Global mining risk footprint of critical metals necessary for low-carbon technologies: the case of neodymium, cobalt, and platinum in Japan.

Meeting the 2-degree global warming target requires wide adoption of low-carbon energy technologies. Many such technologies rely on the use of precious metals, however, increasing the dependence of national economies on these resources. Among such metals, those with supply security concerns are referred to as critical metals. Using the Policy Potential Index developed by the Fraser Institute, this study developed a new footprint indicator, the mining risk footprint (MRF), to quantify the mining risk directly and indirectly affecting a national economy through its consumption of critical metals. We formulated the MRF as a product of the material footprint (MF) of the consuming country and the mining risks of the countries where the materials are mined. A case study was conducted for the 2005 Japanese economy to determine the MF and MRF for three critical metals essential for emerging energy technologies: neodymium, cobalt and platinum. The results indicate that in 2005 the MFs generated by Japanese domestic final demand, that is, the consumption-based metal output of Japan, were 1.0 × 10(3) t for neodymium, 9.4 × 10(3) t for cobalt, and 2.1 × 10 t for platinum. Export demand contributes most to the MF, accounting for 3.0 × 10(3) t, 1.3 × 10(5) t, and 3.1 × 10 t, respectively. The MRFs of Japanese total final demand (domestic plus export) were calculated to be 1.7 × 10 points for neodymium, 4.5 × 10(-2) points for cobalt, and 5.6 points for platinum, implying that the Japanese economy is incurring a high mining risk through its use of neodymium. This country's MRFs are all dominated by export demand. The paper concludes by discussing the policy implications and future research directions for measuring the MFs and MRFs of critical metals. For countries poorly endowed with mineral resources, adopting low-carbon energy technologies may imply a shifting of risk from carbon resources to other natural resources, in particular critical metals, and a trade-off between increased mining risk and deployment of such technologies. Our analysis constitutes a first step toward quantifying and managing the risks associated with natural resource mining.

Recycling as a strategy against rare earth element criticality: a systemic evaluation of the potential yield of NdFeB magnet recycling.

End-of-life recycling is promoted by OECD countries as a promising strategy in the current global supply crisis surrounding rare earth elements (REEs) so that dependence on China, the dominant supplier, can be decreased. So far the feasibility and potential yield of REE recycling has not been systematically evaluated. This paper estimates the annual waste flows of neodymium and dysprosium from permanent magnets, the main deployment of these critical REEs, during the 2011-2030 period. The estimates focus on three key permanent magnet waste flows: wind turbines, hybrid and electric vehicles, and hard disk drives (HDDs) in personal computers (PCs). This is a good indication of the end-of-life recycling of neodymium and dysprosium maximum potential yield. Results show that for some time to come, waste flows from permanent magnets will remain small relative to the rapidly growing global REE demand. Policymakers therefore need to be aware that during the next decade recycling is unlikely to substantially contribute to global REE supply security. In the long term, waste flows will increase sharply and will meet a substantial part of the total demand for these metals. Future REE recycling efforts should, therefore, focus on the development of recycling technology and infrastructure.