Risk factors for secondary thyroid cancer in patients with breast cancer: a propensity­matched SEER analysis.

With the rapid development of imaging technology and comprehensive treatment in modern medicine, the early diagnosis rate of breast cancer is constantly improving, and the prognosis is also improving; As breast cancer patients survive longer, the risk of developing second primary cancers increases. Since both breast and thyroid are Hormone receptor sensitive organs, which are regulated by hypothalamus pituitary target gland endocrine axis, changes in body endocrine status may lead to the occurrence of these two diseases in succession or simultaneously. This study extracted clinical data and survival outcomes of breast cancer patients registered in the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database between 2010 and 2019. After matching the case and controls with propensity scores, the selected patients were randomly split into training and test datasets at a ratio of 7:3. Univariate and multivariate COX proportional regression analysis is used to determine independent risk factors for secondary thyroid cancer and construct a column chart prediction model. Age, ethnicity, whether radiotherapy, tumor primary location, N stage, M stage were identified by Cox regression as independent factors affecting secondary thyroid cancer in patients with breast cancer patients, and a risk factor nomogram was established to predict patients' 3 and 5 year survival probabilities. The AUC values for 3 and 5 years in the training set were 0.713, 0.707, and the c-index was 0.693 (95% CI 0.67144, 0.71456), and the AUC values for 3 and 5 years in the validation set were 0.681, 0.681, and the c-index was 0.673 (95% CI 0.64164, 0.70436), respectively.

Natural History and Prognostic Model of Untreated Papillary Thyroid Cancer: A SEER Database Analysis.

PURPOSE: This investigation leveraged the SEER database to delve into the progression patterns of PTC when left untreated. Furthermore, it aimed to devise and authenticate a nomogram for prognosis prediction for such patients. METHODS: We extracted data from the SEER database, focusing on PTC-diagnosed individuals from 2004-2020. To discern disease progression intervals, median survival times across stages were gauged, and the disease progression time was estimated by subtracting the median survival time of a more severe stage from its preceding stage. Prognostic determinants in the training set were pinpointed using both univariate and multivariate Cox regression. Using these determinants, a prognostic nomogram was crafted. RESULTS: In untreated PTC patients, those in stages I and II had a favorable prognosis, with 10-year overall survival rates of 86.34% and 66.03%, respectively. Patients in stages III and IV had a relatively poorer prognosis. The median survival time of stage III, stage IVA, stage IVB and stage IVC patients was 108months, 43 months, 20 months and 8 months, respectively. The deduced progression intervals from stages III-IVC were 65, 23, and 12 months. In the training set, age, tumor stage, gender, and marital status were identified as independent risk factors influencing the prognosis of untreated PTC, and a nomogram was constructed using these variables. CONCLUSION: In the absence of treatment intervention, early-stage PTC progressed slowly with an overall favorable prognosis. However, in mid to advanced-stage PTC, as tumor stage increased, disease progression accelerated, and prognosis gradually worsened. Age, tumor stage, marital status, and gender were independent risk factors influencing the prognosis of untreated PTC, and the nomogram based on these factors demonstrated good prognostic capability.

PurposeThis investigation leveraged the SEER database to delve into the progression patterns of PTC when left untreated. Furthermore, it aimed to devise and authenticate a nomogram for prognosis prediction for such patients.MethodsWe extracted data from the SEER database, focusing on PTC-diagnosed individuals from 2004-2020. To discern disease progression intervals, median survival times across stages were gauged, and the disease progression time was estimated by subtracting the median survival time of a more severe stage from its preceding stage. Prognostic determinants in the training set were pinpointed using both univariate and multivariate Cox regression. Using these determinants, a prognostic nomogram was crafted.ResultsIn untreated PTC patients, those in stages I and II had a favorable prognosis, with ten-year overall survival rates of 86.34% and 66.03%, respectively. Patients in stages III and IV had a relatively poorer prognosis. The median survival time of stage III, stage IVA, stage IVB and stage IVC patients was 108months, 43 months, 20 months and 8 months, respectively. The deduced progression intervals from stages III-IVC were 65, 23, and 12 months. In the training set, age, tumor stage, gender, and marital status were identified as independent risk factors influencing the prognosis of untreated PTC, and a nomogram was constructed using these variables.ConclusionIn the absence of treatment intervention, early-stage PTC progressed slowly with an overall favorable prognosis. However, in mid to advanced-stage PTC, as tumor stage increased, disease progression accelerated, and prognosis gradually worsened. Age, tumor stage, marital status, and gender were independent risk factors influencing the prognosis of untreated PTC, and the nomogram based on these factors demonstrated good prognostic capability.

