Sex and Racial Disparities in Proportionate Mortality of Premature Myocardial Infarction in the United States: 1999 to 2020.

BACKGROUND: The incidence of premature myocardial infarction (PMI) in women (<65 years and men <55 years) is increasing. We investigated proportionate mortality trends in PMI stratified by sex, race, and ethnicity. METHODS AND RESULTS: CDC WONDER (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Wide-Ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research) was queried to identify PMI deaths within the United States between 1999 and 2020, and trends in proportionate mortality of PMI were calculated using the Joinpoint regression analysis. We identified 3 017 826 acute myocardial infarction deaths, with 373 317 PMI deaths corresponding to proportionate mortality of 12.5% (men 12%, women 14%). On trend analysis, proportionate mortality of PMI increased from 10.5% in 1999 to 13.2% in 2020 (average annual percent change of 1.0 [0.8-1.2, P <0.01]) with a significant increase in women from 10% in 1999 to 17% in 2020 (average annual percent change of 2.4 [1.8-3.0, P <0.01]) and no significant change in men, 11% in 1999 to 10% in 2020 (average annual percent change of -0.2 [-0.7 to 0.3, P=0.4]). There was a significant increase in proportionate mortality in both Black and White populations, with no difference among American Indian/Alaska Native, Asian/Pacific Islander, or Hispanic people. American Indian/Alaska Natives had the highest PMI mortality with no significant change over time. CONCLUSIONS: Over the last 2 decades, there has been a significant increase in the proportionate mortality of PMI in women and the Black population, with persistently high PMI in American Indian/Alaska Natives, despite an overall downtrend in acute myocardial infarction-related mortality. Further research to determine the underlying cause of these differences in PMI mortality is required to improve the outcomes after acute myocardial infarction in these populations.

Years of life lost due to deaths of despair and COVID-19 in the United States in 2020: patterns of excess mortality by gender, race and ethnicity.

BACKGROUND: In 2020 COVID-19 was the third leading cause of death in the United States. Increases in suicides, overdoses, and alcohol related deaths were seen-which make up deaths of despair. How deaths of despair compare to COVID-19 across racial, ethnic, and gender subpopulations is relatively unknown. Preliminary studies showed inequalities in COVID-19 mortality for Black and Hispanic Americans in the pandemic's onset. This study analyzes the racial, ethnic and gender disparities in years of life lost due to COVID-19 and deaths of despair (suicide, overdose, and alcohol deaths) in 2020. METHODS: This cross-sectional study calculated and compared years of life lost (YLL) due to Deaths of Despair and COVID-19 by gender, race, and ethnicity. YLL was calculated using the CDC WONDER database to pull death records based on ICD-10 codes and the Social Security Administration Period Life Table was used to get estimated life expectancy for each subpopulation. RESULTS: In 2020, COVID-19 caused 350,831 deaths and 4,405,699 YLL. By contrast, deaths of despair contributed to 178,598 deaths and 6,045,819 YLL. Men had more deaths and YLL than women due to COVID-19 and deaths of despair. Among White Americans and more than one race identification both had greater burden of deaths of despair YLL than COVID-19 YLL. However, for all other racial categories (Native American/Alaskan Native, Asian, Black/African American, Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islander) COVID-19 caused more YLL than deaths of despair. Also, Hispanic or Latino persons had disproportionately higher mortality across all causes: COVID-19 and all deaths of despair causes. CONCLUSIONS: This study found greater deaths of despair mortality burden and differences in burden across gender, race, and ethnicity in 2020. The results indicate the need to bolster behavioral health research, support mental health workforce development and education, increase access to evidence-based substance use treatment, and address systemic inequities and social determinants of deaths of despair and COVID-19.

Contributors to Early Mortality in African Americans, the Jackson Heart Study.

