Acute necrotising pancreatitis from ascariasis in a gravid patient.

Rarer causes of acute pancreatitis may be considered in certain settings, such as parasitism in endemic regions. This report describes a pregnant female (second trimester) in her 20s who presented with 3-day steady epigastric pain radiating to the back and passage of worm from the mouth. She was diagnosed with mild acute pancreatitis, given a significantly elevated serum lipase and absence of organ failures. Fecalysis showed Ascaris lumbricoides ova; hence, she was treated with mebendazole. Plain MR cholangiopancreatography showed an 842 mL necrotic pancreatic fluid collection and tubular flow void foci within the gallbladder and duodenum consistent with helminthiasis. The patient was managed conservatively in the absence of indications for drainage. The abdominal pain remarkably improved, and she underwent eventual vacuum-assisted delivery to a healthy term baby 4 months after the bout of acute pancreatitis.

Nomogram for the prediction of infected pancreatic necrosis in moderately severe and severe acute pancreatitis.

OBJECTIVES: As a serious complication of moderately severe acute pancreatitis (MSAP) and severe acute pancreatitis (SAP), infected pancreatic necrosis (IPN) can lead to a prolonged course of interventional therapy. Most predictive models designed to identify such patients are complex or lack validation. The aim of this study was to develop a predictive model for the early detection of IPN in MSAP and SAP. METHODS: A total of 594 patients with MSAP or SAP were included in the study. To reduce dimensionality, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression analysis was used to screen potential predictive variables, a nomogram was then constructed using logistic regression analysis. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to evaluate the discrimination, accuracy, and clinical efficacy of the model. External data were also obtained to further validate the constructed model. RESULTS: There were 476, 118, and 82 patients in the training, internal validation, and external validation cohorts, respectively. Platelet count, hematocrit, albumin/globulin, severity of acute pancreatitis, and modified computed tomography severity index score were independent factors for predicting IPN in MSAP and SAP. The area under the ROC curves were 0.923, 0.940, and 0.817, respectively, in the three groups. There was a good consistency between the actual probabilities and the predicted probabilities. DCA revealed excellent clinical utility. CONCLUSION: The constructed nomogram is a simple and feasible model that has good clinical predictive value and efficacy in clinical decision-making for IPN in MSAP and SAP.

Early prediction and prevention of infected pancreatic necrosis.

Approximately 20%-30% of patients with acute necrotizing pancreatitis develop infected pancreatic necrosis (IPN), a highly morbid and potentially lethal complication. Early identification of patients at high risk of IPN may facilitate appropriate preventive measures to improve clinical outcomes. In the past two decades, several markers and predictive tools have been proposed and evaluated for this purpose. Conventional biomarkers like C-reactive protein, procalcitonin, lymphocyte count, interleukin-6, and interleukin-8, and newly developed biomarkers like angiopoietin-2 all showed significant association with IPN. On the other hand, scoring systems like the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II and Pancreatitis Activity Scoring System have also been tested, and the results showed that they may provide better accuracy. For early prevention of IPN, several new therapies were tested, including early enteral nutrition, antibiotics, probiotics, immune enhancement, etc., but the results varied. Taken together, several evidence-supported predictive markers and scoring systems are readily available for predicting IPN. However, effective treatments to reduce the incidence of IPN are still lacking apart from early enteral nutrition. In this editorial, we summarize evidence concerning early prediction and prevention of IPN, providing insights into future practice and study design. A more homogeneous patient population with reliable risk-stratification tools may help find effective treatments to reduce the risk of IPN, thereby achieving individualized treatment.

Emphysematous Pancreatitis as a Life-Threatening Condition: A Case Report and Review of the Literature.

Emphysematous pancreatitis represents the presence of gas within or around the pancreas on the ground of necrotizing pancreatitis due to superinfection with gas-forming bacteria. This entity is diagnosed on clinical grounds and on the basis of radiologic findings. Computed tomography is the preferred imaging modality used to detect this life-threating condition. The management of emphysematous pancreatitis consists of conservative measures, image-guided percutaneous catheter drainage or endoscopic therapy, and surgical intervention, which is delayed as long as possible and undertaken only in patients who continue to deteriorate despite conservative management. Due to its high mortality rate, early and prompt recognition and treatment of emphysematous pancreatitis are crucial and require individualized treatment with the involvement of a multidisciplinary team. Here, we present a case of emphysematous pancreatitis as an unusual occurrence and discuss disease features and treatment options in order to facilitate diagnostics and therapy.