Causal association of sleep traits with the risk of thyroid cancer: A mendelian randomization study.

BACKGROUND: This study was to explore the causal associations of sleep traits including sleep duration, snoring, chronotype, sleep disorders, getting up in the morning, sleeplessness/insomnia and nap during day with the risk of thyroid cancer based on Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis. METHOD: Summary single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP)-phenotype association data were obtained from published genome-wide association studies (GWASs) using the FinnGen and UK Biobank databases. A series of screening processes were performed to select qualified SNPs strongly related to exposure. We applied the inverse variance weighted (IVW), the Mendelian Randomization robust adjusted profile score (MR-RAPS), the Mendelian randomization pleiotropy residual sum and outlier (MR-PRESSO), and the Weighted Median to estimate the causal links between sleep traits and the risk of thyroid cancer. Odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) were calculated. RESULTS: The IVW results showed that getting up in the morning (OR = 0.055, 95%CI: 0.004-0.741) and napping during day (OR = 0.031, 95%CI: 0.002-0.462) were associated with decreased risk of thyroid cancer in the Italian population. A 1.30-h decrease of sleep duration was associated with 7.307-fold of thyroid cancer risk in the Finnish population (OR = 7.307, 95%CI: 1.642-32.519). Cronotype could decrease the risk of thyroid cancer in the Finnish population (OR = 0.282, 95%CI: 0.085-0.939). Sleep disorders increased the risk of thyroid cancer in the Finnish population (OR = 2.298, 95%CI: 1.194-4.422). The combined results revealed that sleep duration was correlated with increased risk of thyroid cancer (OR = 5.600, 95%CI: 1.458-21.486). CONCLUSION: Decreased sleep duration was associated with increased risk of thyroid cancer, which indicated the importance of adequate sleep for the prevention of thyroid cancer.

Trends and projections of the global burden of thyroid cancer from 1990 to 2030.

Background: We aimed to explore the burden of thyroid cancer worldwide from 1990 to 2019 and to project its future trends from 2020 to 2030. Methods: Based on annual data on thyroid cancer cases from 1990 to 2019 available in the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database, we calculated the age-standardised incidence, death, and disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rates for thyroid cancer. We used the estimated annual percentage change (EPAC) to quantify the temporal trends in these age-standardised rates from 1990 to 2019 and applied generalised additive models to project the disease burden from 2020 to 2030. Results: The global age-standardised incidence rate (ASIR) of thyroid cancer increased from 1990 to 2019, with a higher overall disease burden in women than in men at both study time points. The male-to-female ratios for the ASIR increased from 0.41 in 1990 to 0.51 in 2019, while the ratio for the age-standardised death rate (ASDR) increased from 0.60 to 0.82. The models predicted the United Arab Emirates would have the fastest rising trend in both the ASIR (estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC) = 4.19) and age-standardised DALY rate (EAPC = 4.36) in 2020-30, while Saint Kitts and Nevis will have the fastest rising trend in the ASDR (EAPC = 2.29). Meanwhile, the growth trends for the ASDR and age-standardised DALY rate are projected to increase across countries in this period. A correlation analysis of the global burden of thyroid cancer between 1990-2019 and 2020-30 showed a significant positive correlation between the increase in the ASIR and socio-demographic index (SDI) in low-SDI and low-middle-SDI countries. Conclusions: The global burden of thyroid cancer is increasing, especially in the female population and in low-middle-SDI regions, underscoring a need to target them for effective prevention, diagnosis, and treatment.

Spatial and temporal analysis of thyroid cancer incidence in Guilan Province, Northern Iran, 2009-2018.

