Study on spatial distribution, regional differences and dynamic evolution of rural financial risk in China.

Based on panel data from 2009 to 2021, covering 30 provinces in China, we have been constructed the Rural Financial Risk Index using the objective entropy weighting method to study rural financial risk in China systematically from the perspective of spatial distribution. Specifically, we discuss the spatial distribution, regional differences and dynamic evolution of rural financial risk across Chinese four different regions divided into the Northeast, East, Central and West. It's found that Local government debt and Land transfer income are the two primary determinants influencing the level of rural financial risk in China. Furthermore, we conclude the ranking value of rural financial risk across four regions that the central exhibits the highest level, followed by the West, the East, and finally the Northeast, where the reasons for such ranking results as follows. Firstly, although the highest level of risk among provinces in the West is equivalent to that in the Central, there exists a smaller minimum rural financial risk in the former compared to the latter. Then, it should be noted that there's a low-low agglomeration of rural financial risk in the Northeast, while it demonstrates a high-high agglomeration in the Central according to the Moran Index test analysis. Again, there's a declining trend in rural financial risk disparity within the region and an upward trend is observed when comparing different regions (except the East vs West), especially increase largely between the Northeast and Central in past two years after analyzing the decomposition of Dagum Gini coefficient. Moreover, we study the absolute differences and dynamic evolution in different four regions through three-dimensional diagram of kernel density estimation, and it's found that the change of rural financial risk in four regions moved to the right as a whole, while the tail distribution remains inconspicuous. The absolute difference is diminishing in the Northeast, and the two-level differentiation characteristics tend to weaken as a whole in the Central, with a disordered wave peak height observed in both the East and West. Finally, the article presents pertinent policy implications but limitations according to the research findings.

Direct and indirect treatment effects in the presence of semicompeting risks.

Semicompeting risks refer to the phenomenon that the terminal event (such as death) can censor the nonterminal event (such as disease progression) but not vice versa. The treatment effect on the terminal event can be delivered either directly following the treatment or indirectly through the nonterminal event. We consider 2 strategies to decompose the total effect into a direct effect and an indirect effect under the framework of mediation analysis in completely randomized experiments by adjusting the prevalence and hazard of nonterminal events, respectively. They require slightly different assumptions on cross-world quantities to achieve identifiability. We establish asymptotic properties for the estimated counterfactual cumulative incidences and decomposed treatment effects. We illustrate the subtle difference between these 2 decompositions through simulation studies and two real-data applications in the Supplementary Materials.

[Association, differences, and applications of three commonly used statistical indicators: risk ratio, hazard ratio, and odds ratio].

Relative Risk (RR), Hazard Ratio (HR), and Odds Ratio (OR) are commonly used statistical measures in the field of public health to assess the magnitude of the effect of exposure factors on outcomes. These indicators have different calculation principles and implications in public health. However, a few researchers misused or misinterpreted RR, HR, and OR values when interpreting study results. Therefore, this article explores the relationships and differences among these measures, as well as the correct selection and application of RR, HR, and OR in both cohort study and case-control study.

A nonparametric proportional risk model to assess a treatment effect in time-to-event data.

Time-to-event analysis often relies on prior parametric assumptions, or, if a semiparametric approach is chosen, Cox's model. This is inherently tied to the assumption of proportional hazards, with the analysis potentially invalidated if this assumption is not fulfilled. In addition, most interpretations focus on the hazard ratio, that is often misinterpreted as the relative risk (RR), the ratio of the cumulative distribution functions. In this paper, we introduce an alternative to current methodology for assessing a treatment effect in a two-group situation, not relying on the proportional hazards assumption but assuming proportional risks. Precisely, we propose a new nonparametric model to directly estimate the RR of two groups to experience an event under the assumption that the risk ratio is constant over time. In addition to this relative measure, our model allows for calculating the number needed to treat as an absolute measure, providing the possibility of an easy and holistic interpretation of the data. We demonstrate the validity of the approach by means of a simulation study and present an application to data from a large randomized controlled trial investigating the effect of dapagliflozin on all-cause mortality.

Risk of meningomyelocele mediated by the common 22q11.2 deletion.

