Single center clinical analysis of macrophage activation syndrome complicating juvenile rheumatic diseases.

BACKGROUND: Macrophage activation syndrome (MAS), an example of secondary hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis, is a potentially fatal complication of rheumatic diseases. We aimed to study the clinical and laboratory characteristics, treatment schemes, and outcomes of different rheumatic disorders associated with MAS in children. Early warning indicators of MAS have also been investigated to enable clinicians to make a prompt and accurate diagnosis. METHODS: Fifty-five patients with rheumatic diseases complicated by MAS were enrolled between January 2017 and December 2022. Clinical and laboratory data were collected before disease onset, at diagnosis, and after treatment with MAS, and data were compared between patients with systemic juvenile idiopathic arthritis (sJIA), Kawasaki disease (KD), and systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). A random forest model was established to show the importance score of each variable with a significant difference. RESULTS: Most (81.8%) instances of MAS occurred during the initial diagnosis of the underlying disease. Compared to the active stage of sJIA, the platelet count, erythrocyte sedimentation rate, and fibrinogen level in sJIA-MAS were significantly decreased, whereas ferritin, ferritin/erythrocyte sedimentation rate, aspartate aminotransferase, alanine aminotransferase, lactate dehydrogenase, and D-dimer levels were significantly increased. Ferritin level, ferritin/erythrocyte sedimentation rate, and platelet count had the greatest predictive value for sJIA-MAS. The level of IL-18 in the sJIA-MAS group was significantly higher than in the active sJIA group, whereas IL-6 levels were significantly lower. Most patients with MAS were treated with methylprednisolone pulse combined with cyclosporine, and no deaths occurred. CONCLUSIONS: Thrombocytopenia, ferritin levels, the ferritin/erythrocyte sedimentation rate, and elevated aspartate aminotransferase levels can predict the occurrence of MAS in patients with sJIA. Additionally, our analysis indicates that IL-18 plays an important role in the pathogenesis of MAS in sJIA-MAS.

The role of serum lipid in predicting coronary artery lesions and intravenous immunoglobulin resistance in Kawasaki disease: a cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the predictive value of the serum lipid profile for initial intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) resistance and coronary artery lesions (CALs) in patients with Kawasaki disease (KD). METHODS: This retrospective cohort study enrolled patients with KD and divided them into IVIG-responsive and IVIG-resistant groups. They were also stratified based on the presence of CALs (CALs and non-CALs groups). Clinical, echocardiographic and biochemical values were evaluated. A subgroup analysis was performed on complete and incomplete KD. Predictors of initial IVIG resistance and CALs were determined by multivariate logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: A total of 649 KD patients were enrolled: 151 had CALs and 76 had initial IVIG resistance. Low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) was significantly lower in the IVIG-resistant group than in the IVIG-responsive group. LDL-C and apolipoprotein (Apo) B were significantly lower in the CALs group compared with the non-CALs group. Multivariate logistic regression failed to identify the serum lipid profile (LDL-C, Apo A or Apo B) as an independent risk factor for initial IVIG resistance or CALs in KD patients. CONCLUSION: KD patients might have dyslipidaemia in the acute phase, but the serum lipid profile might not be suitable as a single predictor for initial IVIG resistance or CALs.

[Predictive indicators and risk model construction for coronary artery lesions in Kawasaki disease children over 5 years old]. / 5å²ä»¥ä¸Šå·å´Žç— å„¿ç«¥åˆå¹¶å† çŠ¶åŠ¨è„‰ç— å˜çš„é¢„æµ‹æŒ‡æ ‡ä¸Žé£Žé™©æ¨¡åž‹æž„å»º.

