A Geospatial Analysis of the Availability, Distribution, and Accessibility of Neurosurgical Facilities, Workforce, and Infrastructure in Nigeria; and Projection Towards 2050.

OBJECTIVE: There has been a modest but progressive increase in the neurosurgical workforce, training, and service delivery in Nigeria in the last 2 decades. However, these resources are unevenly distributed. This study aimed to quantitatively assess the availability and distribution of neurosurgical resources in Nigeria while projecting the needed workforce capacity up to 2050. METHODS: An online survey of Nigerian neurosurgeons and residents assessed the country's neurosurgical infrastructure, workforce, and resources. The results were analyzed descriptively, and geospatial analysis was used to map their distribution. A projection model was fitted to predict workforce targets for 2022-2050. RESULTS: Out of 86 neurosurgery-capable health facilities, 65.1% were public hospitals, with only 17.4% accredited for residency training. Dedicated hospital beds and operating rooms for neurosurgery make up only 4.0% and 15.4% of the total, respectively. The population disease burden is estimated at 50.2 per 100,000, while the operative coverage was 153.2 cases per neurosurgeon. There are currently 132 neurosurgeons and 114 neurosurgery residents for a population of 218 million (ratio 1:1.65 million). There is an annual growth rate of 8.3%, resulting in a projected deficit of 1113 neurosurgeons by 2030 and 1104 by 2050. Timely access to neurosurgical care ranges from 21.6% to 86.7% of the population within different timeframes. CONCLUSIONS: Collaborative interventions are needed to address gaps in Nigeria's neurosurgical capacity. Investments in training, infrastructure, and funding are necessary for sustainable development and optimized outcomes.

Dermatology workforce projections in the United States, 2021 to 2036.

BACKGROUND: There has been a growing imbalance between supply of dermatologists and demand for dermatologic care. To best address physician shortages, it is important to delineate supply and demand patterns in the dermatologic workforce. The goal of this study was to explore dermatology supply and demand over time. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of workforce supply and demand projections for dermatologists from 2021 to 2036 using data from the Health Workforce Simulation Model from the National Center for Health Workforce Analysis. Estimates for total workforce supply and demand were summarized in aggregate and stratified by rurality. Scenarios with status quo demand and improved access were considered. RESULTS: Projected total supply showed a 12.45% increase by 2036. Total demand increased 12.70% by 2036 in the status quo scenario. In the improved access scenario, total supply was inadequate for total demand in any year, lagging by 28% in 2036. Metropolitan areas demonstrated a relative supply surplus up to 2036; nonmetropolitan areas had at least a 157% excess in demand throughout the study period. In 2021 adequacy was 108% and 39% adequacy for metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas, respectively; these differences were projected to continue through 2036. CONCLUSIONS: The findings suggest that the dermatology physician workforce is inadequate to meet the demand for dermatologic services in nonmetropolitan areas. Furthermore, improved access to dermatologic care would bolster demand and especially exacerbate workforce inadequacy in nonmetropolitan areas. Continued efforts are needed to address health inequities and ensure access to quality dermatologic care for all.

The changing psychiatry workforce in Australia: Still lacking in rural and remote regions.

INTRODUCTION: There is a long standing and worsening shortage of psychiatrists in Australia particularly in rural areas. The majority of psychiatrists work in major cities. OBJECTIVE: To identify recent trends in the Australian rural psychiatrist workforce compared with the metropolitan workforce. DESIGN: We descriptively analysed population-level data from the National Health Workforce Data Set (NHWDS), the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW) and the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). A descriptive analysis of the numbers (count) and gender of psychiatrists from 1995 to 2022 working in Australia was conducted. For the period 2013 to 2022, we analysed for rurality, gender, years' experience, hours worked, Medicare-subsidised services provided and proportions of Specialist International Medical Graduates (SIMG) by sex, with a focus on the rural workforce. For international comparison, psychiatrist numbers were obtained for other OECD countries. The number of psychiatrists working in Australia, as per NHWDS and AIHW, was quantified. We analysed trends in demographics, hours worked and rurality of psychiatrists working in Australia in a serial cross-sectional design. FINDINGS: Most psychiatrists are maldistributed to major cities, while outer regional and remote areas have few resident psychiatrists. Outer regional New South Wales (NSW) and South Australia (SA) have the lowest numbers of psychiatrists per capita. The full-time equivalent (FTE) of psychiatrists per 100 000 has increased from 12.6 in 2000 to 15.2 in 2022. However, the average hours worked by psychiatrists has declined. In total, available psychiatrist hours worked per 100 000 population has increased by 6.1% since the beginning of the millennium. DISCUSSION: Rural areas in NSW and SA have the greatest shortage of psychiatrists. Specialist International Medical Graduates and females (43% of the overall workforce) are the predominant workforce in rural areas. Although Medicare-subsidised services per 1000 people have increased in rural areas, they remain lower than for those living in major cities. CONCLUSION: There remains an acute shortage of psychiatrists in many regional and remote areas of Australia, with an increasing proportion of SIMGs and females working in these areas, in the context of future increased demand.