Introduction: In recent years, premature "deaths of despair" (ie, due to alcohol, drug use, and suicide) among middle-aged White Americans have received increased attention in the popular press, yet there has been less discussion on what explains premature deaths among young African Americans. In this study, we examined factors related to deaths of despair (alcohol use, drug use, smoking) and contextual factors (perceived discrimination, socioeconomic status, neighborhood conditions) as predictors of premature deaths before the age of 65 years among African Americans. Methods: The Jackson Heart Study (JHS) is a longitudinal cohort study of African Americans in the Jackson, Mississippi, metropolitan statistical area. We included participants younger than 65 years at baseline (n=4000). Participant enrollment began in 2000 and data for these analyses were collected through 2019. To examine predictors of mortality, we calculated multivariable adjusted hazard ratios (HRs; 95% CI), using Cox proportional hazard models adjusted for age, sex, ideal cardiovascular health metrics, drug use, alcohol intake, functional status, cancer, chronic kidney disease, asthma, waist circumference, depression, income, education, health insurance status, perceived neighborhood safety, and exposure to lifetime discrimination. Results: There were 230 deaths in our cohort, which spanned from 2001-2019. After adjusting for all covariates, males (HR, 1.50; 95% CI, 1.11-2.03), participants who used drugs (HR, 1.53; 95% CI, 1.13-2.08), had a heavy alcohol drinking episode (HR, 1.71; 95% CI, 1.22-2.41), reported 0-1 ideal cardiovascular health metrics (HR, 1.78; 95% CI, 1.06-3.02), had cancer (HR, 2.38; 95% CI, 1.41-4.01), had poor functional status (HR, 1.68; 95% CI, 1.19-2.37), or with annual family income less than $25,000 (HR, 1.63; 95% CI, 1.02-2.62) were more likely to die before 65 years of age. Conclusions: In our large cohort of African American men and women, clinical predictors of premature death included poor cardiovascular health and cancer, and social predictors included low income, drug use, heavy alcohol use, and being a current smoker. Clinical and social interventions are warranted to prevent premature mortality in African Americans.

Steps per Day and All-Cause Mortality in Middle-aged Adults in the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults Study.

Importance: Steps per day is a meaningful metric for physical activity promotion in clinical and population settings. To guide promotion strategies of step goals, it is important to understand the association of steps with clinical end points, including mortality. Objective: To estimate the association of steps per day with premature (age 41-65 years) all-cause mortality among Black and White men and women. Design, Setting, and Participants: This prospective cohort study was part of the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) study. Participants were aged 38 to 50 years and wore an accelerometer from 2005 to 2006. Participants were followed for a mean (SD) of 10.8 (0.9) years. Data were analyzed in 2020 and 2021. Exposure: Daily steps volume, classified as low (<7000 steps/d), moderate (7000-9999 steps/d), and high (≥10 000 steps/d) and stepping intensity, classified as peak 30-minute stepping rate and time spent at 100 steps/min or more. Main Outcomes and Measures: All-cause mortality. Results: A total of 2110 participants from the CARDIA study were included, with a mean (SD) age of 45.2 (3.6) years, 1205 (57.1%) women, 888 (42.1%) Black participants, and a median (interquartile range [IQR]) of 9146 (7307-11 162) steps/d. During 22 845 person years of follow-up, 72 participants (3.4%) died. Using multivariable adjusted Cox proportional hazards models, compared with participants in the low step group, there was significantly lower risk of mortality in the moderate (hazard ratio [HR], 0.28 [95% CI, 0.15-0.54]; risk difference [RD], 53 [95% CI, 27-78] events per 1000 people) and high (HR, 0.45 [95% CI, 0.25-0.81]; RD, 41 [95% CI, 15-68] events per 1000 people) step groups. Compared with the low step group, moderate/high step rate was associated with reduced risk of mortality in Black participants (HR, 0.30 [95% CI, 0.14-0.63]) and in White participants (HR, 0.37 [95% CI, 0.17-0.81]). Similarly, compared with the low step group, moderate/high step rate was associated with reduce risk of mortality in women (HR, 0.28 [95% CI, 0.12-0.63]) and men (HR, 0.42 [95% CI, 0.20-0.88]). There was no significant association between peak 30-minute intensity (lowest vs highest tertile: HR, 0.98 [95% CI, 0.54-1.77]) or time at 100 steps/min or more (lowest vs highest tertile: HR, 1.38 [95% CI, 0.73-2.61]) with risk of mortality. Conclusions and Relevance: This cohort study found that among Black and White men and women in middle adulthood, participants who took approximately 7000 steps/d or more experienced lower mortality rates compared with participants taking fewer than 7000 steps/d. There was no association of step intensity with mortality.

