Using decision tree models and comprehensive statewide data to predict opioid overdoses following prison release.

PURPOSE: Identifying predictors of opioid overdose following release from prison is critical for opioid overdose prevention. METHODS: We leveraged an individually linked, state-wide database from 2015-2020 to predict the risk of opioid overdose within 90 days of release from Massachusetts state prisons. We developed two decision tree modeling schemes: a model fit on all individuals with a single weight for those that experienced an opioid overdose and models stratified by race/ethnicity. We compared the performance of each model using several performance measures and identified factors that were most predictive of opioid overdose within racial/ethnic groups and across models. RESULTS: We found that out of 44,246 prison releases in Massachusetts between 2015-2020, 2237 (5.1%) resulted in opioid overdose in the 90 days following release. The performance of the two predictive models varied. The single weight model had high sensitivity (79%) and low specificity (56%) for predicting opioid overdose and was more sensitive for White non-Hispanic individuals (sensitivity = 84%) than for racial/ethnic minority individuals. CONCLUSIONS: Stratified models had better balanced performance metrics for both White non-Hispanic and racial/ethnic minority groups and identified different predictors of overdose between racial/ethnic groups. Across racial/ethnic groups and models, involuntary commitment (involuntary treatment for alcohol/substance use disorder) was an important predictor of opioid overdose.

Cancer incidence, treatment, and survival in the prison population compared with the general population in England: a population-based, matched cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The growing and ageing prison population in England makes accurate cancer data of increasing importance for prison health policies. This study aimed to compare cancer incidence, treatment, and survival between patients diagnosed in prison and the general population. METHODS: In this population-based, matched cohort study, we used cancer registration data from the National Cancer Registration and Analysis Service in England to identify primary invasive cancers and cervical cancers in situ diagnosed in adults (aged ≥18 years) in the prison and general populations between Jan 1, 1998, and Dec 31, 2017. Ministry of Justice and Office for National Statistics population data for England were used to calculate age-standardised incidence rates (ASIR) per year and age-standardised incidence rate ratios (ASIRR) for the 20-year period. Patients diagnosed with primary invasive cancers (ie, excluding cervical cancers in situ) in prison between Jan 1, 2012, and Dec 31, 2017 were matched to individuals from the general population and linked to hospital and treatment datasets. Matching was done in a 1:5 ratio according to 5-year age group, gender, diagnosis year, cancer site, and disease stage. Our primary objectives were to compare the incidence of cancer (1998-2017); the receipt of treatment with curative intent (2012-17 matched cohort), using logistic regression adjusted for matching variables (excluding cancer site) and route to diagnosis; and overall survival following cancer diagnosis (2012-17 matched cohort), using a Cox proportional hazards model adjusted for matching variables (excluding cancer site) and route to diagnosis, with stratification for the receipt of any treatment with curative intent. FINDINGS: We identified 2015 incident cancers among 1964 adults (1556 [77·2%] men and 459 [22·8%] women) in English prisons in the 20-year period up to Dec 31, 2017. The ASIR for cancer for men in prison was initially lower than for men in the general population (in 1998, ASIR 119·33 per 100 000 person-years [95% CI 48·59-219·16] vs 746·97 per 100 000 person-years [742·31-751·66]), but increased to a similar level towards the end of the study period (in 2017, 856·85 per 100 000 person-years [675·12-1060·44] vs 788·59 per 100 000 person-years [784·62-792·57]). For women, the invasive cancer incidence rate was low and so ASIR was not reported for this group. Over the 20-year period, the incidence of invasive cancer for men in prison increased (incidence rate ratio per year, 1·05 [95% CI 1·04-1·06], during 1999-2017 compared with 1998). ASIRRs showed that over the 20-year period, overall cancer incidence was lower in men in prison than in men in the general population (ASIRR 0·76 [95% CI 0·73-0·80]). The difference was not statistically significant for women (ASIRR 0·83 [0·68-1·00]). Between Jan 1, 2012, and Dec 31, 2017, patients diagnosed in prison were less likely to undergo curative treatment than matched patients in the general population (274 [32·3%] of 847 patients vs 1728 [41·5%] of 4165; adjusted odds ratio (OR) 0·72 [95% CI 0·60-0·85]). Being diagnosed in prison was associated with a significantly increased risk of death on adjustment for matching variables (347 deaths during 2021·9 person-years in the prison cohort vs 1626 deaths during 10 944·2 person-years in the general population; adjusted HR 1·16 [95% CI 1·03-1·30]); this association was partly explained by stratification by curative treatment and further adjustment for diagnosis route (adjusted HR 1·05 [0·93-1·18]). INTERPRETATION: Cancer incidence increased in people in prisons in England between 1998 and 2017, with patients in prison less likely to receive curative treatments and having lower overall survival than the general population. The association with survival was partly explained by accounting for differences in receipt of curative treatment and adjustment for diagnosis route. Improved routine cancer surveillance is needed to inform prison cancer policies and decrease inequalities for this under-researched population. FUNDING: UK National Institute for Health and Care Research, King's College London, and Strategic Priorities Fund 2019/20 of Research England via the University of Surrey.

