A nomogram predicting pneumonia after cardiac surgery: a retrospective modeling study.

BACKGROUND: Postoperative pneumonia (POP) is the most prevalent of all nosocomial infections in patients who underwent cardiac surgery. The aim of this study was to identify independent risk factors for pneumonia after cardiac surgery, from which we constructed a nomogram for prediction. METHODS: The clinical data of patients admitted to the Department of Cardiothoracic Surgery of Nanjing Drum Tower Hospital from October 2020 to September 2021 who underwent cardiac surgery were retrospectively analyzed, and the patients were divided into two groups according to whether they had POP: POP group (n=105) and non-POP group (n=1083). Preoperative, intraoperative, and postoperative indicators were collected and analyzed. Logistic regression was used to identify independent risk factors for POP in patients who underwent cardiac surgery. We constructed a nomogram based on these independent risk factors. Model discrimination was assessed via area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), and calibration was assessed via calibration plot. RESULTS: A total of 105 events occurred in the 1188 cases. Age (>55 years) (OR: 1.83, P=0.0225), preoperative malnutrition (OR: 3.71, P<0.0001), diabetes mellitus(OR: 2.33, P=0.0036), CPB time (Cardiopulmonary Bypass Time) > 135 min (OR: 2.80, P<0.0001), moderate to severe ARDS (Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome )(OR: 1.79, P=0.0148), use of ECMO or IABP or CRRT (ECMO: Extra Corporeal Membrane Oxygenation; IABP: Intra-Aortic Balloon Pump; CRRT: Continuous Renal Replacement Therapy )(OR: 2.60, P=0.0057) and MV( Mechanical Ventilation )> 20 hours (OR: 3.11, P<0.0001) were independent risk factors for POP. Based on those independent risk factors, we constructed a simple nomogram with an AUC of 0.82. Calibration plots showed good agreement between predicted probabilities and actual probabilities. CONCLUSION: We constructed a facile nomogram for predicting pneumonia after cardiac surgery with good discrimination and calibration. The model has excellent clinical applicability and can be used to identify and adjust modifiable risk factors to reduce the incidence of POP as well as patient mortality.

Nomogram using intratumoral and peritumoral radiomics for the preoperative prediction of visceral pleural invasion in clinical stage IA lung adenocarcinoma.

BACKGROUND: Accurate prediction of visceral pleural invasion (VPI) in lung adenocarcinoma before operation can provide guidance and help for surgical operation and postoperative treatment. We investigate the value of intratumoral and peritumoral radiomics nomograms for preoperatively predicting the status of VPI in patients diagnosed with clinical stage IA lung adenocarcinoma. METHODS: A total of 404 patients from our hospital were randomly assigned to a training set (n = 283) and an internal validation set (n = 121) using a 7:3 ratio, while 81 patients from two other hospitals constituted the external validation set. We extracted 1218 CT-based radiomics features from the gross tumor volume (GTV) as well as the gross peritumoral tumor volume (GPTV5, 10, 15), respectively, and constructed radiomic models. Additionally, we developed a nomogram based on relevant CT features and the radscore derived from the optimal radiomics model. RESULTS: The GPTV10 radiomics model exhibited superior predictive performance compared to GTV, GPTV5, and GPTV15, with area under the curve (AUC) values of 0.855, 0.842, and 0.842 in the three respective sets. In the clinical model, the solid component size, pleural indentation, solid attachment, and vascular convergence sign were identified as independent risk factors among the CT features. The predictive performance of the nomogram, which incorporated relevant CT features and the GPTV10-radscore, outperformed both the radiomics model and clinical model alone, with AUC values of 0.894, 0.828, and 0.876 in the three respective sets. CONCLUSIONS: The nomogram, integrating radiomics features and CT morphological features, exhibits good performance in predicting VPI status in lung adenocarcinoma.