En el camino de la equidad de género: Análisis de la implementación del nuevo régimen de licencias familiares para el personal de la administración pública: Más derechos para cuidar en el Gobierno de la Ciudad

Con el objetivo de ser una administración pública igualitaria desde la perspectiva de género, el Gobierno de la Ciudad de Buenos Aires se propuso en 2018 reformar el régimen de licencias para cuidar que rigen para el personal de su administración. Se decidió innovar y cambiar las reglas del juego para que la responsabilidad de cuidar no recaiga desproporcionadamente sobre las mujeres. A nivel global, existe una gran cantidad de evidencia que indica que la maternidad y la crianza, cuando recaen únicamente sobre la mujer, afectan negativamente su autonomía económica y sus oportunidades de progreso. A través de un nuevo esquema de licencias de embarazo, nacimiento, adopción y cuidado de terceros, en la Ciudad se intenta garantizar más derechos para promover mayor igualdad de género y un mejor desarrollo de la niñez. El documento que aquí se presenta cuenta el proceso de diseño y la implementación del nuevo esquema de licencias.(AU)

The Current State of Nursing.

Workforce issues, challenges, and opportunities.

National Trends in Gender Diversity Among Trainees and Practicing Physicians in Otolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery in Canada.

Importance: Monitoring the evolution of gender diversity within medicine is essential to understanding the medical workforce and anticipating its future. Objective: To evaluate gender distribution and trends among trainees and practicing physicians in the field of otolaryngology-head and neck surgery (OHNS) across Canada. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cross-sectional study collected demographic data on the Canadian population, medical students, resident physicians, fellows, practicing physicians, and full-time professors from the following publicly available databases: the Canadian Post-MD Education Registry, the Canadian Medical Education Statistics from the Association of Faculties of Medicine of Canada, the Canadian Medical Association Masterfile, the Canadian Resident Matching Service archives, and the Canadian Institute for Health Information from 2000 to 2019. Information about the gender distribution in leadership positions and fellowships was obtained through publicly available websites where gender was either listed or assigned by authors. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcomes were the proportion of women in OHNS and the evolution of gender diversity over time. Results: In 2019, 65 of 155 of OHNS trainees were female (41.9%), whereas female representation among all surgical trainees combined was 1225 of 2496 (49.1%). Female OHNS trainees and practicing physicians are underrepresented despite a 13.3% increase in female trainees and a 14.3% increase in female staff physicians from 2000 to 2019. Proportionally fewer female graduates pursued a fellowship during a 10-year period compared with their male counterparts, with otology and neurotology having the lowest female representation (6 of 27 [22.2%]). A minimal increase occurred in the number of women holding academic leadership positions (eg, 4 of 13 residency training programs had a previous or current female director). Conclusions and Relevance: Despite the overall increase in the representation of women in the field of OHNS in Canada, these findings suggest that persistent gender gaps remain with respect to academic leadership positions and fellowship training. Continuous monitoring of the surgical workforce is important to highlight and address gender disparities within OHNS.

Confronting the Workforce Tsunami: Nonnegotiable Tactics to Reverse the Exodus of RNs.

The sobering facts are clear: hospitals and health systems are facing a severe nursing shortage, with safe inpatient staffing approaching near-crisis levels. Safely staffing inpatient care is challenging. Stopping the exodus of nurses from acute care must be prioritized by the entire C-suite, with the chief nurse executive at the center of all decisions. Beyond aggressive retention strategies, different in-kind solutions to address the practice environment are nonnegotiable and help address nursing concerns about continued hospital employment.

