What drives wild boar density and population growth in Mediterranean environments?

Accurate prediction of fluctuations of wildlife local number of individuals is crucial for effective population management to minimise human-wildlife conflicts. Climate, habitat, food availability, and density dependence are among the main factors influencing mammalian population dynamics. In southern Europe, precipitation and temperature, particularly during summer have been suggested as key factors affecting wild boar (Sus scrofa L.). However, there is uncertainty regarding the role of these factors and the mechanisms driving population fluctuations. This study utilized long-term data of wild boar populations from 14 study sites collected for 23 years in Catalonia, Spain, to analyse the factors that drive population density and growth rate. Generalized Additive Mixed Models (GAMM) explained respectively, 94 % and 65 % of the density and growth rate variability. Spring precipitation in both current and previous year, female weight, and forest cover (particularly above 60 %) were directly associated with higher wild boar densities and population growth rates. The interaction between crop cover and total annual precipitation also played a significant role in determining population density. Higher densities were linked to lower population growth in the following year, likely due to a density-dependent process. These results suggest that the expected decrease in rainfall linked with global warming may limit the availability of natural resources and potentially slow wild boar population growth. Nevertheless, wild boar can exploit alternative anthropogenic food sources, potentially leading to an increase of human-wildlife conflicts. Therefore, incorporating management policies aimed at restricting wild boar access to human food sources is key for controlling their reproductive output. Additionally, landscape management strategies targeted at diminishing refuge and resource availability in regions experiencing high wild boar impact are essential for contributing to sustainable coexistence between wild boars and human populations.

In vitro evaluation of the potential of mites of the family Macrochelidae (Acari: Mesostigmata) as macrobiological agents against the nematode Haemonchus contortus (Strongylida: Trichostrongylidae).

Small ruminants (sheep and goats) constantly suffer from endoparasitoses caused by gastrointestinal nematodes. Among these, the species Haemonchus contortus (Rudolphi, 1803) is considered to be the one of greatest importance within sheep farming. This nematode is difficult to control due to its resistance to most commercial anthelmintics. The aim of the present study was to assess the potential of macrochelid mites as macrobiological agents for controlling endoparasitoses of sheep caused by the nematode, H. contortus. For this, novel in vitro methodology was used, in which assessments were made not only of the predatory ability but also the population growth of mite species (Macrocheles merdarius, Macrocheles robustulus and Holostaspella bifoliata) when offered larvae of the nematode, H. contortus. The predatory ability of the mites, M. merdarius and H. bifoliata were efficient regarding their predatory ability against H. contortus nematode larvae. The mite, M. merdarius exhibited the highest predation rate with mean distribution values for the treated group of 18656 ± 10091 and for the control group of 1178 ± 712 (P < 0.0001). The species, H. bifoliata presented the highest population growth rate, with a percentage acarid recovery rate of 263% in relation to the number added initially. The data from this in vitro predation experiment suggest that, M. merdarius and H. bifoliata showed promise as macrobiological agents for controlling gastrointestinal endoparasitoses of sheep caused by the nematode, H. contortus given that both species reduced the population of this helminth by more 70% and the number of mites recovered was three times greater than the number added.

Assessing future intra-basin water availability in madagascar: Accounting for climate change, population growth, and land use change.

The Major River Basins in Madagascar (MRBM) play a crucial role in providing water to the Malagasy population as well as the ecosystem. Little is known about the impact of climate change on these basins, and it is not clear what factors have the most significant impact on them. There are two central objectives of this study: 1. To assess the future potential water available for daily life and agriculture use across the MRBM. 2. To compare the projected change within the MRBM with the historical trends analysis and identify the water-stressed basins. In this paper, a new method for assessing the future available Intra-basin water resources combined with the impacts of climate change, land use, and population is proposed. Three imbalance indicators are introduced to quantify the spatial availability (indicator N°1), distribution (indicator N°2), and variability (indicator N°3) of the Potential Water Resources (PWR) available and have been applied to the MRBM. Under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, results showed a decreasing trend of the PWR in most of the basins by 2050 with a rise in evapotranspiration and a decline in precipitation. The increasing trend and uneven distribution of the population and agricultural land upstream/downstream are found to cause the reduction of the PWR available per capita (by 37 %) and agriculture area (by 69 %) across the MRBM. This study predicts water scarcity for most of the basins by 2050, especially in the Mangoro and Onilahy Basins. Upstream populations are expected to grow in Mahajamba, Mahavavy, Betsiboka, Manambolo, Tsiribihina, Mangoro, Onilahy, Mananara, and Mandrare basins, along with an expansion of the downstream agricultural land in Sofia, Betsiboka, Manambolo, Mangoky, and Mandrare basins. These findings enhance the cause-effect relationship between climate change, land use change, population growth, and water scarcity in the MRBM. Urgent action is therefore needed for an efficient and sustainable management of these water-stressed basins.

