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1.
Front Public Health ; 12: 1394762, 2024.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38756875

ABSTRACT

Objective: This study investigated the epidemiological and clinical characteristics of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infected patients during the second pandemic of COVID-19 (coronavirus disease of 2019) in Chengdu, China. Furthermore, the differences between first infection and re-infection cases were also compared and analyzed to provide evidence for better prevention and control of SARS-CoV-2 re-infection. Methods: An anonymous questionnaire survey was conducted using an online platform (wjx.cn) between May 20, 2023 to September 12, 2023. Results: This investigation included 62.94% females and 32.97% of them were 18-30 years old. Furthermore, 7.19-17.18% of the participants either did not receive vaccination at all or only received full vaccination, respectively. Moreover, 577 (57.64%) participants were exposed to cluster infection. The clinical manifestations of these patients were mainly mild to moderate; 78.18% of participants had a fever for 1-3 days, while 37.84% indicated a full course of disease for 4-6 days. In addition, 40.66% of the participants had re-infection and 72.97% indicated their first infection approximately five months before. The clinical symptoms of the first SARS-CoV-2 infection were moderate to severe, while re-infection indicated mild to moderate symptoms (the severity of symptoms other than diarrhea and conjunctival congestion had statistically significant differences) (p < 0.05). Moreover, 70.53 and 59.21% of first and re-infection cases had fever durations of 3-5 and 0-2 days, respectively. Whereas 47.91 and 46.40% of first and re-infection cases had a disease course of 7-9 and 4-6 days. Conclusion: The SARS-CoV-2 infected individuals in Chengdu, China, during the second pandemic of COVID-19 had mild clinical symptoms and a short course of disease. Furthermore, compared with the first infection, re-infection cases had mild symptoms, low incidences of complications, short fever duration, and course of disease.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , SARS-CoV-2 , Humans , COVID-19/epidemiology , China/epidemiology , Female , Male , Adult , Adolescent , Surveys and Questionnaires , Middle Aged , Young Adult , Pandemics/statistics & numerical data , Aged , Reinfection/epidemiology
2.
Bull Math Biol ; 86(6): 71, 2024 May 08.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38719993

ABSTRACT

Due to the complex interactions between multiple infectious diseases, the spreading of diseases in human bodies can vary when people are exposed to multiple sources of infection at the same time. Typically, there is heterogeneity in individuals' responses to diseases, and the transmission routes of different diseases also vary. Therefore, this paper proposes an SIS disease spreading model with individual heterogeneity and transmission route heterogeneity under the simultaneous action of two competitive infectious diseases. We derive the theoretical epidemic spreading threshold using quenched mean-field theory and perform numerical analysis under the Markovian method. Numerical results confirm the reliability of the theoretical threshold and show the inhibitory effect of the proportion of fully competitive individuals on epidemic spreading. The results also show that the diversity of disease transmission routes promotes disease spreading, and this effect gradually weakens when the epidemic spreading rate is high enough. Finally, we find a negative correlation between the theoretical spreading threshold and the average degree of the network. We demonstrate the practical application of the model by comparing simulation outputs to temporal trends of two competitive infectious diseases, COVID-19 and seasonal influenza in China.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Computer Simulation , Influenza, Human , Markov Chains , Mathematical Concepts , Models, Biological , SARS-CoV-2 , Humans , COVID-19/transmission , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/prevention & control , Influenza, Human/epidemiology , Influenza, Human/transmission , China/epidemiology , Basic Reproduction Number/statistics & numerical data , Epidemiological Models , Pandemics/statistics & numerical data , Pandemics/prevention & control , Epidemics/statistics & numerical data
3.
PLoS Comput Biol ; 20(5): e1012124, 2024 May.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38758962

