Oesophageal cell collection device and biomarker testing to identify high-risk Barrett's patients requiring endoscopic investigation.

BACKGROUND: Barrett's oesophagus surveillance places significant burden on endoscopy services yet is vital to detect early cancerous change. Oesophageal cell collection device (OCCD) testing was introduced across Scotland for Barrett's surveillance in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. This national pragmatic retrospective study presents the CytoSCOT programme results and evaluates whether OCCD testing is successfully identifying high-risk Barrett's patients requiring urgent endoscopy. METHODS: All patients undergoing OCCD testing for Barrett's surveillance across 11 Scottish health boards over a 32-month period were identified. Patients who underwent endoscopy within 12 months of OCCD test were included. Individual patient records were interrogated to record clinical information and OCCD test result to categorize patients into risk groups. Endoscopic histopathology results were analysed according to risk group and segment length. Patients were deemed high risk if the OCCD test demonstrated atypia and/or p53 positivity. RESULTS: 4204 OCCD tests were performed in 3745 patients: 608 patients underwent endoscopy within 12 months and were included in this analysis. Patients with longer Barrett's segments were significantly more likely to have an abnormal OCCD test. 50/608 patients (8.2%) had high-grade dysplasia or cancer on endoscopic biopsies: this equates to 1.3% of the total group (50/3745). 46/50 patients (92.0%) were deemed high risk, triggering urgent endoscopy: this rose to 100% with insufficient tests removed. There were no cancers diagnosed within 12 months post-OCCD in the low-risk group. CONCLUSION: OCCD testing is an effective triage tool to identify high-risk patients with Barrett's oesophagus requiring further investigation with endoscopy within the real-world setting.

Insights for clinical management from the real-life data of the centralized West of Scotland biliary cancer clinic.

BACKGROUND: With the increasing of novel therapeutics for the treatment of Biliary Tract Cancers (BTC), and the need to assess their socio-economic impacts for national licence approvals, it is as important as ever to have real-life data in national populations. METHODS AND RESULTS: We performed an audit of the first 2 year-activity (Sep 2019-Sep 2021) of the centralized West-of-Scotland-BTC clinic. 122 patients accessed the service, including 68% with cholangiocarcinoma (CCA), 27% with gallbladder cancer (GBC), and 5% with ampulla of Vater carcinoma with biliary phenotype (AVC). Median age at diagnosis was 66 (28-84), with 30% of newly diagnosed patients being younger than 60 years-old. Thirty-five cases (29%) underwent surgery, followed by adjuvant-chemotherapy in 66%. 60% had recurrent disease (80% with distant relapse). Sixty-four patients (58%) started first-line Systemic-AntiCancer-Treatment (SACT). Of these, 37% received second line SACT, the majority of which had iCCA and GBC. Thirty-% of those who progressed received third line SACT. CONCLUSIONS: About 30% of BTC were eligible for curative surgery. Fifty-eight and twenty% of the overall cohort of advanced BTC patients received first and second line SACT. Our data suggest that reflex genomic profiling may not be cost-effective until molecularly driven strategies are limited to second line setting.