Development and validation of a prognostic model for assessing long COVID risk following Omicron wave-a large population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Long coronavirus disease (COVID) after COVID-19 infection is continuously threatening the health of people all over the world. Early prediction of the risk of Long COVID in hospitalized patients will help clinical management of COVID-19, but there is still no reliable and effective prediction model. METHODS: A total of 1905 hospitalized patients with COVID-19 infection were included in this study, and their Long COVID status was followed up 4-8 weeks after discharge. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression analysis were used to determine the risk factors for Long COVID. Patients were randomly divided into a training cohort (70%) and a validation cohort (30%), and factors for constructing the model were screened using Lasso regression in the training cohort. Visualize the Long COVID risk prediction model using nomogram. Evaluate the performance of the model in the training and validation cohort using the area under the curve (AUC), calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA). RESULTS: A total of 657 patients (34.5%) reported that they had symptoms of long COVID. The most common symptoms were fatigue or muscle weakness (16.8%), followed by sleep difficulties (11.1%) and cough (9.5%). The risk prediction nomogram of age, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, vaccination status, procalcitonin, leukocytes, lymphocytes, interleukin-6 and D-dimer were included for early identification of high-risk patients with Long COVID. AUCs of the model in the training cohort and validation cohort are 0.762 and 0.713, respectively, demonstrating relatively high discrimination of the model. The calibration curve further substantiated the proximity of the nomogram's predicted outcomes to the ideal curve, the consistency between the predicted outcomes and the actual outcomes, and the potential benefits for all patients as indicated by DCA. This observation was further validated in the validation cohort. CONCLUSIONS: We established a nomogram model to predict the long COVID risk of hospitalized patients with COVID-19, and proved its relatively good predictive performance. This model is helpful for the clinical management of long COVID.

Development and validation of a preoperative CT­based radiomics nomogram to differentiate tuberculosis granulomas from lung adenocarcinomas: an external validation study.

BACKGROUND: An accurate and non-invasive approach is urgently needed to distinguish tuberculosis granulomas from lung adenocarcinomas. This study aimed to develop and validate a nomogram based on contrast enhanced-compute tomography (CE-CT) to preoperatively differentiate tuberculosis granuloma from lung adenocarcinoma appearing as solitary pulmonary solid nodules (SPSN). METHODS: This retrospective study analyzed 143 patients with lung adenocarcinoma (mean age: 62.4 ± 6.5 years; 54.5% female) and 137 patients with tuberculosis granulomas (mean age: 54.7 ± 8.2 years; 29.2% female) from two centers between March 2015 and June 2020. The training and internal validation cohorts included 161 and 69 patients (7:3 ratio) from center No.1, respectively. The external testing cohort included 50 patients from center No.2. Clinical factors and conventional radiological characteristics were analyzed to build independent predictors. Radiomics features were extracted from each CT-volume of interest (VOI). Feature selection was performed using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis, as well as the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) method. A clinical model was constructed with clinical factors and radiological findings. Individualized radiomics nomograms incorporating clinical data and radiomics signature were established to validate the clinical usefulness. The diagnostic performance was assessed using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). RESULTS: One clinical factor (CA125), one radiological characteristic (enhanced-CT value) and nine radiomics features were found to be independent predictors, which were used to establish the radiomics nomogram. The nomogram demonstrated better diagnostic efficacy than any single model, with respective AUC, accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity of 0.903, 0.857, 0.901, and 0.807 in the training cohort; 0.933, 0.884, 0.893, and 0.892 in the internal validation cohort; 0.914, 0.800, 0.937, and 0.735 in the external test cohort. The calibration curve showed a good agreement between prediction probability and actual clinical findings. CONCLUSION: The nomogram incorporating clinical factors, radiological characteristics and radiomics signature provides additional value in distinguishing tuberculosis granuloma from lung adenocarcinoma in patients with a SPSN, potentially serving as a robust diagnostic strategy in clinical practice.

Risk factor analysis and nomogram for predicting poor symptom control in smoking asthmatics.

BACKGROUND: Smoking induces and modifies the airway immune response, accelerating the decline of asthmatics' lung function and severely affecting asthma symptoms' control level. To assess the prognosis of asthmatics who smoke and to provide reasonable recommendations for treatment, we constructed a nomogram prediction model. METHODS: General and clinical data were collected from April to September 2021 from smoking asthmatics aged ≥14 years attending the People's Hospital of Zhengzhou University. Patients were followed up regularly by telephone or outpatient visits, and their medication and follow-up visits were recorded during the 6-months follow-up visit, as well as their asthma control levels after 6 months (asthma control questionnaire-5, ACQ-5). The study employed R4.2.2 software to conduct univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses to identify independent risk factors for 'poorly controlled asthma' (ACQ>0.75) as the outcome variable. Subsequently, a nomogram prediction model was constructed. Internal validation was used to test the reproducibility of the model. The model efficacy was evaluated using the consistency index (C-index), receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration curve, and decision curve. RESULTS: Invitations were sent to 231 asthmatics who smoked. A total of 202 participants responded, resulting in a final total of 190 participants included in the model development. The nomogram established five independent risk factors (P<0.05): FEV1%pred, smoking index (100), comorbidities situations, medication regimen, and good or poor medication adherence. The area under curve (AUC) of the modeling set was 0.824(95%CI 0.765-0.884), suggesting that the nomogram has a high ability to distinguish poor asthma control in smoking asthmatics after 6 months. The calibration curve showed a C-index of 0.824 for the modeling set and a C-index of 0.792 for the self-validation set formed by 1000 bootstrap sampling, which means that the prediction probability of the model was consistent with reality. Decision curve analysis (DCA) of the nomogram revealed that the net benefit was higher when the risk threshold probability for poor asthma control was 4.5 - 93.9%. CONCLUSIONS: FEV1%pred, smoking index (100), comorbidities situations, medication regimen, and medication adherence were identified as independent risk factors for poor asthma control after 6 months in smoking asthmatics. The nomogram established based on these findings can effectively predict relevant risk and provide clinicians with a reference to identify the poorly controlled population with smoking asthma as early as possible, and to select a better therapeutic regimen. Meanwhile, it can effectively improve the medication adherence and the degree of attention to complications in smoking asthma patients.