ABSTRACT

Projects such as the European Covid-19 Forecast Hub publish forecasts on the national level for new deaths, new cases, and hospital admissions, but not direct measurements of hospital strain like critical care bed occupancy at the sub-national level, which is of particular interest to health professionals for planning purposes. We present a sub-national French framework for forecasting hospital strain based on a non-Markovian compartmental model, its associated online visualisation tool and a retrospective evaluation of the real-time forecasts it provided from January to December 2021 by comparing to three baselines derived from standard statistical forecasting methods (a naive model, auto-regression, and an ensemble of exponential smoothing and ARIMA). In terms of median absolute error for forecasting critical care unit occupancy at the two-week horizon, our model only outperformed the naive baseline for 4 out of 14 geographical units and underperformed compared to the ensemble baseline for 5 of them at the 90% confidence level (n = 38). However, for the same level at the 4 week horizon, our model was never statistically outperformed for any unit despite outperforming the baselines 10 times spanning 7 out of 14 geographical units. This implies modest forecasting utility for longer horizons which may justify the application of non-Markovian compartmental models in the context of hospital-strain surveillance for future pandemics.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Forecasting , SARS-CoV-2 , COVID-19/epidemiology , Humans , France/epidemiology , Forecasting/methods , Computational Biology/methods , Retrospective Studies , Models, Statistical , Pandemics/statistics & numerical data , Hospitals/statistics & numerical data , Hospitalization/statistics & numerical data , Bed Occupancy/statistics & numerical data
4.
PLoS Comput Biol ; 20(5): e1011200, 2024 May.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38709852

ABSTRACT

During the COVID-19 pandemic, forecasting COVID-19 trends to support planning and response was a priority for scientists and decision makers alike. In the United States, COVID-19 forecasting was coordinated by a large group of universities, companies, and government entities led by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org). We evaluated approximately 9.7 million forecasts of weekly state-level COVID-19 cases for predictions 1-4 weeks into the future submitted by 24 teams from August 2020 to December 2021. We assessed coverage of central prediction intervals and weighted interval scores (WIS), adjusting for missing forecasts relative to a baseline forecast, and used a Gaussian generalized estimating equation (GEE) model to evaluate differences in skill across epidemic phases that were defined by the effective reproduction number. Overall, we found high variation in skill across individual models, with ensemble-based forecasts outperforming other approaches. Forecast skill relative to the baseline was generally higher for larger jurisdictions (e.g., states compared to counties). Over time, forecasts generally performed worst in periods of rapid changes in reported cases (either in increasing or decreasing epidemic phases) with 95% prediction interval coverage dropping below 50% during the growth phases of the winter 2020, Delta, and Omicron waves. Ideally, case forecasts could serve as a leading indicator of changes in transmission dynamics. However, while most COVID-19 case forecasts outperformed a naïve baseline model, even the most accurate case forecasts were unreliable in key phases. Further research could improve forecasts of leading indicators, like COVID-19 cases, by leveraging additional real-time data, addressing performance across phases, improving the characterization of forecast confidence, and ensuring that forecasts were coherent across spatial scales. In the meantime, it is critical for forecast users to appreciate current limitations and use a broad set of indicators to inform pandemic-related decision making.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Forecasting , Pandemics , SARS-CoV-2 , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/transmission , Humans , Forecasting/methods , United States/epidemiology , Pandemics/statistics & numerical data , Computational Biology , Models, Statistical
6.
Respirar (Ciudad Autón. B. Aires) ; 16(1): 45-58, Marzo 2024.
Article in Spanish | LILACS, UNISALUD, BINACIS | ID: biblio-1551209

ABSTRACT

Introducción: La pandemia de COVID-19 causó una elevada mortalidad en el mundo y en el Ecuador. Esta investigación se propuso analizar el exceso de mortalidad debido a la pandemia de COVID-19 en Ecuador. Método: Estudio observacional, longitudinal, cuantitativo y descriptivo. Clasificado como estudio ecológico en el campo de la epidemiología. Este estudio se centra en la medición del exceso de mortalidad durante los años 2020, 2021 y 2022, tomando como período base el promedio de defunciones ocurridas en el intervalo de 2015 a 2019. Resultados: Ecuador, en el período de enero 2020 a octubre 2022, acumuló un exceso total de muertes de 98.915. En el año 2020, el exceso de mortalidad fue mayor a 46.374, siendo el mes de abril el valor más alto de 15.484. En el año 2021, el exceso de muertes fue de 35.859, siendo abril el mes con mayor exceso de 7.330. Y el año 2022 el exceso de mortalidad fue de 16.682, el mes con mayor exceso fue enero con 4.204. Conclusión: Se evidenció un subregistro de defunciones, así como variaciones temporales y geográficas en el exceso de mortalidad. La provincia con mayor número de fallecidos y exceso de mortalidad fue Guayas seguida de Pichincha. Los resultados proporcionan un análisis del panorama durante la emergencia sanitaria, destacando la importancia de evaluar la capacidad de respuesta de los sistemas de salud en momentos de crisis y la necesidad imperativa de implementar medidas correctivas para el futuro.


