [23.8%]; 28 in the intervention group [44.4%]; 35 in the control group [55.6%]) and 1023 parent-child dyads (mean [SD] child age, 56.1 [14.0] months; 555 male children [54.4%] and 466 female children [45.6%]; 517 in the intervention group [50.5%]; 506 in the control group [49.5%]). Dental attendance from clinical examinations was significantly higher in the intervention group (170 children [52.0%]) vs control group (150 children [43.1%]) with a difference of 8.9% (95% CI, 1.4% to 16.4%; P = .02). The GEE model using clinical examinations showed a significant increase in dental attendance in the intervention group vs control group (adjusted odds ratio, 1.34; 95% CI, 1.07 to 1.69). From Medicaid claims, the control group had significantly higher dental attendance than the intervention group at 2 years (332 children [79.6%] vs 330 children [73.7%]; P = .04) but not at 3 years. A clinically but not statistically significant reduction in mean number of untreated decay was found in the intervention group compared with controls (B = -0.27; 95% CI, -0.56 to 0.02). Conclusions and Relevance: In this cluster randomized clinical trial, children in the intervention group had better dental outcomes as was evidenced by increased dental attendance and lower untreated decay. These findings suggest that intervention group clinicians comprehensively integrated oral health services into WCVs. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT03385629.

Medicaid-Covered Peer Support Services Used by Enrollees With Opioid Use Disorder.

This cross-sectional study provides a multistate description of utilization of Medicaid-covered peer support services in 2019 by enrollees with opioid use disorder (OUD).

The association of travel burden with prenatal care utilization, what happens after provider-selection.

BACKGROUND: Birthing people in the United States face numerous challenges when accessing adequate prenatal care (PNC), with transportation being a significant obstacle. Nevertheless, previous studies that relied solely on the distance to the nearest provider cannot differentiate the effects of travel burden on provider selection and care utilization. These may exaggerate the degree of inequality in access and fail to capture perceived travel burden. This study investigated whether travel distances to the initially visited provider, to the predominant PNC provider, and perceived travel burden (measured by the travel disadvantage index (TDI)) are associated with PNC utilization. METHODS: A retrospective cohort of people with live births were identified from South Carolina Medicaid claims files in 2015-2018. Travel distances were calculated using Google Maps. The estimated TDI was derived from local pilot survey data. PNC utilization was measured by PNC initiation and frequency. Repeated measure logistic regression test was utilized for categorical variables and one-way repeated measures ANOVA for continuous variables. Unadjusted and adjusted ordinal logistic regressions with repeated measure were utilized to examine the association of travel burdens with PNC usage. RESULTS: For 25,801 pregnancies among those continuously enrolled in Medicaid, birthing people traveled an average of 24.9 and 24.2 miles to their initial and predominant provider, respectively, with an average TDI of -11.4 (SD, 8.5). Of these pregnancies, 60% initiated PNC in the first trimester, with an average of 8 total visits. Compared to the specialties of initial providers, predominant providers were more likely to be OBGYN-related specialists (81.6% vs. 87.9%, p < .001) and midwives (3.5% vs. 4.3%, p < .001). Multiple regression analysis revealed that every doubling of travel distance was associated with less likelihood to initiate timely PNC (OR: 0.95, p < .001) and a lower visit frequency (OR: 0.85, p < .001), and every doubling of TDI was associated with less likelihood to initiate timely PNC (OR: 0.94, p = .04). CONCLUSIONS: Findings suggest that the association between travel burden and PNC utilization was statistically significant but of limited practical significance.

Medicaid Coverage in Early Childhood for Children With Sickle Cell Disease.

This cohort study examines patterns of Medicaid coverage in the first 3 years of life among children with sickle cell disease across 5 states.

Mental health care use and quality among Medicaid adults with serious mental illness receiving care at Federally Qualified Health Centers vs. other settings.

BACKGROUND: Federally Qualified Health Centers (FQHCs) are a critical source of care for medically underserved populations and often serve as medical homes for individuals with serious mental illness (SMI). Many FQHCs provide mental health services and could facilitate access to mental health treatment within and outside of FQHCs. This study compared mental health care utilization and acute care events for adult Medicaid enrollees with SMI who receive care at Federally Qualified Health Centers (FQHCs) vs. other settings. METHODS: This study used the 2015-2016 Massachusetts All-Payer Claims Database to examine outpatient mental health care and acute care events for 32,330 Medicaid adults, ages 18-64 and with major depressive, bipolar, or schizophrenia spectrum disorders (SSD), who resided in FQHC service areas and received care from FQHCs vs. other settings in 2015. Multivariable linear regressions assessed associations between receiving care at FQHCs and outpatient mental health visits, psychotropic medication fills, and acute care events in 2016. RESULTS: There were 8,887 (27.5%) adults in the study population (N = 32,330) who had at least one FQHC visit in 2015. Those who received care at FQHCs were more likely to have outpatient mental health visits (73.3% vs. 71.2%) and psychotropic medication fills (73.2% vs. 69.0%, both p < .05), including antidepressants among those with depressive disorders and antipsychotics among those with SSD. They were more likely to have ED visits (74.0% vs. 68.7%), but less likely to be hospitalized (27.8% vs. 31.9%, both p < .05). However, there was no significant difference in the likelihood of having an acute psychiatric hospitalization (9.5% vs. 9.8%, p = .35). CONCLUSIONS: Among Medicaid enrollees with SMIs who had access to care at FQHCs, those receiving care at FQHCs were more likely to have outpatient mental health visits and psychotropic medication fills, with lower rates of hospitalization, suggesting potentially improved quality of outpatient care. Higher ED visit rates among those receiving care at FQHCs warrant additional investigation.