[THE MULTIDISCIPLINARY APPROACH TO ACUTE NECROTIZING PANCREATITIS].

INTRODUCTION: Acute pancreatitis is among the most common gastrointestinal diseases, and a major cause of hospitalization and morbidity. Gallstones and alcohol abuse are the most common causes of acute pancreatitis. Other etiologies include hypertriglyceridemia, medications, post- endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP), trauma, hypercalcemia, infections and toxins, anatomic anomalies, etc. In most cases acute pancreatitis is a mild self-limiting disease. However, up to 20% of patients develop severe pancreatitis with pancreatic necrosis, which possess high rates of multi-organ failure and mortality. Conservative management of acute necrotizing pancreatitis includes fluid resuscitation, nutritional support, and broad spectrum antibiotics for infected necrotic peripancreatic fluid collection (PFC). Indications for further invasive interventions include infected necrotic PFC and/or persistent severe symptoms due to mass effect. Current clinical management algorithms favor endoscopic ultrasound (EUS)-guided drainage of PFCs. In case of a large collection or extension to the paracolic gutters, a percutaneous drainage is indicated. Dual modalities (percutaneous together with endoscopic drainage) possess lower rates of pancreatic-cutaneous fistulas, shorter length of hospitalization and less endoscopic interventions. Direct endoscopic necrosectomy should be considered when the patient fails to improve despite endoscopic and percutaneous drainage. A multidisciplinary approach, which involves advanced endoscopists, interventional radiologists, pancreaticobiliary surgeons as well as nutrition and infectious disease specialists, is needed for the optimal management of severe necrotizing pancreatitis.

Metagenomic next-generation sequencing, instead of procalcitonin, could guide antibiotic usage in patients with febrile acute necrotizing pancreatitis: a multicenter, prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUNDS: The effectiveness of procalcitonin-based algorithms in guiding antibiotic usage for febrile acute necrotizing pancreatitis (ANP) remains controversial. Metagenomic next-generation sequencing (mNGS) has been applied to diagnose infectious diseases. The authors aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of blood mNGS in guiding antibiotic stewardship for febrile ANP. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The prospective multicenter clinical trial was conducted at seven hospitals in China. Blood samples were collected during fever (T ≥38.5°C) from ANP patients. The effectiveness of blood mNGS, procalcitonin, and blood culture in diagnosing pancreatic infection was evaluated and compared. Additionally, the real-world utilization of antibiotics and the potential mNGS-guided antimicrobial strategy in febrile ANP were also analyzed. RESULTS: From May 2023 to October 2023, a total of 78 patients with febrile ANP were enrolled and 30 patients (38.5%) were confirmed infected pancreatic necrosis (IPN). Compared with procalcitonin and blood culture, mNGS showed a significantly higher sensitivity rate (86.7% vs. 56.7% vs. 26.7%, P <0.001). Moreover, mNGS outperformed procalcitonin (89.5 vs. 61.4%, P <0.01) and blood culture (89.5 vs. 69.0%, P <0.01) in terms of negative predictive value. Blood mNGS exhibited the highest accuracy (85.7%) in diagnosing IPN and sterile pancreatic necrosis, significantly superior to both procalcitonin (65.7%) and blood culture (61.4%). In the multivariate analysis, positive blood mNGS (OR=60.2, P <0.001) and lower fibrinogen level (OR=2.0, P <0.05) were identified as independent predictors associated with IPN, whereas procalcitonin was not associated with IPN, but with increased mortality (Odds ratio=11.7, P =0.006). Overall, the rate of correct use of antibiotics in the cohort was only 18.6% (13/70) and would be improved to 81.4% (57/70) if adjusted according to the mNGS results. CONCLUSION: Blood mNGS represents important progress in the early diagnosis of IPN, with particular importance in guiding antibiotic usage for patients with febrile ANP.

Splanchnic vein thrombosis in necrotizing pancreatitis: a post-hoc analysis of a nationwide prospective cohort.