Introduction: The COVID-19 pandemic caused a significant mortality in the world and in Ecuador. This research aimed to analyze the excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in Ecuador. Method: An observational, longitudinal, quantitative and descriptive study, classified as an ecological study in the field of epidemiology. This study focuses on measuring excess mortality during the years 2020, 2021 and 2022, using the average number of deaths that occurred in the period from 2015 to 2019 as the baseline. Results: From January 2020 to October 2022, Ecuador accumulated a total excess of deaths of 98,915. In 2020, the excess mortality was higher at 46,374, with the highest value occurring in April at 15,484. In 2021, the excess deaths amounted to 35,859, with April having the highest excess of 7,330. In 2022, the excess mortality was 16,682, with January recording the highest excess at 4,204. Conclusion: Evidence of underreporting of deaths, as well as temporal and geographi-cal variations in excess mortality, was observed. The province with the highest number of deaths and excess mortality was Guayas, followed by Pichincha. The results provide an analysis of the situation during the health emergency, emphasizing the importance of evaluating the healthcare system's capacity to respond during times of crisis and the imperative need to implement corrective measures for the future.


Subject(s)
Humans , Male , Female , SARS-CoV-2 , COVID-19/epidemiology , Health Systems/organization & administration , Mortality , Ecuador/epidemiology , Pandemics/statistics & numerical data , Health Services
9.
Anaerobe ; 86: 102836, 2024 Apr.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38428802

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES: The aim was to assess the impact of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic on the prevalence, relative incidence (RI), incidence density (ID), ratio of rate incidence (RRI), rate of incidence density (RID), and relative risks (RR) of healthcare-onset Clostridioides difficile infection (HO-CDI) as well as its correlation with the antibiotic consumption. METHODS: Demographic and analytical data of adult patients exhibiting diarrhoea and testing positive for C. difficile were systematically collected from a tertiary care hospital in Madrid (Spain). The periods analysed included: prepandemic (P0), first pandemic-year (P1), and second pandemic-year (P2). We compared global prevalence, RI of HO-CDI per 1,000-admissions, ID of HO-CDI per 10,000-patients-days, RRI, RID, and RR. Antibiotic consumption was obtained by number of defined daily dose per 100 patient-days. RESULTS: In P0, the prevalence of HO-CDI was 7.4% (IC95%: 6.2-8.7); in P1, it increased to 8.7% (IC95%: 7.4-10.1) (p = 0.2), and in P2, it continued to increase to 9.2% (IC95%: 8-10.6) (p < 0.05). During P1, the RRI was 1.5 and RID was 1.4. However, during P2 there was an increase in RRI to 1.6 and RID to 1.6. The RR also reflected the increase in HO-CDI: at P1, the probability of developing HO-CDI was 1.5 times (IC95%: 1.2-1.9) higher than P0, while at P2, this probability increased to 1.6 times (IC95%: 1.3-2.1). There was an increase in prevalence, RI, ID, RR, RRI, and RID during the two postpandemic periods respect to the prepandemic period. During P2, this increase was greater than the P1. Meropenem showed a statistically significant difference increased consumption (p < 0.05) during the pandemic period. Oral vancomycin HO-CDI treatment showed an increase during the period of study (p > 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Implementation of infection control measures during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic did not appear to alleviate the burden of HO-CDI. The escalation in HO-CDI cases did not exhibit a correlation with overall antibiotic consumption, except for meropenem.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Clostridioides difficile , Clostridium Infections , Cross Infection , Tertiary Care Centers , Clostridioides difficile/genetics , Clostridioides difficile/isolation & purification , Clostridium Infections/diagnosis , Clostridium Infections/epidemiology , Clostridium Infections/microbiology , Humans , COVID-19/epidemiology , Diarrhea/epidemiology , Vancomycin/administration & dosage , Cross Infection/diagnosis , Cross Infection/epidemiology , Cross Infection/microbiology , Spain/epidemiology , Retrospective Studies , Incidence , Disease Outbreaks , Prevalence , Anti-Bacterial Agents/administration & dosage , Risk , Pandemics/statistics & numerical data , Infection Control/statistics & numerical data , Meropenem/administration & dosage , Middle Aged , Aged , Aged, 80 and over
10.
JAMA ; 331(7): 592-600, 2024 02 20.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38497697

