Prognostic prediction of patients having classical papillary thyroid carcinoma with a 4 mRNA-based risk model.

The dysregulation of protein-coding genes involved in various biological functions is closely associated with the progression of thyroid cancer. This study aimed to investigate the effects of dysregulated gene expressions on the prognosis of classical papillary thyroid carcinoma (cPTC). Using expression profiling datasets from the Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) database, we performed differential expression analysis to identify differentially expressed genes (DEGs). Cox regression and Kaplan-Meier analysis were used to identify DEGs, which were used to construct a risk model to predict the prognosis of cPTC patients. Functional enrichment analysis unveiled the potential significance of co-expressed protein-encoding genes in tumors. We identified 4 DEGs (SALL3, PPBP, MYH1, and SYNDIG1), which were used to construct a risk model to predict the prognosis of cPTC patients. These 4 genes were independent of clinical parameters and could be functional in cPTC carcinogenesis. Furthermore, PPBP exhibited a strong correlation with poorer overall survival (OS) in the advanced stage of the disease. This study suggests that the 4-gene signature could be an independent prognostic biomarker to improve prognosis prediction in cPTC patients older than 46.

A Competing Risk Nomogram for Prediction of Prognosis in Patients With Primary Squamous Cell Thyroid Carcinoma.

Objective: Primary squamous cell thyroid carcinoma (PSCTC) is an extremely rare carcinoma, accounting for less than 1% of all thyroid carcinomas. However, the factors contributing to PSCTC outcomes remain unclear. This study aimed to identify the prognostic factors and develop a prognostic predictive model for patients with PSCTC. Methods: The analysis included patients diagnosed with thyroid carcinoma between 1975 and 2016 from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. Prognostic differences among the 5 pathological types of thyroid carcinomas were analyzed. To determine prognostic factors in PSCTC patients, the Cox regression model and Fine-Gray competing risk model were utilized. Based on the Fine-Gray competing risk model, a nomogram was established for predicting the prognosis of patients with PSCTC. Results: A total of 198,757 thyroid carcinoma patients, including 218 PSCTC patients, were identified. We found that PSCTC and anaplastic thyroid cancer had the worst prognosis among the 5 pathological types of thyroid carcinoma (P < .001). According to univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses, age (71-95 years) was an independent risk factor for poorer overall survival and disease-specific survival in PSCTC patients. Using Fine-Gray regression analysis, the total number of in situ/malignant tumors for patient (Number 1) (≥2) was identified as an independent protective factor for prognosis of PSCTC. The area under the curve, the concordance index (C-index), calibration curves and decision curve analysis revealed that the nomogram was capable of predicting the prognosis of PSCTC patients accurately. Conclusion: The competing risk nomogram is highly accurate in predicting prognosis for patients with PSCTC, which may help clinicians to optimize individualized treatment decisions.

Conformal thyroidectomy is a feasible option in papillary thyroid microcarcinoma: a retrospective cohort study with 10-year follow-up results.

BACKGROUND: In recent years, there has been an increasing prevalence of patients with papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC) without lymph node involvement in medical centers worldwide. For patients who are unable to undergo active surveillance (AS) and are afraid of postoperative complications, conformal thyroidectomy may be a suitable option to ensure both preservation of function and complete removal of the tumor. METHODS: The patients in the cohort during 2010 to 2015 were retrospectively enrolled strictly following the inclusion and exclusion criteria. The observation and control groups were defined based on the surgical approach, with patients in the observation group undergoing conformal thyroidectomy and patients in the control group undergoing lobectomy. Event-free survival (EFS), the interval from initial surgery to the detection of recurrent or metastatic disease, was defined as the primary observation endpoint. RESULTS: A total of 319 patients were included in the study, with 124 patients undergoing conformal thyroidectomy and 195 patients undergoing lobectomy. When compared to lobectomy, conformal thyroidectomy demonstrated reduced hospital stays, shorter operative times, and lower rates of vocal cord paralysis and hypoparathyroidism. Furthermore, the mean bleeding volume during the operation and the rate of permanent hypothyroidism were also lower in the conformal thyroidectomy group than in the lobectomy group. However, there was no statistically significant difference observed in the 5- and 10-year EFS between the two groups. CONCLUSIONS: Conformal thyroidectomy had advantages in perioperative management and short-term complication rates, with an EFS that was not inferior to that of lobectomy. Thus, conformal thyroidectomy is a feasible option for low-risk PTMC patients.