BACKGROUND: Treatment guidelines for splanchnic vein thrombosis in necrotizing pancreatitis are lacking due to insufficient data on the full clinical spectrum. METHODS: We performed a post-hoc analysis of a nationwide prospective necrotizing pancreatitis cohort. Multivariable analyses were used to identify risk factors and compare the clinical course of patients with and without SVT. RESULTS: SVT was detected in 97 of the 432 included patients (22%) (median onset: 4 days). Risk factors were left, central, or subtotal necrosis (OR 28.52; 95% CI 20.11-40.45), right or diffuse necrosis (OR 5.76; 95% CI 3.89-8.51), and younger age (OR 0.94; 95% CI 0.90-0.97). Patients with SVT had higher rates of bleeding (n = 10,11%) and bowel ischemia (n = 4,4%) compared to patients without SVT (n = 14,4% and n = 2,0.6%; OR 3.24; 95% CI 1.27-8.23 and OR 7.29; 95% CI 1.31-40.4, respectively), and were independently associated with ICU admission (adjusted OR 2.53; 95% CI 1.37-4.68). Spontaneous recanalization occurred in 62% of patients (n = 40/71). Radiological and clinical outcomes did not differ between patients treated with and without anticoagulants. DISCUSSION: SVT is a common and early complication of necrotizing pancreatitis, associated with parenchymal necrosis and younger age. SVT is associated with increased complications and a worse clinical course, whereas anticoagulant use does not appear to affect outcomes.

Persistently High Procalcitonin and C-Reactive Protein Are Good Predictors of Infection in Acute Necrotizing Pancreatitis: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

Infected necrotizing pancreatitis (INP) is associated with an increased risk of organ failure and mortality. Its early recognition and timely initiation of antibiotic therapy can save patients' lives. We systematically searched three databases on 27 October 2022. In the eligible studies, the presence of infection in necrotizing pancreatitis was confirmed via a reference test, which involved either the identification of gas within the necrotic collection through computed tomography imaging or the examination of collected samples, which yielded positive results in Gram staining or culture. Laboratory biomarkers compared between sterile necrotizing pancreatitis and INP were used as the index test, and our outcome measures included sensitivity, specificity, the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and area under the ROC curve (AUC). Within the first 72 hours (h) after admission, the AUC of C-reactive protein (CRP) was 0.69 (confidence interval (CI): 0.62-0.76), for procalcitonin (PCT), it was 0.69 (CI: 0.60-0.78), and for white blood cell count, it was 0.61 (CI: 0.47-0.75). After the first 72 h, the pooled AUC of CRP showed an elevated level of 0.88 (CI: 0.75-1.00), and for PCT, it was 0.86 (CI: 0.60-1.11). The predictive value of CRP and PCT for infection is poor within 72 h after hospital admission but seems good after the first 72 h. Based on these results, infection is likely in case of persistently high CRP and PCT, and antibiotic initiation may be recommended.

Early systemic anticoagulation reduces hospital readmission in acute necrotizing pancreatitis patients: A retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Early systemic anticoagulation (SAC) is a common practice in acute necrotizing pancreatitis (ANP), and its impact on in-hospital clinical outcomes had been assessed. However, whether it affects long-term outcomes is unknown. This study aimed to evaluate the effect of SAC on 90-day readmission and other long-term outcomes in ANP patients. METHODS: During January 2013 and December 2018, ANP patients admitted within 7 days from the onset of abdominal pain were screened. The primary outcome was 90-day readmission after discharge. Cox proportional-hazards regression model and mediation analysis were used to define the relationship between early SAC and 90-day readmission. RESULTS: A total of 241 ANP patients were enrolled, of whom 143 received early SAC during their hospitalization and 98 did not. Patients who received early SAC experienced a lower incidence of splanchnic venous thrombosis (SVT) [risk ratio (RR) = 0.40, 95% CI: 0.26-0.60, P < 0.01] and lower 90-day readmission with an RR of 0.61 (95% CI: 0.41-0.91, P = 0.02) than those who did not. For the quality of life, patients who received early SAC had a significantly higher score in the subscale of vitality (P = 0.03) while the other subscales were all comparable between the two groups. Multivariable Cox regression model showed that early SAC was an independent protective factor for 90-day readmission after adjusting for potential confounders with a hazard ratio of 0.57 (95% CI: 0.34-0.96, P = 0.04). Mediation analysis showed that SVT mediated 37.0% of the early SAC-90-day readmission causality. CONCLUSIONS: The application of early SAC may reduce the risk of 90-day readmission in the survivors of ANP patients, and reduced SVT incidence might be the primary contributor.

Contemporary management of acute pancreatitis: What you need to know.