Generalized Resistance Deficits in inmates with hypertension: missing resources that limit health.

OBJECTIVE: to understand the Generalized Resistance Deficits of people deprived of liberty with hypertension in a Brazilian prison unit. METHOD: qualitative research, anchored in Salutogenesis, carried out with 38 people with hypertension from a Brazilian prison unit, from February to July 2022, with a semi-structured interview with open-ended questions, whose analysis was thematic, explaining the limitations to health in prison. RESULTS: 13 Generalized Resistance Deficits were reported, mostly related to the prison environment and, to a lesser extent, to the social group and the individual, respectively. Living in prison for people with hypertension implies living with a high number of Generalized Resistance Deficits, accentuating the movement towards the disease pole. FINAL CONSIDERATIONS: knowing Generalized Resistance Deficits allows directing health promotion to support the use of available Generalized Resistance Resources and contributes to the expansion of intersectoral policies.

Controlling COVID-19 outbreaks in the correctional setting: A mathematical modelling study.

Correctional centres (termed here 'prisons') are at high risk of COVID-19 and have featured major outbreaks worldwide. Inevitable close contacts, frequent inmate movements, and a disproportionate burden of co-morbidities mean these environments need to be prioritised in any public health response to respiratory pathogens such as COVID-19. We developed an individual-based SARS-CoV-2 transmission model for the prison system in New South Wales, Australia - incorporating all 33 correctional centres, 13,458 inmates, 578 healthcare and 6,909 custodial staff. Potential COVID-19 disease outbreaks were assessed under various mitigation strategies, including quarantine on entry, isolation of cases, rapid antigen testing of staff, as well as immunisation.Without control measures, the model projected a peak of 472 new infections daily by day 35 across the prison system, with all inmates infected by day 120. The most effective individual mitigation strategies were high immunisation coverage and prompt lockdown of centres with infected inmates which reduced outbreak size by 62-73%. Other than immunisation, the combination of quarantine of inmates at entry, isolation of proven or suspected cases, and widespread use of personal protective equipment by staff and inmates was the most effective strategy. High immunisation coverage mitigates the spread of COVID-19 within and between correctional settings but is insufficient alone. Maintaining quarantine and isolation, along with high immunisation levels, will allow correctional systems to function with a low risk of outbreaks. These results have informed public health policy for respiratory pathogens in Australian correctional systems.

Adult Children of the Prison Boom: Family Troubles and the Intergenerational Transmission of Criminal Justice Contact.

Intergenerational transmission processes have long been of interest to demographers, but prior research on the intergenerational transmission of criminal justice contact is relatively sparse and limited by its lack of attention to the correlated "family troubles" and familial incarceration that predate criminal justice contact. In this article, we provide a test of the intergenerational transmission of criminal justice contact after adjusting extensively for these factors that predate such contact by linking longitudinal data from the Project on Human Development in Chicago Neighborhoods with official arrest histories from 1995 to 2020. The results provide support for three conclusions. First, parental criminal justice contact is associated with a shorter time to first arrest and a larger number of arrests even after rigorously accounting for selection. Second, robustness checks demonstrate that neither the magnitude nor the significance of the findings is sensitive to model choices. Third, associations are strongest among White individuals and inconsistently significant for African American and Hispanic individuals. Despite large recent crime declines, the results indicate that parental criminal justice contact elevates the criminal justice contact of the adult children of the prison boom, independent of the often-overlooked troubles that predate criminal justice contact, and that these associations are strongest among the White population.

Prevalence and factors associated with anxiety and depression among Chinese prison officers during the prolonged COVID-19 pandemic.