Exploration and prognostic analysis of two types of high-risk ovarian cancers: clear cell vs. serous carcinoma: a population-based study.

BACKGROUND: Ovarian clear cell carcinoma (OCCC) is a rare pathological histotype in ovarian cancer, while the survival rate of advanced OCCC (Stage III-IV) is substantially lower than that of the advanced serous ovarian cancer (OSC), which is the most common histotype. The goal of this study was to identify high-risk OCCC by comparing OSC and OCCC, with investigating potential risk and prognosis markers. METHODS: Patients diagnosed with ovarian cancer from 2009 to 2018 were identified from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program. Logistic and Cox regression models were used to identify risk and prognostic factors in high-risk OCCC patients. Cancer-specific survival (CSS) and overall survival (OS) were assessed using Kaplan-Meier curves. Furthermore, Cox analysis was employed to build a nomogram model. The performance evaluation results were displayed using the C-index, calibration plots, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA). Immunohistochemically approach was used to identify the expression of the novel target (GPC3). RESULTS: In the Cox analysis for advanced OCCC, age (45-65 years), tumor numbers (total number of in situ/malignant tumors for patient), T3-stage, bilateral tumors, and liver metastases could be defined as prognostic variables. Nomogram showed good predictive power and clinical practicality. Compared with OSC, liver metastases had a stronger impact on the prognosis of patients with OCCC. T3-stage, positive distant lymph nodes metastases, and lung metastases were risk factors for developing liver metastases. Chemotherapy was an independent prognostic factor for patient with advanced OCCC, but had no effect on CSS in patients with liver metastases (p = 0.0656), while surgery was significantly related with better CSS in these patients (p < 0.0001) (p = 0.0041). GPC3 expression was detected in all tissue sections, and GPC3 staining was predominantly found in the cytoplasm and membranes. CONCLUSION: Advanced OCCC and OCCC with liver metastases are two types of high-risk OCCC. The constructed nomogram exhibited a satisfactory survival prediction for patients with advanced OCCC. GPC3 immunohistochemistry is expected to accumulate preclinical evidence to support the inclusion of GPC3 in OCCC targeted therapy.

Unraveling the unfolded protein response signature: implications for tumor immune microenvironment heterogeneity and clinical prognosis in stomach cancer.

BACKGROUND: Stomach cancer is a leading cause of cancer-related deaths globally due to its high grade and poor response to treatment. Understanding the molecular network driving the rapid progression of stomach cancer is crucial for improving patient outcomes. METHODS: This study aimed to investigate the role of unfolded protein response (UPR) related genes in stomach cancer and their potential as prognostic biomarkers. RNA expression data and clinical follow-up information were obtained from the TCGA and GEO databases. An unsupervised clustering algorithm was used to identify UPR genomic subtypes in stomach cancer. Functional enrichment analysis, immune landscape analysis, and chemotherapy benefit prediction were conducted for each subtype. A prognostic model based on UPR-related genes was developed and validated using LASSO-Cox regression, and a multivariate nomogram was created. Key gene expression analyses in pan-cancer and in vitro experiments were performed to further investigate the role of the identified genes in cancer progression. RESULTS: A total of 375 stomach cancer patients were included in this study. Analysis of 113 UPR-related genes revealed their close functional correlation and significant enrichment in protein modification, transport, and RNA degradation pathways. Unsupervised clustering identified two molecular subtypes with significant differences in prognosis and gene expression profiles. Immune landscape analysis showed that UPR may influence the composition of the tumor immune microenvironment. Chemotherapy sensitivity analysis indicated that patients in the C2 molecular subtype were more responsive to chemotherapy compared to those in the C1 molecular subtype. A prognostic signature consisting of seven UPR-related genes was constructed and validated, and an independent prognostic nomogram was developed. The gene IGFBP1, which had the highest weight coefficient in the prognostic signature, was found to promote the malignant phenotype of stomach cancer cells, suggesting its potential as a therapeutic target. CONCLUSIONS: The study developed a UPR-related gene classifier and risk signature for predicting survival in stomach cancer, identifying IGFBP1 as a key factor promoting the disease's malignancy and a potential therapeutic target. IGFBP1's role in enhancing cancer cell adaptation to endoplasmic reticulum stress suggests its importance in stomach cancer prognosis and treatment.