Epidural analgesia during labour and severe maternal morbidity: population based study.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the effect of labour epidural on severe maternal morbidity (SMM) and to explore whether this effect might be greater in women with a medical indication for epidural analgesia during labour, or with preterm labour. DESIGN: Population based study. SETTING: All NHS hospitals in Scotland. PARTICIPANTS: 567 216 women in labour at 24+0 to 42+6 weeks' gestation between 1 January 2007 and 31 December 2019, delivering vaginally or through unplanned caesarean section. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome was SMM, defined as the presence of ≥1 of 21 conditions used by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) as criteria for SMM, or a critical care admission, with either occurring at any point from date of delivery to 42 days post partum (described as SMM). Secondary outcomes included a composite of ≥1 of the 21 CDC conditions and critical care admission (SMM plus critical care admission), and respiratory morbidity. RESULTS: Of the 567 216 women, 125 024 (22.0%) had epidural analgesia during labour. SMM occurred in 2412 women (4.3 per 1000 births, 95% confidence interval (CI) 4.1 to 4.4). Epidural analgesia was associated with a reduction in SMM (adjusted relative risk 0.65, 95% CI 0.50 to 0.85), SMM plus critical care admission (0.46, 0.29 to 0.73), and respiratory morbidity (0.42, 0.16 to 1.15), although the last of these was underpowered and had wide confidence intervals. Greater risk reductions in SMM were detected among women with a medical indication for epidural analgesia (0.50, 0.34 to 0.72) compared with those with no such indication (0.67, 0.43 to 1.03; P<0.001 for difference). More marked reductions in SMM were seen in women delivering preterm (0.53, 0.37 to 0.76) compared with those delivering at term or post term (1.09, 0.98 to 1.21; P<0.001 for difference). The observed reduced risk of SMM with epidural analgesia was increasingly noticeable as gestational age at birth decreased in the whole cohort, and in women with a medical indication for epidural analgesia. CONCLUSION: Epidural analgesia during labour was associated with a 35% reduction in SMM, and showed a more pronounced effect in women with medical indications for epidural analgesia and with preterm births. Expanding access to epidural analgesia for all women during labour, and particularly for those at greatest risk, could improve maternal health.

A social network analysis approach to assess COVID19-related disruption to substance use treatment and informal social interactions among people who use drugs in Scotland.

AIMS: To assess the extent of Coronavirus-related disruption to health and social care treatment and social interactions among people with lived or living experience of substance use in Scotland, and explore potential reasons for variations in disruption. DESIGN: Cross sectional mixed methods interview, incorporating a social network 'egonet interview' approach asking about whether participants had interactions with a range of substance use, health, social care or third sector organisations, or informal social interactions. SETTING: Five Alcohol and Drug Partnership Areas in Scotland. PARTICIPANTS: 57 (42% women) participants were involved in the study, on average 42 years old. MEASUREMENTS: Five-point Likert scale reporting whether interactions with a range of services and people had gotten much better, better, no different (or no change), worse, or much worse since COVID19 and lockdown. Ratings were nested within participants (Individuals provided multiple ratings) and some ratings were also nested within treatment service (services received multiple ratings). The nested structure was accounted for using cross classified ordinal logistic multilevel models. FINDINGS: While the overall average suggested only a slight negative change in interactions (mean rating 2.93), there were substantial variations according to type of interaction, and between individuals. Reported change was more often negative for mental health services (Adjusted OR = 0.93 95% CI 0.17,0.90), and positive for pharmacies (3.03 95% CI 1.36, 5.93). The models found between-participant variation of around 10%, and negligible between-service variation of around 1% in ratings. Ratings didn't vary by individual age or gender but there was variation between areas. CONCLUSIONS: Substance use treatment service adaptations due to COVID19 lockdown led to both positive and negative service user experiences. Social network methods provide an effective way to describe complex system-wide interaction patterns, and to measure variations at the individual, service, and area level.

Nemabiome metabarcoding shows a high prevalence of Haemonchus contortus and predominance of Camelostrongylus mentulatus in alpaca herds in the northern UK.

Gastrointestinal nematodes (GINs) are a common threat faced by pastoral livestock. Since their major introduction to the UK in the early 1990s, South American camelids have been cograzed with sheep, horses, and other livestock, allowing exposure to a range of GIN species. However, there have been no molecular-based studies to investigate the GIN populations present in these camelids. In the current study, we sampled nine alpaca herds from northern England and southern Scotland and used high-throughput metabarcoded sequencing to describe their GIN species composition. A total of 71 amplicon sequence variants (ASVs) were identified representing eight known GIN species. Haemonchus contortus was the most prevalent species found in almost all herds in significant proportions. The identification of H. contortus in other livestock species is unusual in the northern UK, implying that alpacas may be suitable hosts and potential reservoirs for infection in other hosts. In addition, the camelid-adapted GIN species Camelostrongylus mentulatus was identified predominantly in herds with higher faecal egg counts. These findings highlight the value of applying advanced molecular methods, such as nemabiome metabarcoding to describe the dynamics of gastrointestinal nematode infections in novel situations. The results provide a strong base for further studies involving cograzing animals to confirm the potential role of alpacas in transmitting GIN species between hosts.