Long-term population projections: Scenarios of low or rebounding fertility.

The size of the human population is projected to peak in the 21st century. But quantitative projections past 2100 are rare, and none quantify the possibility of a rebound from low fertility to replacement-level fertility. Moreover, the most recent long-term deterministic projections were published a decade ago; since then there has been further global fertility decline. Here we provide updated long-term cohort-component population projections and extend the set of scenarios in the literature to include scenarios in which future fertility (a) stays below replacement or (b) recovers and increases. We also characterize old-age dependency ratios. We show that any stable, long-run size of the world population would persistently depend on when an increase towards replacement fertility begins. Without such an increase, the 400-year span when more than 2 billion people were alive would be a brief spike in history. Indeed, four-fifths of all births-past, present, and future-would have already happened.

Population growth of two limno-terrestrial Antarctic microinvertebrates in different aqueous soil media.

Terrestrial microinvertebrates provide important carbon and nutrient cycling roles in soil environments, particularly in Antarctica where larger macroinvertebrates are absent. The environmental preferences and ecology of rotifers and tardigrades in terrestrial environments, including in Antarctica, are not as well understood as their temperate aquatic counterparts. Developing laboratory cultures is critical to provide adequate numbers of individuals for controlled laboratory experimentation. In this study, we explore aspects of optimising laboratory culturing for two terrestrially sourced Antarctic microinvertebrates, a rotifer (Habrotrocha sp.) and a tardigrade (Acutuncus antarcticus). We tested a soil elutriate and a balanced salt solution (BSS) to determine their suitability as culturing media. Substantial population growth of rotifers and tardigrades was observed in both media, with mean rotifer population size increasing from 5 to 448 ± 95 (soil elutriate) and 274 ± 78 (BSS) individuals over 60 days and mean tardigrade population size increasing from 5 to 187 ± 65 (soil elutriate) and 138 ± 37 (BSS) over 160 days. We also tested for optimal dilution of soil elutriate in rotifer cultures, with 20-80% dilutions producing the largest population growth with the least variation in the 40% dilution after 36 days. Culturing methods developed in this study are recommended for use with Antarctica microinvertebrates and may be suitable for similar limno-terrestrial microinvertebrates from other regions.

Stage-Specific Demographic Effects of Hydrologic Variation in a Stream Salamander.

AbstractWe lack a strong understanding of how organisms with complex life histories respond to climate variation. Many stream-associated species have multistage life histories that are likely to influence the demographic consequences of floods and droughts. However, tracking stage-specific demographic responses requires high-resolution, long-term data that are rare. We used 8 years of capture-recapture data for the headwater stream salamander Gyrinophilus porphyriticus to quantify the effects of flooding and drying magnitude on stage-specific vital rates and population growth. Drying reduced larval recruitment but increased the probability of metamorphosis (i.e., adult recruitment). Flooding reduced adult recruitment but had no effect on larval recruitment. Larval and adult survival declined with flooding but were unaffected by drying. Annual population growth rates (λ) declined with flooding and drying. Lambda also declined over the study period (2012-2021), although mean λ was 1.0 over this period. Our results indicate that G. porphyriticus populations are resilient to hydrologic variation because of compensatory effects on recruitment of larvae versus adults (i.e., reproduction vs. metamorphosis). Complex life cycles may enable this resilience to climate variation by creating opportunities for compensatory demographic responses across stages. However, more frequent and intense hydrologic variation in the latter half of this study contributed to a decline in λ over time, suggesting that increasing environmental variability poses a threat even when demographic compensation occurs.