ABSTRACT

Importance: Residential evictions may have increased excess mortality associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. Objective: To estimate excess mortality associated with the COVID-19 pandemic for renters who received eviction filings (threatened renters). Design, Setting, and Participants: This retrospective cohort study used an excess mortality framework. Mortality based on linked eviction and death records from 2020 through 2021 was compared with projected mortality estimated from similar records from 2010 through 2016. Data from court records between January 1, 2020, and August 31, 2021, were collected via the Eviction Lab's Eviction Tracking System. Similar data from court records between January 1, 2010, and December 31, 2016, also collected by the Eviction Lab, were used to estimate projected mortality during the pandemic. We also constructed 2 comparison groups: all individuals living in the study area and a subsample of those individuals living in high-poverty, high-filing tracts. Exposures: Eviction filing. Main Outcomes and Measures: All-cause mortality in a given month. The difference between observed mortality and projected mortality was used as a measure of excess mortality associated with the pandemic. Results: The cohort of threatened renters during the pandemic period consisted of 282 000 individuals (median age, 36 years [IQR, 28-47]). Eviction filings were 44.7% lower than expected during the study period. The composition of threatened renters by race, ethnicity, sex, and socioeconomic characteristics during the pandemic was comparable with the prepandemic composition. Expected cumulative age-standardized mortality among threatened renters during this 20-month period of the pandemic was 116.5 (95% CI, 104.0-130.3) per 100 000 person-months, and observed mortality was 238.6 (95% CI, 230.8-246.3) per 100 000 person-months or 106% higher than expected. In contrast, expected mortality for the population living in similar neighborhoods was 114.6 (95% CI, 112.1-116.8) per 100 000 person-months, and observed mortality was 142.8 (95% CI, 140.2-145.3) per 100 000 person-months or 25% higher than expected. In the general population across the study area, expected mortality was 83.5 (95% CI, 83.3-83.8) per 100 000 person-months, and observed mortality was 91.6 (95% CI, 91.4-91.8) per 100 000 person-months or 9% higher than expected. The pandemic produced positive excess mortality ratios across all age groups among threatened renters. Conclusions and Relevance: Renters who received eviction filings experienced substantial excess mortality associated with the COVID-19 pandemic.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Housing Instability , Mortality , Social Determinants of Health , Adult , Humans , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/mortality , Pandemics/statistics & numerical data , Retrospective Studies , Social Determinants of Health/statistics & numerical data , Poverty/statistics & numerical data , Middle Aged
11.
Enferm. intensiva (Ed. impr.) ; 35(1): 35-44, ene.-mar. 2024. mapas, tab
Article in Spanish | IBECS | ID: ibc-229932

ABSTRACT

Introducción La pandemia derivada de la infección por SARS-CoV-2 propició cambios en los cuidados tanto a familiares como a pacientes de cuidados intensivos durante las diferentes olas de incidencia del virus. La línea de humanización seguida por la mayoría de los hospitales se vio gravemente afectada por las restricciones aplicadas. Como objetivo, planteamos conocer las modificaciones experimentadas durante las diferentes olas de la pandemia por SARS-CoV-2 en España respecto a la política de visitas a los pacientes en UCI, el acompañamiento al final de la vida, y el uso de las nuevas tecnologías de la comunicación entre familiares, pacientes y profesionales. Métodos Estudio descriptivo transversal multicéntrico mediante encuesta a las UCI españolas desde febrero a abril de 2022. Se realizaron métodos de análisis estadísticos a los resultados según lo apropiado. El estudio fue avalado por la Sociedad Española de Enfermería Intensiva y Unidades Coronarias. Resultados Respondieron un 29% de las unidades contactadas. Los minutos de visita diarios de los familiares se redujeron drásticamente de 135 (87,5-255) a 45 (25-60) en el 21,2% de las unidades que permitían su acceso, mejorando levemente con el paso de las olas. En el caso de duelo, la permisividad fue mayor, aumentando el uso de las nuevas tecnologías para la comunicación paciente-familia en el caso del 96,5% de las unidades. Conclusiones Las familias de los pacientes ingresados en UCI durante las diferentes olas de la pandemia por COVID-19 han experimentado restricciones en las visitas y cambio de la presencialidad por técnicas virtuales de comunicación. Los tiempos de acceso se redujeron a niveles mínimos durante la primera ola, recuperándose con el avance de la pandemia pero sin llegar nunca a los niveles iniciales... (AU)


