Cost-effectiveness analysis of health tapestry, a complex primary care program for older adults: a post-hoc analysis.

BACKGROUND: We initially reported on the cost-effectiveness of a 6-month randomized controlled implementation trial which evaluated Health TAPESTRY, a primary care program for older adults, at the McMaster Family Health Team (FHT) site and 5 other FHT sites in Ontario, Canada. While there were no statistically significant between-group differences in outcomes at month 6 post randomization, positive outcomes were observed at the McMaster FHT site, which recruited 40% (204/512) of the participants. The objective of this post-hoc study was to determine the cost-effectiveness of Health TAPESTRY based on data from the McMaster FHT site. METHODS: Costs included the cost to implement Health TAPESTRY at McMaster as well as healthcare resource consumed, which were costed using publicly available sources. Health-related-quality-of-life was evaluated with the EQ-5L-5L at baseline and at month 6 post randomization. Quality-adjusted-life-years (QALYs) were calculated under an-area-under the curve approach. Unadjusted and adjusted regression analyses (two independent regression analyses on costs and QALYs, seemingly unrelated regression [SUR], net benefit regression) as well as difference-in-difference and propensity score matching (PSM) methods, were used to deal with the non-randomized nature of the trial. Sampling uncertainty inherent to the trial data was estimated using non-parametric bootstrapping. The return on investment (ROI) associated with Health TAPESTRY was calculated. All costs were reported in 2021 Canadian dollars. RESULTS: With an intervention cost of $293/patient, Health TAPESTRY was the preferred strategy in the unadjusted and adjusted analyses. The results of our bootstrap analyses indicated that Health TAPESTRY was cost-effective compared to usual care at commonly accepted WTP thresholds. For example, if decision makers were willing to pay $50,000 per QALY gained, the probability of Health TAPESTRY to be cost effective compared to usual care varied from 0.72 (unadjusted analysis) to 0.96 (SUR) when using a WTP of $50,000/QALY gained. The DID and ROI analyses indicated that Health Tapestry generated a positive ROI. CONCLUSION: Health TAPESTRY was the preferred strategy when implemented at the McMaster FHT. We caution care in interpreting the results because of the post-hoc nature of the analyses and limited sample size based on one site.

Devices for remote continuous monitoring of people with Parkinson's disease: a systematic review and cost-effectiveness analysis.

Background: Parkinson's disease is a brain condition causing a progressive loss of co ordination and movement problems. Around 145,500 people have Parkinson's disease in the United Kingdom. Levodopa is the most prescribed treatment for managing motor symptoms in the early stages. Patients should be monitored by a specialist every 6-12 months for disease progression and treatment of adverse effects. Wearable devices may provide a novel approach to management by directly monitoring patients for bradykinesia, dyskinesia, tremor and other symptoms. They are intended to be used alongside clinical judgement. Objectives: To determine the clinical and cost-effectiveness of five devices for monitoring Parkinson's disease: Personal KinetiGraph, Kinesia 360, KinesiaU, PDMonitor and STAT-ON. Methods: We performed systematic reviews of all evidence on the five devices, outcomes included: diagnostic accuracy, impact on decision-making, clinical outcomes, patient and clinician opinions and economic outcomes. We searched MEDLINE and 12 other databases/trial registries to February 2022. Risk of bias was assessed. Narrative synthesis was used to summarise all identified evidence, as the evidence was insufficient for meta-analysis. One included trial provided individual-level data, which was re-analysed. A de novo decision-analytic model was developed to estimate the cost-effectiveness of Personal KinetiGraph and Kinesia 360 compared to standard of care in the UK NHS over a 5-year time horizon. The base-case analysis considered two alternative monitoring strategies: one-time use and routine use of the device. Results: Fifty-seven studies of Personal KinetiGraph, 15 of STAT-ON, 3 of Kinesia 360, 1 of KinesiaU and 1 of PDMonitor were included. There was some evidence to suggest that Personal KinetiGraph can accurately measure bradykinesia and dyskinesia, leading to treatment modification in some patients, and a possible improvement in clinical outcomes when measured using the Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale. The evidence for STAT-ON suggested it may be of value for diagnosing symptoms, but there is currently no evidence on its clinical impact. The evidence for Kinesia 360, KinesiaU and PDMonitor is insufficient to draw any conclusions on their value in clinical practice. The base-case results for Personal KinetiGraph compared to standard of care for one-time and routine use resulted in incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of £67,856 and £57,877 per quality-adjusted life-year gained, respectively, with a beneficial impact of the Personal KinetiGraph on Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale domains III and IV. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio results for Kinesia 360 compared to standard of care for one-time and routine use were £38,828 and £67,203 per quality-adjusted life-year gained, respectively. Limitations: The evidence was limited in extent and often low quality. For all devices, except Personal KinetiGraph, there was little to no evidence on the clinical impact of the technology. Conclusions: Personal KinetiGraph could reasonably be used in practice to monitor patient symptoms and modify treatment where required. There is too little evidence on STAT-ON, Kinesia 360, KinesiaU or PDMonitor to be confident that they are clinically useful. The cost-effectiveness of remote monitoring appears to be largely unfavourable with incremental cost-effectiveness ratios in excess of £30,000 per quality-adjusted life-year across a range of alternative assumptions. The main driver of cost-effectiveness was the durability of improvements in patient symptoms. Study registration: This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42022308597. Funding: This award was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Evidence Synthesis programme (NIHR award ref: NIHR135437) and is published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 28, No. 30. See the NIHR Funding and Awards website for further award information.