OBJECTIVES: To study predictive indicators for coronary artery lesions (CAL) and construct a risk prediction model for CAL in Kawasaki disease (KD) children over 5 years old. METHODS: A retrospective analysis of KD children over 5 years old at Wuhan Children's Hospital of Tongji Medical College of Huazhong University of Science and Technology from January 2018 to January 2023 was conducted. Among them, 47 cases were complicated with CAL, and 178 cases were not. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to explore predictive indicators for CAL in KD children over 5 years old and construct a risk prediction model. The receiver operating characteristic curve was used to evaluate the effectiveness of the prediction model. Finally, the Framingham risk scoring method was used to quantify the predictive indicators, calculate the contribution of each indicator to the prediction of CAL in KD children over 5 years old, and construct a risk prediction scoring model. RESULTS: The multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that the duration of fever before the initial intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) treatment (OR=1.374, 95%CI: 1.117-1.689), levels of hypersensitive C-reactive protein (hs-CRP; OR=1.008, 95%CI: 1.001-1.015), and serum ferritin levels (OR=1.002, 95%CI: 1.001-1.003) were predictive indicators for CAL in KD children over 5 years old. The optimal cutoff values for predicting CAL were: duration of fever before initial IVIG treatment of 6.5 days (AUC=0.654, 95%CI: 0.565-0.744), hs-CRP of 110.50 mg/L (AUC=0.686, 95%CI: 0.597-0.774), and ferritin of 313.62 mg/L (AUC=0.724, 95%CI: 0.642-0.805). According to the Framingham risk scoring method, the low, medium, and high-risk states of CAL occurrence were defined as probabilities of <10%, 10%-20%, and >20%, respectively, with corresponding scores of 0-4 points, 5-6 points, and ≥7 points. CONCLUSIONS: In KD children over 5 years old, those with a longer duration of fever before initial IVIG treatment, higher levels of hs-CRP, or elevated serum ferritin levels are more likely to develop CAL.

[Kawasaki disease versus Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome COVID-19 with Kawasaki disease phenotype. Single-center experience]. / Enfermedad de Kawasaki versus Síndrome Inflamatorio Multisistémico COVID 19 con fenotipo enfermedad de Kawasaki. Experiencia de un centro.

In pediatrics, a process called Pediatric Inflammatory Multisystem Syndrome (PIMS) associated with recent infection by SARS-CoV-2 virus has been observed. One of its variants presents similarities with Kawasaki disease (KD). OBJECTIVE: to compare the clinical presentation, laboratory testing, and evolution of KD with PIMS Kawasaki phenotype (PIMS-KD) in patients hospitalized before the pandemic, compared with the pandemic period. PATIENTS AND METHOD: Cross-sectional study in two groups of patients at the Hospital Exequiel González Cortés: typical KD (group 1) and PIMS-KD (group 2). Data on demographic, clinical, and biochemical details were collected, as well as echocardiogram, treatment, and evolution records. IgG and IgM serology for SARS-CoV-2 was performed in both groups. RESULTS: In the KD group and the PIMS-KD group, 20 and 33 patients were analyzed, respectively. There were differences in age, days of fever, count of leukocytes, lymphocytes, and platelets, erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), and hospital stay. In 25% of the KD group, there were alterations in the echocardiogram and, in the PIMS-K group, all patients received corticosteroids and 25 patients received intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG). In both groups, a favorable clinical evolution was observed, characterized by the absence of complications and mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Based on the data obtained in our study, the importance of the epidemiological link is emphasized as an essential factor in differentiating between both pathologies, highlighting the need to consider factors such as age, duration of fever, count of leukocytes, lymphocytes, and platelets, and degree of cardiac involvement, for a differential evaluation between patients with PIMS-KD versus KD.

Investigating the comparative effect of vitamin D level with the type of complications in Henoch Schönlein purpura and Kawasaki disease.

