Effect of fluoridated water on invasive NHS dental treatments for adults: the LOTUS retrospective cohort study and economic evaluation.

Background: Most water fluoridation studies were conducted on children before the widespread introduction of fluoride toothpastes. There is a lack of evidence that can be applied to contemporary populations, particularly adolescents and adults. Objective: To pragmatically assess the clinical and cost effectiveness of water fluoridation for preventing dental treatment and improving oral health in a contemporary population of adults, using a natural experiment design. Design: Retrospective cohort study using routinely collected National Health Service dental claims (FP17) data. Setting: National Health Service primary dental care: general dental practices, prisons, community dental services, domiciliary settings, urgent/out-of-hours and specialised referral-only services. Participants: Dental patients aged 12 years and over living in England (n = 6,370,280). Intervention and comparison: Individuals exposed to drinking water with a fluoride concentration ≥ 0.7 mg F/l between 2010 and 2020 were matched to non-exposed individuals on key characteristics using propensity scores. Outcome measures: Primary: number of National Health Service invasive dental treatments (restorations/'fillings' and extractions) received per person between 2010 and 2020. Secondary: decayed, missing and filled teeth, missing teeth, inequalities, cost effectiveness and return on investment. Data sources: National Health Service Business Services Authority dental claims data. Water quality monitoring data. Primary outcome: Predicted mean number of invasive dental treatments was 3% lower in the optimally fluoridated group than in the sub/non-optimally fluoridated group (incidence rate ratio 0.969, 95% CI 0.967 to 0.971), a difference of -0.173 invasive dental treatments (95% CI -0.185 to -0.161). This magnitude of effect is smaller than what most stakeholders we engaged with (n = 50/54) considered meaningful. Secondary outcomes: Mean decayed, missing and filled teeth were 2% lower in the optimally fluoridated group, with a difference of -0.212 decayed, missing and filled teeth (95% CI -0.229 to -0.194). There was no statistically significant difference in the mean number of missing teeth per person (0.006, 95% CI -0.008 to 0.021). There was no compelling evidence that water fluoridation reduced social inequalities in treatments received or missing teeth; however, decayed, missing and filled teeth data did not demonstrate a typical inequalities gradient. Optimal water fluoridation in England in 2010-20 was estimated to cost £10.30 per person (excluding original setup costs). Mean National Health Service treatment costs for fluoridated patients 2010-20 were 5.5% lower per person, by £22.26 (95% CI -£23.09 to -£21.43), and patients paid £7.64 less in National Health Service dental charges per person (2020 prices). Limitations: Pragmatic, observational study with potential for non-differential errors of misclassification in fluoridation assignment and outcome measurement and residual and/or unmeasured confounding. Decayed, missing and filled teeth data have not been validated. Water fluoridation cost estimates are based on existing programmes between 2010 and 2020, and therefore do not include the potentially significant capital investment required for new programmes. Conclusions: Receipt of optimal water fluoridation between 2010 and 2020 resulted in very small health effects, which may not be meaningful for individuals, and we could find no evidence of a reduction in social inequalities. Existing water fluoridation programmes in England produced a positive return on investment between 2010 and 2020 due to slightly lower National Health Service treatment costs. These relatively small savings should be evaluated against the projected costs and lifespan of any proposed capital investment in water fluoridation, including new programmes. Future work: National Health Service dental data are a valuable resource for research. Further validation and measures to improve quality and completeness are warranted. Trial registrations: This trial is registered as ISRCTN96479279, CAG: 20/CAG/0072, IRAS: 20/NE/0144. Funding: This award was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Public Health Research programme (NIHR award ref: NIHR128533) and is published in full in Public Health Research; Vol. 12, No. 5. See the NIHR Funding and Awards website for further award information.