Parkinson's disease is a brain condition causing loss of co-ordination and movement problems. Levodopa is the most prescribed treatment for early disease. Patients should be seen by a specialist every 6­12 months to assess their treatment needs. Wearable devices (like smart watches) may aid management by directly monitoring patients for disease symptoms including tremor and slowness of movement (bradykinesia), or side effects of treatment like involuntary movement (dyskinesia). This assessment considered the clinical and economic value of five wearable devices: Personal KinetiGraph, STAT-ON, Kinesia 360, KinesiaU and PDMonitor. We searched medical databases to find all studies of the five devices. We assessed the quality of these studies and reviewed their results. We found 77 studies of the devices. There was some evidence to suggest that Personal KinetiGraph can accurately measure bradykinesia and dyskinesia, leading to treatment modification in some patients, and a possible improvement in symptoms. The evidence for STAT-ON suggested it may be of value for diagnosing symptoms, but there is currently no evidence on its clinical value. There was insufficient evidence for Kinesia 360, KinesiaU and PDMonitor to draw any conclusions. An economic analysis was conducted to investigate whether using any of these technologies is economically viable. The economic analysis found that the quality-of-life benefits generated by remote monitoring devices were small relative to the additional costs of implementing them in the NHS. As such, none of the remote monitoring devices were good value for money when compared with the current standard of care.

Cost-effectiveness of approaches to cervical cancer screening in Malawi: comparison of frequencies, lesion treatment techniques, and risk-stratified approaches.

BACKGROUND: Recently-updated global guidelines for cervical cancer screening incorporated new technologies-most significantly, the inclusion of HPV DNA detection as a primary screening test-but leave many implementation decisions at countries' discretion. We sought to develop recommendations for Malawi as a test case since it has the second-highest cervical cancer burden globally and high HIV prevalence. We incorporated updated epidemiologic data, the full range of ablation methods recommended, and a more nuanced representation of how HIV status intersects with cervical cancer risk and exposure to screening to model outcomes of different approaches to screening. METHODS: Using a Markov model, we estimate the relative health outcomes and costs of different approaches to cervical cancer screening among Malawian women. The model was parameterized using published data, and focused on comparing "triage" approaches-i.e., lesion treatment (cryotherapy or thermocoagulation) at differing frequencies and varying by HIV status. Health outcomes were quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and deaths averted. The model was built using TreeAge Pro software. RESULTS: Thermocoagulation was more cost-effective than cryotherapy at all screening frequencies. Screening women once per decade would avert substantially more deaths than screening only once per lifetime, at relatively little additional cost. Moreover, at this frequency, it would be advisable to ensure that all women who screen positive receive treatment (rather than investing in further increases in screening frequency): for a similar gain in QALYs, it would cost more than four times as much to implement once-per-5 years screening with only 50% of women treated versus once-per-decade screening with 100% of women treated. Stratified screening schedules by HIV status was found to be an optimal approach. CONCLUSIONS: These results add new evidence about cost-effective approaches to cervical cancer screening in low-income countries. At relatively infrequent screening intervals, if resources are limited, it would be more cost-effective to invest in scaling up thermocoagulation for treatment before increasing the recommended screening frequency. In Malawi or countries in a similar stage of the HIV epidemic, a stratified approach that prioritizes more frequent screening for women living with HIV may be more cost-effective than population-wide recommendations that are HIV status neutral.

Cost-utility analysis of early reconstruction surgery versus conservative treatment for anterior cruciate ligament injury in a lower-middle income country.

BACKGROUND: The ideal approach for treating anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury is still disputed. This study aimed to determine the more cost-effective strategy by comparing early ACL reconstruction (ACLR) surgery to conservative treatment (rehabilitation with optional delayed reconstruction) for ACL injury in a lower/middle-income country (LMIC), Indonesia. METHODS: A decision tree model was constructed for cost-utility analysis of early ACLR versus conservative treatment. The transition probabilities between states were obtained from the literature review. Utilities were measured by the EQ-5D-3 L from a prospective cohort study in a local hospital. The costs were obtained from a previous study that elaborated on the burden and cost of ACLR in Indonesia. Effectiveness was expressed in quality-adjusted life years gained (QALYs). Principal outcome measure was the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER). Willingness-to-pay was set at US$12,876 - three times the Indonesian GDP per capita in 2021 - the currently accepted standard in Indonesia as suggested by the World Health Organization Choosing Interventions that are Cost-Effective criterion (WHO-CHOICE). RESULTS: The early ACLR group showed an incremental gain of 0.05 QALYs over the conservative treatment group, with a higher overall cost to society of US$976. The ICER of ACLR surgery was US$19,524 per QALY, above the WTP threshold of US$12,876. The ICER was sensitive to cost of conservative treatment, cost of ACLR, and rate of cross-over to delayed ACLR numbers in the conservative treatment group. Using the WTP threshold of US$12,876, the probability of conservative treatment being preferred over early ACLR was 64%. CONCLUSIONS: Based on the current model, early ACLR surgery does not seem more cost-effective compared to conservative treatment for ACL injury patients in Indonesia. Because the result was sensitive to the rate of cross-over probabilities from the conservative treatment alone to delayed ACLR, a future study with a long-term perspective is needed to further elucidate its impact.

