Poliomyelitis and COVID-19: a repeated history.

The measurement of the enterovirus and the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in sewage water is relevant in the early detection of the introduction or disappearance of these viruses in the ecosystem. We evaluated the co-circulation of the enteroviruses and SARS-CoV-2 in 81 sewage water samples collected between September 2021 and April 2023 from different regions of north and southeast Romania, at the border with Ukraine. We used, for the molecular detection of the pathogens, the multiplex real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assay produced for respiratory samples and the Respiratory 2.1 Plus panel Biofire Film array. The isolation of enteroviruses was performed on cell culture lines, in accordance with the World Health Organization (WHO) recommendations. By molecular investigations, we detected the SARS-CoV-2 in 22 (27%) samples, and the human rhinovirus/enterovirus in 64 (79%) samples. By isolation on cell culture lines, 27 samples (33,33%) were positive for non-polio enteroviruses, and no poliovirus strains were isolated, proving the maintenance of the polio-free status in Romania. In an emergency situation, the molecular detection of the pathogens in sewage water using a PCR system integrating sample preparation, amplification, detection, and analysis in 1 h could be implemented.

Genetic stabilization of attenuated oral vaccines against poliovirus types 1 and 3.

Vaccination with Sabin, a live attenuated oral polio vaccine (OPV), results in robust intestinal and humoral immunity and has been key to controlling poliomyelitis. As with any RNA virus, OPV evolves rapidly to lose attenuating determinants critical to the reacquisition of virulence1-3 resulting in vaccine-derived, virulent poliovirus variants. Circulation of these variants within underimmunized populations leads to further evolution of circulating, vaccine-derived poliovirus with higher transmission capacity, representing a significant risk of polio re-emergence. A new type 2 OPV (nOPV2), with promising clinical data on genetic stability and immunogenicity, recently received authorization from the World Health Organization for use in response to circulating, vaccine-derived poliovirus outbreaks. Here we report the development of two additional live attenuated vaccine candidates against type 1 and 3 polioviruses. The candidates were generated by replacing the capsid coding region of nOPV2 with that from Sabin 1 or 3. These chimeric viruses show growth phenotypes similar to nOPV2 and immunogenicity comparable to their parental Sabin strains, but are more attenuated. Our experiments in mice and deep sequencing analysis confirmed that the candidates remain attenuated and preserve all the documented nOPV2 characteristics concerning genetic stability following accelerated virus evolution. Importantly, these vaccine candidates are highly immunogenic in mice as monovalent and multivalent formulations and may contribute to poliovirus eradication.

Multiscale model for forecasting Sabin 2 vaccine virus household and community transmission.

Since the global withdrawal of Sabin 2 oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) from routine immunization, the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) has reported multiple circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 (cVDPV2) outbreaks. Here, we generated an agent-based, mechanistic model designed to assess OPV-related vaccine virus transmission risk in populations with heterogeneous immunity, demography, and social mixing patterns. To showcase the utility of our model, we present a simulation of mOPV2-related Sabin 2 transmission in rural Matlab, Bangladesh based on stool samples collected from infants and their household contacts during an mOPV2 clinical trial. Sabin 2 transmission following the mOPV2 clinical trial was replicated by specifying multiple, heterogeneous contact rates based on household and community membership. Once calibrated, the model generated Matlab-specific insights regarding poliovirus transmission following an accidental point importation or mass vaccination event. We also show that assuming homogeneous contact rates (mass action), as is common of poliovirus forecast models, does not accurately represent the clinical trial and risks overestimating forecasted poliovirus outbreak probability. Our study identifies household and community structure as an important source of transmission heterogeneity when assessing OPV-related transmission risk and provides a calibratable framework for expanding these analyses to other populations. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov This trial is registered with clinicaltrials.gov, NCT02477046.

Culture-Independent Detection of Poliovirus in Stool Samples by Direct RNA Extraction.