Time Kinetics and prognosis roles of calcitonin after surgery for medullary thyroid carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: Medullary thyroid carcinoma (MTC) is a malignant tumor with low incidence. Currently, most studies have focused on the prognostic risk factors of MTC, whatever, time kinetic and risk factors related to calcitonin normalization (CN) and biochemical persistence/recurrence (BP) are yet to be elucidated. METHODS: A retrospective study was conducted for 190 MTC patients. Risk factors related to calcitonin normalization (CN) and biochemical persistence/recurrence (BP) were analyzed. The predictors of calcitonin normalization time (CNT) and biochemical persistent/recurrent time (BPT) were identified. Further, the prognostic roles of CNT and BPT were also demonstrated. RESULTS: The 5- and 10-year DFS were 86.7% and 70.2%, respectively. The 5- and 10-year OS were 97.6% and 78.8%, respectively. CN was achieved in 120 (63.2%) patients, whereas BP was presented in 76 (40.0%) patients at the last follow up. After curative surgery, 39 (32.5%) and 106 (88.3%) patients achieved CN within 1 week and 1 month. All patients who failed to achieve CN turned to BP over time and 32/70 of them developed structural recurrence. The median time of CNT and BPT was 1 month (1 day to 84 months) and 6 month (3 day to 63months), respectively. LNR > 0.23 and male gender were independent predictors for CN and BP. LNR > 0.23 (Hazard ratio (HR), 0.24; 95% CI,0.13-0.46; P < 0.01) and male gender (HR, 0.65; 95% CI, 0.42-0.99; P = 0.045) were independent predictors for longer CNT. LNR > 0.23 (HR,5.10; 95% CI,2.15-12.11; P < 0.01) was still the strongest independent predictor followed by preoperative serum Ctn > 1400ng/L (HR,2.34; 95% CI,1.29-4.25; P = 0.005) for shorter BPT. In survival analysis, primary tumor size > 2 cm (HR, 5.81; 95% CI,2.20-15.38; P < 0.01), CNT > 1 month (HR, 5.69; 95% CI, 1.17-27.61; P = 0.031) and multifocality (HR, 3.10; 95% CI, 1.45-6.65; P = 0.004) were independent predictor of DFS. CONCLUSION: Early changes of Ctn after curative surgery can predict the long-term risks of biochemical and structural recurrence, which provide a useful real-time prognostic information. LNR significantly affect the time kinetic of biochemical prognosis. Tumor burden and CNT play a crucial role in MTC survival, the intensity of follow-up must be tailored accordingly.

Trends and projections of the global burden of thyroid cancer from 1990 to 2030.

Background: We aimed to explore the burden of thyroid cancer worldwide from 1990 to 2019 and to project its future trends from 2020 to 2030. Methods: Based on annual data on thyroid cancer cases from 1990 to 2019 available in the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database, we calculated the age-standardised incidence, death, and disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rates for thyroid cancer. We used the estimated annual percentage change (EPAC) to quantify the temporal trends in these age-standardised rates from 1990 to 2019 and applied generalised additive models to project the disease burden from 2020 to 2030. Results: The global age-standardised incidence rate (ASIR) of thyroid cancer increased from 1990 to 2019, with a higher overall disease burden in women than in men at both study time points. The male-to-female ratios for the ASIR increased from 0.41 in 1990 to 0.51 in 2019, while the ratio for the age-standardised death rate (ASDR) increased from 0.60 to 0.82. The models predicted the United Arab Emirates would have the fastest rising trend in both the ASIR (estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC) = 4.19) and age-standardised DALY rate (EAPC = 4.36) in 2020-30, while Saint Kitts and Nevis will have the fastest rising trend in the ASDR (EAPC = 2.29). Meanwhile, the growth trends for the ASDR and age-standardised DALY rate are projected to increase across countries in this period. A correlation analysis of the global burden of thyroid cancer between 1990-2019 and 2020-30 showed a significant positive correlation between the increase in the ASIR and socio-demographic index (SDI) in low-SDI and low-middle-SDI countries. Conclusions: The global burden of thyroid cancer is increasing, especially in the female population and in low-middle-SDI regions, underscoring a need to target them for effective prevention, diagnosis, and treatment.

Radioactive iodine refractoriness in Middle Eastern differentiated thyroid cancer: clinical outcome and risk factor analysis.