Objective: This study examined the prevalence of anxiety and depression-along with the potential risk and protective factors-among Chinese prison officers during the prolonged COVID-19 pandemic. Method: A cross-sectional survey of 1,268 officers from five prisons in western and southern China was administered between June and July 2022. The questionnaires comprised two sections. In the first section, the Generalized Anxiety Disorder-7 (GAD-7) and Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9) were used to evaluate the prevalence of anxiety and depression, respectively, among prison officers. In the second section, the potential influencing factors were examined. Categorical data were compared using χ2 tests and t-tests; binary logistic regression analysis was performed to identify factors associated with anxiety and depression. Results: The prevalence rates of anxiety and depression among the prison officers were 72.6% and 69.8%, respectively. Risk factors for anxiety were older age, being unmarried, work-family conflicts, job demands, and COVID-19 burnout; protective factors were exercise, positive family relationships, and group cohesion. Work-family conflicts, job demands, intolerance of uncertainty regarding COVID-19, and COVID-19 burnout were risk factors for depression, whereas annual income >150,000 RMB, exercise, positive family relationships, group cohesion, and job autonomy were protective factors against depression. Conclusion: The prevalence of anxiety and depression among Chinese prison officers was relatively high during the prolonged COVID-19 pandemic, and more targeted measures should be implemented to improve their mental health. This study offers a reference for improving prison officers' mental health in response to similar public health emergencies in the future.

A Generational Shift: Race and the Declining Lifetime Risk of Imprisonment.

Mass incarceration fundamentally altered the life course for a generation of American men, but sustained declines in imprisonment in recent years raise questions about how incarceration is shaping current generations. This study makes three primary contributions to a fuller understanding of the contemporary landscape of incarceration in the United States. First, we assess the scope of decarceration. Between 1999 and 2019, the Black male incarceration rate dropped by 44%, and notable declines in Black male imprisonment were evident in all 50 states. Second, our life table analysis demonstrates marked declines in the lifetime risks of incarceration. For Black men, the lifetime risk of incarceration declined by nearly half from 1999 to 2019. We estimate that less than 1 in 5 Black men born in 2001 will be imprisoned, compared with 1 in 3 for the 1981 birth cohort. Third, decarceration has shifted the institutional experiences of young adulthood. In 2009, young Black men were much more likely to experience imprisonment than college graduation. Ten years later, this trend had reversed, with Black men more likely to graduate college than go to prison. Our results suggest that prison has played a smaller role in the institutional landscape for the most recent generation compared with the generation exposed to the peak of mass incarceration.

Assaults by Scalding in British Prisons.

We describe the trends and severity of deliberate scald injuries from assaults within prisons presenting to Pinderfields Hospital in the United Kingdom. Data were obtained using local records of the International Burn Injury Database. Between 2003 and 2019, the hospital's Department of Plastic Surgery and Burns treated 22 cases from at least seven prisons, with 20 cases occurring in the last 4 years. Boiling water was used in most cases. Other substances included syrups of boiling water and sugar, and hot fat. Mean total body surface area was 2.8%, most commonly the face, neck, shoulders, and anterior chest. National data identified 267 cases with a similar rising trend. These injuries increase logistical and financial burdens on our burns service due to the need for added security and police escorts during treatment. "Copycat attacks" within same prisons, sometime on the same day, raise concerns that incidence of these injuries is likely to increase. Outreach nursing and telemedicine facilities may minimize the challenges during the management period.

Sex Differences in Violent Death During Incarceration and Legal Intervention.

INTRODUCTION: This study clarifies the differences in death during incarceration and legal intervention between males and females, delineating the differences in demographic features and the circumstances of the violent death including location, injury pattern, and perpetrator. METHODS: The data used are from the National Violent Death Reporting System database from 2003 to 2019. All victims were either in custody, in the process of custody, or in prison. Sex was coded as female or male and as assigned at birth. All analyses were conducted using SAS 9.4 software using chi-square tests, with an alpha of 0.05 to test significant differences in the circumstances of mortality and demographic characteristics for each group. RESULTS: Our findings show that suicide was the most common cause of death during incarceration for both females and males (89.8% versus 77.4%; P < 0.001). Homicide was less common in females (1.6% versus 14.8%; P < 0.001) and legal intervention only occurred in males (2.2%; P < 0.001). Male victims were more likely to be of non-White race/ethnicity compared to females, while females were more likely to be experiencing homelessness, have documented mental illness, and comorbid substance abuse. CONCLUSIONS: Victim sex is significantly associated with circumstances of violent death among the incarcerated and highlights the need for appropriate mental health and substance abuse treatment.