Xrn1 Exoribonuclease-An Intrinsic Marker of Yeast Population Growth.

BACKGROUND: Xrn1 exoribonuclease is the major mRNA degradation enzyme in Saccharomyces cerevisiae. In exponentially growing cells, Xrn1 is localised in the yeast cells and directs the degradation of mRNA molecules. Xrn1 is gradually deposited and presumably inactivated in the processing bodies (P-bodies) as the yeast population ages. Xrn1 can also localise to the membrane compartment of the arginine permease Can1/eisosome compartment at the yeast plasma membrane. This localisation correlates with the metabolic (diauxic) shift from glucose fermentation to respiration, although the relevance of this Xrn1 localisation remains unknown. METHODS: We monitored the growth rates and morphology of Xrn1-green fluorescent protein (GFP) cells compared to wild-type and Δxrn1 cells and observed the Xrn1-GFP localisation pattern in different media types for up to 72 hours using fluorescence microscopy. RESULTS: We present the dynamic changes in the localisation of Xrn1 as a versatile tool for monitoring the growth of yeast populations at the single-cell level using fluorescence microscopy. CONCLUSIONS: The dynamic changes in the localisation of Xrn1 can be a versatile tool for monitoring the growth of yeast populations at the single-cell level. Simultaneously, Xrn1 localisation outside of P-bodies in post-diauxic cells supports its storage and cytoprotective function, yet the role of P-bodies in cell metabolism has still not yet been entirely elucidated.

Nonlinear life table response experiment analysis: Decomposing nonlinear and nonadditive population growth responses to changes in environmental drivers.

Life table response experiments (LTREs) decompose differences in population growth rate between environments into separate contributions from each underlying demographic rate. However, most LTRE analyses make the unrealistic assumption that the relationships between demographic rates and environmental drivers are linear and independent, which may result in diminished accuracy when these assumptions are violated. We extend regression LTREs to incorporate nonlinear (second-order) terms and compare the accuracy of both approaches for three previously published demographic datasets. We show that the second-order approach equals or outperforms the linear approach for all three case studies, even when all of the underlying vital rate functions are linear. Nonlinear vital rate responses to driver changes contributed most to population growth rate responses, but life history changes also made substantial contributions. Our results suggest that moving from linear to second-order LTRE analyses could improve our understanding of population responses to changing environments.

Chronic Effects of an Insect Growth Regulator (teflubenzuron) on the Life Cycle and Population Growth Rate of Folsomia candida.

Current standard toxicity tests on nontarget soil invertebrates mainly focus on the endpoints survival and reproduction. Such results are likely insufficient to predict effects at higher organizational levels, for example, the population level. We assessed the effects of exposure to the pesticide teflubenzuron on the collembolan Folsomia candida, by performing a full life-cycle experiment exposing single individuals via contaminated food (uncontaminated control and 0.2, 0.32, 0.48, 0.72, 1.08, and 1.6 mg/kg dry yeast). Several life-history traits were considered by following the growth and development of newly hatched individuals over a period of 65 days. We assessed survival, body length, time to first oviposition, cumulative egg production, and hatchability of eggs. A two-stage model was applied to calculate the population growth rate (λ) combined with elasticity analysis to reveal the relative sensitivity of λ to the effects of teflubenzuron on each life-history parameter. Body length was the least sensitive life-history parameter (median effective concentration = 1.10 mg teflubenzuron/kg dry yeast) followed by time to first oviposition (0.96 mg/kg), survival (median lethal concentration = 0.87 mg/kg), cumulative egg production (0.32 mg/kg), and egg hatchability (0.27 mg/kg). Population growth decreased with increasing concentrations of teflubenzuron (λ = 1.162/day in control to 1.005/day in 0.72 mg/kg dry yeast, with populations going extinct at 1.08 and 1.6 mg/kg dry yeast). Elasticity analysis showed that changes in juvenile survival had a greater impact on the population growth rate compared with the other life-history traits. Our study provides a comprehensive overview of individual-level effects of long-term exposure to teflubenzuron and integrates these effects to assess the potential risk to collembolan populations. Environ Toxicol Chem 2024;43:1173-1183. © 2024 The Authors. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of SETAC.

The long-term expansion and recession of human populations.