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES: Henoch Schönlein purpura (HSP) and Kawasaki disease (KD) are two main inflammatory diseases among childhood vasculitis. Considering the anti-inflammatory effects of 25-hydroxyvitamin D3, we decided to investigate the association of serum 25-hydroxy vitamin D3 level with the type and severity of these conditions. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The present study was performed as a historical cohort of 254 affected children with KD and HSP vasculitis. The required data were extracted, using a researcher-made questionnaire from patients' electronic file, and then they were analyzed after collecting information of the patients. RESULTS: In HSP group, 54% of participants were boys. Similarly, in KD group, boys were more affected than girls. The comparative 25-hydroxyvitamin vitamin D3 level in HSP patients with and without renal involvement (P=0.02), hematuria (P=0.14), and in two groups with and without heart disease, and also with and without coronary artery dilatation in KD patients (P<0.001) were significant. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS: The findings showed that insufficient level of vitamin D3 were significantly associated with the exacerbation of complications of both diseases, and therefore it seems that vitamin D deficiency can be an effective predictive factor of severity in HSP and KD patients.

Convergence and divergence in Kawasaki disease and multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children: results from the COVASAKI survey.

OBJECTIVES: To compare Kawasaki disease (KD) and multisystem inflammatory syndrome (MIS-C) in children. METHODS: Prospective collection of demographics, clinical and treatment data. Assessment of type 1 interferon (IFN) score, CXCL9, CXCL10, Interleukin (IL)18, IFNγ, IL6, IL1b at disease onset and at recovery. RESULTS: 87 patients (43 KD, 44 MIS-C) were included. Age was higher in MIS-C compared to KD group (mean 31±23 vs. 94±50 months, p<0.001). Extremities abnormalities (p=0.027), mucosal involvement (p<0.001), irritability (p<0.001), gallbladder hydrops (p=0.01) and lymphadenopathy (p=0.07) were more often recorded in KD. Neurological findings (p=0.002), gastrointestinal symptoms (p=0.013), respiratory involvement (p=0.019) and splenomegaly (p=0.026) were more frequently observed in MIS-C. Cardiac manifestations were higher in MIS-C (p<0.001), although coronary aneurisms were more frequent in KD (p=0.012). In the MIS-C group, the multiple linear regression analysis revealed that a higher IFN score at onset was related to myocardial disfunction (p<0.001), lymphadenopathy (p=<0.001) and need of ventilation (p=0.024). Both CXCL9 and CXCL10 were related to myocardial disfunction (p<0.001 and p=0.029). IL18 was positively associated to PICU admission (0.030) and ventilation (p=004) and negatively associated to lymphadenopathy (0.004). IFNγ values were related to neurological involvement and lymphadenopathy (p<0.001), IL1b to hearth involvement (0.006). A negative correlation has been observed between IL6 values, heart involvement (p=0.013) and PICU admission (p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The demographic and clinical differences between KD e MIS-C cohorts confirm previous reported data. The assessment of biomarkers levels at MIS-C onset could be useful to predict a more severe disease course and the development of cardiac complications.

The effect of vitamin D status on the occurrence of Kawasaki Disease: a meta-analysis.

AIM: The relationship between vitamin D status and Kawasaki Disease (KD), as well as coronary artery lesion (CAL), has yet to be established. METHODS: A meta-analysis was conducted to assess the correlation between vitamin D status and KD, as well as the impact of vitamin D status on the progression of KD into CAL. RESULTS: The meta-analysis revealed a consistent and significant association between serum 25(OH)D level and the occurrence KD (studies N = 22; z = -3.51, P < 0.001). Patients with KD had markedly lower levels of vitamin D than healthy controls (SMD: -1.30 ng/mL, 95%CI: -2.05 to -0.55 ng/mL). CONCLUSION: The study provided evidence supporting a significant association between lower serum vitamin D levels and the occurrence of KD, particularly within the Chinese population. However, the findings did not suggest a direct impact of vitamin D on the development of CAL in KD patients.

Protective role of forsythoside B in Kawasaki disease-induced cardiac injury: Inhibition of pyroptosis via the SIRT1-NF-κB-p65 signaling pathway.