Adverse Trends in Premature Cardiometabolic Mortality in the United States, 1999 to 2018.

Background Life expectancy in the United States has recently declined, in part attributable to premature cardiometabolic mortality. We characterized national trends in premature cardiometabolic mortality, overall, and by race-sex groups. Methods and Results Using death certificates from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Wide-Ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research, we quantified premature deaths (<65 years of age) from heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, and diabetes mellitus from 1999 to 2018. We calculated age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMRs) and years of potential life lost (YPLL) from each cardiometabolic cause occurring at <65 years of age. We used Joinpoint regression to identify an inflection point in overall cardiometabolic AAMR trends. Average annual percent change in AAMRs and YPLL was quantified before and after the identified inflection point. From 1999 to 2018, annual premature deaths from heart disease (117 880 to 128 832), cerebrovascular disease (18 765 to 20 565), and diabetes mellitus (16 553 to 24 758) as an underlying cause of death increased. By 2018, 19.7% of all heart disease deaths, 13.9% of all cerebrovascular disease deaths, and 29.1% of all diabetes mellitus deaths were premature. AAMRs and YPLL from heart disease and cerebrovascular disease declined until the inflection point identified in 2011, then remained unchanged through 2018. Conversely, AAMRs and YPLL from diabetes mellitus did not change through 2011, then increased through 2018. Black men and women had higher AAMRs and greater YPLL for each cardiometabolic cause compared with White men and women, respectively. Conclusions Over one-fifth of cardiometabolic deaths occurred at <65 years of age. Recent stagnation in cardiometabolic AAMRs and YPLL are compounded by persistent racial disparities.

Area deprivation amplifies racial inequities in premature mortality: Analysis of 242,667 deaths in Washington State, USA 2011-15.

Racial and socioeconomic inequalities in health are consistently reported, but less is known about the interplay between racial and deprivation-related inequities. We used geographically-localized data on all deaths recorded in Washington state 2011 to 2015 (n = 242,667 decedents) and multi-level regression models to examine premature (<65 years) mortality by race and neighborhood deprivation separately and in combination. White versus non-white inequities in premature mortality did not vary substantially with increasing levels of deprivation. However, most non-white races from deprived neighborhoods had odds of premature mortality between three and eight times that of more-affluent whites. These findings may reflect the compounding of disadvantage stemming from social and environmental risk factors.

Rural Counties With Majority Black Or Indigenous Populations Suffer The Highest Rates Of Premature Death In The US.

Despite well-documented health disparities by rurality and race/ethnicity, research investigating racial/ethnic health differences among US rural residents is limited. We used county-level data to measure and compare premature death rates in rural counties by each county's majority racial/ethnic group. Premature death rates were significantly higher in rural counties with a majority of non-Hispanic black or American Indian/Alaska Native (AI/AN) residents than in rural counties with a majority of non-Hispanic white residents. After we adjusted for community-level covariates, differences in premature death remained significant in counties with a majority of AI/AN residents but not those with a majority of non-Hispanic black residents. This study highlights the particular vulnerability of non-Hispanic black and AI/AN rural communities to high rates of premature mortality. Policies to improve rural health should focus on these racially diverse communities, addressing economic vitality and current and historical political context to mitigate health inequities and the harmful health effects of neglecting social determinants of health.

Decomposition of the US black/white inequality in premature mortality, 2010-2015: an observational study.