ABSTRACT: Acute pancreatitis and management of its complications is a common consult for the acute care surgeon. With the ongoing development of both operative and endoscopic treatment modalities, management recommendations continue to evolve. We describe the current diagnostic and treatment guidelines for acute pancreatitis through the lens of acute care surgery. Topics, including optimal nutrition, timing of cholecystectomy in gallstone pancreatitis, and the management of peripancreatic fluid collections, are discussed. Although the management severe acute pancreatitis can include advanced interventional modalities including endoscopic, percutaneous, and surgical debridement, the initial management of acute pancreatitis includes fluid resuscitation, early enteral nutrition, and close monitoring with consideration of cross-sectional imaging and antibiotics in the setting of suspected superimposed infection. Several scoring systems including the Revised Atlanta Criteria, the Bedside Index for Severity in Acute Pancreatitis score, and the American Association for the Surgery of Trauma grade have been devised to classify and predict the development of the severe acute pancreatitis. In biliary pancreatitis, cholecystectomy prior to discharge is recommended in mild disease and within 8 weeks of necrotizing pancreatitis, while early peripancreatic fluid collections should be managed without intervention. Underlying infection or ongoing symptoms warrant delayed intervention with technique selection dependent on local expertise, anatomic location of the fluid collection, and the specific clinical scenario. Landmark trials have shifted therapy from maximally invasive necrosectomy to more minimally invasive step-up approaches. The acute care surgeon should maintain a skill set that includes these minimally invasive techniques to successfully manage these patients. Overall, the management of acute pancreatitis for the acute care surgeon requires a strong understanding of both the clinical decisions and the options for intervention should this be necessary.

Upfront endoscopic necrosectomy or step-up endoscopic approach for infected necrotising pancreatitis (DESTIN): a single-blinded, multicentre, randomised trial.

BACKGROUND: Although the preferred management approach for patients with infected necrotising pancreatitis is endoscopic transluminal stenting followed by endoscopic necrosectomy as step-up treatment if there is no clinical improvement, the optimal timing of necrosectomy is unclear. Therefore, we aimed to compare outcomes between performing upfront necrosectomy at the index intervention versus as a step-up measure in patients with infected necrotising pancreatitis. METHODS: This single-blinded, multicentre, randomised trial (DESTIN) was done at six tertiary care hospitals (five hospitals in the USA and one hospital in India). We enrolled patients (aged ≥18 years) with confirmed or suspected infected necrotising pancreatitis with a necrosis extent of at least 33% who were amenable to endoscopic ultrasound-guided drainage. By use of computer-generated permuted block randomisation (block size four), eligible patients were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive either upfront endoscopic necrosectomy or endoscopic step-up treatment. Endoscopists were not masked to treatment allocation, but participants, research coordinators, and the statistician were. Lumen-apposing metal stents (20 mm diameter; 10 mm saddle length) were used for drainage in both groups. In the upfront group, direct necrosectomy was performed immediately after stenting in the same treatment session. In the step-up group, direct necrosectomy or additional drainage was done at a subsequent treatment session if there was no clinical improvement (resolution of any criteria of systemic inflammatory response syndrome or sepsis or one or more organ failure and at least a 25% percentage decrease in necrotic collection size) 72 h after stenting. The primary outcome was the number of reinterventions per patient to achieve treatment success from index intervention to 6 months' follow-up, which was defined as symptom relief in conjunction with disease resolution on CT. Reinterventions included any endoscopic or radiological procedures performed for necrosectomy or additional drainage after the index intervention, excluding the follow-up procedure at 4 weeks for stent removal. All endpoints and safety were analysed by intention-to-treat. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT05043415 and NCT04113499, and recruitment and follow-up have been completed. FINDINGS: Between Nov 27, 2019, and Oct 26, 2022, 183 patients were assessed for eligibility and 70 patients (24 [34%] women and 46 [66%] men) were randomly assigned to receive upfront necrosectomy (n=37) or step-up treatment (n=33) and included in the intention-to-treat population. At the time of index intervention, seven (10%) of 70 patients had organ failure and 64 (91%) patients had walled-off necrosis. The median number of reinterventions was significantly lower for upfront necrosectomy (1 [IQR 0 to 1] than for the step-up approach (2 [1 to 4], difference -1 [95% CI -2 to 0]; p=0·0027). Mortality did not differ between groups (zero patients in the upfront necrosectomy group vs two [6%] in the step-up group, difference -6·1 percentage points [95% CI -16·5 to 4·5]; p=0·22), nor did overall disease-related adverse events (12 [32%] patients in the upfront necrosectomy group vs 16 [48%] patients in the step-up group, difference -16·1 percentage points [-37·4 to 7·0]; p=0·17), nor procedure-related adverse events (four [11%] patients in the upfront necrosectomy group vs eight [24%] patients in the step-up group, difference -13·4 percentage points [-30·8 to 5·0]; p=0·14). INTERPRETATION: In stabilised patients with infected necrotising pancreatitis and fully encapsulated collections, an approach incorporating upfront necrosectomy at the index intervention rather than as a step-up measure could safely reduce the number of reinterventions required to achieve treatment success. FUNDING: None.