Significance of NKX2-1 as a biomarker for clinical prognosis, immune infiltration, and drug therapy in lung squamous cell carcinoma.

Background: This study was performed to determine the biological processes in which NKX2-1 is involved and thus its role in the development of lung squamous cell carcinoma (LUSC) toward improving the prognosis and treatment of LUSC. Methods: Raw RNA sequencing (RNA-seq) data of LUSC from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) were used in bioinformatics analysis to characterize NKX2-1 expression levels in tumor and normal tissues. Survival analysis of Kaplan-Meier curve, the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and a nomogram were used to analyze the prognosis value of NKX2-1 for LUSC in terms of overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS). Then, differentially expressed genes (DEGs) were identified, and Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG), Gene Ontology (GO), and Gene Set Enrichment Analysis (GSEA) were used to clarify the biological mechanisms potentially involved in the development of LUSC. Moreover, the correlation between the NKX2-1 expression level and tumor mutation burden (TMB), tumor microenvironment (TME), and immune cell infiltration revealed that NKX2-1 participates in the development of LUSC. Finally, we studied the effects of NKX2-1 on drug therapy. To validate the protein and gene expression levels of NKX2-1 in LUSC, we employed immunohistochemistry(IHC) datasets, The Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) database, and qRT-PCR analysis. Results: NKX2-1 expression levels were significantly lower in LUSC than in normal lung tissue. It significantly differed in gender, stage and N classification. The survival analysis revealed that high expression of NKX2-1 had shorter OS and PFS in LUSC. The multivariate Cox regression hazard model showed the NKX2-1 expression as an independent prognostic factor. Then, the nomogram predicted LUSC prognosis. There are 51 upregulated DEGs and 49 downregulated DEGs in the NKX2-1 high-level groups. GO, KEGG and GSEA analysis revealed that DEGs were enriched in cell cycle and DNA replication.The TME results show that NKX2-1 expression was positively associated with mast cells resting, neutrophils, monocytes, T cells CD4 memory resting, and M2 macrophages but negatively associated with M1 macrophages. The TMB correlated negatively with NKX2-1 expression. The pharmacotherapy had great sensitivity in the NKX2-1 low-level group, the immunotherapy is no significant difference in the NKX2-1 low-level and high-level groups. The analysis of GEO data demonstrated concurrence with TCGA results. IHC revealed NKX2-1 protein expression in tumor tissues of both LUAD and LUSC. Meanwhile qRT-PCR analysis indicated a significantly lower NKX2-1 expression level in LUSC compared to LUAD. These qRT-PCR findings were consistent with co-expression analysis of NKX2-1. Conclusion: We conclude that NKX2-1 is a potential biomarker for prognosis and treatment LUSC. A new insights of NKX2-1 in LUSC is still needed further research.

A novel fatty acid metabolism-related signature identifies MUC4 as a novel therapy target for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma.

Fatty acid metabolism has been identified as an emerging hallmark of cancer, which was closely associated with cancer prognosis. Whether fatty acid metabolism-related genes (FMGs) signature play a more crucial role in biological behavior of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) prognosis remains unknown. Thus, we aimed to identify a reliable FMGs signature for assisting treatment decisions and prognosis evaluation of ESCC. In the present study, we conducted consensus clustering analysis on 259 publicly available ESCC samples. The clinical information was downloaded from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA, 80 ESCC samples) and Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) database (GSE53625, 179 ESCC samples). A consensus clustering arithmetic was used to determine the FMGs molecular subtypes, and survival outcomes and immune features were evaluated among the different subtypes. Kaplan-Meier analysis and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) was applied to evaluate the reliability of the risk model in training cohort, validation cohort and all cohorts. A nomogram to predict patients' 1-year, 3-year and 5-year survival rate was also studied. Finally, CCK-8 assay, wound healing assay, and transwell assay were implemented to evaluate the inherent mechanisms of FMGs for tumorigenesis in ESCC. Two subtypes were identified by consensus clustering, of which cluster 2 is preferentially associated with poor prognosis, lower immune cell infiltration. A fatty acid (FA) metabolism-related risk model containing eight genes (FZD10, TACSTD2, MUC4, PDLIM1, PRSS12, BAALC, DNAJA2 and ALOX12B) was established. High-risk group patients displayed worse survival, higher stromal, immune and ESTIMATE scores than in the low-risk group. Moreover, a nomogram revealed good predictive ability of clinical outcomes in ESCC patients. The results of qRT-PCR analysis revealed that the MUC4 and BAALC had high expression level, and FZD10, PDLIM1, TACSTD2, ALOX12B had low expression level in ESCC cells. In vitro, silencing MUC4 remarkably inhibited ESCC cell proliferation, invasion and migration. Our study fills the gap of FMGs signature in predicting the prognosis of ESCC patients. These findings revealed that cluster subtypes and risk model of FMGs had effects on survival prediction, and were expected to be the potential promising targets for ESCC.