Scale and rate heterogeneity in the EQ-5D-5L valuation.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate values on a quality-adjusted life year (QALY) scale using individual preference evidence, choice analyses typically include ancillary parameters, such as scale factors and discount rates. These parameters potentially differ among respondents. In this study, we investigated how allowing heterogeneity in scale and rate affects the estimation of EQ-5D-5L values. METHODS: Using the first wave of the 2016 EQ-5D-5L valuation study (N = 1017), we estimated a conditional logit (CL) model and three mixed logit models: random scale, random rate, and bivariate. Prior to the exploratory study, we hypothesized that scale and rate are correlated and that allowing heterogeneity in both parameters decreases the number of insignificant incremental effects. We confirmed the exploratory findings by re-estimating these models using paired comparison responses from a second wave (N = 1229). RESULTS: Scale and rate exhibited significant heterogeneity and were positively correlated. As hypothesized, allowing this heterogeneity improved the face validity of the EQ-5D-5L value set by reducing the number of insignificant incremental effects (from 6 to 2 p-values > 0.05; out of 20). Nevertheless, the CL and bivariate mixed logit estimates are highly correlated and concordant (Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.897, Spearman correlation coefficient of 0.888, Lin's concordance coefficient of 0.763). CONCLUSIONS: Allowing this heterogeneity adds three parameters to the estimation (two variances and a correlation) and improves the face validity of the EQ-5D-5L values. This finding may influence experimental design and choice analysis in health valuation more generally.

Affordable web-based foot-ankle exercise program proves effective for diabetic foot care in a randomized controlled trial with economic evaluation.

The aim of this study was to shed light on a crucial issue through a comprehensive evaluation of the cost-effectiveness and cost-utility of a cutting-edge web-based foot-ankle therapeutic exercise program (SOPeD) designed for treating modifiable risk factors for ulcer prevention in individuals with diabetes-related peripheral neuropathy (DPN). In this randomized controlled trial, 62 participants diagnosed with DPN were assigned to the SOPeD software or received usual care for diabetic foot. Primary outcomes were DPN symptoms and severity, foot pain and function, and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). Between-group comparisons provided 95% confidence intervals. The study also calculated incremental cost-effectiveness and cost-utility ratios (ICERs), analyzed direct costs from a healthcare perspective, and performed a sensitivity analysis to assess uncertainty. The web-based intervention effectively reduced foot pain, improved foot function and showed favorable cost-effectiveness, with ICERs ranging from (USD) $5.37-$148.71 per improvement in different outcomes. There is a high likelihood of cost-effectiveness for improving DPN symptoms and severity, foot pain, and function, even when the minimum willingness-to-pay threshold was set at $1000.00 USD. However, the intervention did not prove to be cost-effective in terms of QALYs. This study reveals SOPeD's effectiveness in reducing foot pain, improving foot function, and demonstrating cost-effectiveness in enhancing functional and clinical outcomes. SOPeD stands as a potential game-changer for modifiable risk factors for ulcers, with our findings indicating a feasible and balanced integration into public health systems. Further studies and considerations are vital for informed decisions to stakeholders and the successful implementation of this preventive program on a larger scale.Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04011267. Registered on 8 July 2019.

Behaviour change interventions to improve physical activity in adults: a systematic review of economic evaluations.

BACKGROUND: Behaviour change interventions can result in lasting improvements in physical activity (PA). A broad implementation of behaviour change interventions are likely to be associated with considerable additional costs, and the evidence is unclear whether they represent good value for money. The aim of this study was to investigate costs and cost-effectiveness of behaviour change interventions to increase PA in community-dwelling adults. METHODS: A search for trial-based economic evaluations investigating behaviour change interventions versus usual care or alternative intervention for adults living in the community was conducted (September 2023). Studies that reported intervention costs and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for PA or quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were included. Methodological quality was assessed using the Consensus Health Economic Criteria (CHEC-list). A Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation style approach was used to assess the certainty of evidence (low, moderate or high certainty). RESULTS: Sixteen studies were included using a variety of economic perspectives. The behaviour change interventions were heterogeneous with 62% of interventions being informed by a theoretical framework. The median CHEC-list score was 15 (range 11 to 19). Median intervention cost was US$313 per person (range US$83 to US$1,298). In 75% of studies the interventions were reported as cost-effective for changes in PA (moderate certainty of evidence). For cost per QALY/gained, 45% of the interventions were found to be cost-effective (moderate certainty of evidence). No specific type of behaviour change intervention was found to be more effective. CONCLUSIONS: There is moderate certainty that behaviour change interventions are cost-effective approaches for increasing PA. The heterogeneity in economic perspectives, intervention costs and measurement should be considered when interpreting results. There is a need for increased clarity when reporting the functional components of behaviour change interventions, as well as the costs to implement them.