[A modified method for percutaneous drainage of acute necrotic collections in patients with infected pancreatic necrosis]. / Modifitsirovannyi metod chreskozhnogo drenirovaniya ostrykh nekroticheskikh skoplenii u patsientov s infitsirovannym pankreonekrozom.

OBJECTIVE: To develop a modified method for percutaneous drainage of acute necrotic collections in patients with infected pancreatic necrosis. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Minimally invasive surgical technologies were used in 74 patients with infected acute necrotic collections at the Krasnodar Regional Clinical Hospital No. 2 between 2017 and 2019. Of these, 59 (79.7%) people underwent percutaneous drainage as a final treatment. In 11 (14.9%) patients, video sequestrectomy through the fistula was additionally used to increase efficiency of percutaneous drainage. RESULTS: PCD in our modification implies delivery of double-lumen drains 26-32 Fr in the same plane to zones of necrosis, their programmed replacement for prevention of obstruction and flexible endoscopy for control of pathological process. Local purulent-necrotic parapancreatitis occurred in 31 (41.9%) patients, widespread parapancreatitis - in 43 (58.1%) patients. There were 339 minimally invasive interventions. Laparotomy was required in 4 (5.4%) patients. Incidence of perioperative complications was 10.6%, mortality - 16.2%. CONCLUSION: A modified percutaneous drainage method may be used as final surgical treatment in 79.7% of patients with infected pancreatic necrosis.

[Influence of early surgery and endoscopic interventions on the risk of infection in patients with pancreatic necrosis]. / Vliyanie rannikh operativnykh i endoskopicheskikh vmeshatel'stv na risk infitsirovaniya u patsientov s pankreonekrozom.

OBJECTIVE: To prevent purulent-septic complications in patients with destructive pancreatitis. MATERIAL AND METHODS: A cohort study included 488 patients with pancreatic necrosis: group 1 (n=331) - active surgical strategy, group 2 (n=157) - follow-up and therapy. We used binary logistic regression to predict purulent-septic complications. RESULTS: Original model of independent variables significantly (p<0.001) revealed 5.3 times higher risk of infectious complications after laparotomy within the first week after hospitalization. Incidence of these events increased by 2.8 times in patients biliary pancreatitis compared to alcohol-alimentary pancreatitis. Complication rate was higher in older patients (by 2.1% for each year). Risk of purulent-septic complications decreased by 57.4% in women compared to men. There was no significant correlation between risk of infectious complications and endoscopic procedures. Specificity and sensitivity of the model was 74.2 and 72.6%, respectively. CONCLUSION: Original model significantly predicts the risk of purulent-septic complications within the first week after hospitalization. Refusal of early active surgical strategy in these patients will significantly reduce the likelihood of purulent-septic complications.

[Predictive value of PASS score combined with NLR and CRP for infected pancreatic necrosis in patients with severe acute pancreatitis].