Introduction The pandemic derived from the SARS-CoV-2 infection led to changes in care for both relatives and intensive care patients during the different waves of incidence of the virus. The line of humanization followed by the majority of the hospitals was seriously affected by the restrictions applied. As an objective, we propose to know the modifications suffered during the different waves of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in Spain regarding the policy of visits to patients in the ICU, monitoring at the end of life, and the use of new technologies of communication between family members, patients and professionals. Methods Multicenter cross-sectional descriptive study through a survey of Spanish ICUs from February to April 2022. Statistical analysis methods were performed on the results as appropriate. The study was endorsed by the Spanish Society of Intensive Nursing and Coronary Units. Results Twenty-nine percent of the units contacted responded. The daily visiting minutes of relatives dropped drastically from 135 (87.5-255) to 45 (25-60) in the 21.2% of units that allowed their access, improving slightly with the passing of the waves. In the case of bereavement, the permissiveness was greater, increasing the use of new technologies for patient-family communication in the case of 96.5% of the units. Conclusions The family of patients admitted to the ICU during the different waves of the COVID-19 pandemic have suffered restrictions on visits and a change from face-to-face to virtual communication techniques. Access times were reduced to minimum levels during the first wave, recovering with the advance of the pandemic but never reaching initial levels. Despite the implemented solutions and virtual communication, efforts should be directed towards improving the protocols for the humanization of healthcare that allow caring for families and patients whatever the healthcare context. (AU)


Subject(s)
Humans , Young Adult , Adult , Middle Aged , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Pandemics/statistics & numerical data , Intensive Care Units/ethics , Humanization of Assistance , Critical Care/ethics , Critical Care/statistics & numerical data , Patient Isolation/ethics , Health Communication/ethics , Epidemiology, Descriptive , Cross-Sectional Studies , Multicenter Studies as Topic , Spain
12.
Enferm. intensiva (Ed. impr.) ; 35(1): 35-44, ene.-mar. 2024. mapas, tab
Article in Spanish | IBECS | ID: ibc-EMG-552

ABSTRACT

Introducción La pandemia derivada de la infección por SARS-CoV-2 propició cambios en los cuidados tanto a familiares como a pacientes de cuidados intensivos durante las diferentes olas de incidencia del virus. La línea de humanización seguida por la mayoría de los hospitales se vio gravemente afectada por las restricciones aplicadas. Como objetivo, planteamos conocer las modificaciones experimentadas durante las diferentes olas de la pandemia por SARS-CoV-2 en España respecto a la política de visitas a los pacientes en UCI, el acompañamiento al final de la vida, y el uso de las nuevas tecnologías de la comunicación entre familiares, pacientes y profesionales. Métodos Estudio descriptivo transversal multicéntrico mediante encuesta a las UCI españolas desde febrero a abril de 2022. Se realizaron métodos de análisis estadísticos a los resultados según lo apropiado. El estudio fue avalado por la Sociedad Española de Enfermería Intensiva y Unidades Coronarias. Resultados Respondieron un 29% de las unidades contactadas. Los minutos de visita diarios de los familiares se redujeron drásticamente de 135 (87,5-255) a 45 (25-60) en el 21,2% de las unidades que permitían su acceso, mejorando levemente con el paso de las olas. En el caso de duelo, la permisividad fue mayor, aumentando el uso de las nuevas tecnologías para la comunicación paciente-familia en el caso del 96,5% de las unidades. Conclusiones Las familias de los pacientes ingresados en UCI durante las diferentes olas de la pandemia por COVID-19 han experimentado restricciones en las visitas y cambio de la presencialidad por técnicas virtuales de comunicación. Los tiempos de acceso se redujeron a niveles mínimos durante la primera ola, recuperándose con el avance de la pandemia pero sin llegar nunca a los niveles iniciales... (AU)


Introduction The pandemic derived from the SARS-CoV-2 infection led to changes in care for both relatives and intensive care patients during the different waves of incidence of the virus. The line of humanization followed by the majority of the hospitals was seriously affected by the restrictions applied. As an objective, we propose to know the modifications suffered during the different waves of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in Spain regarding the policy of visits to patients in the ICU, monitoring at the end of life, and the use of new technologies of communication between family members, patients and professionals. Methods Multicenter cross-sectional descriptive study through a survey of Spanish ICUs from February to April 2022. Statistical analysis methods were performed on the results as appropriate. The study was endorsed by the Spanish Society of Intensive Nursing and Coronary Units. Results Twenty-nine percent of the units contacted responded. The daily visiting minutes of relatives dropped drastically from 135 (87.5-255) to 45 (25-60) in the 21.2% of units that allowed their access, improving slightly with the passing of the waves. In the case of bereavement, the permissiveness was greater, increasing the use of new technologies for patient-family communication in the case of 96.5% of the units. Conclusions The family of patients admitted to the ICU during the different waves of the COVID-19 pandemic have suffered restrictions on visits and a change from face-to-face to virtual communication techniques. Access times were reduced to minimum levels during the first wave, recovering with the advance of the pandemic but never reaching initial levels. Despite the implemented solutions and virtual communication, efforts should be directed towards improving the protocols for the humanization of healthcare that allow caring for families and patients whatever the healthcare context. (AU)