Laboratory surveillance for poliovirus (PV) relies on virus isolation by cell culture to identify PV in stool specimens from acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) cases. Although this method successfully identifies PV, it is time-consuming and necessitates the additional biorisk of growing live virus in an increasingly polio-free world. To reduce the risk of culturing PV, the Global Polio Laboratory Network (GPLN) must switch to culture-independent diagnostic methods with sensitivity at least equivalent to that of cell culture procedures. Five commercial nucleic acid extraction kits and one enrichment method were tested for PV extraction efficiency. RNA yield was measured using real-time reverse transcription (RT)-PCR. Based on greater RNA yield, compared with the other kits, the Quick-RNA viral kit was selected for further testing and was optimized using an RNA extraction procedure for stool suspensions. RNA extraction was retrospectively tested with 182 stool samples that had previously tested positive for PVs, in parallel with the standard GPLN virus isolation algorithm. After virus isolation or RNA extraction, real-time RT-PCR assays were performed. RNA extraction was significantly more sensitive than virus isolation (McNemar's test, P < 0.001). Thereafter, the RNA extraction method was tested in parallel for 202 prospective samples; RNA extraction and virus isolation were not significantly different from each other (McNemar's test, P = 0.13). Direct RNA extraction was noninferior to current cell culture methods for detecting PV in stool samples. Our results show that direct RNA extraction can make downstream manipulation safer and can reduce the risk of accidental posteradication viral release. The method is amenable to implementation in a wide variety of polio laboratories. IMPORTANCE Successfully identifying poliovirus from acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) cases is a vital role of the Global Polio Laboratory Network to achieve the goals of the Global Polio Eradication Initiative. Currently, laboratory surveillance relies on virus isolation by cell culture to test for PV present in stool samples. Although this method can identify polioviruses, laboratories must switch to culture-independent methods to reduce the risk associated with growing live viruses in a soon-to-be polio-free world. By implementing this streamlined method, in combination with real-time RT-PCR, laboratories can quickly screen for and type polioviruses of programmatic importance to support the final stages of global polio eradication.

Sensitivity of the acute flaccid paralysis surveillance system for poliovirus in South Africa, 2016-2019.

Introduction. Global poliovirus eradication is a public health emergency of international concern. The acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) surveillance programme in South Africa has been instrumental in eliminating polioviruses and keeping the country poliovirus free.Gap statement. The sensitivity of surveillance for polioviruses by every African country is of global interest in the effort to ensure global health security from poliovirus re-emergence.Aim. To describe the epidemiology of polioviruses from AFP cases and environmental samples in South Africa and to report the performance of the AFP surveillance system for the years 2016-2019 against targets established by the World Health Organization (WHO).Methods. Stool specimens from AFP or suspected AFP cases were received and tested as per WHO guidelines. Environmental samples were gathered from sites across the Gauteng province using the grab collection method. Concentration was effected by the two-phase polyethylene glycol method approved by the WHO. Suspected polioviruses were isolated in RD and/or L20B cell cultures through identification of typical cytopathic effects. The presence of polioviruses was confirmed by intratypic differentiation PCR. All polioviruses were sequenced using the Sanger method, and their VP1 gene analysed for mutations.Results. Data from 4597 samples (2385 cases) were analysed from the years 2016-2019. Two cases of immunodeficiency-associated vaccine-derived poliovirus (iVDPV) type 3 were detected in 2017 and 2018. A further 24 Sabin type 1 or type 3 polioviruses were detected for the 4 years. The national surveillance programme detected an average of 3.1 cases of AFP/100 000 individuals under 15 years old (2.8/100 000-3.5/100 000). The stool adequacy of the samples received was 53.0 % (47.0-55.0%), well below the WHO target of 80 % adequacy. More than 90 % of results were released from the laboratory within the turnaround time (96.6 %) and non-polio enteroviruses were detected in 11.6 % of all samples. Environmental surveillance detected non-polio enterovirus in 87.5 % of sewage samples and Sabin polioviruses in 12.5 % of samples.Conclusion. The AFP surveillance programme in South Africa is sensitive to detect polioviruses in South Africa and provided no evidence of wild poliovirus or VDPV circulation in the country.

Environmental Surveillance for Risk Assessment in the Context of a Phase 2 Clinical Trial of Type 2 Novel Oral Polio Vaccine in Panama.

Environmental surveillance was recommended for risk mitigation in a novel oral polio vaccine-2 (nOPV2) clinical trial (M5-ABMG) to monitor excretion, potential circulation, and loss of attenuation of the two nOPV2 candidates. The nOPV2 candidates were developed to address the risk of poliovirus (PV) type 2 circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus (cVDPV) as part of the global eradication strategy. Between November 2018 and January 2020, an environmental surveillance study for the clinical trial was conducted in parallel to the M5-ABMG clinical trial at five locations in Panama. The collection sites were located upstream from local treatment plant inlets, to capture the excreta from trial participants and their community. Laboratory analyses of 49 environmental samples were conducted using the two-phase separation method. Novel OPV2 strains were not detected in sewage samples collected during the study period. However, six samples were positive for Sabin-like type 3 PV, two samples were positive for Sabin-like type 1 PV, and non-polio enteroviruses NPEVs were detected in 27 samples. One of the nOPV2 candidates has been granted Emergency Use Listing by the World Health Organization and initial use started in March 2021. This environmental surveillance study provided valuable risk mitigation information to support the Emergency Use Listing application.