The Effect of Pandemic on Lung Cancer Waiting Time - Tertiary Center Experience.

BACKGROUND: Early diagnosis and treatment of lung cancer are crucial to improve the survival and the outcomes in patients who are diagnosed with lung cancer. Many factors can affect the waiting time for lung cancer treatment, however, the corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was one of the major factors that universally slowed down clinical activities in the last three years. We are aiming with this study to demonstrate how this pandemic and other factors affected the lung cancer waiting times for diagnosis and treatment. METHODS: This is a retrospective study including 670 patients who were diagnosed with lung cancer within the NHS Lothian region of Edinburgh - Scotland between March 2019 and November 2023. One hundred patients underwent curative lung resection. Patients were categorised into three groups for sub analysis. The first group included patients diagnosed before the COVID-19 pandemic, the second group included patients diagnosed during the pandemic in 2020, and the third group represents those diagnosed after the mass vaccination program was established and until November 2023. RESULTS: The average waiting time between the referral from the GP to the date of surgery in the three groups was 88.5 days, 81 days, and 83.5 days, respectively. On the other hand, the waiting times elapsing between the first surgical clinic appointment and the date of the surgery itself were 17.6 days, 18.6 days, and 21.5 days, respectively. CONCLUSION: Unexpectedly waiting times elapsing between the referral to surgery and the date of surgery amongst lung cancer patients showed improvement during the COVID-19 pandemic. This is likely due to prioritizing cancer patients. Nevertheless, actions should be considered to decrease the waiting times in general.

Application of the Universal Definition of Myocardial Infarction in Clinical Practice in Scotland and Sweden.

Importance: Whether the diagnostic classifications proposed by the universal definition of myocardial infarction (MI) to identify type 1 MI due to atherothrombosis and type 2 MI due to myocardial oxygen supply-demand imbalance have been applied consistently in clinical practice is unknown. Objective: To evaluate the application of the universal definition of MI in consecutive patients with possible MI across 2 health care systems. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study used data from 2 prospective cohorts enrolling consecutive patients with possible MI in Scotland (2013-2016) and Sweden (2011-2014) to assess accuracy of clinical diagnosis of MI recorded in hospital records for patients with an adjudicated diagnosis of type 1 or type 2 MI. Data were analyzed from August 2022 to February 2023. Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcome was the proportion of patients with a clinical diagnosis of MI recorded in the hospital records who had type 1 or type 2 MI, adjudicated by an independent panel according to the universal definition. Characteristics and risk of subsequent MI or cardiovascular death at 1 year were compared. Results: A total of 50 356 patients were assessed. The cohort from Scotland included 28 783 (15 562 men [54%]; mean [SD] age, 60 [17] years), and the cohort from Sweden included 21 573 (11 110 men [51%]; mean [SD] age, 56 [17] years) patients. In Scotland, a clinical diagnosis of MI was recorded in 2506 of 3187 patients with an adjudicated diagnosis of type 1 MI (79%) and 122 of 716 patients with an adjudicated diagnosis of type 2 MI (17%). Similar findings were observed in Sweden, with 970 of 1111 patients with adjudicated diagnosis of type 1 MI (87%) and 57 of 251 patients with adjudicated diagnosis of type 2 MI (23%) receiving a clinical diagnosis of MI. Patients with an adjudicated diagnosis of type 1 MI without a clinical diagnosis were more likely to be women (eg, 336 women [49%] vs 909 women [36%] in Scotland; P < .001) and older (mean [SD] age, 71 [14] v 67 [14] years in Scotland, P < .001) and, when adjusting for competing risk from noncardiovascular death, were at similar or increased risk of subsequent MI or cardiovascular death compared with patients with a clinical diagnosis of MI (eg, 29% vs 18% in Scotland; P < .001). Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study, the universal definition of MI was not consistently applied in clinical practice, with a minority of patients with type 2 MI identified, and type 1 MI underrecognized in women and older persons, suggesting uncertainty remains regarding the diagnostic criteria or value of the classification.

SARS-CoV-2 vaccine uptake and risks of severe COVID-19 disease among people prescribed opioid agonist therapy in Scotland.