Fluoride is a natural mineral that prevents tooth decay. It is added to some drinking water and toothpastes to improve dental health. Water with fluoride added is known as 'optimally fluoridated'. Most research on water fluoridation was carried out before fluoride was added to toothpastes in the 1970s and only included children. We wanted to know if water fluoridation still produced large reductions in tooth decay, now that decay levels are much lower because of fluoride in toothpaste. We also wanted to look at its effect on adults and teenagers. Dental patients we spoke to told us they worried about needing treatment with the 'drill', or 'injection', losing their teeth and paying for their dental care. To see if water fluoridation helped with these concerns, we compared the National Health Service dental records of 6.4 million adults and teenagers who received optimally fluoridated or non-optimally fluoridated water in England between 2010 and 2020. We found water fluoridation made a very small difference to each person. Between 2010 and 2020, the number of NHS fillings and extractions was 3% lower per person for those who received optimally fluoridated water. We found no difference in the number of teeth lost per person and no strong sign that fluoridation reduced differences in dental health between rich and poor areas. Between 2010 and 2020, the cost of optimal water fluoridation was £10.30 per person (not including setup costs). National Health Service dental patients who received optimally fluoridated water cost the National Health Service £22.26 (5.5%) less and paid £7.64 (2%) less per person in National Health Service dental charges over the 10 years. The benefits we found are much smaller than in the past, when toothpastes did not contain fluoride. The cost to set up a new water fluoridation programme can be high. Communities may need to consider if these smaller benefits would still outweigh the costs.

Pharmaceutical company payments to NHS trusts.

Overview of: Ozieranski P, Saghy E, Mulinari S. Pharmaceutical industry payments to NHS trusts in England: a four-year analysis of the Disclosure UK database. PLoS One 2023;18:e0290022.

Pulsed field ablation with the pentaspline catheter compared with cryoablation for the treatment of paroxysmal atrial fibrillation in the UK NHS: a cost-comparison analysis.

OBJECTIVES: Pulsed field ablation (PFA) is a promising new ablation modality for the treatment of atrial fibrillation (AF) that has recently become available in the UK National Health Service (NHS). We provide the first known economic evaluation of the technology. METHODS: A cost-comparison model was developed to compare the expected 12-month costs of treating AF using the pentaspline PFA catheter compared with cryoablation for a single hypothetical patient. Model parameters were based on a recent cost-effectiveness analysis by the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence where possible or published literature otherwise. Deterministic sensitivity, scenario and threshold analyses were conducted. RESULTS: Costs for a single patient treated with PFA were -3% (-£343) less over 12 months than those who received treatment with cryoablation. PFA was associated with 16% higher catheter costs but repeat ablation costs were over 50% less, driven by a reduction in repeat ablations required. Costs of managing complications were -£211 less in total for PFA compared with cryoablation. CONCLUSIONS: Routine adoption of PFA with the pentaspline PFA catheter looks to be as affordable for the NHS as current treatment alternative cryoablation.

Poverty proofing healthcare: A qualitative study of barriers to accessing healthcare for low-income families with children in northern England.

Poverty impacts negatively on children's health and future life chances. Access to the UK's National Health Service (NHS) is based on clinical need rather than the ability to pay but horizontal inequities in access exist. Children North East, a charity supporting children experiencing poverty, are working with partners to reduce the impacts of poverty on NHS access. This collaborative study aimed to understand barriers to healthcare access faced by families living on low incomes to validate and support further development of a Poverty Proofing© healthcare tool. Twenty-four parents and eight Voluntary Community Social Enterprise sector staff participated in qualitative interviews or focus groups. Data were analysed thematically, and three main themes were identified as impacting access to healthcare: hidden costs, securing appointments and developing relationships with healthcare providers. We conclude that low-income families experience both financial and other barriers to accessing NHS healthcare and that these barriers are exacerbated for low-income families living in remote/rural areas.

The avoiding late diagnosis of ovarian cancer (ALDO) project; a pilot national surveillance programme for women with pathogenic germline variants in BRCA1 and BRCA2.