BACKGROUND: Thyroid cancer is one of the most common malignancies of the endocrine system, the fifth most common malignancy in women worldwide, and the second most common cancer in women over 50 in 2019. It is the sixth most common cancer in both sexes and the third most common cancer in women in Guilan province. This study was conducted to describe the geographic variation and investigate any changes in the trend of the thyroid cancer incidence rate. METHODS: This study was conducted on the data of the Guilan University of Medical Sciences cancer registration system. The crude and age-standardized incidence rate was calculated per 100,000 person-years. Joinpoint regression analysis evaluated the time trends and annual percent changes (APC). The incidence rate was estimated separately for each city and high-risk areas were shown on the province map using GIS software. RESULTS: 1742 cases of thyroid cancer (83.7 % in women and 16.3 % in men) were registered in Guilan province from 2009 to 18. The incidence of thyroid cancer was 5.1-fold higher in women than men. The results of the joinpoint regression analysis showed that the age-standardized incidence rate of thyroid cancer in both sexes has increased significantly over ten years (APC: 26.4; 95 %CI: 22.5-30.4), (P-value < 0.001). In our study, Astaneh-ye Ashrafiyeh, Lahijan, and Langarud cities were identified as high-risk areas of the province for both sexes. CONCLUSION: The trend of incidence of thyroid cancer in Guilan province is increasing. Also, a wide geographical variation was found in the incidence of thyroid cancer.

Coexistence of Hashimoto's thyroiditis and papillary thyroid carcinoma revisited in thyroidology, an experience from an endemic region: fad or future?

OBJECTIVE: Papillary thyroid carcinoma, per se, is the most common type of thyroid cancer, and Hashimoto's thyroiditis is the most frequent autoimmune disease of the papillon gland. The liaison between Hashimoto's thyroiditis and thyroid cancers is still an ongoing debate in thyroidology. The aim of the study was to discuss the frequency of the co-occurrence of Hashimoto's thyroiditis and papillary thyroid carcinoma. METHODS: This study is designed as a retrospective analytical cohort study. The institutional database and archive of histopathology scanning identified the patients who had undergone thyroidectomy between January 2022 and January 2016. The Statistical Package for Social Sciences v21.0 program was used for statistical purposes. Descriptive and chi-square tests were applied, and a p<0.05 was considered significant. RESULTS: Of 498 patients who had undergone thyroidectomy for 4 years, 99 (20%) were male and 399 (80%) were female. Of note, papillary thyroid carcinoma was revealed in 160 (32%) patients, and Hashimoto's thyroiditis was recognized in 178 (35.74%) patients. The prevalence of Hashimoto's thyroiditis in cases with papillary thyroid carcinoma was 43.8%, while the prevalence in patients with Hashimoto's thyroiditis was 41.1%. CONCLUSION: A debate still remains on the propriety of these two phenomena. Herewith, we recognized a correlation between the presence of papillary thyroid carcinoma and Hashimoto's thyroiditis. Providers should be vigilant about the coexistence of these phenomena. We might postulate the so-called total thyroidectomy for cases with a cytologic diagnosis of Hashimoto's thyroiditis with a papillary thyroid carcinoma. As a matter of fact, this issue merits further investigation.

Risk of second primary thyroid cancer in cancer survivors.

A risk factor for thyroid cancer (TC) may be a history of former cancer and cancer therapy. The precise risk of a second primary thyroid carcinoma has not yet been revealed. In this study, we evaluated standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) of second primary thyroid cancer (SPTC) with consideration of different conditions and further analyzed the clinicopathological characteristics and survival of these patients. The cohort was selected from the US Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program between 1975 and 2019. The standardized incidence ratios, morbidity risk, clinicopathological features, and survival of second primary thyroid carcinoma were analyzed. Propensity score matching (PSM) was used to balance covariates. Kaplan-Meier method was performed to assess the survival outcomes. Overall, 7066 patients with SPTC and 83,113 patients with primary TC were identified. The SIR of TC in tumor patients was 1.51/10,000, statistically higher than the natural population (0.94/10,000, P < 0.05). The most significant tumors contributing to the increased SIRs of SPTC were acute lymphocytic leukemia (3.49/10,000), Hodgkin's lymphoma-nodal (3.29/10,000), salivary gland cancer (3.23/10,000), and kidney and renal pelvis cancer (3.05/10,000). The incidence of TC increased significantly in tumor patients who received radiotherapy/chemotherapy before age 35. The age at diagnosis of the SPTC was much older than the primary TC (64.01 vs. 49.55 years, p < 0.001). The SPTC had a higher percentage of histological grades 3/4 (23.14% vs. 15.19%, p < 0.001). Survival analyses demonstrated a worse prognosis for the SPTC group compared to the primary TC group. But after PSM, the survival outcomes of the two groups tended to be equivalent (P = 0.584). The SIRs of TC are higher in tumor patients. The most significant factors contributing to the increased risk of SPTC were some specific former tumors and acceptance of radiotherapy/ chemotherapy before age 35. There was no significant difference in survival between SPTC and primary TC.

Radioactive iodine refractoriness in Middle Eastern differentiated thyroid cancer: clinical outcome and risk factor analysis.