Over the last 12,000 y, human populations have expanded and transformed critical earth systems. Yet, a key unresolved question in the environmental and social sciences remains: Why did human populations grow and, sometimes, decline in the first place? Our research builds on 20 y of archaeological research studying the deep time dynamics of human populations to propose an explanation for the long-term growth and stability of human populations. Innovations in the productive capacity of populations fuels exponential-like growth over thousands of years; however, innovations saturate over time and, often, may leave populations vulnerable to large recessions in their well-being and population density. Empirically, we find a trade-off between changes in land use that increase the production and consumption of carbohydrates, driving repeated waves of population growth over thousands of years, and the susceptibility of populations to large recessions due to a lag in the impact of humans on resources. These results shed light on the long-term drivers of human population growth and decline.

The Formal Demography of Peak Population.

When will the human population peak? In this article, we build on classical results by Ansley Coale, who showed that when fertility declines steadily, births reach their maximum before fertility reaches replacement level, and the decline in total population size does not occur until several decades after fertility has reached that level. We extend Coale's results by modeling longevity increases, net immigration, and a slowdown in fertility decline that resembles current projections. With these extensions, our models predict a typical lag between replacement-level fertility and population decline of about 35 to 40 years, consistent with projections by the United Nations and about 15 years longer than the lag predicted by Coale. Our analysis helps reveal underlying factors in the timing of peak population.

Succession and climatic stochasticity induce long-term decline of a forest browser.

Removal of predators and creation of early seral habitat have, in many systems, caused substantial population growth of herbivores. Hyperabundant herbivores, in turn, induce cascading ecosystem effects, but few studies have investigated long-term browser density trends in relation to succession and stochastic climate events. Here, we use annual, empirical population estimates of a forest browser to relate forest succession to long-term decline of an herbivore that prefers early seral habitat. From 2007-2021, concurrent with reduced timber harvest, we used line-transect distance sampling to document annual changes in Columbian black-tailed deer (Odocoileus hemionus columbianus) density on a mid-sized (17.3km2) predator-free island. We documented successional changes associated with forest aggradation and decreased forage quality for deer: early successional shrub/scrub habitat declined 3.8%/year; timber volume increased 4.5%/year; and canopy coverage increased 2.5%. In 2007-2008, deer densities were the greatest observed (~44/km2), but then an historic snowstorm reduced deer density by 39%. From 2010-2021, as forests continued to mature, deer density decreased 4.0%/year, declining to 20 deer/km2. Using a multivariate approach to combine habitat variables (i.e., early seral coverage, timber volume, and canopy closure) into a measure of forest maturation, we found a significant negative relationship between deer density and forest aggradation. Thus, consistent with predictions for bottom-up limited browsers, we observed significant annual declines in a deer population throughout an extended period of forest regrowth. Despite declines, deer density on the island exceeds mainland densities, and overbrowsing likely continues to disrupt ecosystem processes.

Factors influencing baby boomers' intention to choose a dish featuring plant-based meat alternatives (PBMA) at a restaurant: Findings from an online panel study.

The purpose of this study is to examine the psychosocial determinants of baby boomers'-born between 1946 and 1964- intention to choose a menu item featuring plant-based meat alternatives (PBMA) when dining out. The specific objectives are as follows: 1) to identify the baby boomer generation's health-related perceptions about PBMA, and 2) to examine the factors that influence baby boomers' intention to choose a dish featuring PBMA at a restaurant. A total of 174 responses obtained using the Qualtrics panel were analyzed with content analysis and partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM). The findings identified various underlying perceptions of baby boomers toward PBMA, such as perceived health outcomes, perceived availability, and willingness to purchase. Furthermore, subjective norm, cues to action, and self-identity were found to be significant predictors of the intention to choose a menu item featuring PBMA when dining out. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed.

Mapping of population growth influence on land use transformation from 1994 to 2015 in Madaba Governorate, Jordan.