BACKGROUND: There is limited evidence quantifying the risk of severe COVID-19 disease among people with opioid dependence. We examined vaccine uptake and severe disease (admission to critical care or death with COVID-19) among individuals prescribed opioid agonist therapy (OAT). METHOD: A case-control design was used to examine vaccine uptake in those prescribed OAT compared with the general population, and the association between severe disease and OAT. In both analyses, 10 controls from the general population were matched (to each OAT recipient and COVID-19 case, respectively) according to socio-demographic factors. Conditional logistic regression was used to estimate rate ratios (RR) for severe disease. RESULTS: Vaccine uptake was markedly lower in the OAT cohort (dose 1: 67%, dose 2: 53% and dose 3: 31%) compared with matched controls (76%, 72% and 57%, respectively). Those prescribed OAT within the last 5 years, compared with those not prescribed, had increased risk of severe COVID-19 (RR 3.38, 95% CI 2.75 to 4.15), particularly in the fourth wave (RR 6.58, 95% CI 4.20 to 10.32); adjustment for comorbidity and vaccine status attenuated this risk (adjusted RR (aRR) 2.43, 95% CI 1.95 to 3.02; wave 4 aRR 3.78, 95% CI 2.30 to 6.20). Increased risk was also observed for those prescribed OAT previously (>3 months ago) compared with recently (aRR 1.74, 95% CI 1.11 to 2.71). CONCLUSIONS: The widening gap in vaccine coverage for those prescribed OAT, compared with the general population, is likely to have exacerbated the risk of severe COVID-19 in this population over the pandemic. However, continued OAT use may have provided protection from severe COVID-19 among those with opioid dependence.

Rates and causes of death after release from incarceration among 1 471 526 people in eight high-income and middle-income countries: an individual participant data meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Formerly incarcerated people have exceptionally poor health profiles and are at increased risk of preventable mortality when compared with their general population peers. However, not enough is known about the epidemiology of mortality in this population-specifically the rates, causes, and timing of death in specific subgroups and regions-to inform the development of targeted, evidence-based responses. We aimed to document the incidence, timing, causes, and risk factors for mortality after release from incarceration. METHODS: We analysed linked administrative data from the multi-national Mortality After Release from Incarceration Consortium (MARIC) study. We examined mortality outcomes for 1 471 526 people released from incarceration in eight countries (Australia, Brazil, Canada, New Zealand, Norway, Scotland, Sweden, and the USA) from 1980 to 2018, across 10 534 441 person-years of follow-up (range 0-24 years per person). We combined data from 18 cohort studies using two-step individual participant data meta-analyses to estimate pooled all-cause and cause-specific crude mortality rates (CMRs) per 100 000 person-years, for specific time periods (first, daily from days 1-14; second, weekly from weeks 3-12; third, weeks 13-52 combined; fourth, weeks 53 and over combined; and fifth, total follow-up) after release, overall and stratified by age, sex, and region. FINDINGS: 75 427 deaths were recorded. The all-cause CMR during the first week following release (1612 [95% CI 1048-2287]) was higher than during all other time periods (incidence rate ratio [IRR] compared with week 2: 1·5 [95% CI 1·2-1·8], I2=26·0%, weeks 3-4: 2·0 [1·5-2·6], I2=53·0%, and weeks 9-12: 2·2 [1·6-3·0], I2=70·5%). The highest cause-specific mortality rates during the first week were due to alcohol and other drug poisoning (CMR 657 [95% CI 332-1076]), suicide (135 [36-277]), and cardiovascular disease (71 [16-153]). We observed considerable variation in cause-specific CMRs over time since release and across regions. Pooled all-cause CMRs were similar between males (731 [95% CI 630-839]) and females (660 [560-767]) and were higher in older age groups. INTERPRETATION: The markedly elevated rate of death in the first week post-release underscores an urgent need for investment in evidence-based, coordinated transitional healthcare, including treatment for mental illness and substance use disorders to prevent post-release deaths due to suicide and overdose. Temporal variations in rates and causes of death highlight the need for routine monitoring of post-release mortality. FUNDING: Australia's National Health and Medical Research Council.

Patterns of initial and first-intensifying antidiabetic drug utilization among patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus in Scotland, 2010-2020: A retrospective population-based cohort study.