Subject(s)
Humans , Young Adult , Adult , Middle Aged , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Pandemics/statistics & numerical data , Intensive Care Units/ethics , Humanization of Assistance , Critical Care/ethics , Critical Care/statistics & numerical data , Patient Isolation/ethics , Health Communication/ethics , Epidemiology, Descriptive , Cross-Sectional Studies , Multicenter Studies as Topic , Spain
14.
BMC Public Health ; 24(1): 380, 2024 02 05.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38317148

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: During a COVID-19 pandemic, it is imperative to investigate the outcomes of all non-COVID-19 diseases. This study determines hospital admissions and mortality rates related to non-COVID-19 diseases during the COVID-19 pandemic among 41 million Iranians. METHOD: This nationwide retrospective study used data from the Iran Health Insurance Organization. From September 23, 2019, to Feb 19, 2022, there were four study periods: pre-pandemic (Sept 23-Feb 19, 2020), first peak (Mar 20-Apr 19, 2020), first year (Feb 20, 2020-Feb 18, 2021), and the second year (Feb 19, 2021-Feb 19, 2022) following the pandemic. Cause-specific hospital admission and in-hospital mortality are the main outcomes analyzed based on age and sex. Negative binomial regression was used to estimate the monthly adjusted Incidence Rate Ratio (IRR) to compare hospital admission rates in aggregated data. A logistic regression was used to estimate the monthly adjusted in-hospital mortality Odds Ratio (OR) for different pandemic periods. RESULTS: During the study there were 6,522,114 non-COVID-19 hospital admissions and 139,679 deaths. Prior to the COVID-19 outbreak, the standardized hospital admission rate per million person-month was 7115.19, which decreased to 2856.35 during the first peak (IRR 0.40, [0.25-0.64]). In-hospital mortality also increased from 20.20 to 31.99 (OR 2.05, [1.97-2.13]). All age and sex groups had decreased admission rates, except for females at productive ages. Two years after the COVID-19 outbreak, the non-COVID-19 hospital admission rate (IRR 1.25, [1.13-1.40]) and mortality rate (OR 1.05, [1.04-1.07]) increased compared to the rates before the pandemic. The respiratory disease admission rate decreased in the first (IRR 0.23, [0.17-0.31]) and second years (IRR 0.35, [0.26-0.47] compared to the rate before the pandemic. There was a significant reduction in hospitalizations for pneumonia (IRR 0.30, [0.21-0.42]), influenza (IRR 0.04, [0.03-0.06]) and COPD (IRR 0.39, [0.23-0.65]) during the second year. There was a significant and continuous rise in the hematological admission rate during the study, reaching 186.99 per million person-month in the second year, reflecting an IRR of 2.84 [2.42-3.33] compared to the pre-pandemic period. The mortality rates of mental disorders (OR 2.15, [1.65-2.78]) and musculoskeletal (OR 1.48, [1.20-1.82), nervous system (OR 1.42, [1.26-1.60]), metabolic (OR 1.99, [1.80-2.19]) and circulatory diseases (OR 1.35, [1.31-1.39]) increased in the second year compare to pre-pandemic. Myocardial infarction (OR 1.33, [1.19-1.49]), heart failure (OR 1.59, [1.35-1.87]) and stroke (OR 1.35, [1.24-1.47]) showed an increase in mortality rates without changes in hospitalization. CONCLUSIONS: In the era of COVID-19, the changes seem to have had a long-term effect on non-COVID-19 diseases. Countries should prepare for similar crises in the future to ensure medical services are not suspended.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Hospitalization , Mortality , Female , Humans , COVID-19/epidemiology , Hospitalization/statistics & numerical data , Iran/epidemiology , Middle Eastern People/statistics & numerical data , Myocardial Infarction/epidemiology , Pandemics/statistics & numerical data , Retrospective Studies , Longitudinal Studies , Mortality/trends , Male
16.
Ann Ig ; 36(2): 234-249, 2024.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38265640