Background: Radioactive iodine refractory differentiated thyroid cancer (RAIR-DTC) has received increasing attention due to its poor prognosis. However, outcomes may vary among patients with RAIR-DTC. The role of clinico-pathological and molecular prognostic factors in survival remains controversial, resulting in difficulty in selecting patients for new targeted therapies. We assessed mortality rate and DTC-specific survival in Middle Eastern RAIR-DTC to identify prognostic factors associated with survival. Methods: This single center, retrospective study enrolled 268 patients with RAIR-DTC. Mortality rate and DTC-specific survival were analyzed to identify prognostic factors related to survival. Univariate and multivariate analysis were performed using Cox proportional hazards model. Results: Of the 268 cases of RAIR-DTC, 40.3% (108/268) had absent 131I uptake (either on diagnostic or post-therapy whole body scan), 15.3% (41/268) had progressive disease (PD) despite 131I, 7.5% (20/268) had persistent disease despite cumulative activity of I131 of >600 mCi and 36.9% (n=99/268) developed distant metastasis. On multivariate analysis, age (more than 45 years), presence of metastatic disease and tumors harboring telomerase reverse transcriptase (TERT) promoter mutations were independent prognostic factors for poor DTC-specific survival. Subjects were divided into 3 groups according to the number of risk factors; low risk (no risk factors); intermediate (≤ 2 risk factors); and high risk (all the 3 risk factors). Ten-year DTC-specific survival rates in low, intermediate and high-risk groups were 100.0%, 92.9% and 53.6%, respectively. Conclusions: The contribution of age greater than 45 years to RAIR-DTC mortality is impactful. Older age, presence of distant metastasis and TERT mutations could be used as early predictors of RAIR-DTC cases. The identification of prognostic factors for poor survival in RAIR-DTC may improve the selection of patients for more personalized surveillance and therapeutic modalities.

Thyroid Malignancy in Patients Who Underwent Thyroidectomy for Multinodular Goiter and Solitary Thyroid Nodule.

PURPOSE: Worldwide, incidence of thyroid malignancy is increasing. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the pattern and magnitude of nodule types. METHODS: A cross-sectional retrospective study was performed at Saint Paul's Hospital Millennium Medical College, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, among patients who underwent thyroidectomy from May 2018 to June 2022. Data were extracted using a structured format. Descriptive statistics were performed using SPSS version 26 software. Results were presented in terms of percentages and frequencies. RESULTS: During a 4-year period, 1,476 patients had thyroidectomies and histopathologic information of 212 malignant cases was studied. Within multinodular goiter (MNG), thyroid cancer accounted for 69.8% (n = 148) of patients, whereas in solitary nodules, it accounted for 30.2%. From the total, 160 participants (75.5%) were female, and the female:male ratio was 3.1 (mean, 41.72; ± standard deviation [SD], 16.44) years, and age range of 12-88 years versus men, who have a mean of 44.71 (±SD, 14.91) years and an age range of 21-78 years. The mean age of male cases with solitary nodule and MNG was 40.6 and 46.5 years, respectively. The most frequent cancer in both types of nodules, accounting for 59% of patients, was papillary carcinoma, which was found in 64% of solitary nodules and 57.4% of multinodular nodules. Overall, 14.1% of tumors had multiple centers (17.4% in multinodular nodules and 6.9% in solitary nodules). In 7.1% of patients, microcarcinoma (<1 cm) was found, with papillary carcinoma accounting for 91.7% of the total. CONCLUSION: Compared with men, women with cancer typically manifested at a younger age. Males with malignancy in solitary nodules had a lower mean age than those with MNGs. The most frequent and significant cause of multicentric presentation is papillary carcinoma.

Association between diabetes and subsequent malignancy risk among older breast cancer survivors.

Type II diabetes is associated with cancer risk in the general population but has not been well studied as a risk factor for subsequent malignancies among cancer survivors. We investigated the association between diabetes and subsequent cancer risk among older (66-84 years), 1-year breast cancer survivors within the linked Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER)-Medicare database using Cox regression analyses to quantify hazard ratios (HR) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). Among 133 324 women, 29.3% were diagnosed with diabetes before or concurrent with their breast cancer diagnosis, and 10 452 women developed subsequent malignancies over a median follow-up of 4.3 years. Diabetes was statistically significantly associated with liver (HR = 2.35, 95% CI = 1.48 to 3.74), brain (HR = 1.94, 95% CI = 1.26 to 2.96), and thyroid cancer risks (HR = 1.38, 95% CI = 1.01 to 1.89). Future studies are needed to better understand the spectrum of subsequent cancers associated with diabetes and the role of diabetes medications in modifying subsequent cancer risk, alone or in combination with cancer treatments.