Increased labor losses and decreased adaptation potential in a warmer world.

Working in hot and potentially humid conditions creates health and well-being risks that will increase as the planet warms. It has been proposed that workers could adapt to increasing temperatures by moving labor from midday to cooler hours. Here, we use reanalysis data to show that in the current climate approximately 30% of global heavy labor losses in the workday could be recovered by moving labor from the hottest hours of the day. However, we show that this particular workshift adaptation potential is lost at a rate of about 2% per degree of global warming as early morning heat exposure rises to unsafe levels for continuous work, with worker productivity losses accelerating under higher warming levels. These findings emphasize the importance of finding alternative adaptation mechanisms to keep workers safe, as well as the importance of limiting global warming.

Modelling long-term COVID-19 impacts on the U.S. workforce of 2029.

While ensuring employment opportunities is critical for global progress and stability, workers are now subject to several disruptive trends, including automation, rapid changes in technology and skill requirements, and transitions to low-carbon energy production. Yet, these trends seem almost insignificant compared to labor impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. While much has been written about the pandemic's short-term impacts, this study analyzes anticipated long-term impacts on the labor force of 2029 by comparing original 2029 labor projections to special COVID-adjusted projections recently published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Results show that future demand for nearly every type of labor skill and knowledge will increase, while the nature of work shifts from physical to more cognitive activities. Of the nearly three million jobs projected to disappear by 2029 due to COVID, over 91% are among workers without a bachelor's degree. Among workers with a degree demand shifts primarily from business-related degrees to computer and STEM degrees. Results further show that the socialness of labor, which is important for both innovation and productivity, increases in many more industries than it decreases. Finally, COVID will likely accelerate the adoption of teleworking and slightly decrease the rate of workforce automation. These impacts, combined with a shift to more cognitive worker activities, will likely impact the nature of workforce health and safety with less focus on physical injuries and more on illnesses related to sedentary lifestyles. Overall, results suggest that future workers will need to engage more often in training and skill acquisition, requiring life-long learning and skill maintenance strategies.

Workforce Trends in Spinal Surgery: Geographic Distribution and Primary Specialty Characteristics from 2012 to 2017.

OBJECTIVE: Although both neurosurgeons and orthopedic surgeons specialize in spinal care, it is not clear how this increased demand for spine surgeons has affected these fields. In this study, we aim to characterize the total number, geographic distribution, and procedural rate of laminectomies of spine surgeons by their primary specialty from 2012 to 2017. METHODS: Neurosurgical and orthopedic data from 2012 to 2017 were obtained from the Medicare Provider Utilization Database. The databases were filtered by the primary specialty to include "Neurosurgeons" and "Orthopedic surgery." To select specifically for spine surgeons, the 203 Healthcare Common Procedure Coding System codes relating to spinal procedures were chosen as additional filters. RESULTS: Between 2012 and 2017, the total number of spine surgeons in the United States increased by 9.6% from 3,861 to 4,241 total surgeons. The South experienced the largest percentage increase in spine surgeons from 1,584 surgeons in 2012 to 1,769 in 2017 (11.7%). Over this 5-year span, neurosurgeons performed a greater share of both cervical and lumbar laminectomies, but orthopedic spine surgeons saw a greater increase in procedural growth (+87.2% cervical and +16.7% lumbar). CONCLUSIONS: There is relatively slow growth in the workforce of spinal surgery, with orthopedic spine specialists outpacing the growth seen in neurosurgical spine. This growth is seen at different rates across different regions in the U.S., with the South experiencing the highest rate of growth. Finally, although neurologic surgery performs more laminectomies in both the lumbar and cervical region, orthopedic surgeons are quickly increasing their proportion of performed procedures.

Considerations for acute care staffing during a pandemic.

The increase in interconnectedness of the global population has enabled a highly transmissible virus to spread rapidly around the globe in 2020. The COVID-19 (Coronavirus Disease 2019) pandemic has led to physical, social, and economic repercussions of previously unseen proportions. Although recommendations for pandemic preparedness have been published in response to previous viral disease outbreaks, these guidelines are primarily based on expert opinion and few of them focus on acute care staffing issues. In this review, we discuss how working in acute care medicine during a pandemic can affect the physical and mental health of medical and nursing staff. We provide ideas for limiting staff shortages and creating surge capacity in acute care settings, and strategies for sustainability that can help hospitals maintain adequate staffing throughout their pandemic response.