BACKGROUND: Our study aimed to establish 'real-world' performance and cost-effectiveness of ovarian cancer (OC) surveillance in women with pathogenic germline BRCA1/2 variants who defer risk-reducing bilateral salpingo-oophorectomy (RRSO). METHODS: Our study recruited 875 female BRCA1/2-heterozygotes at 13 UK centres and via an online media campaign, with 767 undergoing at least one 4-monthly surveillance test with the Risk of Ovarian Cancer Algorithm (ROCA) test. Surveillance performance was calculated with modelling of occult cancers detected at RRSO. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was calculated using Markov population cohort simulation. RESULTS: Our study identified 8 OCs during 1277 women screen years: 2 occult OCs at RRSO (both stage 1a), and 6 screen-detected; 3 of 6 (50%) were ≤stage 3a and 5 of 6 (83%) were completely surgically cytoreduced. Modelled sensitivity, specificity, Positive Predictive Value (PPV) and Negative Predictive Value (NPV) for OC were 87.5% (95% CI, 47.3 to 99.7), 99.9% (99.9-100), 75% (34.9-96.8) and 99.9% (99.9-100), respectively. The predicted number of quality-adjusted life years (QALY) gained by surveillance was 0.179 with an ICER cost-saving of -£102,496/QALY. CONCLUSION: OC surveillance for women deferring RRSO in a 'real-world' setting is feasible and demonstrates similar performance to research trials; it down-stages OC, leading to a high complete cytoreduction rate and is cost-saving in the UK National Health Service (NHS) setting. While RRSO remains recommended management, ROCA-based surveillance may be considered for female BRCA-heterozygotes who are deferring such surgery.

Uncovering the treatable burden of severe aortic stenosis in the UK.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the population prevalence and treatable burden of severe aortic stenosis (AS) in the UK. METHODS: We adapted a contemporary model of the population profile of symptomatic and asymptomatic severe AS in Europe and North America to estimate the number of people aged ≥55 years in the UK who might benefit from surgical aortic valve replacement (SAVR) or transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI). RESULTS: With a point prevalence of 1.48%, we estimate that 291 448 men and women aged ≥55 years in the UK had severe AS in 2019. Of these, 68.3% (199 059, 95% CI 1 77 201 to 221 355 people) would have been symptomatic and, therefore, more readily treated according to their surgical risk profile; the remaining 31.7% of cases (92 389, 95% CI 70 093 to 144 247) being asymptomatic. Based on historical patterns of intervention, 58.4% (116 251, 95% CI 106 895 to 1 25 606) of the 199 059 symptomatic cases would qualify for SAVR, with 7208 (95% CI 7091 to 7234) being assessed as being in a high, preoperative surgical risk category. Among the remaining 41.6% (82 809, 95% CI 73 453 to 92 164) of cases potentially unsuitable for SAVR, an estimated 61.7% (51 093, 95% CI 34 780 to 67 655) might be suitable for TAVI. We estimate that 172 859 out of 291 448 prevalent cases of severe AS (59.3%) will subsequently die within 5 years without proactive management. CONCLUSIONS: These data suggest a high burden of severe AS in the UK requiring surgical or transcatheter intervention that challenges the ongoing capacity of the National Health Service to meet the needs of those affected.

Accounting for inflation within NICE cost-effectiveness thresholds.

BACKGROUND: The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) makes recommendations on the reimbursement of new drugs utilizing an Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratio (ICER) threshold range that has been in use since 2004 and has remained unchanged. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: To model how the NICE cost-effectiveness thresholds would vary if inflation was accounted for and their potential effects on appraisal outcomes, all single technology appraisal (STA) recommendations published in 2019 were identified. The outcome and most plausible ICERs were then evaluated against thresholds, after taking inflation into account. RESULTS: 41 STAs with base-case ICERs were identified. For general STAs, 46% of ICERs were ≤£20,000/QALY, 27% were £20,000-£30,000/QALY and 27% >£30,000/QALY. Cumulatively, there was a 43% decrease in the purchasing power of the pound from 2004 to 2019 due to inflation. To compensate, the NICE ICER threshold would have to increase to £28,584-£42,876/QALY. Using inflation-adjusted thresholds led to an absolute increase of 18% and 12% of STAs whose ICERs fell below the lower and upper bounds of this threshold range, respectively. CONCLUSION: By not adjusting for inflation, the NICE ICER thresholds have declined in real terms. Whether ICER thresholds should be dynamic to reflect factors like inflation requires further research.