AIM: To evaluate the utilization and prescribing patterns of antidiabetic drugs (ADDs) for patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) at treatment initiation and first intensification. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was performed using linked routinely collected data of patients with T2DM who received ADDs between January 2010 and December 2020 in Scotland. The prescribing patterns were quantified using frequency/percentages, absolute/relative change, and trend tests. RESULTS: Overall, 145 909 new ADD users were identified, with approximately 91% (N = 132 382) of patients receiving a single ADD at first treatment initiation. Metformin was the most often prescribed monotherapy (N = 118 737, 89.69%). A total of 50 731 patients (39.40%) who were started on metformin (N = 46 730/118 737, 39.36%) or sulphonylurea (SU; N = 4001/10 029, 39.89%) monotherapy had their treatment intensified with one or more additional ADD. Most initial-metformin (45 963/46 730; 98.36%) and initial-SU users (3894/4001; 97.33%) who added further drugs were intensified with single ADDs. SUs (22 197/45 963; 48.29%) were the most common first-intensifying monotherapy after initial metformin use, but these were replaced by sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 (SGLT2) inhibitors in 2019 (SGLT2 inhibitors: 2039/6065, 33.62% vs. SUs: 1924/6065, 31.72%). Metformin was the most frequently added monotherapy to initial SU use (2924/3894, 75.09%). Although the majority of patients received a single ADD, the use of combination therapy significantly increased over time. Nevertheless, there was a significant increasing trend towards prescribing the newer ADD classes (SGLT2 inhibitors, dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors) as monotherapy or in combination compared with the older ones (SUs, insulin, thiazolidinediones) at both drug initiation and first intensification. CONCLUSIONS: An overall increasing trend in prescribing the newer ADD classes compared to older ADDs was observed. However, metformin remained the most commonly prescribed first-line ADD, while SGLT2 inhibitors replaced SUs as the most common add-on therapy to initial metformin use in 2019.

Community antibiotic prescribing in patients with COVID-19 across three pandemic waves: a population-based study in Scotland, UK.

OBJECTIVES: This study aims to examine community antibiotic prescribing across a complete geographical area for people with a positive COVID-19 test across three pandemic waves, and to examine health and demographic factors associated with antibiotic prescribing. DESIGN: A population-based study using administrative data. SETTING: A complete geographical region within Scotland, UK. PARTICIPANTS: Residents of two National Health Service Scotland health boards with SARS-CoV-2 virus test results from 1 February 2020 to 31 March 2022 (n=184 954). Individuals with a positive test result (n=16 025) had data linked to prescription and hospital admission data ±28 days of the test, general practice data for high-risk comorbidities and demographic data. OUTCOME MEASURES: The associations between patient factors and the odds of antibiotic prescription in COVID-19 episodes across three pandemic waves from multivariate binary logistic regression. RESULTS: Data included 768 206 tests for 184 954 individuals, identifying 16 240 COVID-19 episodes involving 16 025 individuals. There were 3263 antibiotic prescriptions ±28 days for 2395 episodes. 35.6% of episodes had a prescription only before the test date, 52.3% of episodes after and 12.1% before and after. Antibiotic prescribing reduced over time: 20.4% of episodes in wave 1, 17.7% in wave 2 and 12.0% in wave 3. In multivariate logistic regression, being female (OR 1.31, 95% CI 1.19 to 1.45), older (OR 3.02, 95% CI 2.50 to 3.68 75+ vs <25 years), having a high-risk comorbidity (OR 1.45, 95% CI 1.31 to 1.61), a hospital admission ±28 days of an episode (OR 1.58, 95% CI 1.42 to 1.77) and health board region (OR 1.14, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.25, board B vs A) increased the odds of receiving an antibiotic. CONCLUSION: Community antibiotic prescriptions in COVID-19 episodes were uncommon in this population and likelihood was associated with patient factors. The reduction over pandemic waves may represent increased knowledge regarding COVID-19 treatment and/or evolving symptomatology.

Ongoing burden and recent trends in severe hospitalised hypoglycaemia events in people with type 1 and type 2 diabetes in Scotland: A nationwide cohort study 2016-2022.