Quantifying the insurance value for rare diseases: Duchenne muscular dystrophy.

OBJECTIVES: To quantify the magnitude of an ISPOR novel value element, insurance value, as applied to new treatments for a rare, severe disease with pediatric onset: Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD). STUDY DESIGN: Prospective survey of individuals planning to have children in the future. METHODS: A survey was administered to US adults (aged ≥ 21 years) planning to have a child in the future to elicit willingness to pay (WTP) for insurance coverage for a new hypothetical DMD treatment that improved mortality and morbidity relative to the current standard of care. To identify an indifference point between status quo insurance and insurance with additional cost that would cover the treatment if respondents had a child with DMD, a multiple random staircase design was used. Insurance value-the value individuals receive from a reduction in future health risks-was calculated as the difference between respondent's WTP and what a risk-neutral individual would pay. The risk-neutral value was the product of the (1) probability of having a child with DMD (decision weighted), (2) quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained from the new treatment, and (3) WTP per QALY. RESULTS: Among 207 respondents, 80.2% (n = 166) were aged 25 to 44 years, and 59.9% (n = 124) were women. WTP for insurance coverage of the hypothetical treatment was $973 annually, whereas the decision-weighted risk-neutral value was $452 per year. Thus, insurance value constituted 53.5% ($520) of value for new DMD treatments. CONCLUSIONS: Individuals planning to have children in the future are willing to pay more for insurance coverage of novel DMD treatments than is assumed under risk-neutral, QALY-based frameworks.

Disease burden of stroke and its subtypes attributable to low dietary fiber in China, 1990-2019.

This study aimed to assess the current status and changing trends of the disease burden of stroke and its subtypes due to low dietary fiber intake in China from 1990 to 2019. In cases of stroke and its subtypes attributable to low dietary fiber, deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR), age-standardized DALYs rates (ASDR), and percentage change were used to assess disease burden. Data were obtained from the 2019 global burden of disease study. Trends were assessed using Joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort analysis. Between 1990 and 2019, there was a declining trend in stroke and its subtypes, ASDR and ASMR, as well as the corresponding number of deaths and DALYs, due to low dietary fiber intake in China. Subarachnoid hemorrhage (SH) showed the greatest decrease, followed by intracerebral hemorrhage (IH) and ischemic stroke (IS). Local drift curves showed a U-shaped distribution of stroke, IS, and IH DALYs across the whole group and sex-based groups. For mortality, the overall and male trends were similar to those for DALYs, whereas female stroke, IH, and IS showed an upward trend. The DALYs for stroke and IH showed a clear bimodal distribution, IS showed an increasing risk with age. For mortality, the SH subtype showed a decreasing trend, whereas other subtypes showed an increasing risk with age. Both the period and cohort rates of stroke DALYs and motality due to low dietary fiber have declined. Males had a higher risk of DALYs and mortality associated with low fiber levels. The burden of stroke and its subtypes associated with a low-fiber diet in China has been declining over the past 30 years, with different patterns of change for different stroke subtypes and a higher burden for males, highlighting the differential impact of fiber intake on stroke and its subtypes.

Determining the societal value of a prospective drug for ME/CFS in Germany.

BACKGROUND: Myalgic Encephalomyelitis/Chronic Fatigue Syndrome (ME/CFS) imposes a substantial societal and economic burden. The aim of this study is to ascertain the optimal level of public research and development (R&D) investment in Germany for a prospective drug, given the pressing need for effective treatments. METHODS: This study calculates the societal value from a German perspective by integrating health and economic outcomes in the context of public R&D investment for ME/CFS. It considers factors such as direct medical costs, productivity loss, and the effectiveness of a prospective drug. RESULTS: The anticipated introduction of a prospective drug is estimated to yield a quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gain of approximately 29,000 and a societal value of about €2.6 billion. The optimal R&D investment in Germany is estimated at €676 million, which represents about a quarter of the total investment required to bring a significant drug to market, considering diminishing returns and market constraints. Results were confirmed in the sensitivity analysis. CONCLUSIONS: The study concludes that a coordinated international approach is imperative to address the funding and market size limitations effectively in developing treatments for ME/CFS and to realize the substantial societal and economic benefits.

Cost-effectiveness of seasonal influenza vaccination in WHO-defined high-risk populations in Bangladesh.