Kawasaki disease (KD), an acute exanthematous febrile pediatric illness involving systemic non-specific inflammatory reactions in small- and medium-sized arteries, poses a significant risk of coronary artery and myocardial inflammatory injury. Developing new KD treatments with improved safety and fewer side-effects is highly desirable. Forsythoside B (FTS-B), extracted from the Forsythia suspensa plant, exerts anti-inflammatory activity by inhibiting NF-κB, which is regulated by SIRT1, the reduced expression of which is strongly associated with cardiovascular disease. However, it has yet to be established whether FTS-B influences KD-related inflammatory damage. In this study, we investigated the effects of FTS-B on inflammation in cellular and murine models of KD. Our findings revealed that KD is associated with cardiac dysfunction and inflammatory injury to myocardial and human coronary artery endothelial cells (HCAECs), resulting in a pyroptosis-feedback loop. Both cellular and KD models were characterized by reduced SIRT1 expression and increased NF-κB p65 expression. Contrastingly, the rates of pyroptosis in both murine model myocardial tissues and HCAECs were significantly alleviated in response to FTS-B treatment. Also in both models, we detected an increase of SIRT1 expression and a decrease in the expression of p65. Further examination of the protective mechanism of FTS-B using the SIRT1-specific inhibitor, EX 527, revealed that this inhibitor blocked the palliative effects of FTS-B on inflammatory injury-induced pyroptosis. These results highlight the potential utility of the SIRT1-NF-κB-p65 pathway as a therapeutic target for KD treatment and demonstrate that FTS-B can alleviate KD-induced cardiac and HCAEC inflammatory injury via inhibition of pyroptosis.

Multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children with Kawasaki disease-like manifestations in MMA.

Not required for Clinical Vignette.

Parapharyngeal and retropharyngeal infections in children: Kawasaki disease needs vigilance.

OBJECTIVE: Kawasaki Disease (KD) may mimic Parapharyngeal (PPI) and Retropharyngeal Infections (RPI), leading to misdiagnosis as Deep Neck Infections (DNIs). The treatment plans for the two diseases are different, and delayed treatment can lead to serious complications. Therefore, prompt diagnosis and management are necessary. This study was performed to evaluate the clinical features of KD mimicking DNIs and explore the treatment options. METHODS: Children with cellulitis or abscess in parapharyngeal or retropharyngeal space in neck CT were included in this study. The medical records of enrolled children were retrospectively reviewed. RESULTS: In total, 56 children were diagnosed with PPI or/and RPI. Twenty-two (39.3%) participants were eventually diagnosed with KD, and 34 (60.7%) were diagnosed with DNIs. Compared with the DNIs group, the KD group had a higher body temperature (p=0.007), and higher levels of AST (p=0.040), ALT (p=0.027), and ESR (p=0.030). Deep cervical cellulitis (p=0.005) were more common in the KD group. However, deep neck abscess often occurred in the DNIs group (p=0.002), with parapharyngeal abscess being the most common type of abscess (p=0.004). The KD mimicking DNIs cases did not respond to antibiotic treatment, but symptoms significantly improved after the use of Immunoglobulin (IVIG) and aspirin. CONCLUSION: Children with KD may exhibit retropharyngeal or parapharyngeal inflammation in the early stages. KD should be considered a differential diagnosis for children with DNIs, high fever, and no response to antibiotic therapy. Surgery in KD mimicking deep neck abscess requires caution. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: I.

Prediction of coronary artery lesions in children with Kawasaki syndrome based on machine learning.

OBJECTIVE: Kawasaki syndrome (KS) is an acute vasculitis that affects children < 5 years of age and leads to coronary artery lesions (CAL) in about 20-25% of untreated cases. Machine learning (ML) is a branch of artificial intelligence (AI) that integrates complex data sets on a large scale and uses huge data to predict future events. The purpose of the present study was to use ML to present the model for early risk assessment of CAL in children with KS by different algorithms. METHODS: A total of 158 children were enrolled from Women and Children's Hospital, Qingdao University, and divided into 70-30% as the training sets and the test sets for modeling and validation studies. There are several classifiers are constructed for models including the random forest (RF), the logistic regression (LR), and the eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost). Data preprocessing is analyzed before applying the classifiers to modeling. To avoid the problem of overfitting, the 5-fold cross validation method was used throughout all the data. RESULTS: The area under the curve (AUC) of the RF model was 0.925 according to the validation of the test set. The average accuracy was 0.930 (95% CI, 0.905 to 0.956). The AUC of the LG model was 0.888 and the average accuracy was 0.893 (95% CI, 0,837 to 0.950). The AUC of the XGBoost model was 0.879 and the average accuracy was 0.935 (95% CI, 0.891 to 0.980). CONCLUSION: The RF algorithm was used in the present study to construct a prediction model for CAL effectively, with an accuracy of 0.930 and AUC of 0.925. The novel model established by ML may help guide clinicians in the initial decision to make a more aggressive initial anti-inflammatory therapy. Due to the limitations of external validation and regional population characteristics, additional research is required to initiate a further application in the clinic.