Environmental Surveillance for Polioviruses in Haïti (2017-2019): The Dynamic Process for the Establishment and Monitoring of Sampling Sites.

Haïti is at risk for wild poliovirus (WPV) importation and circulation, as well as vaccine-derived poliovirus (VDPV) emergence. Environmental surveillance (ES) for polioviruses was established in Port au Prince and Gonaïves in 2016. During 2017-2019, initial ES sites were re-evaluated, and ES was expanded into Cap Haïtien and Saint Marc. Wastewater samples and data on weather, hour of collection, and sample temperature and pH were collected every 4 weeks during March 2017-December 2019 (272 sampling events) from 21 sites in Cap Haïtien, Gonaïves, Port au Prince, and Saint Marc. Samples were processed for the detection of polio and non-polio enteroviruses using the two-phase and "Concentration and Filter Elution" methodologies. Polioviruses were serotyped and underwent intra-typic characterization. No WPV or VDPVs were isolated. Sabin-like polioviruses (oral vaccine strain) of serotypes 1 and 3 were sporadically detected. Five of six (83%), one of six (17%), five of six (83%), and two of three (67%) sites evaluated in Cap Haïtien, Gonaïves, Port au Prince, and Saint Marc, respectively, had enterovirus isolation from >50% of sampling events; these results and considerations, such as watershed population size and overlap, influence of sea water, and excessive particulates in samples, were factors in site retention or termination. The evaluation of 21 ES sampling sites in four Haïtian cities led to the termination of 11 sites. Every-four-weekly sampling continues at the remaining 10 sites across the four cities as a core Global Polio Eradication Initiative activity.

Circulation and Molecular Epidemiology of Enteroviruses in Paralyzed, Immunodeficient and Healthy Individuals in Tunisia, a Country with a Polio-Free Status for Decades.

This report is an overview of enterovirus (EV) detection in Tunisian polio-suspected paralytic cases (acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) cases), healthy contacts and patients with primary immunodeficiencies (PID) during an 11-year period. A total of 2735 clinical samples were analyzed for EV isolation and type identification, according to the recommended protocols of the World Health Organization. Three poliovirus (PV) serotypes and 28 different nonpolio enteroviruses (NPEVs) were detected. The NPEV detection rate was 4.3%, 2.8% and 12.4% in AFP cases, healthy contacts and PID patients, respectively. The predominant species was EV-B, and the circulation of viruses from species EV-A was noted since 2011. All PVs detected were of Sabin origin. The PV detection rate was higher in PID patients compared to AFP cases and contacts (6.8%, 1.5% and 1.3% respectively). PV2 was not detected since 2015. Using nucleotide sequencing of the entire VP1 region, 61 strains were characterized as Sabin-like. Among them, six strains of types 1 and 3 PV were identified as pre-vaccine-derived polioviruses (VDPVs). Five type 2 PV, four strains belonging to type 1 PV and two strains belonging to type 3 PV, were classified as iVDPVs. The data presented provide a comprehensive picture of EVs circulating in Tunisia over an 11-year period, reveal changes in their epidemiology as compared to previous studies and highlight the need to set up a warning system to avoid unnoticed PVs.

Poliovirus-nonsusceptible Vero cell line for the World Health Organization global action plan.

Polio or poliomyelitis is a disabling and life-threatening disease caused by poliovirus (PV). As a consequence of global polio vaccination efforts, wild PV serotypes 2 and 3 have been eradicated around the world, and wild PV serotype 1-transmitted cases have been largely eliminated except for limited regions. However, vaccine-derived PV, pathogenically reverted live PV vaccine strains, has become a serious issue. For the global eradication of polio, the World Health Organization is conducting the third edition of the Global Action Plan, which is requesting stringent control of potentially PV-infected materials. To facilitate the mission, we generated a PV-nonsusceptible Vero cell subline, which may serve as an ideal replacement of standard Vero cells to isolate emerging/re-emerging viruses without the risk of generating PV-infected materials.