Update on Pediatric Thyroid Cancer Incidence and Mortality Trends in the United States, 2000-2018.

Thyroid cancer is the most common endocrine malignancy in the pediatric population. A recent study has revealed a recent decline in overall US thyroid cancer incidence rates. The aim of this study is to assess whether there has been a corresponding decline in incidence rates in the pediatric population. We used the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database to analyze the pediatric thyroid cancer incidence rate. The results demonstrate that the incidence rate of pediatric thyroid cancer continued to increase from 2000 to 2018. Future studies are needed to understand how recent changes in guidelines are affecting incidence rates.

Overweight as a biomarker for concomitant thyroid cancer in patients with Graves' disease.

The incidence of concomitant thyroid cancer in Graves' disease varies and Graves' disease can make the diagnosis and management of thyroid nodules more challenging. Since the majority of Graves' disease patients primarily received non-surgical treatment, identifying biomarkers for concomitant thyroid cancer in patients with Graves' disease may facilitate planning the surgery. The aim of this study is to identify the biomarkers for concurrent thyroid cancer in Graves' disease patients and evaluate the impact of being overweight on cancer risk. This retrospective cohort study analyzed 122 patients with Graves' disease who underwent thyroid surgery at Seoul St. Mary's Hospital (Seoul, Korea) from May 2010 to December 2022. Body mass index (BMI), preoperative thyroid function test, and thyroid stimulating hormone receptor antibody (TR-Ab) were measured. Overweight was defined as a BMI of 25 kg/m² or higher according to the World Health Organization (WHO). Most patients (88.5%) underwent total or near-total thyroidectomy. Multivariate analysis revealed that patients who were overweight had a higher risk of malignancy (Odds ratios, 3.108; 95% confidence intervals, 1.196-8.831; p = 0.021). Lower gland weight and lower preoperative TR-Ab were also biomarkers for malignancy in Graves' disease. Overweight patients with Graves' disease had a higher risk of thyroid cancer than non-overweight patients. A comprehensive assessment of overweight patients with Graves' disease is imperative for identifying concomitant thyroid cancer.

Association of major depression, schizophrenia and bipolar disorder with thyroid cancer: a bidirectional two-sample mendelian randomized study.

BACKGROUND: Major depressive disease (MDD), schizophrenia (SCZ), and bipolar disorder (BD) are common psychiatric disorders, and their relationship with thyroid cancer has been of great interest. This study aimed to investigate the potential causal effects of MDD, SCZ, BD, and thyroid cancer. METHODS: We used publicly available summary statistics from large-scale genome-wide association studies to select genetic variant loci associated with MDD, SCZ, BD, and thyroid cancer as instrumental variables (IVs), which were quality controlled and clustered. Additionally, we used three Mendelian randomization (MR) methods, inverse variance weighted (IVW), MR-Egger regression and weighted median estimator (WME) methods, to estimate the bidirectional causal relationship between psychiatric disorders and thyroid cancer. In addition, we performed heterogeneity and multivariate tests to verify the validity of the IVs. RESULTS: We used two-sample bidirectional MR analysis to determine whether there was a positive causal association between MDD and thyroid cancer risk. The results of the IVW analysis (OR = 3.956 95% CI = 1.177-13.299; P = 0.026) and the WME method (OR = 5.563 95% CI = 0.998-31.008; P = 0.050) confirmed that MDD may increase the risk of thyroid cancer. Additionally, our study revealed a correlation between genetic susceptibility to SCZ and thyroid cancer (OR = 1.532 95% CI = 1.123-2.088; P = 0.007). The results of the WME method analysis based on the median estimate (OR = 1.599 95% CI = 1.014-2.521; P = 0.043) also suggested that SCZ may increase the risk of thyroid cancer. Furthermore, our study did not find a causal relationship between BD and thyroid cancer incidence. In addition, the results of reverse MR analysis showed no significant causal relationships between thyroid cancer and MDD, SCZ, or BD (P > 0.05), ruling out the possibility of reverse causality. CONCLUSIONS: This MR method analysis provides new evidence that MDD and SCZ may be positively associated with thyroid cancer risk while also revealing a correlation between BD and thyroid cancer. These results may have important implications for public health policy and clinical practice. Future studies will help elucidate the biological mechanisms of these associations and potential confounders.