Background: Radioactive iodine refractory differentiated thyroid cancer (RAIR-DTC) has received increasing attention due to its poor prognosis. However, outcomes may vary among patients with RAIR-DTC. The role of clinico-pathological and molecular prognostic factors in survival remains controversial, resulting in difficulty in selecting patients for new targeted therapies. We assessed mortality rate and DTC-specific survival in Middle Eastern RAIR-DTC to identify prognostic factors associated with survival. Methods: This single center, retrospective study enrolled 268 patients with RAIR-DTC. Mortality rate and DTC-specific survival were analyzed to identify prognostic factors related to survival. Univariate and multivariate analysis were performed using Cox proportional hazards model. Results: Of the 268 cases of RAIR-DTC, 40.3% (108/268) had absent 131I uptake (either on diagnostic or post-therapy whole body scan), 15.3% (41/268) had progressive disease (PD) despite 131I, 7.5% (20/268) had persistent disease despite cumulative activity of I131 of >600 mCi and 36.9% (n=99/268) developed distant metastasis. On multivariate analysis, age (more than 45 years), presence of metastatic disease and tumors harboring telomerase reverse transcriptase (TERT) promoter mutations were independent prognostic factors for poor DTC-specific survival. Subjects were divided into 3 groups according to the number of risk factors; low risk (no risk factors); intermediate (≤ 2 risk factors); and high risk (all the 3 risk factors). Ten-year DTC-specific survival rates in low, intermediate and high-risk groups were 100.0%, 92.9% and 53.6%, respectively. Conclusions: The contribution of age greater than 45 years to RAIR-DTC mortality is impactful. Older age, presence of distant metastasis and TERT mutations could be used as early predictors of RAIR-DTC cases. The identification of prognostic factors for poor survival in RAIR-DTC may improve the selection of patients for more personalized surveillance and therapeutic modalities.

Risk of second primary thyroid cancer in cancer survivors.

A risk factor for thyroid cancer (TC) may be a history of former cancer and cancer therapy. The precise risk of a second primary thyroid carcinoma has not yet been revealed. In this study, we evaluated standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) of second primary thyroid cancer (SPTC) with consideration of different conditions and further analyzed the clinicopathological characteristics and survival of these patients. The cohort was selected from the US Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program between 1975 and 2019. The standardized incidence ratios, morbidity risk, clinicopathological features, and survival of second primary thyroid carcinoma were analyzed. Propensity score matching (PSM) was used to balance covariates. Kaplan-Meier method was performed to assess the survival outcomes. Overall, 7066 patients with SPTC and 83,113 patients with primary TC were identified. The SIR of TC in tumor patients was 1.51/10,000, statistically higher than the natural population (0.94/10,000, P < 0.05). The most significant tumors contributing to the increased SIRs of SPTC were acute lymphocytic leukemia (3.49/10,000), Hodgkin's lymphoma-nodal (3.29/10,000), salivary gland cancer (3.23/10,000), and kidney and renal pelvis cancer (3.05/10,000). The incidence of TC increased significantly in tumor patients who received radiotherapy/chemotherapy before age 35. The age at diagnosis of the SPTC was much older than the primary TC (64.01 vs. 49.55 years, p < 0.001). The SPTC had a higher percentage of histological grades 3/4 (23.14% vs. 15.19%, p < 0.001). Survival analyses demonstrated a worse prognosis for the SPTC group compared to the primary TC group. But after PSM, the survival outcomes of the two groups tended to be equivalent (P = 0.584). The SIRs of TC are higher in tumor patients. The most significant factors contributing to the increased risk of SPTC were some specific former tumors and acceptance of radiotherapy/ chemotherapy before age 35. There was no significant difference in survival between SPTC and primary TC.

Update on Pediatric Thyroid Cancer Incidence and Mortality Trends in the United States, 2000-2018.

Thyroid cancer is the most common endocrine malignancy in the pediatric population. A recent study has revealed a recent decline in overall US thyroid cancer incidence rates. The aim of this study is to assess whether there has been a corresponding decline in incidence rates in the pediatric population. We used the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database to analyze the pediatric thyroid cancer incidence rate. The results demonstrate that the incidence rate of pediatric thyroid cancer continued to increase from 2000 to 2018. Future studies are needed to understand how recent changes in guidelines are affecting incidence rates.

Geographic disparities in thyroid cancer staging at presentation: Insights from an Australian context.