Molecular epidemiology of enteroviruses and predominance of echovirus 30 in an Iranian population with aseptic meningitis.

Human enteroviruses are the most prevalent causes of aseptic meningitis worldwide. However, despite such predominancy, defining the enteroviral etiology of aseptic meningitis remains a diagnostic dilemma for the clinician in Iran. Therefore, this study was conducted to characterize the prevalence and clinical significance of enteroviral aseptic meningitis as well as the predominant enterovirus serotypes among patients with aseptic meningitis in the South of Iran.Cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) specimens were obtained from 73 patients with aseptic meningitis (52.1% males and 47.9% females), ages ranging from 1 month to 88 years. Following the extraction of nucleic acid, the detection of enteroviruses was performed by RT-PCR, targeting the 5' untranslated region of the genome, and sequencing. Enteroviruses were found in 46.6% of samples (34/73). The most predominant serotype was echovirus 30, followed by coxsackievirus B5 and poliovirus type 1 Sabin strain. The enterovirus infections were more prevalent among female patients (58.8%) and those below 5 years of age (52.9%). Although enterovirus infections were observed throughout the year, the infections were more prevalent during autumn with fever as the predominant clinical symptom. The outcomes revealed that enteroviruses are significant causes of aseptic meningitis in the South of Iran, while suspected cases of aseptic meningitis are usually monitored by bacterial culture and biochemical testing of CSF samples. Therefore, the etiology remains unknown in most cases. Molecular detection of viral pathogens should be included as a common approach in the screening of patients with aseptic meningitis to prevent unnecessary treatment and to improve clinical management.

PREVALENCE OF NEUTRALIZING ANTIBODIES AGAINST POLIOVIRUS 1, 2, AND 3 IN HEALTHCARE PROFESSIONALS AGED 20-50 YEARS.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the prevalence of neutralizing antibodies against poliovirus (PV1, PV2, and PV3) in blood samples of healthcare professionals aged 20 to 50 years. METHODS: Health professionals who serve children at Darcy Vargas Children's Hospital and the Department of Pediatrics of Irmandade da Santa Casa de São Paulo. The sample size was calculated at 323 participants. The Mantel-Haenszel chi-square was used to verify differences between groups. The neutralization reaction detected human poliovirus antibodies. For susceptible individuals, vaccination with the inactivated+triple acellular polio vaccine was performed, and neutralizing antibodies were re-dosed after one week. RESULTS: 333 professionals were studied - 92.8% were immune to poliovirus 1, 86.5% to poliovirus 2, and 63.3% to poliovirus 3; 37% had titers less than 1:8 for any serotype, 5;1% had titers below 1:8 for all three. Vaccination with inactivated polio vaccine was performed for susceptible participants, and neutralizing antibodies were dosed after one week, showing increased titers for all polioviruses. CONCLUSIONS: Despite the detection of a significant percentage of individuals with low poliovirus antibody titer, the challenge with vaccination demonstrated immune response compatible with poliovirus immunity.

Molecular characterization of non-polio enteroviruses isolated from acute flaccid paralysis patients in Uganda.

Enteroviruses (EVs) are RNA viruses that can cause many clinical syndromes including acute flaccid paralysis (AFP). Within the global polio laboratory network, EVs are categorized either as polioviruses or non-polio enteroviruses (NPEVs). Specific NPEVs have been described in polio-like residual paralytic events in AFP patients. Retrospective analysis of 112 NPEV isolates from AFP patients was performed and thirty one NPEV types were identified of which 91% were Enterovirus B and 9% were Enterovirus A species. The NPEVs were distributed across the country with most patients in the eastern region (41/89; 46.1%). The highest proportion of patients were children less than 5 years (77/89; 86.5%) and male patients were more common (54/89; 60.7%). Echovirus 11 (11/89; 12.4%) was frequently observed and phylogenetic analysis of these sequences revealed high diversity. Coxsackievirus B5 (CV-B5), CV-B6, E21, and EV-B69 were only seen in patients with residual paralysis. Analyses of the EV-A71 sequence indicated a unique genogroup.