Predictive values of ultrasound characters associated with malignant thyroid nodules in Yaoundé: a cross-sectional study.

Introduction: most ultrasound criteria are defined in developed countries and commonly used in practice to assess the malignancy risk of thyroid nodules. This practice does not take into consideration some aspects of our context as delay of consultation and insufficient iodine intake. The objective of this study was to determine the predictive values of ultrasound characters associated with malignant thyroid nodules in our environment. Methods: we conducted a cross-sectional, prospective, and analytical study in three hospitals in Yaoundé over a six-month period in 2022. Our sample consisted of thyroid nodules with ultrasound, cytopathological, and histopathological data. The ultrasound characters and histology status of category III thyroid nodules and higher in Bethesda score were analysed in univariate and multivariate statistics to determine their predictive values. Results: eighty-nine nodules were obtained according to our inclusion criteria. The sex ratio was 0.46 and the average age of the patients was 46 years (IQR=42-59). The cancer prevalence in our sample was 22.47%. On ultrasound assessment, the characters associated to malignant histology (p<0.05) were nodules count, echogenicity, echostructure, presence or absence of microcalcifications, margins, and type of vascularization. Positive predictive values ranged from 26.15 to 57.14%, while negative predictive values ranged from 12.5 to 33.3%. Conclusion: taken alone, the ultrasound characters of suspected thyroid nodules have poor predictive values. There was a high variability in sensitivity but that was generally good (60-95%) while specificity was low. The prediction of malignant thyroid nodules is correlated with the association of at least two ultrasound criteria supported by clinical arguments.

Comparison of ultrasound risk stratification systems for pediatric thyroid nodules.

Background: There is currently insufficient data to validate adult-based US risk stratification systems (RSSs) for the identification of malignant thyroid nodules in a pediatric population. Methods: From October 2016 and May 2023, 173 thyroid nodules of pediatric patients (age ≤ 18 years) with definitive pathology results and ultrasound (US) examination within 1 month before surgery or fine-needle aspiration (FNA) biopsy in our institution were enrolled in this study. The clinical and US characteristics of these nodules were retrospectively reviewed and categorized according to the ACR-TIRADS, C-TIRADS, and ATA guidelines. The diagnostic performance of US-based FNA criteria (original and simulating) of the three guidelines in thyroid cancer detection was estimated. Results: The three RSSs had similar AUC according to the categories(0.849-0.852, all P > 0.05). When combined with the original FNA criteria of the three RSSs to manage the nodules, the FNA rate of ACR-TIRADS and C-TIRADS were significantly less than ATA guidelines (53.18% vs. 64.63%, P < 0.05, and 52.60% vs. 64.63%, P < 0.05). The missed malignancy rate (MMR) and unnecessary FNA rate (UFR) of ATA guidelines (50.00%, 35.85%) was highest among the three RSSs, followed by the C-TIRADS (37.80%, 19.57%) and the ACR-TIRADS (37.04%, 19.57%). When nodules < 1 cm with the highest category in each RSS biopsied, that is when using the simulating FNA thresholds, the MMR was reduced overall (all P < 0.001), without a change in the UFR (all P > 0.05). All the three RSSs showed a substantial improvement in accuracy and malignant detection rate (all P < 0.05). Conclusion: The ACR-TIRADS, C-TIRADS, and ATA guidelines showed high missed malignancy rates when using their original recommended FNA criteria. When nodules < 1 cm with the highest category in each RSS biopsied, the missed malignancy rate of each RSS was decreased. Decreasing the FNA thresholds for highly suspicious malignant nodules may therefore be an effective means of managing malignant thyroid nodules in pediatric patients.

Assessing and projecting the global burden of thyroid cancer, 1990-2030: Analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study.