Intensified pulmonary tuberculosis case finding among HIV-infected new entrants of a prison in Malaysia: implications for a holistic approach to control tuberculosis in prisons.

PURPOSE: This intensified case finding study aimed to evaluate the prevalence of tuberculosis (TB) disease among people with HIV entering the largest prison in Malaysia. DESIGN/METHODOLOGY/APPROACH: The study was conducted in Kajang prison, starting in July 2013 in the men's prison and June 2015 in the women's prison. Individuals tested positive for HIV infection, during the mandatory HIV testing at the prison entry, were consecutively recruited over five months at each prison. Consented participants were interviewed using a structured questionnaire and asked to submit two sputum samples that were assessed using GeneXpert MTB/RIF (Xpert) and culture, irrespective of clinical presentation. Factors associated with active TB (defined as a positive result on either Xpert or culture) were assessed using regression analyses. FINDINGS: Overall, 214 incarcerated people with HIV were recruited. Most were men (84.6%), Malaysians (84.1%) and people who inject drugs (67.8%). The mean age was 37.5 (SD 8.2) years, and median CD4 lymphocyte count was 376 cells/mL (IQR 232-526). Overall, 27 (12.6%) TB cases were identified, which was independently associated with scores of five or more on the World Health Organization clinical scoring system for prisons (ARR 2.90 [95% CI 1.48-5.68]). ORIGINALITY/VALUE: Limited data exists about the prevalence of TB disease at prison entry, globally and none from Malaysia. The reported high prevalence of TB disease in the study adds an important and highly needed information to design comprehensive TB control programmes in prisons.

Protection against Omicron from Vaccination and Previous Infection in a Prison System.

BACKGROUND: Information regarding the protection conferred by vaccination and previous infection against infection with the B.1.1.529 (omicron) variant of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is limited. METHODS: We evaluated the protection conferred by mRNA vaccines and previous infection against infection with the omicron variant in two high-risk populations: residents and staff in the California state prison system. We used a retrospective cohort design to analyze the risk of infection during the omicron wave using data collected from December 24, 2021, through April 14, 2022. Weighted Cox models were used to compare the effectiveness (measured as 1 minus the hazard ratio) of vaccination and previous infection across combinations of vaccination history (stratified according to the number of mRNA doses received) and infection history (none or infection before or during the period of B.1.617.2 [delta]-variant predominance). A secondary analysis used a rolling matched-cohort design to evaluate the effectiveness of three vaccine doses as compared with two doses. RESULTS: Among 59,794 residents and 16,572 staff, the estimated effectiveness of previous infection against omicron infection among unvaccinated persons who had been infected before or during the period of delta predominance ranged from 16.3% (95% confidence interval [CI], 8.1 to 23.7) to 48.9% (95% CI, 41.6 to 55.3). Depending on previous infection status, the estimated effectiveness of vaccination (relative to being unvaccinated and without previous documented infection) ranged from 18.6% (95% CI, 7.7 to 28.1) to 83.2% (95% CI, 77.7 to 87.4) with two vaccine doses and from 40.9% (95% CI, 31.9 to 48.7) to 87.9% (95% CI, 76.0 to 93.9) with three vaccine doses. Incremental effectiveness estimates of a third (booster) dose (relative to two doses) ranged from 25.0% (95% CI, 16.6 to 32.5) to 57.9% (95% CI, 48.4 to 65.7) among persons who either had not had previous documented infection or had been infected before the period of delta predominance. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings in two high-risk populations suggest that mRNA vaccination and previous infection were effective against omicron infection, with lower estimates among those infected before the period of delta predominance. Three vaccine doses offered significantly more protection than two doses, including among previously infected persons.

Hepatitis C Screening and Treatment Program in Hungarian Prisons in the Era of Direct Acting Antiviral Agents.