OBJECTIVE: Decompose the US black/white inequality in premature mortality into shared and group-specific risks to better inform health policy. SETTING: All 50 US states and the District of Columbia, 2010 to 2015. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 2.85 million non-Hispanic white and 762 639 non-Hispanic black US-resident decedents. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: The race-specific county-level relative risks for US blacks and whites, separately, and the risk ratio between groups. RESULTS: There is substantial geographic variation in premature mortality for both groups and the risk ratio between groups. After adjusting for median household income, county-level relative risks ranged from 0.46 to 2.04 (median: 1.03) for whites and from 0.31 to 3.28 (median: 1.15) for blacks. County-level risk ratios (black/white) ranged from 0.33 to 4.56 (median: 1.09). Half of the geographic variation in white premature mortality was shared with blacks, while only 15% of the geographic variation in black premature mortality was shared with whites. Non-Hispanic blacks experience substantial geographic variation in premature mortality that is not shared with whites. Moreover, black-specific geographic variation was not accounted for by median household income. CONCLUSION: Understanding geographic variation in mortality is crucial to informing health policy; however, estimating mortality is difficult at small spatial scales or for small subpopulations. Bayesian joint spatial models ameliorate many of these issues and can provide a nuanced decomposition of risk. Using premature mortality as an example application, we show that Bayesian joint spatial models are a powerful tool as researchers grapple with disentangling neighbourhood contextual effects and sociodemographic compositional effects of an area when evaluating health outcomes. Further research is necessary in fully understanding when and how these models can be applied in an epidemiological setting.

Inequality of household consumption and air pollution-related deaths in China.

Substantial quantities of air pollution and related health impacts are ultimately attributable to household consumption. However, how consumption pattern affects air pollution impacts remains unclear. Here we show, of the 1.08 (0.74-1.42) million premature deaths due to anthropogenic PM2.5 exposure in China in 2012, 20% are related to household direct emissions through fuel use and 24% are related to household indirect emissions embodied in consumption of goods and services. Income is strongly associated with air pollution-related deaths for urban residents in which health impacts are dominated by indirect emissions. Despite a larger and wealthier urban population, the number of deaths related to rural consumption is higher than that related to urban consumption, largely due to direct emissions from solid fuel combustion in rural China. Our results provide quantitative insight to consumption-based accounting of air pollution and related deaths and may inform more effective and equitable clean air policies in China.

[Changing trend regarding the burden on cerebrovascular diseases between 1990 and 2016 in China].

Objectives: To analyze the status quo and trends on the burden of cerebrovascular diseases between 1990 and 2016 in China. Methods: Morbidity mortality, years of life lost (YLL), years of lived with disability (YLD) and disability-adjusted life year (DALY) related to cerebrovascular diseases between 1990 and 2016, were collated and analyzed, according to the results of the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2016 (GBD 2016). Numbers on incidence and morbidity were used to assess the incidence of diseases, while the numbers of death and mortality were used to assess the death of diseases. Years of life lost due to premature death (YLL), years lost due to disability (YLD) and disability-adjusted life year (DALY) were used to assess the burden of diseases. Changing trend on the burden of cerebrovascular disease from 1990 to 2016 was also analyzed. Results: In 2016 and 1990, the numbers of new cases/morbidity and the number of deaths/mortality on cerebrovascular diseases in the country showed an upward trend. Rates regarding YLL and DALY on cerebrovascular diseases remained stable from 1990 to 2016, however, the YLD rate showed a slow upward trend. The changing rate of DALY was mainly influenced by YLL. Both DALY and YLL crude rates in males showed a slow upward trend, with the highest DALY rate appearing in the ≥70 age group. Disease burden on males was heavier than that of the females and in the 50-60 age group, which taking the largest proportion. As for the composition in DALY, YLL appearing much larger than YLD and slowly increasing. Analysis on the subtypes of diseases, proportions of YLL and DALY in hemorrhagic stroke were greater than that in ischemic stroke while the proportion of YLD in ischemic stroke was in the opposite. Conclusions: The burden of disease on cerebrovascular diseases remained heavy and the differences appeared in age, gender and subtypes of diseases. Our findings called for the adoption of measures including screening, intervention and rehabilitation to be taken on target populations, in order to reduce the burden on both individuals and the society.