Development and validation of radiomics nomogram for metastatic status of epithelial ovarian cancer.

To develop and validate an enhanced CT-based radiomics nomogram for evaluating preoperative metastasis risk of epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC). One hundred and nine patients with histologically confirmed EOC were retrospectively enrolled. The volume of interest (VOI) was delineated in preoperative enhanced CT images, and 851 radiomics features were extracted. The radiomics features were selected by the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), and the rad-score was calculated using the formula of the radiomics label. A clinical model, radiomics model, and combined model were constructed using the logistic regression classification algorithm. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to evaluate the diagnostic performance of the models. Seventy-five patients (68.8%) were histologically confirmed to have metastasis. Eleven optimal radiomics features were retained by the LASSO algorithm to develop the radiomic model. The combined model for evaluating metastasis of EOC achieved area under the curve (AUC) values of 0.929 (95% CI 0.8593-0.9996) in the training cohort and 0.909 (95% CI 0.7921-1.0000) in the test cohort. To facilitate clinical use, a radiomic nomogram was built by combining the clinical characteristics with rad-score. The DCA indicated that the nomogram had the most significant net benefit when the threshold probability exceeded 15%, surpassing the benefits of both the treat-all and treat-none strategies. Compared with clinical model and radiomics model, the radiomics nomogram has the best diagnostic performance in evaluating EOC metastasis. The nomogram is a useful and convenient tool for clinical doctors to develop personalized treatment plans for EOC patients.

Developing a nomogram based on SEER database for predicting prognosis in choroid plexus tumors.

Choroid plexus tumors (CPT) are rare and highly vascularized neoplasms that have three histologically confirmed diagnoses, including choroid plexus papilloma, atypical choroid plexus papilloma, and choroid plexus carcinoma (CPC). This study aimed to determine the epidemiology and survival of patients with CPTs and develop a nomogram to quantify the prognosis of the patients with CPT. Data of 808 patients who were diagnosed as CPT between 2000 and 2020 was obtained from the surveillance, epidemiology, and end results database. Descriptive analysis was used to assess the distribution and tumor-related characteristics of the patients with CPT. Independent prognostic factors for patients with CPT were identified by univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis. The nomogram was established and evaluated by receiver operating characteristic curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA), calibration curves. The independent prognostic factors for patients with CPT are age, tumor size, surgery, chemotherapy, tumor number, pathologies, and race. For the prognostic nomogram, the area under the curve (AUC) of 60-, 120-, and 180-months were 0.855, 0.869 and 0.857 in the training set and 0.836, 0.864 and 0.922 in the test set. The DCA and calibration curve indicated the good performance of the nomogram. Patients with CPTs can be diagnosed at any age. Among the three histopathological tumors, patients with CPC had the worst prognosis. The nomogram was established to predict the prognosis of patients with CPT, which had satisfactory accuracy, and clinical utility may benefit for clinical decision-making.

Bioinformatics Analysis Reveals a Novel Prognostic Model for Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma.