ABSTRACT

Background: Improving the quality and effectiveness of healthcare is a key priority in health policy. The emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic has exerted considerable pressure on hospital networks, requiring unprecedented reorganization and restructuring actions. This study analyzed data from the Italian National Outcomes Program to compare some volumes and outcomes of public and private accredited hospitals in the Lombardy Region with national data. Study design: Observational study. Methods: A thorough examination of hospital outcomes between 2019 and 2021 was conducted, considering 45 volume indicators and 48 process and outcome indicators, comparing Lombardy with other Italian regions and public versus private accredited hospitals. Results: In 2020, Italy and Lombardy experienced a considerable reduction in overall hospital admissions, with Lombardy showing a deeper decline (21.3% compared with 16.0% in Italy). In 2021, both experienced a partial recovery, especially marked in the Lombardy region (+7.3%, compared with national data). Focusing specifically on the private sector in Lombardy, a recovery of +9.3% in hospitalization was observed. In the analysis of clinical outcomes, Lombardy outperformed the national average for 63% of the indicators in 2020 and 83.3% in 2021. Conclusions: The study shows the continuing decline in volumes compared to 2019 (pre-COVID), the excellent performance of hospitals in Lombardy and a relevant contribution for the volumes and the quality of outcomes of private accredited hospitals.


Subject(s)
Hospitalization , Quality of Health Care , Humans , COVID-19/epidemiology , Hospitalization/statistics & numerical data , Hospitalization/trends , Hospitals/statistics & numerical data , Hospitals/trends , Italy , Pandemics/statistics & numerical data , Quality of Health Care/statistics & numerical data
17.
Demography ; 61(1): 59-85, 2024 Feb 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38197462

ABSTRACT

Research on the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States has consistently found disproportionately high mortality among ethnoracial minorities, but reports differ with respect to the magnitude of mortality disparities and reach different conclusions regarding which groups were most impacted. We suggest that these variations stem from differences in the temporal scope of the mortality data used and difficulties inherent in measuring race and ethnicity. To circumvent these issues, we link Social Security Administration death records for 2010 through 2021 to decennial census and American Community Survey race and ethnicity responses. We use these linked data to estimate excess all-cause mortality for age-, sex-, race-, and ethnicity-specific subgroups and examine ethnoracial variation in excess mortality across states and over the course of the pandemic's first year. Results show that non-Hispanic American Indians and Alaska Natives experienced the highest excess mortality of any ethnoracial group in the first year of the pandemic, followed by Hispanics and non-Hispanic Blacks. Spatiotemporal and age-specific ethnoracial disparities suggest that the socioeconomic determinants driving health disparities prior to the pandemic were amplified and expressed in new ways in the pandemic's first year to disproportionately concentrate excess mortality among racial and ethnic minorities.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Pandemics , Humans , Black or African American/statistics & numerical data , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/ethnology , COVID-19/mortality , Ethnicity/statistics & numerical data , Hispanic or Latino/statistics & numerical data , Pandemics/statistics & numerical data , United States/epidemiology , American Indian or Alaska Native/statistics & numerical data
18.
JAMA ; 331(5): 382-383, 2024 02 06.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38214935

ABSTRACT

This Medical News story discusses JN.1, recently classified as a SARS-CoV-2 "variant of interest" by the World Health Organization.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Humans , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/virology , SARS-CoV-2 , Pandemics/statistics & numerical data
20.
Arq. ciências saúde UNIPAR ; 27(2): 754-769, Maio-Ago. 2023.
Article in Portuguese | LILACS | ID: biblio-1424943

ABSTRACT

A pandemia do novo coronavírus colocou em alerta os sistemas de saúde, estabelecendo sentimentos de instabilidade e de medo. O trabalho é e importante pilar para o traçado de políticas públicas. Objetivo: analisar a contaminação pelo COVID-19 em profissionais de hospital de referência no Pará. Metodologia: Trata-se de estudo retrospectivo, quantitativo, observacional, com aplicação de série temporal no período de março de 2020 a março de 2022. Foram incluídos todos os servidores atuantes durante a pandemia, que apresentaram atestados médicos com diagnóstico de COVID, e/ou testagem positiva, ou atestados por suspeita de contaminação. O perfil de servidores foi analisado, explorando as variáveis sexo, idade, convivência ou não com parceiros, grau de escolaridade, cargo e setor; juntamente com a incidência de casos confirmados e incidência total (suspeitos e confirmados). Resultados: O total de afastamentos do trabalho devido ao diagnóstico de COVID-19 foi de 1.420 casos, mais 839 casos suspeitos; sendo que 173 trabalhadores apresentaram reincidência. A incidência foi maior nos meses de maio de 2020, março de 2021 e janeiro de 2022. Houve predominância do sexo feminino e da categoria de enfermagem. Setores administrativos e financeiros apresentaram maior porcentagem de contaminados durante a pandemia (73,40%), proporcionalmente ao quantitativo de servidores atuantes na lotação. Entretanto, foram servidores da assistência direta ao paciente que apresentaram maior porcentagem de reinfecção. Conclusão: Foi possível visualizar três ondas na distribuição temporal dos casos de COVID-19, com destaque para elevação nos primeiros meses de 2022. O declínio no diagnóstico de casos novos no hospital estudado após dois anos de pandemia pode representar esforços individuais e coletivos em resistir às dificuldades da conjuntura. É importante observar o comportamento da pandemia em distintas regiões do Brasil para atualização de estratégias de enfrentamento como um todo.