AIMS: We examined severe hospitalised hypoglycaemia (SHH) rates in people with type 1 and type 2 diabetes in Scotland during 2016-2022, stratifying by sociodemographics. METHODS: Using the Scottish National diabetes register (SCI-Diabetes), we identified people with type 1 and type 2 diabetes alive anytime during 2016-2022. SHH events were determined through linkage to hospital admission and death registry data. We calculated annual SHH rates overall and by age, sex, and socioeconomic status. Summary estimates of time and stratum effects were obtained by fitting adjusted generalised additive models using R package mgcv. RESULTS: Rates for those under 20 with type 1 diabetes reached their minimum at the 2020-2021 transition, 30% below the study period average. A gradual decline over time also occurred among 20-49-year-olds with type 1 diabetes. Overall, females had 15% higher rates than males with type 2 diabetes (rate ratio 1.15, 95% CI 1.08-1.22). People in the most versus least deprived quintile experienced 2.58 times higher rates (95% CI 2.27-2.93) in type 1 diabetes and 2.33 times higher (95% CI 2.08-2.62) in type 2 diabetes. CONCLUSIONS: Despite advances in care, SHH remains a significant problem in diabetes. Future efforts must address the large socioeconomic disparities in SHH risks.

Increase in invasive Streptococcus pyogenes M1 infections with close evolutionary genetic relationship, Iceland and Scotland, 2022 to 2023.

Group A Streptococcus isolates of the recently described M1UK clade have emerged to cause human infections in several European countries and elsewhere. Full-genome sequence analysis of M1 isolates discovered a close genomic relationship between some isolates from Scotland and the majority of isolates from Iceland causing serious infections in 2022 and 2023. Phylogenetic analysis strongly suggests that an isolate from or related to Scotland was the precursor to an M1UK variant responsible for almost all recent M1 infections in Iceland.

Circulating 25-hydroxyvitamin D and survival outcomes of colorectal cancer: evidence from population-based prospective cohorts and Mendelian randomisation.

BACKGROUND: To investigate the association between circulating 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25-OHD) and colorectal cancer (CRC) survival outcomes. METHODS: We conducted analyses among the Study of Colorectal Cancer in Scotland (SOCCS) and the UK Biobank (UKBB). Both cancer-specific survival (CSS) and overall survival (OS) outcomes were examined. The 25-OHD levels were categorised into three groups, and multi-variable Cox-proportional hazard models were applied to estimate hazard ratios (HRs). We performed individual-level Mendelian randomisation (MR) through the generated polygenic risk scores (PRS) of 25-OHD and summary-level MR using the inverse-variance weighted (IVW) method. RESULTS: We observed significantly poorer CSS (HR = 0.65,95%CI = 0.55-0.76,P = 1.03 × 10-7) and OS (HR = 0.66,95%CI = 0.58-0.75,P = 8.15 × 10-11) in patients with the lowest compared to those with the highest 25-OHD after adjusting for covariates. These associations remained across patients with varied tumour sites and stages. However, we found no significant association between 25-OHD PRS and either CSS (HR = 0.98,95%CI = 0.80-1.19,P = 0.83) or OS (HR = 1.07,95%CI = 0.91-1.25,P = 0.42). Furthermore, we found no evidence for causal effects by conducting summary-level MR analysis for either CSS (IVW:HR = 1.04,95%CI = 0.85-1.28,P = 0.70) or OS (IVW:HR = 1.10,95%CI = 0.93-1.31,P = 0.25). CONCLUSION: This study supports the observed association between lower circulating 25-OHD and poorer survival outcomes for CRC patients. Whilst the genotype-specific association between better outcomes and higher 25-OHD is intriguing, we found no support for causality using MR approaches.

Exploring the impact of traumatic injury on mortality: An analysis of the certified cause of death within one year of serious injury in the Scottish population.