A hepatitis C virus (HCV) screening and treatment program was conducted in Hungarian prisons on a voluntary basis. After HCV-RNA testing and genotyping for anti-HCV positives, treatments with direct-acting antiviral agents were commenced by hepatologists who visited the institutions monthly. Patients were supervised by the prisons' medical staff. Data were retrospectively collected from the Hungarian Hepatitis Treatment Registry, from the Health Registry of Prisons, and from participating hepatologists. Eighty-four percent of Hungarian prisons participated, meaning a total of 5779 individuals (28% of the inmate population) underwent screening. HCV-RNA positivity was confirmed in 317/5779 cases (5.49%); 261/317 (82.3%) started treatment. Ninety-nine percent of them admitted previous intravenous drug use. So far, 220 patients received full treatment and 41 patients are still on treatment. Based on the available end of treatment (EOT) + 24 weeks timepoint data, per protocol sustained virologic response rate was 96.8%. In conclusion, the Hungarian prison screening and treatment program, with the active participation of hepatologists and the prisons' medical staff, is a well-functioning model. Through the Hungarian experience, we emphasize that the "test-and-treat" principle is feasible and effective at micro-eliminating HCV in prisons, where infection rate, as well as history of intravenous drug usage, are high.

Prevalence and Appropriateness of Antipsychotic Prescribing in an Italian Prison: Is Everything Always Really Overprescribed?

PURPOSE/BACKGROUND: Although the prevalence of mental disorders in prisoners is known to be higher than in the general population, less is known about the antipsychotic (AP) prescribing rate in jail. The aim of this research was to investigate prevalence and appropriateness of AP prescription in an Italian prison to expand our understanding on this crucial area of clinical-forensic practice. METHODS/PROCEDURES: A cross-sectional (census day) design was used among male adults in the Parma Penitentiary Institutes (PPI). Sociodemographic, clinical and prescription data were collected from the PPI electronic clinical database management system. The AP prescribing appropriateness was examined in accordance with the therapeutic indications included in the Italian National Formulary. A descriptive statistical analysis was performed. FINDINGS/RESULTS: A total of 98 (14.1%) of 696 PPI prisoners were taking AP medications. Moreover, 90 (91.8%) of the 98 PPI participants were also taking other psychotropic medications concurrently. Quetiapine and olanzapine were the most common prescribed APs. Antipsychotic medications were most likely to be prescribed for off-label indications (74.4%). Less than one fifth of all AP prescriptions were for psychotic disorders. IMPLICATIONS/CONCLUSIONS: Antipsychotic medications are widely used in prison, often together with other psychotropic drugs. Considering their common adverse effects, it is crucial to longitudinally monitor their potential risk of metabolic, cardiovascular, and extrapyramidal symptoms and signs, as well as their early risk of mortality. Given the high prevalence of AP off-label prescription, the rationale for AP prescribing should be clearly documented and regularly reviewed within the prison by mental health professionals.

Association Between Prison Crowding and COVID-19 Incidence Rates in Massachusetts Prisons, April 2020-January 2021.

Importance: COVID-19 incidence and mortality are higher among incarcerated persons than in the general US population, but the extent to which prison crowding contributes to their COVID-19 risk is unknown. Objective: To estimate the associations between prison crowding, community COVID-19 transmission, and prison incidence rates of COVID-19. Design, Setting, and Participants: This was a longitudinal ecological study among all incarcerated persons in 14 Massachusetts state prisons between April 21, 2020, and January 11, 2021. Exposures: The primary exposure of interest was prison crowding, measured by (1) the size of the incarcerated population as a percentage of the prison's design capacity and (2) the percentage of incarcerated persons housed in single-cell units. The analysis included the weekly COVID-19 incidence in the county where each prison is located as a covariate. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was the weekly COVID-19 incidence rate as determined by positive SARS-CoV-2 tests among incarcerated persons at each prison over discrete 1-week increments. Results: There was on average 6876 people incarcerated in 14 prisons during the study period. The median level of crowding during the observation period ranged from 25% to 155% of design capacity. COVID-19 incidence was significantly higher in prisons where the incarcerated population was a larger percentage of the prison's design capacity (incidence rate ratio [IRR] per 10-percentage-point difference, 1.14; 95% CI, 1.03-1.27). COVID-19 incidence was lower in prisons where a higher proportion of incarcerated people were housed in single-cell units (IRR for each 10-percentage-point increase in single-cell units, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.73-0.93). COVID-19 transmission in the surrounding county was consistently associated with COVID-19 incidence in prisons (IRR [for each increase of 10 cases per 100 000 person-weeks in the community], 1.06; 95% CI, 1.05-1.08). Conclusions and Relevance: This longitudinal ecological study found that within 14 Massachusetts state prisons, increased crowding was associated with increased incidence rates of COVID-19. Researchers and policy makers should explore strategies that reduce prison crowding, such as decarceration, as potential ways to mitigate COVID-19 morbidity and mortality among incarcerated persons.