Meningomyelocele is one of the most severe forms of neural tube defects (NTDs) and the most frequent structural birth defect of the central nervous system. We assembled the Spina Bifida Sequencing Consortium to identify causes. Exome and genome sequencing of 715 parent-offspring trios identified six patients with chromosomal 22q11.2 deletions, suggesting a 23-fold increased risk compared with the general population. Furthermore, analysis of a separate 22q11.2 deletion cohort suggested a 12- to 15-fold increased NTD risk of meningomyelocele. The loss of Crkl, one of several neural tube-expressed genes within the minimal deletion interval, was sufficient to replicate NTDs in mice, where both penetrance and expressivity were exacerbated by maternal folate deficiency. Thus, the common 22q11.2 deletion confers substantial meningomyelocele risk, which is partially alleviated by folate supplementation.

Consumers' risk perception, market demand, and firm innovation: Evidence from China.

Major product safety incidents often cause widespread concern among consumers, and these product safety incidents will stimulate consumers' psychology, change their risk perception, and affect the demand for products and services of risk consumers. The change in consumer demand will eventually lead to a change in firm innovation decisions. Using Chinese firm-level data, this paper employs the news reporting of the Bawang event as a quasi-natural experiment to study the impact of risk perception changes on innovation. The empirical results of this study show that increasing consumers' risk perception caused by the negative news coverage of defective products motivates firms to increase their innovation. The effects are heterogeneous, where firms with private ownership and in developed regions are more likely to increase innovation activities. This study suggests that the relationship between consumers' risk perception and firm innovation is primarily driven by market demand. Moreover, the positive effects of risk perception on innovation are more prominent for downstream firms and those having a smaller technological distance.

Committing to the wrong artificial delegate in a collective-risk dilemma is better than directly committing mistakes.

While autonomous artificial agents are assumed to perfectly execute the strategies they are programmed with, humans who design them may make mistakes. These mistakes may lead to a misalignment between the humans' intended goals and their agents' observed behavior, a problem of value alignment. Such an alignment problem may have particularly strong consequences when these autonomous systems are used in social contexts that involve some form of collective risk. By means of an evolutionary game theoretical model, we investigate whether errors in the configuration of artificial agents change the outcome of a collective-risk dilemma, in comparison to a scenario with no delegation. Delegation is here distinguished from no-delegation simply by the moment at which a mistake occurs: either when programming/choosing the agent (in case of delegation) or when executing the actions at each round of the game (in case of no-delegation). We find that, while errors decrease success rate, it is better to delegate and commit to a somewhat flawed strategy, perfectly executed by an autonomous agent, than to commit execution errors directly. Our model also shows that in the long-term, delegation strategies should be favored over no-delegation, if given the choice.

WE economy: Potential of mutual aid distribution based on moral responsibility and risk vulnerability.

Reducing wealth inequality is a global challenge that requires the transformation of the economic systems that produce inequality. The economic system comprises: (1) gifts and reciprocity, (2) power and redistribution, (3) market exchange, and (4) mutual aid without reciprocal obligations. Current inequality stems from a capitalist economy consisting of (2) and (3). To sublimate (1), the human economy, to (4), the concept of a "mixbiotic society" has been proposed in the philosophical realm. In this society, free and diverse individuals mix, recognize their respective "fundamental incapability," and sublimate them into "WE" solidarity. Moreover, the economy must have a moral responsibility as a co-adventurer and consider its vulnerability to risk. This study focuses on two factors of mind perception-moral responsibility and risk vulnerability-and proposes a novel wealth distribution model between the two agents following an econophysical approach, whereas the conventional model dealt with redistribution through taxes and institutions. Three models are developed: a joint-venture model in which profit/losses are distributed based on their factors, a redistribution model in which wealth stocks are redistributed periodically based on their factors in the joint-venture model, and a "WE economy" model in which profit/losses are distributed based on the ratio of each other's factors. A simulation comparison reveals that WE economies are effective in reducing inequality, resilient in normalizing wealth distribution as advantages, and susceptible to free riders as disadvantages. However, this disadvantage can be compensated for by fostering fellowship and using joint ventures. This study presents the effectiveness of moral responsibility and risk vulnerability, complementarity between the WE economy and joint economy, and the direction of the economy in reducing inequality. Future challenges include developing an advanced model based on real economic analysis and economic psychology and promoting its fieldwork for worker coops and platform cooperatives to realize a desirable mixbiotic society.

An integrative framework for mapping the psychological landscape of risk perception.