BACKGROUND: Thyroid cancer diagnoses have increased over recent decades at a rate much higher than that of any other cancer in Australia. Rural patients are known to have reduced access to healthcare and may have different thyroid cancer presentation rates. This study examined the relationship between thyroid cancer diagnosis and patient rurality. METHODS: Data from the Australia and New Zealand Thyroid Cancer Registry from 2017 to 2022 were analyzed, stratifying patient postcodes into rurality groups using the Australian Statistical Geography Standard. The American Thyroid Association (ATA) guidelines were used to stratify risk categories and management to compare treatment adequacy between the groups. Statistical analysis assessed demographic, clinical, and management differences. RESULTS: Among 1766 patients, 70.6% were metropolitan (metro) and 29.4% were non-metropolitan (non-metro). Non-metro patients were older at diagnosis (median 56 vs. 50 years, p < 0.001), presented more frequently with T stage greater than 1 (stage 2-4, 41.9% vs. 34.8%, and p = 0.005), AJCC stage greater than 1 (stage 2-4, 18.5% vs. 14.6%, and p = 0.019), and cancers larger than 4 cm (14.3% vs. 9.9%, p = 0.005). No significant differences in treatment adequacy were observed between the groups for ATA low-risk cancers. CONCLUSIONS: Non-metropolitan patients in the registry present with more advanced thyroid cancer, possibly due to differences in healthcare access. Further research should assess long-term survival outcomes and influencing factors. Understanding the impact on patient outcomes and addressing healthcare access barriers can optimize thyroid cancer care across geographic regions in Australia.

Prognostic value of postoperative anti-thyroglobulin antibody in patients with differentiated thyroid cancer.

Purpose: Postoperative thyroglobulin (Tg) generally serves as a biomarker to monitor the recurrence or persistence of differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC), whereas it constrains to interference from anti-thyroglobulin antibody (TgAb). This study aimed to determine the value of postoperative TgAb as a surrogate for monitoring tumor status in DTCs with positive TgAb after successful radioactive iodine (RAI) remnant ablation. Methods: We retrospectively enrolled DTC patients with positive (≥40 IU/mL, Roche) postoperative TgAb measurements. An index of TgAb change (ΔTgAb) was defined to describe the TgAb decrease rate. DTC status was defined as either no evidence of disease (NED) or persistent/recurrent disease (PRD). Univariate and multivariate binary logistic analyses were used to identify the independent risk factors of PRD. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were performed to determine the optimal cutoff values of each risk factor, and DeLong's test was conducted to compare their predictive powers. Kaplan-Meier curves were used to assess the impact of different TgAb trends in the first year on progression-free survival. Results: Of the 232 patients enrolled, the median diagnosis age was 34 years (range, 18-62 years), with a male-to-female ratio of 1:4.66 (41/191). Among them, after a median follow-up of 44 months (range, 4-128 months),183 (78.87%) patients were evaluated as NED, while the other 49 (21.12%) had either persistent (n = 25) or recurrent disease (n = 24). Multivariate regression showed that ΔTgAb (P < 0.001) and lymph node metastasis (LNM) rate (P = 0.009) were independently relevant to the presence of PRD, with optimal cutoff values of 47.0% and 35.1%, respectively. It is important to note that there is a high negative predictive value (96.93%) of ΔTgAb with the cutoff of 47.0%. DeLong's test showed that ΔTgAb alone and the combination of ΔTgAb and LNM rate were significantly greater than the isolated LNM rate (both P < 0.001) in predicting NED, while there was no statistical difference of the predictive power between ΔTgAb and the combination (P = 0.203). Additionally, patients with ΔTgAb >47.0% had longer progression-free survival than those with ΔTgAb ≤47.0% (not reached vs. 50 months, P < 0.001), and those with ΔTgAb >47.0% or negative conversion within the first year after RAI ablation had longer progression-free survival. Conclusion: Our study suggested that ΔTgAb could serve as a valuable indicator of disease status in DTC patients with positive TgAb. A ΔTgAb of >47.0% is conducive to identify those with NED and may help to obviate their overtreatment. The decrease rate and negative conversion of TgAb in the first year were good predictors of disease-free survival in patients.

Natural History and Prognostic Model of Untreated Papillary Thyroid Cancer: A SEER Database Analysis.