Background: Esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC), a gastrointestinal cancer, is associated with poor prognosis. Prognostic models predict the likelihood of disease progression and are important for the management of patients with ESCC. The objective of this study was to develop a prognostic model for ESCC using bioinformatics analysis. Methods: Two transcriptome microarray Gene Expression Omnibus ESCC datasets (GSE53624 and GSE53622) were analyzed using bioinformatics methods. Differentially expressed genes (DEGs) were identified using the R package limma, and genes associated with survival outcomes in both datasets were identified by Kaplan-Meier analysis. Genes with diagnostic or prognostic value were selected for further analysis, and hazard ratios and their relationship with pathological TNM (pTNM) staging were investigated using univariate and multivariate Cox analysis. After selecting the independent factors from pTNM staging, Cox analysis and nomogram plotting were performed. The ability of the model to stratify risk and predict survival was evaluated and compared with the pTNM staging system to determine its potential clinical value. Key genes were analyzed by immunohistochemistry and RT-PCR. Results: Four candidate genes (B3GNT3, MACC1, NELL2, and USH1G) with prognostic value were identified from the two transcriptome microarray datasets. Age, pTNM stage, and B3GNT3, MACC1, and NELL2 were identified as independent factors associated with survival in the multivariate Cox analysis and used to establish a prognostic model. The model demonstrated significantly higher accuracy in predicting 3-year survival than the pTNM staging system and was useful for further risk stratification in patients with ESCC. B3GNT3 was significantly downregulated in ESCC tumor tissues and negatively associated with lymph node metastasis. Bioinformatics analysis indicated that B3GNT3 may play a role in immune regulation by regulating M2 macrophages. Conclusion: This study developed a new prognostic model for ESCC and identified B3GNT3 as a potential biomarker negatively associated with lymph node metastasis, which warrants further validation.

Machine learning to predict the occurrence of thyroid nodules: towards a quantitative approach for judicious utilization of thyroid ultrasonography.

Introduction: Ultrasound is instrumental in the early detection of thyroid nodules, which is crucial for appropriate management and favorable outcomes. However, there is a lack of clinical guidelines for the judicious use of thyroid ultrasonography in routine screening. Machine learning (ML) has been increasingly used on big data to predict clinical outcomes. This study aims to leverage the ML approach in assessing the risk of thyroid nodules based on common clinical features. Methods: Data were sourced from a Chinese cohort undergoing routine physical examinations including thyroid ultrasonography between 2013 and 2023. Models were established to predict the 3-year risk of thyroid nodules based on patients' baseline characteristics and laboratory tests. Four ML algorithms, including logistic regression, random forest, extreme gradient boosting, and light gradient boosting machine, were trained and tested using fivefold cross-validation. The importance of each feature was measured by the permutation score. A nomogram was established to facilitate risk assessment in the clinical settings. Results: The final dataset comprised 4,386 eligible subjects. Thyroid nodules were detected in 54.8% (n=2,404) individuals within the 3-year observation period. All ML models significantly outperformed the baseline regression model, successfully predicting the occurrence of thyroid nodules in approximately two-thirds of individuals. Age, high-density lipoprotein, fasting blood glucose and creatinine levels exhibited the highest impact on the outcome in these models. The nomogram showed consistency and validity, providing greater net benefits for clinical decision-making than other strategies. Conclusion: This study demonstrates the viability of an ML-based approach in predicting the occurrence of thyroid nodules. The findings highlight the potential of ML models in identifying high-risk individuals for personalized screening, thereby guiding the judicious use of ultrasound in this context.

Development of a Novel Nomogram to Predict Major Adverse Cardiac Events in Patients with Chronic Total Occlusion.

Objectives: To create a nomogram using single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) myocardial perfusion imaging and 18F-FDG positron emissions tomography (PET) gated myocardial metabolism imaging to forecast major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in chronic total occlusion (CTO) patients treated with optimal medical therapy (OMT). Methods: A total of 257 patients who received OMT between January 2016 and December 2021 were included in this retrospective study. Patients were randomly divided into development (n=179) and validation (n=78) cohorts. A thorough evaluation was conducted, encompassing clinical features and imaging analysis, which involved assessing myocardial perfusion and metabolism. Independent risk factors were identified using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and multivariate Cox regression analyses. Calibration curves and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to evaluate the clinical usefulness. Results: In the development cohort, 53 patients (29.6%) experienced MACE out of 179 patients, while in the validation cohort, MACE occurred in 23 (29.5%) patients out of 78. The PET-left ventricular end-systolic volume (P-ESV) (HR 1.01; 95% CI 1.003-1.017; p=0.003), hibernating myocardium / total perfusion defect (HM/TPD) (HR 1.053; 95% CI 1.038-1.069; p<0.001), PET-left ventricular ejection fraction (P-LVEF) (HR 0.862; 95% CI 0.788-0.943; p=0.001), and left anterior descending branch (LAD) (HR 2.303; 95% CI 1.086-4.884; p=0.03) were significantly associated with MACE and were used to develop the nomogram. The nomogram demonstrated excellent discrimination with C-indexes of 0.931 and 0.911 in the development and validation cohorts. DCA determined that the model exhibited a considerably superior net advantage in predicting MACE. Conclusion: A new nomogram integrating clinical factors and imaging features was created to predict the risk of MACE in patients with CTO.