The Madaba Governorate, as the second-largest wheat producer in Jordan, holds a crucial position in safeguarding regional food security. Its evolving landscape, marked by changes in land use, presents environmental and socio-economic challenges that necessitate sustainable urban planning and land management practices. This study delves into the intricate relationship between the conversion of agricultural lands into urban areas and the concurrent rise in population within the Madaba Governorate. Utilizing a Markov model, this research employs land use and land cover (LULC) data from 1994, 2004, and 2015 to project future changes in 2025 and 2035 with an impressive 80% accuracy (kappa coefficient). The findings reveal a projected 6% increase in urban areas over the next decade and a notable 11.81% decline in rural lands, signifying a substantial urbanization trend. In response to these population-driven LULC dynamics, there is an urgent need for the implementation of sustainable land use planning and management solutions. Given the constraints of limited water resources in the region, this study also places emphasis on water resource management. Recommendations include measures such as restricting urban sprawl, preserving agricultural lands, managing population growth, and implementing water conservation strategies. These insights provide invaluable information for stakeholders in the Madaba Governorate, including policymakers and land use planners, fostering a comprehensive understanding of the complex interplay between regional water resources, population expansion, and land use changes.

An integrated deep-learning model for smart waste classification.

Efficient waste management is essential for human well-being and environmental health, as neglecting proper disposal practices can lead to financial losses and the depletion of natural resources. Given the rapid urbanization and population growth, developing an automated, innovative waste classification model becomes imperative. To address this need, our paper introduces a novel and robust solution - a smart waste classification model that leverages a hybrid deep learning model (Optimized DenseNet-121 + SVM) to categorize waste items using the TrashNet datasets. Our proposed approach uses the advanced deep learning model DenseNet-121, optimized for superior performance, to extract meaningful features from an expanded TrashNet dataset. These features are subsequently fed into a support vector machine (SVM) for precise classification. Employing data augmentation techniques further enhances classification accuracy while mitigating the risk of overfitting, especially when working with limited TrashNet data. The results of our experimental evaluation of this hybrid deep learning model are highly promising, with an impressive accuracy rate of 99.84%. This accuracy surpasses similar existing models, affirming the efficacy and potential of our approach to revolutionizing waste classification for a sustainable and cleaner future.

Detrimental effects of hull cleaning wastewater on oxidative status, life cycle parameters, and population growth of the monogonont rotifer Brachionus manjavacas.

While wastewater discharged from in-water cleaning process of ship hulls on rotifer consistently released into aquatic ecosystem, its detrimental effects on non-target animals are largely unclear. In this study, we provide evidence on detrimental effects of hull cleaning wastewater in the monogonont rotifer Brachionus manjavacas by analyzing biochemical and physiological parameters in its oxidative status, survival, lifespan, growth, fecundity, and population. The wastewater contained high concentrations of metals (Zn and Cu) and metal-based antifoulants (CuPT and ZnPT). Significant oxidative stress was observed in response to two wastewater samples [1) raw wastewater (RW) and 2) mechanical filtrated in the cleaning system (MF)]. Higher detrimental effects in survival, lifespan, fecundity, and population growth for 10 days were measured in the RW-exposed rotifers than those results analyzed in the MF-exposed rotifers. Two growth parameters, lorica length and width were also significantly modulated by both wastewater samples. These results indicate that even filtered hull cleaning wastewater would have deleterious effects on the maintenance of the rotifer population when they exposed constantly.

Oystershell scale (Hemiptera: Diaspididae) population growth, spread, and phenology on aspen in Arizona, USA.

Oystershell scale (OSS; Lepidosaphes ulmi L.) is an invasive insect that threatens sustainability of aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.) in the southwestern United States. OSS invasions have created challenges for land managers tasked with maintaining healthy aspen ecosystems for the ecological, economic, and aesthetic benefits they provide. Active management is required to suppress OSS populations and mitigate damage to aspen ecosystems, but before management strategies can be implemented, critical knowledge gaps about OSS biology and ecology must be filled. This study sought to fill these gaps by addressing 3 questions: (i) What is the short-term rate of aspen mortality in OSS-infested stands in northern Arizona, USA? (ii) What are the short-term rates of OSS population growth on trees and OSS spread among trees in aspen stands? (iii) What is the phenology of OSS on aspen and does climate influence phenology? We observed high levels of aspen mortality (annual mortality rate = 10.4%) and found that OSS spread rapidly within stands (annual spread rate = 10-12.3%). We found first, second, and young third instars throughout the year and observed 2 waves of first instars (i.e., crawlers), one throughout the summer and a second in mid-winter. The first wave appeared to be driven by warming seasonal temperatures, but the cause of the second wave is unknown and might represent a second generation. We provide recommendations for future OSS research, including suggestions for more precise quantification of OSS phenology, and discuss how our results can inform management of OSS and invaded aspen ecosystems.