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the predictive value of pancreatitis activity scoring system (PASS) combined with Neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and C-reactive protein (CRP) for infected pancreatic necrosis (IPN) in patients with severe acute pancreatitis (SAP). METHODS: Clinical data of SAP patients admitted to the First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University from January 2020 to January 2023 were retrospectively collected, including basic information, vital signs at admission, first laboratory indexes within 48 hours of admission. The PASS scores at admission and 24, 48 and 72 hours after admission were calculated. According to the diagnostic criteria of IPN, the patients were divided into the non-IPN group and the IPN group, and the independent risk factors of SAP complicating IPN were determined by using univariate analysis and multifactorial Logistic regression. The receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC curve) was drawn to evaluate the predictive value of NLR, CRP, and PASS score, alone and in combination for IPN in patients with SAP. RESULTS: A total of 149 SAP patients were enrolled, including 102 in the non-IPN group and 47 in the IPN group. The differences in PASS score at each time point, NLR, CRP, procalcitonin (PCT), blood urea nitrogen, blood chloride, and days of hospitalization between the two groups were statistically significant. Multifactorial Logistic regression analysis showed that 72 hours admission PASS score [odds ratio (OR) = 1.034, 95% confidence interval (95%CI) was 1.005-1.065, P = 0.022], NLR (OR = 1.284, 95%CI was 1.139-1.447, P = 0.000), and CRP (OR = 1.015, 95%CI was 1.006-1.023, P = 0.001) were independent risk factors for IPN in patients with SAP. ROC curve analysis showed that the area under the ROC curve (AUC) of the PASS score at 72 hours of admission, NLR, and CRP alone in predicting IPN in SAP patients were 0.828, 0.771, and 0.701, respectively. The AUC of NLR combined with CRP, PASS combined with NLR, and PASS combined with CRP were 0.818, 0.895, and 0.874, respectively. The combination of PASS score at 72 hours after admission, NLR, and CRP had a better predictive ability for IPN in patients with SAP (AUC = 0.922, 95%CI was 0.877-0.967), and the sensitivity was 72.3% when the cut-off value was 0.539. CONCLUSIONS: The predictive value of the PASS score at 72 hours after admission, NLR and CRP in combination for IPN in SAP patients is better than that of the combination of each two and individual detection and has better test efficacy.

Pancreatic Torsion Resulting in Acute Pancreatic Necrosis in a Young Dog.

We report a case of 7 mo old French bulldog who was referred to North Carolina State University Small Animal Emergency and Triage Services because of acute abdomen, regurgitation, lethargy, and fever. The patient had a history of pulmonic stenosis, which was corrected by balloon valvuloplasty 3 wk before presenting for the current complaint. The patient had nonspecific changes noted on blood work at his referring veterinarian. An abdominal ultrasound examination showed pathological changes that were supportive of a left-limb pancreatic torsion that was confirmed postmortem.

[Technological features of open and minimally invasive surgical treatment of local complications of purulent-necrotic pancreatitis]. / Sravnenie tekhnologicheskikh osobennostei primeneniya otkrytykh i minimal'no invazivnykh sposobov khirurgicheskogo lecheniya mestnykh oslozhnenii gnoino-nekroticheskogo pankreatita.

There are various options for surgical treatment of purulent-necrotic pancreatitis with significant technological differences. Combining surgical methods other than traditional ones into a group of minimally invasive ones based on the principle of the absence of standard laparotomy is not entirely correct. The review presents modern methods of surgical treatment of acute pancreatitis, comparison of their technology regarding classical stages of surgical intervention and their classification.

Nomogram development and validation for predicting minimally invasive step-up approach failure in infected necrotizing pancreatitis patients: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies have shown that minimally invasive treatment for infected necrotizing pancreatitis (INP) may be safer and more effective than open necrosectomy (ON), but ON is still irreplaceable in a portion of INP patients. Furthermore, there is a lack of tools to identify INP patients at risk of minimally invasive step-up approach failure (eventually received ON or died), which may enable appropriate treatment for them. Our study aims to identify risk factors that can predict minimally invasive step-up approach failure in INP patients and to develop a nomogram for early prediction. METHODS: Multivariate logistic regression was performed to evaluate the association between minimally invasive step-up approach failure and factors regarding demographics, disease severity, laboratory index, and the location of extrapancreatic necrotic collections. A novel nomogram was developed, and its performance was validated both internally and externally by its discrimination, calibration, and clinical usefulness. RESULTS: There were 267, 89, and 107 patients in the training, internal, and external validation cohorts, respectively. Multivariate logistic regression demonstrated that the computed tomography severity index (CTSI) greater than 8 points, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) score of 16 points or more, early spontaneous bleeding, fungi infection, granulocyte and platelet decrease within 30 days of acute pancreatitis onset, and extrapancreatic necrosis collection located in small bowel mesentery were independent risk factors for minimally invasive step-up approach failure. The area under the curve and coefficient of determination ( R2 ) of the nomogram constructed from the above factors were 0.920 and 0.644, respectively. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed that the model had good fitness ( P =0.206). In addition, the nomogram performed well in both the internal and external validation cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: The nomogram had a good performance in predicting minimally invasive step-up approach failure, which may help clinicians distinguish INP patients at risk of minimally invasive step-up approach failure early.