Construction and Validation of Novel Ferroptosis-related Risk Score Signature and Prognostic Prediction Nomogram for Patients with Colorectal Cancer.

Background: Colorectal cancer (CRC) has a high morbidity and mortality. Ferroptosis is a phenomenon in which metabolism and cell death are closely related. The role of ferroptosis-related genes in the progression of CRC is still not clear. Therefore, we screened and validated the ferroptosis-related genes which could determine the prevalence, risk and prognosis of patients with CRC. Methods: We firstly screened differentially expressed ferroptosis-related genes by The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) database. Then, these genes were used to construct a risk-score model using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression algorithm. The function and prognosis of the ferroptosis-related genes were confirmed using multi-omics analysis. The gene expression results were validated using publicly available databases and qPCR. We also used publicly available data and ferroptosis-related genes to construct a prognostic prediction nomogram. Results: A total of 24 differential expressed genes associated with ferroptosis were screened in this study. A three-gene risk score model was then established based on these 24 genes and GPX3, CDKN2A and SLC7A11 were selected. The significant prognostic value of this novel three-gene signature was also assessed. Furthermore, we conducted RT-qPCR analysis on cell lines and tissues, and validated the high expression of CDKN2A, GPX3 and low expression of SLC7A11 in CRC cells. The observed mRNA expression of GPX3, CDKN2A and SLC7A11 was consistent with the predicted outcomes. Besides, eight variables including selected ferroptosis related genes were included to establish the prognostic prediction nomogram for patients with CRC. The calibration plots showed favorable consistency between the prediction of the nomogram and actual observations. Also, the time-dependent AUC (>0.7) indicated satisfactory discriminative ability of the nomogram. Conclusions: The present study constructed and validated a novel ferroptosis-related three-gene risk score signature and a prognostic prediction nomogram for patients with CRC. Also, we screened and validated the ferroptosis-related genes GPX3, CDKN2A, and SLC7A11 which could serve as novel biomarkers for patients with CRC.

Correlation Between Basal Metabolic Rate and Clinical Outcomes in Gastric Cancer Patients: A Retrospective Study.

OBJECTIVES: Hypermetabolism is associated with clinical prognosis of cancer patients. The aim of this study was to explore the association between basal metabolic rate (BMR) and postoperative clinical outcomes in gastric cancer patients. METHODS: We collected data of 958 gastric cancer patients admitted at our center from June 2014 to December 2018. The optimal cutoff value of BMR (BMR ≤1149 kcal/day) was obtained using the X-tile plot. Logistic and Cox regression analyses were then performed to evaluate the relevant influencing factors of clinical outcomes. Finally, R software was utilized to construct the nomogram. RESULTS: A total of 213 patients were defined as having a lower basal metabolic rate (LBMR). Univariate and multivariate analyses showed that gastric cancer patients with LBMR were more prone to postoperative complications and had poor long-term overall survival (OS). The established nomogram had good predictive power to assess the risk of OS in gastric cancer patients after radical gastrectomy (c-index was 0.764). CONCLUSIONS: Overall, LBMR on admission is associated with the occurrence of postoperative complications in gastric cancer patients, and this population has a poorer long-term survival. Therefore, there should be more focus on the perioperative management of patients with this risk factor before surgery.

A nomogram based on nutritional and inflammatory parameters to predict DMFS and identify beneficiaries of adjuvant chemotherapy in IVA-stage nasopharyngeal carcinoma.

OBJECTIVE: This study aims to develop a nomogram integrating inflammation (NLR), Prognostic Nutritional Index (PNI), and EBV DNA (tumor burden) to achieve personalized treatment and prediction for stage IVA NPC. Furthermore, it endeavors to pinpoint specific subgroups that may derive significant benefits from S-1 adjuvant chemotherapy. METHODS: A total of 834 patients diagnosed with stage IVA NPC were enrolled in this study and randomly allocated into training and validation cohorts. Multivariate Cox analyses were conducted to identify independent prognostic factors for constructing the nomogram. The predictive and clinical utility of the nomogram was assessed through measures including the AUC, calibration curve, DCA, and C-indexes. IPTW was employed to balance baseline characteristics across the population. Kaplan-Meier analysis and log-rank tests were utilized to evaluate the prognostic value. RESULTS: In our study, we examined the clinical features of 557 individuals from the training cohort and 277 from the validation cohort. The median follow-up period was 50.1 and 49.7 months, respectively. For the overall cohort, the median follow-up duration was 53.8 months. The training and validation sets showed 3-year OS rates of 87.7% and 82.5%, respectively. Meanwhile, the 3-year DMFS rates were 95.9% and 84.3%, respectively. We created a nomogram that combined PNI, NRI, and EBV DNA, resulting in high prediction accuracy. Risk stratification demonstrated substantial variations in DMFS and OS between the high and low risk groups. Patients in the high-risk group benefited significantly from the IC + CCRT + S-1 treatment. In contrast, IC + CCRT demonstrated non-inferior 3-year DMFS and OS compared to IC + CCRT + S-1 in the low-risk population, indicating the possibility of reducing treatment intensity. CONCLUSIONS: In conclusion, our nomogram integrating NLR, PNI, and EBV DNA offers precise prognostication for stage IVA NPC. S-1 adjuvant chemotherapy provides notable benefits for high-risk patients, while treatment intensity reduction may be feasible for low-risk individuals.