Background: Bangladesh carries a substantial health and economic burden of seasonal influenza, particularly among the World Health Organization (WHO)-defined high-risk populations. We implemented a modelling study to determine the cost-effectiveness of influenza vaccination in each of five high-risk groups (pregnant women, children under five years of age, adults with underlying health conditions, older adults (≥60 years), and healthcare personnel) to inform policy decisions on risk group prioritisation for influenza vaccination in Bangladesh. Methods: We implemented a Markov decision-analytic model to estimate the impact of influenza vaccination for each target risk group. We obtained model inputs from hospital-based influenza surveillance data, unpublished surveys, and published literature (preferentially from studies in Bangladesh, followed by regional and global ones). We used quality-adjusted life years (QALY) as the health outcome of interest. We also estimated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for each risk group by comparing the costs and QALY of vaccinating compared to not vaccinating each group, where the ICER represents the additional cost needed to achieve one year of additional QALY from a given intervention. We considered a willingness-to-pay threshold (ICER) of less than one gross domestic product (GDP) per capita as highly cost-effective and of one to three times GDP per capita as cost-effective (per WHO standard). For Bangladesh, this threshold ranges between USD 2462 and USD 7386. Results: The estimated ICERs were USD -99, USD -87, USD -4, USD 792, and USD 229 per QALY gained for healthcare personnel, older adults (≥60), children aged less than five years, adults with comorbid conditions, and pregnant women, respectively. For all risk groups, ICERs were below the WHO willingness-to-pay threshold for Bangladesh. Vaccinating pregnant women and adults with comorbid conditions was highly cost-effective per additional life year gained, while vaccinating healthcare personnel, older adults (≥60), and children under five years were cost-saving per additional life year gained. Conclusions: Influenza vaccination to all target risk groups in Bangladesh would be either cost-saving or cost-effective, per WHO guidelines of GDP-based thresholds.

Emollient application from birth to prevent eczema in high-risk children: the BEEP RCT.

Background: Atopic eczema is a common childhood skin problem linked with asthma, food allergy and allergic rhinitis that impairs quality of life. Objectives: To determine whether advising parents to apply daily emollients in the first year can prevent eczema and/or other atopic diseases in high-risk children. Design: A United Kingdom, multicentre, pragmatic, two-arm, parallel-group randomised controlled prevention trial with follow-up to 5 years. Setting: Twelve secondary and four primary care centres. Participants: Healthy infants (at least 37 weeks' gestation) at high risk of developing eczema, screened and consented during the third trimester or post delivery. Interventions: Infants were randomised (1 : 1) within 21 days of birth to apply emollient (Doublebase Gel®; Dermal Laboratories Ltd, Hitchin, UK or Diprobase Cream®) daily to the whole body (excluding scalp) for the first year, plus standard skin-care advice (emollient group) or standard skin-care advice only (control group). Families were not blinded to allocation. Main outcome measures: Primary outcome was eczema diagnosis in the last year at age 2 years, as defined by the UK Working Party refinement of the Hanifin and Rajka diagnostic criteria, assessed by research nurses blinded to allocation. Secondary outcomes up to age 2 years included other eczema definitions, time to onset and severity of eczema, allergic rhinitis, wheezing, allergic sensitisation, food allergy, safety (skin infections and slippages) and cost-effectiveness. Results: One thousand three hundred and ninety-four newborns were randomised between November 2014 and November 2016; 693 emollient and 701 control. Adherence in the emollient group was 88% (466/532), 82% (427/519) and 74% (375/506) at 3, 6 and 12 months. At 2 years, eczema was present in 139/598 (23%) in the emollient group and 150/612 (25%) in controls (adjusted relative risk 0.95, 95% confidence interval 0.78 to 1.16; p = 0.61 and adjusted risk difference -1.2%, 95% confidence interval -5.9% to 3.6%). Other eczema definitions supported the primary analysis. Food allergy (milk, egg, peanut) was present in 41/547 (7.5%) in the emollient group versus 29/568 (5.1%) in controls (adjusted relative risk 1.47, 95% confidence interval 0.93 to 2.33). Mean number of skin infections per child in the first year was 0.23 (standard deviation 0.68) in the emollient group versus 0.15 (standard deviation 0.46) in controls; adjusted incidence rate ratio 1.55, 95% confidence interval 1.15 to 2.09. The adjusted incremental cost per percentage decrease in risk of eczema at 2 years was £5337 (£7281 unadjusted). No difference between the groups in eczema or other atopic diseases was observed during follow-up to age 5 years via parental questionnaires. Limitations: Two emollient types were used which could have had different effects. The median time for starting emollients was 11 days after birth. Some contamination occurred in the control group (< 20%). Participating families were unblinded and reported on some outcomes. Conclusions: We found no evidence that daily emollient during the first year of life prevents eczema in high-risk children. Emollient use was associated with a higher risk of skin infections and a possible increase in food allergy. Emollient use is unlikely to be considered cost-effective in this context. Future research: To pool similar studies in an individual patient data meta-analysis. Trial registration: This trial is registered as ISRCTN21528841. Funding: This award was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme (NIHR award ref: 12/67/12) and is published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 28, No. 29. See the NIHR Funding and Awards website for further award information.