PURPOSE: This investigation leveraged the SEER database to delve into the progression patterns of PTC when left untreated. Furthermore, it aimed to devise and authenticate a nomogram for prognosis prediction for such patients. METHODS: We extracted data from the SEER database, focusing on PTC-diagnosed individuals from 2004-2020. To discern disease progression intervals, median survival times across stages were gauged, and the disease progression time was estimated by subtracting the median survival time of a more severe stage from its preceding stage. Prognostic determinants in the training set were pinpointed using both univariate and multivariate Cox regression. Using these determinants, a prognostic nomogram was crafted. RESULTS: In untreated PTC patients, those in stages I and II had a favorable prognosis, with 10-year overall survival rates of 86.34% and 66.03%, respectively. Patients in stages III and IV had a relatively poorer prognosis. The median survival time of stage III, stage IVA, stage IVB and stage IVC patients was 108months, 43 months, 20 months and 8 months, respectively. The deduced progression intervals from stages III-IVC were 65, 23, and 12 months. In the training set, age, tumor stage, gender, and marital status were identified as independent risk factors influencing the prognosis of untreated PTC, and a nomogram was constructed using these variables. CONCLUSION: In the absence of treatment intervention, early-stage PTC progressed slowly with an overall favorable prognosis. However, in mid to advanced-stage PTC, as tumor stage increased, disease progression accelerated, and prognosis gradually worsened. Age, tumor stage, marital status, and gender were independent risk factors influencing the prognosis of untreated PTC, and the nomogram based on these factors demonstrated good prognostic capability.

PurposeThis investigation leveraged the SEER database to delve into the progression patterns of PTC when left untreated. Furthermore, it aimed to devise and authenticate a nomogram for prognosis prediction for such patients.MethodsWe extracted data from the SEER database, focusing on PTC-diagnosed individuals from 2004-2020. To discern disease progression intervals, median survival times across stages were gauged, and the disease progression time was estimated by subtracting the median survival time of a more severe stage from its preceding stage. Prognostic determinants in the training set were pinpointed using both univariate and multivariate Cox regression. Using these determinants, a prognostic nomogram was crafted.ResultsIn untreated PTC patients, those in stages I and II had a favorable prognosis, with ten-year overall survival rates of 86.34% and 66.03%, respectively. Patients in stages III and IV had a relatively poorer prognosis. The median survival time of stage III, stage IVA, stage IVB and stage IVC patients was 108months, 43 months, 20 months and 8 months, respectively. The deduced progression intervals from stages III-IVC were 65, 23, and 12 months. In the training set, age, tumor stage, gender, and marital status were identified as independent risk factors influencing the prognosis of untreated PTC, and a nomogram was constructed using these variables.ConclusionIn the absence of treatment intervention, early-stage PTC progressed slowly with an overall favorable prognosis. However, in mid to advanced-stage PTC, as tumor stage increased, disease progression accelerated, and prognosis gradually worsened. Age, tumor stage, marital status, and gender were independent risk factors influencing the prognosis of untreated PTC, and the nomogram based on these factors demonstrated good prognostic capability.

Identification and validation of an anoikis-related genes signature for prognostic implication in papillary thyroid cancer.

Thyroid cancer, notably papillary thyroid cancer (PTC), is a global health concern with increasing incidence. Anoikis, a regulator of programmed cell death, is pivotal in normal physiology and, when dysregulated, can drive cancer progression and metastasis. This study explored the impact of anoikis on PTC prognosis. Analyzing data from GEO, TCGA, and GeneCards, we identified a prognostic signature consisting of six anoikis-related genes (ARGs): EZH2, PRKCQ, CD36, INHBB, TDGF1, and MMP9. This signature independently predicted patient outcomes, with high-risk scores associated with worse prognoses. A robust predictive ability was confirmed via ROC analysis, and a nomogram achieved a C-index of 0.712. Differences in immune infiltration levels were observed between high- and low-risk groups. Importantly, the high-risk group displayed reduced drug sensitivity and poor responses to immunotherapy. This research provides insights into anoikis in PTC, offering a novel ARG signature for predicting patient prognosis and guiding personalized treatment strategies.

Prognostic Roles of Inflammatory Biomarkers in Radioiodine-Refractory Thyroid Cancer Treated with Lenvatinib.