Colony level fitness analysis identifies a trade-off between population growth rate and dauer yield in Caenorhabditis elegans.

BACKGROUND: In the evolution from unicellular to multicellular life forms, natural selection favored reduced cell proliferation and even programmed cell death if this increased organismal fitness. Could reduced individual fertility or even programmed organismal death similarly increase the fitness of colonies of closely-related metazoan organisms? This possibility is at least consistent with evolutionary theory, and has been supported by computer modelling. Caenorhabditis elegans has a boom and bust life history, where populations of nematodes that are sometimes near clonal subsist on and consume food patches, and then generate dauer larva dispersal propagules. A recent study of an in silico model of C. elegans predicted that one determinant of colony fitness (measured as dauer yield) is minimization of futile food consumption (i.e. that which does not contribute to dauer yield). One way to achieve this is to optimize colony population structure by adjustment of individual fertility. RESULTS: Here we describe development of a C. elegans colony fitness assay, and its use to investigate the effect of altering population structure on colony fitness after population bust. Fitness metrics measured were speed of dauer production, and dauer yield, an indirect measure of efficiency of resource utilization (i.e. conversion of food into dauers). We find that with increasing founder number, speed of dauer production increases (due to earlier bust) but dauer yield rises and falls. In addition, some dauer recovery was detected soon after the post-colony bust peak of dauer yield, suggesting possible bet hedging among dauers. CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest the presence of a fitness trade-off at colony level between speed and efficiency of resource utilization in C. elegans. They also provide indirect evidence that population structure is a determinant of colony level fitness, potentially by affecting level of futile food consumption.

In quest of China sports lottery development path to common prosperity in 2035.

OBJECTIVES: The China sports lottery contributes to sports and welfare causes. This study aims to construct a macro forecasting model supporting its sustained growth aligned with Vision 2035. METHODS: The modeling employed a distributional regression. Sales data of the China sports lottery from 2011 to 2022 were chosen as the response variable, alongside various macro- and event-level explanatory factors. RESULTS: A gamma distribution best fit the data. In the stable model spanning 2011-2019, urbanization, population dynamics, and FIFA emerged as significant contributors (Chi-square p < 0.05) to the location shift parameter. These three factors retained their significance in the 2011-2022 shock model, where shock itself notably impacted sales (p < 0.001). Utilizing the shock model, we simulated the trajectory of the China sports lottery up to 2035. China's demographics changes are poised to create structural headwinds starting in 2026, leading to an anticipated decline in sales driven by population shifts from 2032 onward. However, the FIFA effect is projected to continue fortifying this sector. CONCLUSIONS: Beyond offering original insights into the sales trajectory until 2035, specifically concerning new urbanization, negative population growth, and the FIFA effect, this macro forecasting framework can assist in addressing the policy priority of balancing growth with risk mitigation. We recommend policymakers connect market development with mass sports, potentially garnering a dual boost from the growing population of older consumers and the inherent benefits of a "FIFA (mass sports)" effect. A people-centered approach to the China sports lottery could significantly contribute to the long-range objectives of achieving common prosperity outlined in Vision 2035.

Fingering Instability Accelerates Population Growth of a Proliferating Cell Collective.

During the growth of a cell collective, such as proliferating microbial colonies and epithelial tissues, the local cell growth increases the local pressure, which in turn suppresses cell growth. How this pressure-growth coupling affects the growth of a cell collective remains unclear. Here, we answer this question using a continuum model of a cell collective. We find that a fast-growing leading front and a slow-growing interior of the cell collective emerge due to the pressure-dependent growth rate. The leading front can exhibit fingering instability, and we confirm the predicted instability criteria numerically with the leading front explicitly simulated. Intriguingly, we find that fingering instability is not only a consequence of local cell growth but also enhances the entire population's growth rate as positive feedback. Our work unveils the fitness advantage of fingering formation and suggests that the ability to form protrusions can be evolutionarily selected.