Background: This study aims to assess the global incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of thyroid cancer between 1990 and 2030. Methods: Our study analysed Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 data from 204 countries, spanning 1990-2019. It focused on age-standardised thyroid cancer incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), using the sociodemographic index (SDI) for assessing socioeconomic levels. Generalised additive models (GAMs) projected thyroid cancer trends for 2020-2030. Results: The global burden of thyroid cancer is predicted to increase significantly from 1990 to 2030. The number of thyroid cancer incidence cases is projected to rise from 233 846.64 in 2019 to 305 078.08 by 2030, representing an approximate 30.46% increase. The ASIR (age-standardised incidence rate) is expected to continue its upward trend (estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) = 0.83). The age-standardised death rate (ASDR) for thyroid cancer is projected to decline in both genders, more notably in women (EAPC = -0.34) compared to men (EAPC = -0.17). The burden of disease escalates with advancing age, with significant regional disparities. Regions with lower SDI, particularly in South Asia, are anticipated to witness substantial increases in thyroid cancer incidence from 2020 to 2030. The overall disease burden is expected to rise, especially in countries with low to middle SDI, reflecting broader socio-economic and health care shifts. Conclusions: This study highlights significant regional and gender-specific variations in thyroid cancer, with notable increases in incidence rates, particularly in areas like South Asia. These trends suggest improvements in diagnostic capabilities and the influence of socio-economic factors. Additionally, the observed decline in mortality rates across various regions reflects advancements in thyroid cancer management. The findings underline the critical importance of regionally tailored prevention strategies, robust cancer registries, and public health initiatives to address the evolving landscape of thyroid cancer and mitigate health disparities globally.

Trends of the prevalence rate of central lymph node metastasis and multifocality in patients with low-risk papillary thyroid carcinoma after delayed thyroid surgery.

Background: Active surveillance has been an option for patients with low-risk papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC). However, whether delayed surgery leads to an increased risk of local tumor metastasis remain unclear. We sought to investigate the impact of observation time on central lymph node metastasis (CLNM) and multifocal disease in patients with low-risk PTC. Methods: Patients who were diagnosed with asymptomatic low-risk PTC, and with a pathological maximum tumor size ≤1.5 cm by were included. The patients were classified into observation group and immediate surgery group, and subgroup analyses were conducted by observation time period. The prevalence of CLNM, lymph node (LN) involved >5, multifocal PTC and bilateral multifocal PTC were considered as outcome variables. The changing trend and risk ratio of prevalence over observation time were evaluated by Mann-Kendall trend test and Logistics regression. Results: Overall, 3,427 and 1,860 patients were classified to the observation group and immediate surgery group, respectively. Trend tests showed that decreasing trends both on the prevalence of CLNM and LN involved >5 over the observation time, but the difference was not statistically significant, and the prevalence of multifocal PTC and bilateral multifocal PTC showed the significant decreasing trends. After adjustment, multivariate analysis showed no statistically significant difference between observed and immediate surgery groups in the four outcome variables. Conclusion: In patients with subclinical asymptomatic low-risk PTC, observation did not result in an increased incidence of local metastatic disease, nor did the increased surgery extent in patients with delayed surgery compared to immediate surgery. These findings can strengthen the confidence in the active surveillance management for both doctors and patients.

Correlation between socioeconomic indices and epidemiological indices of thyroid cancer from 1990 to 2019 year: a global ecologic study.

BACKGROUND: The incidence of thyroid cancer as the most common type of endocrine gland malignancy has risen more significantly than any malignancies in recent years. Estimated new cases of thyroid cancer in the United States in 2024 were 12,500 and 31,520 for men and women, respectively, and estimated deaths were 1,180 for women and 990 for men. Indices of socio-economic have been commonly used to measure the development of countries. Therefore, this study aimed to examine the correlation between indices of socioeconomic status and epidemiological indices of thyroid cancer throughout the world. In addition, this study has compared two indices of human development and a socio-demographic index. METHOD: This worldwide ecological study used data on thyroid cancer incidence, mortality, human development index (HDI), and sociodemographic index (SDI) between 1990 and 2019 from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD). We evaluated the correlation between incidence and mortality rates with socioeconomic indices by using Pearson's correlation coefficient. Furthermore, for the first time, the generalized additive model (GAM) was employed for modeling. The statistical software R, version 4.2.2, was used to conduct all statistical analyses. RESULTS: The correlation between the incidence of thyroid cancer and the HDI was significant and positive (r = 0.47, p-value < 0.001). While the correlation between thyroid cancer mortality and HDI was not statistically significant (r = 0.01, p-value = 0.076). Besides, the incidence of thyroid cancer was significantly positively correlated with SDI (r = 0.48, p-value < 0.001). The multiple GAM showed that for one unit increase in HDI, the risk of thyroid cancer was increased by 2.1 times (RR = 2.1, 95%CI = 2.04 to 2.19), and for one unit increase in SDI, the risk of thyroid cancer was shown to increase by 2.2 times. (RR = 2.2, 95%CI = 2.19 to 2.35). CONCLUSION: It has been evident that countries with higher incidence of thyroid cancer display higher socioeconomic indices. While, countries with higher socioeconomic indices, report lower mortality rates. However, based on the modeling results, it can be concluded that the SDI is slightly more useful in this regard. Therefore, examining the epidemiological indices of thyroid cancer by socio-economic indices can be useful to reflect a clear image of the distribution of this cancer in each country, and can be used for planning cancer prevention strategies.