BACKGRUOUND: Inflammatory biomarkers, such as the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio (LMR), and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), serve as valuable prognostic indicators in various cancers. This multicenter, retrospective cohort study assessed the treatment outcomes of lenvatinib in 71 patients with radioactive iodine (RAI)-refractory thyroid cancer, considering the baseline inflammatory biomarkers. METHODS: This study retrospectively included patients from five tertiary hospitals in Korea whose complete blood counts were available before lenvatinib treatment. Progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) were evaluated based on the median value of inflammatory biomarkers. RESULTS: No significant differences in baseline characteristics were observed among patients grouped according to the inflammatory biomarkers, except for older patients with a higher-than-median NLR (≥2) compared to their counterparts with a lower NLR (P= 0.01). Patients with a higher-than-median NLR had significantly shorter PFS (P=0.02) and OS (P=0.017) than those with a lower NLR. In multivariate analysis, a higher-than-median NLR was significantly associated with poor OS (hazard ratio, 3.0; 95% confidence interval, 1.24 to 7.29; P=0.015). However, neither the LMR nor the PLR was associated with PFS. A higher-than-median LMR (≥3.9) was significantly associated with prolonged OS compared to a lower LMR (P=0.036). In contrast, a higher-than-median PLR (≥142.1) was associated with shorter OS compared to a lower PLR (P=0.039). CONCLUSION: Baseline inflammatory biomarkers can serve as predictive indicators of PFS and OS in patients with RAI-refractory thyroid cancer treated with lenvatinib.

Patterns in the Reporting of Aggressive Histologic Subtypes in Papillary Thyroid Cancer.

INTRODUCTION: The tall cell, columnar, and diffuse sclerosing subtypes are aggressive histologic subtypes of papillary thyroid cancer (PTC) with increasing incidence, yet there is a wide variation in reporting. We aimed to identify and compare factors associated with the reporting of these aggressive subtypes (aPTC) to classic PTC (cPTC) and secondarily identify differences in outcomes. METHODS: The National Cancer Database was utilized to identify cPTC and aPTC from 2004 to 2017. Patient and facility demographics and clinicopathologic variables were analyzed. Independent predictors of aPTC reporting were identified and a survival analysis was performed. RESULTS: The majority of aPTC (67%) were reported by academic facilities. Compared to academic facilities, all other facility types were 1.4-2.0 times less likely to report aPTC (P < 0.05). Regional variation in reporting was noted, with more cases reported in the Middle Atlantic, despite there being more total facilities in the South Atlantic and East North Central regions. Compared to the Middle Atlantic, all other regions were 1.4-5 times less likely to report aPTC (P < 0.001). Patient characteristics including race and income were not associated with aPTC reporting. Compared to cPTC, aPTC had higher rates of aggressive features and worse 5-y overall survival (90.5% versus 94.5%, log rank P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Aggressive subtypes of PTC are associated with worse outcomes. Academic and other facilities in the Middle Atlantic were more likely to report aPTC. This suggests the need for further evaluation of environmental or geographic factors versus a need for increased awareness and more accurate diagnosis of these subtypes.

Prognostic factors and treatment responses among patients with gross residual disease in differentiated thyroid cancer.

BACKGROUND: Various postoperative staging systems were developed to assess the outcome of differentiated thyroid cancer from initial risk after surgery to dynamic changing prognosis during follow-up. The objective of our retrospective cohort study was to identify risk factors contributing to macroscopic positive surgical margin (R2 resection) and parameters in discriminating the treatment responses and prognosis among R2 patients. METHODS: In total, 242 differentiated thyroid cancer patients with extrathyroidal extension who underwent a thyroidectomy at Kaohsiung Chang Gung Memorial Hospital between January 2013 and July 2018, were included. The patients were grouped according to the presence or absence of gross residual disease (R2). The R2 patients were further classified into two categories according to their treatment response into excellent and nonexcellent groups. The parameters and treatment outcomes were compared between these groups. RESULTS: The mean follow-up time was 45.3 months. Two hundred seven (85.5%) patients had either surgery-free or microscopic margins (R0/R1), while 35 (14.5%) had R2 resection. In the R2 group (n = 35), 15 (42.9%) patients achieved an excellent response, while 20 (57.1%) achieved a nonexcellent response. Statistically significant differences were observed in the extent of neck dissection, TSH-Tg level, post-RAI Tg level, nodal status, and recurrence between the two groups. The Kaplan-Meier curves for 5-year local and distant recurrence-free survival of R0/R1 versus R2 patients were 90.0% versus 66.3%, and 98.4% versus 90.7%, respectively ( p < 0.001). Among the R2 patients, the excellent responders had a higher local recurrence-free survival than nonexcellent responders (93.3% vs. 45.1%, p = 0.008). CONCLUSION: There are significant disparities in recurrence-free survival among R2 patients with different treatment responses. The nodal status of papillary thyroid cancer and thyroglobulin level after thyroidectomy and RAI were factors contributing to difference in their treatment responses.

Development and validation of a nomogram to predict overall survival in patients with redefined anaplastic thyroid carcinoma based on the SEER database.