Premature mortality projections in the USA through 2030: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Although life expectancy has been projected to increase across high-income countries, gains for the USA are anticipated to be among the smallest, and overall US death rates actually increased from 2014 to 2015, with divergence for specific US populations. Therefore, projecting future premature mortality is essential for clinical and public health service planning, curbing rapidly increasing causes of death, and sustaining progress in declining causes of death. We aimed to project premature mortality (here defined as deaths of individuals aged 25-64 years) trends through 2030, and to estimate the total number of projected deaths, the projected number of potential years of life lost due to premature mortality, and the effect of reducing projected accidental death rates by 2% per year. METHODS: We obtained death certificate data for the US population aged 25-64 years for 1990-2015 from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) National Center for Health Statistics. We obtained US mortality data for 2016 for non-American Indian or Alaska native groups from CDC WONDER; data for 2016 were not available for American Indians or Alaska natives. Our analysis focused on all-cause premature mortality and the commonest causes of premature death (cancer, heart disease, accidents, suicide, and chronic liver disease or cirrhosis) among white, black, Hispanic, Asian or Pacific islanders, and American Indian or Alaska native men and women. We estimated age-standardised premature mortality and corresponding annual percentage changes for 2017-30 by sex and race or ethnic origin by use of age-period-cohort forecasting models. We also did a sensitivity analysis projecting future mortality from cross-sectional mortality and a JoinPoint of the (log) period rate ratio curve. We calculated absolute death counts by use of corresponding age-specific and year-specific US census population projections, and estimated years of potential life lost. FINDINGS: During 2017-30, all-cause deaths are projected to increase among white women and American Indians or Alaska natives, resulting in 239 700 excess premature deaths relative to 2017 rates (a 10% increase). Mortality declines in white men and black, Hispanic, and Asian or Pacific islander men and women will result in 945 900 fewer deaths (a 14% reduction). Cancer mortality rates are projected to decline among white, black, Hispanic, and Asian or Pacific islander women and men, with the largest declines among black women (age-standardised premature mortality rate 2016: 104·5 deaths per 100 000 woman-years; 2030: 77·1 per 100 000 woman-years) and men (2016: 116·8 per 100 000 man-years; 2030: 81·6 per 100 000 man-years). Heart disease death rates are projected to increase in American Indian or Alaska native men (2015: 150·9 per 100 000 man-years; 2030: 175·9 per 100 000 man-years) and decline in other groups, albeit only slightly in white (2016: 35·6 per 100 000 woman-years; 2030: 31·1 per 100 000 woman-years) and American Indian or Alaska native women (2015: 64·4 per 100 000 woman-years; 2030: 62·8 per 100 000 woman-years). Accidental death rates are projected to increase in all US populations except Asian or Pacific islander women, and will increase most rapidly among white women (2030: 60·5 per 100 000 woman-years) and men (2030: 101·9 per 100 000 man-years) and American Indian or Alaska native women (2030: 97·5 per 100 000 woman-years) and men (2030: 298·7 per 100 000 man-years). Suicide rates are projected to increase for all groups, and chronic liver disease and cirrhosis deaths are projected to increase for all groups except black men. A 2% per year reduction in projected accidental deaths would eliminate an estimated 178 700 deaths during 2017-30. INTERPRETATION: To reduce future premature mortality, effective interventions are needed to address rapidly rising mortality rates due to accidents, suicides, and chronic liver disease and cirrhosis. FUNDING: National Cancer Institute Intramural Research Program.

Divergence and convergence in cause-specific premature adult mortality in Mexico and US Mexican Hispanics from 1995 to 2015: analyses of 4.9 million individual deaths.

Background: Mexicans and US Mexican Hispanics share modifiable determinants of premature mortality. We compared trends in mortality at ages 30-69 in Mexico and among US Mexican Hispanics from 1995 to 2015. Methods: We examined nationally representative statistics on 4.2 million Mexican and 0.7 million US deaths to examine cause-specific mortality. We used lung cancer indexed methods to estimate smoking-attributable deaths stratified by high and lower burden Mexican states. Results: In 1995-99, Mexican men had about 30% higher relative risk of death from all causes than US Mexican Hispanic men, and this difference nearly doubled to 58% by 2010-15. The divergence between Mexican and US Mexican Hispanic women over this time period was less marked. Among US Mexican Hispanics, declines in the risk of smoking-attributable death constituted about 25-30% of the declines in the overall risk of death. However, among Mexican men the declines in the risk of smoking-attributable deaths were offset by increases in causes of death not due to smoking. Homicide rates (mostly from guns) rose among men in Mexico from 2005 to 2010, but not among Mexican women or US Mexican Hispanic men or women. The probability at 30-69 years of death from cardiac disease diverged significantly between Mexicans and US Mexican Hispanics, reaching 10% and 5% for men, and 7% and 2% for women, respectively. Conclusions: Large differences in premature mortality between otherwise genetically and culturally similar groups arise from a few modifiable factors, most notably smoking, untreated diabetes and homicide.