Development and validation of prediction models for papillary thyroid cancer structural recurrence using machine learning approaches.

BACKGROUND: Although papillary thyroid cancer (PTC) patients are known to have an excellent prognosis, up to 30% of patients experience disease recurrence after initial treatment. Accurately predicting disease prognosis remains a challenge given that the predictive value of several predictors remains controversial. Thus, we investigated whether machine learning (ML) approaches based on comprehensive predictors can predict the risk of structural recurrence for PTC patients. METHODS: A total of 2244 patients treated with thyroid surgery and radioiodine were included. Twenty-nine perioperative variables consisting of four dimensions (demographic characteristics and comorbidities, tumor-related variables, lymph node (LN)-related variables, and metabolic and inflammatory markers) were analyzed. We applied five ML algorithms-logistic regression (LR), support vector machine (SVM), extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), random forest (RF), and neural network (NN)-to develop the models. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUC-ROC) curve, calibration curve, and variable importance were used to evaluate the models' performance. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 45.5 months, 179 patients (8.0%) experienced structural recurrence. The non-stimulated thyroglobulin, LN dissection, number of LNs dissected, lymph node metastasis ratio, N stage, comorbidity of hypertension, comorbidity of diabetes, body mass index, and low-density lipoprotein were used to develop the models. All models showed a greater AUC (AUC = 0.738 to 0.767) than did the ATA risk stratification (AUC = 0.620, DeLong test: P < 0.01). The SVM, XGBoost, and RF model showed greater sensitivity (0.568, 0.595, 0.676), specificity (0.903, 0.857, 0.784), accuracy (0.875, 0.835, 0.775), positive predictive value (PPV) (0.344, 0.272, 0.219), negative predictive value (NPV) (0.959, 0.959, 0.964), and F1 score (0.429, 0.373, 0.331) than did the ATA risk stratification (sensitivity = 0.432, specificity = 0.770, accuracy = 0.742, PPV = 0.144, NPV = 0.938, F1 score = 0.216). The RF model had generally consistent calibration compared with the other models. The Tg and the LNR were the top 2 important variables in all the models, the N stage was the top 5 important variables in all the models. CONCLUSIONS: The RF model achieved the expected prediction performance with generally good discrimination, calibration and interpretability in this study. This study sheds light on the potential of ML approaches for improving the accuracy of risk stratification for PTC patients. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Retrospectively registered at www.chictr.org.cn (trial registration number: ChiCTR2300075574, date of registration: 2023-09-08).

BRAF and RET polymorphism association with thyroid cancer risk, a preliminary study from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa population.

BACKGROUND: Thyroid cancer, originating in the neck's thyroid gland, encompasses various types. Genetic mutations, particularly in BRAF and RET genes are crucial in its development. This study investigates the association between BRAF (rs113488022) and RET (rs77709286) polymorphisms and thyroid cancer risk in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) population. METHODS: Blood samples from 100 thyroid cancer patients and 100 healthy controls were genotyped using ARMS-PCR followed by gel electrophoresis and statistical analysis. RESULTS: Analysis revealed a significant association between the minor allele T of BRAF (rs113488022) and thyroid cancer risk (P = 0.0001). Both genotypes of BRAF (rs113488022) showed significant associations with thyroid cancer risk (AT; P = 0.0012 and TT; P = 0.045). Conversely, the minor allele G of RET (rs77709286) exhibited a non-significant association with thyroid cancer risk (P = 0.2614), and neither genotype showed significant associations (CG; P = 0.317, GG; P = 0.651). Demographic and clinical parameters analysis using SPSS showed a non-significant association between BRAF and RET variants and age group (P = 0.878 and P = 0.536), gender (P = 0.587 and P = 0.21), tumor size (P = 0.796 and P = 0.765), or tumor localization (P = 0.689 and P = 0.727). CONCLUSION: In conclusion, this study emphasizes the significant association between BRAF polymorphism and thyroid cancer risk, while RET polymorphism showed a less pronounced impact. Further validation using larger and specific datasets is essential to establish conclusive results.