BACKGROUND: According to the latest classification of thyroid tumors released by the WHO in 2022, primary squamous cell carcinoma of the thyroid (PSCCTh) is classified as anaplastic thyroid carcinoma (ATC). The objective of this study was to determine the differences in characteristics between ATC and PSCCTh and develop a nomogram to predict overall survival patients with the redefined anaplastic thyroid carcinoma (rATC). METHODS: Patients diagnosed with ATC and PSCCTh between 2000 and 2018 from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database were enrolled and randomly divided into a training cohort and a validation cohort with a ratio of 7:3. Overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method and compared using log-rank tests. The univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analyses were used to determine independent prognostic factors of rATC patients. We then developed and validated nomograms to predict the 3-, 6- and 12-month OS of rATC and the results were evaluated by C-index and calibration curves. RESULTS: After application of the inclusion and exclusion criteria, a total of 1338 ATC and 127 PSCCTh patients were included in the study. Further, OS and CSS of patients with PSCCTh were better than that of patients with ATC. Prognostic factors were not identical for the two cancers. Multivariate Cox model analysis indicated that age, tumor size, metastasis, surgery, radiotherapy, chemotherapy are independent prognostic factors for CSS in patients with ATC; while for patients with PSCCTh, the corresponding factors are age, and surgery. We selected six survival predictors (age, tumor size, metastasis, surgery, radiation, and, chemotherapy) for nomogram construction. The C-indexes in the training and validation cohort were 0.740 and 0.778, respectively, reflecting the good discrimination ability of the model. The calibration curves also showed good consistency in the probability of 3-, 6-, and 12-month OS between the actual observation and the nomogram prediction. CONCLUSION: We constructed a nomogram to provide a convenient and reliable tool for predicting OS in rATC patients. Prognostic factors influencing CSS were not identical in patients with ATC and PSCCTh. These findings indicate that different clinical treatment and management plans are required for patients with these two types of thyroid cancer.

Development and Validation of a Nomogram for Prognosis Prediction in Patients with Synchronous Primary Thyroid and Breast Cancer Based on SEER Database.

This study aimed to develop prognostic prediction models for patients diagnosed with synchronous thyroid and breast cancer (TBC). Utilizing the SEER database, key predictive factors were identified, including T stage of thyroid cancer, T stage of breast cancer, M stage of breast cancer, patient age, thyroid cancer surgery type, and isotope therapy. A nomogram predicting 5-year and 10-year survival rates was constructed and validated, exhibiting strong performance (C-statistic: 0.79 in the development cohort (95% CI: 0.74-0.84), and 0.82 in the validation cohort (95% CI: 0.77-0.89)). The area under the Receiver Operator Characteristic (ROC) curve ranged from 0.798 to 0.883 for both cohorts. Calibration and decision curve analyses further affirmed the model's clinical utility. Stratifying patients into high-risk and low-risk groups using the nomogram revealed significant differences in survival rates (P < 0.0001). The successful development and validation of this nomogram for predicting 5-year and 10-year survival rates in patients with synchronous TBC hold promise for similar patient populations, contributing significantly to cancer research.

External beam radiation therapy for recurrent or residual thyroid cancer: What is the best treatment time and the best candidate for long-term local disease control?

INTRODUCTION: Cervical disease control might be challenging in advanced thyroid cancer (DTC). Indications for cervical external beam radiation therapy (EBRT) are controversial. PURPOSE: To identify clinical and molecular factors associated with control of cervical disease with EBRT. METHODS: Retrospective evaluation and molecular analysis of the primary tumor DTC patients who underwent cervical EBRT between 1995 and 2022 was performed. RESULTS: Eighty adults, median age of 61 years, were included. T4 disease was present in 43.7%, lymph node involvement in 42.5%, and distant metastasis in 47.5%. Those with cervical progression were older (62.5 vs. 57.3, p = 0.04) with more nodes affected (12.1 vs. 2.8, p = 0.04) and had EBRT performed later following surgery (76.6 vs. 64 months, p = 0.05). EBRT associated with multikinase inhibitors showed longer overall survival than EBRT alone (64.3 vs. 37.9, p = 0.018) and better local disease control. Performing EBRT before radioiodine (RAI) was associated with longer cervical progression-free survival (CPFS) than was RAI before (67.5 vs. 34.5, p < 0.01). EBRT ≥2 years after surgery was associated with worse CPFS (4.9 vs. 34, p = 0.04). The most common molecular alterations were ERBB2, BRAF, FAT1, RET and ROS1 and TERT mutation was predictive of worse disease control after EBRT (p = 0.04). CONCLUSION: Younger patients, with fewer affected nodes and treated earlier after surgery had better cervical disease control. Combination of EBRT with MKI improved OS. TERT mutation might indicate worse responders to EBRT; however, further studies are necessary to clarify the role of molecular testing in selecting candidates for cervical EBRT.