BACKGROUND: Few studies effectively quantify the long-term incidence of death following injury. The absence of detailed mortality and underlying cause of death data results in limited understanding and a potential underestimation of the consequences at a population level. This study takes a nationwide approach to identify the one-year mortality following injury in Scotland, evaluating survivorship in relation to pre-existing comorbidities and incidental causes of death. STUDY DESIGN: This retrospective cohort study assessed the one-year mortality of adult trauma patients with an Injury Severity Score ≥ 9 during 2020 using the Scottish Trauma Audit Group (STAG) registry linked to inpatient hospital data and death certificate records. Patients were divided into three groups: trauma death, trauma-contributed death, and non-trauma death. Kaplan-Meier curves were used for survival analysis to evaluate mortality, and cox proportional hazards regression analysed risk factors linked to death. RESULTS: 4056 patients were analysed with a median age 63 years (58-88) and male predominance (55.2 %). Falls accounted for 73.1 % of injuries followed by motor vehicle accidents (16.3 %) and blunt force (4.9 %). Extremity was the most commonly injured region overall followed by chest and head. However, head injury prevailed in those who died. The registry demonstrated a one-year mortality of 19.3 % with 55 % deaths occurring post-discharge. Of all deaths reported, 35.3 % were trauma deaths, and 47.7 % were trauma-contributed deaths. These groups accounted for over 70 % of mortality within 30 days of hospital admission and continued to represent the majority of deaths up to 6 months post-injury. Patients who died after 6 months were mainly the result of non-traumatic causes, frequently circulatory, neoplastic, and respiratory diseases (37.7 %, 12.3 %, 9.1 %, respectively). Independent risk factors for one-year mortality included a GCS ≤ 8, modified Charlson Comorbidity score >5, Injury Severity Score >25, serious head injury, age and sex. CONCLUSION: With a one-year mortality of 19.3 %, and post-discharge deaths higher than previously appreciated, patients can face an extended period of survival uncertainty. As mortality due to index trauma lasted up to 6 months post-admission, short-term outcomes fail to represent trauma burden and so cogent survival predictions should be avoided in clinical and patient settings.

Association between benzodiazepine coprescription and mortality in people on opioid replacement therapy: a population-based cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the association between opioid replacement therapy (ORT) and benzodiazepine (BZD) coprescription and all-cause mortality compared with the prescription of ORT alone. DESIGN: Population-based cohort study. SETTING: Scotland, UK. PARTICIPANTS: Participants were people prescribed ORT between January 2010 and end of December 2020 aged 18 years or above. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: All-cause mortality, drug-related deaths and non-drug related deaths. SECONDARY OUTCOME: ORT continuous treatment duration. ANALYSIS: Cox regression with time-varying covariates. RESULTS: During follow-up, 5776 of 46 899 participants died: 1398 while on coprescription and 4378 while on ORT only. The mortality per 100 person years was 3.11 during coprescription and 2.34 on ORT only. The adjusted HR for all-cause mortality was 1.17 (1.10 to 1.24). The adjusted HR for drug-related death was 1.14 (95% CI, 1.04 to 1.24) and the hazard for death not classified as drug-related was 1.19 (95% CI, 1.09 to 1.30). CONCLUSION: Coprescription of BZDs in ORT was associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality, although with a small effect size than the international literature. Coprescribing was also associated with longer retention in treatment. Risk from BZD coprescription needs to be balanced against the risk from illicit BZDs and unplanned treatment discontinuation. A randomised controlled trial is urgently needed to provide a clear clinical direction. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT04622995.

Integrating Shared Socioeconomic Pathway-informed adaptation into temperature-related mortality projections under climate change.