Triglyceride-inflammation score established on account of random survival forest for predicting survival in patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma: a retrospective study.

Objective: This study aimed to establish an effective prognostic model based on triglyceride and inflammatory markers, including neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio (LMR), and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), to predict overall survival (OS) in patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). Additionally, we aimed to explore the interaction and mediation between these biomarkers in their association with OS. Methods: A retrospective review was conducted on 259 NPC patients who had blood lipid markers, including triglyceride and total cholesterol, as well as parameters of peripheral blood cells measured before treatment. These patients were followed up for over 5 years, and randomly divided into a training set (n=155) and a validation set (n=104). The triglyceride-inflammation (TI) score was developed using the random survival forest (RSF) algorithm. Subsequently, a nomogram was created. The performance of the prognostic model was measured by the concordance index (C-index), time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA). The interaction and mediation between the biomarkers were further analyzed. Bioinformatics analysis based on the GEO dataset was used to investigate the association between triglyceride metabolism and immune cell infiltration. Results: The C-index of the TI score was 0.806 in the training set, 0.759 in the validation set, and 0.808 in the entire set. The area under the curve of time-dependent ROC of TI score in predicting survival at 1, 3, and 5 years were 0.741, 0.847, and 0.871 respectively in the training set, and 0.811, 0.837, and 0.758 in the validation set, then 0.771, 0.848, and 0.862 in the entire set, suggesting that TI score had excellent performance in predicting OS in NPC patients. Patients with stage T1-T2 or M0 had significantly lower TI scores, NLR, and PLR, and higher LMR compared to those with stage T3-T3 or M1, respectively. The nomogram, which integrated age, sex, clinical stage, and TI score, demonstrated good clinical usefulness and predictive ability, as evaluated by the DCA. Significant interactions were found between triglyceride and NLR and platelet, but triglyceride did not exhibit any medicating effects in the inflammatory markers. Additionally, NPC tissues with active triglyceride synthesis exhibited high immune cell infiltration. Conclusion: The TI score based on RSF represents a potential prognostic factor for NPC patients, offering convenience and economic advantages. The interaction between triglyceride and NLR may be attributed to the effect of triglyceride metabolism on immune response.

A novel anoikis-related signature predicts prognosis risk and treatment responsiveness in diffuse large B-cell lymphoma.

BACKGROUND: Although anoikis plays a role in cancer metastasis and aggressiveness, it has rarely been reported in diffuse large B cell lymphoma (DLBCL). METHODS: We obtained RNA sequencing data and matched clinical data from the GEO database. An anoikis-related genes (ARGs)-based risk signature was developed in GSE10846 training cohort and validated in three other cohorts. Additionally, we predicted half-maximal inhibitory concentration (IC50) of drugs based on bioinformatics method and obtained the actual IC50 to some chemotherapy drugs via cytotoxicity assay. RESULTS: The high-risk group, as determined by our signature, was associated with worse prognosis and an immunosuppressive environment in DLBCL. Meanwhile, the nomogram based on eight variables had more accurate ability in forecasting the prognosis than the international prognostic index in DLBCL. The prediction of IC50 indicated that DLBCL patients in the high-risk group were more sensitive to doxorubicin, IPA-3, lenalidomide, gemcitabine, and CEP.701, while patients in the low-risk group were sensitive to cisplatin and dasatinib. Consistent with the prediction, cytotoxicity assay suggested the higher sensitivity to doxorubicin and gemcitabine and the lower sensitivity to dasatinib in the high-risk group in DLBCL. CONCLUSION: The ARG-based signature may provide a promising direction for prognosis prediction and treatment optimization for DLBCL patients.