Young and resilient: Unraveling papillary thyroid cancer outcomes in males under 40.

BACKGROUND: While males present with more adverse clinicopathologic features in papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC), younger age has previously been shown to be a favorable prognostic factor. We examined the combined effect of male sex and young age on PTC outcomes. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective analysis of a prospectively maintained database of thyroid cancer surgery patients (2000-2020) at a single quaternary care institution. We included papillary thyroid carcinoma cases and excluded those with prior cancer-related thyroid surgery. We examined demographics, cancer stage, surgical outcomes, and complications by age and sex, analyzing groups below and above the age of 40 years. RESULTS: A total of 680 patients with PTC were included. Females constituted 68% (age ≥40 years: 44% and <40 years: 24%) and males 32% (≥40 years: 24% and <40 years: 8%). A significant difference (p < 0.001) of N1 disease distribution was found between the groups. N1a metastasis was greater in patients younger than 40 regardless of sex ((M < 40 (15%), F < 40 (15%), M ≥ 40 (12%), and F ≥ 40 (9%)). While, M < 40 had greater N1b metastasis (36%) than all other groups (M ≥ 40 (28%), F < 40 (22%), and F ≥ 40 (10%)). There was no significant difference in the distribution of T stages between groups. Groups showed no differences in 30-day outcomes, recurrence at 1 year, reoperation, mortality, nerve injury, or hypocalcemia. CONCLUSIONS: Young males with PTC face increased occurrence of nodal metastasis yet experience similar recurrence rates as their female and older counterparts. Subgroup analysis underscores the predictive role of sex and age in advanced PTC cases.

Rural-Urban Disparities in the Continuum of Thyroid Cancer Care: Analysis of 92,794 Cases.

Objective: Rurality is associated with higher incidence and higher disease-specific mortality for most cancers. Outcomes for rural and ultrarural ("frontier") patients with thyroid cancer are poorly understood. This study aimed to identify actionable deficits in thyroid cancer outcomes for rural patients. Methods: We queried linked California Cancer Registry and California Office of Statewide Health Planning and Development databases for patients diagnosed with thyroid cancer (1999-2017). We analyzed time from disease stage at diagnosis, time from diagnosis to surgery, receipt of appropriate radioactive iodine ablation, surveillance status, and overall and disease-specific mortality for urban, rural, and frontier patients. Cox and logistic regression models controlled for clinical and demographic covariates a stepwise manner. All incidence figures are expressed as a proportion of newly diagnosed cases. Results: Our cohort comprised 92,794 subjects: (65,475 women [70.6%]; mean age 50.0 years). Compared to urban patients, rural and frontier patients were more likely to be American Indian, White, uninsured, and from lower quintiles of socioeconomic status (p < 0.01). Distant disease at diagnosis was more common in rural (56.0 vs. 50.4 cases per 1000 new cases, p < 0.01) and frontier patients (80.9 vs. 50.4 per 1000, p < 0.01) compared to urban patients. The incidence of medullary thyroid cancer was greater in rural patients (17.9 vs. 13.6 cases per 1000, p < 0.01) and frontier patients (31.0 vs. 13.6 per 1000, p < 0.01) compared to urban patients. The incidence of anaplastic thyroid cancer was higher in frontier versus urban patients (15.5 vs. 7.1 per 1000, p < 0.01). When compared to urban patients, rural and frontier patients were more often lost to follow-up (odds ratio [OR] 1.69 [confidence interval, CI 1.54-1.85], and OR 3.03 [CI 1.89-5.26], respectively) and had higher disease-specific mortality (OR 1.18 [CI 1.07-1.30], and OR 1.92 [CI 1.22-2.77], respectively). Rural and frontier residence was independently associated with being lost to follow-up, suggesting that it is a key driver of disparities. Conclusion: Compared to their urban counterparts, rural and frontier patients with thyroid cancer present with later-stage disease and experience higher disease-specific mortality. They also are more often lost to follow-up, which presents an opportunity for targeted outreach to reduce the observed disparities in outcomes.