Medicaid Expansion and Restriction Policies for Hepatitis C Treatment.

Importance: Hepatitis C can be cured with direct-acting antivirals (DAAs), but Medicaid programs have implemented fibrosis, sobriety, and prescriber restrictions to control costs. Although restrictions are easing, understanding their association with hepatitis C treatment rates is crucial to inform policies that increase access to lifesaving treatment. Objective: To estimate the association of jurisdictional (50 states and Washington, DC) DAA restrictions and Medicaid expansion with the number of Medicaid recipients with filled prescriptions for DAAs. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cross-sectional study used publicly available Medicaid documents and claims data from January 1, 2014, to December 31, 2021, to compare the number of unique Medicaid recipients treated with DAAs in each jurisdiction year with Medicaid expansion status and categories of fibrosis, sobriety, and prescriber restrictions. Medicaid recipients from all 50 states and Washington, DC, during the study period were included. Multilevel Poisson regression was used to estimate the association between Medicaid expansion and DAA restrictive policies on jurisdictional Medicaid DAA prescription fills. Data were analyzed initially from August 15 to November 15, 2023, and subsequently from April 15 to May 9, 2024. Exposures: Jurisdictional Medicaid expansion status and fibrosis, sobriety, and prescriber DAA restrictions. Main Outcomes and Measures: Number of people treated with DAAs per 100 000 Medicaid recipients per year. Results: A total of 381 373 Medicaid recipients filled DAA prescriptions during the study period (57.3% aged 45-64 years; 58.7% men; 15.2% non-Hispanic Black and 52.2% non-Hispanic White). Medicaid nonexpansion jurisdictions had fewer filled DAA prescriptions per 100 000 Medicaid recipients per year than expansion jurisdictions (38.6 vs 86.6; adjusted relative risk [ARR], 0.56 [95% CI, 0.52-0.61]). Jurisdictions with F3 to F4 (34.0 per 100 000 Medicaid recipients per year; ARR, 0.39 [95% CI, 0.37-0.66]) or F1 to F2 fibrosis restrictions (61.9 per 100 000 Medicaid recipients per year; ARR, 0.62 [95% CI, 0.59-0.66]) had lower treatment rates than jurisdictions without fibrosis restrictions (94.8 per 100 000 Medicaid recipients per year). Compared with no sobriety restrictions (113.5 per 100 000 Medicaid recipients per year), 6 to 12 months of sobriety (38.3 per 100 000 Medicaid recipients per year; ARR, 0.65 [95% CI, 0.61-0.71]) and screening and counseling requirements (84.7 per 100 000 Medicaid recipients per year; ARR, 0.87 [95% CI, 0.83-0.92]) were associated with reduced treatment rates, while 1 to 5 months of sobriety was not statistically significantly different. Compared with no prescriber restrictions (97.8 per 100 000 Medicaid recipients per year), specialist consult restrictions was associated with increased treatment (66.2 per 100 000 Medicaid recipients per year; ARR, 1.05 [95% CI, 1.00-1.10]), while specialist required restrictions were not statistically significant. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cross-sectional study, Medicaid nonexpansion status, fibrosis, and sobriety restrictions were associated with a reduction in the number of people with Medicaid who were treated for hepatitis C. Removing DAA restrictions might facilitate treatment of more people diagnosed with hepatitis C.

Measuring Access to Mental Health Services Among Primary Care Patients.

BACKGROUND: The lifetime risk of mental health disorders is almost 50% and, in any year, about 25% of the population have a psychiatric disorder. Many of those people are cared for in primary care settings. RESEARCH OBJECTIVE: Measure access to mental health services, such as getting counselling or prescription mental health medications, using new patient survey questions that can be added to Consumer Assessment of Healthcare Providers and Systems (CAHPS) surveys. STUDY DESIGN: Surveys were conducted with a stratified probability sample of patients receiving primary care services in a single state in 2018-2019. Medicaid and privately insured patients were surveyed by mail or telephone, respectively. RESULTS: Approximately 14% of sampled patients responded to a survey. More than 10% of privately insured respondents and about 20% of Medicaid respondents got or tried to get appointments for mental health care. About 15% of privately insured respondents and 11% of Medicaid respondents reported problems getting appointments with counselors. Only 8%-9% of respondents seeking mental health medicines reported problems getting appointments for prescriptions. A composite measure combining access to counselors and prescribers of mental health medicines evidenced adequate internal consistency reliability. Group level reliability estimates were low. CONCLUSIONS: Many respondents got or tried to get mental health services and a substantial number reported problems getting appointments or getting mental health prescriptions. The tested questions can be combined into an Access to Mental Health Care measure, which can be included in patient experience surveys for ambulatory care to monitor access to behavioral health care.