The etiologies of Kawasaki disease.

Kawasaki disease (KD) is a systemic vasculitis that affects young children and can result in coronary artery aneurysms. The etiology is currently unknown, but new clues from the epidemiology of KD in Japan, the country of highest incidence, are beginning to shed light on what may trigger this acute inflammatory condition. Additional clues from the global changes in KD incidence during the COVID-19 pandemic, coupled with a new birth cohort study from Japan, point to the potential role of person-to-person transmission of an infectious agent. However, the rising incidence of KD in Japan, with coherent waves across the entire country, points to an increasing intensity of exposure that cannot be explained by person-to-person spread. This Review discusses new and historical observations that guide us toward a better understanding of KD etiology and explores hypotheses and interpretations that can provide direction for future investigations. Once the etiology of KD is determined, accurate diagnostic tests will become available, and new, less expensive, and more effective targeted therapies will likely be possible. Clearly, solving the mystery of the etiologies of KD remains a priority for pediatric research.

Inhibition of IL-1 Ameliorates Cardiac Dysfunction and Arrhythmias in a Murine Model of Kawasaki Disease.

BACKGROUND: Kawasaki disease (KD) is an acute febrile illness and systemic vasculitis often associated with cardiac sequelae, including arrhythmias. Abundant evidence indicates a central role for IL (interleukin)-1 and TNFα (tumor necrosis factor-alpha) signaling in the formation of arterial lesions in KD. We aimed to investigate the mechanisms underlying the development of electrophysiological abnormalities in a murine model of KD vasculitis. METHODS: Lactobacillus casei cell wall extract-induced KD vasculitis model was used to investigate the therapeutic efficacy of clinically relevant IL-1Ra (IL-1 receptor antagonist) and TNFα neutralization. Echocardiography, in vivo electrophysiology, whole-heart optical mapping, and imaging were performed. RESULTS: KD vasculitis was associated with impaired ejection fraction, increased ventricular tachycardia, prolonged repolarization, and slowed conduction velocity. Since our transcriptomic analysis of human patients showed elevated levels of both IL-1ß and TNFα, we asked whether either cytokine was linked to the development of myocardial dysfunction. Remarkably, only inhibition of IL-1 signaling by IL-1Ra but not TNFα neutralization was able to prevent changes in ejection fraction and arrhythmias, whereas both IL-1Ra and TNFα neutralization significantly improved vasculitis and heart vessel inflammation. The treatment of L casei cell wall extract-injected mice with IL-1Ra also restored conduction velocity and improved the organization of Cx43 (connexin 43) at the intercalated disk. In contrast, in mice with gain of function of the IL-1 signaling pathway, L casei cell wall extract induced spontaneous ventricular tachycardia and premature deaths. CONCLUSIONS: Our results characterize the electrophysiological abnormalities associated with L casei cell wall extract-induced KD and show that IL-1Ra is more effective in preventing KD-induced myocardial dysfunction and arrhythmias than anti-TNFα therapy. These findings support the advancement of clinical trials using IL-1Ra in patients with KD.

Risk factors and an early predictive model for Kawasaki disease shock syndrome in Chinese children.