Poliomielitis, una historia de inicio triste y final feliz / Poliomyelitis, a story with a sad beginning and a happy ending

Se desarrollan los principales elementos históricos en el estudio y la lucha contra la poliomielitis, su aislamiento por Karl Landsteiner en 1909, la primera vacuna con virus muerto (Jonas Salk, 1955), la segunda vacuna con virus vivo atenuado (Albert Sabin, 1961) y la reducción paulatina de la polio en todo el mundo, hasta llegar a menos de 200 casos al año (virus salvaje)(AU)

The main historical events in the study and fight against polio are shown, its isolation by Karl Landsteiner in 1909, the development of the first vaccine with dead virus (Jonas Salk, 1955), the second vaccine with live attenuated virus (Albert Sabin, 1961) and the gradual reduction of polio worldwide, reaching less than 200 cases a year (wild virus)(AU)

[Discovery of Foci of Type-2 Poliovirus Derived from Oral Polio Vaccine in Central African Republic in 2019]. / Découverte de Foyers de Poliovirus de Type-2 Dérivé du Vaccin Antipoliomyélitique Oral en République Centrafricaine en 2019.

Objective: In 2019, the Central African Republic identified foci of circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus 2 (PVDV2c). The objective of this work is to describe the vaccination status of children paralyzed by PVDV2c and their contacts and to assess the circulation of this strain in these contacts. Patients and method: The study population of this retrospective survey consists of children with acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) and their contacts. We included paralyzed children whose sequencing results showed the presence of PVDV2c. Results: A total of 21 children paralyzed by PVDVc and 64 contacts were enrolled in the survey. Fourteen out of 21 children who are paralyzed (66%) received at least one dose of bivalent oral polio vaccine (OPV) compared to 36 out of 64 contacts (57%, non-significant difference). Of the vaccinated patients, 7 had received less than three doses. For the injectable polio vaccine (IPV), vaccination coverage for both patients and contacts was 33%.The proportion of children who received both doses of OPV and IPV was 33% among patients and 25% in contacts. Contacts with VDPV2 were vaccinated with OPV and IPV, respectively 55 and 27%. VDPV2 and Sabin 2 were also found in contact stools, 34% and 9% respectively. Conclusion: The absence or inadequacy of IPV vaccination has a serious impact on children by the occurrence of virus derived from the vaccine responsible for life-old paralysis. Protecting children from poliomyelitis requires a combination of a good cold chain, multiple doses and adherence to the vaccine schedule.

The Early Evolution of Oral Poliovirus Vaccine Is Shaped by Strong Positive Selection and Tight Transmission Bottlenecks.

The emergence of circulating vaccine-derived polioviruses through evolution of the oral polio vaccine (OPV) poses a significant obstacle to polio eradication. Understanding the early genetic changes that occur as OPV evolves and transmits is important for preventing future outbreaks. Here, we use deep sequencing to define the evolutionary trajectories of type 2 OPV in a vaccine trial. By sequencing 497 longitudinal stool samples from 271 OPV2 recipients and household contacts, we were able to examine the extent of convergent evolution in vaccinated individuals and the amount of viral diversity that is transmitted. In addition to rapid reversion of key attenuating mutations, we identify strong selection at 19 sites across the genome. We find that a tight transmission bottleneck limits the onward transmission of these early adaptive mutations. Our results highlight the distinct evolutionary dynamics of live attenuated virus vaccines and have important implications for the success of next-generation OPV.

Reflections on Modeling Poliovirus Transmission and the Polio Eradication Endgame.

The Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) partners engaged modelers during the past nearly 20 years to support strategy and policy discussions and decisions, and to provide estimates of the risks, costs, and benefits of different options for managing the polio endgame. Limited efforts to date provided insights related to the validation of the models used for GPEI strategy and policy decisions. However, modeling results only influenced decisions in some cases, with other factors carrying more weight in many key decisions. In addition, the results from multiple modeling groups do not always agree, which supports selection of some strategies and/or policies counter to the recommendations from some modelers but not others. This analysis reflects on our modeling, and summarizes our premises and recommendations, the outcomes of these recommendations, and the implications of key limitations of models with respect to polio endgame strategy. We briefly review the current state of the GPEI given epidemiological experience as of early 2020, which includes failure of the GPEI to deliver on the objectives of its 2013-2018 strategic plan despite full financial support. Looking ahead, we provide context for why the GPEI strategy of global oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) cessation to end all cases of poliomyelitis looks infeasible given the current state of the GPEI and the failure to successfully stop all transmission of serotype 2 live polioviruses within four years of the April-May 2016 coordinated cessation of serotype 2 OPV use in routine immunization.

Insights From Modeling Preventive Supplemental Immunization Activities as a Strategy to Eliminate Wild Poliovirus Transmission in Pakistan and Afghanistan.