Eczema is a troublesome itchy skin condition affecting 1 in 5 children and 1 in 10 UK adults. There is no cure and affected children are more likely to develop food allergies. We wanted to see if we could prevent eczema by protecting the skin of babies at higher risk of developing eczema (with an immediate relative with eczema, asthma or hay fever) with moisturisers used to treat dry skin. Previous research suggested that protecting the skin barrier might also prevent food allergy. One thousand three hundred and ninety-four families took part in a study; half of them were asked to apply moisturiser every day to their newborn baby for the first year and half to look after their baby's skin in the normal way. At the age of 2 years, we did not see any difference in how common eczema was between the two groups: 23% had eczema in the moisturiser group and 25% in the normal care group. It did not matter how we defined eczema ­ whether examined by a researcher or parent report. We did not find any differences in related conditions like asthma or hay fever either. We found that children using moisturisers had seen their doctor slightly more often for mild skin infections. There was a hint that food allergy might have been increased in the moisturiser group, but there was not enough data to be sure. We followed up the children to age 5 years, but we still did not find any benefits from using moisturisers in early life. Since this study, other similar research has been done using newer types of moisturisers, but their results are the same. This study shows that using daily moisturisers on healthy babies with a high risk of eczema does not prevent eczema. It is one less thing for busy families to worry about.

First-line treatments for extensive-stage small-cell lung cancer with immune checkpoint inhibitors plus chemotherapy: a China-based cost-effectiveness analysis.

Objective: To determine the cost-effectiveness of imported immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) such as atezolizumab and durvalumab, and domestic ICIs like serplulimab and adebrelimab, in combination with chemotherapy for extensive-stage small cell lung cancer (ES-SCLC) in China. Methods: Using a 21-day cycle length and a 20-year time horizon, a Markov model was established to compare the clinical and economic outcomes of five first-line ICIs plus chemotherapy versus chemotherapy alone, as well as against each other, from the perspective of the Chinese healthcare system. Transition probabilities were estimated by combining the results of the CAPSTONE-1 trial and a published network meta-analysis. Cost and health state utilities were collected from multiple sources. Both cost and effectiveness outcomes were discounted at a rate of 5% annually. The primary model output was incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). A series of sensitivity analyses were preformed to assess the robustness of the model. Results: In the base-case analysis, the addition of first-line ICIs to chemotherapy resulted in the ICERs ranged from $80,425.31/QALY to $812,415.46/QALY, which exceeded the willing-to-pay threshold set for the model. When comparing these first-line immunochemotherapy strategies, serplulimab plus chemotherapy had the highest QALYs of 1.51286 and the second lowest costs of $60,519.52, making it is the most cost-effective strategy. Our subgroup-level analysis yielded results that are consistent with the base-case analysis. The sensitivity analysis results confirmed the validity and reliability of the model. Conclusion: In China, the combination of fist-line ICIs plus chemotherapy were not considered cost-effective when compared to chemotherapy alone. However, when these fist-line immunochemotherapy strategies were compared with each other, first-line serplulimab plus chemotherapy consistently demonstrated superiority in terms of cost-effectiveness. Reducing the cost of serplulimab per 4.5 mg/kg would be a realistic step towards making first-line serplulimab plus chemotherapy more accessible and cost-effective.

Cost-utility and budget impact analysis of neoadjuvant dual HER2 targeted therapy for HER2-positive breast cancer in Sri Lanka.

This study aimed to assess the cost-utility and budget impact of dual to single HER2 targeted neoadjuvant therapy for HER2-positive breast cancer in Sri Lanka. A five-health state Markov model with lifetime horizon was used to assess the cost-utility of neoadjuvant trastuzumab (T) plus pertuzumab (P) or lapatinib (L) compared to single therapy of T with chemotherapy (C), in public healthcare system and societal perspectives. Input parameters were estimated using local data, network meta-analysis, published reports and literature. Costs were adjusted to year 2021 (1USD = LKR194.78). Five-year budget impact for public healthcare system was assessed. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios in societal perspective for neoadjuvantLTC plus adjuvantT (strategy 3), neoadjuvantPTC plus adjuvantT (strategy 2), neoadjuvantLTC plus adjuvantLT (strategy 5), and neoadjuvantPTC plus adjuvantPT (strategy 4) compared to neoadjuvantTC plus adjuvantT (strategy 1) were USD2716, USD5600, USD6878, and USD12127 per QALY gained, respectively. One GDP per-capita (USD3815) was considered as the cost-effectiveness threshold for the analysis. Even though only the ICER for strategy 3 was cost-effective, uncertainty of efficacy parameter was revealed. For strategy 2 neoadjuvant PTC plus adjuvant T, a 25% reduction of neoadjuvant regimen cost was required to be cost effective for use in early HER2 positive breast cancer.

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Hepatic Arterial Chemotherapy for Advanced Hepatocellular Carcinoma in China: A Comparative Analysis of HAIC-FO and Sorafenib.