Swing voting in the 2016 presidential election in counties where midlife mortality has been rising in white non-Hispanic Americans.

Understanding the effects of widespread disruption of the social fabric on public health outcomes can provide insight into the forces that drive major political realignment. Our objective was to estimate the association between increases in mortality in middle-aged non-Hispanic white adults from 1999 to 2005 to 2009-2015, health inequalities in life expectancy by income, and the surge in support for the Republican Party in pivotal US counties in the 2016 presidential election. We conducted a longitudinal ecological study in 2764 US counties from 1999 to 2016. Increases in mortality were measured using age-specific (45-54 years of age) all-cause mortality from 1999 to 2005 to 2009-2015 at the county level. Support for the Republican Party was measured as the party's vote share in the presidential election in 2016 adjusted for results in 2008 and 2012. We found a significant up-turn in mortality from 1999 to 2005 to 2009-2015 in counties where the Democratic Party won twice (2008 and 2012) but where the Republican Party won in 2016 (+10.7/100,000), as compared to those in which the Democratic Party won in 2016 (-15.7/100,000). An increase in mortality of 15.2/100,000 was associated with a significant (p < 0.001) 1% vote swing from the 2008-2012 average to 2016. We also found that counties with wider health inequalities in life expectancy were more likely to vote Republican in 2016, regardless of the previous voting patterns. Counties with worsening premature mortality in the last 15 years and wider health inequalities shifted votes toward the Republican Party presidential candidate. Further understanding of causes of unanticipated deterioration in health in the general population can inform social policy.

[Disease burden caused by violence in the Chinese population, in 1990 and 2013].

Objective: To analyze the disease burden of violence in the Chinese population, in 1990 and 2013. Methods: Indicators including mortality rate, years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLL), years lived with disability (YLD), and disability-adjusted of life years (DALY) related to violence, were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease 2013 and used to describe the burden of disease caused by violence in the Chinese population. Data related to corresponding parameters on disease burden of violence in 1990 and 2013 were described. Results: In 2013, a total of 20 500 people died of violent events, with the death rate as 1.44 per 100 000, in China. DALY caused by violence was 1.08 million person years in 2013. DALY caused by sharp violence was 0.47 million person years, with 0.09 million person years lost due to firearm violence. Disease burden caused by violence appeared higher in males than in females. When comparing with data from the 1990s, reductions were seen by 67.35% on the standardized death rate of violence, by 68.07% on the DALY attributable to violence, and by 70.47% on the standardized DALY rate attributable to violence, respectively, in 2013. Disease burden of violence among young adults and elderly was among the highest. When comparing with data from the 1990, DALY in 2013 decreased among all the age groups except for the 70-year-old showed an increase of 9.36%. The standardized DALY rate in 2013 showed a declining trend in all the age groups, mostly in the 0-4-year-old group. The standardized DALY rates caused by sharp violence or firearm decreased by75.11% and 83.20% in the 0-4-year-old group. Conclusion: In recent years, the disease burden caused by violence showed a decreasing trend but appeared higher in males however with the increase of DALY in the elder population.