The extent to which populations will successfully adapt to continued warming temperatures will be a crucial factor in determining future health burdens. Previous health impact assessments of future temperature-related mortality burdens mostly disregard adaptation or make simplistic assumptions. We apply a novel evidence-based approach to model adaptation that takes into account the fact that adaptation potential is likely to vary at different temperatures. Temporal changes in age-specific mortality risk associated with low and high temperatures were characterised for Scotland between 1974 and 2018 using temperature-specific RR ratios to reflect past changes in adaptive capacity. Three scenarios of future adaption were constructed consistent with the SSPs. These adaptation projections were combined with climate and population projections to estimate the mortality burdens attributable to high (above the 90th percentile of the historical temperature distribution) and low (below the 10th percentile) temperatures up to 2080 under five RCP-SSP scenarios. A decomposition analysis was conducted to attribute the change in the mortality burden into adaptation, climate and population. In 1980-2000, the heat burden (21 deaths/year) was smaller than the colder burden (312 deaths/year). In the 2060-2080 period, the heat burden was projected to be the highest under RCP8.5-SSP5 (1285 deaths/year), and the cold burden was the highest under RCP4.5-SSP4 (320 deaths/year). The net burden was lowest under RCP2.6-SSP1 and highest under RCP8.5-SSP5. Improvements in adaptation was the largest factor reducing the cold burden under RCP2.6-SSP1 whilst temperature increase was the biggest factor contributing to the high heat burdens under RCP8.5-SSP5. Ambient heat will become a more important health determinant than cold in Scotland under all climate change and socio-economic scenarios. Adaptive capacity will not fully counter projected increases in heat deaths, underscoring the need for more ambitious climate mitigation measures for Scotland and elsewhere.

Association of ectoparasite Lepeophtheirus salmonis counts on farmed Atlantic salmon and wild sea trout in Scotland.

Parasitic sea lice (Copepoda: Caligidae) colonising marine salmonid (Salmoniformes: Salmonidae) aquaculture production facilities have been implicated as a possible pressure on wild salmon and sea trout populations. This investigation uses monitoring data from the mainland west coast and Western Isles of Scotland to estimate the association of the abundance of adult female Lepeophtheirus salmonis (Krøyer) colonising farmed Atlantic salmon Salmo salar L. with the occurrence of juvenile and mobile L. salmonis on wild sea trout, anadromous S. trutta L. The associations were evaluated using generalised linear mixed models incorporating farmed adult female salmon louse abundances which are temporally lagged relative to dependent wild trout values. The pattern of lags, which is consistent with time for L. salmonis development between egg and infective stage, was evaluated using model deviances. A significant positive association is identified between adult female L. salmonis abundance on farms and juvenile L. salmonis on wild trout. This association is consistent with a causal relationship in which increases in the number of L. salmonis copepodids originating from lice colonising farmed Atlantic salmon cause an increase of L. salmonis abundance on wild sea trout.

The incidence of cancer following hospitalisation for a burn injury in Scotland 2009-2019: A retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Studies suggest increased occurrence of cancer in persons who have experienced a burn injury with hospital admission. OBJECTIVE: To determine the incidence of cancer among those hospitalised for burn injuries in Scotland compared with a similar group without a history of burn injury hospitalisation. METHOD: A retrospective cohort design was used to compare cancer (ICD10 C00-97, excluding C44) incidence in two groups: 6805 burn injury patients discharged from Scottish hospitals between 2009 and 2019, and 25,946 subjects from the general population who were matched to burn patients by sex, year of birth, and degree of social deprivation. Cancer incidence was identified from the Scottish cancer registry. Cox proportional hazard regression was used to model time to cancer incidence adjusting for age, sex, degree of deprivation and presence of a comorbidity. Cancer risk was presented as standardised incidence ratios (SIRs) and hazard ratios (HR). RESULTS: We found a higher prevalence of pre-existing conditions, particularly alcohol abuse among patients with burns. Pre-existing cancers were more common in the burn cohort (3.5%) than the comparison group (1.7%) and were excluded from further analysis. Over a median follow-up of 4-5 years, a total of 236 (3.5%) burn patients and 969 (3.7%) persons in the comparison group were diagnosed with cancer. At 0-6 months the cancer SIR for burn patients was 1.88 95% CI (1.40-2.52). After excluding the first six months of follow-up, the overall incidence of cancer was marginally elevated in burn patients (SIR 1.04, 95% CI 0.90-1.19, p = 0.62) and not statistically different from the incidence in comparison subjects (adjusted HR 1.03, 95% CI 0.88-1.21, p = 0.71). CONCLUSIONS: Patients that suffer burn injury have a higher incidence of cancer than the general population and a group matched by age, sex and degree of deprivation. A higher incidence of adverse health-related behaviours such as smoking, alcohol use and pre-existing health conditions among many patients that suffer a burn most likely explain this observed increase. Any persisting inflammatory or immune dysfunction following burn injury is unlikely to account for the increase in cancers in this study.