The Cumulative Effect of Expanding the Breadth and Scope of Coverage for Substance Use Disorder Treatment on Behavioral Health Acute Inpatient Admissions: Evidence from Virginia Medicaid.

We evaluated the impact of Medicaid policies in Virginia (VA), namely the Addiction and Recovery Treatment Services (ARTS) program and Medicaid expansion, on the number of behavioral health acute inpatient admissions from 2016 to 2019. We used Poisson fixed-effect event study regression and compared average proportional differences in admissions over three time periods: (1) prior to ARTS; (2) following ARTS but before Medicaid expansion; (3) post-Medicaid expansion. The number of behavioral health acute inpatient admissions decreased by 2.6% (95% CI [-5.1, -0.2]) in the first quarter of 2018 and this decrease gradually intensified by 4.9% (95% CI [-7.5, -2.4]) in the fourth quarter of 2018 compared to the second quarter of 2017 (beginning of ARTS) in VA relative to North Carolina (NC). Following the first quarter of 2019 (beginning of Medicaid expansion), decreases in VA admissions became larger relative to NC. The average proportional difference in admissions estimated a decrease of 2.7% (95% CI, [-4.1, -0.8]) after ARTS but before Medicaid expansion and a decrease of 2.9% (95% CI, [-6.1, 0.4]) post-Medicaid expansion compared to pre-ARTS in VA compared to NC. Behavioral health acute inpatient admissions in VA decreased following ARTS implementation, and the decrease became larger after Medicaid expansion.

Health Insurance Coverage Projections For The US Population And Sources Of Coverage, By Age, 2024-34.

In the Congressional Budget Office's projections of health insurance coverage, 92.3 percent of the US population, or 316 million people, have coverage in 2024, and 7.7 percent, or 26 million, are uninsured. The uninsured share of the population will rise over the course of the next decade, before settling at 8.9 percent in 2034, largely as a result of the end of COVID-19 pandemic-related Medicaid policies, the expiration of enhanced subsidies available through the Affordable Care Act health insurance Marketplaces, and a surge in immigration that began in 2022. The largest increase in the uninsured population will be among adults ages 19-44. Employment-based coverage will be the predominant source of health insurance, and as the population ages, Medicare enrollment will grow significantly. After greater-than-expected enrollment in 2023, Marketplace enrollment is projected to reach an all-time high of twenty-three million people in 2025.

Coverage and Access Changes During Medicaid Unwinding.

Importance: States resumed Medicaid eligibility redeterminations, which had been paused during the COVID-19 public health emergency, in 2023. This unwinding of the pandemic continuous coverage provision raised concerns about the extent to which beneficiaries would lose Medicaid coverage and how that would affect access to care. Objective: To assess early changes in insurance and access to care during Medicaid unwinding among individuals with low incomes in 4 Southern states. Design, Setting, and Participants: This multimodal survey was conducted in Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, and Texas from September to November 2023, used random-digit dialing and probabilistic address-based sampling, and included US citizens aged 19 to 64 years reporting 2022 incomes at or less than 138% of the federal poverty level. Exposure: Medicaid enrollment at any point since March 2020, when continuous coverage began. Main Outcomes and Measures: Self-reported disenrollment from Medicaid, insurance at the time of interview, and self-reported access to care. Using multivariate logistic regression, factors associated with Medicaid loss were evaluated. Access and affordability of care among respondents who exited Medicaid vs those who remained enrolled were compared, after multivariate adjustment. Results: The sample contained 2210 adults (1282 women [58.0%]; 505 Black non-Hispanic individuals [22.9%], 393 Hispanic individuals [17.8%], and 1133 White non-Hispanic individuals [51.3%]) with 2022 household incomes less than 138% of the federal poverty line. On a survey-weighted basis, 1564 (70.8%) reported that they and/or a dependent child of theirs had Medicaid at some point since March 2020. Among adult respondents who had Medicaid, 179 (12.5%) were no longer enrolled in Medicaid at the time of the survey, with state estimates ranging from 7.0% (n = 19) in Kentucky to 16.2% (n = 82) in Arkansas. Fewer children who had Medicaid lost coverage (42 [5.4%]). Among adult respondents who left Medicaid since 2020 and reported coverage status at time of interview, 47.8% (n = 80) were uninsured, 27.0% (n = 45) had employer-sponsored insurance, and the remainder had other coverage as of fall 2023. Disenrollment was higher among younger adults, employed individuals, and rural residents but lower among non-Hispanic Black respondents (compared with non-Hispanic White respondents) and among those receiving Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program benefits. Losing Medicaid was significantly associated with delaying care due to cost and worsening affordability of care. Conclusions and Relevance: The results of this survey study indicated that 6 months into unwinding, 1 in 8 Medicaid beneficiaries reported exiting the program, with wide state variation. Roughly half who lost Medicaid coverage became uninsured. Among those moving to new coverage, many experienced coverage gaps. Adults exiting Medicaid reported more challenges accessing care than respondents who remained enrolled.