Cost-effectiveness of consensus guideline based management of pancreatic cysts: The sensitivity and specificity required for guidelines to be cost-effective.

BACKGROUND: Detection of cystic lesions of the pancreas has outpaced our ability to stratify low-grade cystic lesions from those at greater risk for pancreatic cancer, raising a concern for overtreatment. METHODS: We developed a Markov decision model to determine the cost-effectiveness of guideline-based management for asymptomatic pancreatic cysts. Incremental costs per quality-adjusted life year gained and survival were calculated for current management guidelines. A sensitivity analysis estimated the effect on cost-effectiveness and mortality if overtreatment of low-grade cysts is avoided, and the sensitivity and specificity thresholds required of methods of cyst stratification to improve costs expended. RESULTS: "Surveillance" using current management guidelines had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $171,143/quality adjusted life year compared with no surveillance or operative treatment ("do nothing"). An incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for surveillance decreases to $80,707/quality adjusted life year if the operative overtreatment of low-grade cysts was avoided. Assuming a societal willingness-to-pay of $100,000/quality adjusted life year, the diagnostic specificity for high-risk cysts must be >67% for surveillance to be preferred over surgery and "do nothing." Changes in sensitivity alone cannot make surveillance cost-effective. Most importantly, survival in surveillance is worse than "do nothing" for 3 years after cyst diagnosis, although long-term survival is improved. The disadvantage is eliminated when overtreatment of low-grade cysts is avoided. CONCLUSION: Current management of pancreatic cystic lesions is not cost-effective and may increase mortality owing to overtreatment of low-grade cysts. The specificity for risk stratification for high-risk cysts must be greater than 67% to make surveillance cost-effective.

Clinical and Economic Outcomes of Patients Undergoing Guideline-Directed Management of Pancreatic Cysts.

INTRODUCTION: Numerous guidelines exist for the management of pancreatic cysts. We sought to compare the guideline-directed management strategies for pancreatic cysts by comparing 2 approaches (2017 International Consensus Guidelines and 2015 American Gastroenterological Association Guidelines) that differ significantly in their thresholds for imaging, surveillance, and surgery. METHODS: We developed a Monte Carlo model to evaluate the outcomes for a cohort of 10,000 patients managed per each guideline. The primary outcome was mortality related to pancreatic cyst management. Secondary outcomes included all-cause mortality, missed cancers, number of surgeries, number of imaging studies, cumulative cost, and quality-adjusted life years. RESULTS: Deaths because of pancreatic cyst management and quality-adjusted life years were similar in both guidelines at a significantly higher cost of $3.6 million per additional cancer detected in the Consensus Guidelines. Deaths from "unrelated" causes (1,422) vastly outnumbered deaths related to pancreatic cysts (125). Secondary outcomes included more missed cancers in the American Gastroenterological Association guideline (71 vs 49), more surgeries and imaging studies in the Consensus guideline (711 vs 163; 116,997 vs 68,912), and higher cost in the Consensus guideline ($168.3 million vs $89.4 million). As the rate of malignant transformation increases, a more-intensive guideline resulted in fewer deaths related to pancreatic cyst management. DISCUSSION: Our study demonstrates trade-offs between more- and less-intensive management strategies for pancreatic cysts. Although deaths related to pancreatic cyst management were similar in each strategy, fewer missed cancers in the more-intensive surveillance strategy is offset by a greater number of surgical deaths and higher cost. In conclusion, our study identifies that if the rate malignant transformation of pancreatic cysts is low (0.12% annually), a less-intensive guideline will result in similar deaths to a more-intensive guideline at a much lower cost.

Downstream Costs Associated With Incidental Pancreatic Cysts Detected at MRI.

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study is to assess downstream costs associated with pancreatic cysts incidentally detected at MRI. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Two hundred patients with an incidental pancreatic cyst detected at MRI were identified. Downstream events (imaging, office visits, endoscopic ultrasound-guided fine-needle aspiration, or chemotherapy) were identified from the electronic medical record. Radiologists' recommendations and ordering physician management were classified relative to the American College of Radiology (ACR) incidental findings committee recommendations. Costs for the downstream events were estimated using national Medicare rates and a 3% annual discount rate. Mean costs were computed. RESULTS: Estimated downstream costs averaged $460 per cyst ($872 per cyst with any follow-up testing). Nine patients had a clinically relevant outcome during follow-up (increase in cyst size, development of new cyst, or development of pancreatic cancer). Downstream cost per cyst with a clinically relevant outcome was $1364. Costs were greater when ordering physicians overmanaged ($842) versus when they were adherent ($631) or undermanaged ($252) relative to radiologist recommendation. Although costs were $252 when ordering physicians undermanaged relative to ACR incidental findings committee recommendations, costs were similar when ordering physicians were adherent ($811) or overmanaged ($845) relative to ACR incidental findings committee recommendations. Costs did not vary significantly according to whether radiologists recommended follow-up testing ($317-$491) or whether radiologist recommendations were adherent, undermanaged, or overmanaged relative to ACR incidental findings committee recommendations ($344-$528). CONCLUSION: The findings suggest a role for targeted educational efforts, collaborative partnerships, and other initiatives to foster greater adherence to radiologist recommendations, including critical test results notification systems, automated reminders within electronic health systems, and stronger language within radiology reports when no follow-up testing is recommended.

Do diagnosis-related groups accurately reflect the disease? Pancreatic pseudocyst: a case in point.

Diagnosis-related groups (DRGs) have been mandated by the federal government to promote fiscal responsibility and insure cost containment. A retrospective analysis of demographic and cost data was conducted on 115 patients operated on for pancreatic pseudocyst. The DRG 191 criteria are as follows: major pancreas, liver plus shunt procedure; mean length of stay (LOS), 20.8 days; outlier cutoff LOS, 41 days; hospital reimbursement, $11,367.82; and day outlier rate, $86.57. The overall LOS was 34.6 days (range, one to 138 days). Sixty-six percent of the patients exceeded the DRG LOS and 37% exceeded the day outlier cutoff of 41. The number of days from admission to surgery varied from one to 65 (mean, 15.7 days). Hospital charges and DRG reimbursement were compared in 23 patients. In nine patients with a LOS of 19.9 days, DRG reimbursement exceeded charges by $34,308. In 14 patients whose charges exceeded reimbursement, the loss was $142,156. Hospital costs and LOS seem to be related to the natural history of the disease and its necessary treatment, rather than to unnecessary diagnostic procedures. Unless surgeons assess and establish medical standards, economic pressures will have a negative impact on patient care and physicians' practice.