Prospective analysis of the flows of certain rare earths in Europe at the 2020 horizon.

This paper proposes a forecast of certain rare earth flows in Europe at the 2020 horizon, based on an analysis of trends influencing various actors of the rare earth industry along the value chain. While 2020 is indicated as the forecast horizon, the analysis should be considered as more representative of the next decade. The rare earths considered here are used in applications that are important for a low-carbon energy transition and/or have a significant recycling potential: NdFeB magnets (Pr, Nd, Dy), NiMH batteries (Pr, Nd) and fluorescent lamp phosphors (Eu, Tb, Y). An analysis of major trends affecting the rare earth industry in Europe along the value chain (including extraction, separation, fabrication, manufacture, use and recycling), helps to build a scenario for a material flow analysis of these rare earths in Europe. The scenario assumes in particular that during the next decade, there exists a rare earth mine in production in Europe (with Norra Kärr in Sweden as a most likely candidate) and also that recycling is in line with targets proposed in recent European legislation. Results are presented in the form of Sankey diagrams which help visualize the various flows for the three applications. For example, calculations forecast flows from extraction to separation of Pr, Nd and Dy for magnet applications in Europe, on the order of 310 tons, 980 tons and 80 tons rare earth metal resp., while recycled flows are 35 tons, 110 tons and 30 tons resp. Calculations illustrate how the relative contribution of recycling to supply strongly depends on the situation with respect to demand. Considering the balance between supply and demand, it is not anticipated any significant shortage of rare earth supply in Europe at the 2020 horizon, barring any new geopolitical crisis involving China. For some heavy rare earths, supply will in fact largely outweigh demand, as for example Europium due to the phasing out of fluorescent lights by LEDs.

Scarcity of rare earth elements.

Rare earth elements (REEs) are important for green and a large variety of high-tech technologies and are, therefore, in high demand. As a result, supply with REEs is likely to be disrupted (the degree of depends on the REE) in the near future. The 17 REEs are divided into heavy and light REEs. Other critical elements besides REEs, identified by the European Commission, are also becoming less easily available. Although there is no deficiency in the earth's crust of rare earth oxides, the economic accessibility is limited. The increased demand for REEs, the decreasing export from China, and geopolitical concerns on availability contributed to the (re)opening of mines in Australia and the USA and other mines are slow to follow. As a result, short supply of particularly terbium, dysprosium, praseodymium, and neodymium is expected to be problematic for at least the short term, also because they cannot be substituted. Recycling REEs from electronic waste would be a solution, but so far there are hardly any established REE recycling methods. Decreasing the dependency on REEs, for example, by identifying possible replacements or increasing their efficient use, represents another possibility.

Uncovering the end uses of the rare earth elements.

The rare earth elements (REE) are a group of fifteen elements with unique properties that make them indispensable for a wide variety of emerging and conventional established technologies. However, quantitative knowledge of REE remains sparse, despite the current heightened interest in future availability of the resources. Mining is heavily concentrated in China, whose monopoly position and potential restriction of exports render primary supply vulnerable to short term disruption. We have drawn upon the published literature and unpublished materials in different languages to derive the first quantitative annual domestic production by end use of individual rare earth elements from 1995 to 2007. The information is illustrated in Sankey diagrams for the years 1995 and 2007. Other years are available in the supporting information. Comparing 1995 and 2007, the production of the rare earth elements in China, Japan, and the US changed dramatically in quantities and structure. The information can provide a solid foundation for industries, academic institutions and governments to make decisions and develop strategies.

Towards a dynamic assessment of raw materials criticality: linking agent-based demand--with material flow supply modelling approaches.

Emerging technologies such as information and communication-, photovoltaic- or battery technologies are expected to increase significantly the demand for scarce metals in the near future. The recently developed methods to evaluate the criticality of mineral raw materials typically provide a 'snapshot' of the criticality of a certain material at one point in time by using static indicators both for supply risk and for the impacts of supply restrictions. While allowing for insights into the mechanisms behind the criticality of raw materials, these methods cannot account for dynamic changes in products and/or activities over time. In this paper we propose a conceptual framework intended to overcome these limitations by including the dynamic interactions between different possible demand and supply configurations. The framework integrates an agent-based behaviour model, where demand emerges from individual agent decisions and interaction, into a dynamic material flow model, representing the materials' stocks and flows. Within the framework, the environmental implications of substitution decisions are evaluated by applying life-cycle assessment methodology. The approach makes a first step towards a dynamic criticality assessment and will enhance the understanding of industrial substitution decisions and environmental implications related to critical metals. We discuss the potential and limitation of such an approach in contrast to state-of-the-art methods and how it might lead to criticality assessments tailored to the specific circumstances of single industrial sectors or individual companies.

Evaluating rare earth element availability: a case with revolutionary demand from clean technologies.

The future availability of rare earth elements (REEs) is of concern due to monopolistic supply conditions, environmentally unsustainable mining practices, and rapid demand growth. We present an evaluation of potential future demand scenarios for REEs with a focus on the issue of comining. Many assumptions were made to simplify the analysis, but the scenarios identify some key variables that could affect future rare earth markets and market behavior. Increased use of wind energy and electric vehicles are key elements of a more sustainable future. However, since present technologies for electric vehicles and wind turbines rely heavily on dysprosium (Dy) and neodymium (Nd), in rare-earth magnets, future adoption of these technologies may result in large and disproportionate increases in the demand for these two elements. For this study, upper and lower bound usage projections for REE in these applications were developed to evaluate the state of future REE supply availability. In the absence of efficient reuse and recycling or the development of technologies which use lower amounts of Dy and Nd, following a path consistent with stabilization of atmospheric CO(2) at 450 ppm may lead to an increase of more than 700% and 2600% for Nd and Dy, respectively, over the next 25 years if the present REE needs in automotive and wind applications are representative of future needs.