BACKGROUND: Kawasaki disease shock syndrome (KDSS), though rare, has increased risk for cardiovascular complications. Early diagnosis is crucial to improve the prognosis of KDSS patients. Our study aimed to identify risk factors and construct a predictive model for KDSS. METHODS: This case-control study was conducted from June, 2015 to July, 2023 in two children's hospitals in China. Children initially diagnosed with KDSS and children with Kawasaki disease (KD) without shock were matched at a ratio of 1:4 by using the propensity score method. Laboratory results obtained prior to shock syndrome and treatment with intravenous immunoglobulin were recorded to predict the onset of KDSS. Univariable logistic regression and forward stepwise logistic regression were used to select significant and independent risk factors associated with KDSS. RESULTS: After matching by age and gender, 73 KDSS and 292 KD patients without shock formed the development dataset; 40 KDSS and 160 KD patients without shock formed the validation dataset. Interleukin-10 (IL-10) > reference value, platelet counts (PLT) < 260 × 109/L, C-reactive protein (CRP) > 80 mg/ml, procalcitonin (PCT) > 1ng/ml, and albumin (Alb) < 35 g/L were independent risk factors for KDSS. The nomogram model including the above five indicators had area under the curves (AUCs) of 0.91(95% CI: 0.87-0.94) and 0.90 (95% CI: 0.71-0.86) in the development and validation datasets, with a specificity and sensitivity of 80% and 86%, 66% and 77%, respectively. Calibration curves showed good predictive accuracy of the nomogram. Decision curve analyses revealed the predictive model has application value. CONCLUSIONS: This study identified IL-10, PLT, CRP, PCT and Alb as risk factors for KDSS. The nomogram model can effectively predict the occurrence of KDSS in Chinese children. It will facilitate pediatricians in early diagnosis, which is essential to the prevention of cardiovascular complications.

Single-Cell Transcriptome Reveals Potential Mechanisms for Coronary Artery Lesions in Kawasaki Disease.

BACKGROUND: Coronary artery lesions (CALs) are the most common and major complication of Kawasaki disease (KD) in developed countries. However, the underlying immunologic mechanisms of CAL development in KD remain unclear. METHODS: Here, we conducted single-cell transcriptome analyses of 212 210 peripheral blood mononuclear cells collected from a cross-sectional cohort of 16 children, including 4 patients with KD with CALs, 5 patients with KD without CALs, 4 healthy controls, and 3 febrile controls. RESULTS: KD altered the proportion of peripheral blood mononuclear cells, including an increasing trend in inflammatory cells (megakaryocytes and monocytes) and a decreasing trend in lymphocytes (eg, CD4+ T, CD8+ T, mucosal-associated invariant T, natural killer, and γδ T cells), highlighting the potential presence of lymphopenia phenomenon in KD. Our data indicated the presence of inflammatory cytokine storm in patients with KD with CALs, caused by systemic upregulation of TNFSF13B (tumor necrosis factor superfamily member 13b), CXCL16 (C-X-C motif chemokine ligand 16), TNFSF10 (tumor necrosis factor superfamily member 10), and IL1RN (interleukin 1 receptor antagonist), mainly produced by monocytes (especially for the Mono_CD14-CD16 cluster) and megakaryocytes. We also found that myeloid cells of patients with KD, particularly in those with CALs, might play a role in vascular injury (eg, increased MMP [matrix metalloproteinase] 9, MMP17, and MMP25) and immune cell recruitment. The immune landscape of patients with KD with CALs was featured by lower exhaustion levels in natural killer cells, a high cytotoxic state in the CD8_Pro cluster, and activation of the complement system in monocytes. Additionally, the activation of B cells was more pronounced in the early stage of KD. CONCLUSIONS: Collectively, this study provides a comprehensive understanding of the roles of various immune cells and inflammatory cytokine storms in the development of CALs in KD and offers a valuable resource for identifying novel therapeutic targets for patients with KD with CALs.

Thyroid hormone may predict treatment failure in Kawasaki disease.