BACKGROUND The FOHAIC-1 trial showed hepatic arterial infusion chemotherapy with infusional fluorouracil, leucovorin, and oxaliplatin (HAIC-FO) improved survival, compared with sorafenib, in patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The aim of this study was to conduct a cost-effectiveness comparison between HAIC-FO and sorafenib from the perspective of the Chinese healthcare system. MATERIAL AND METHODS The economic evaluation was conducted between July 2023 and February 2024, spanning a 10-year investment horizon. A Markov model was developed to perform a cost-effectiveness analysis of HAIC-FO vs sorafenib. Health states incorporated in the model comprised progression-free disease, progressed disease, and death. Transition probabilities were derived from data obtained from the FOHAIC-1 trial. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was calculated to evaluate cost-effectiveness. Additionally, one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses assessed the model's robustness. RESULTS The HAIC-FO group accrued a total cost of $22,781, whereas the sorafenib group totaled $18,795. In terms of effectiveness, the HAIC-FO group achieved 1.06 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), whereas the sorafenib group attained 0.65 QALYs. Compared with sorafenib, HAIC-FO yielded an additional 0.41 QALYs at a cost of additional $3,985, resulting in an incremental cost of $9,720 per QALY gained. The one-way sensitivity analysis revealed the final ICER remained below the willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of $30,492 per QALY, when considering parameter fluctuations. Additionally, probabilistic sensitivity analysis indicated a 99.8% probability that the ICER for HAIC-FO compared with sorafenib would fall below the WTP threshold. CONCLUSIONS Compared with sorafenib, HAIC-FO emerged as a cost-effective first-line treatment option for patients facing advanced HCC in China.

Evaluating water-related health risks in East and Central Asian Islamic Nations using predictive models (2020-2030).

This paper presents a thorough evaluation of health outcomes linked to water-related challenges in Islamic nations across East Asia and Central Asia from 2020 to 2030. It has been examined carefully that the trajectory of deaths and disability-adjusted life years associated with unsafe water sources, lack of sanitation, and absence of handwashing facilities is showing a potential rise in negative health impacts due to water pollution. The direct health influences of water-related problems are thoughtful. The increase in deaths and DALYs due to poor water quality and sanitation leads to a higher occurrence of waterborne diseases such as cholera, diarrhea, and dysentery. These conditions not only cause instant health disasters but also subsidize to long-term health issues which include chronic gastrointestinal disorders and malnutrition that is particularly among susceptible populations like children and the elderly. Employing various predictive models including autoregressive integrated moving average, exponential smoothing, support vector machines, and neural networks. The study evaluates their predictive capabilities by using mean absolute percentage error. Support vector machines is found to be the most accurate in forecasting deaths and disability-adjusted life years which is outperforming autoregressive integrated moving average, exponential smoothing, and neural networks. This research aims to inform stakeholders by providing insights into effective strategies for improving water resource management and public health interventions in the targeted regions.

A scenario based approach to optimizing cost-effectiveness of physician-staffed Helicopter Emergency Medical Services compared to ground-based Emergency Medical Services in Finland.

OBJECTIVES: Since Helicopter Emergency Medical Services (HEMS) is an expensive resource in terms of unit price compared to ground-based Emergency Medical Service (EMS), it is important to further investigate which methods would allow for the optimization of these services. The aim of this study was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of physician-staffed HEMS compared to ground-based EMS in developed scenarios with improvements in triage, aviation performance, and the inclusion of ischemic stroke patients. METHODS: Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was assessed by comparing health outcomes and costs of HEMS versus ground-based EMS across six different scenarios. Estimated 30-day mortality and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were used to measure health benefits. Quality-of-Life (QoL) was assessed with EuroQoL instrument, and a one-way sensitivity analysis was carried out across different patient groups. Survival estimates were evaluated from the national FinnHEMS database, with cost analysis based on the most recent financial reports. RESULTS: The best outcome was achieved in Scenario 3.1 which included a reduction in over-alerts, aviation performance enhancement, and assessment of ischemic stroke patients. This scenario yielded 1077.07-1436.09 additional QALYs with an ICER of 33,703-44,937 €/QALY. This represented a 27.72% increase in the additional QALYs and a 21.05% reduction in the ICER compared to the current practice. CONCLUSIONS: The cost-effectiveness of HEMS can be highly improved by adding stroke patients into the dispatch criteria, as the overall costs are fixed, and the cost-effectiveness is determined based on the utilization rate of capacity.

Temporal Trends and Burden of Rheumatic Heart Disease in South Asia: A Comprehensive Analysis of Three Decades from Global Burden of Disease Study.