The new coronavirus pandemic has put health systems on alert, establishing feelings of instability and fear. Working is an important pillar for the design of public policies. Objective: to analyze the contamination by COVID-19 in professionals of a reference hospital in Para's State. Methodology: This is a retrospective, quantitative, observational study, with the application of a time series from March 2020 to March 2022. All civil servants working during the pandemic, who presented medical certificates with a diagnosis of COVID, and/or or positive test, or attestations for suspected contamination. The servants' profile was analyzed, exploring the variables sex, age, living or not with partners, education level, position and sector; along with the incidence of confirmed cases and total incidence (suspected and confirmed). Results: The total number of absences from work due to the diagnosis of COVID-19 was 1,420 cases, plus 839 suspected cases; 173 workers presented recurrence. The incidence was higher in the months of May 2020, March 2021 and January 2022. There was a predominance of females and the nursing category. Administrative and financial sectors had a higher percentage of people infected during the pandemic (73.40%), proportionally to the number of servers working in the capacity. However, it was direct patient care workers who had the highest percentage of reinfection. Conclusion: It was possible to visualize three waves in the temporal distribution of COVID-19 cases, with emphasis on an increase in the first months of 2022. The decline in the diagnosis of new cases in the hospital studied after two years of the pandemic may represent individual and collective efforts to resist to the difficulties of the situation. It is important to observe the behavior of the pandemic in different regions of Brazil to update coping strategies in a general scenery.


La nueva pandemia de coronavirus ha puesto en alerta a los sistemas de salud, estableciendo sentimientos de inestabilidad y miedo. El trabajo es un pilar importante para el diseño de políticas públicas. Objetivo: analizar la contaminación por COVID-19 en profesionales de un hospital de referencia en el Estado de Pará. Metodología: Se trata de un estudio retrospectivo, cuantitativo, observacional, con la aplicación de una serie de tiempo de marzo de 2020 a marzo de 2022. Todos los funcionarios que trabajaron durante la pandemia, que presentaron certificados médicos con diagnóstico de COVID, y/o o test positivo, o atestados por sospecha de contaminación. Se analizó el perfil de los funcionarios, explorando las variables sexo, edad, convivencia o no con la pareja, nivel de escolaridad, cargo y sector; junto con la incidencia de casos confirmados y la incidencia total (sospechosos y confirmados). Resultados: El número total de bajas laborales por diagnóstico de COVID-19 fue de 1.420 casos, más 839 casos sospechosos; 173 trabajadores presentaron recurrencia. La incidencia fue mayor en los meses de mayo de 2020, marzo de 2021 y enero de 2022. Hubo predominio del sexo femenino y de la categoría de enfermería. Los sectores administrativo y financiero presentaron mayor porcentaje de infectados durante la pandemia (73,40%), proporcionalmente al número de servidores que trabajaban en esa función. Sin embargo, fueron los trabajadores de atención directa al paciente los que presentaron el mayor porcentaje de reinfección. Conclusiones: Fue posible visualizar tres olas en la distribución temporal de los casos de COVID-19, destacándose un aumento en los primeros meses de 2022. La disminución en el diagnóstico de nuevos casos en el hospital estudiado después de dos años de pandemia puede representar esfuerzos individuales y colectivos para resistir a las dificultades de la situación. Es importante observar el comportamiento de la pandemia en diferentes regiones de Brasil para actualizar las estrategias de afrontamiento en un escenario general.


Subject(s)
Humans , Male , Female , Health Personnel/statistics & numerical data , COVID-19/epidemiology , Hospitals/statistics & numerical data , Retrospective Studies , Occupational Health , Disease Transmission, Infectious , Pandemics/statistics & numerical data , Government Employees , Reinfection/epidemiology , Health Services Research
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