We vary greatly in our perception of risk, not just because of differences between risks themselves, but also because of individual, contextual and cultural differences too. To better understand and predict responses to risk, we need to (a) integrate these components, combining approaches from different psychological disciplines and (b) also consider risk tolerance - how individuals trade-off between risks and benefits. We therefore developed an ICONS (individual, contextual, cognitive, social) framework; using it across two empirical studies (n = 4228) to examine how individuals perceive and respond to the quotidian risks associated with consumer products. Three dimensions underlined risk perceptions: benefits, dread and individual responsibility. Risk tolerance was typically predicted by interactions between individual (demographic, cultural worldview, personality) and contextual (product type/category, harm information) factors. In turn, perceived dread, benefits and individual differences shaped how likely participants were to communicate risk information. Our results demonstrate for the first time how the interaction between individual, cognitive (risk tolerance, intensity), contextual, and social (risk communication) factors is key to understanding and predicting risk perceptions. Together, our findings help explain why societal responses to risks are often difficult to predict and have implications for the spread, and amplification, of risk information.

Condición física, clínica y fragilidad de adultos mayores en Cali, Colombia / Physical and clinical condition and fragility of older adults in Cali, Colombia

Introducción: A nivel mundial el envejecimiento de la población ha sido un tema de interés a investigar, debido a la carga de morbimortalidad y los costos en salud que ocasiona. Así, resulta relevante indagar sobre aquellos aspectos que hacen más vulnerables a los adultos mayores. Objetivo: Comparar la condición física y clínica según la fragilidad en adultos mayores de Cali, Colombia. Materiales y métodos: Estudio descriptivo transversal en adultos mayores de la ciudad de Cali, Colombia. El estudio tuvo aval ético institucional y todos los adultos mayores aceptaron participar firmando el consentimiento informado. Se usó la batería corta de desempeño físico (SPPB), y se compararon variables sociodemográficas, físicas y clínicas. y por nivel de fragilidad en vigoroso, prefrágil y frágil. Resultados: Se vincularon 470 adultos mayores con una edad promedio de 71,15±7,50 años, y en su mayoría del género femenino. Se presentaron diferencias estadísticamente significativas con un valor de p≤0,05 en la edad, estado socioeconómico, comuna, enfermedad, índice de masa corporal, actividad física, desempeño físico y riesgo de caídas; presentando mayor compromiso el grupo de fragilidad. Conclusión: El grupo de adultos mayores clasificados como frágiles presentaban menor condición física y clínica comparado con los grupos pre-frágiles y vigorosos. (AU)

Introduction: Worldwide, the aging of the population has been a topic of interest to investigate, due to the burden of morbidity and mortality and the health costs it causes. Thus, it is relevant to investigate those aspects that make older adults more vulnerable. Objective: To compare the physical and clinical condition according to frailty in older adults from Cali, Colombia. Materials and methods: Cross-sectional descriptive study in older adults from the city of Cali, Colombia. The study had institutional ethical endorsement and all the older adults agreed to participate by signing the informed consent. The short physical performance battery (SPPB) was used, and sociodemographic, physical and clinical variables and by level of frailty were compared in vigorous, pre-frail and frail. Results: Four hundred and seventy older adults with an average age of 71.15±7.50 years and mostly female were enrolled. There were statistically significant differences, P≤0.05 in age, socioeconomic status, commune, disease, body mass index, physical activity, physical performance, and risk of falls. The fragility group presented greater compromise. Conclusion: The group of older adults classified as frail had a lower physical and clinical condition compared to the pre-frail and vigorous groups. (AU)

Randomized trial of screening for preterm birth in low-risk women - the preterm birth screening study.