BACKGROUND: In systemic inflammatory conditions, inflammatory cytokines can cause low thyroid hormone levels. There are no reports discussing the relation between thyroid hormone levels and response to treatment for Kawasaki disease. METHODS: We investigated 67 patients who underwent treatment in the acute phase of Kawasaki disease. We divided patients into two groups based on their response to initial intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) treatment: the responder group (n = 40), and the non-responder group (n = 27). The serum levels of the thyroid hormones free triiodothyronine (FT3), free thyroxine (FT4), and thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) were compared before and after treatment in all patients, and between responder and non-responder groups. RESULTS: The FT3, FT4, and TSH levels were low before the initial treatment and increased significantly after treatment (p < 0.05). The FT3, FT4, and TSH levels before treatment were significantly lower in the non-responder group than in the responder group (p < 0.05). Logistic regression analysis suggested that the addition of pre-treatment FT4 values to Gunma score was useful in predicting treatment failure. CONCLUSIONS: Thyroid hormone and TSH levels were lower in the non-responder group than in the responder group in the initial IVIG treatment for Kawasaki disease. This study suggests that Kawasaki disease in the acute phase is associated with low thyroid hormone levels and TSH. It is possible that these hormone levels predict response to the initial IVIG.

Risk factors and scores for prediction of coronary artery aneurysms in Kawasaki disease: a European monocentric study.

BACKGROUND: Japanese Kawasaki disease (KD) risk scores cannot be adopted in non-Japanese patients. In North American populations a baseline coronary artery Z-score > 2 and the Son score are associated with coronary artery aneurysms (CAAs) at 4 and 8 weeks from disease onset. In European populations, the Kawanet and Kawanet-echo scores are associated with intravenous immunoglobulin resistance. This study aims to evaluate the association between KD risk scores and baseline coronary artery Z-scores with CAAs at one, two, and six months in a European population. METHODS: Historical cohort study of all the children diagnosed with KD in a tertiary care hospital in Milan, Italy, between 1st January 2015 and 31st May 2021. Univariate and multivariate (adjusting for age and corticosteroid therapy) logistic regression analyses were used to study the association between the risk scores, a baseline Z-score ≥ 2 and ≥ 2.5 with CAAs. RESULTS: Eighty-nine patients were diagnosed with KD at our Centre, and 12 were excluded based on the exclusion criteria. We included 77 patients, 51 (66%) males, and 26 (34%) females, with a median age at presentation of 27 months (IQR 13-46). A baseline Z-score ≥ 2 was correlated with CAAs at one and two-month follow-ups (odds ratio (OR) 10, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2-72, and OR 18, CI 3-357) but not at six-month follow-up. The Son score showed an association with one and two-month follow-up CAAs (OR 3, CI 1.3-7, and OR 3, CI 1.3-8) but not with a six-month follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with a baseline Z-score ≥ 2 are at higher risk for CAAs in the long term. The Son score should be tested in larger European samples. Further studies should keep the observational periods longer than 8 weeks from KD onset.

A prediction model for coronary artery abnormalities in children with Kawasaki disease older than 5 years.

OBJECTIVE: Reliably prediction models for coronary artery abnormalities (CAA) in children aged >5 years with Kawasaki disease (KD) are still lacking. This study aimed to develop a nomogram model for predicting CAA at 4 to 8 weeks of illness in children with KD older than 5 years. METHODS: A total of 644 eligible children were randomly assigned to a training cohort (n = 450) and a validation cohort (n = 194). The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) analysis was used for optimal predictors selection, and multivariate logistic regression was used to develop a nomogram model based on the selected predictors. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), calibration curves, Hosmer-Lemeshow test, Brier score, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to assess model performance. RESULTS: Neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio, intravenous immunoglobulin resistance, and maximum baseline z-score ≥ 2.5 were identified by LASSO as significant predictors. The model incorporating these variables showed good discrimination and calibration capacities in both training and validation cohorts. The AUC of the training cohort and validation cohort were 0.854 and 0.850, respectively. The DCA confirmed the clinical usefulness of the nomogram model. CONCLUSIONS: A novel nomogram model was established to accurately assess the risk of CAA at 4-8 weeks of onset among KD children older than 5 years, which may aid clinical decision-making.