Background: The objective of this study is to conduct a temporal analysis of rheumatic heart disease (RHD) disease burden trends over a 30-year period (1991 to 2021), focusing on prevalence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in the South Asia (SA). Methods: In this ecological study, we analyzed data regarding burden of RHD from the Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) study spanning the years 1991 to 2021 for the SA Region. Estimates of the number RHD-related prevalence, deaths, and DALYs along with age-standardized rates (ASR) per 100,000 population and 95% uncertainty intervals (UI) were evaluated. Results: The overall prevalent cases of RHD in the 2021 were 54785.1 × 103 (43328.4 × 103 to 67605.5 × 103), out of which 14378.8 × 103 (11206.9 × 103 to 18056.9 × 103) were from SA. The ASR of point prevalence showed upward trend between 1991 and 2021, at global level and for SA with an average annual percentage change (AAPC) of 0.40 (0.39 to 0.40) and 0.12 (0.11 to 0.13), respectively. The overall number of RHD-related deaths in the 2021 were 373.3 × 103 (324.1 × 103 to 444.8 × 103), out of which 215 × 103 (176.9 × 103 to 287.8 × 103) were from SA, representing 57.6% of the global deaths. The ASR of deaths also showed downward trend between 1991 and 2021, at global level and for SA with an AAPC of -2.66 (-2.70 to -2.63) and -2.07 (-2.14 to -2.00), respectively. The ASR of DALYs showed downward trend between 1990 and 2019, at global level and for South Asian region with an AAPC of -2.47 (-2.49 to -2.44) and -2.22 (-2.27 to -2.17), respectively. Conclusion: The rising age-standardized prevalence of RHD remains a global concern, especially in South Asia which contribute to over 50% of global RHD-related deaths. Encouragingly, declining trends in RHD-related deaths and DALYs hint at progress in RHD management and treatment on both a global and regional scale.

Clinical Outcomes and Cost-Effectiveness of Collaborative Dementia Care: A Secondary Analysis of a Cluster Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: Long-term evidence for the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of collaborative dementia care management (CDCM) is lacking. Objective: To evaluate whether 6 months of CDCM is associated with improved patient clinical outcomes and caregiver burden and is cost-effective compared with usual care over 36 months. Design, Setting, and Participants: This was a prespecified secondary analysis of a general practitioner (GP)-based, cluster randomized, 2-arm clinical trial conducted in Germany from January 1, 2012, to December 31, 2014, with follow-up until March 31, 2018. Participants were aged 70 years or older, lived at home, and screened positive for dementia. Data were analyzed from March 2011 to March 2018. Intervention: The intervention group received CDCM, comprising a comprehensive needs assessment and individualized interventions by nurses specifically qualified for dementia care collaborating with GPs and health care stakeholders over 6 months. The control group received usual care. Main Outcomes and Measures: Main outcomes were neuropsychiatric symptoms (Neuropsychiatric Inventory [NPI]), caregiver burden (Berlin Inventory of Caregivers' Burden in Dementia [BIZA-D]), health-related quality of life (HRQOL, measured by the Quality of Life in Alzheimer Disease scale and 12-Item Short-Form Health Survey [SF-12]), antidementia drug treatment, potentially inappropriate medication, and cost-effectiveness (incremental cost per quality-adjusted life year [QALY]) over 36 months. Outcomes between groups were compared using multivariate regression models adjusted for baseline scores. Results: A total of 308 patients, of whom 221 (71.8%) received CDCM (mean [SD] age, 80.1 [5.3] years; 142 [64.3%] women) and 87 (28.2%) received usual care (mean [SD] age, 79.2 [4.5] years; 50 [57.5%] women), were included in the clinical effectiveness analyses, and 428 (303 [70.8%] CDCM, 125 [29.2%] usual care) were included in the cost-effectiveness analysis (which included 120 patients who had died). Participants receiving CDCM showed significantly fewer behavioral and psychological symptoms (adjusted mean difference [AMD] in NPI score, -10.26 [95% CI, -16.95 to -3.58]; P = .003; Cohen d, -0.78 [95% CI, -1.09 to -0.46]), better mental health (AMD in SF-12 Mental Component Summary score, 2.26 [95% CI, 0.31-4.21]; P = .02; Cohen d, 0.26 [95% CI, -0.11 to 0.51]), and lower caregiver burden (AMD in BIZA-D score, -0.59 [95% CI, -0.81 to -0.37]; P < .001; Cohen d, -0.71 [95% CI, -1.03 to -0.40]). There was no difference between the CDCM group and usual care group in use of antidementia drugs (adjusted odds ratio, 1.91 [95% CI, 0.96-3.77]; P = .07; Cramér V, 0.12) after 36 months. There was no association with overall HRQOL, physical health, or use of potentially inappropriate medication. The CDCM group gained QALYs (0.137 [95% CI, 0.000 to 0.274]; P = .049; Cohen d, 0.20 [95% CI, -0.09 to 0.40]) but had no significant increase in costs (437€ [-5438€ to 6313€] [US $476 (95% CI, -$5927 to $6881)]; P = .87; Cohen d, 0.07 [95% CI, -0.14 to 0.28]), resulting in a cost-effectiveness ratio of 3186€ (US $3472) per QALY. Cost-effectiveness was significantly better for patients living alone (CDCM dominated, with lower costs and more QALYs gained) than for those living with a caregiver (47 538€ [US $51 816] per QALY). Conclusions and Relevance: In this secondary analysis of a cluster randomized clinical trial, CDCM was associated with improved patient, caregiver, and health system-relevant outcomes over 36 months beyond the intervention period. Therefore, it should become a health policy priority to initiate translation of CDCM into routine care. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT01401582.