BACKGROUND: Preterm birth is a major cause of perinatal morbidity and mortality. It is unclear whether the introduction of a universal transvaginal ultrasound cervical length screening program in women at low risk for preterm delivery is associated with a reduction in the frequency of preterm birth. OBJECTIVE: To test the hypothesis that the introduction of a midtrimester universal transvaginal ultrasound cervical length screening program in asymptomatic singleton pregnancies without prior preterm delivery would reduce the rate of preterm birth at <37 weeks of gestation. STUDY DESIGN: This study was a multicenter nonblinded randomized trial of screening of asymptomatic singleton pregnancies without prior spontaneous preterm birth, who were randomized to either cervical length screening program (ie, intervention group) or no screening (ie, control group). Participants were randomized at the time of their routine anatomy scan between 18 0/7 and 23 6/7 weeks of gestation. Women randomized in the screening group received cervical length measurement. Those who were found to have cervical length ≤25 mm were offered 200 mg vaginal progesterone daily along with cervical pessary. The primary outcome was preterm birth at <37 weeks. The risk of primary outcome was quantified by the relative risk with 95% confidence interval, and was based on the intention-to-screen principle. RESULTS: A total of 1334 asymptomatic women with singleton pregnancies and without prior preterm birth, were included in the trial. Out of the 675 women randomized in the transvaginal ultrasound cervical length screening group, 13 (1.9%) were found to have transvaginal ultrasound cervical length ≤25 mm during the screening. Preterm birth at <37 weeks of gestation occurred in 48 women in the transvaginal ultrasound cervical length screening group (7.5%), and 54 women in the control group (8.7%) (relative risk, 0.86; 95% confidence interval, 0.59-1.25). Women randomized in the transvaginal ultrasound cervical length screening group had no significant differences in the incidence of preterm birth at less than 34, 32, 30, 28, and 24 weeks of gestation. CONCLUSION: The introduction of a universal transvaginal ultrasound cervical length screening program at 18 0/6 to 23 6/7 weeks of gestation in singleton pregnancies without prior spontaneous preterm birth, with treatment for those with cervical length ≤25 mm, did not result in significant lower incidence of preterm delivery than the incidence without the screening program.

Risk of road traffic injury in Norway 1970-2022.

This paper describes changes in the risk of road traffic injury in Norway during the period from 1970 to 2022. During this period, the risk of fatal and personal injury declined by more than 70 % for most groups of road users. There are five main potential explanations of a decline in the risk of injury: (1) a reduced probability of accidents that have the potential for causing injury; (2) an improved protection against injury given that an accident has occurred; (3) improved medical care increasing the survival rate, given an injury (this would reduce the number of fatalities, but not the number of injuries); (4) a tendency for the reporting of injuries in official accident statistics to decline over time; (5) uncertain or erroneous estimates of the exposure to the risk of injury. The decline in the risk of road traffic injuries in Norway after 1970 can probably be attributed to a combination of reduced reporting of injuries in official statistics, improved protection against injury in accidents, and (for fatal injuries) improved medical care. Insurance data, available from 1992, do not indicate a reduction in the risk of accidents leading to insurance claims. Incomplete and possibly erroneous data for mopeds and motorcycles make it impossible to identify sources of changes in injury risk over time for these modes of transport.

Association of hypertension and depression with mortality: an exploratory study with interaction and mediation models.

BACKGROUND: The association of hypertension and depression with mortality has not been fully understood. We aimed to explore the possible independent or joint association of hypertension and depression with mortality. Their interaction effects on mortality and possible mediating role were also investigated. METHODS: Associations of hypertension, depression, and their interaction with all-cause and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality were evaluated using multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression models. The mediation analysis was conducted with a Sobel test. RESULTS: A total of 35152 participants were included in the final analysis. Hypertension and depression were independently associated with increased risk of all-cause and CVD mortality. The co-existence of hypertension and depression resulted in a 1.7-fold [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.3-2.1] increase in all-cause mortality and a 2.3-fold (95% CI: 1.4-3.7) increase in CVD mortality compared to those with neither of them. Hypertension and depression showed no significant multiplicative (P for interaction, 0.587) and additive interaction (P for relative excess risk of interaction, 0.243; P for Interaction on additive scale, 0.654) on all-cause mortality, as well as on CVD mortality. Depression did not mediate the relationship between hypertension and all-cause (Z=1.704, P=0.088) and CVD mortality (Z=1.547, P=0.122). Hypertension did not mediate the relationship between all-cause and CVD mortality as well. CONCLUSION: Hypertension and depression were related to all-cause and CVD mortality independently and the co-existence of them increased the risk of mortality. However, there is no interaction effect of them on mortality, and hypertension or depression did not mediate the association of each other with mortality.