The Epidemic of Despair Among White Americans: Trends in the Leading Causes of Premature Death, 1999-2015.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate trends in premature death rates by cause of death, age, race, and urbanization level in the United States. METHODS: We calculated cause-specific death rates using the Compressed Mortality File, National Center for Health Statistics data for adults aged 25 to 64 years in 2 time periods: 1999 to 2001 and 2013 to 2015. We defined 48 subpopulations by 10-year age groups, race/ethnicity, and county urbanization level (large urban, suburban, small or medium metropolitan, and rural). RESULTS: The age-adjusted premature death rates for all adults declined by 8% between 1999 to 2001 and 2013 to 2015, with decreases in 39 of the 48 subpopulations. Most decreases in death rates were attributable to HIV, cardiovascular disease, and cancer. All 9 subpopulations with increased death rates were non-Hispanic Whites, largely outside large urban areas. Most increases in death rates were attributable to suicide, poisoning, and liver disease. CONCLUSIONS: The unfavorable recent trends in premature death rate among non-Hispanic Whites outside large urban areas were primarily caused by self-destructive health behaviors likely related to underlying social and economic factors in these communities.

Air Pollution and Mortality in the Medicare Population.

BACKGROUND: Studies have shown that long-term exposure to air pollution increases mortality. However, evidence is limited for air-pollution levels below the most recent National Ambient Air Quality Standards. Previous studies involved predominantly urban populations and did not have the statistical power to estimate the health effects in underrepresented groups. METHODS: We constructed an open cohort of all Medicare beneficiaries (60,925,443 persons) in the continental United States from the years 2000 through 2012, with 460,310,521 person-years of follow-up. Annual averages of fine particulate matter (particles with a mass median aerodynamic diameter of less than 2.5 µm [PM2.5]) and ozone were estimated according to the ZIP Code of residence for each enrollee with the use of previously validated prediction models. We estimated the risk of death associated with exposure to increases of 10 µg per cubic meter for PM2.5 and 10 parts per billion (ppb) for ozone using a two-pollutant Cox proportional-hazards model that controlled for demographic characteristics, Medicaid eligibility, and area-level covariates. RESULTS: Increases of 10 µg per cubic meter in PM2.5 and of 10 ppb in ozone were associated with increases in all-cause mortality of 7.3% (95% confidence interval [CI], 7.1 to 7.5) and 1.1% (95% CI, 1.0 to 1.2), respectively. When the analysis was restricted to person-years with exposure to PM2.5 of less than 12 µg per cubic meter and ozone of less than 50 ppb, the same increases in PM2.5 and ozone were associated with increases in the risk of death of 13.6% (95% CI, 13.1 to 14.1) and 1.0% (95% CI, 0.9 to 1.1), respectively. For PM2.5, the risk of death among men, blacks, and people with Medicaid eligibility was higher than that in the rest of the population. CONCLUSIONS: In the entire Medicare population, there was significant evidence of adverse effects related to exposure to PM2.5 and ozone at concentrations below current national standards. This effect was most pronounced among self-identified racial minorities and people with low income. (Supported by the Health Effects Institute and others.).

Trends in premature mortality in the USA by sex, race, and ethnicity from 1999 to 2014: an analysis of death certificate data.