Trends in the nephrologist workforce in South Africa (2002-2017) and forecasting for 2030.

BACKGROUND: The growing global health burden of kidney disease is substantial and the nephrology workforce is critical to managing it. There are concerns that the nephrology workforce appears to be shrinking in many countries. This study analyses trends in South Africa for the period 2002-2017, describes current training capacity and uses this as a basis for forecasting the nephrology workforce for 2030. METHODS: Data on registered nephrologists for the period 2002 to 2017 was obtained from the Health Professions Council of South Africa and the Colleges of Medicine of South Africa. Training capacity was assessed using data on government-funded posts for nephrologists and nephrology trainees, as well as training post numbers (the latter reflecting potential training capacity). Based on the trends, the gap in the supply of nephrologists was forecast for 2030 based on three targets: reducing the inequalities in provincial nephrologist densities, reducing the gap between public and private sector nephrologist densities, and international benchmarking using the Global Kidney Health Atlas and British Renal Society recommendations. RESULTS: The number of nephrologists increased from 53 to 141 (paediatric nephrologists increased from 9 to 22) over the period 2002-2017. The density in 2017 was 2.5 nephrologists per million population (pmp). In 2002, the median age of nephrologists was 46 years (interquartile range (IQR) 39-56 years) and in 2017 the median age was 48 years (IQR 41-56 years). The number of female nephrologists increased from 4 to 43 and the number of Black nephrologists increased from 3 to 24. There have been no nephrologists practising in the North West and Mpumalanga provinces and only one each in Limpopo and the Northern Cape. The current rate of production of nephrologists is eight per year. At this rate, and considering estimates of nephrologists exiting the workforce, there will be 2.6 nephrologists pmp in 2030. There are 17 government-funded nephrology trainee posts while the potential number based on the prescribed trainer-trainee ratio is 72. To increase the nephrologist density of all provinces to at least the level of KwaZulu-Natal (2.8 pmp), which has a density closest to the country average, a projected 72 additional nephrologists (six per year) would be needed by 2030. Benchmarking against the 25th centile (5.1 pmp) of upper-middle-income countries (UMICs) reported in the Global Kidney Health Atlas would require the training of an additional eight nephrologists per year. CONCLUSIONS: South Africa has insufficient nephrologists, especially in the public sector and in certain provinces. A substantial increase in the production of new nephrologists is required. This requires an increase in funded training posts and posts for qualified nephrologists in the public sector. This study has estimated the numbers and distribution of nephrologists needed to address provincial inequalities and achieve realistic nephrologist density targets.

Adapting to Racial Trends in the U.S. Population.

Nurse leaders call for more diversity in nursing school students and faculty.

The evolving sex, race, and ethnic composition of the surgical workforce: North Carolina is a bellwether of national change.

BACKGROUND: North Carolina, as a state with a significant Black population and fast-growing Hispanic population, serves as bellwether of demographic changes nationally and the challenges facing the nation to recruit and retain a general surgery workforce that mirrors the population. METHODS: Annual licensure data from the North Carolina Medical Board were analyzed between 2004 and 2019. Physicians self-reporting a specialty of abdominal surgery, critical care surgery, colon and rectal surgery, general surgery, trauma surgery, proctology, and surgical oncology were categorized as general surgeons. RESULTS: Female surgeons made the most gains from 2004, at just 8% of the workforce in 2004 to 26% of the workforce in 2019. Over the same period, Black surgeons increased from just 5% to 6% of the workforce, with those gains largely represented by Black female surgeons. Almost half of North Carolina's Black physicians are aged 46 and 55 and will be nearing retirement in the coming decade. Nearly two-thirds (64%) of Hispanic general surgeons were 45 or younger, and one-third of these young surgeons were international medical graduates. CONCLUSION: Although the general surgery workforce in North Carolina is slowly diversifying, growth in the Black surgeon workforce has stagnated in the last 15 years at levels much lower than their representation in the population. More research is needed on the individual and life course phenomena that drive this underrepresentation.