Many countries use supplemental immunization activities (SIAs) with oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) to keep their population immunity to transmission high using preventive, planned SIAs (pSIAs) and outbreaks response SIAs (oSIAs). Prior studies suggested that investment in pSIAs saved substantial health and financial costs due to avoided outbreaks. However, questions remain about the benefits of SIAs, particularly with the recent introduction of inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) into routine immunization in all OPV-using countries. The mounting costs of polio eradication activities and the need to respond to oSIAs threatens the use of limited financial resources for pSIAs, including in the remaining countries with endemic transmission of serotype 1 wild poliovirus (WPV1) (i.e., Pakistan and Afghanistan). A recent updated global poliovirus transmission model suggested that the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) is not on track to stop transmission of WPV1 in Pakistan and Afghanistan. We use the updated global model to explore the role of pSIAs to achieve WPV1 eradication. We find that unless Pakistan and Afghanistan manage to increase the quality of bivalent OPV (bOPV) pSIAs, which we model as intensity (i.e., sufficiently high-coverage bOPV pSIAs that reach missed children), the model does not lead to successful eradication of WPV1. Achieving WPV1 eradication, the global objectives of the GPEI, and a successful polio endgame depend on effective and sufficient use of OPV. IPV use plays a negligible role in stopping transmission in Pakistan and Afghanistan and most other countries supported by the GPEI, and more IPV use will not help to stop transmission.

Modeling Poliovirus Transmission in Borno and Yobe, Northeast Nigeria.

Beginning in 2013, multiple local government areas (LGAs) in Borno and Yobe in northeast Nigeria and other parts of the Lake Chad basin experienced a violent insurgency that resulted in substantial numbers of isolated and displaced people. Northeast Nigeria represents the last known reservoir country of wild poliovirus (WPV) transmission in Africa, with detection of paralytic cases caused by serotype 1 WPV in 2016 in Borno and serotype 3 WPV in late 2012. Parts of Borno and Yobe are also problematic areas for transmission of serotype 2 circulating vaccine-derived polioviruses, and they continue to face challenges associated with conflict and inadequate health services in security-compromised areas that limit both immunization and surveillance activities. We model poliovirus transmission of all three serotypes for Borno and Yobe using a deterministic differential equation-based model that includes four subpopulations to account for limitations in access to immunization services and dynamic restrictions in population mixing. We find that accessibility issues and insufficient immunization allow for prolonged poliovirus transmission and potential undetected paralytic cases, although as of the end of 2019, including responsive program activities in the modeling suggest die out of indigenous serotypes 1 and 3 WPVs prior to 2020. Specifically, recent and current efforts to access isolated populations and provide oral poliovirus vaccine continue to reduce the risks of sustained and undetected transmission, although some uncertainty remains. Continued improvement in immunization and surveillance in the isolated subpopulations should minimize these risks. Stochastic modeling can build on this analysis to characterize the implications for undetected transmission and confidence about no circulation.

Modeling Undetected Live Poliovirus Circulation After Apparent Interruption of Transmission: Borno and Yobe in Northeast Nigeria.

Silent circulation of polioviruses complicates the polio endgame by affecting the confidence with which we can certify successful eradication (i.e., the end of transmission everywhere) given a long enough period of time with active surveillance and no observed detections. The Global Polio Eradication Initiative continues to use three years without observing paralytic cases caused by wild poliovirus (WPV) infection as an indication of sufficient confidence that poliovirus circulation stopped (assuming good surveillance). Prior modeling demonstrated the complexities of real populations and the imperfect nature of real surveillance systems, and highlighted the need for modeling the specific last reservoirs of undetected circulation. We use a poliovirus transmission model developed for Borno and Yobe to characterize the probability of undetected poliovirus circulation once apparent die-out occurs (i.e., in the absence of epidemiological signals) for WPV serotypes 1 and 3. Specifically, we convert the model to a stochastic form that supports estimates of confidence about no circulation given the time since the last detected event and considering the quality of both immunization and surveillance activities for these states. We find high confidence of no WPV3 circulation, and increasing confidence of WPV1 circulation, which we anticipate will imply high confidence in the absence of any detected cases in mid-2020 so long as Borno and Yobe maintain similar or achieve improved conditions. Our results confirm that gaps in poliovirus surveillance or reaching elimination with borderline sufficient population immunity can substantially increase the time to reach a high confidence about no undetected poliovirus transmission.