BACKGROUND: Reduction of premature mortality is a UN Sustainable Development Goal. Unlike other high-income countries, age-adjusted mortality in the USA plateaued in 2010 and increased slightly in 2015, possibly because of rising premature mortality. We aimed to analyse trends in mortality in the USA between 1999 and 2014 in people aged 25-64 years by age group, sex, and race and ethnicity, and to identify specific causes of death underlying the temporal trends. METHODS: For this analysis, we used cause-of-death and demographic data from death certificates from the US National Center for Health Statistics, and population estimates from the US Census Bureau. We estimated annual percentage changes in mortality using age-period-cohort models. Age-standardised excess deaths were estimated for 2000 to 2014 as observed deaths minus expected deaths (estimated from 1999 mortality rates). FINDINGS: Between 1999 and 2014, premature mortality increased in white individuals and in American Indians and Alaska Natives. Increases were highest in women and those aged 25-30 years. Among 30-year-olds, annual mortality increases were 2·3% (95% CI 2·1-2·4) for white women, 0·6% (0·5-0·7) for white men, and 4·3% (3·5-5·0) and 1·9% (1·3-2·5), respectively, for American Indian and Alaska Native women and men. These increases were mainly attributable to accidental deaths (primarily drug poisonings), chronic liver disease and cirrhosis, and suicide. Among individuals aged 25-49 years, an estimated 111 000 excess premature deaths occurred in white individuals and 6600 in American Indians and Alaska Natives during 2000-14. By contrast, premature mortality decreased substantially across all age groups in Hispanic individuals (up to 3·2% per year), black individuals (up to 3·9% per year), and Asians and Pacific Islanders (up to 2·6% per year), mainly because of declines in HIV, cancer, and heart disease deaths, resulting in an estimated 112 000 fewer deaths in Hispanic individuals, 311 000 fewer deaths in black individuals, and 34 000 fewer deaths in Asians and Pacific Islanders aged 25-64 years. During 2011-14, American Indians and Alaska Natives had the highest premature mortality, followed by black individuals. INTERPRETATION: Important public health successes, including HIV treatment and smoking cessation, have contributed to declining premature mortality in Hispanic individuals, black individuals, and Asians and Pacific Islanders. However, this progress has largely been negated in young and middle-aged (25-49 years) white individuals, and American Indians and Alaska Natives, primarily because of potentially avoidable causes such as drug poisonings, suicide, and chronic liver disease and cirrhosis. The magnitude of annual mortality increases in the USA is extremely unusual in high-income countries, and a rapid public health response is needed to avert further premature deaths. FUNDING: US National Cancer Institute Intramural Research Program.

Causes of death in childhood-onset Type 1 diabetes: long-term follow-up.

AIMS: To assess the causes of death and cause-specific standardized mortality ratios in two nationwide, population-based cohorts diagnosed with Type 1 diabetes during the periods 1973-1982 and 1989-2012, and to evaluate changes in causes of death during the follow-up period. METHODS: People with Type 1 diabetes who were aged < 15 years at diagnosis were identified in the Norwegian Childhood Diabetes Registry and followed from diagnosis until death, emigration or September 2013 (n = 7871). We assessed causes of death by linking data to the nationwide Cause of Death Registry and through a review committee that evaluated medical records, autopsy reports and death certificates. RESULTS: During a mean (range) follow-up of 16.8 (0-40.7) years, 241 individuals (3.1%) died, representing 132 143 person-years. The leading cause of death before the age of 30 years was acute complications (41/119, 34.5%). After the age of 30 years cardiovascular disease was predominant (41/122, 33.6%), although death attributable to acute complications was still important in this age group (22/122, 18.0%). A total of 5% of deaths were caused by 'dead-in-bed' syndrome. The standardized mortality ratio was elevated for cardiovascular disease [11.9 (95% CI 8.6-16.4)] and violent death [1.7 (95% CI 1.3-2.1)] in both sexes combined, but was elevated for suicide only in women [2.5 (95% CI 1.2-5.3)]. The risk of death from acute complications was approximately half in women compared with men [hazard ratio 0.43 (95% CI 0.25-0.76)], and did not change with more recent year of diagnosis [hazard ratio 1.02 (0.98-1.05)]. CONCLUSIONS: There was no change in mortality attributable to acute complications during the study period. To reduce premature mortality in people with childhood-onset diabetes focus should be on prevention of acute complications. Male gender implied increased risk.

Premature mortality resilience and wellbeing within urban Maori communities.

Maori (the indigenous peoples of Aotearoa New Zealand) experience of colonisation has negatively affected access to many of the resources (e.g. income, adequate housing) that enable health and well-being. However Maori have actively responded to the challenges they have faced. With the majority of the Maori population now living in urban settings this exploratory study aimed to understand factors contributing to mortality resilience despite exposure to socio-economic adversity with reference to Maori well-being. Resilient urban neighborhoods were defined as those that had lower than expected premature mortality among Maori residents despite high levels of socio-economic adversity. Selected resilience indicators theoretically linked to a Maori well-being framework were correlated with the novel Maori_RINZ resilience index. Of the selected indicators, only exposure to crime showed a clear gradient across the resilience index as predicted by the Maori well-being framework. Future research is needed as unclear trends for other indicators may reflect limitations in the indicators used or the need to develop a more comprehensive measure of well-being.