Factor modification in the association between high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and liver cancer risk in a nationwide cohort.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: The effect modification by smoking and menopausal status in the association between high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) and liver cancer risk has not been reported. METHODS: This population-based cohort study included 4.486 million cancer-free individuals among those who underwent national cancer screening in 2010 and were followed up until December 2017. We conducted analyses in populations that excluded people with chronic hepatitis B, chronic hepatitis C and liver cirrhosis (Model I) and that included those diseases (Model III). HDL-C level was classified into eight groups at 10-mg/dL intervals. Liver cancer risk by HDL-C was measured using adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). RESULTS: During follow-up, 18 795 liver cancers in Model I and 20 610 liver cancers in Model III developed. In Model I, low HDL-C levels (aHR 1.83; 95% CI 1.65-2.04) and extremely high HDL-C levels (aHR 1.24; 95% CI 1.10-1.40) were associated with an increased liver cancer risk compared with a moderate HDL-C level of 50-59mg/dL. This association was similar in both men and women with larger effect size in men (aHR, 1.91; 95% CI, 1.70-2.15). The hazardous association between low HDL-C and liver cancer risk was remarkable in current smokers (aHR, 2.19; 95% CI, 1.84-2.60) and in pre-menopausal women (aHR, 2.91; 95% CI, 1.29-6.58) compared with post-menopausal women (aHR, 1.45; 95% CI, 1.10-1.93). This association was similarly observed in Model III. CONCLUSIONS: Low and extremely high HDL-C levels were associated with an increased liver cancer risk. The unfavourable association between low HDL-C and liver cancer was remarkable in smokers and pre-menopausal women.

High burden of human papillomavirus infection among men in Guangzhou, South China: Implications for HPV vaccination strategies.

The epidemiological and clinical aspects of Human Papillomavirus (HPV) infection in women have been extensively studied. However, there is a lack of information regarding HPV characteristics in males. In this study, we conducted a retrospective and observational study of 3737 consecutive male individuals attending outpatient clinics of Guangdong Women and Children Hospital from 2012 to 2023 in Guangzhou, South China, to determine the age- and genotype-specific prevalence of HPV in men. The results showed the overall prevalence of HPV among men was 42.15% (1575/3737), with variations ranging from 29.55% to 81.31% across distinct diagnostic populations. Low-risk HPV6 (15.47%), HPV11 (8.94%), and high-risk HPV52 (5.51%) were the most common types. The annual HPV prevalence decreased significantly (Z = -3.882, p < .001), ranging from 31.44% to 52.90%. 28.77% (1075/3737) of men manifested infection with a singular HPV type, predominantly identified as a low-risk type. The age-specific distribution of HPV infections revealed distinctive peaks in the < 25 y age group (47.60%, 208/437) and the 40-44 y age group (44.51%, 154/346). Notably, the positive rate of Chlamydia trachomatis was significantly higher among HPV-positive individuals in comparison to HPV-negatives (16.14% vs. 11.25%, p < .05). Our findings reveal a substantial prevalence of HPV infection among outpatient men in Guangzhou, South China. It is recommended to consider the inclusion of HPV vaccination for adolescent males in national immunization schedules, once an adequate supply of vaccines is accessible.

Tumor growth manifested in two-fifths of low-risk papillary thyroid microcarcinoma patients during active surveillance: data from a tertiary center in China.

Purpose: To assess tumor growth using tumor doubling rate (TDR) during active surveillance (AS) in China. Methods: Between January 2016 and June 2020, a total of 219 patients with low-risk papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC) (aged 23-75 years) were consecutively enrolled in the AS program. Results: Four sections of TDR, >0.5, 0.1~0.5, -0.1~0.1 and <-0.1, corresponded with four categories of tumor volume kinetics: rapid growth, slow growth, stable, and decreased size. We found that 10.5% of PTMCs exhibited rapid growth, 33.33% exhibited slow growth, 26.48% were stable, and 29.68% decreased in size. Tumor growth was associated with two factors: age and volume of PTMC at diagnosis. 85.72% of elderly patients (≥ 61 years old) had tumors that remained stable or even shrank and rapidly growing tumors were not found in them. When the volume was small (≤14.13 mm3), the proportion of rapid growth was high (41.67%), whereas when the volume was large (> 179.5 mm3), the proportion of non-growth was 68.75%. Conclusion: TDR may be a better metric for evaluating tumor growth in observational PTMCs. A certain proportion of PTMCs grow during the period of AS and tumor growth was associated with age and volume of PTMC at initial diagnosis. Therefore, how to block tumor growth during the AS period, especially for young patients and patients with early-stage PTMC (size ≤ 5 mm), will be a new challenge.