Innovative tracking, active search and follow-up strategies for new leprosy cases in the female prison population.

BACKGROUND: Regarding the leprosy transmission through the upper airways, overcrowded locations such as prisons can become a risk to get sick. Like the leprosy hidden endemic demonstrated in male prison population, being interesting to assess the leprosy scene also among confined women. METHODS: A prospective descriptive study conducted at Female Penitentiary, Brazil. Leprosy Suspicion Questionnaire (LSQ) were applied to the participants, and submitted to specialized dermatoneurological exam, peripheral nerve ultrasonography, and anti-PGL-I serology. FINDINGS: 404 female inmates were evaluated, 14 new cases were diagnosed (LG-leprosy group), a new case detection rate (NCDR) of 3.4%, 13 multibacillary, while another 390 constituted the Non-Leprosy group (NLG). Leprosy cases were followed up during multidrug therapy with clinical improvement. The confinement time median was 31 months in LG, similar to NLG, less than the time of leprosy incubation. Regarding LSQ, the neurological symptoms reached the highest x2 values as Q1-numbness (5.6), Q3-anesthetizes areas in the skin (7.5), Q5-Stinging sensation (5.8), and Q7-pain in the nerves (34.7), while Q4-spots on the skin was 4.94. When more than one question were marked in the LSQ means a 12.8-fold higher to have the disease than a subject who marked only one or none. The high 34% rate of anti-PGL-I seropositivity in the penitentiary, higher levels in LG than NLG. Three additional leprosy cases each were diagnosed on the second (n = 66) and third (n = 14) reevaluations 18 and 36 months after the initial one. Semmes-Weinstein monofilaments demonstrated lower limbs (32.2%) more affected than the upper limbs (25%) with improvement during the follow-up. INTERPRETATION: The NCDR in this population showed an hidden endemic of leprosy as well as the efficacy of a search action on the part of a specialized team with the aid of the LSQ and anti-PGL-I serology as an auxiliary tracking tools.

Birds of a feather flock together: Comparing controlled pre-post designs.

OBJECTIVE: To formalize comparative interrupted time series (CITS) using the potential outcomes framework; compare two version of CITS-a standard linear version and one that adds postperiod group-by-time parameters-to two versions of difference-in-differences (DID)-a standard version with time fixed effects and one that adds group-specific pretrends; and reanalyze three previously published papers using these models. DATA SOURCES: Outcome data for reanalyses come from two counties' jail booking and release data, Medicaid prescription drug rebate data from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS), and acute hepatitis C incidence from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. STUDY DESIGN: DID and CITS were compared using potential outcomes, and reanalyses were conducted using the four described pre-post study designs. DATA COLLECTION/EXTRACTION METHODS: Data from county jails were provided by sheriffs. Data from CMS are publicly available. Data for the third reanalysis were provided by the authors of the original study. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Though written differently and preferred by different research communities, the general version of CITS and DID with group-specific pretrends are the same: they yield the same counterfactuals and identify the same treatment effects. In a reanalysis with evidence of divergent preperiod trends, failing to account for this in standard DID led to an 84% smaller effect estimate than the more flexible models. In a second reanalysis with evidence of nonlinear outcome trends, failing to account for this in linear CITS led to a 28% smaller effect estimate than the more flexible models. CONCLUSION: We recommend detailing a causal model for treatment selection and outcome generation and the required counterfactuals before choosing an analytical approach. The more flexible versions of DID and CITS can accommodate features often found in real data, namely, nonlinearities and divergent preperiod outcome trends.

Prisons and COVID-19 Spread in the United States.

Objectives. To empirically evaluate the relationship between presence of a state or federal prison and COVID-19 case and death counts. Methods. We merged data on locations of federal and state prisons and of local and county jails with daily case and death counts in the United States. We used a selection-on-observables design to estimate the correlation between prisons and COVID-19 spread, controlling for known correlates of COVID-19. Results. We found empirical evidence that the presence and capacities of prisons are strong correlates of county-level COVID-19 case counts. The presence of a state or federal prison in a county corresponded with a 9% increase in the COVID-19 case count during the first wave of the pandemic, ending July 1, 2020. Conclusions. Our results suggest that the public health implications of these facilities extend beyond the health of employees and incarcerated individuals, and policymakers should explicitly consider the public health concerns posed by these facilities when developing pandemic-response policy.